politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why are the Lib Dems partying like it’s 1993?

foxinsoxuk said:

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

fitalass said:

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, I don't get it. What's David Herdson actually advocating?

Campaign on policies, continually. It might take longer and it might not be as effective in the short term but it builds a more resiliant base. And as a side-effect, it will make it less likely that they'd make mistakes like tuition fees. If you're more bought in to policy then you're less likely to misread the extent to which your voters backed you becase of any given one.

Excellent and thought provoking article David. It would be mistake for the Libdems to think that their very pro European position in by-elections like Whitney will resonate and bring them the kind of short term electoral success that the SNP enjoyed last year after losing the Independence Referendum in Scotland which now remains very strongly within the UK.

Like the grudge and grievance ridden SNP Government in Holyrood right now, I suspect that the Libdems will end up getting badly stung by putting the EU before the UK. In the early part of next year, the Government will finally trigger article 50 and give formal notice that the UK is leaving the EU. And the Libdems are in danger of finding themselves aligned with another anti Westminster party, the SNP and even some Labour MPs on the wrong side of the argument when the UK squares up to the EU at the negotiating table to get the best deal for the country. Expect even the most ardent of Remainers to come and show their backing for team UK as it tries to get the best Brexit deal possible.

To be seen to be siding with the EU over the UK's best interests could prove a very costly electoral mistake for the Libdems, SNP and those Labour MPs trying to pick an argument with the current Government.

Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser.

For brevity I presume you are eliding 'Europe' into 'the European Union'?

How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?

We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?

There are no tariffs or quotas on exports (apart from weapons) to the EU from the 42 Least developed countries under the Everything But Arms deal. The Cotonou agreements take this further.

JennyFreeman said:

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

JennyFreeman said:

Who are the LibDems?

Meanwhile, in real politics ... we have one of the most extraordinary elections in American history for the most important political job in the world and political betting can't muster a thread.

I wrote on that last week. Nothing of substance has changed since.

BUt, but, but Rasmussen shows a Trump lead and someone's said something on Twitter!

Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and LA Times all have Trump leading. But that's not really the point. The US election scores a 99.99999 importance relative to a Witney by-election tory hold of 0.00001.

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

fitalass said:

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, I don't get it. What's David Herdson actually advocating?

Campaign on policies, continually. It might take longer and it might not be as effective in the short term but it builds a more resiliant base. And as a side-effect, it will make it less likely that they'd make mistakes like tuition fees. If you're more bought in to policy then you're less likely to misread the extent to which your voters backed you becase of any given one.

Excellent and thought provoking article David. It would be mistake for the Libdems to think that their very pro European position in by-elections like Whitney will resonate and bring them the kind of short term electoral success that the SNP enjoyed last year after losing the Independence Referendum in Scotland which now remains very strongly within the UK.

Like the grudge and grievance ridden SNP Government in Holyrood right now, I suspect that the Libdems will end up getting badly stung by putting the EU before the UK. In the early part of next year, the Government will finally trigger article 50 and give formal notice that the UK is leaving the EU. And the Libdems are in danger of finding themselves aligned with another anti Westminster party, the SNP and even some Labour MPs on the wrong side of the argument when the UK squares up to the EU at the negotiating table to get the best deal for the country. Expect even the most ardent of Remainers to come and show their backing for team UK as it tries to get the best Brexit deal possible.

To be seen to be siding with the EU over the UK's best interests could prove a very costly electoral mistake for the Libdems, SNP and those Labour MPs trying to pick an argument with the current Government.

Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser.

For brevity I presume you are eliding 'Europe' into 'the European Union'?

How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?

We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?

rottenborough said:

JennyFreeman said:

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

JennyFreeman said:

Who are the LibDems?

e.

!

Well, i'm sticking to 538 overall view on the polls. It's a Clinton win, whatever LA Times says.

MarqueeMark said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Independent: Hillary Clinton campaign HQ evacuated after 'white substance' found. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxPi6jDA

Hopefully not on a blue dress.

"BILL!!! What the hell have you been doing again?"

