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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 20/1 on Philip Hammond being the first to leave the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,551
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 20/1 on Philip Hammond being the first to leave the cabinet

Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union – 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'https://t.co/w7KaQJ4Ui4

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,027
    edited October 2016
    First in, first out
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Second, like Remain...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    No polls out to confirm what a disaster the Tory conference was?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    There I was refreshing the old thread like a right duffer.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RobD said:

    There I was refreshing the old thread like a right duffer.

    Better than being a left duffer....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    There I was refreshing the old thread like a right duffer.

    Better than being a left duffer....
    A truer word was never spoken :D
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

    Okaaaay...

    There are so many jokes that could be made about that. But Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton ceased to be funny quite a long time ago, so I won't.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

    The difference between business and crime? Whether disputes are resolved by intimidation and the courts, or intimidation and violence.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    ydoethur said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

    Okaaaay...

    There are so many jokes that could be made about that. But Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton ceased to be funny quite a long time ago, so I won't.
    I considered responding to Miss Innocenta, but realized it was not worth the wear on the keyboard.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    What was Mrs May's success in business ?

    The most successful business person in the cabinet is Jeremy Hunt.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-joins-cabinet-rich-list-with-17m-sale-of-company-8930024.html
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    ydoethur said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

    Okaaaay...

    There are so many jokes that could be made about that. But Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton ceased to be funny quite a long time ago, so I won't.
    And your point is...?

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    MTimT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

    Okaaaay...

    There are so many jokes that could be made about that. But Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton ceased to be funny quite a long time ago, so I won't.
    I considered responding to Miss Innocenta, but realized it was not worth the wear on the keyboard.
    Ah! I've often wondered who the most intelligent Peebie is. Clearly I need wonder no more...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    edited October 2016
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    ydoethur said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    I seem to have wandered into ConHome. Yet again.

    So, yet again, let me describe, in one word, the difference between business and crime. Luck.

    Okaaaay...

    There are so many jokes that could be made about that. But Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton ceased to be funny quite a long time ago, so I won't.
    And your point is...?

    Well, if you can't get my gentle sarcasm, which is noted for its total lack of subtlety and its ability to be understood by somebody with the intellectual sophistication of Lady Nugee, there clearly isn't much point in explaining it.

    BTW, you do know I voted Labour last year, don't you? Just a thought.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    What was Mrs May's success in business ?

    The most successful business person in the cabinet is Jeremy Hunt.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-joins-cabinet-rich-list-with-17m-sale-of-company-8930024.html
    I thought she had a successful career in banking. I am happy to be told I am in error if I thought wrong.

    Did Hunt have a small loan of a million dollars to start him off though? :wink:
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    What was Mrs May's success in business ?

    The most successful business person in the cabinet is Jeremy Hunt.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-joins-cabinet-rich-list-with-17m-sale-of-company-8930024.html
    That'll get tim going...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    Steve Hilton speaks for many of us

    The former Tory moderniser lamented: “It seems as if there is a darkness at the heart of Theresa May’s government” which could leave a “lasting stain on the Tory party”.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    What was Mrs May's success in business ?

    The most successful business person in the cabinet is Jeremy Hunt.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-joins-cabinet-rich-list-with-17m-sale-of-company-8930024.html
    I thought she had a successful career in banking. I am happy to be told I am in error if I thought wrong.

    Did Hunt have a small loan of a million dollars to start him off though? :wink:
    Success, like incest, is all relative
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    If Hammond goes the lunatics will be in complete control of the asylum. It will be time to get all investments as far away from the UK as possible.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Steve Hilton speaks for many of us

    The former Tory moderniser lamented: “It seems as if there is a darkness at the heart of Theresa May’s government” which could leave a “lasting stain on the Tory party”.

    How Steve Hilton could have waltzed through the referendum campaign without realising who he was hanging out with is quite beyond me. With such a lack of awareness it's clear he should never have been allowed anywhere close to Downing Street.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    Whoever this cabinet minister is, they are my new hero/heroine.

