politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other side of the table. How the EU is shaping up to appro
Comments
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Which actually means next to nothing.PlatoSaid said:
Quite. It's empty stuff - they collectively sell more to us.MarkHopkins said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workScott_P said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workMarkHopkins said:
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?MarkHopkins said:If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.0 -
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
I'm sure French, Italian and Spanish wine producers will take 38% import tariffs into the UK in their stride....IanB2 said:
If that was their mindset - and politics will always trump economics, as with our own vote - then they simply need to hang us out to dry, and wait for the A50 period to expire. There is no need for them to say or do anything.edmundintokyo said:
That's not how the EU works. Even if the upshot was "piss of Britain", it would take 2 years to say it.Fenman said:Sterling will continue to fall to 1:15 to the dollar.and parity against the Euro. The Brexit negotiations will take 5 minutes and basically consist of piss off Britain.
But in any case, they'll fudge something together. Even if there's not much to talk about on the big issues, there will be a lot to work together on over the small ones.0 -
I'm sure UKIP could sort out a permanent retainer from Turkey or Ukraine solely on the basis of making their politics look less crap.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.0 -
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
The proportionate impact on price would hugely be reduced by UK alcohol taxation (at the bottom of the market the actual wine accounts for about 50p of the price), the wine market is relatively inelastic, and the U.K. a relatively modest proportion of their sales, so actually i expect that they would.CarlottaVance said:
I'm sure French, Italian and Spanish wine producers will take 38% import tariffs into the UK in their stride....IanB2 said:
If that was their mindset - and politics will always trump economics, as with our own vote - then they simply need to hang us out to dry, and wait for the A50 period to expire. There is no need for them to say or do anything.edmundintokyo said:
That's not how the EU works. Even if the upshot was "piss of Britain", it would take 2 years to say it.Fenman said:Sterling will continue to fall to 1:15 to the dollar.and parity against the Euro. The Brexit negotiations will take 5 minutes and basically consist of piss off Britain.
But in any case, they'll fudge something together. Even if there's not much to talk about on the big issues, there will be a lot to work together on over the small ones.
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They used to. We may not be able to afford German cars much longer.PlatoSaid said:
Quite. It's empty stuff - they collectively sell more to us.MarkHopkins said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workScott_P said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workMarkHopkins said:
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?MarkHopkins said:If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.0 -
But won't somebody think of theCarlottaVance said:
I suspect the multiple crises will reinforce the view that we were right to Leave and reduce the persuasiveness of those arguing for semi Soft Brexit.DavidL said:. My suspicion is that this will give the EU Institutions more say than we might think which might well make the negotiations more difficult.
If we do get a poor "cutting off their nose to spite their face" deal then that will not only hurt us but also the EU.
For example, the WTO tariff on wine is 32%. But of course we could do deals with Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile....for lower or zero tariffs....childrenChampagne socialists?0 -
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When we enter recession or inflation becomes rampant.Fenman said:At what point will people stop wittering on about Project Fear and admit they are scared. Pound continuing to drop....
Pound dropping is a good thing unless you either are having a foreign holiday or it introduces inflation. Since inflation is too low currently it will take a large adjustment to make it too high.0 -
Brewery piss up cancelled
@PaulBrandITV: Looks like block resignation of the whips is off. Am told individual whips making own decisions, but some will 'move on' #LabourReshuffle0 -
Because he is emotionally affected by having had to sit in the EU parliament for years listening to Nigel's offensive speeches.TGOHF said:
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
People do hate having the truth pointed out to them.IanB2 said:
Because he is emotionally affected by having had to sit in the EU parliament for years listening to Nigel's offensive speeches.TGOHF said:
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
What the ones that are made in South Africa?foxinsoxuk said:
They used to. We may not be able to afford German cars much longer.PlatoSaid said:
Quite. It's empty stuff - they collectively sell more to us.MarkHopkins said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workScott_P said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workMarkHopkins said:
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?MarkHopkins said:If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.0 -
Obviously it’s right that in normal times Witney is a Tory shoo-in, but are these normal times?IanB2 said:
I agree, and the risk is that a decent result for the LDs becomes painted as a disappointment. It is the second safest Tory seat in the country, and the new PM is in her honeymoon. Objectively they cannot lose. The LibDems need a hopeful by-election to come along once May has actually done a few things that people don't like, which is only a matter of time, as with any government.Mortimer said:
The first being in Neverland, presumably?OldKingCole said:
Two LD gains this autumn would spook the Tories.Essexit said:
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.Jonathan said:
LD GainScott_P said:@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
This Witney is a goer for the LDs theme is bizarre. It is rock solid blue.0 -
As you say, they have to talk tough on the rules but the reality is somewhat different: a number of countries have introduced border restrictions in violation of Schengen, the Swiss voted against immigration and the EU has turned a blind eye to this, Cameron was offered an exemption in his ill fated deal.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..
