Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.
It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?
The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.
Our politicians and for that matter our commentariat look to the rest of the world like a bunch of spoilt and self centred children. Naturally this breeds concern elsewhere.
The rest of the world is literally looking on aghast.
A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:
A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)
Victory; we fight to win
Victory; is ours again
We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea
Beastly Brexiters are we.
The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.
We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules: So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms). http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e
I'm amazed that this has become the election where 4chan has actually been taken seriously.
It's so bizarre - because the media is giving these pranksters just the absurd publicity they're after.
It's like taking Candid Camera seriously.
Then need to try something, they are about to go bust
Who would have thought that my best investment would be buying € from work for my holiday at 1.197 ! My Dad informs me there were no remoaners at the Tory conference Currently waiting for TOM7502 to head off
Seen it all before. Went to Paris on a minibreak in Spring 2009 when Sterling was only buying euros at 1.08.
Annoying but the pound goes up, the pound goes down, and we avoided the very painful recessions and large spikes in unemployment that other eurozone countries faced.
A message to Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Verhofstadt, and politicians from Romania, Croatia, the Czechs, Austria, Latvia, Sweden, France and Germany and Spanish politicians who impudently think they can cause trouble over Gibraltar:
A message to arrogant and impudent multinationals and international organisations who lied to us before the referendum with false doom. (The foreign multinationals in particular would do well to look at the message the video gives)
Victory; we fight to win
Victory; is ours again
We are the scourge of the Brussels and the Sea
Beastly Brexiters are we.
The EU don't like Us. We Don't Care. Come and take us on if you think you are hard enough.
Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.
It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?
The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.
Our politicians and for that matter our commentariat look to the rest of the world like a bunch of spoilt and self centred children. Naturally this breeds concern elsewhere.
The rest of the world is literally looking on aghast.
And your evidence for this is?
Since they are 'literally' looking on aghast, I'm looking forward to quite a long list.....
Just a thought about the slide in sterling. With sterling vs the Euro being so low, then irrespective of whatever tariff may be brought in will U.K. exports to Europe still be cheaper than they were pre June 23?
Who would have thought that my best investment would be buying € from work for my holiday at 1.197 ! My Dad informs me there were no remoaners at the Tory conference Currently waiting for TOM7502 to head off
Seen it all before. Went to Paris on a minibreak in Spring 2009 when Sterling was only buying euros at 1.08.
Annoying but the pound goes up, the pound goes down, and we avoided the very painful recessions and large spikes in unemployment that other eurozone countries faced.
Yep - had to argue with that. The benefits of controlling your own currency far outweigh the downsides.
Lucy Fisher, for The Times, reports suggestions that Woolfe could be suspended from the party for his role in the altercation, scuppering his chances of replacing Diane James who quit as leader after just 18 days. Woolfe missed out in the last contest because his paperwork was late.
The hypothesis behind the concerns being expressed by various posters about the "meaning" of the fall of sterling is that someone is actually applying their brain to this and coming to a conclusion. What we in fact have are computers programmed to make profits in the next fraction of a second by anticipating a fall in sterling and shorting it.
Cumulatively, it can become a self fulfilling prophecy and sterling does fall but it is not because there has been a loss of confidence, it is simply an opportunity for short term profits.
Normally our concern about a fall in sterling would be that we would be importing inflation. Right now we desperately need inflation and we also need to close our appalling trade deficit. The latter is a long term proposition at best and it is all too likely that we will see a J shaped increase in the deficit in the very short term but the fact is that the fall in sterling has already boosted the competitiveness of UK exports to the EU by more than the tariffs that would apply in a WTO Brexit.
Falling sterling has been very closely linked in the public mind to a weak economy since at least the 60s and that perception is not completely wrong but the fact is in or out of the EU we simply cannot continue to buy far more goods and services to consume than we make forever. These adjustments need to be made whatever happens with Brexit.
Because it's a cast iron indicator that investors have no confidence in us or the people leading us.
Well the government still has plenty of debt to sell. Let's see how that goes. Frankly, while markets are the best mechanism for trade, it doesn't stop them engaging in sheep-like actions from time to time. This, I suspect, is one such time.
