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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other side of the table. How the EU is shaping up to approach Brexit negotiations

To date, most British commentary on the impending negotiations on Brexit have concentrated on what negotiating position Britain might take, as Theresa May’s government gropes towards a tenable approach.  It takes two to tango and so we need to consider how the EU is going to negotiate also.  This has been given much less attention.

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RobD

First on this phantom thread?

RobD

RobD said:

First on this phantom thread?

Ah, now it's popped up on the vanilla site.

Sunil_Prasannan

Czech Republic?

FrancisUrquhart

Still up....like FOREX traders....

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Still up....like FOREX traders....

They've got nothing on OGH in terms of wiping trillions from the stock markets

Sunil_Prasannan

SeanT said:

lol "It gets worse"

It gets worse. Mister Hitler not only intends to send the accepted V1 rockets, but the new V2s as well. Unless we compromise on Free Movement, he fully intends to proceed with Treblinka, alongside the agreed facilities at Auschwitz

We're out. If they don't like what we're doing, we're hard out. Hard Brexit. Fuck them. And we will survive. Bunch of commies and Nazis anyhow

You better get used to it, Alastair, because this will, increasingly, be the mood of the British people. We saw what happened to Project Fear in the referendum, Project Crush the Brits will get an even more ferocious response. We will otherise them, they will otherise us.

I suspect wiser heads than yours will prevail. But if they don't, the British will endure.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/732785721145188352

RobD

Alastair: you know you've made it once you've become a meme!

AndyJS

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Czech Republic?

Also Czechia since 2nd May 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic#Etymology

RobD

AndyJS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Czech Republic?

Also Czechia since 2nd May 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic#Etymology

Czechia? Huh! (I notice it's not yet in my dictionary)

RobD

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

williamglenn

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

MTimT

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Czech Republic?

Also Czechia since 2nd May 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic#Etymology

Czechia? Huh! (I notice it's not yet in my dictionary)

Seems they want to be confused with Chechnya.

pinkrose

Of course in the minds of Remainers no Pole would ever commit a hate crime.....or maybe not........

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/men-pelt-worshippers-mosque-bacon-8984499#ICID=sharebar_twitter

dugarbandier

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/tony-blair-says-his-return-to-british-politics-is-an-open-question

time to buy shares in popcorn?

dugarbandier

dugarbandier said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/tony-blair-says-his-return-to-british-politics-is-an-open-question

time to buy shares in popcorn?

as someone posts below the line there — there's a vacancy at UKIP

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Extensively

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-has-called-the-polish-prime-minister-to-express-deep-regret-over-post-brexit-attacks-a7235046.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/senior-polish-ministers-head-to-uk-for-emergency-meeting-after-a/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-essex-37270519

RobD

dugarbandier said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/tony-blair-says-his-return-to-british-politics-is-an-open-question

time to buy shares in popcorn?

Where's TSE and his bar chart of years since GE victory, as I recall the "New Labour (War Criminal)" party had a much better showing than the Labour party.

RobD

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

Gotta get the tongues wagging below the line...

RobD

Finally caught up with May's speech. Her tanks are all over the middle ground now.

Charles

RobD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

Gotta get the tongues wagging below the line...

MIND BLEACH!

SirBernard

Thank you for the interesting read. It seems once again the main enemy of pro-EU people in the UK is the EU itself. People like Nick Clegg and Chukka Umunna want to get a small change on free movement in order for the public to swallow staying in the single market, probably as a platform for rejoining the EU down the line. The Commission's refusal to accept any compromise at all on free movement will mean this deal is impossible, and the UK will end up instead with a Canada+ hard Brexit deal.

It is a repeat of Cameron's negotiation all over again. A complete unwillingness by the EU to take British concerns seriously will push us further and further away. I was always a reluctant Leaver, but this sort of tone makes me think we made the right decision.

RobD

Charles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

Gotta get the tongues wagging below the line...

MIND BLEACH!

Still after the watershed here old boy!

CarlottaVance

On topic. Yes, it will be tough, but both sides are setting out their negotiating positions- only an idiot (and there are a few on here) who demand to know what the UK will settle for - or even that we guarantee the rights of EU citizens here before we have secured similar right for UK citizens in te EU.