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

fitalass said:

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, I don't get it. What's David Herdson actually advocating?

Campaign on policies, continually. It might take longer and it might not be as effective in the short term but it builds a more resiliant base. And as a side-effect, it will make it less likely that they'd make mistakes like tuition fees. If you're more bought in to policy then you're less likely to misread the extent to which your voters backed you becase of any given one.

Excellent and thought provoking article David. It would be mistake for the Libdems to think that their very pro European position

Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser.

For brevity I presume you are eliding 'Europe' into 'the European Union'?

How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?

We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?

There are no tariffs or quotas on exports (apart from weapons) to the EU from

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85406
"Ironically, it takes a Green MEP and the Guardian to tell the story, leaving the eurosceptics missing a trick. The MEP is a German member of the Green Party, Ska Keller, who says, "Developing countries have a gun pointed at their chest – either they sign or their market access to the EU is restricted", appalled at the way the EU brokered a trade agreement with east Africa late last year. 

In this case, she says, the gun was pointed at Kenya – more specifically, its cut flowers industry. The flower business is a lucrative one, worth more than €10bn (£7.7bn) worldwide every year, and Kenya is one of the world's largest exporters of cut stems. 

So it was a crushing blow when Europe imposed tariffs on Kenya's cut flowers in October last year, potentially making their blooms significantly more expensive than those grown on European soil. '

JennyFreeman said:

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

JennyFreeman said:

Who are the LibDems?

Meanwhile, in real politics ... we have one of the most extraordinary elections in American history for the most important political job in the world and political betting can't muster a thread.

I wrote on that last week. Nothing of substance has changed since.

BUt, but, but Rasmussen shows a Trump lead and someone's said something on Twitter!

Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and LA Times all have Trump leading. But that's not really the point. The US election scores a 99.99999 importance relative to a Witney by-election tory hold of 0.00001.

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

JennyFreeman said:

Who are the LibDems?

Meanwhile, in real politics ... we have one of the most extraordinary elections in American history for the most important political job in the world and political betting can't muster a thread.

I wrote on that last week. Nothing of substance has changed since.

BUt, but, but Rasmussen shows a Trump lead and someone's said something on Twitter!

Looking at 538, the range of probable outcomes does include a 13% chance of a Trump win, but a 43% chance of a Clinton landslide:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-there-are-4-ways-this-election-can-end-and-3-involve-clinton-winning/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Clinton takes Texas is more likely than Trump taking Pennsylvania:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-texas-opportunity-and-her-texas-problem/

Relying on wikileaks and poisoning the well of American politics doesn't seem to be going well for Trump. Humiliating defeat has never been more deserved, and looks nailed on.

A blue Texas win would earn me a nice little payout on 8th! Go girl.

YellowSubmarine said:

The Independent: Hillary Clinton campaign HQ evacuated after 'white substance' found. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxPi6jDA

scotslass said:

Uniondivie

But Fitaloss has already thought of that! She says we have to ignore the political party ratings so the SNP still in the stratosphere of 50 per cent plus does not count in her world.

JennyFreeman said:

This is no Clinton shoo-in. Doesn't mean she won't win but talk of a landslide is wild and I think Trump has a much better than 7% chance of victory: it's about 60:40 Clinton at the moment and I expect that to narrow further.

I would have thought after GE2015 and Brexit some on here would have learned their lesson. You need to listen to the mood more.

Third time lucky?

JackW said:

JennyFreeman said:

This is no Clinton shoo-in. Doesn't mean she won't win but talk of a landslide is wild and I think Trump has a much better than 7% chance of victory: it's about 60:40 Clinton at the moment and I expect that to narrow further.

I would have thought after GE2015 and Brexit some on here would have learned their lesson. You need to listen to the mood more.

Third time lucky?