It's not a crisis; it's an opportunity to sell stuff.
BlueRog: Probably not for many things, because the cost of raw materials and inputs will rise. For food, for instance, pretty much all fert is imported these days.
Because it's a cast iron indicator that investors have no confidence in us or the people leading us.
Well the government still has plenty of debt to sell. Let's see how that goes. Frankly, while markets are the best mechanism for trade, it doesn't stop them engaging in sheep-like actions from time to time. This, I suspect, is one such time.
It's not a crisis; it's an opportunity to sell stuff.
Lucy Fisher, for The Times, reports suggestions that Woolfe could be suspended from the party for his role in the altercation, scuppering his chances of replacing Diane James who quit as leader after just 18 days. Woolfe missed out in the last contest because his paperwork was late.
You can bet Hamilton is on the phone to his cronies suggesting just that right now, of course they will probably lose Arron Bank's money if they do.
Lucy Fisher, for The Times, reports suggestions that Woolfe could be suspended from the party for his role in the altercation, scuppering his chances of replacing Diane James who quit as leader after just 18 days. Woolfe missed out in the last contest because his paperwork was late.
And if such shenanigans don't get Woolfe to return to the Tories....
I disagree. Unless you take the view not to buy because everyone else is so mad that it will continue to fall, which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Government has indicated it is minded to now use fiscal policy and that QE has run its course. I'm not seeing any noises from the BoE that they're even thinking of further rate cuts - because the economy is doing fine and still expanding. This year, at the fastest rate in the G7.
Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.
There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.
I think that's all fair, but I don't think traders are engaging their brains properly just yet so there is still a fair amount of downside. If the Bank comes out and says "no more rate cuts" next week then it would be a good time to buy. Right now we've just had a Bank deputy tell the markets that they are happy to ignore positive data and sentiment recovery in favour of their own forecasts which are more negative as justification for further action. At the moment there is no floor established, it feels like the Bank are going to cut rates come what may, if that stance is reversed then I'd be looking to buy. Plus there is strong data coming from the US which could send Sterling down a bit more.
Because it's a cast iron indicator that investors have no confidence in us or the people leading us.
Well the government still has plenty of debt to sell. Let's see how that goes. Frankly, while markets are the best mechanism for trade, it doesn't stop them engaging in sheep-like actions from time to time. This, I suspect, is one such time.
It's not a crisis; it's an opportunity to sell stuff.
This exactly the divergence between political and market sentiment that makes me concerned. The politicians are gung ho, the markets say careful now.
Intriguing hint by Blair about a return to UK politics. Can't see how the modern Labour party would even give him a fringe slot never mind a seat or HoL place.
A new party initially led by Blair, money from Sainsbury and co? Could completely upset the political apple cart.
F1: not checked to see how practice went yet, but I'll likely put up the pre-qualifying piece today. Still need ti discover whether it's live on Channel 4 this weekend.
Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.
There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.
It's not just the cost of the trading rules, it's also the lost benefit of all the productive people who would otherwise have moved to Britain to work, and all the talented British people who will leave to work or start businesses in other parts of the world because if they stay in Britain they can't work with the best people from other countries.
A 1/4 difference in economic output doesn't sound far off (although I don't think that's exactly what the exchange rate measures.)
Once upon a time, Tories cared about the value of the £. We've now lost 40 cents against AUD since the middle of June. It's beginning to look pretty grim.
It's beginning to look like the markets have taken leave of their collective senses (or are suffering from a belief in group delusion). What has materially happened since June that actually means that the country's lost a sixth or so of its value?
The stats coming out seem to still be fairly strong. Sure, the rate cut and extra QE reduce Sterling's attractiveness but that's relatively trivial. Even a hard Brexit is far from a massive imposition: most economic activity is domestic, the UK trades with the rest of the world and trade with the EU will go on, if not quite so easily. Yes, there will be knock-on effects if there's more paperwork and even tariffs but it wouldn't be a cataclysm.
Our politicians and for that matter our commentariat look to the rest of the world like a bunch of spoilt and self centred children. Naturally this breeds concern elsewhere.
The rest of the world is literally looking on aghast.
And your evidence for this is?
