politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election

System · October 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election and the Clinton ’surge’ – this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast

This week Kieran Pedley and his guests, Rob Vance and Matt Singh, on the PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast focus mostly on the Tories and the big issue that looks set to determine whether TMay is successful – the BREXIT negotiations. The polling suggests that people are expecting a lot and is the new PM going to have to disappoint?

Read the full story here

Ishmael_X · October 2016

1

eek · October 2016

Trumped...

JosiasJessop · October 2016

3rd.

williamglenn · October 2016

Is this an Amber Rudd list?

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

williamglenn said:
Is this an Amber Rudd list?

She has a little list,

No-one will be missed...

FrancisUrquhart · October 2016

Not at the races...like the Lib Lib Lib...thingys.

brokenwheel · October 2016

She's making a list,
She's checking it twice,
She's gonna find out who's naughty or nice
Amber Rudd is coming to town

Speedy · October 2016

If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ

TOPPING · October 2016

Fpt

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This site seems to permanently be stuck at 24th June at the moment.

It happened. Brexit won. We're leaving. The non lib wing of the tories are in power until most of us retire. There is nothing any of us can do about it. Please move on.

I dread to think what will happen here if Trump wins (although that is not something I would put a great deal of money on unless he gets his act together fast).

Agree. It's May 2nd 1997. Why on earth shouldn't the Tories give up and accept they will be out of power for 13 years, perhaps for ever?

Now, I am not arguing with the Brexit results but why do you want to deny an opposing view it's voice?

Moses_ · October 2016

Guido...

Nigel Farage’s former top aide Raheem Kassam has entered the race for UKIP leader, Guido can reveal. A website called MakeUKIPGreatAgain.com has been set up by Kassam’s campaign team.

"UKIP has a positive future in a sovereign Britain, but it won’t happen unless someone with some courage and willpower does something about the internal fractures. I want to Make UKIP Great Again."

http://order-order.com/2016/10/05/kassam-running-ukip-leader/

M'kay

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

Perhaps Eric Idle did it best:

https://youtu.be/A-_m6EZ1SUk

ThreeQuidder · October 2016

Moses_ said:
Guido...

Nigel Farage’s former top aide Raheem Kassam has entered the race for UKIP leader, Guido can reveal. A website called MakeUKIPGreatAgain.com has been set up by Kassam’s campaign team.

"UKIP has a positive future in a sovereign Britain, but it won’t happen unless someone with some courage and willpower does something about the internal fractures. I want to Make UKIP Great Again."

http://order-order.com/2016/10/05/kassam-running-ukip-leader/

M'kay

Again?

Luckyguy1983 · October 2016

Moses_ said:
Guido...

Nigel Farage’s former top aide Raheem Kassam has entered the race for UKIP leader, Guido can reveal. A website called MakeUKIPGreatAgain.com has been set up by Kassam’s campaign team.

"UKIP has a positive future in a sovereign Britain, but it won’t happen unless someone with some courage and willpower does something about the internal fractures. I want to Make UKIP Great Again."

http://order-order.com/2016/10/05/kassam-running-ukip-leader/

M'kay

Good. Hopefully when he loses he'll get the message - I can't see that he's been anything other than a disaster for the party.

williamglenn · October 2016

Moses_ said:
Guido...

Nigel Farage’s former top aide Raheem Kassam has entered the race for UKIP leader, Guido can reveal. A website called MakeUKIPGreatAgain.com has been set up by Kassam’s campaign team.

"UKIP has a positive future in a sovereign Britain, but it won’t happen unless someone with some courage and willpower does something about the internal fractures. I want to Make UKIP Great Again."

http://order-order.com/2016/10/05/kassam-running-ukip-leader/

M'kay

"We're going to build a paywall, and the Guardian is going to pay for that wall. 100% believe me!"