Which swing states will take Trump to 270 ?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 43, but Farron can't. He opted not to dirty his hands actually doing anything in government.

fitalass said:

@foxinsoxuk, I was a passionate Remainer who got to the point of only very occasionally posting on PB in run up to the EU Referendum. I then posted on here about how gutted I was at the result, but also acknowledged that democracy had spoken and we were leaving the EU. Again like you, I agree that 'Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser'. But next year we are going to be in a very tough battle with the EU and trying very hard to get the best deal for the UK as we Brexit. But if the Libdems, SNP and some Labour MPs are seen to be siding with the EU rather than the UK in this battle, it will be electorally damaging to those parties. For the LDs to become the opposition to Tory hegemony over most of Shire and suburban Britain again, they have to at least be seen as being on the side of those voters again. Right now, they simple are not even on the same page politically.

The SNP got a bounce and did very well in the last GE after losing the Independence Referendum. But then again, that was not that surprising considering the fact that some No voters had no problem eighteen months ago voting SNP to make sure that Scotland still had a strong voice within the UK at Westminster. That the SNP have so quickly wasted this opportunity with their petty grudge and grievance politics has surprised even me, and I was pretty cynical to begin with. Willie Rennie in Scotland is now desperately trying to imitate Ruth Davidson as is Kezia Dugdale after both made a massive mistake of entertaining a more pro Independence stance last year in the wake of their parties GE defeats. A huge mistake which has cost both parties dear. But even now, they are still far more obsessed with attacking the Conservatives who are now the main opposition to the incumbent SNP Government at Holyrood. So no wonder the ever growing number of anti SNP voters are looking to the Scots Conservatives rather than the Libdems or Labour to be their voice and fight their corner against an ever increasingly unpopular SNP Government. Ignore the party polling, just watch how Sturgeon's personal ratings have fallen while Ruth Davidson's have increased right across the party spectrum.

JennyFreeman said:

Alistair said:

JennyFreeman said:

david_herdson said:

JennyFreeman said:

Who are the LibDems?

Meanwhile, in real politics ... we have one of the most extraordinary elections in American history for the most important political job in the world and political betting can't muster a thread.

Nothing of substance has changed since.

Errr David we have had a Presidential Debate in which Trump implied the result would be challenged if his rival wins. We had Michelle Obama enter the fray and Trump responding and then we had 4 tracker polls in the last 24 hours, 3 of which have Trump in the lead. We have a MSM convinced Hillary is on for a landslide with implied probabilities of 93-99% being stated.

Sometimes British political commentators do themselves few favours with Americans. Though the same can be said the other way around, the US is just a teeny-weeny bit important in world affairs.

We've had lots of threads recebtly on the election . Can't remember if we had a thread on the 11 point polling lead Hilary had in 1 poll.

Considering the relative importance of the US Presidential election vs a by-election hold by the Tories in a safe seat we're being very parochial.

The US election is dynamite and the paucity of threads on here is feeble. I've seen virtually nothing on the incredibly important Senate and House races, nothing on Governorships and zilch on state-by-state breakdowns.

"Disappointing" to be euphemistic.

CarlottaVance said:

That really helps them compete against EU subsidies......

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Theuniondivvie said:

fitalass said:

against an ever increasingly unpopular SNP Government.

Props for consistency.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/789610620467294208

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Question: suppose Brexit doesn't go too well and in 2020 the result is something like

Con 278
Lab 227
SNP 45
LD 30
DUP 11
SF 4
Plaid 3
SDLP 1
Grn 1

Does Farron:

1. Back May, despite the ideological differences and despite her loss of support;
2. Back Corbyn, despite him clearly not being up to the job and holding dangerous views;
3. Back neither and force a new election on the country?

Call for May to go, rule out a coalition and call for a national government to see us through the crisis.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

fitalass said:

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, I don't get it. What's David Herdson actually advocating?

Campaign on policies, continually. It might take longer and it might not be as effective in the short term but it builds a more resiliant base. And as a side-effect, it will make it less likely that they'd make mistakes like tuition fees. If you're more bought in to policy then you're less likely to misread the extent to which your voters backed you becase of any given one.

Excellent and thought provoking article David. It would be mistake for the Libdems to think that their very pro European position in by-elections like Whitney will resonate and bring them the kind of short term electoral success that the SNP enjoyed last year after losing the Independence Referendum in Scotland which now remains very strongly within the UK.

