politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-ele

Cyclefree said:

Another earthquake in central Italy, centred on Ussito and affecting Rome and with the tremors felt in Naples.

I worry about an earthquake / Vesuvius eruption combination.

There was a big cyberattack last week too, hitting Twitter, Paypal, Netflix, etc.

Meanwhile the British press keeps on saying the Russian aircraft carrier is rusty and puffs out lots of diesel smoke.

"Keep calm and carry on".

ThreeQuidder said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Why do you want to discriminate against non-Europeans?

Because he and Jobabob are unreconstructed racists.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.

A small minority want

How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

In the public sector I was reliant on HR to sort out the paperwork on recruitment. They have been decimated. Christ knows how much more complicated and convoluted the whole process will be with these madcap ideas thrown into the mix.

But...I feel particularly sorry for the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators who rely on access to labour, free markets, and liberalism. The ideas that May is contemplating is worthy of the Stasi. Bureaucracy and form after form.

I'm a lefty and I can see the kind of problems we are encountering. Surely it shouldn't be left to people like me to champion free market capitalism?

Well

Job offers are easy to get, so not going to make a difference to the numbers.

Employment rates for EU migrants are very high...

At the moment though EU migrants can come to the UK to live and claim benefits and look for a job without even having an offer first. As I said about 25% of the country ie hardcore Leavers, will not be happy and will provide the base for a revived Paul Nuttall led UKIP and the likes of Tyson and JobaBob and hardcore Remainers will not be happy either as it compromises free movement and will provide the base for the LD vote but 2/3 of the country or so I would say will accept such a proposal to try and get a trade deal from the EU

Few do. Most step straight off the bus and into work. Initially at entry level jobs but often getting promoted very quickly.

If this is the plan then there is going to be the square root of bugger all change in immigration, and one wonders what the point of Brexit was.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellowd will manage that.

A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being

How rigmarole

New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

None rest? Pfft.

it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.

I'm aAsia will provide the next great world city, not Europe, not America.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.

Not until non-Chinese people want to start living there in great numbers and are able to do so.

Yes, it will take a while. 20-30 years. But I do think it will happen. China will be the dominant global power, economically, and a huge cultural force within Asia. It must have a world city. My bet is Shanghai?

If not, then Hong Kong.

Being a world city is not easy, though. It needs a level of liveability, freedom of expression, rule of law, free movement of capital, the ability to get round relatively easy, a strong and varied cultural scene, big sports brands, a wide number of distinct communities, and so on. Shanghai is very Chinese and it is hard to see it not staying that way. New York is very different tot he rest of the US, London is very different to the rest of the UK, Shanghai is another big Chinese city - albeit one that is more connected to the rest of the world. I can't think of any other cities that begin to stand out from their surroundings and their countries like NY and London do. Maybe Singapore has a chance because it is a city-state, but it is very focused on Asian values, rather than world ones.

Aussie movie "Wake in Fright" on Film 4.

Barnesian said:

Scott_P said:

Yes, Dan, I am sure all the people who wanted to "take back control" had massive bonuses for Big Pharma in mind...

https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/791399249904795648

Pulpstar and I own a part of Glaxo. I view it as a hedge,

This news has already been reflected in the share price tbh ^^;

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.

A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being

How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

If you can come to a place as a tourist, get a job and then apply for a visa quickly without having to leave the country it's going to be fine. If you have to apply from home, fly in for an interview and then go back home to get your visa it will be hugely damaging.

Many of the nativists who are driving all this want the latter, or no immigration at all.

Witness the deranged post from Black Rook above - a man who says we must "prove" jobs cannot be filled by domestic workers before we offer them to foreigners.

It is this we are dealing with.

We can only hope a level of sense prevails. Keep Fox, Johnson, Davis etc well away from any of this. Let the grown-ups deal with it.

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Bernie Sanders and one of the other bods don't count as Democrats here I think. What are you backing/laying ?

There are two independents who caucus with the Democrats - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - so the Democrats plus independents need to total 53+ to satisfy Democrat majority control according to the Betfair rules.