If there is another EU banking crisis then there will be immense pressure not to rock the boat with hard Brexit. I still think there will be some sort of fudge (something between hard and soft)
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All the political bullshit, particularly from Rudd, has done damage. We don’t look open for business.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That is true. But, not unreasonably, most people also dislike being the subject of cheap abuse.Richard_Tyndall said:
People do hate having the truth pointed out to them.IanB2 said:
Because he is emotionally affected by having had to sit in the EU parliament for years listening to Nigel's offensive speeches.TGOHF said:
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
We should aim for a lazy lobby?GarethoftheVale2 said:
If there is another EU banking crisis then there will be immense pressure not to rock the boat with hard Brexit. I still think there will be some sort of fudge (something between hard and soft)0 -
Don't worry, SeanT will be along in a bit to explain why the plot of some British film made forty years ago proves that we will once again rule the world.Jonathan said:
All the political bullshit, particularly from Rudd, has done damage. We don’t look open for business.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
General election result in Witney:Mortimer said:
The first being in Neverland, presumably?OldKingCole said:
Two LD gains this autumn would spook the Tories.Essexit said:
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.Jonathan said:
LD GainScott_P said:@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
This Witney is a goer for the LDs theme is bizarre. It is rock solid blue.
Con 35,201 (60.2%)
LD 3,953 (6.8%)0 -
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.0 -
Jonathan said:
All the political bullshit, particularly from Rudd, has done damage. We don’t look open for business.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was telling that Hammond had to be dispatched to New York yesterday to re-interpret May's conference speech for them.
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The South Africans do have the advantage of depreciating their currency as fast as we do.Richard_Tyndall said:
What the ones that are made in South Africa?foxinsoxuk said:
They used to. We may not be able to afford German cars much longer.PlatoSaid said:
Quite. It's empty stuff - they collectively sell more to us.MarkHopkins said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workScott_P said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workMarkHopkins said:
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?MarkHopkins said:If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.
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Just to help with comedown from National Poetry Day..
https://twitter.com/twitmericks/status/7843149885759365120 -
For some people it is the only language they understand. Juncker is a perfect case in point.IanB2 said:
That is true. But, not unreasonably, most people also dislike being the subject of cheap abuse.Richard_Tyndall said:
People do hate having the truth pointed out to them.IanB2 said:
Because he is emotionally affected by having had to sit in the EU parliament for years listening to Nigel's offensive speeches.TGOHF said:
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
That Grand Tour trailer looks rather good.
Top Gear will end up dead and buried next series if it doesn't improve sharply.0 -
I thought they both treated it somewhat as sport, and in private actually had a pretty good relationship?IanB2 said:
Because he is emotionally affected by having had to sit in the EU parliament for years listening to Nigel's offensive speeches.TGOHF said:
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.0 -
I could well believe that. They sometimes gave the impression of sharing a private joke.TonyE said:
I thought they both treated it somewhat as sport, and in private actually had a pretty good relationship?IanB2 said:
Because he is emotionally affected by having had to sit in the EU parliament for years listening to Nigel's offensive speeches.TGOHF said:
If your comments are correct then why is Mr Juncker's approach is very much at odds ?FeersumEnjineeya said:
The EU isn't being "super aggressive". The EU is an organisation with rules that have been agreed between all of its members, and it is duty bound to operate according to those rules. It simply does not have the authority to make gross exceptions to those rules to suit UK demands. No amount of foot-stomping and posturing by the UK can change that. The mechanics of the situation and the deluded attitude to negotiations on the part of the UK mean that a (very) hard Brexit now looks inevitable.TGOHF said:If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
NL, IRE etc etc..0 -
Mr. Jonathan, Rudd is dire. Should never have got the job in the first place.
And she won't be held to account by her Shadow Secretary of State for Muppetry.0 -
To be fair, as we all know, May 20915 was spectacularly bad for the LD’s everywhere. However, in previous elections the LD’s had done considerably better, and there are signs of a recovery generally.AndyJS said:
General election result in Witney:Mortimer said:
The first being in Neverland, presumably?OldKingCole said:
Two LD gains this autumn would spook the Tories.Essexit said:
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.Jonathan said:
LD GainScott_P said:@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
This Witney is a goer for the LDs theme is bizarre. It is rock solid blue.
Con 35,201 (60.2%)
LD 3,953 (6.8%)0 -
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
The biggest threat to arriving at a deal that is in the best interests of the EU and the UK is the EU. The EU as an institution does not act in the best interests of its economies and economic growth. Growth has for many years been running behind the level in the rest of the world and as a consequence the size of the EU market has shrunk as a proportion of the world. Where is the often mooted "reform of the EU"? Lost in this declining body of economic fools.0
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They are good at breaking things.Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.0 -
UKIP is pitching for white men who left school at 16 or younger. No other party seriously is. If they know what's good for them they should acclaim Tyson Fury as their leader and call for referenda on capital punishment and the abolition of all race relations legislation.Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.
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If what Alastair presents is an accurate view of the EU states bargaining positions, then I think we should hope very certainly for a Trump Presidency.
America under Trump will tend towards the Anglosphere - under Clinton it will lean towards the established order of the current large political blocs, the EU being the largest.
What's good for America for me isn't the point - I'm thinking only of narrow British interest.0 -
Nah. Trump will be an awful President for Free Trade.TonyE said:If what Alastair presents is an accurate view of the EU states bargaining positions, then I think we should hope very certainly for a Trump Presidency.
America under Trump will tend towards the Anglosphere - under Clinton it will lean towards the established order of the current large political blocs, the EU being the largest.
What's good for America for me isn't the point - I'm thinking only of narrow British interest.0 -
Chairman of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group
"Sadly, it seems that this message of change is still not getting through the insulated walls of the European institutions. ...... there has been no sense that anything had changed."
