politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Ipsos Mori polling sees the Tories with an 18 (eighteen

JackW said:

National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 1,639 - 16-18 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

rottenborough said:

How long before Tories hit 50%?

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Swamplands. . Drain Dade Donald.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter

rottenborough said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Swamplands. . Drain Dade Donald.

" “We’ve never seen numbers like these before,” Amandi said. "Ever, ever, ever, ever.” "

Tee hee. Landslide coming!!!!

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter

A Manchester United fan. So not a proper follower of football.

rottenborough said:

What's the view on this national poll?

http://www.prri.org/research/prri-brookings-october-19-2016-presidential-election-horserace-clinton-trump/

51-36 to Clinton!!!!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

No just watching it live

Moses_ said:

Point of order mode on...

Can all those Remainers that keep referring to the statements "the English voted us out, the English have destructed our economy the English this and the English that ( insert winge of the day) please note. The Welsh also voted out.

For reference to this far from unique phenomena please see Meeks thread header this morning closely followed by comments from the usual suspects. It's a good troll (granted) and a great smear but it makes the rest of what you wish to convey bollox if you can't even get the basics right.

That's is all

Point of order mode off.....

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

Sean_F said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

General elections are Con v Lab. Not Con v Lib Dem.

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

No just watching it live

But when not watching live...

YellowSubmarine said:

A very fair assessment of the numbers from TSE. I hate to admit it but in the short term May's UKIP tribute act is working. It's absorbing the UKIP vote ( locally some more 'Kippers have jumped ship ) and centre/centre right Remainers or soft Brexiters have nowhere else to go. Labour and the Lib Dems are radioactive slag heaps. I never thought we'd see the Tories poll 47% again in my life time but I don't doubt Mori's figures for a moment. Some Tories must now hope this is rather like a post colonial situation where the party of independence then governs on brand alone for decades. I think the situation is far more complex than that but we should at least analyse the case.

YellowSubmarine said:

A very fair assessment of the numbers from TSE. I hate to admit it but in the short term May's UKIP tribute act is working. It's absorbing the UKIP vote ( locally some more 'Kippers have jumped ship ) and centre/centre right Remainers or soft Brexiters have nowhere else to go. Labour and the Lib Dems are radioactive slag heaps. I never thought we'd see the Tories poll 47% again in my life time but I don't doubt Mori's figures for a moment. Some Tories must now hope this is rather like a post colonial situation where the party of independence then governs on brand alone for decades. I think the situation is far more complex than that but we should at least analyse the case.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Monksfield said:

The Tories clearly are cruising at the moment, but it's a very soft vote, and predicated massively on the failings of Corbyn.

If Labour could find a leader and a voice then we could rapidly see a 10% swing in that polling.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Never base your predictions on one enthusiastic individual.

I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.

Yeah, but he was labour!

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Never base your predictions on one enthusiastic individual.

I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.

YellowSubmarine said:

On topic: Good that the numbers of folk think Brexit will reduce their standard of living is up sharply since May. Firstly because they are correct and thus can plan accordingly. Secondly it good they realise that before Brexit is irreversible. It will at least increase proper scrutiny of the project. The finding makes grim reading for s europhiles though. It shows how toxic a brand the EU is and how poorly we made our case. The " the EU makes trade freer and free trade makes everyone richer " argument was the strongest, most evidence based and arguably the most compelling of the lot. Yet it doesn't appeared to have reached huge numbers. Thanks is creeping normalcy. Folk don't understand how exceptional post war peace and prosperity is because it's all they've known. However that's europhiles fault. Voters are never wrong in politics even when they factually are.

Alistair said:

Come on 25/1 shot

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/788818251476180992

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

nunu said:

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Would still be saying the vote is rigged if Trump was winning?

No, someone else with different political views would be making such videos and having millions watch. And therein lies a hint of the poison in the US whoever wins.

IanB2 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Gardenwalker said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

May and Tory high command might disagree with me, but however well the LDs perform tomorrow (and they won't win), it should have no bearing on GE support.

If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.

The amount of resources that the LDs have poured into this by election is, to put it mildly, rather difficult to replicate in a general election.

Depending to some extent on how many seats they decide to go for. The targeting decision next time is going to be critical, and very difficult, for the LibDems. They desperately need to make the most of what opportunities there are, to get back to a parliamentary party that can at least get noticed now and again, but cannot risk aiming too high and ending up with just a handful.

IanB2 said:

Monksfield said:

The Tories clearly are cruising at the moment, but it's a very soft vote, and predicated massively on the failings of Corbyn.

If Labour could find a leader and a voice then we could rapidly see a 10% swing in that polling.

I can't believe their vote would go down that much more.

YellowSubmarine said:

Surely there is a strong counterintuitive case that a shock in Witney tomorrow actually increases the chances of a Spring '17 election ? If it happens ( I don't believe it will ) then the entire political establishment will over react, the push back against hard Brexit will be enormous and May will find it harder still to get any policies through. As midterm By-Elections, especially ones with such sui generis local circumstances, tell you nothing about General Elections on there own May must be tempted to go for what I'm now calling #MayDay.