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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Ipsos Mori polling sees the Tories with an 18 (eighteen) point lead
New @IpsosMORI VI poll Con 47% (+7) Lab 29% (-5) LD7% (+1) UKIP 6% (-3) The Tory lead in emojis. 1 emoji = 1% Con lead. ??????????????????
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Clinton 58 .. Trump 28
Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county
Seems to represent the Prodigal kippers returning to mother Theresa's Conservatives.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 36
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.
The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.
Clinton 43 .. Trump 46
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-shows-many-georgians-unphased-by-trumps-lewd-audio/
http://www.prri.org/research/prri-brookings-october-19-2016-presidential-election-horserace-clinton-trump/
51-36 to Clinton!!!!
Corbynism21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...I called it a Witney hold last month, see no reason to change that.
Clinton 47 .. Trump 40
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_101916/
Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5
Not sure that is a consolation for the Lib Dems, mind you. I mean to say 7%? The polls might be off but if they are 20% off what is the point of them.
The person I feel sorry for on this site is TSE - he has worked so hard at promoting his anti-TM view whilst still maintaining he is a Conservative. His reward - an 18% Conservative lead over Labour.
All of that if you believe the polls, which I am not sure I do.
The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.
They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".
They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.
They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.
If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.
They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.
Tee hee. Landslide coming!!!!
1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU
2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'
Not that it is always the economy, stupid. In bad times, it always is (unless things have become so bad that despair and anger have become unmanageable), but in periods of relative prosperity, other issues can become significantly more salient.
I think I may have a claim to have followed football
If not, why not?
That means some areas equally landslidey towards Trump.
Whoever wins the aftermath will make Brexit look like a vicarage tea party. There are now two rival demos' there who despise each other.
Can all those Remainers that keep referring to the statements "the English voted us out, the English have destructed our economy the English this and the English that ( insert winge of the day) please note. The Welsh also voted out.
For reference to this far from unique phenomena please see Meeks thread header this morning closely followed by comments from the usual suspects. It's a good troll (granted) and a great smear but it makes the rest of what you wish to convey bollox if you can't even get the basics right.
That's is all
Point of order mode off.....
This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.
Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)
and Barcelona have scored
"The UEFA Champions League© anthem, which cannot be bought, was written by British composer Tony Britten, a graduate of the Royal College of Music. Commissioned in 1992 to devise a piece in the style of George Frideric Handel, the iconic recording of Britten's piece is performed by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and sung by the Academy of Saint Martin in the Fields Chorus. "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mf9LUNB-JsM
1. The BOE credit report last week highlighted business investment was falling, while consumer credit was increasing. That's not a very healthy position for an already off-balance economy.
2. The companies I see in my day-to-day job are all deferring UK investment decisions right now. Not cancelling, but waiting until they have better clarity before committing to expenditure or expansion in the UK.
3. There was a very minor negative canary in the coal mine yesterday. Hays, which is a relatively small staffer relative to Adecco or Randstad, reported dramatically worse UK numbers for 3Q than expected (-12% vs -7%). Changes in temporary staffing demand are, in my experience, the best early warning sign for changes in economic weather.
If gross capital formation (i.e. investment) drops from 17% to 15% of GDP next year, we'll need to see a big improvement in our current account to stop the UK economy from slowing sharply, and maybe entering recession.
But, generally, Clinton is comfortably ahead.
Clinton 50 .. Trump 44
http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2390
But don't try telling anyone that in a Merthyr pub of a Saturday night.
And the Council of Europe too, come to think of it.
Except on Cambridge ;-)
Even if they won witney now they would lose it at the next election unless the tories go all 1997 which is unlikely while Corbyn and co rule the roost.
4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days
https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY
If Labour could find a leader and a voice then we could rapidly see a 10% swing in that polling.
Part of me wonders if the reason May is doing so little is because she is trying to build up a coalition and is saving herself for a General Election before she has to make any real decisions.
The best way for her to show she's not Gordon Brown, and expunge any myths about Cameron's electoral prowess at the same time, would be to call one, and win it handsomely.
But, she's also cautious, slow to make her mind up and has, so far, mismanaged her PR on more than occassion.
So, will she do it?
I just don't know. But I can guarantee she'll be a much more divisive figure by GE2020 if she doesn't.
I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.
I'm yet to be convinced it will for the ordinary voter. I think most will wait to see how it pans out.
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/712df67c73a748dcb6091d2468d5b60a
Today's LM Bulletin from ONS also has job vacancies virtually unchanged alongside a claimant count that isn't moving.
If you're looking for an upcoming recession, look across the Irish Sea. There do seem to be a number of very tetchy commentaries coming from there presently.
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/788818251476180992
If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.
A sharp asset fall (from current very historically high levels) has to be a distinct possibility - starting with London and SE property.
The rise in interest rates and shares caused by currency devaluation will exacerbate this as it will suck money into such liquid assets and away from more illiquid assets such as property and fine art etc.
Something that was inevitable at some point but the trigger has been the brexit referendum and any repeat of the early 90s would be seized on with glee by remainers.
Nor will the fall in pound help, overly.
Our current account deficit is too structural for that.
I wouldn't be brave enough to call a recession (and I'm not an economist), but a period of stagnation is surely baked in.
Another reason for May to call an early election!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37705310
I never heard the EU would make me richer.
I did hear that the sky would literally fall in if we left the EU, which is not the same thing.
I still voted remain, DESPITE the remain campaign.
I think voters are factoring in the short-term impacts of the next 1-3 years into a longer-term view. Which is normal.
A strong second place on 25% of the vote would be a good showing.
'Dem Operative Who Oversaw Trump Rally Agitators Visited White House 342 Times' #DrainTheSwamp
https://t.co/MO4SJaQMzo
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news
http://edition.cnn.com/politics
That's utterly scandalous given this is Watergate x1000. In fact x100000000. At least. Luckily Fox is giving it the attention it deserves!! #CrookedHillaryShouldBeInAFederalPenitentiary
Poor LD performance; who cares
Good LD performance; good for LDs but who cares
Shock; May less likely herself to want a GE but the media will latch onto LDs as favourite anti-Brexit vehicle. A Cleggasm, if you like. In turn this will set off the dynamic you describe.