"The EPP Christian Democrat group believes it has now come up with a real winner to get us to love the EU: to give a free interrail pass to every 18 year old as a birthday present. That’s right: it seems that the EU can reconnect to people by giving richer middle class kids free summer holidays backpacking around the Dordogne at enormous cost to the European taxpayer. For a group that lambasts populism at every turn, it fails to see the irony, or why unemployed youth in some EU countries might have higher priorities, such as getting a job."
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/syed-kamall-the-eu-elites-still-dont-get-it.html0 -
Its ironic that around the world Nations (and the EU) are in a race to devalue their currencies to gain advantage in these turbulent times.
Perhaps I am older than a lot of the more hysterical posters on here, but rates of exchange move, we have had periods of worse rates of exchange in the past (and in any event see above)
Remainers are looking for any reason, any perceived reason they can point out why we shouldn't leave.
The EU is going down the pan. It's in a bad place and its only going to get worse for them.
As for the threats about us leaving, I seem to recall the EU having acted against our interests several times and they have tried more than once to hobble the city before we decided to leave.
I have said it before, I have no wish to shackle myself to a dying corpse thanks very much.
Lets hope the downsides of leaving aren't as severe as those for not joining the Euro...... oh.
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I would add they did so in spite of their general state of ineptitude. I am not a great fan of Farage but he certainly got this right. Of course it helps that the EU and its supporters were even more inept and that the basic principle of leaving the EU was correct.Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.0 -
I thought they already wereInnocent_Abroad said:
UKIP is pitching for white men who left school at 16 or younger. No other party seriously is. If they know what's good for them they should acclaim Tyson Fury as their leader and call for referenda on capital punishment and the abolition of all race relations legislation.Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.
..or maybe I'm just thinking of their supporters.0 -
The Lib Dems would most likely get squeezed in such a circumstance, where the fight would undoubtedly be portrayed as Zac v the Tories. Indeed, the Lib Dems might not even stand at all and back Zac given that he won more than three times the LD share (i.e. it'd be mathematically impossible for them to 'come through the middle' without gaining a substantial swing into the bargain too).timmo said:
No chance. The Tories would run a candidate which would let the LDs through the middleMaxPB said:
Surely the local party would just let him run unopposed if he went as an independent. That way there's nothing to lose and on everything else he'll vote with the government.TheScreamingEagles said:@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
0 -
One for metropolitan types on unintended consequences (and hugely oversimplifying matters): was gay marriage worth Brexit?Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.0 -
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
Well https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats has the early voting in Florida and the Democrats aren't exactly forging ahead.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
Mr Meeks article paints a very dark picture of what awaits the UK post Brexit from the EU. He does not mention the many down sides to the EU countries that will result from adopting these positions and failing to reform the EU. The positions that he says the EU are taking will have consequences and our economy is better able to weather this than most of the EU. Putting at risk the £100bn net that we buy from them is of course economic madness, but the EU has lost touch with the requirements of the global marketplace. Which is why a hard brexit may be inevitable in the face of the welfare states of the EU.0
-
Possibly, but of the two options, neither will be good for 'free trade'. However, Clinton might try to steamroller through Obama's TTIP, which clearly Trump won't. That creates a backlog for the UK in dealing with its own free trade issues, because other might want to wait for the outcome before they set their own agendas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. Trump will be an awful President for Free Trade.TonyE said:If what Alastair presents is an accurate view of the EU states bargaining positions, then I think we should hope very certainly for a Trump Presidency.
America under Trump will tend towards the Anglosphere - under Clinton it will lean towards the established order of the current large political blocs, the EU being the largest.
What's good for America for me isn't the point - I'm thinking only of narrow British interest.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37582038
"The incident, understood to be between Mr Woolfe and fellow MEP Mike Hookem, took place during a heated UKIP meeting in the European Parliament."
Do you ever think politics is just some elaborate hoax written by a second-rate sitcom writer.
Mike "Hook-em". Seriously!
0 -
UKIP would have lost the Referendum for a generation (and effectively for all time, with ever closer integration) if the argument for Leave had been fronted by Farage.Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.
Leave won because of Boris.0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
They used to. We may not be able to afford German cars much longer.PlatoSaid said:
Quite. It's empty stuff - they collectively sell more to us.MarkHopkins said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workScott_P said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workMarkHopkins said:
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?MarkHopkins said:If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.
We pay too much for the brand name as it is.. buy now if you want one.. an avalanche of shit is coming the Uk's way because of brexit.........0 -
I don't completely disagree on the overall point here but on the specifics, neither of these are right. Schengen allows for temporary border controls in exceptional circumstances, and there are definitely some exceptional circumstances right now with refugees and terrorism. Specifics here: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control/index_en.htmGarethoftheVale2 said:As you say, they have to talk tough on the rules but the reality is somewhat different: a number of countries have introduced border restrictions in violation of Schengen, the Swiss voted against immigration and the EU has turned a blind eye to this
The Swiss were never banned from *voting* against immigration. They can vote on what they like. Switzerland doesn't break the rules until its government goes ahead and implements what they've voted for, and to date they haven't done that, precisely because they EU obviously isn't going to turn a blind eye to it.0 -
Mildly interesting, although not much we didn't already know before.PlatoSaid said:Haven't read it yet
Rob Ford
Whole host of new results from the @BESResearch team for #poli30241 students to comb through here https://t.co/TUOBgAMAiY0 -
Is this another Dan The Man "exclusive" that's going to look ridiculous in a months time?rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.