MTimT

SirBernard said:

Thank you for the interesting read. It seems once again the main enemy of pro-EU people in the UK is the EU itself. People like Nick Clegg and Chukka Umunna want to get a small change on free movement in order for the public to swallow staying in the single market, probably as a platform for rejoining the EU down the line. The Commission's refusal to accept any compromise at all on free movement will mean this deal is impossible, and the UK will end up instead with a Canada+ hard Brexit deal.

It is a repeat of Cameron's negotiation all over again. A complete unwillingness by the EU to take British concerns seriously will push us further and further away. I was always a reluctant Leaver, but this sort of tone makes me think we made the right decision.

Indeed. It could be a very short Art. 50 negotiation.

Brits: We shall no longer be bound by new EU directives (except re our exports into the Single Market) and shall not accept the remit of the ECJ. We shall decide who we let into our country. With that in mind, what do you, the EU, want to do about free trade in goods and services, and other areas of cooperation?

EU: Without the four freedoms, nothing.

Brits: Nothing it is.

old_labour

19.5% swing from Lab to SNP in Glasgow last night.

MTimT

SeanT said:

ZULUS

FAAASANDS OF EM

This is where we are now. Theresa May is Michael Caine. Britain is crouched and ready, but nervous. The gibbering EU spearchuckers are coming, wave after wave

Steady, boys. Steady

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWuaSww3JnA

There will either be no deal or the EU's insistence on freedom of movement will be the first red line to fall.

Charles

MTimT said:

SeanT said:

ZULUS

FAAASANDS OF EM

This is where we are now. Theresa May is Michael Caine. Britain is crouched and ready, but nervous. The gibbering EU spearchuckers are coming, wave after wave

Steady, boys. Steady

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWuaSww3JnA

There will either be no deal or the EU's insistence on freedom of movement will be the first red line to fall.

You got the metaphor the wrong way round!

*We're* the heroic red line of Welshmen. *They're* the gibbering hordes.

RobD

SeanT said:

old_labour said:

19.5% swing from Lab to SNP in Glasgow last night.

I genuinely think Labour is finished now. Their decline and fall in Scotland will be repeated in Wales and much of northern England. They will be left with London and a few core cities. 20%.

Back to the Tories and the Liberals?

tlg86

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

The classic case of "my enemy's enemy is my friend." Obviously Alastair doesn't mix with the riff raff that voted against having immigrants foist upon them by Germany.

Scott_P

Morning all

I see our resident wealthy metropolitan elite Brexiteers are talking up "hard" Brexit, flaunting our supposed economic virility and masculinity in the faces of the effete Eurocrats.

They really are claiming "Come ahead if you think you're HARD enough" is a cogent negotiating position

We had a dramatic demonstration of what happens in that case yesterday

It leaves you sprawled on the floor waiting for an ambulance...

dugarbandier

RobD said:

SeanT said:

old_labour said:

19.5% swing from Lab to SNP in Glasgow last night.

I genuinely think Labour is finished now. Their decline and fall in Scotland will be repeated in Wales and much of northern England. They will be left with London and a few core cities. 20%.

Back to the Tories and the Liberals?

"sealed train for Blair"

IanB2

$1.24 in sight

RobD

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

JackW

Overnight polling :

Ohio .. Clinton 44 .. Trump 43 - PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_100616.pdf

Arizona .. Clinton 42 .. Trump 42 - OH Predictive Insight

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-5C5134BA69C80539

Washington .. Clinton 47 .. Trump 31 - Strategies 360

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-5C5134BA69C80539

Massachusetts .. Clinton 58 .. Trump 28 - Western New England University

http://www1.wne.edu/news/2016/10/poll-mass-presidential.cfm

surbiton

Scott_P said:

Morning all

I see our resident wealthy metropolitan elite Brexiteers are talking up "hard" Brexit, flaunting our supposed economic virility and masculinity in the faces of the effete Eurocrats.

They really are claiming "Come ahead if you think you're HARD enough" is a cogent negotiating position

We had a dramatic demonstration of what happens in that case yesterday

It leaves you sprawled on the floor waiting for an ambulance...

We are truly f***ed with that lot in charge. Whatever happens, they will claim all the sacrifices were worth it. We have got independence.