Nate Silver currently has the chance of Democrats (incl independents) having 53+ as 21.9% i.e. 4.57 in Betfair speak. On Betfair, it is currently 2.2 to 2.68 so it is a definite lay. Perhaps punters don't really understand the rules.

However, as always, DYOR.

Indeed, they need 53 unless either of the independents return to the fold. The NY Times model makes it 11.5% or so i.e about 8.6 in betfair terms.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

I have laid £1150 @ 2.44 so far.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.

The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

The one restriction Blair did impose was on welfare claims but obviously Eastern Europeans were going to come in large numbers to a nation with a gdp per capita several times theirs, welfare claim or not. Dubai is also only a small emirate in a desert with significant capacity to expand, in any case the UAE does provide significant subsidised housing to low income residents

Sky news

"The head of the World Trade Organisation has vowed to ensure Britain will not face a trade "vacuum or a disruption", however tough its exit from the European Union.

Roberto Azevedo said that he did not believe the Brexit vote was "anti-trade" and dismissed fears that Britain could suffer a sudden seizure of trade during or after its negotiations with the EU."

Meh...what does he know huh?.......oh wait !

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-will-not-cause-uk-trade-disruption-wto-boss-10632803

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

The Brexiteers' manifesto in two simple words.

MP_SE said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.

A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being

How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

NY has a talent pool of 300 million to draw from visa-free. We recruit in Hong Kong and it is very difficult because of the immigration restrictions. Finding people that specialise in our area and can write about it in good English takes months at a time.

Quite so. I have been hiring for the most junior role in our business for two months.

Of course you have.

But as he is only offering 5p for the job, you can see why Jobabob might struggle....

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellow Leavers who literally want every.

A small minority want

How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

Obviously, people like Theresa May, or dare I say HYUFD (I could be wrong)., have done little recruitment in their time.

Well

Job offers are easy to get, so not going to make a difference to the numbers.

Employment rates for EU migrants are very high...

At the moment though EU migrants can come to the UK to live and claim benefits and look for a job without even having an offer first. As I said about 25% of the country ie hardcore Leavers, will not be happy and will provide the base for a revived Paul Nuttall led UKIP and the likes of Tyson and JobaBob and hardcore Remainers will not be happy either as it compromises free movement and will provide the base for the LD vote but 2/3 of the country or so I would say will accept such a proposal to try and get a trade deal from the EU

Few do. Most step straight off the bus and into work. Initially at entry level jobs but often getting promoted very quickly.

If this is the plan then there is going to be the square root of bugger all change in immigration, and one wonders what the point of Brexit was.

You cannot step off the bus unless you have a job offer first under this proposal. It is as good a compromise as May can give given the stubbornness of the EU to try and get a trade deal, if they refuse and it goes to WTO terms obviously further, yet tighter immigration controls can then be imposed if it fails to get immigration down

MP_SE said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html

I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.

A small minority want migrants to leave and effectively end all immigration but even most of those who want immigration controlled do not want that. Her argument is requiring a job offer is more rigorous and effective than a points system, we shall see. As for a trade agreement, May will propose a job offer requirement and agree any trade deal the EU are willing to do based on that, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being

How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole

New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

NY has a talent pool of 300 million to draw from visa-free. We recruit in Hong Kong and it is very difficult because of the immigration restrictions. Finding people that specialise in our area and can write about it in good English takes months at a time.

Quite so. I have been hiring for the most junior role in our business for two months.

Of course you have.

Er, I have. Finally hired (a foreigner) this week.

tyson said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Exactly...tough shit.

You take a care home in Blackpool relying on minimum wage Eastern European girls who do a fantastic job...knowing full well that there are not the people who will wipe the arses of our demented old people for that kind of money.

Tough shit on those care homes who will have to close, or just recruit shit staff. Tough shit on the old people who have to live in those homes in the future.

I can think of countless examples of how recent Eastern European migration transformed our country for the better.

Tough shit when our country will lose their contributions to our economy.