0 -
She is anti-TTIP.TonyE said:
Possibly, but of the two options, neither will be good for 'free trade'. However, Clinton might try to steamroller through Obama's TTIP, which clearly Trump won't. That creates a backlog for the UK in dealing with its own free trade issues, because other might want to wait for the outcome before they set their own agendas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. Trump will be an awful President for Free Trade.TonyE said:If what Alastair presents is an accurate view of the EU states bargaining positions, then I think we should hope very certainly for a Trump Presidency.
America under Trump will tend towards the Anglosphere - under Clinton it will lean towards the established order of the current large political blocs, the EU being the largest.
What's good for America for me isn't the point - I'm thinking only of narrow British interest.
Also, Trump will start a trade war ( or a War full stop). Which is never good.
Also, don't forget we all called him a racist twat in Parliament. He is the type to hold a grudge.0 -
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
Hodges should write an article on that.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3614662/DAN-HODGES-Not-immigration-Frankenstein-save-Brexit-mob-won-t-stop-setting-loose.html0 -
Macropolis
#Greece 8-mon Trade Deficit +10% to €12.16 bln, Exports -6.3%, Imports flat. (ELSTAT) #economy0 -
The state of play: we insist on no FoM; the EU side requires any new arrangement to be a downgrade. The parties don't have a lot of room for manoeuvre. They have even less time to do the manoeuvring in. Meantime we have tricky interconnected sets of negotiations to make, almost all involving the EU. We also have to work out what we want our future relationships to be.
In that context Theresa May has made several unforced errors in the short time she has been in office, in my view. Including:
- Appointing her Brexit ministers on political allegiance. These are the most important appointments in her cabinet and should be the most competent she has. These may likely have supported remain.
- Unnecessarily antagonising her EU counterparts and treating the negotiations as a zero sum game. As mentioned the Article 50 negotiations are not likely to result in huge wins. Theresa May should instead devote her efforts towards a constructive environment where issues can be resolved over time. It seems she has no interest in any relationship at all with her EU counterparts.
- Sticking with the rhetoric. The referendum is won. Now is the time for delivery. There will be setbacks and compromises. She needs the sense of direction and buy in so people accept the setbacks and agree to the compromises.0 -
This is a position she holds now, but this is in the electoral cycle. She is very much a creature of the status quo, which is largely 'corporatist - big government allied with big business'. Big business wants TTIP, both here and in the USA. I expect she will return to it, and make the case that it has been 'altered' significantly.619 said:
She is anti-TTIP.TonyE said:
Possibly, but of the two options, neither will be good for 'free trade'. However, Clinton might try to steamroller through Obama's TTIP, which clearly Trump won't. That creates a backlog for the UK in dealing with its own free trade issues, because other might want to wait for the outcome before they set their own agendas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. Trump will be an awful President for Free Trade.TonyE said:If what Alastair presents is an accurate view of the EU states bargaining positions, then I think we should hope very certainly for a Trump Presidency.
America under Trump will tend towards the Anglosphere - under Clinton it will lean towards the established order of the current large political blocs, the EU being the largest.
What's good for America for me isn't the point - I'm thinking only of narrow British interest.
Also, Trump will start a trade war ( or a War full stop). Which is never good.
Also, don't forget we all called him a racist twat in Parliament. He is the type to hold a grudge.
As for calling him a racist Twat, well - the Labour party held a pointless debate on the issue of Trump. It was self destructive and stupid, but then isn't everything the current labour party does exactly as futile?0 -
The U.K. Is France's second largest export market after the US.....IanB2 said:
U.K. a relatively modest proportion of their sales, so actually i expect that they would.CarlottaVance said:
I'm sure French, Italian and Spanish wine producers will take 38% import tariffs into the UK in their stride....IanB2 said:
If that was their mindset - and politics will always trump economics, as with our own vote - then they simply need to hang us out to dry, and wait for the A50 period to expire. There is no need for them to say or do anything.edmundintokyo said:
That's not how the EU works. Even if the upshot was "piss of Britain", it would take 2 years to say it.Fenman said:Sterling will continue to fall to 1:15 to the dollar.and parity against the Euro. The Brexit negotiations will take 5 minutes and basically consist of piss off Britain.
But in any case, they'll fudge something together. Even if there's not much to talk about on the big issues, there will be a lot to work together on over the small ones.0 -
Mook thinks the Dems are turning out their low propensity to vote voters at a far higher rate than the Republicans. So I presume the Independents figure is majority Dem votes.weejonnie said:
Well https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats has the early voting in Florida and the Democrats aren't exactly forging ahead.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
Mr. 43, how has May antagonised the EU?0
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Guards working for @SouthernRailUK are being issued with three months' notice of the termination of their contracts from today. https://t.co/e51omayzha0
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Well, that's as maybe. But the maths are simple:welshowl said:
And the DUP blowing kisses.ThreeQuidder said:
Sixteen.Jonathan said:
Well. With a majority of 12 and a growing tribe of malcontents she needs to be careful.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think that will deter May.Jonathan said:
LD GainScott_P said:@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
650 seats
1 Speaker
3 Deputy Speakers
4 seats not taken
2 seats vacant
i.e. 640 MPs eligible to vote.