I don't read anymore that the EU will roll out the Single Market red carpet because "they need it". Something about balance of payments deficit ? The BoP deficit will only be larger because we will not export Qashqai's but will continue to import BMW's.

Chelyabinsk

"Few have commented on Jean–Claude Juncker having appointed Michel Barnier as the Commission’s Mr Brexit...M. Barnier is going to be taking the lead on negotiations for the entire EU"

Article 50 (2): In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
Article 218 (3): The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union's negotiating team.

Casino_Royale

Thanks to Alastair for the article, and for putting that table together.

The relevant pragmatism of the Baltic States is interesting.

Assuming they don't have special affection for the UK (possible, but something of a stretch) one wonders if they recognise the need for strong UK engagement with the EU - and support from the UK military in future - to help bolster their defences against Russia.

PlatoSaid

Hmm, I'm not surprised.

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/5/police-officers-more-hesitant-to-shoot-black-suspe/

It’s widely assumed that white police officers are more likely to shoot black suspects as a result of racial bias, but recent research suggests the opposite is true.

An innovative study published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology found that participants in realistic simulations felt more threatened by black suspects yet took longer to pull the trigger on black men than on white or Hispanic men.

Casino_Royale

On the substance of single market participation, I believe there have been statements that one cannot have full single market participation without full freedom of movement.

IMHO, that opens up a negotiating position for the Government to argue for partial restrictions on free movement, in return for partial restrictions on access to services.

In other words, the EU can demonstrate you don't get something for nothing, and the UK won't get a say in the rules either.

Otherwise, the CETA deal would seem a good precedent for the UK.

PS. In a battle between the EU institutions (whose whole livelihood depends on the EU remaining intact, and are somewhat divorced from political reality) and the member states who fund it, are subject to national elections, and sets the EU's direction through the Council, I expect the member states to win.

Casino_Royale

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

Attacks on Polish and Czech nationals have been very small in number. I think I read attacks had increased from c.30-60 - nationwide - from memory, in the aftermath of Brexit.

Of course, that's unacceptable. But my point is that, even if those numbers are wrong, that's only 0.006% of Polish nationals in the UK. However, the increase was sufficient to generate lurid headlines about a 100% increase in attacks and provide an extra stick for some to bash Brexit with.

foxinsoxuk

SeanT said:

ZULUS

FAAASANDS OF EM

This is where we are now. Theresa May is Michael Caine. Britain is crouched and ready, but nervous. The gibbering EU spearchuckers are coming, wave after wave

Steady, boys. Steady

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWuaSww3JnA

Rourkes Drift or Isandlwana?

We don't know yet.

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

TonyE

The problem is that's even if we swallow the EEA agreement whole,we can still limit freedom of movement under Art 112/113

SouthamObserver

It's worth remembering that the European Commission works for the member states. It will have to fall in line with what they decide. As for the European parliament, it is made up of parties that are controlled from their home countries. Again, it is highly likely that the majority of its members will do what they are told to do from home. In short, the member state negotiating positions are really the only ones that matter. It's these that we need to keep an eye on. My sense is that as many of them see opportunities as see threats. The problem is that the opportunities they see come from a harder Brexit than we might want. It is going to take a hell of a lot of negotiating, which means you have to hope that Boris, Davis and Fox are kept as far away as possible from what happens.

david_herdson

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

Scott_P

SouthamObserver said:

The problem is that the opportunities they see come from a harder Brexit than we might want.

But, but, but the HARDER the better we like it, right?

That's the new Brexit orthodoxy

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

It is only fair to point out that over 50% of Hungarians did not take part in the vote. Still very nasty, though.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

Otherwise, the CETA deal would seem a good precedent for the UK.

From before the referendum:

Ceta will give Canada preferential access to the EU single market without all the obligations that Norway and Switzerland face.

According to Conservative MP David Davis, Ceta "would be a perfectly good starting point for our discussions with the Commission".

Ex-London mayor Boris Johnson has also praised the Ceta model.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36561409

SouthamObserver

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

Monksfield

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

Paul_Bedfordshire

A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:

A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)

Victory; we fight to win

Victory; is ours again

We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea

Beastly Brexiters are we.

The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.

Britain is Free. Britain is Back.