ThreeQuidder · October 2016

Heh.

http://order-order.com/2016/10/05/campaign-to-buy-countdown-clock-for-woolfe/

Pong · October 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/upshot/when-you-hear-the-margin-of-error-is-plus-or-minus-3-percent-think-7-instead.html

And for true PB geeks;

http://researchdmr.com/ProbabilityTotalError.pdf

nunu · October 2016

brokenwheel said:
She's making a list,
She's checking it twice,
She's gonna find out who's naughty or nice
Amber Rudd is coming to town

is Boris giving her a ride?

Luckyguy1983 · October 2016

nunu said:

brokenwheel said:
She's making a list,
She's checking it twice,
She's gonna find out who's naughty or nice
Amber Rudd is coming to town
is Boris giving her a ride?

Thanks, that's tonight's sleep gone.

HYUFD · October 2016

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ

Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/

chestnut · October 2016

“There is a ‘la la la la la la’ moment going on. Financial services companies are not the top priority at the moment,” he said.

Aw, diddums.

Moses_ · October 2016

Daily mash take....

WHO or what will be the next leader of UKIP?

A Red Squirrel 5/1

Mike Ashley 7/1

Alan Bennett 500,000,000/1

Arsene Wenger 600/1

Prince George 7/2

Holly Willoughby 8/3

George Monbiot 80/1

Sarah Beeney 25/1.

Nigella Farage 2/1

Information about each of the candidates here
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/whos-next-in-line-for-ukip-20161005114810

chestnut · October 2016

Fabulous excerpts for Theresa on BBC News.

HYUFD · October 2016

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.

She is PM until at least 2025 for me

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

#aworldwithoutdowns

I cannot recommend this documentary too highly.

MaxPB · October 2016

SeanT said:
The BBC is just buying the entire Theresa May narrative.

Yes, they do seem to be. But big government is what they desire. Conservative members that I have been speaking to today seem less convinced.

philiph · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.

Fascinating how hard it is for reporters and journalists in several outlets (visual, audio and written) to give a commentary that passes on what she said without sounding like the critical metropolitan elite who are so superior.

This could result in the end of several illustrious (depending on your viewpoint) media careers, when the facts and the commentary are irreconcilable.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2016

SeanT said:
The BBC is just buying the entire Theresa May narrative.

The BBC like the sound of bigger government, surely not.

Speedy · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/

Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.

Scrapheap_as_was · October 2016

What is it with OGH seeming to use TMay all the time?

What's that all about - I've missed the point of it

TMA would seem as good

williamglenn · October 2016

Clearly the natural socialistic leanings of the British people are being unleashed by freedom from the liberal yoke of the EU.

Moses_ · October 2016

Spain has invited Britain to share sovereignty of Gibraltar, in a move which would allow the territory to remain in the European Union.

But Gibraltar's chief minister has rejected the proposal, saying the answer is "no way, Jose."

http://news.sky.com/story/gibraltar-should-be-shared-spain-tells-britain-10606648

Scott_P · October 2016

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union - 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'
thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/b…

I am on Fox at 10/1...

TCPoliticalBetting · October 2016

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me

Being PM is a punishing job. With her age and diabetes I would put her time as one GE plus a couple of years at most and then retirement. 2022.

williamglenn · October 2016

SeanT said:

Either way, this is an incredibly positive BBC reaction. She couldn't have asked for better. Did she pay them?!

Theresa May bought the BBC narrative rather than vice versa?

SandyRentool · October 2016

Moses_ said:

Spain has invited Britain to share sovereignty of Gibraltar, in a move which would allow the territory to remain in the European Union.

But Gibraltar's chief minister has rejected the proposal, saying the answer is "no way, Jose."

http://news.sky.com/story/gibraltar-should-be-shared-spain-tells-britain-10606648

Maybe they could share sovereignty of Scotland too so they can Remain?

HYUFD · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.

Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher

frpenkridge · October 2016

SeanT said:
The BBC is just buying the entire Theresa May narrative.