330 MPs elected as Conservative
1 Deputy Speaker
1 seat vacant.
i.e. 328 Conservative MPs
therefore 312 non-Conservative MPs
therefore majority 16.
I can't understand why people keep getting this wrong.0 -
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
Well, no. It was a petition which had to be debated in parliament.TonyE said:
This is a position she holds now, but this is in the electoral cycle. She is very much a creature of the status quo, which is largely 'corporatist - big government allied with big business'. Big business wants TTIP, both here and in the USA. I expect she will return to it, and make the case that it has been 'altered' significantly.619 said:
She is anti-TTIP.TonyE said:
Possibly, but of the two options, neither will be good for 'free trade'. However, Clinton might try to steamroller through Obama's TTIP, which clearly Trump won't. That creates a backlog for the UK in dealing with its own free trade issues, because other might want to wait for the outcome before they set their own agendas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. Trump will be an awful President for Free Trade.TonyE said:If what Alastair presents is an accurate view of the EU states bargaining positions, then I think we should hope very certainly for a Trump Presidency.
America under Trump will tend towards the Anglosphere - under Clinton it will lean towards the established order of the current large political blocs, the EU being the largest.
What's good for America for me isn't the point - I'm thinking only of narrow British interest.
Also, Trump will start a trade war ( or a War full stop). Which is never good.
Also, don't forget we all called him a racist twat in Parliament. He is the type to hold a grudge.
As for calling him a racist Twat, well - the Labour party held a pointless debate on the issue of Trump. It was self destructive and stupid, but then isn't everything the current labour party does exactly as futile?0 -
It does seem to be heading for a showdown. Will an all out strike be the response?PlatoSaid said:Guards working for @SouthernRailUK are being issued with three months' notice of the termination of their contracts from today. https://t.co/e51omayzha
0 -
Trump's polling has recovered since first debate - but we've another on Sunday IIRCGIN1138 said:
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
This is the delightful thing about a narrow victory, that you can attribute it to any number of causes and each attribution can be equally valid. On gay marriage, I think it revitalised the UKIP nutters (judging by guido's windowlickers). Secondly, I suspect that there was a line of thought among a certain kind of tory voter which said: we will vote tory in GE2015 to keep the howwid socialists out, but we'll give Cammo a little slap on the wrist for gay marriage by voting leave in a referendum which we know remain will comfortably win. Minor effects, for sure, but the margin of victory was minor too.david_herdson said:
One for metropolitan types on unintended consequences (and hugely oversimplifying matters): was gay marriage worth Brexit?Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.PlatoSaid said:Carl Dinnen
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.0 -
Jonathan Coe
This is the only British film that features a Dr Who, a James Bond, a Man from UNCLE, The Prisoner and a Carry On star. Full house! https://t.co/uwK1eJb9Ut0 -
No thanks. I drive a Fiat 500. An excellent little car, made in Poland. It will last another 8 years or so I think.SquareRoot said:foxinsoxuk said:
They used to. We may not be able to afford German cars much longer.PlatoSaid said:
Quite. It's empty stuff - they collectively sell more to us.MarkHopkins said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workScott_P said:
Not sure you quite understand how threats workMarkHopkins said:
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?MarkHopkins said:If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.
We pay too much for the brand name as it is.. buy now if you want one.. an avalanche of shit is coming the Uk's way because of brexit.........0 -
I'd agree with that. I have my scepticism about the messenger but I do get the impression that enough swing voters have woken up since the first debate to the fact that the election isn't a reality game show to make it an awfully big ask for Trump now.GIN1138 said:
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
Really? Florida and Ohio currently for Clinton and 78.8% chance of Clinton being elected according to 538.PlatoSaid said:
Trump's polling has recovered since first debate - but we've another on Sunday IIRCGIN1138 said:
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
mook ( Clinton's campaign manager) said it to the Guardian and various US publications as well, so it's more about believing him rather than journalistsGIN1138 said:
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.0 -
The Category 1 Brexit hurricane is still out at sea and won't come ashore for another 3-6 months. Though it is calm on shore at the moment, the barometer (sterling) has dropped very sharply, and has dropped further overnight.
The first front to hit us will be the wave of inflation. There is a hit of about 5% inflation caused by the devaluation of sterling which will arrive over the next few months. This will depress real wages and hit consumption. But the most relevant hit will be on interest rates which will go up. This will help savers and hit mortgage holders. Buy your fixed rate mortgages now as they'll never be as cheap again. Higher mortgage rates will hit house prices. Higher saving rates will hit the FTSE.
Hammond's staff will be working overtime preparing for the Autumn statement which will be the most important UK budget event since 2008.0 -
By what she hasn't done, that she could have done, and in my view shroud have done. It isn't very respectful to regard your counterparts simply as a transaction. EU leaders will be sore about the referendum result. It wouldn't cost anything to acknowledge it. For example she could add a couple of sentences to a speech: "To our European partners, i understand this wasn't the result you wanted. Just as the decision the British people made must and will be respected, so we wish you well for the different journey you will be taking. Britain will remain your best friend and will be working with you on many areas of common interest" that message would be heard and it also sets a tone of voice her subordinates would adopt tooMorris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, how has May antagonised the EU?