    From the Sunday Times, about someone more amenable to Brexit than President Hollande becoming President

    Ministers are under no illusions, however, that any of the contenders for the Elysée will bend over backwards to help Britain. “They’re all French, after all,” said one.

    In Brussels officials take the view that, by selecting a “hard Brexit” plan, May has put politics ahead of economics. They will do the same.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    I guess it's tribalism, holding one's nose and supporting him for the sake of your Party. Don't know what the Trumpers on here excuse is though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    I agree.

    There are three major considerations;

    1) Hammond is one of her loyallest supporters and allies, in close accord with her on almost all policy and able to deliver on it. Fox is a minor part of her cover with the Eurosceptic right;

    2) Hammond is one of the most experienced ministers she has and the de facto deputy PM. Losing such a senior figure never ends well;

    3) He is also, with the exception of May and to a lesser extent Davis, the only Cabinet minister with significant success in business. He actually knows what he is talking about and that is vital to what is otherwise quite a lightweight government.

    I don't think he's unsackable, but it would take a major personal scandal to do it. The idea that May will let him walk to keep Fox on side is up there with the idea that Donald Trump will voluntarily resign the nomination.
    What was Mrs May's success in business ?

    The most successful business person in the cabinet is Jeremy Hunt.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-joins-cabinet-rich-list-with-17m-sale-of-company-8930024.html
    I thought she had a successful career in banking. I am happy to be told I am in error if I thought wrong.

    Did Hunt have a small loan of a million dollars to start him off though? :wink:
    Success, like incest, is all relative
    It's too early on a Sunday morning for such remarks. I'm off to wash my mind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Steve Hilton speaks for many of us

    The former Tory moderniser lamented: “It seems as if there is a darkness at the heart of Theresa May’s government” which could leave a “lasting stain on the Tory party”.

    How Steve Hilton could have waltzed through the referendum campaign without realising who he was hanging out with is quite beyond me. With such a lack of awareness it's clear he should never have been allowed anywhere close to Downing Street.

    At conference I was struck by how many Leavers were regretting how Brexit had become Hard Brexit and not the EEA.

    My eyes wouldn't stop rolling.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.

    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.

    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    May would show serious weakness of she was forced to sacrifice Hammond for Fox - indeed sacrificing anyone for Fox would seem a bad choice.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Steve Hilton speaks for many of us

    The former Tory moderniser lamented: “It seems as if there is a darkness at the heart of Theresa May’s government” which could leave a “lasting stain on the Tory party”.

    How Steve Hilton could have waltzed through the referendum campaign without realising who he was hanging out with is quite beyond me. With such a lack of awareness it's clear he should never have been allowed anywhere close to Downing Street.

    I think Gove, from his interview in The Times magazine, must take the top award for lack of awareness. Didn't think that Leave would win, didn't think that Cameron would resign, didn't think that Boris would withdraw when he decided to stand.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    logical_song said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    I guess it's tribalism, holding one's nose and supporting him for the sake of your Party. Don't know what the Trumpers on here excuse is though.

    I do. At least for some of them.

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited October 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Whoever this cabinet minister is, they are my new hero/heroine.

    From the Sunday Times, about someone more amenable to Brexit than President Hollande becoming President

    Ministers are under no illusions, however, that any of the contenders for the Elysée will bend over backwards to help Britain. “They’re all French, after all,” said one.

    In Brussels officials take the view that, by selecting a “hard Brexit” plan, May has put politics ahead of economics. They will do the same.

    Clearly they're all Marxists... politics is determinant in the last instance
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    I guess it's tribalism, holding one's nose and supporting him for the sake of your Party. Don't know what the Trumpers on here excuse is though.

    I do. At least for some of them.