After all these years. Bread, side and butter come to mind.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Scrapheap_as_was said:
What is it with OGH seeming to use TMay all the time?

What's that all about - I've missed the point of it

TMA would seem as good

To avoid confusion, because May is

i) The surname of our (unelected) Prime Minister

ii) A modal verb

iii) A month

So you can imagine the confusion of the headline 'Theresa May may call a May election'

HYUFD · October 2016

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.

This is on polling and Trump will get out the white working class in a way Romney did not. Trump did beat Jeb Bush, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz in the primaries for a reason. By this time next week post Wikileaks and the VP debate and the second Trump-Clinton debate we could well be back to nearly neck and neck

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
What is it with OGH seeming to use TMay all the time?

What's that all about - I've missed the point of it

TMA would seem as good
To avoid confusion, because May is

i) The surname of our (unelected) Prime Minister

ii) A modal verb

iii) A month

So you can imagine the confusion of the headline 'Theresa May may call a May election'

Why not Theresa May, or Mrs May?

Jobabob · October 2016

So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.

rpjs · October 2016

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.

How does that help the Republicans? There is no precedent for a presidential candidate to pull out after receiving a major party nomination, let alone just over a month from the election. The damage to the party of their candidate quitting like that would be, to coin a phrase, YUGE. (And that's assuming enough states would allow any replacement nominated by the RNC onto the ballot at this late stage - and what about early ballots already cast?)

All the Democrats Christmases would have come at once - they could paint the GOP as a party of farcical incompetents, and the judgement of every GOP candidate who supported Trump from Pence down to whoever's running for county dogcatcher as irredeemably flawed. In such a scenario Clinton doesn't just win the Presidency, the Dems get the Senate, House and a bunch of state legislatures and governorships too.

HYUFD · October 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Being PM is a punishing job. With her age and diabetes I would put her time as one GE plus a couple of years at most and then retirement. 2022.

In 2025 she would be the same age as Hillary Clinton is now, she of course has her own health problems, no reason May cannot last until then if she wants to

Scrapheap_as_was · October 2016

Thank you.

Jobabob · October 2016

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me

And for everyone else?

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.
This is on polling and Trump will get out the white working class in a way Romney did not. Trump did beat Jeb Bush, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz in the primaries for a reason. By this time next week post Wikileaks and the VP debate and the second Trump-Clinton debate we could well be back to nearly neck and neck

Don't the voting registration and early voting figures point to the opposite? Democrats being more likely to vote than Trumpeteers?

Alistair · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/

I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.

Pulpstar · October 2016

Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union - 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'
thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/b…

I am on Fox at 10/1...

So am I !

Sunbets ?

Ishmael_X · October 2016

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.

Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union - 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'
thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/b…

I am on Fox at 10/1...

Hammond on 25/1 may well be value.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union - 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'
thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/b…

I am on Fox at 10/1...
So am I !

Sunbets ?

Ladbrokes for me. I tipped it here.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/14/the-tories-set-to-re-introduce-fox-hunting-with-hounds-if-the-international-trade-secretary-doesnt-wind-his-neck-in/

IanB2 · October 2016

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-conference-speech-what-she-said-what-she-meant-john-rentoul-a7346456.html

HYUFD · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.

Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too

HYUFD · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
And for everyone else?

Well take your pick but there is nobody around on either the Labour or Tory side I can see as a credible alternative until then, especially with Labour still in the grip of the hard left

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too

Blair = LINO

glw · October 2016

Jobabob said:
If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.

It will, but it might also mean that 2020 makes 2016 look like a fuss about nothing. If Clinton wins but takes no lesson from Trump's campaign she is a fool.

Jobabob · October 2016

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.

Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Being PM is a punishing job. With her age and diabetes I would put her time as one GE plus a couple of years at most and then retirement. 2022.

Sounds about right to me. 6 years is very stressing and ageing for a PM.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
And for everyone else?