Oh come on, get out of your bubble. A country that the world looked up to is behaving like it's joined two opposing sects of the Branch Davidians, an MP murdered in the street, MEPs having a fight in the European Parliament. What do you think we look like to the rest of the world?
Lucy Fisher, for The Times, reports suggestions that Woolfe could be suspended from the party for his role in the altercation, scuppering his chances of replacing Diane James who quit as leader after just 18 days. Woolfe missed out in the last contest because his paperwork was late.
You can bet Hamilton is on the phone to his cronies suggesting just that right now, of course they will probably lose Arron Bank's money if they do.
It would be bonkers to elect a leader who openly talked of joining a rival party.
On topic, yes, it's going to be a hard Brexit. We'll be out of the SM because the 4 freedoms seem to be a red line and Britain can't and won't sign up to freedom of movement. Or to be subject to the ECJ and Commission directives, which full membership of the SM would imply. This should have been obvious as soon as a Three Plus Freedoms deal became unrealistic.
The danger is the European Parliament. Governments generally act responsibly and can be expected to aim to reach a compromise, even if there's hard bargaining. The EP, however, is a different matter. Firstly, there's much less control over it by its appointed leaders so even if a deal is struck, there's much less assurance that it'll be ratified. But secondly, it has much more of an institutional sense of a European mission. Brexit threatens that mission (in some ways; arguably, it removes a significant restraining factor on federalism), and some MEPs will not be co-operative. As the EP has a veto on the deal (unlike the Visegrad four, even acting together), that represents a serious risk - probably the most serious risk - to a smooth Brexit.
On a matter as grave as Brexit MEPs will do as instructed from home. The parties they are members of ultimately have very strong control as they are in charge of the lists that are put in front of voters. Expect a lot of heat and fury, but a vote in favour of whatever deal is reached.
More interestingly, I wonder if any member state has to put the deal to a referendum before it can be ratified.
I'm pretty sure that none will necessarily have to. Whether any chooses to is a different matter.
What will the German people think of having to be effectively the sole ATM for the EU? Especially as they will get no extra powers resulting from the UK up and leaving. Isn't that the sort of situation where the German high courts get involved - as it could be argued that picking up the post-Brexit tab for the EU will be "impairing the Bundestag's overall budgetary responsibility"?
The Germans might be quite pleased at becoming the dominant power in Europe without even having to fire a shot. A few billion exra is a tiny percent of their GDP and I imagine most of it will come back to them in the form of extra BMw sales.
That you don't realise they already have that position is why you voted Remain.
Whereas now we have a hard Brexit and Mays statist nonsense to put up with. Not really the global free trading EEA we were promised.
Sterling will continue to fall to 1:15 to the dollar.and parity against the Euro. The Brexit negotiations will take 5 minutes and basically consist of piss off Britain.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."
I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?
Did you feel the shame?
Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.
I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????
And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.
Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.
It is only fair to point out that over 50% of Hungarians did not take part in the vote. Still very nasty, though.
Edmund Burke said that "I do not know the method of drawing up an indictment against a whole people." You seem to, though, so you must be cleverer than him. 50% of Hungarians, Americans and the British are in your view untermenschen for differing from you on political issues. Is it really very nasty not to want ones country to go the way Sweden has gone?
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Surely the local party would just let him run unopposed if he went as an independent. That way there's nothing to lose and on everything else he'll vote with the government.
Given control of freedom of movement is non negotiable from the point of view of UK voters then WTO rules will have to be used if the EU refuses to budge at all and that means some tariffs on EU goods and services coming to the UK as well as UK goods and services going to the EU. In the meantime while EU leaders continue to have their head in the sand over migration and border controls, the far right will continue to grow
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Re Blair, it would be a political earthquake if he came back to temporarily lead a breakaway party consisting of the majority of the plp! If it was pulled off it could become the de facto opposition and if no GE until 2020, would have enough time to consolidate and build party infrastructure. Wow
Lucy Fisher, for The Times, reports suggestions that Woolfe could be suspended from the party for his role in the altercation, scuppering his chances of replacing Diane James who quit as leader after just 18 days. Woolfe missed out in the last contest because his paperwork was late.