    Please enlighten us ;-)
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    logical_song said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    I guess it's tribalism, holding one's nose and supporting him for the sake of your Party. Don't know what the Trumpers on here excuse is though.
    I guess there is a limit to tribalism. Without surburban women, the GOP are only the US version of the BNP. Better losing this election than destroy the party
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    The 2005 tape isn’t costing Trump support bc it’s surprising, but bc it creates common knowledge. His supporters lose plausible deniability.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The anti Hammond briefing in the Telegraph is fairly brutal. For a government about a 100 days old it's astonishing. That said losing a Chancellor so soon is something May will do everything to avoid. And as a europhile I don't trust my own judgement on Brexit going tits up. I try not to bet in things I want to happen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: listened to it on the radio. Unexpected result. Writing the post-race piece now. No spoilers, for those casual n00bs who won't wake up at half past five (well, I was awake from 5am) to listen to radio of a race.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited October 2016
    My money's firmly on Justine Greening being the first Cabinet Minister to leave office, on offer at 8/1 with Ladbrokes. This is based on the premise that Heathrow expansion looks virtually certain to get the go ahead and soon, probably very soon, and she has long been a vociferous arch opponent, with little alternative other than to carry out what she has previously threatened.
    DYOR.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    619 said:

    The 2005 tape isn’t costing Trump support bc it’s surprising, but bc it creates common knowledge. His supporters lose plausible deniability.

    They never had it, and some of his past with women is ten times as iffy as the tape. It is more the straw that breaks the camel's back.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,124
    619 said:

    The 2005 tape isn’t costing Trump support bc it’s surprising, but bc it creates common knowledge. His supporters lose plausible deniability.

    Pardon?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    PlatoSaid said:

    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF

    I think you want to google this sort of stuff before posting it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,732
    PlatoSaid said:

    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF

    Hopefully it's that, because you'll be sober in the morning.

    http://www.snopes.com/media/notnews/yokohillary.asp
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Steve Hilton would be better off apologising for his role n the referendum and withdrawing from public life. One of our south atlantic islands should be used to house a colony of repentant libertarian Brexiteers. They can perform menial work for charity in penance for their crass stupidity which helps inflict this nativist Xenophobic spasm on the rest of us.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    PlatoSaid said:

    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF

    Yes, drunk on the strong stuff from the Trump Winery
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers.
    1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas.
    Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead.
    On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts....
    All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Putney, I have put a small sum on that.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    PlatoSaid said:

    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF

    That seems unlikely, very unlikely, but I suppose stranger things have happened.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    peter_from_putney said:

    My money's firmly on Justine Greening being the first Cabinet Minister to leave office, on offer at 8/1 with Ladbrokes. This is based on the premise that Heathrow expansion looks virtually certain to get the go ahead and soon, probably very soon, and she has long been a vociferous arch opponent, with little alternative other than to carry out what she has previously threatened.
    DYOR.

    I believe she has been given the freedom to miss the vote.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    Fair enough - I'm uncertain quite what can force him out now though. It seems Labour needs a big GE defeat in order to make it seem sense. PSOE in Spain seems to have avoided - just - a similar fate although they too seem like dead men walking right now.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Charles said:

    Don't think this is value.
    May can't afford to lose her Chancellor at the moment - would destroy any confidence the market might have.
    If push comes to shove Fox gets fired before Hammond quits.

    Agreed. Problem is can Mrs May endure the problems arising from a Treasury led process of talking down the UK.
    It looks like a power grab by the Treasury to remove Fox and others. In Hammond they have a pliable tool.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers.
    1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas.
    Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead.
    On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts....
    All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.

    May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    peter_from_putney said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!

    I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    NickPalmer said:

    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?

    Stay above it. He will hang himself, and the Town hall questions format is certain to raise it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    NickPalmer said:

    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?

    Surely the latter, assuming he remains as the GOP's nominee, then she's home and hosed as the next POTUS, health permitting.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    PlatoSaid said:

    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF

    Not for the first time you have fallen for an old story from a satirical news site.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ohio - TargetSmart/William & Mary Uni

    Clinton 43 .. Trump 40

    https://www.scribd.com/document/326848657/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Poll-Ohio-Statewide-Wave-2
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    Fair enough - I'm uncertain quite what can force him out now though. It seems Labour needs a big GE defeat in order to make it seem sense. PSOE in Spain seems to have avoided - just - a similar fate although they too seem like dead men walking right now.

