politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “cunning plan” for the Richmond Park by-election

“The man’s a disgrace. His office is just along the corridor from mine and I never see him. He obviously doesn’t want to be an MP.
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Is Goldsmith unpopular in Parliament?
Of course Goldsmith's majority will be reduced. In what sense does he become a lame duck, and if so, how does this actually help Labour?
I honestly don't give a stuff - if the LDs weren't in with a teeny chance, we wouldn't be doing this.
And LDs are NoWhere Influence Party in any context.
There are towels on the floor of my local swimming baths that are less wet. He is so laid- back and flat he would make a pretty good runway himself.
But then again I didn't get how Owen Smith was in with a shot at winning.
Richmond Park isn't the ideal constituency to try to play the class card.
The question is which other companies and sectors will they do this for.
It might not be hard Brexit, of course the point that we might well be paying Nissan and others to do things they were already doing for free is another discussion.
Anyway, with the economic news today, the seat got a far bit more distant for the LibDems.
The cunning plan would surely be not to stand.
Not to "remove a Tory MP" as above, but to fuel the narrative of an embattled government which cannot easily pass legislation.
With Torys and UKIP not standing, Labour can write off Richmond as a sham election inspired by Tory infighting and hence not worth contesting.
And Labour have nothing to fear from one more LD MP. It's a win win.
Or it would be if Labour wanted to prevent Brexit or indeed return to government.
But I'm doubtful it wants to do either.
What's clear is that many left-of-centre activists and chattering-classes types want to still hold the campaign against him. The question is the extent to which this extends to the general public. Don in the article notes that some Greens backed Goldsmith for mayor. I don't suppose that many of their equivalents in the 1960s were supportive of Griffiths - which gives a measure of the taint by association being attempted. My guess would still be that the uproar is from the professionally-outraged looking for evidence to appall them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Jones_(trade_unionist)
If Goldsmith gets in by 1 vote, he will have a 20,000 majority in 2020 as the official Con candidate.
His mayoral campaign was horribly anaemic and revealed he had neither energy, charisma, or brains. And his resignation looks like a big flounce.
There will some in Richmond who held their nose during the mayoralty or voted for Zac for reasons of local loyalty. But I think there'll be a fair few this time who think, nah - I'm not going to waste my time again with him.
I still think he'll win though.
This is also good news, march of the exporters, pound finding its natural level, blah, blah.
I've zero time for him.
Gwinnett County updates wait times at its advance polling locations (3 currently, 2 more opening next week) every hour online. I'm off to vote at the lowest wait time location (about 30 minutes).
Fpt:
Big GDP figures - and credit (I believe) to Nunu, of this parish, who predicted 0.6 in Q3 weeks after the referendum, when everyone else expected zero growth, or worse
Yes that was me, although I did put a caveat that by the first revision GDP will be revised upwards to 0.6%, so we shall see
Although it is clear the economists don't ever leave their ivory towers.
UKIP backing Zac Goldsmith in by-election
Oh, Ho!
I'm not sure what it means, it might be a good thing. Perhaps other MPs will fancy a stint as independents.
Someone should ask Zac, whether he plans to stand as the GE.
The Corbyn/McDonnell People's Brexit will actually be a culturally Marxist Lexit which couldn't be further from the British people. May's Banker's Brexit will be for Bankers but will be astutely socially conservative. Nissan suggests Corporate Welfare but delivered in an exquisite tie die. Blue Labour and Red UKIP running together in the wash.
As we head towards #Mayday I recall wise words. " You can't buck the market. " Nissan is the kind of globalisation you can marry with protectionism. It's an iconic site. Sunderland was the Ground Zero of Brexit. It can have it's Cake and Eat it. Most places won't be be able to. To govern is to choose. It can only be delayed so long.
This week is half term where I live so I would have thought the trendy teachers (if there are any) would be out in numbers.
Mr. Mark, indeed, before my time.
That's rather sad. Whilst Mosley deserves censure for his censorious attitudes towards the press he did show a good deal of sense when it came to safety in F1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhyxAHCzq2k
Which is slightly amusing since Bishopsgate, was taken over by Fortis and is now Ageas INSURANCE.
(The mergers and acquisitions/ rebranding of Insurance companies/ Lloyds Syndicates in the UK are numerous. Without trying, I can think of about 40 that have gone/ merged/ been bought out in my career.)
This is brutal -- Clinton wins with just safe and likely states, doesn't even need leaners.
I was operated on several times by Prof Watkins, and met a fair few 1990s-era F1 drivers through him.
I am F1 engineered.
(He is also a massive hero of mine. RIP, Sid, I hope the salmon are biting and the whisky's plentiful).
(PS. I voted Labour at GE2015)
(PPS. Yes I do work, part-time)
Tarmac is for supermarket car parks, not if you go off-track on an F1 circuit.
Only two more races to go after this weekend. Hmm.
I think not even Corbyn is stupid enough to think this is a good strategy.
His picture should appear opposite wanker in the dictionary.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahjewell/the-parisian-butt-plug-christmas-tree-has-been-destroyed?utm_term=.irNQqrqp8#.jvdxava97
Incidentally, checking the mods for PS4 on Bethesda net. No eat/drink/sleep yet, but realistic carry weight and 'hardcore' [more realistic damage] mods are up.
I'll still probably wait, as £34 for a remaster is excessive (and I want to play XCOM 2), but it's nice to see those sorts of things are available.
Just back from a day on the road in Richmond Park.
Some thoughts:
Brexit fires people up more than the runway.
Labour will vote LibDem big time.
There will be a differential turnout on December 1st.
The anti Brexit people, who are fired up, will come out in larger numbers than the pro Zac people, who aren't.
Accordingly I am adjusting my estimate on a LibDem win from 36% to 50%. It would be higher if UKIP hadn't sided with Zac, which will give him a couple of thousand.
I think the Ladbrokes bet of 7/2 on a LibDem majority of <2,500 is good value and I've taken it.
brexitbreakfast in the hotel before his speech this morning! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/27/labours-john-mcdonnell-mixes-up-brexit-and-breakfast-three-times/- what about Roger?
Vanilla VI > Vanilla V for sure, but I'm still not sure if Vanilla VI > Expanded V. The AI still doesn't know how to fight a war for one.
Are you today's fun sponge pedant?
Bring it to consoles, damnit!