0 -
I was thinking that the causality ran earlier than that. One of the big prompts that originally shifted UKIP out of their 2-3% range (other than the Euro elections and expenses scandal), was gay marriage, which upset a lot of socially conservative Conservatives. I was surprised how strongly so many felt on the issue when it was pretty much simply a renaming of an existing right. All the same, that prompt, allied to other events, was sufficient for Cameron to pledge the referendum and from there, the rest is history (though as you rightly say, there was a lasting effect which in the context of tight result might also have proven decisive).Ishmael_X said:
This is the delightful thing about a narrow victory, that you can attribute it to any number of causes and each attribution can be equally valid. On gay marriage, I think it revitalised the UKIP nutters (judging by guido's windowlickers). Secondly, I suspect that there was a line of thought among a certain kind of tory voter which said: we will vote tory in GE2015 to keep the howwid socialists out, but we'll give Cammo a little slap on the wrist for gay marriage by voting leave in a referendum which we know remain will comfortably win. Minor effects, for sure, but the margin of victory was minor too.david_herdson said:
One for metropolitan types on unintended consequences (and hugely oversimplifying matters): was gay marriage worth Brexit?Sean_F said:
It is astonishing when you think about it. A party that for years got 2-3% of the vote broke the mould of British politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure UKIP has any point now - unless of course one thinks May is going to do a complete 180° and renege on every single thing she has said since she was elected.IanB2 said:
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.HYUFD said:
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of courseIanB2 said:
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.
UKIP only ever had one job and they achieved that spectacularly well. They now have no useful purpose and should disappear.
Put another way, had the government not backed gay marriage so strongly, there may well not have been a referendum at all, never mind a Brexit.0 -
On topic: I've been thinking about this very subject.
Successful negotiation requires that both sides must feel they got a good deal. When the participants are politicians, they also have to come home with some fine-sounding words for their voters. Is there a deal which can allow each of our counterparties to claim a 'win' and also meet the UK's key objectives? Here’s a suggestion:
1. Tariff-free trade in manufactured goods between the EU and UK is very much in both sides' interests. Both sides can claim a Win domestically, because their manufacturers won't be penalised.
2. Non-tariff barriers for manufactured goods can be minimised if the UK keeps EU product-type standards. This can be claimed as a Win for the EU, but in reality it's hardly going to be worth our while doing anything different, and our own manufacturers will be pleased to have only one set of standards.
3. The City would ideally like to keep the existing 'financial passporting' arrangements, but the EU won't grant that. They need a symbolic Win here, so they can claim that the UK hasn't been allowed to cherry-pick what it wants. However, EU banks are themselves heavily dependent on passporting into the UK, and EU businesses are heavily dependent on capital-raising in London. The answer may be to keep the substance of financial passporting in another way – using the mechanism of 'regulatory equivalence'. The City gets most of what it wants, but pretends to be unhappy. EU politicians pretend that the City won't have full access to the Single Market, while their firms can continue to access London's financial might.
4. Control over immigration is a political red-line for the UK, but we can concede special rights for EU citizens in return for equivalent rights for UK citizens in the EU. Eurocrats will be able to claim a Win in that the principle that you can't be 'in' the Single Market without free movement will have been respected (see item 3). The Visegrad countries are more interested in the numbers, and in practice we in the UK need large numbers of their citizens to pick our fruit, build our houses, staff our hospitals, and care for our elderly. It should be possible to reach a deal which maintains the principle of UK sovereignty and limits peak numbers, without being too disruptive.
5. A bilateral agreement and a commitment to continue the historic special arrangements for Irish citizens will allow the Irish government to claim that Ireland's interests have been respected.
6. Finally, it might be a good symbolic concession for the UK to agree to make contributions towards specific EU programmes. This will allow the EU to claim a Win, and help get the consent of the minor players for our more important objectives.
0 -
@DavidAllenGreen: Brexit, like socialism or Christianity, will never fail. It will just not be implemented properly.0
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I'll repost the article about the Dems GOTV operation - the Republicans have nothing like this. It is a hard thing to grasp the scope and scale of it, the Dems have every single person individually mapped for likelyhood to vote and likelyhood to vote Dem/Rep.david_herdson said:
I'd agree with that. I have my scepticism about the messenger but I do get the impression that enough swing voters have woken up since the first debate to the fact that the election isn't a reality game show to make it an awfully big ask for Trump now.GIN1138 said:
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-to-rally-voters/0 -
By who? Not the guards, their role has been/will be abolished. Drivers get paid a lot - do they really care that much about the plight of the guards?TCPoliticalBetting said:
It does seem to be heading for a showdown. Will an all out strike be the response?PlatoSaid said:Guards working for @SouthernRailUK are being issued with three months' notice of the termination of their contracts from today. https://t.co/e51omayzha
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As the investment note TSE posted above noted, the markets are starting to factor in a hard Brexit, and a determined attempt to reduce immigration.
Both of these will have significant economic penalties, for the UK and Europe.
This is not a zero sum game. What is lost here --- in terms of future growth not delivered, innovations unmade, and companies unfounded --- will not be compensated for elsewhere. See the 1930s protectionist spiral for more detail.
We are, playing a game of chicken with our economy. Sterling is an advance indicator.