    It's very sad to see PSOE come to this. They were a huge and positive force for change in Spain in the 80s and 90s.

    Change will come inside Labour when Labour members realise just what a toxic turkey they have in charge. Corbyn is doing his best to show them. Twitter is today awash with lefty outrage that Jeremy spoke at an SWP event yesterday. Even his supporters can see it's pretty disgusting to be hanging out with rape apologists.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SouthamObserver said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!

    I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.

    Jon Ashworth. Not that I think him the best candidate, but I think that he has support in the right places, and now has a prominent front bench role.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    Morris - I totally agree, I've been most surprised by his tone since becoming Chancellor - he should be talking up the economy, instead of the reverse. He clearly needs a good slap.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    PlatoSaid said:

    Am I still drunk?

    Yoko Ono: "I Had an Affair with Hillary Clinton in the '70s" https://t.co/lJLPUSR3pF

    Not a surprise.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This reminds me of many discussions on here :smiley:

    How to read an academic paper. https://t.co/Wfmg21ttvI
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    NickPalmer said:

    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?

    Both.

    Kill him with a stiletto knife to the heart and hug him as he dies.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,936
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Steve Hilton speaks for many of us

    The former Tory moderniser lamented: “It seems as if there is a darkness at the heart of Theresa May’s government” which could leave a “lasting stain on the Tory party”.

    How Steve Hilton could have waltzed through the referendum campaign without realising who he was hanging out with is quite beyond me. With such a lack of awareness it's clear he should never have been allowed anywhere close to Downing Street.

    Has Hilton ever been elected to any office. Is he UK based and more than that, he is only known within the Westminister Village
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!

    I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.

    Jon Ashworth. Not that I think him the best candidate, but I think that he has support in the right places, and now has a prominent front bench role.

    Labour will go for a female leader.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,912
    NickPalmer said:

    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?

    Surely the latter; he is self destruting and, as in the first debate, staying above it (and addressing some of her own negatives by appearing relaxed and jovial) must be better than risking even more voters wanting neither of them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    NickPalmer said:

    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?

    Trump will come out swinging tonight. Clinton needs to be careful. He'll throw a lot of haymakers and if she is not on her guard one may land. He now has absolutely nothing to lose, after all.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    peter_from_putney said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    Morris - I totally agree, I've been most surprised by his tone since becoming Chancellor - he should be talking up the economy, instead of the reverse. He clearly needs a good slap.
    Treasury view him as unsackable. So brief him to talk about problems. Hammond was captured by FO and same has happened at Treasury.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,936
    peter_from_putney said:

    My money's firmly on Justine Greening being the first Cabinet Minister to leave office, on offer at 8/1 with Ladbrokes. This is based on the premise that Heathrow expansion looks virtually certain to get the go ahead and soon, probably very soon, and she has long been a vociferous arch opponent, with little alternative other than to carry out what she has previously threatened.
    DYOR.

    It is reported that both Greening and Johnson will be 'out of town' when the Heathrow vote is taken
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!

    I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.

    Jon Ashworth. Not that I think him the best candidate, but I think that he has support in the right places, and now has a prominent front bench role.
    Interesting how you seem to go for Leicester Labour MPs notwithstanding their evident unsuitability. Although you seem to avoid Vaz.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    I did not support the rate cut but anyone who thinks sacking the CoE and the BoE Governor in order to keep Fox in post will cheer the markets needs a reality check.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    felix said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers.
    1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas.
    Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead.
    On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts....
    All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.

    May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
    More a response to Hammond's doom and Carney's rate policy.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    SouthamObserver said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!

    I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.

