Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks /blockquote>
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!
also, trump ia doing a lot worse than romney, by around 5 points nationally
No he is not, RCP has Hillary leading Trump by 3.8% today, Romney lost by 3.9% to Obama
im talking about in pre-election polls. romney was leading by 2 at this stage 4 years ago
Romney won the first debate (which is the point at which you are referring to in the polls) but lost the second and third. He also went into the debates further behind than Trump was
what do you think i mean by doing worse??? he lost the debate, thats his own damn fault. he is doing worse than romney at the moment.
Depends on what poll you look at, Trump is ahead with Rasmussen and the LA Times, Pence won the debate last night, the Wikileaks on Benghazi etc start in the next few days and the second debate is Sunday.
One hopes Trump is actually studying this time
Depending on what comes out of Wikileaks he may not need to, it will all be on a plate for him. Goodnight
wikileaks is wishful thinking isn't it? isn't your faith damaged by this week's fiasco?
The first batch will come out in the next few days as Assange's spokeswoman said today, it was never set for today. Goodnight
May is very WYSIWYG -listen to what she says - it's what she believes
Apart from during referendum campaigns, like
We'll have to wait for her memoirs, but I suspect she viewed it as Cameron's mess he and his inner circle of chums could sort out. After years of being left out, time for her to return the compliment.
that's a fair distance from the WYSIWYG you were promoting
The curious thing is that Labour didn't eat itself alive. Against all odds it had the best conference of the three.
But perhaps you're right. Maybe Labour should leave the Tories alone right now.
Both at the conference and afterwards, there's been a strong feeling on both sides of the Labour debate that members really want them to STFU - no more talking about leadership challenges on one side or deselections on the other. Everyone has simply had enough of it.
The conference was mainly a negative success in that sense - we stopped killing ourselves. I thought we were unlucky with the media selection of leaders' speech headlines - "21st century socialism" wasn't a particular prominent part of the speech, but it was the bit that the media ran with, and that only appeals to the already-convinced. But certainly the atmosphere is a lot better than it's been for the last year.
The fact that Theresa May keeps ruling out a snap election doesn't, with respect, mean anything much because the whole point of a snap election is to catch the opposition unawares and, by definition, she wouldn't want to give the impression that she might call one in advance.
May is to snap elections what Gove was to leadership elections
Given she needs Labour votes or to change the law beforehand either way there would be plenty of forewarning for an early election.
I believe her when she says no early election, I'm not sure why nobody else does.
Play the long game, Labour eats itself alive, boundary changes and of course Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
The curious thing is that Labour didn't eat itself alive. Against all odds it had the best conference of the three.
But perhaps you're right. Maybe Labour should leave the Tories alone right now.
A Clinton lead in Ohio is slightly surprising. John Kasich, who some of us backed against Trump to be Republican nominee, is governor of that state, and previous polls have placed Ohio in Trump's camp.
A Clinton lead in Ohio is slightly surprising. John Kasich, who some of us backed against Trump to be Republican nominee, is governor of that state, and previous polls have placed Ohio in Trump's camp.
Kasich has not endorsed Trump, and according to this poll, voters support his decision not to.
The curious thing is that Labour didn't eat itself alive. Against all odds it had the best conference of the three.
But perhaps you're right. Maybe Labour should leave the Tories alone right now.
Both at the conference and afterwards, there's been a strong feeling on both sides of the Labour debate that members really want them to STFU - no more talking about leadership challenges on one side or deselections on the other. Everyone has simply had enough of it.
The conference was mainly a negative success in that sense - we stopped killing ourselves. I thought we were unlucky with the media selection of leaders' speech headlines - "21st century socialism" wasn't a particular prominent part of the speech, but it was the bit that the media ran with, and that only appeals to the already-convinced. But certainly the atmosphere is a lot better than it's been for the last year.
The way the NEC vote panned out has given the Labour moderate wing a bit of hope and has bought some time. My sense is that, quite correctly, the moderate wing of the party has concluded that, given a bit of time, Corbyn and the hard left will eat themselves. I suspect that if Labour are still in the same place poll and election result wise come the summer of 2018 there will be a defenestration. The left has two years to find a new leadership candidate that the whole party can get behind.
It's another fascinating thread to read through. It seems Brexit has become the new EU membership. A blank canvas to project all our prejudices, hopes and fears onto. This will flux quite a bit until we know what Brexit actually is. Then our identity politics will reset around it. Interesting times indeed.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
I think business has changed as well - they (and their accountants) have got much better at playing the global game than national governments - and its effects are starting to be more obvious. National governments (and ours is one of the better ones) need to raise their games.