There is comfort in that sterling was previously overvalued and we do in fact need a dose of inflation, but the macro omens are not good.
Also, global perceptions and are turning against us and as yet we have not provided any counter to that. Brexit has bewildered global opinion and is generally understood as a protectionist, nativist measure. Our reputation for political stability has taken a knock too.
We should also be aware that comments like Amber Rudd's do in fact reverberate globally in a way that doesn't happen to equivalents in most other countries. This is the dark side to London being a global, English-speaking media capital. We are coming across as anti-foreigner. Whether this is Rudd's fault, or the Guardian's reporting, or a misunderstanding of foreign opinion doesn't matter - it is what it is.
Buckle down. This is a kind of politico-economic 2008 or 1992 or even 1956. One feasible outcome is a noticeably impoverished UK relative to other first world countries. Another, less feasible in my opinion, is a "Singapore of the North Atlantic". The next few years will be very turbulent and in my opinion the Treasury forecasts for "lost growth" by 2020 are an underestimate. Hope I'm wrong!
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Mr Hookem could not be contacted for most of today, but a spokesman for him denied that he had landed the blow.Jonathan said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37582038
"The incident, understood to be between Mr Woolfe and fellow MEP Mike Hookem, took place during a heated UKIP meeting in the European Parliament."
Do you ever think politics is just some elaborate hoax written by a second-rate sitcom writer.
Mike "Hook-em". Seriously!
“Mike did not touch him,” she said.
http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/mike-hookem-denies-punching-steven-woolfe-ukip-favourite-to-take-over-from-nigel-farage/news-story/9be266f509fa7e9f4c888e6e310c91e7
UKIP leader Nigel Farage launched an inquiry as he condemned the “altercation” between “two grown men”.
He added: “It’s made us look like we’re violent. It’s not good.”0 -
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Don't worry. You are wrong.Gardenwalker said:[snip loads of benzo-fuelled gloom]
... Hope I'm wrong!0 -
Agree, and UKIP's little charade yesterday will have massively damaged the way the world sees us. Especially as it happened in Strasbourg rather than, let's say, Clacton.Gardenwalker said:As the investment note TSE posted above noted, the markets are starting to factor in a hard Brexit, and a determined attempt to reduce immigration.
Both of these will have significant economic penalties, for the UK and Europe.
This is not a zero sum game. What is lost here --- in terms of future growth not delivered, innovations unmade, and companies unfounded --- will not be compensated for elsewhere. See the 1930s protectionist spiral for more detail.
We are, playing a game of chicken with our economy. Sterling is an advance indicator.
There is comfort in that sterling was previously overvalued and we do in fact need a dose of inflation, but the macro omens are not good.
Also, global perceptions and are turning against us and as yet we have not provided any counter to that. Brexit has bewildered global opinion and is generally understood as a protectionist, nativist measure. Our reputation for political stability has taken a knock too.
We should also be aware that comments like Amber Rudd's do in fact reverberate globally in a way that doesn't happen to equivalents in most other countries. This is the dark side to London being a global, English-speaking media capital. We are coming across as anti-foreigner. Whether this is Rudd's fault, or the Guardian's reporting, or a misunderstanding of foreign opinion doesn't matter - it is what it is.
Buckle down. This is a kind of politico-economic 2008 or 1992 or even 1956. One feasible outcome is a noticeably impoverished UK relative to other first world countries. Another, less feasible in my opinion, is a "Singapore of the North Atlantic". The next few years will be very turbulent and in my opinion the Treasury forecasts for "lost growth" by 2020 are an underestimate. Hope I'm wrong!0 -
Far too sensible!Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: I've been thinking about this very subject.
Successful negotiation requires that both sides must feel they got a good deal. When the participants are politicians, they also have to come home with some fine-sounding words for their voters. Is there a deal which can allow each of our counterparties to claim a 'win' and also meet the UK's key objectives? Here’s a suggestion:
1. Tariff-free trade in manufactured goods between the EU and UK is very much in both sides' interests. Both sides can claim a Win domestically, because their manufacturers won't be penalised.
2. Non-tariff barriers for manufactured goods can be minimised if the UK keeps EU product-type standards. This can be claimed as a Win for the EU, but in reality it's hardly going to be worth our while doing anything different, and our own manufacturers will be pleased to have only one set of standards.
3. The City would ideally like to keep the existing 'financial passporting' arrangements, but the EU won't grant that. They need a symbolic Win here, so they can claim that the UK hasn't been allowed to cherry-pick what it wants. However, EU banks are themselves heavily dependent on passporting into the UK, and EU businesses are heavily dependent on capital-raising in London. The answer may be to keep the substance of financial passporting in another way – using the mechanism of 'regulatory equivalence'. The City gets most of what it wants, but pretends to be unhappy. EU politicians pretend that the City won't have full access to the Single Market, while their firms can continue to access London's financial might.
4. Control over immigration is a political red-line for the UK, but we can concede special rights for EU citizens in return for equivalent rights for UK citizens in the EU. Eurocrats will be able to claim a Win in that the principle that you can't be 'in' the Single Market without free movement will have been respected (see item 3). The Visegrad countries are more interested in the numbers, and in practice we in the UK need large numbers of their citizens to pick our fruit, build our houses, staff our hospitals, and care for our elderly. It should be possible to reach a deal which maintains the principle of UK sovereignty and limits peak numbers, without being too disruptive.