Rejoice.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrShn8PeTz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26cIjs78-8o

rkrkrk

MTimT said:

SirBernard said:

Thank you for the interesting read. It seems once again the main enemy of pro-EU people in the UK is the EU itself. People like Nick Clegg and Chukka Umunna want to get a small change on free movement in order for the public to swallow staying in the single market, probably as a platform for rejoining the EU down the line. The Commission's refusal to accept any compromise at all on free movement will mean this deal is impossible, and the UK will end up instead with a Canada+ hard Brexit deal.

It is a repeat of Cameron's negotiation all over again. A complete unwillingness by the EU to take British concerns seriously will push us further and further away. I was always a reluctant Leaver, but this sort of tone makes me think we made the right decision.

Indeed. It could be a very short Art. 50 negotiation.

Brits: We shall no longer be bound by new EU directives (except re our exports into the Single Market) and shall not accept the remit of the ECJ. We shall decide who we let into our country. With that in mind, what do you, the EU, want to do about free trade in goods and services, and other areas of cooperation?

EU: Without the four freedoms, nothing.

Brits: Nothing it is.

If it happens like this... then won't those who said it will be so easy to get a deal have been proved utterly and totally wrong?

Scott_P

rkrkrk said:

If it happens like this... then won't those who said it will be so easy to get a deal have been proved utterly and totally wrong?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, well, yes. A bit.

The new line is that NO deal is the GREAT deal they had in mind all along...

Monksfield

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

At least other countries elect more pragmatic and indeed professional MEP's thsn we do

david_herdson

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

Indigo

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

It is only fair to point out that over 50% of Hungarians did not take part in the vote. Still very nasty, though.

Subsequently research has shown that the low turnout was probably because a massive landslide to "exclude" had been heavily trailed in their press for weeks and lots of people thought in effect, why should they both going out to vote when their neighbours vote would be enough. Polling suggests the national feeling was around or slightly above 80%. The "yes" vote pretty much never polled above 15%.

MaxPB

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

At the moment it feels like traders are worried about the Bank's new drive to ignore the data. When the MPC basically comes out and says we're going to do what we want, fuck the data, it turns into a manipulation game. There was a large drop at midnight which looks like fat finger syndrome, or possibly something worse.

david_herdson

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

I'm pretty sure that none will necessarily have to. Whether any chooses to is a different matter.

SouthamObserver

There is no doubt Spain sees opportunities. For the Partido Popular, Gibraltar is a very big deal:
http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/10/06/inenglish/1475762366_981489.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/784278531656122368

Faster, deeper, HARDER...

dugarbandier

PlatoSaid said:

Hmm, I'm not surprised.

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/5/police-officers-more-hesitant-to-shoot-black-suspe/

It’s widely assumed that white police officers are more likely to shoot black suspects as a result of racial bias, but recent research suggests the opposite is true.

An innovative study published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology found that participants in realistic simulations felt more threatened by black suspects yet took longer to pull the trigger on black men than on white or Hispanic men.

realistic simulations apart from the fact that the participants were not police officers

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-014-9204-9

so really, this study is looking at a different subject, only peripherally connected to the issue at hand

dugarbandier

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/784278531656122368

Faster, deeper, HARDER...

our northern powerhouse producing eccles cakes for the world market is just about to go into overdrive

SouthamObserver

We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules:
So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms).
http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e

Gadfly

Will the smaller EU countries have much say upon the outcome or will qualified majority voting apply?

ThreeQuidder

SouthamObserver said:

We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules:
So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms).
http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e

I'm amazed that this has become the election where 4chan has actually been taken seriously.

Alistair

I see Trump's African American 'outreach' involved refusing admit he was wrong about the Central Park 5 yesterday.

Such pivoting, much centre.

MarqueeMark

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

I'm pretty sure that none will necessarily have to. Whether any chooses to is a different matter.

What will the German people think of having to be effectively the sole ATM for the EU? Especially as they will get no extra powers resulting from the UK up and leaving. Isn't that the sort of situation where the German high courts get involved - as it could be argued that picking up the post-Brexit tab for the EU will be "impairing the Bundestag's overall budgetary responsibility"?

https://www.ft.com/content/ac3a89c2-f382-388f-b4e6-d1b657361db8

JonathanD

Scott_P said:

rkrkrk said:

If it happens like this... then won't those who said it will be so easy to get a deal have been proved utterly and totally wrong?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, well, yes. A bit.