A Clinton lead in Ohio is slightly surprising. John Kasich, who some of us backed against Trump to be Republican nominee, is governor of that state, and previous polls have placed Ohio in Trump's camp.
whilst i suspect its an outlier, if clinton is close in ohio, we are back to potential clinton landslide
A Clinton lead in Ohio is slightly surprising. John Kasich, who some of us backed against Trump to be Republican nominee, is governor of that state, and previous polls have placed Ohio in Trump's camp.
whilst i suspect its an outlier, if clinton is close in ohio, we are back to potential clinton landslide
Iowa and Arizona next for Clinton on the 538 Snake:
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
A Clinton lead in Ohio is slightly surprising. John Kasich, who some of us backed against Trump to be Republican nominee, is governor of that state, and previous polls have placed Ohio in Trump's camp.
whilst i suspect its an outlier, if clinton is close in ohio, we are back to potential clinton landslide
(snip) The left has two years to find a new leadership candidate that the whole party can get behind.
Good luck with that. And you'll need more than luck selling anyone acceptable to the Labour membership to the wider voters. You're going to need to dig deep into the bran tub of miracles...
Seems Labour's biggest hope is that May screws up on the mechanics of Brexit. And you think voters are going to be won over by Labour gleefully pointing out how they should somehow be given credit for obstructing the will of the people? Again, good luck with that.
And if May does try to implement her speech of yesterday - at least to the point of getting some credit for trying - then forget about it until she decides to leave the stage. And in that time, how many of the current moderate Labour MPs are going to stay the course? And who outside of Momentum's young swivel-eyed loons are going to see Labour as a party with career prospects? Meantime, those loons are going to hold up Labour to ever more ridicule, ever more evidence of the distance travelled from being a party of power.
I know you rejoined Labour hoping to get your party back. But I just can't see a route to get there. The idiots who pushed a challenge this summer have now given Corbyn free rein until the election. If they had waited those couple of years, waited on results, then that was the chance. They could have sat in stony silence on the Labour benches. Now they might sit in stony silence anyway, but it will look like a sulk of the defeated, rather than a strategy. They can hope that May goes for an early election, to give Labour a chance to rethink and regroup. But why should she do that? She will go to 2020 with a new set of boundaries and a record to promote. She will still be opposed by a Labour Party offering a Manifesto written by Momentum. No, you have to sit back and see what idiocy Labour comes out with for the next three and a half years.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
To be honest, Boris is coming over as more disciplined than Liam Fox.
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
The Sun article has some interesting ideas:
The Sun has also learned that Brexit Secretary David Davis is also studying plans for a Turkey-style compromise.
In a “win-win” agreement, the Ankara government is signed up to the customs union for some types of goods, but is free to crack trade deals away from the EU with some other neighbouring countries too
Manufacturing and Services in, Agriculture & Fisheries out?
Though I guess the French will object on agriculture - as the Economist once described, the French see the Common Agricultural Policy as the EU's crowning glory, while the British view it as a protectionist monstrosity, fit only for destruction.......
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
Yes, I think that's right. I learnt a lot.
I am still on the centre-right and think taxing and over-regulating business stifles wealth creation. But I am not blind to special interests either.
For instance, I would consider breaking up the Big 4 accountancy firms and the way the energy market is regulated clearly needs reexamining.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
To be honest, Boris is coming over as more disciplined than Liam Fox.
Agree - Boris has put his Brain in gear and is wise to the consequences of what he says.....Fox on the other hand....
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
If Brexit is to mean anything then leaving the Customs Union is a no brainer.
I struggle to see the point of the Department for International Trade, otherwise, as we won't be free to do our own trade deals.
Unless some massive fudge is agreed with the EU, which I'm struggling to think of.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
Yes, I think that's right. I learnt a lot.
I am still on the centre-right and think taxing and over-regulating business stifles wealth creation. But I am not blind to special interests either.
For instance, I would consider breaking up the Big 4 accountancy firms and the way the energy market is regulated clearly needs reexamining.
I think May just took the Miliband manifesto on holiday and crossed out a few bits she didn't like.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
Yes, I think that's right. I learnt a lot.
I am still on the centre-right and think taxing and over-regulating business stifles wealth creation. But I am not blind to special interests either.
For instance, I would consider breaking up the Big 4 accountancy firms and the way the energy market is regulated clearly needs reexamining.
Yep - what keeps me on the centre=left, despite being very pro-business, is that I don't see how you create a country at ease with itself without a commitment to the redistribution of wealth. And as automation becomes more prevalent, that imperative is only going to increase IMO.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
To be honest, Boris is coming over as more disciplined than Liam Fox.
Well he is 10x smarter and that helps. How Fox was clever enough to qualify as a doctor is frankly beyond me. I don't think Theresa would have made that joke if they were not quite close and comfortable with each other.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
Boris is not a natural deputy and his face suggested he didn't really enjoy being put in his place or being patted on the head by his boss.
Interestingly it's all shifted me the other way. I'm moving away from a life long interest in domestic poverty towards more small c conservative concerns. For instance I've just changed my will in favour of my old university at the expense of a anti poverty charity in the north of England. The anti elite and nativist element of all this has had quite a profound effect on me. I can't go as far as supporting May's Grammars as that would be just too ridiculous yet I know understand the impulse for the first time.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
She really gets the problem you describe with a clarity that few have expressed. Whether she can deliver useful solutions is something we will have to see.