Like the grudge and

To be seen to be siding with the EU over the UK's best interests could prove a very costly electoral mistake for the Libdems, SNP and those Labour MPs trying to pick an argument with the current Government.

Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser.

For brevity I presume you are eliding 'Europe' into 'the European Union'?

How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?

We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?

Well if you make sure that African economies never work, it's cheaper to hire their brightest and best to work in Dr. Fox's hospital?

I don't think a trickle of doctors leaving Africa for Europe, Australasia and the US is the reason why Africa doesn't work.

I think the fact that Africa doesn't work is why the doctors leave.

JackW said:

Florida - Cherry Communications/FCPI - Sample 507 - 16-19 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

http://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll-shows-presidential-race-leaning-toward-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

foxinsoxuk said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Question: suppose Brexit doesn't go too well and in 2020 the result is something like

Con 278
Lab 227
SNP 45
LD 30
DUP 11
SF 4
Plaid 3
SDLP 1
Grn 1

Does Farron:

1. Back May, despite the ideological differences and despite her loss of support;
2. Back Corbyn, despite him clearly not being up to the job and holding dangerous views;
3. Back neither and force a new election on the country?

Call for May to go, rule out a coalition and call for a national government to see us through the crisis.

Minority government until it collapses. Probably with new leadership contests in both Lab and Con first.

Jonathan said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Question: suppose Brexit doesn't go too well and in 2020 the result is something like

Con 278
Lab 227
SNP 45
LD 30
DUP 11
SF 4
Plaid 3
SDLP 1
Grn 1

Does Farron:

1. Back May, despite the ideological differences and despite her loss of support;
2. Back Corbyn, despite him clearly not being up to the job and holding dangerous views;
3. Back neither and force a new election on the country?

Call for May to go, rule out a coalition and call for a national government to see us through the crisis.

Minority government until it collapses. Probably with new leadership contests in both Lab and Con first.

Would be interesting/ challenging for LDs if Labour were the largest party.

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

fitalass said:

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, I don't get it. What's David Herdson actually advocating?

Campaign on policies, continually. It might take longer and it might not be as effective in the short term but it builds a more resiliant base. And as a side-effect, it will make it less likely that they'd make mistakes like tuition fees. If you're more bought in to policy then you're less likely to misread the extent to which your voters backed you becase of any given one.

Excellent and thought provoking article David. It would be mistake for the Libdems to think that their very pro European position in by-elections like Whitney will resonate and bring them the kind of short term electoral success that the SNP enjoyed last year after losing the Independence Referendum in Scotland which now remains very strongly within the UK.

Like the grudge and

To be seen to be siding with the EU over the UK's best interests could prove a very costly electoral mistake for the Libdems, SNP and those Labour MPs trying to pick an argument with the current Government.

Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser.

For brevity I presume you are eliding 'Europe' into 'the European Union'?

How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?

We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?

Well if you make sure that African economies never work, it's cheaper to hire their brightest and best to work in Dr. Fox's hospital?

I don't think a trickle of doctors leaving Africa for Europe, Australasia and the US is the reason why Africa doesn't work.

I think the fact that Africa doesn't work is why the doctors leave.

I think that Africa is doing better than many on here believe. Free Trade will help it further.

A long way to go, but the prospect of China and India buying up our country 30 years ago looked implausible too.

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

fitalass said:

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, I don't get it. What's David Herdson actually advocating?

Campaign on policies, continually. It might take longer and it might not be as effective in the short term but it builds a more resiliant base. And as a side-effect, it will make it less likely that they'd make mistakes like tuition fees. If you're more bought in to policy then you're less likely to misread the extent to which your voters backed you becase of any given one.

Excellent and thought provoking article David. It would be mistake for the Libdems to think that their very pro European position in by-elections like Whitney will resonate and bring them the kind of short term electoral success that the SNP enjoyed last year after losing the Independence Referendum in Scotland which now remains very strongly within the UK.