You can bet Hamilton is on the phone to his cronies suggesting just that right now, of course they will probably lose Arron Bank's money if they do.
It would be bonkers to elect a leader who openly talked of joining a rival party.
Farage would start a new party funded by Banks and led by Woolfe. There could even be two UKIP's, a populist one from the Farage wing and a libertarian one from the Hamilton and Carswell wing
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Assuming Heathrow is given the green light, it looks like we've sensibly decided that the future infrastructure of our country is more important than one seat. Good.
Build runways. Stop breaking down to Nimbyism. Planes will be silent soon anyway.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Surely the local party would just let him run unopposed if he went as an independent. That way there's nothing to lose and on everything else he'll vote with the government.
Why? The Tories are very tribal and are not fond of traitorous pig dogs defectors...and electorates sometimes take offence at being asked the same question too often....
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
"It should be a matter of national shame that such representations are thought to be necessary but they have passed almost unnoticed."
I thought the Polish representations were covered in the news at the time?
Did you feel the shame?
Not on a personal level, no. I had no part to play in it. That doesn't mean I condone such behaviour... it's abhorrent.
I just read that sentence by Mr Meeks. "National shame"????
And he boasts about his second home in Orban's Hungary, which just voted by 98% to exclude all immigrants.
Clearly Mr Meeks has eerie personal issues with Brexit. I'm not sure why we have to see these distressing menstruations splattered across a thread header.
It is only fair to point out that over 50% of Hungarians did not take part in the vote. Still very nasty, though.
39% of Hungarians voted for Border Control, 37% of Britons for Leave
Given control of freedom of movement is non negotiable from the point of view of UK voters then WTO rules will have to be used if the EU refuses to budge at all and that means some tariffs on EU goods and services coming to the UK as well as UK goods and services going to the EU. In the meantime while EU leaders continue to have their head in the sand over migration and border controls, the far right will continue to grow
Can't we unilaterally decide not to impose tariffs in imports?
F1: not checked to see how practice went yet, but I'll likely put up the pre-qualifying piece today. Still need ti discover whether it's live on Channel 4 this weekend.
Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.
There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.
It's not just the cost of the trading rules, it's also the lost benefit of all the productive people who would otherwise have moved to Britain to work, and all the talented British people who will leave to work or start businesses in other parts of the world because if they stay in Britain they can't work with the best people from other countries.
A 1/4 difference in economic output doesn't sound far off (although I don't think that's exactly what the exchange rate measures.)
So you're arguing controlled immigration will collapse the economy, and hundreds of thousands of Brits will desert the country in digust?
Palpable nonsense. Very few people think like you do.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
I don't think that will deter May.
Well. With a majority of 12 and a growing tribe of malcontents she needs to be careful.
Florida registration closes in 5 days, Governor is refusing to extend it in light of the hurricane.
In 2012 50,000 registered in the last week. Obama won by 74,000 votes so that is a number high enough to matter.
Rafael Bernal of "The Hill" reports on the spike in latino registration in North Carolina this cycle and since 2000 that in a tight race may make the difference :
One factor that seems to me is being underplayed is that it is almost certain that in the negotiating period the EU will have another existential crisis, possibly more than one.
The range of risks facing the EU at the moment is almost unending whether it is the continuing refugee/immigrant crisis, the increasing pressure to exclude Hungary from the EU altogether, the problems with German and Italian banks, the frustration over much of the continent generated by mass unemployment (aggravated by the threat that the UK job market might no longer be available as an escape valve), the inevitable period of uncertainty as Merkel goes, the rise of the hard right in many places, the fact that Greece is still bankrupt, the appalling economy of Italy... It really goes on almost for ever.
Such crises will not necessarily work to the UK's advantage but one point that does come out of Alastair's piece is that Brexit will be a much bigger deal for us than anyone else and their focus on this will not be consistent or necessarily coherent. My suspicion is that this will give the EU Institutions more say than we might think which might well make the negotiations more difficult.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.
We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules: So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms). http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e
I'm amazed that this has become the election where 4chan has actually been taken seriously.
It's so bizarre - because the media is giving these pranksters just the absurd publicity they're after.