    I tend to agree. She was tipped by HenryG, no less, prior to the previous contest and although fancied, she somehow never got out of the starting blocks. Her chances have probably improved recently on account of the Tories having now selected their second female leader and she looks good value imho at 20/1 with both Corals and Laddies.
    DYOR.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    felix said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    I did not support the rate cut but anyone who thinks sacking the CoE and the BoE Governor in order to keep Fox in post will cheer the markets needs a reality check.
    Yes Fox is vulnerable but the underlying problems are Hammond and Carney.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    peter_from_putney said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    Morris - I totally agree, I've been most surprised by his tone since becoming Chancellor - he should be talking up the economy, instead of the reverse. He clearly needs a good slap.
    Apart from the £ the economy is doing ok - the markets are spooked by May's talk of hard Brexit. I know the 'ultra' leavers don't want to hear this but the sand they're burying their heads in has clouded their judgement.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2016
    On topic.

    It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:

    1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.

    2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.

    3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.

    4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    felix said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers.
    1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas.
    Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead.
    On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts....
    All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.

    May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
    More a response to Hammond's doom and Carney's rate policy.
    Nope.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sensible proposal that Mrs Rudd should adopt.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/andrew-green-brexit-and-migration-work-permits-are-the-way-forward.html
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    felix said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    I did not support the rate cut but anyone who thinks sacking the CoE and the BoE Governor in order to keep Fox in post will cheer the markets needs a reality check.
    Yes Fox is vulnerable but the underlying problems are Hammond and Carney.
    How do you think the markets would react if May got rid of both of them right now? Seriously?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    May could stop the anti Hammond briefings if she wanted to. Instead of clamping down on the rhetoric she's piling in. The referendum is over. She would be advised to prepare people for the trade offs and setbacks that will inevitably happen.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    YellowSubmarine said:

    The anti Hammond briefing in the Telegraph is fairly brutal. For a government about a 100 days old it's astonishing. That said losing a Chancellor so soon is something May will do everything to avoid. And as a europhile I don't trust my own judgement on Brexit going tits up. I try not to bet in things I want to happen.

    You want it to go tits up?

    I can understand you saying you expect it to but not that you want it to.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    A suitable response to our hosts vapid bilge about Mrs May being cack handed etc yesterday from Dan Hodges of all people:

    "This week May and Rudd killed off the British Liberal Elite.

    We can criticise them for their brutality. Or we can thank them for putting us out of our misery."


    http://dailym.ai/2e2Z6D2
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,936
    foxinsoxuk said:

    On topic.

    It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:

    1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.

    2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.

    3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.

    4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.

    Talk in the papers that the Government is looking at the Canadian trade deal as the model they will be looking to adopt. I do think it would be sensible for TM to outline her position but suspect she will do nothing before the Courts rule later this month on her right to serve A50.

    If they rule in her favour she should be looking ar serving A50 in January 2017 and just get on with it. If it has to go through the HOC and HOL than who knows when A50 will be served increasing uncertainty and prolonging negative effects on the economy
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Felix, oh, we agree on Fox. The man's equipped with obsolete intellectual equipment, to quote Sir Humphrey. That doesn't make Carney's rate cut sensible or his rhetoric prudent, though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    matt said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    logical_song said:

    McCain and Rice desert Trump.
    "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
    Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111

    It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.

    You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?

    I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.

    SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!

    I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.

    Jon Ashworth. Not that I think him the best candidate, but I think that he has support in the right places, and now has a prominent front bench role.
    Interesting how you seem to go for Leicester Labour MPs notwithstanding their evident unsuitability. Although you seem to avoid Vaz.
    I do indeed, but Ashworth lacks Kendall's charm and wit.

    He has significant union support, friends in NEC and party HQ (being parachuted into a safe seat for the Leicester South by-election), and now has joined the Corbyn front bench on health. This is a good area for getting known, keeping the unions on board and suits his attack dog style. It is an area which both wings of the party agree on, so not likely to force a resignation. He may well be the only acceptable frontbencher if Corbyn did stand down.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,912
    edited October 2016
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    A suitable response to our hosts vapid bilge about Mrs May being cack handed etc yesterday from Dan Hodges of all people:

    "This week May and Rudd killed off the British Liberal Elite"

    http://dailym.ai/2e2Z6D2

    I don't think hard Brexit can yet be described as the centre ground. It just feels that way because Labour are so abjectly useless right now. Rawnsley in the Observer makes essentially the same point but starting from the other end of the argument.