Tough shit. You said it.

And I can tell you pal of poor unskilled Eastern European migration to the area I live ,so don't go there on thinking everything is alright with mass poor Eastern European immigration.

Says the Guy living in Italy - yes tough shit.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.

The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Talking of cities, I am in Vancouver currently and it is very multi-racial and, on the face of it, seems extremely successful at it. I went to see the Canucks v the Senators ice hockey game last night and the number of Chinese and Indian (Sikh) fans there was very noticeable - a far higher proportion of ethnic minority supporters than you'd see at a football game in the UK. That said, every single player was white - which you wouldn't see at a football game in the UK, of course.

My brother lived in Vancouver for a decade. Big issues with property prices. Lot of resentment at incoming Chinese.

Yep - they have just introduced a special tax on non-resident property owners. Apparently, it is calming things down a little and forcing buyers to look elsewhere (prices in Toronto are going up now as a result, I was told). It's a stunning town. From my hotel I can look across the harbour to the mountains. There are houses on the slopes. It looks a little like Hong Kong.

Andrew said:

Roger said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html

That's classic over-fitting.

It's a pile of arse.

http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-model-full-version/

If Trump wins it won't prove his model.

If Clinton wins, he'll change his model for 2020.

And it'll still be arse.

tyson said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.

The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.

90%, sure. But the 10% who come to abuse the system spoil it for all.

Why shouldn't countries be able to discriminate in favour of their own citizens

Jobabob said:

@Tyson @SeanT

Quite right. Weird how once libertarian rightwingers have suddenly become defenders of government meddling and snooping in the affairs of private businesses.

Chickens coming home to roost about the consequences of awakening the left-nativist anti-immigration dragon with their petty nationalist project.

Not so weird at all. Most right wingers think nation-states are a good thing, and so are prepared to accept restrictions on immigration. People who think the way you do see nation states as a bad thing, and welcome free movement as a way of breaking them up.

People don't just look at things in economic terms.

Tissue_Price said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Bernie Sanders and one of the other bods don't count as Democrats here I think. What are you backing/laying ?

There are two independents who caucus with the Democrats - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - so the Democrats plus independents need to total 53+ to satisfy Democrat majority control according to the Betfair rules.

Nate Silver currently has the chance of Democrats (incl independents) having 53+ as 21.9% i.e. 4.57 in Betfair speak. On Betfair, it is currently 2.2 to 2.68 so it is a definite lay. Perhaps punters don't really understand the rules.

However, as always, DYOR.

Indeed, they need 53 unless either of the independents return to the fold. The NY Times model makes it 11.5% or so i.e about 8.6 in betfair terms.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

I have laid £1150 @ 2.44 so far.

Thanks for the heads-up!

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Bernie Sanders and one of the other bods don't count as Democrats here I think. What are you backing/laying ?

There are two independents who caucus with the Democrats - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - so the Democrats plus independents need to total 53+ to satisfy Democrat majority control according to the Betfair rules.

Nate Silver currently has the chance of Democrats (incl independents) having 53+ as 21.9% i.e. 4.57 in Betfair speak. On Betfair, it is currently 2.2 to 2.68 so it is a definite lay. Perhaps punters don't really understand the rules.

However, as always, DYOR.

Indeed, they need 53 unless either of the independents return to the fold. The NY Times model makes it 11.5% or so i.e about 8.6 in betfair terms.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

I have laid £1150 @ 2.44 so far.

Thanks for the heads-up!

Happy to let some more pb money straighten this up a bit.

Tissue_Price said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Since I'm probably personally extended enough on this market, would anyone care to price up Democratic majority control of the Senate subject to these rules?

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the total 100 Senate seats as a result of the 34 seats to be contended at the 2016 US Senate elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Bernie Sanders and one of the other bods don't count as Democrats here I think. What are you backing/laying ?

There are two independents who caucus with the Democrats - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - so the Democrats plus independents need to total 53+ to satisfy Democrat majority control according to the Betfair rules.