It's like taking Candid Camera seriously.
Then need to try something, they are about to go bust
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Assuming Heathrow is given the green light, it looks like we've sensibly decided that the future infrastructure of our country is more important than one seat. Good.
Build runways. Stop breaking down to Nimbyism. Planes will be silent soon anyway.
That last line is one of the most baffling that I've ever seen on here.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Assuming Heathrow is given the green light, it looks like we've sensibly decided that the future infrastructure of our country is more important than one seat. Good.
Build runways. Stop breaking down to Nimbyism. Planes will be silent soon anyway.
That last line is one of the most baffling that I've ever seen on here.
A little hyperbole, of course - this is pb afterall.
But seriously, we can't make long overdue infrastructure decisions on the basis of NIMBYism - especially as it is largely MC and almost entirely metropolitan Nimbyism.
And yes, technology will advance so that noise is little problem.
One factor that seems to me is being underplayed is that it is almost certain that in the negotiating period the EU will have another existential crisis, possibly more than one.
The range of risks facing the EU at the moment is almost unending whether it is the continuing refugee/immigrant crisis, the increasing pressure to exclude Hungary from the EU altogether, the problems with German and Italian banks, the frustration over much of the continent generated by mass unemployment (aggravated by the threat that the UK job market might no longer be available as an escape valve), the inevitable period of uncertainty as Merkel goes, the rise of the hard right in many places, the fact that Greece is still bankrupt, the appalling economy of Italy... It really goes on almost for ever.
Such crises will not necessarily work to the UK's advantage but one point that does come out of Alastair's piece is that Brexit will be a much bigger deal for us than anyone else and their focus on this will not be consistent or necessarily coherent. My suspicion is that this will give the EU Institutions more say than we might think which might well make the negotiations more difficult.
I wouldn't be so sure that Merkel is going anywhere. She seems to be enjoying a bit of a resurgence in popularity at the moment.
Florida registration closes in 5 days, Governor is refusing to extend it in light of the hurricane.
In 2012 50,000 registered in the last week. Obama won by 74,000 votes so that is a number high enough to matter.
Rafael Bernal of "The Hill" reports on the spike in latino registration in North Carolina this cycle and since 2000 that in a tight race may make the difference :
William Tench Constituencies of Leader of the Opposition, Shadow Foreign Secretary, Shadow Home Secretary and Shadow Brexit Secretary. North London Clique https://t.co/LtCbb5uC4H
@plinstable No - but May is in Berkshire, Davis in Yorkshire, Boris in London and Rudd is Sussex. Four different regions.
. My suspicion is that this will give the EU Institutions more say than we might think which might well make the negotiations more difficult.
I suspect the multiple crises will reinforce the view that we were right to Leave and reduce the persuasiveness of those arguing for semi Soft Brexit.
If we do get a poor "cutting off their nose to spite their face" deal then that will not only hurt us but also the EU.
For example, the WTO tariff on wine is 32%. But of course we could do deals with Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile....for lower or zero tariffs....
We have an interesting story today about how far right groups in the US are co-opting well-known brand names to use as substitutes for racial slurs on social media platforms. That way they can get round takedown rules: So-called ‘Operation Google’ soon expanded and led to the creation of a full set of code words as a substitute for various offensive terms. This includes the aforementioned ‘Googles’ as a derogatory word for African Americans, ‘Skypes’ as a derogatory word for Jewish people, ‘Bings’ as a derogatory word for Asian Americans, ‘Yahoos’ as a derogatory word for Mexicans and ‘Skittles’ as a derogatory word for Muslims (the latter apparently originating from a Donald Trump Jr tweet comparing a bowl of Skittles to Syrian refugees). The full list can be viewed here (warning: contains offensive terms). http://www.worldtrademarkreview.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=601cb3fe-54cd-4770-8887-1c341e05273e
There's nothing that can be done about this because if you try to stop these words being used in this way, the people concerned can simply use other ones instead, and they can keep changing them on a regular basis. Best to ignore them instead.
Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.
There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.
It's not just the cost of the trading rules, it's also the lost benefit of all the productive people who would otherwise have moved to Britain to work, and all the talented British people who will leave to work or start businesses in other parts of the world because if they stay in Britain they can't work with the best people from other countries.