Like the grudge and

To be seen to be siding with the EU over the UK's best interests could prove a very costly electoral mistake for the Libdems, SNP and those Labour MPs trying to pick an argument with the current Government.

Being internationalist in orientation, and open to europe is not going to be a vote loser.

For brevity I presume you are eliding 'Europe' into 'the European Union'?

How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?

We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?

Well if you make sure that African economies never work, it's cheaper to hire their brightest and best to work in Dr. Fox's hospital?

I don't think a trickle of doctors leaving Africa for Europe, Australasia and the US is the reason why Africa doesn't work.

I think the fact that Africa doesn't work is why the doctors leave.

I think that Africa is doing better than many on here believe. Free Trade will help it further.

A long way to go, but the prospect of China and India buying up our country 30 years ago looked implausible too.

Mobile internet will/has allow them to skip a century of landlines.

JWisemann said:

amongst the other well-founded criticisms of this article - im afraid to say I think Mr Herdson is my least favourite writer here - does anyone remember his certainty the Corbyn era was over ? Sorry you got some wrong info mate ! - Id like to point out that the premise that the Tories are 'popular' is based on untested polling and hasn't been borne out in any actual electoral results so far - in which they've pretty much universally done badly by comparison.

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Florida - Cherry Communications/FCPI - Sample 507 - 16-19 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

http://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll-shows-presidential-race-leaning-toward-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

Republicans will surely be relieved by the Senate numbers.

Gardenwalker said:

Great piece Mr Herdson.

I agree. Witney is all very well - but it's a tactical advance. Keep going like this and they might be back in government in something like 2525.

What they need to do is position themselves as able to partner (whether through formal coalition or some less formal arragement) with either the Tories or Labour, and the pitch to the electorate is as a moderating influence on either.

There's never been a better time. For many centrists, the Tories are vulnerable on Brexit especially. There's an opportunity for the LDs to major on this with an explicit view to seek compromise from the Tories in a future coalition or other arrangement.

On the left, Labour look extreme on both the economy and national defence. Although a Labour government currently looks unlikely, there will still be votes for an LD party seeking to temper Labour's less appealing policies.

With a national strategy of "don't let the bastards get away with it, we can be a sane and honest broker with either", and focusing on key policies which expose Tory and Lbour weakness, they could get back into the 20s in terms of seats. As it is, I tend to agree with predictions that recovery will be limited to one or two only.

Sean_F said:

I think the Lib Dems can remain very competitive in university cities, and wealthy districts that strongly supported Remain, and that's where they should focus.

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Florida - Cherry Communications/FCPI - Sample 507 - 16-19 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

http://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll-shows-presidential-race-leaning-toward-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

Republicans will surely be relieved by the Senate numbers.

Indeed so. Rubio enjoys some insulation with latino voters. However some polls have shown the race tighter and Obama's recent visit explicitly linking him to Trump will damage Rubio. The polls over the next week will be fascinating.

david_herdson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Question: suppose Brexit doesn't go too well and in 2020 the result is something like

Con 278
Lab 227
SNP 45
LD 30
DUP 11
SF 4
Plaid 3
SDLP 1
Grn 1

Does Farron:

1. Back May, despite the ideological differences and despite her loss of support;
2. Back Corbyn, despite him clearly not being up to the job and holding dangerous views;
3. Back neither and force a new election on the country?

Call for May to go, rule out a coalition and call for a national government to see us through the crisis.

Minority government until it collapses. Probably with new leadership contests in both Lab and Con first.

But *which* minority government? Either by positive action or by default, as the crucial swing vote, the Lib Dems in that situation would be picking one major party over the other and couldn't escape that fact; either "you kept the Tories in" or "you put Corbyn in".

MarkSenior said:

Interesting that it is now 90 years since the Conservatives gained a Liberal/Lib Dem seat in a parliamentary by election ( Combined English Universities 1926 )

Essexit said:

Sean_F said:

I think the Lib Dems can remain very competitive in university cities, and wealthy districts that strongly supported Remain, and that's where they should focus.

The idea of a seat made up entirely of students and academics voting Conservative is an odd one nowadays!