The new line is that NO deal is the GREAT deal they had in mind all along...

I'm all in favour of not having cake and not eating it.

Alistair

dugarbandier said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hmm, I'm not surprised.

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/5/police-officers-more-hesitant-to-shoot-black-suspe/

It’s widely assumed that white police officers are more likely to shoot black suspects as a result of racial bias, but recent research suggests the opposite is true.

An innovative study published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology found that participants in realistic simulations felt more threatened by black suspects yet took longer to pull the trigger on black men than on white or Hispanic men.

realistic simulations apart from the fact that the participants were not police officers

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-014-9204-9

so really, this study is looking at a different subject, only peripherally connected to the issue at hand

Oh, you went and read the source and spoiled the narrative. Sad.

Jonathan

This Sterling crisis is worrying.

david_herdson

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."

I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?

Did you feel the shame?

Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.

I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????

And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.

Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.

It is only fair to point out that over 50% of Hungarians did not take part in the vote. Still very nasty, though.

That was a deliberate choice by those opposed not to participate and so to keep the referendum under the qualifying threshold though, wasn't it?

It is a particularly stupid and perverse rule (which the government here seems keen to repeat re union ballots), which sets a turnout threshold independent of the level of support for a proposition. So, for example, if you need a 50%+ share on a 50%+ turnout, you could have approval with 26% positive support if you won 51-49 on a 51% tournout, but fail to qualify with, say, 45% support if those opposed boycott the poll, as was effectively the case in Hungary, resulting in a 100-0 poll on 45% turnout.

PlatoSaid

ThreeQuidder said:

SouthamObserver said:

We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules:
So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms).
http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e

I'm amazed that this has become the election where 4chan has actually been taken seriously.

It's so bizarre - because the media is giving these pranksters just the absurd publicity they're after.

It's like taking Candid Camera seriously.

Bromptonaut

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:

A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)

Victory; we fight to win

Victory; is ours again

We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea

Beastly Brexiters are we.

The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.

Britain is Free. Britain is Back.

Rejoice.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrShn8PeTz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26cIjs78-8o

Idiot.

david_herdson

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

I'm pretty sure that none will necessarily have to. Whether any chooses to is a different matter.

What will the German people think of having to be effectively the sole ATM for the EU? Especially as they will get no extra powers resulting from the UK up and leaving. Isn't that the sort of situation where the German high courts get involved - as it could be argued that picking up the post-Brexit tab for the EU will be "impairing the Bundestag's overall budgetary responsibility"?

https://www.ft.com/content/ac3a89c2-f382-388f-b4e6-d1b657361db8

I suspect it wouldn't be a block. Even if the Court ruled as such (which isn't impossible); it'd simply mean that the government would have to raise taxes or cut domestic spending. Obviously, that wouldn't necessarily go down well in Germany but it wouldn't hold up the deal.

david_herdson

Jonathan said:

This Sterling crisis is worrying.

Why?

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

The markets have hugely overreacted to Brexit, and it smacks of panic dumping of Sterling. A lot of it seems to be auto trades that trigger a sell off when a search algorithm finds a new news story on Brexit!

Silly.

I'd be buying Sterling now if i wasn't already in it.

dugarbandier

Alistair said:

dugarbandier said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hmm, I'm not surprised.

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/5/police-officers-more-hesitant-to-shoot-black-suspe/

It’s widely assumed that white police officers are more likely to shoot black suspects as a result of racial bias, but recent research suggests the opposite is true.

An innovative study published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology found that participants in realistic simulations felt more threatened by black suspects yet took longer to pull the trigger on black men than on white or Hispanic men.

realistic simulations apart from the fact that the participants were not police officers

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-014-9204-9

so really, this study is looking at a different subject, only peripherally connected to the issue at hand

Oh, you went and read the source and spoiled the narrative. Sad.

#sad

open access journals are good sometimes. (although bloody expensive to publish in. A right scam)

Monksfield

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:

A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)

Victory; we fight to win

Victory; is ours again

We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea

Beastly Brexiters are we.