A 1/4 difference in economic output doesn't sound far off (although I don't think that's exactly what the exchange rate measures.)
So you're arguing controlled immigration will collapse the economy, and hundreds of thousands of Brits will desert the country in digust?
Palpable nonsense. Very few people think like you do.
The lower the pound falls, the less incentive there is for migrants to come here, and the more incentive there is for smart Brits to seek their fortunes elsewhere. In a few years time we may be worrying more about emigration than immigration. Remember the 1970s brain drain angst?
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
I don't think that will deter May.
Well. With a majority of 12 and a growing tribe of malcontents she needs to be careful.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Surely the local party would just let him run unopposed if he went as an independent. That way there's nothing to lose and on everything else he'll vote with the government.
No chance. The Tories would run a candidate which would let the LDs through the middle
Given control of freedom of movement is non negotiable from the point of view of UK voters then WTO rules will have to be used if the EU refuses to budge at all and that means some tariffs on EU goods and services coming to the UK as well as UK goods and services going to the EU. In the meantime while EU leaders continue to have their head in the sand over migration and border controls, the far right will continue to grow
Can't we unilaterally decide not to impose tariffs in imports?
Nope, May will certainly impose tariffs on EU goods coming to the UK if they impose tariffs on UK goods and services to protect UK manufacturing and agriculture
Carl Dinnen I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
Surely the local party would just let him run unopposed if he went as an independent. That way there's nothing to lose and on everything else he'll vote with the government.
No chance. The Tories would run a candidate which would let the LDs through the middle
It would be close IMO, and the Tories would still have a good chance at winning the seat. They were on 58% last time so could drop by 20 points and still win in a 3-way battle.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.
The reports are hilarious. Some of the Trump quotes are laugh out loud funny.
I fancy on Sunday there will be plenty of GOP supporters squirming behind their sofas hoping Trump can avoid a meltdown. He may surprise us all .... but it so many different ways !! ..
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
I don't think that will deter May.
Well. With a majority of 12 and a growing tribe of malcontents she needs to be careful.
Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.
There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.
It's not just the cost of the trading rules, it's also the lost benefit of all the productive people who would otherwise have moved to Britain to work, and all the talented British people who will leave to work or start businesses in other parts of the world because if they stay in Britain they can't work with the best people from other countries.
A 1/4 difference in economic output doesn't sound far off (although I don't think that's exactly what the exchange rate measures.)
So you're arguing controlled immigration will collapse the economy, and hundreds of thousands of Brits will desert the country in digust?
Palpable nonsense. Very few people think like you do.
The lower the pound falls, the less incentive there is for migrants to come here, and the more incentive there is for smart Brits to seek their fortunes elsewhere. In a few years time we may be worrying more about emigration than immigration. Remember the 1970s brain drain angst?
Unlikely, most people aren't able to just leave the country. Losing overseas talent is the biggest worry. Then again, a lot of companies pay in USD anyway.
Carl Dinnen I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of course
Further, Sterling has a natural floor: that is the economic cost to the UK economy of trading with the EU on WTO rules.
There is no evidence to suggest the UK economy has collapsed or shrunk by 1/4 of its previous size.
It's not just the cost of the trading rules, it's also the lost benefit of all the productive people who would otherwise have moved to Britain to work, and all the talented British people who will leave to work or start businesses in other parts of the world because if they stay in Britain they can't work with the best people from other countries.
A 1/4 difference in economic output doesn't sound far off (although I don't think that's exactly what the exchange rate measures.)
So you're arguing controlled immigration will collapse the economy, and hundreds of thousands of Brits will desert the country in digust?
Palpable nonsense. Very few people think like you do.
Not desert the country in disgust, desert the country to work somewhere where other good people are working, or where you can get them to come. Or in the case of people who aren't originally from Britain, people who would currently move to Britain don't move to Britain.
It's true that most people don't think like this; Most people don't move from country to country, even when there's quite a lot of economic benefit to doing it. But the people who *do* think like this are disproportionately the kinds of people who start new businesses or create a lot of economic output.