Nate Silver currently has the chance of Democrats (incl independents) having 53+ as 21.9% i.e. 4.57 in Betfair speak. On Betfair, it is currently 2.2 to 2.68 so it is a definite lay. Perhaps punters don't really understand the rules.

However, as always, DYOR.

Indeed, they need 53 unless either of the independents return to the fold. The NY Times model makes it 11.5% or so i.e about 8.6 in betfair terms.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

I have laid £1150 @ 2.44 so far.

Thanks for the heads-up!

Happy to let some more pb money straighten this up a bit.

Yeah, I messed up on that market previously.

Laying neither seemed like a great idea until I read the rules....

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.

The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

Completely and absolutely agree.

One of Cameron's great failures was not addressing this. To be fair every other PM had avoided it too, but there we are.

You simply cannot have Free Movement within a continent and a universal free-at-access benefits system in one country. It invites abuse. I do not want to walk down Parkway and see chirpy Roma women selling the Big Issue, knowing they are getting tax credits - from MY taxes - because of our insanely generous system. They have come to the UK to BE homeless. They just have.

I am entirely happy to share my welfare state with hardworking Polish builders. But not their children back in Warsaw claiming UK child benefit. Etc.

If Cameron had done what Germany has blithely done - banned EU immigrants from benefits for the first five years - he'd have won his vote.

The German system doesn't allow anyone benefits, German or otherwise, until they've paid in for a year. Also very sensible.

Not quite true. Germany has unemployment insurance which is paid only to those who have contributed for the previous 12 months for a maximum period of a year but it also has a system called Hartz IV which provides a more basic benefit for those ineligible for full unemployment benefits or who have exhausted their unemployment insurance entitlement.

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

@Tyson @SeanT

Quite right. Weird how once libertarian rightwingers have suddenly become defenders of government meddling and snooping in the affairs of private businesses.

Chickens coming home to roost about the consequences of awakening the left-nativist anti-immigration dragon with their petty nationalist project.

Not so weird at all. Most right wingers think nation-states are a good thing, and so are prepared to accept restrictions on immigration. People who think the way you do see nation states as a bad thing, and welcome free movement as a way of breaking them up.

People don't just look at things in economic terms.

I am not sure that everyone who supports freedom of movement - which is a two way thing, of course - thinks that the nation state is a bad thing. Scottish nationalists want to remain part of the single market, but clearly do not think that the nation state of Scotland would be a bad idea. The same thing applies to Catalonian nationalists, who very much want to remain part of the EU, even though they want to leave Spain.

Tykejohnno said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Exactly...tough shit.

You take a care home in Blackpool relying on minimum wage Eastern European girls who do a fantastic job...knowing full well that there are not the people who will wipe the arses of our demented old people for that kind of money.

Tough shit on those care homes who will have to close, or just recruit shit staff. Tough shit on the old people who have to live in those homes in the future.

I can think of countless examples of how recent Eastern European migration transformed our country for the better.

Tough shit when our country will lose their contributions to our economy.

Tough shit. You said it.

And I can tell you pal of poor unskilled Eastern European migration to the area I live ,so don't go there on thinking everything is alright with mass poor Eastern European immigration.

Says the Guy living in Italy - yes tough shit.

So who looks after the old people in those homes when the Eastern Europeans can no longer do it? Are you happy to pay the additional tax to ensure that locals do it at a wage they can live on?

Who said the Eastern Europeans can't do it ?

We don't even know what deal we have on immigration yet,it could be a deal that you must have a job here first and then nothing changes in that sector.

If you want to end unskilled jobs for immigrants then Eastern Europeans will not be able to get jobs doing the menial work in care homes.

SeanT said:

tyson said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.

The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.

Again, Freedom of Movement dates from the ancient year of.... 2004.

Was Britain a basket-case before that? No. It was one of the most successful European economies through the 90s and into the Noughties.

And then we had the 2008 banking crash....and who did we blame? Oh yes, the migrants, oh and the Labour Government.

And then after the next slowdown which will is starting to constrict us now....who will we blame? OH yes, the EU and migrants.....