The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.

Britain is Free. Britain is Back.

Rejoice.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrShn8PeTz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26cIjs78-8o

Yes, it's back to the days of the band playing on as the Titanic sank. And the rich, (some) women and children made the lifeboats that time.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

There is no doubt Spain sees opportunities. For the Partido Popular, Gibraltar is a very big deal:
http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/10/06/inenglish/1475762366_981489.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

Theresa May isn't going to negotiate over Gibraltar.

Spain would be playing silly buggers over it even if we'd voted to Remain, and they've ramped up their challenge over the rock in recent years anyway, which is why the naval squadron is being reinforced.

david_herdson

Gadfly said:

Will the smaller EU countries have much say upon the outcome or will qualified majority voting apply?

QMV applies. From Article 50:

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. [to do with the 2-year exit period]

4. [to do with the exiting state not being represented in the EU negotiating team] . A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

MaxPB

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

The markets have hugely overreacted to Brexit, and it smacks of panic dumping of Sterling. A lot of it seems to be auto trades that trigger a sell off when a search algorithm finds a new news story on Brexit!

Silly.

I'd be buying Sterling now if i wasn't already in it.

I wouldn't. Not until the Bank indicates that there are to be no further rate cuts or QE. That's the main driver of this, no one knows how low or negative the Bank is willing to go, until a floor is declared Sterling will keep dropping. Even positive data won't help now they they have apparently dumped the data driven approach in favour of working from their own forecasting.

Pulpstar

Who would have thought that my best investment would be buying € from work for my holiday at 1.197 !
My Dad informs me there were no remoaners at the Tory conference
Currently waiting for TOM7502 to head off

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules:
So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms).
http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e

What does 'pb-er' mean?

JonathanD

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

I'm pretty sure that none will necessarily have to. Whether any chooses to is a different matter.

What will the German people think of having to be effectively the sole ATM for the EU? Especially as they will get no extra powers resulting from the UK up and leaving. Isn't that the sort of situation where the German high courts get involved - as it could be argued that picking up the post-Brexit tab for the EU will be "impairing the Bundestag's overall budgetary responsibility"?

https://www.ft.com/content/ac3a89c2-f382-388f-b4e6-d1b657361db8

The Germans might be quite pleased at becoming the dominant power in Europe without even having to fire a shot. A few billion exra is a tiny percent of their GDP and I imagine most of it will come back to them in the form of extra BMw sales.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

The markets have hugely overreacted to Brexit, and it smacks of panic dumping of Sterling. A lot of it seems to be auto trades that trigger a sell off when a search algorithm finds a new news story on Brexit!.

Apparently an algorithm picked up the FT Hollande story in the gap between New York's close & Tokyo's open so dumped sterling in an illiquid market....which triggered other algorithms to do the same......so, business as usual - we get to blame the French

Alistair

Florida registration closes in 5 days, Governor is refusing to extend it in light of the hurricane.

In 2012 50,000 registered in the last week. Obama won by 74,000 votes so that is a number high enough to matter.

Monksfield

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

Our politicians and for that matter our commentariat look to the rest of the world like a bunch of spoilt and self centred children. Naturally this breeds concern elsewhere.

The rest of the world is literally looking on aghast.

Jonathan

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

This Sterling crisis is worrying.

Why?

Confidence seems to be low and a gulf is opening between the markets and political sentiment , which never ends well.

MaxPB

JonathanD said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.

The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.

On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.

More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.

I'm pretty sure that none will necessarily have to. Whether any chooses to is a different matter.

What will the German people think of having to be effectively the sole ATM for the EU? Especially as they will get no extra powers resulting from the UK up and leaving. Isn't that the sort of situation where the German high courts get involved - as it could be argued that picking up the post-Brexit tab for the EU will be "impairing the Bundestag's overall budgetary responsibility"?

https://www.ft.com/content/ac3a89c2-f382-388f-b4e6-d1b657361db8

The Germans might be quite pleased at becoming the dominant power in Europe without even having to fire a shot. A few billion exra is a tiny percent of their GDP and I imagine most of it will come back to them in the form of extra BMw sales.

That you don't realise they already have that position is why you voted Remain.