JICIPM

HYUFD · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.
This is on polling and Trump will get out the white working class in a way Romney did not. Trump did beat Jeb Bush, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz in the primaries for a reason. By this time next week post Wikileaks and the VP debate and the second Trump-Clinton debate we could well be back to nearly neck and neck
Don't the voting registration and early voting figures point to the opposite? Democrats being more likely to vote than Trumpeteers?

The polls show Trumpeteers are more enthusiastic for their man than Democrats are for Hillary, voter registration means little if you cannot really be bothered to get off the sofa on a cold November evening to vote for Hillary Clinton who you were never really enthused about anyway other than as the lesser of two evils.

Jobabob · October 2016

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.

If the GOP switched their candidate now they would get routed, and rightly so. It would be an act of sheer desperation.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

OK, fess up - who invented "Trumpeteer"?

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.
This is on polling and Trump will get out the white working class in a way Romney did not. Trump did beat Jeb Bush, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz in the primaries for a reason. By this time next week post Wikileaks and the VP debate and the second Trump-Clinton debate we could well be back to nearly neck and neck
Don't the voting registration and early voting figures point to the opposite? Democrats being more likely to vote than Trumpeteers?
The polls show Trumpeteers are more enthusiastic for their man than Democrats are for Hillary, voter registration means little if you cannot really be bothered to get off the sofa on a cold November day to vote for Hillary Clinton who you were never really enthused about anyway other than the lesser of two evils.

Early voting and registration take some effort.

glw · October 2016

Ishmael_X said:
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.

Exactly. If America had a healthy political system Trump wouldn't even be in the running. If he loses it doesn't mean America has a clean bill of health, far from it. Trump is a symptom, people should be asking how the bloody hell someone with hair like that is even close to attaining power.

Jobabob · October 2016

Moses_ said:

Spain has invited Britain to share sovereignty of Gibraltar, in a move which would allow the territory to remain in the European Union.

But Gibraltar's chief minister has rejected the proposal, saying the answer is "no way, Jose."

http://news.sky.com/story/gibraltar-should-be-shared-spain-tells-britain-10606648

Will they extend the offer to London?

"Tell me more, señor."

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.

Few people are more identity obsessed than Brexiteers.

HYUFD · October 2016

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.

Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after

HYUFD · October 2016

Jobabob said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.
Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).

If Hillary does win she will face a GOP congress and I remain of the view if she does win it will be by literally scraping home

glw · October 2016

SeanT said:
Ooh, I dunno. Scot Nats. Feminazis. Europhile diehards.

Don't forget the Northern Irish.

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.
Few people are more identity obsessed than Brexiteers.
Ooh, I dunno. Scot Nats. Feminazis. Europhile diehards.

There is a lot of it about. May seems obsessed with the Working Class.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.
Few people are more identity obsessed than Brexiteers.

LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%

HYUFD · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Blair = LINO

Cameron = CINO?

RobD · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after

It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.

ThreeQuidder · October 2016

https://twitter.com/SamJ_Bax/status/783782724779859973

Ouch.

Jobabob · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
What is it with OGH seeming to use TMay all the time?

What's that all about - I've missed the point of it

TMA would seem as good
To avoid confusion, because May is

i) The surname of our (unelected) Prime Minister

ii) A modal verb

iii) A month

So you can imagine the confusion of the headline 'Theresa May may call a May election'

Ed Miliband was always EdM for short on here, rather than simply EM, for reasons I could never fathom.

Does OGH have a sister call Em and wanted to avoid confusing Ed with her?

RobD · October 2016

ThreeQuidder said:
https://twitter.com/SamJ_Bax/status/783782724779859973

Ouch.

Yes, the thousand year PB Tory reich is looking in pretty good shape today...

HYUFD · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.

At the moment it is largely internationalist, free market liberals, versus nationalist, anti immigration populists yes

RobD · October 2016

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
What is it with OGH seeming to use TMay all the time?