EDIT: meant to quote Marksenior. Can't easily correct on mobile.

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

Interesting that it is now 90 years since the Conservatives gained a Liberal/Lib Dem seat in a parliamentary by election ( Combined English Universities 1926 )

Not really surprising, since there have been very few Liberal defences while they were in government. Eastleigh was the only one during the coalition government.

Black_Rook said:

Theuniondivvie said:

fitalass said:

against an ever increasingly unpopular SNP Government.

Props for consistency.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/789610620467294208

Just as with the Lib Dem fightback, we shouldn't believe tales of the SNP decline until we see clear and consistent evidence for it. So long as the great majority of the 45%, at least, remain steadfast and refuse to move their votes (save, perhaps, for a little bit of leakage to the Greens in the Holyrood list section,) then there is no particular reason to suppose that the SNP won't remain dominant indefinitely, or at least until independence is won.

Sean_F said:

Essexit said:

Sean_F said:

I think the Lib Dems can remain very competitive in university cities, and wealthy districts that strongly supported Remain, and that's where they should focus.

The idea of a seat made up entirely of students and academics voting Conservative is an odd one nowadays!

EDIT: meant to quote Marksenior. Can't easily correct on mobile.

A ward that's made up of university workers and students would most probably be a Labour/Green marginal, today.

Pulpstar said:

England going well in the first test, anything over 200 is going to be very very hard for the Banglas to chase down.

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Time to update Osborne's borrowing record:

Predicted Borrowing
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
2016/17 surplus
Total £471bn

Actual Borrowing
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £115bn
2012/13 £123bn
2013/14 £104bn
2014/15 £96bn
2015/16 £76bn
2016/17 £45bn (6 months)
Total £696bn

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

Giving a current overall over-borrowing of £225bn.

Is it any wonder that the UK has had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years.

Is 16/17 heading to 90 ?

Income/expenses aren't evenly distributed throughout the year. I think the forecast was something like 55bn.

foxinsoxuk said:

david_herdson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Question: suppose Brexit doesn't go too well and in 2020 the result is something like

Con 278
Lab 227
SNP 45
LD 30
DUP 11
SF 4
Plaid 3
SDLP 1
Grn 1

Does Farron:

1. Back May, despite the ideological differences and despite her loss of support;
2. Back Corbyn, despite him clearly not being up to the job and holding dangerous views;
3. Back neither and force a new election on the country?

Call for May to go, rule out a coalition and call for a national government to see us through the crisis.

Minority government until it collapses. Probably with new leadership contests in both Lab and Con first.

But *which* minority government? Either by positive action or by default, as the crucial swing vote, the Lib Dems in that situation would be picking one major party over the other and couldn't escape that fact; either "you kept the Tories in" or "you put Corbyn in".

Neither. Let the largest party attempt to form a government.

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Freggles said:

PB Tory advice for other parties is always...interesting.

It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.

Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.

Question: suppose Brexit doesn't go too well and in 2020 the result is something like

Con 278
Lab 227
SNP 45
LD 30
DUP 11
SF 4
Plaid 3
SDLP 1
Grn 1

Does Farron:

1. Back May, despite the ideological differences and despite her loss of support;
2. Back Corbyn, despite him clearly not being up to the job and holding dangerous views;
3. Back neither and force a new election on the country?

Call for May to go, rule out a coalition and call for a national government to see us through the crisis.

PlatoSaid said:

I gather Trump is making his big policy today in Gettysberg.

Toms said:

Recidivist said:

I have always thought, since they are created that they are ultimately pointless. If you are a socialist you might like winning elections, but you are still a socialist if you lose them. Likewise for Greens and UKIPers. The Tories don't talk about them much, but even they have a set of beliefs. There are things that they wouldn't do because they don't believe in them even though they might be expedient. As far as I can see the Lib Dems have no such core set of beliefs and values. Without them, the just become a handy repository of protest votes. That is a public service of sorts, but hardly something that would get me fired up.

To (over?) simplify:
Polarity is British politics middle name.