TCPoliticalBetting

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?
The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong.

We have a BofE Governor acting as if we are going to have a recession and a Chancellor saying there is trouble ahead. Traders listen.

Monksfield

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

This Sterling crisis is worrying.

Why?

Because it's a cast iron indicator that investors have no confidence in us or the people leading us.

PlatoSaid

The more that comes out, the more bizarre and bent it becomes

http://nypost.com/2016/10/06/fbi-agents-are-ready-to-revolt-over-the-cozy-clinton-probe/

foxinsoxuk

Bromptonaut said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:

A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)

Victory; we fight to win

Victory; is ours again

We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea

Beastly Brexiters are we.

The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.

Britain is Free. Britain is Back.

Rejoice.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrShn8PeTz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26cIjs78-8o

Idiot.

Pernaps something a little more rousing?

https://youtu.be/29Mg6Gfh9Co

Gadfly

david_herdson said:

Gadfly said:

Will the smaller EU countries have much say upon the outcome or will qualified majority voting apply?

QMV applies. From Article 50:

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. [to do with the 2-year exit period]

4. [to do with the exiting state not being represented in the EU negotiating team] . A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

Thanks David. Surely this means that if we can strike a deal that suits France, Germany, Italy and Spain then we could be more or less home and dry?

PlatoSaid

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

The markets have hugely overreacted to Brexit, and it smacks of panic dumping of Sterling. A lot of it seems to be auto trades that trigger a sell off when a search algorithm finds a new news story on Brexit!.

Apparently an algorithm picked up the FT Hollande story in the gap between New York's close & Tokyo's open so dumped sterling in an illiquid market....which triggered other algorithms to do the same......so, business as usual - we get to blame the French

LOL

Jonathan

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:

A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)

Victory; we fight to win

Victory; is ours again

We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea

Beastly Brexiters are we.

The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.

Britain is Free. Britain is Back.

Rejoice.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrShn8PeTz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26cIjs78-8o

Idiot.

Pernaps something a little more rousing?

https://youtu.be/29Mg6Gfh9Co

https://youtu.be/ReIAna459sg

Paul_Bedfordshire

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:

A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)

Victory; we fight to win

Victory; is ours again

We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea

Beastly Brexiters are we.

The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.

Britain is Free. Britain is Back.

Rejoice.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrShn8PeTz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26cIjs78-8o

Idiot.

Pernaps something a little more rousing?

https://youtu.be/29Mg6Gfh9Co

The EUs negotiation team responds I see.

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?

The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.

The markets have hugely overreacted to Brexit, and it smacks of panic dumping of Sterling. A lot of it seems to be auto trades that trigger a sell off when a search algorithm finds a new news story on Brexit!

Silly.

I'd be buying Sterling now if i wasn't already in it.

I wouldn't. Not until the Bank indicates that there are to be no further rate cuts or QE. That's the main driver of this, no one knows how low or negative the Bank is willing to go, until a floor is declared Sterling will keep dropping. Even positive data won't help now they they have apparently dumped the data driven approach in favour of working from their own forecasting.

I disagree. Unless you take the view not to buy because everyone else is so mad that it will continue to fall, which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Government has indicated it is minded to now use fiscal policy and that QE has run its course. I'm not seeing any noises from the BoE that they're even thinking of further rate cuts - because the economy is doing fine and still expanding. This year, at the fastest rate in the G7.

Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.

There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.

david_herdson

TCPoliticalBetting said:

david_herdson said:

Monksfield said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

$1.24 in sight

Has been pretty stable for the last few hours

Hasn't been below $1.24 for over 4 hours.....

Anyone would think IanB2 enjoys bad news?

I wonder why?

Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.

It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?
The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong.

We have a BofE Governor acting as if we are going to have a recession and a Chancellor saying there is trouble ahead. Traders listen.

Traders need to engage their brain then. The BoE acted early and quite possibly prematurely. Taking early action might have been necessary and the risk of doing too much might have outweighed the risk of doing too little but traders shouldn't assume that decisions made on projections formed in the first few weeks after the Brexit vote (or even before it) still apply. Sure, there might be a slowdown in growth and Hammond is right to flag that up. It doesn't mean that we're going to revisit 2008-12.