Carl Dinnen I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
Surely his chances are now much reduced, if not gone? Aside from the health issue, there are strong suggestions he may be the one who started the fight.
He is popular with UKIP members and UKIP could split of course
I believe their net worth is a debt of over £1m, most of their funding comes from Banks who is threatening to walk away unless Carswell and Hamilton are expelled. Hamilton is expendable but they will look idiots if they expel the only person ever to win as an MP in a GE. And if Banks walks away to found a new plaything they are finished financially. Especially when the MEP funding dries up in 2019.
If the EU is being super aggressive "pour encourager les autres" - well who are these "autres" and why would they support punitive actions against the Uk if they may well be next ?
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.
Two LD gains this autumn would spook the Tories.
The first being in Neverland, presumably?
This Witney is a goer for the LDs theme is bizarre. It is rock solid blue.
Sterling will continue to fall to 1:15 to the dollar.and parity against the Euro. The Brexit negotiations will take 5 minutes and basically consist of piss off Britain.
That's not how the EU works. Even if the upshot was "piss of Britain", it would take 2 years to say it.
But in any case, they'll fudge something together. Even if there's not much to talk about on the big issues, there will be a lot to work together on over the small ones.
@DMcCaffreySKY: Zac Goldsmith, he'll spark by-election if Government give green light to Heathrow, so as early as next week, possibly run as independent.
LD Gain
That's what I was thinking. Now he's said it he'll have to do it, but it's baffling if he really cares this much.
Two LD gains this autumn would spook the Tories.
The first being in Neverland, presumably?
This Witney is a goer for the LDs theme is bizarre. It is rock solid blue.
I agree, and the risk is that a decent result for the LDs becomes painted as a disappointment. It is the second safest Tory seat in the country, and the new PM is in her honeymoon. Objectively they cannot lose. The LibDems need a hopeful by-election to come along once May has actually done a few things that people don't like, which is only a matter of time, as with any government.
Middling figures just now. Manufacturing back to growth, but maybe not as good as we need. Trade figures not brilliant but upwards revisions for July are telling for August IMO.
At what point will people stop wittering on about Project Fear and admit they are scared. Pound continuing to drop....
It suggests that markets are not taking May's comments about ending QE and ZIRP (notwithstanding that this isn't, directly, her decision) very seriously at this stage.
Sterling will continue to fall to 1:15 to the dollar.and parity against the Euro. The Brexit negotiations will take 5 minutes and basically consist of piss off Britain.
That's not how the EU works. Even if the upshot was "piss of Britain", it would take 2 years to say it.
But in any case, they'll fudge something together. Even if there's not much to talk about on the big issues, there will be a lot to work together on over the small ones.
If that was their mindset - and politics will always trump economics, as with our own vote - then they simply need to hang us out to dry, and wait for the A50 period to expire. There is no need for them to say or do anything.
Comments
We have financed our current account deficit by importing capital, but that is rather dependent on foreign capitalists wanting to continue to do so.
http://mashable.com/2016/10/06/4chan-advertiser-struggle-nearly-broke/
Annoying but the pound goes up, the pound goes down, and we avoided the very painful recessions and large spikes in unemployment that other eurozone countries faced.
Lucy Fisher, for The Times, reports suggestions that Woolfe could be suspended from the party for his role in the altercation, scuppering his chances of replacing Diane James who quit as leader after just 18 days. Woolfe missed out in the last contest because his paperwork was late.
Cumulatively, it can become a self fulfilling prophecy and sterling does fall but it is not because there has been a loss of confidence, it is simply an opportunity for short term profits.
Normally our concern about a fall in sterling would be that we would be importing inflation. Right now we desperately need inflation and we also need to close our appalling trade deficit. The latter is a long term proposition at best and it is all too likely that we will see a J shaped increase in the deficit in the very short term but the fact is that the fall in sterling has already boosted the competitiveness of UK exports to the EU by more than the tariffs that would apply in a WTO Brexit.
Falling sterling has been very closely linked in the public mind to a weak economy since at least the 60s and that perception is not completely wrong but the fact is in or out of the EU we simply cannot continue to buy far more goods and services to consume than we make forever. These adjustments need to be made whatever happens with Brexit.