5. A bilateral agreement and a commitment to continue the historic special arrangements for Irish citizens will allow the Irish government to claim that Ireland's interests have been respected.
6. Finally, it might be a good symbolic concession for the UK to agree to make contributions towards specific EU programmes. This will allow the EU to claim a Win, and help get the consent of the minor players for our more important objectives.
But enough in there for both sides to claim victory and the hardcore REMAINers and Leavers to cry betrayal.
Everyone happy..0 -
Trump appears not to be interested in the ground game. Any activity seems to being organized by RNC on a state basis to be focussed on down ticket candidates iirc. Really either doesn't want to win, or he sincerely believes that non of the rules around winning elections apply to him.Alistair said:
I'll repost the article about the Dems GOTV operation - the Republicans have nothing like this. It is a hard thing to grasp the scope and scale of it, the Dems have every single person individually mapped for likelyhood to vote and likelyhood to vote Dem/Rep.david_herdson said:
I'd agree with that. I have my scepticism about the messenger but I do get the impression that enough swing voters have woken up since the first debate to the fact that the election isn't a reality game show to make it an awfully big ask for Trump now.GIN1138 said:
The game may well be up for the Donald but I wouldn't take Dan The Man's word for it to be honest...rottenborough said:
Glad my bets are on HRC.619 said:
Yeah, if true, then Trump has no path pretty much. He needs Florida.david_herdson said:
If true, Trump has lost.AndyJS said:
If true, Trump needs to focus more than ever on his Rust Belt strategy.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
Clinton team think they have Florida, North Carolina and Nevada "locked" as a result of early voting.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-to-rally-voters/
I'd say he needs a massive 400 pound Black Swan to save him now.0 -
I do hope so. It's time we had a proper decent left of centre party not the malign rubbish Labour is turning itself into.SeanT said:
I genuinely think Labour is finished now. Their decline and fall in Scotland will be repeated in Wales and much of northern England. They will be left with London and a few core cities. 20%.old_labour said:19.5% swing from Lab to SNP in Glasgow last night.
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sneaky:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 4m4 minutes ago
Told Jon Ashworth has been offered shadow health secretary in return for giving up his NEC seat.0 -
Dan Hodges
Told Jon Ashworth has been offered shadow health secretary in return for giving up his NEC seat.0 -
I think it's more serious than 1992. That was reversible in the sense that the UK never joined the Euro.Gardenwalker said:As the investment note TSE posted above noted, the markets are starting to factor in a hard Brexit, and a determined attempt to reduce immigration.
Both of these will have significant economic penalties, for the UK and Europe.
This is not a zero sum game. What is lost here --- in terms of future growth not delivered, innovations unmade, and companies unfounded --- will not be compensated for elsewhere. See the 1930s protectionist spiral for more detail.
We are, playing a game of chicken with our economy. Sterling is an advance indicator.
There is comfort in that sterling was previously overvalued and we do in fact need a dose of inflation, but the macro omens are not good.
Also, global perceptions and are turning against us and as yet we have not provided any counter to that. Brexit has bewildered global opinion and is generally understood as a protectionist, nativist measure. Our reputation for political stability has taken a knock too.
We should also be aware that comments like Amber Rudd's do in fact reverberate globally in a way that doesn't happen to equivalents in most other countries. This is the dark side to London being a global, English-speaking media capital. We are coming across as anti-foreigner. Whether this is Rudd's fault, or the Guardian's reporting, or a misunderstanding of foreign opinion doesn't matter - it is what it is.
Buckle down. This is a kind of politico-economic 2008 or 1992 or even 1956. One feasible outcome is a noticeably impoverished UK relative to other first world countries. Another, less feasible in my opinion, is a "Singapore of the North Atlantic". The next few years will be very turbulent and in my opinion the Treasury forecasts for "lost growth" by 2020 are an underestimate. Hope I'm wrong!
More on a par with Suez 1956 or Iraq 2003.
Cameron must have sleepless nights wishing he'd never heard the 'R' word. To be compared to Eden ... aargh.0 -
On balance they might as well strike - just for the time off before the weather closes in.tlg86 said:
By who? Not the guards, their role has been/will be abolished. Drivers get paid a lot - do they really care that much about the plight of the guards?TCPoliticalBetting said:
It does seem to be heading for a showdown. Will an all out strike be the response?PlatoSaid said:Guards working for @SouthernRailUK are being issued with three months' notice of the termination of their contracts from today. https://t.co/e51omayzha
Driverless trains are still a while away but it's only a matter of time before they're toast too.0 -
Gerrymandering. But then it just overturns a gerrymander of 2000 which itself negated a gerrymander of 1985. Ain't democracy wonderful.PlatoSaid said:
Twas in the tory GE manifesto btw.0 -
I think overall this is probably where we are heading, but the journey is going to be tough and we're not going to get there immediately. In between this result stand a fair few political obstacles. One will be cleared away by the French electorate early next year. The rest will be trying to get the elected representatives on side and then delivering a deal to the commission which they must implement giving them no latitude to change it.Richard_Nabavi said:....
6. Finally, it might be a good symbolic concession for the UK to agree to make contributions towards specific EU programmes. This will allow the EU to claim a Win, and help get the consent of the minor players for our more important objectives.0