What's that all about - I've missed the point of it

TMA would seem as good
To avoid confusion, because May is

i) The surname of our (unelected) Prime Minister

ii) A modal verb

iii) A month

So you can imagine the confusion of the headline 'Theresa May may call a May election'
Ed Miliband was always EdM for short on here, rather than simply EM, for reasons I could never fathom.

Does OGH have a sister call Em and wanted to avoid confusing Ed with her?

Ed who? EdM? Don't you mean EICIPM??

williamglenn · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.

Or as Julie Burchill put it, ponces versus non-ponces. Incidentally, your writing styles (and views) can be quite similar.

HYUFD · October 2016

BBC focus group on May's speech in Birmingham, Tories and Labour voters alike generally liked the speech though want to see her deliver. The only one a little less enthused is a LD

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

RobD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
What is it with OGH seeming to use TMay all the time?

What's that all about - I've missed the point of it

TMA would seem as good
To avoid confusion, because May is

i) The surname of our (unelected) Prime Minister

ii) A modal verb

iii) A month

So you can imagine the confusion of the headline 'Theresa May may call a May election'
Ed Miliband was always EdM for short on here, rather than simply EM, for reasons I could never fathom.

Does OGH have a sister call Em and wanted to avoid confusing Ed with her?
Ed who? EdM? Don't you mean EICIPM??

TICIPM?

Mortimer · October 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.
Few people are more identity obsessed than Brexiteers.

And those few people are remainers, and largely on here...

Mortimer · October 2016

Absolutely tremendous focus group for May on Newsnight.

She is going to walk 2020. Labour will be sub 20% in a poll before then, surely?

foxinsoxuk · October 2016

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.
Few people are more identity obsessed than Brexiteers.
Ooh, I dunno. Scot Nats. Feminazis. Europhile diehards.
There is a lot of it about. May seems obsessed with the Working Class.
There I stand with her. She's absolutely right to do that.

Who is most likely to fail, educationally, right now?

White working class boys.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2016/09/lost-boys-how-white-working-class-got-left-behind

Fuck this. These are our kids. Labour despises them, and prefers migrants. I don't. They're my kith and kin. Save them. Help them.

She will look after them as well as my cat looks after a mouse.

Jobabob · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.
Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).
If Hillary does win she will face a GOP congress and I remain of the view if she does win it will be by literally scraping home

A win's a win. A liberal New York internationalist as leader of the free world.

619 · October 2016

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.

i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!

HYUFD · October 2016

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.

We will see but it could be a gift to the Trump campaign

Pulpstar · October 2016

Jobabob said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
Forget it, if Trump is doing as bad as Romney 30 days out then he is still a guaranteed Loser with a capital L on election day.

The only reason Hillary is winning is because her opponent is Trump, if Trump where to go out of the picture Hillary would automatically lose.

People are voting against Trump, remember ?

The only winning move for Trump is not to play, and resign.
If the GOP switched their candidate now they would get routed, and rightly so. It would be an act of sheer desperation.

They can't. If they switched now then John Kasich, Ted Cruz or whoever would not be on any of the ballots (It is too late).

If Trump falls in front of a bus then I think Pence gets the gig.

Imo the only possible next presidents are Clinton, Trump, Pence, Kaine, Johnson - probably in that order.

619 · October 2016

619 said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!

also, trump ia doing a lot worse than romney, by around 5 points nationally

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Blair = LINO
Cameron = CINO?

No, no. TINO!

I trolled TSE about being a TINO on the previous thread

RobD · October 2016

619 said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!

I think you are confusing me with someone else!

Jobabob · October 2016

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Or this whole left right thing is now useless.

Its globalists versus nativists, statists versus individualists, and the idiot frenzied PC identity-obsessed transgender Corbynite left versus electoral reality.

