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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 20/1 on Philip Hammond being the first to leave the

Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union – 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'https://t.co/w7KaQJ4Ui4
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May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.
If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.
There are three major considerations;
1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;
2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;
3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.
I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.
There are so many jokes that could be made about that. But Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton ceased to be funny quite a long time ago, so I won't.
The most successful business person in the cabinet is Jeremy Hunt.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-joins-cabinet-rich-list-with-17m-sale-of-company-8930024.html
"The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111
BTW, you do know I voted Labour last year, don't you? Just a thought.
Did Hunt have a small loan of a million dollars to start him off though?
The former Tory moderniser lamented: “It seems as if there is a darkness at the heart of Theresa May’s government” which could leave a “lasting stain on the Tory party”.
From the Sunday Times, about someone more amenable to Brexit than President Hollande becoming President
Ministers are under no illusions, however, that any of the contenders for the Elysée will bend over backwards to help Britain. “They’re all French, after all,” said one.
In Brussels officials take the view that, by selecting a “hard Brexit” plan, May has put politics ahead of economics. They will do the same.
My eyes wouldn't stop rolling.
F1: listened to it on the radio. Unexpected result. Writing the post-race piece now. No spoilers, for those casual n00bs who won't wake up at half past five (well, I was awake from 5am) to listen to radio of a race.
DYOR.
Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF
http://www.snopes.com/media/notnews/yokohillary.asp
1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas.
Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead.
On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts....
All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
It looks like a power grab by the Treasury to remove Fox and others. In Hammond they have a pliable tool.
Clinton 43 .. Trump 40
https://www.scribd.com/document/326848657/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Poll-Ohio-Statewide-Wave-2
Change will come inside Labour when Labour members realise just what a toxic turkey they have in charge. Corbyn is doing his best to show them. Twitter is today awash with lefty outrage that Jeremy spoke at an SWP event yesterday. Even his supporters can see it's pretty disgusting to be hanging out with rape apologists.
How to read an academic paper. https://t.co/Wfmg21ttvI
Kill him with a stiletto knife to the heart and hug him as he dies.
DYOR.
It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:
1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.
2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.
3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.
4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/andrew-green-brexit-and-migration-work-permits-are-the-way-forward.html
I can understand you saying you expect it to but not that you want it to.
"This week May and Rudd killed off the British Liberal Elite.
We can criticise them for their brutality. Or we can thank them for putting us out of our misery."
http://dailym.ai/2e2Z6D2
If they rule in her favour she should be looking ar serving A50 in January 2017 and just get on with it. If it has to go through the HOC and HOL than who knows when A50 will be served increasing uncertainty and prolonging negative effects on the economy
He has significant union support, friends in NEC and party HQ (being parachuted into a safe seat for the Leicester South by-election), and now has joined the Corbyn front bench on health. This is a good area for getting known, keeping the unions on board and suits his attack dog style. It is an area which both wings of the party agree on, so not likely to force a resignation. He may well be the only acceptable frontbencher if Corbyn did stand down.
There is nevertheless a clear danger that hard Brexit is what we get. But when a government goes so resolutely against their business community it rarely if ever ends well.
The Reps are tearing themselves apart at the moment. Nedr interrupt an opponent and all that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/08/what-theresa-may-did-and-very-carefully-did-not-say-about-brexit/
There is nevertheless an argument that a sharp early reaction to the prospect of hard Brexit - of the sort we almost saw on Thursday night - stands at least some chance of bringing the government to a more sensible position whilst there is still time, whereas a crash after the deed is done is the worst possible outcome.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3749965/ANDREW-PIERCE-longer-Theresa-tolerate-three-backstabbing-Brexiteers.html
"A Tory delegate got a shock after attempting to grab a passing waitress in the conference Hyatt Hotel on Monday to order breakfast. ‘I’d be happy to,’ she replied, ‘but I’m afraid I’m not actually a waitress. I’m the Home Secretary.’ Amber Rudd – service with a smile."
However, I think Carney's been more hindrance than help since the vote. And the deputy (whose name escapes me) who blathered about permanently low interest rates seems bonkers to me.
A stern slapping with an enormo-haddock will bash some sense into them.