SouthamObserver said:

Tykejohnno said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Exactly...tough shit.

You take a care home in Blackpool relying on minimum wage Eastern European girls who do a fantastic job...knowing full well that there are not the people who will wipe the arses of our demented old people for that kind of money.

Tough shit on those care homes who will have to close, or just recruit shit staff. Tough shit on the old people who have to live in those homes in the future.

I can think of countless examples of how recent Eastern European migration transformed our country for the better.

Tough shit when our country will lose their contributions to our economy.

Tough shit. You said it.

And I can tell you pal of poor unskilled Eastern European migration to the area I live ,so don't go there on thinking everything is alright with mass poor Eastern European immigration.

Says the Guy living in Italy - yes tough shit.

So who looks after the old people in those homes when the Eastern Europeans can no longer do it? Are you happy to pay the additional tax to ensure that locals do it at a wage they can live on?

Who said the Eastern Europeans can't do it ?

We don't even know what deal we have on immigration yet,it could be a deal that you must have a job here first and then nothing changes in that sector.

If you want to end unskilled jobs for immigrants then Eastern Europeans will not be able to get jobs doing the menial work in care homes.

Unskilled with no jobs would do me.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

@Tyson @SeanT

Quite right. Weird how once libertarian rightwingers have suddenly become defenders of government meddling and snooping in the affairs of private businesses.

Chickens coming home to roost about the consequences of awakening the left-nativist anti-immigration dragon with their petty nationalist project.

Not so weird at all. Most right wingers think nation-states are a good thing, and so are prepared to accept restrictions on immigration. People who think the way you do see nation states as a bad thing, and welcome free movement as a way of breaking them up.

People don't just look at things in economic terms.

I am not sure that everyone who supports freedom of movement - which is a two way thing, of course - thinks that the nation state is a bad thing. Scottish nationalists want to remain part of the single market, but clearly do not think that the nation state of Scotland would be a bad idea. The same thing applies to Catalonian nationalists, who very much want to remain part of the EU, even though they want to leave Spain.

Yes, it's another PB Leaver false dichotomy - as it was the usually fair and often excellent Sean_F I let it ride. I've had far, far worse tonight...

tyson said:

SeanT said:

tyson said:

rcs1000 said:

tyson said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.

The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.

90%, sure. But the 10% who come to abuse the system spoil it for all.

Why shouldn't countries be able to discriminate in favour of their own citizens

Those 10% of benefit claimants (if that) didn't spoil it. Running a plebiscite with an ill informed population is "wot spoilt it".

I doubt very much Dubai is going to run a plebiscite on whether it restricts foreigners any time soon...well they might maybe, only if educated people can vote. I doubt any other country is going to run said plebiscite either.

Only Cameron was foolish enough to take a chance with such a thing and leave the fortunes of the country to the ill informed masses.

The problem is people are ignorant and hateful. And you play to those emotions and there's a very big prize to win. Brexit..

And there we are. The Remainer mindset. The people are too stupid, ignorant and hateful, we shall simply abjure their opinion.

Look who you are siding with. You can take Katie Hopkins and Plato. I'll take the Pope and Obama. You can take Farage and the racists, I'll take the Vice Chancellors of the British Universities and the scientists and medics. I'll take Gary Lineker, you can take Morrissey.

I'll take seanT and winston churchill to your jeremy corbyn and russell brand ;-)

Tissue_Price said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

Happy to let some more pb money straighten this up a bit.

Yes, it's our selfless public duty to rectify anomalous odds. Someone has to do it.

Well I wouldn't mind squaring my own book off a bit. I'm practically giving it away asking for £250 @ 4.4...

It's late, but your bet is effectively against a Hillary landslide isn't it?

Or am I'm being too simplistic, or even in the event of a Hillary landslide, the Dems don't get 53.

"I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that."

Isn't the amusing bit about all the immigration furore that it will probably sort itself outself for Theresa May without her having to do anything or change any rules?