On the first two dichotomies, where do you place yourself? (I'll hazard a guess on #3)

HYUFD · October 2016

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.
Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).
If Hillary does win she will face a GOP congress and I remain of the view if she does win it will be by literally scraping home
A win's a win. A liberal New York internationalist as leader of the free world.

Hillary is not that liberal, she is a hawk and has already rowed back from TPP to suit the climate while a GOP congress would limit her room for manoeuvre

weejonnie · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.
Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).
If Hillary does win she will face a GOP congress and I remain of the view if she does win it will be by literally scraping home

Early voting from Florida

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Repub Demo Othe None Total
3,568 2,275 249 1,296 7,388

HYUFD · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Blair = LINO
Cameron = CINO?
No, no. TINO!

I trolled TSE about being a TINO on the previous thread

I expect May's speech was rather more to your tastes than TSE's!

HYUFD · October 2016

619 said:

619 said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:
If Trump doesn't win the debate on Sunday he should call it quits and resign to let someone else have a try.

I always said that the White House is a Bridge Too Far for Trump :

(great overture, shame that Trump doesn't use it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gls47FozfQ
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate
http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!
also, trump ia doing a lot worse than romney, by around 5 points nationally

No he is not, RCP has Hillary leading Trump by 3.8% today, Romney lost by 3.9% to Obama

williamglenn · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.
Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).
If Hillary does win she will face a GOP congress and I remain of the view if she does win it will be by literally scraping home
A win's a win. A liberal New York internationalist as leader of the free world.
Hillary is not that liberal, she is a hawk and has already rowed back from TPP to suit the climate while a GOP congress would limit her room for manoeuvre

Excuse me, while I drone this guy...

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:
May's speech looking quite good on BBC Ten. Centrist, generous, covering a lot of bases. She will be popular. For now.
She is PM until at least 2025 for me
Incredibly good for her. TUC praise. The CBI skeptical.

But the CBI are never going to vote for Corbyn.

Theresa May is the best that Labour voters could hope for, given that their own leader is a crazy IRA-loving Marxist who will never win. The Left is fucked.
Yes, Theresa May is more economically leftwing than Blair and not that much more economically rightwing than Brown. Though on social issues she is the most rightwing since Thatcher
Yes, possibly to the left of Blair, on economics. Remarkable.
Mind you Blair was also arguably right of Macmillan, Heath and Major on economics too
Blair = LINO
Cameron = CINO?
No, no. TINO!

I trolled TSE about being a TINO on the previous thread
I expect May's speech was rather more to your tastes than TSE's!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/752644694140719104

glw · October 2016

HYUFD said:
Hillary is not that liberal, she is a hawk and has already rowed back from TPP to suit the climate while a GOP congress would limit her room for manoeuvre

Bernie Sanders is liberal, Hilary Clinton is more right wing than Theresa May.

HYUFD · October 2016

weejonnie said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jobabob said:
So I have been thinking about a possible (probable?) Hillary win, and its impacts.

We were assured that Brexit was the thin end of the wedge, that the liberal establishment was doomed, that the socially conservative anti-immigration white working class was in the ascendancy, that metropolitan attitudes were under siege.

And so too it seemed, what with May and Rudd and all.

The Trump rampers (Moniker Di Canio, RodCrosby, Plato etc etc etc) assured us a victory for the Donald was a natural progression, that it would follow Brexit as sure as night follows day.

If Hillary, liberal New Yorker globalist Hillary, pulls this off, it will upset the narrative just a little, I dare say.
Not really. The fact that Trump is even remotely in contention at this stage supports the argument set out in your 2nd paragraph almost as much as an actual win would.
Not really. History is written by the winners, even when its close (see Brexit).
If Hillary does win she will face a GOP congress and I remain of the view if she does win it will be by literally scraping home
Early voting from Florida

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Repub Demo Othe None Total
3,568 2,275 249 1,296 7,388

Trump leads on early voting there then

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election

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