    There is nevertheless a clear danger that hard Brexit is what we get. But when a government goes so resolutely against their business community it rarely if ever ends well.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, oh, we agree on Fox. The man's equipped with obsolete intellectual equipment, to quote Sir Humphrey. That doesn't make Carney's rate cut sensible or his rhetoric prudent, though.

    How do you think the markets would react to Carney being sacked as JR-M and others would like?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016
    NickPalmer said:

    All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?

    Kids gloves from Hilary. Going for the kill would be a mistake.

    The Reps are tearing themselves apart at the moment. Nedr interrupt an opponent and all that.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    felix said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    felix said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Felix, Carney's rhetoric and rate cut both came in for much criticism here. On Hammond, I don't think it's wise for a Chancellor to refer to the economy being in for a 'rollercoaster'. That's hardly language to build and sustain confidence.

    I did not support the rate cut but anyone who thinks sacking the CoE and the BoE Governor in order to keep Fox in post will cheer the markets needs a reality check.
    Yes Fox is vulnerable but the underlying problems are Hammond and Carney.
    How do you think the markets would react if May got rid of both of them right now? Seriously?
    Not well which is why she has to try and talk sense into them.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    All the remoaners here fearing a hard exit would do well to analyse Barkworths forensic analysis of what Mrs May did or didn't actually say in her incredibly carefully worded speech on Europe. Soft Brexiters despair ye not.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/08/what-theresa-may-did-and-very-carefully-did-not-say-about-brexit/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,912
    edited October 2016
    Philip_Thompson said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    The anti Hammond briefing in the Telegraph is fairly brutal. For a government about a 100 days old it's astonishing. That said losing a Chancellor so soon is something May will do everything to avoid. And as a europhile I don't trust my own judgement on Brexit going tits up. I try not to bet in things I want to happen.

    You want it to go tits up?

    I can understand you saying you expect it to but not that you want it to.
    I read his post to mean Brexit - I.e. The process - rather than the economy. No-one wants the economy to crash.

    There is nevertheless an argument that a sharp early reaction to the prospect of hard Brexit - of the sort we almost saw on Thursday night - stands at least some chance of bringing the government to a more sensible position whilst there is still time, whereas a crash after the deed is done is the worst possible outcome.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited October 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    On topic.

    It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:

    1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends.

    Weirdly May and Fox are 'regular dining companions', so on the friendship front Fox may be closer to May than Hammond.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3749965/ANDREW-PIERCE-longer-Theresa-tolerate-three-backstabbing-Brexiteers.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    foxinsoxuk said:

    On topic.

    It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:

    1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.

    2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.

    3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.

    4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.

    This Rudd "gaffe"?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    A suitable response to our hosts vapid bilge about Mrs May being cack handed etc yesterday from Dan Hodges of all people:

    "This week May and Rudd killed off the British Liberal Elite.

    We can criticise them for their brutality. Or we can thank them for putting us out of our misery."


    http://dailym.ai/2e2Z6D2

    I don't agree with Hodges but this little anecdote at the end of the article was brilliant :

    "A Tory delegate got a shock after attempting to grab a passing waitress in the conference Hyatt Hotel on Monday to order breakfast. ‘I’d be happy to,’ she replied, ‘but I’m afraid I’m not actually a waitress. I’m the Home Secretary.’ Amber Rudd – service with a smile."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Felix, probably badly. But then, the markets are on bad news watch, and it's never good to lose a Governor.

    However, I think Carney's been more hindrance than help since the vote. And the deputy (whose name escapes me) who blathered about permanently low interest rates seems bonkers to me.

    A stern slapping with an enormo-haddock will bash some sense into them.
This discussion has been closed.