I work with a gang of Polish guys that are already looking at moving to Germany / doing construction in Poland instead, because they have just had a 20% pay cut and now feel a bit uncomfortable here given all the politics here.

Is it certain that getting migration down is going to be the nighmare battle and monumental achievement of leavers/kippers dreams?
Would it be surprising if the net migration figures just resolved themselves as the most valuable/motivating workers who have been keeping inflation down in the UK and driving growth going since the Blair government quietly adopted the policy of letting in hard-working migrants to prop up our notoriously unproductive economy voted with their feet and stopped bothering to come here.

It would be not surprising if the UK was left with a net migration figure way below 100k and nobody much interested in coming here because the nation reverted to its traditional role of sick man of europe, low productivity, fairly stagflationary, low growth...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

It is racist to discriminate against non-EU people.

"EU" is not a race. Nor is it an ethnos (although arguably "European" is...but "Europe" and "EU" are not synonyms)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

It is racist to discriminate against non-EU people.

Throughout the history of the world, countries have had agreements with their neighbours to lower transactional costs.

So, there is free movement of labour between the New Zealand and Australia, and before the EU between Ireland and the UK. All countries, with the possible exceptions of the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the First World War, discriminate to some extent based upon the country of origin of potential immigrants. Why? Because it's a useful heuristic.

rcs1000 said:

All countries, with the possible exceptions of the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the First World War, discriminate to some extent based upon the country of origin of potential immigrants. Why? Because it's a useful heuristic.

Some foreigners are more foreign than others.

On an unrelated note, here's Trump live from North Carolina.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwLYk_ZJPA

rcs1000 said:

Troubleshooting a home VPN server is a complete pain, because I need to be in two places at once... And I can't even use my phone as a hotspot as EE (at least the version that comes with my work phone) blocks VPN access.

Is the main site down?

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Troubleshooting a home VPN server is a complete pain, because I need to be in two places at once... And I can't even use my phone as a hotspot as EE (at least the version that comes with my work phone) blocks VPN access.

Is the main site down?

It is for me. I can only access it via the Wordpress app.

Am on it through http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/ though I do prefer to use the main site to fill OGH's coffers!

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Troubleshooting a home VPN server is a complete pain, because I need to be in two places at once... And I can't even use my phone as a hotspot as EE (at least the version that comes with my work phone) blocks VPN access.

Is the main site down?

Oops. I installed the VPN client on the main pb server, connected it (succesfully!) to home, but didn't realise I was accidentally pulling the site down...

Now up and running! I still maintain the site is run on a server powered by a hamster

SeanT said:

Tykejohnno said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tykejohnno said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Tykejohnno said:

tyson said:

@SeanT

What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

Tough sh!t.

Exauntry will lose their contributions to our economy.

Tough shit. You said it.

And I can tell you pal of poor unskilled Eastern European migration to the area I live ,so don't go there on thinking everything is alright with mass poor Eastern European immigration.

Says the Guy living in Italy - yes tough shit.

So who looks after the old people in those homes when the Eastern Europeans can no longer do it? Are you happy to pay the additional tax to ensure that locals do it at a wage they can live on?

Who said the Eastern Europeans can't do it ?

We don't even know what deal we have on immigration yet,it could be a deal that you must have a job here first and then nothing changes in that sector.

If you want to end unskilled jobs for immigrants then Eastern Europeans will not be able to get jobs doing the menial work in care homes.

Unskilled with no jobs would do me.

Robots will do all this shit, quite soon, anyway. Literally.

So much of this debate is redundant. Uber are trialling driverless lorries. Now.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3870790/Beer-run-Self-driving-truck-goes-120-plus

Automation will also affect bankers, accountants and even doctors and lawyers too, though Bill Gates interviewed today remained optimistic saying that if robots do more of the work we will just work shorter hours and have more leisure time. We shall see. Goodnight

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Troubleshooting a home VPN server is a complete pain, because I need to be in two places at once... And I can't even use my phone as a hotspot as EE (at least the version that comes with my work phone) blocks VPN access.

Is the main site down?