I hope the FBI has secured a double-digit budget uplift from Hillary in return...
It's not a crisis; it's an opportunity to sell stuff.
Intriguing hint by Blair about a return to UK politics. Can't see how the modern Labour party would even give him a fringe slot never mind a seat or HoL place.
A new party initially led by Blair, money from Sainsbury and co? Could completely upset the political apple cart.
F1: not checked to see how practice went yet, but I'll likely put up the pre-qualifying piece today. Still need ti discover whether it's live on Channel 4 this weekend.
A 1/4 difference in economic output doesn't sound far off (although I don't think that's exactly what the exchange rate measures.)
Build runways. Stop breaking down to Nimbyism. Planes will be silent soon anyway.
Palpable nonsense. Very few people think like you do.
http://thehill.com/latino/299742-latino-voter-registrations-spike-in-north-carolina
The range of risks facing the EU at the moment is almost unending whether it is the continuing refugee/immigrant crisis, the increasing pressure to exclude Hungary from the EU altogether, the problems with German and Italian banks, the frustration over much of the continent generated by mass unemployment (aggravated by the threat that the UK job market might no longer be available as an escape valve), the inevitable period of uncertainty as Merkel goes, the rise of the hard right in many places, the fact that Greece is still bankrupt, the appalling economy of Italy... It really goes on almost for ever.
Such crises will not necessarily work to the UK's advantage but one point that does come out of Alastair's piece is that Brexit will be a much bigger deal for us than anyone else and their focus on this will not be consistent or necessarily coherent. My suspicion is that this will give the EU Institutions more say than we might think which might well make the negotiations more difficult.
*sighs*
In a few years, free-to-air TV will only have highlights, thanks to the BBC appointed Judas Iscariot as head of F1 policy.
The Scots are finally seeing through the Nats' narrow, divisive nationalism (©Tessy of the Britons).
Tories hiring new campaign manager for Labour cities: https://t.co/i9z6y106XT
But seriously, we can't make long overdue infrastructure decisions on the basis of NIMBYism - especially as it is largely MC and almost entirely metropolitan Nimbyism.
And yes, technology will advance so that noise is little problem.
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-651.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-town-hall-debate-prep-229267
Belfast Telegraph
Don't call me a terrorist, says Brighton bomber Patrick Magee
https://t.co/D6QQ6uHRfI https://t.co/pf2TiOTJt3
William Tench
Constituencies of Leader of the Opposition, Shadow Foreign Secretary, Shadow Home Secretary and Shadow Brexit Secretary. North London Clique https://t.co/LtCbb5uC4H
@plinstable No - but May is in Berkshire, Davis in Yorkshire, Boris in London and Rudd is Sussex. Four different regions.
If we do get a poor "cutting off their nose to spite their face" deal then that will not only hurt us but also the EU.
For example, the WTO tariff on wine is 32%. But of course we could do deals with Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile....for lower or zero tariffs....
I understand Steven Woolfe is not now being released from hospital but moved to the neurological department.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/10755313/How-MI5-combated-Communist-attempts-to-take-over-the-scouts.html
https://youtu.be/438UKM1Av1g
It's true that most people don't think like this; Most people don't move from country to country, even when there's quite a lot of economic benefit to doing it. But the people who *do* think like this are disproportionately the kinds of people who start new businesses or create a lot of economic output.
The fact that the EU could only threaten us shows they have the weaker bargaining position.
If they were in a strong position then would have been enable to entice us during the referendum, and not just make menacing arguments.
This article is just part of Project Fear II. And will be just as effective in the end.
NL, IRE etc etc..
This Witney is a goer for the LDs theme is bizarre. It is rock solid blue.
Not quite sure you understand how bullys work
To what end? We have told them to fuck off. Why would they want to "entice us"?
I was talking about during the referendum, when they (allegedly) wanted us to stay.
But in any case, they'll fudge something together. Even if there's not much to talk about on the big issues, there will be a lot to work together on over the small ones.
Rob Ford
Whole host of new results from the @BESResearch team for #poli30241 students to comb through here https://t.co/TUOBgAMAiY