Oops. I installed the VPN client on the main pb server, connected it (succesfully!) to home, but didn't realise I was accidentally pulling the site down...

Now up and running! I still maintain the site is run on a server powered by a hamster

Yeah, I accidentally bound the Apache port to the Internal (VPN) IP.

Dumb.

I'm very lucky, you know. People with my limited technical ability are very rarely given the chance to admin a site read by a few hundred thousand people every week.

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Troubleshooting a home VPN server is a complete pain, because I need to be in two places at once... And I can't even use my phone as a hotspot as EE (at least the version that comes with my work phone) blocks VPN access.

Is the main site down?

Oops. I installed the VPN client on the main pb server, connected it (succesfully!) to home, but didn't realise I was accidentally pulling the site down...

Now up and running! I still maintain the site is run on a server powered by a hamster

Yeah, I accidentally bound the Apache port to the Internal (VPN) IP.

Dumb.

I'm very lucky, you know. People with my limited technical ability are very rarely given the chance to admin a site read by a few hundred thousand people every week.

not forgetting PMs (or ex-PMs, I'm not sure if we know if May is a PBer)

dugarbandier said:

SeanT said:

Also, I'd take the musical output of Morrisey over the non-existent "legacy" of Obama, the football of Lineker, and all the vice chancellors in history.

Girlfriend in a Coma. Sublime.

BREXIT

Feel it.

BREXIT. It Is Magnificent.

Morrissey hasn't written a half decent song since the early 80s (Girlfriend in a coma? no ta)

being a preening tit can be charming in yr 20s. in yr 50s? not so much

Vauxhall and I from the 90s was as good as anything he did with the Smiths.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h55Xq0trc94

https://www.theguardian.com/books/shortcuts/2013/oct/13/penguin-classics-morrissey-autobiography

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

If someone is going to post The Smiths (or Morrissey), I feel it has to be counterbalanced with The Lesson of the Smiths:

'Epitome' rhyming with home? I'd like to think he's mocking Morrissey's autodidactical pronunciations but somehow I doubt it.

MJ Hibbert are great. Can I also recommend:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z265E7fGL_k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ts96J7HhO28

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/books/shortcuts/2013/oct/13/penguin-classics-morrissey-autobiography

Read the Amazon reviews of his book List of the Lost.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/List-Lost-Morrissey/dp/0141982969/

My favourite: " It really is as bad as they're all saying it is, and I can't think of a single good thing to say about it. I can't even finish it, and I've read Richardson's 'Clarissa'."

""List of the Lost' sees Morrissey indulging his attachment to alliteration and delight in digression describing delightful and dirty dropdead soon to be deceased gorgeous guys and gruesome girls with a touch of the long dead, dessicated, dedicated AE Housmans about it, er, where was I? Oh yes, it's a novel. But really it's just an excuse for Morrissey to play with words, like a toddler let loose in a toyshop. If you're a fan, you'll love it. If you're a fan of Morrissey's you'll naturally have put aside any critical component of your cranial continuum, because only about ten percent of what Morrissey does is very good indeed; the other ninety percent should have been consigned to the wastebasket. But then List of the Lost would only run to about eleven pages. That would be enough for me, however."

SouthamObserver said:

Talking of cities, I am in Vancouver currently and it is very multi-racial and, on the face of it, seems extremely successful at it. I went to see the Canucks v the Senators ice hockey game last night and the number of Chinese and Indian (Sikh) fans there was very noticeable - a far higher proportion of ethnic minority supporters than you'd see at a football game in the UK. That said, every single player was white - which you wouldn't see at a football game in the UK, of course.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojm74VGsZBU

rcs1000 said:

If someone is going to post The Smiths (or Morrissey), I feel it has to be counterbalanced with The Lesson of the Smiths:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktNNC0pX79M

Is that the half-man half biscuit its ok to like?

AndyJS said:

Talking of Morrissey:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/morrissey-brexit-was-magnificent/

I think that's why we're talking about him. Of course, Morrissey himself Brexited many years ago