The fact that Theresa May keeps ruling out a snap election doesn't, with respect, mean anything much because the whole point of a snap election is to catch the opposition unawares and, by definition, she wouldn't want to give the impression that she might call one in advance.
May is to snap elections what Gove was to leadership elections
Given she needs Labour votes or to change the law beforehand either way there would be plenty of forewarning for an early election.
I believe her when she says no early election, I'm not sure why nobody else does.
Play the long game, Labour eats itself alive, boundary changes and of course Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
The curious thing is that Labour didn't eat itself alive. Against all odds it had the best conference of the three.
But perhaps you're right. Maybe Labour should leave the Tories alone right now.
Oh yes absolutely they did, quite so , excellent conference way ahead of the others make no mistake.
* bites down hard on knuckles to prevent laughter*
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
If Brexit is to mean anything then leaving the Customs Union is a no brainer.
I struggle to see the point of the Department for International Trade, otherwise, as we won't be free to do our own trade deals.
Unless some massive fudge is agreed with the EU, which I'm struggling to think of.
Be in no doubt - the giant fudge factories of Brussels are working over-time...
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
If Brexit is to mean anything then leaving the Customs Union is a no brainer.
I struggle to see the point of the Department for International Trade, otherwise, as we won't be free to do our own trade deals.
Unless some massive fudge is agreed with the EU, which I'm struggling to think of.
There is the Turkey style fudge where they are partly in, so no paperwork, bureaucracy and costs for certain areas of trade (the car industry being an obvious target for us since it is so integrated) but they retain the ability to do their own deals with the rest of the world.
But deals like that are complex and we are going to struggle to achieve them within 2 years.
"Battle over customs union ‘will see Philip Hammond or Liam Fox chief quit cabinet’" Sun
I cannot think of any scenario in which the government would sacrifice Hammond for Fox and it's not that Hammond is all that special but Fox really is.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
Yes, I think that's right. I learnt a lot.
I am still on the centre-right and think taxing and over-regulating business stifles wealth creation. But I am not blind to special interests either.
For instance, I would consider breaking up the Big 4 accountancy firms and the way the energy market is regulated clearly needs reexamining.
I think May just took the Miliband manifesto on holiday and crossed out a few bits she didn't like.
The thing is that Miliband was not the worst at analysing problems. It was finding workable solutions that he was absolutely crap at.
The fact that Theresa May keeps ruling out a snap election doesn't, with respect, mean anything much because the whole point of a snap election is to catch the opposition unawares and, by definition, she wouldn't want to give the impression that she might call one in advance.
May is to snap elections what Gove was to leadership elections
Given she needs Labour votes or to change the law beforehand either way there would be plenty of forewarning for an early election.
I believe her when she says no early election, I'm not sure why nobody else does.
Play the long game, Labour eats itself alive, boundary changes and of course Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
The curious thing is that Labour didn't eat itself alive. Against all odds it had the best conference of the three.
But perhaps you're right. Maybe Labour should leave the Tories alone right now.
Oh yes absolutely they did, quite so , excellent conference way ahead of the others make no mistake.
* bites down hard on knuckles to prevent laughter*
They had a good conference by smashing into a tree rather than going over the expected cliff.
The Clive Lewis debacle, Momentum up the road embarrassing themselves, a forgettable speech by Corbyn and no real policy. But at least no one ranted in about Je....oh.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
To be honest, Boris is coming over as more disciplined than Liam Fox.
Well he is 10x smarter and that helps. How Fox was clever enough to qualify as a doctor is frankly beyond me. I don't think Theresa would have made that joke if they were not quite close and comfortable with each other.
If it hadn't been for Gove, she would be working for him. I don't think that they're that chummy.
@DavidL I agree. While I hate May's response to Brexit I accept ( a) it's cogent ( b) it understands what Leave was in cultural terms ( c ) framing any response to the absurd contradictions of leave is quite an achievement ( d) it's good enough to buy her time until Brexit is complete and/or gone tits up. ( e) her response is less worse than any other practical politician has yet framed. Taken together points A to E is not nothing. No surprise she's ended up as PM. Even after yesterday's horror show I still wish her well in a curious sort of way.
I said Theresa May couldn't tell a joke to save herself but this is actually quite funny.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
To be honest, Boris is coming over as more disciplined than Liam Fox.
Well he is 10x smarter and that helps. How Fox was clever enough to qualify as a doctor is frankly beyond me. I don't think Theresa would have made that joke if they were not quite close and comfortable with each other.
I do think Boris baptism of fire set a great start for him. Fox seems to have too much time on his hands, hence his silly land grabbing letter et al.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
She really gets the problem you describe with a clarity that few have expressed. Whether she can deliver useful solutions is something we will have to see.
I've seen several suggestions that its got Gove fingerprints all over it.
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008. This is also what drives a lot of the support that Corbyn currently gets from a lot of new Labour members. Having recognised the issue, though, the really tricky part is doing something about it. Corbyn's solutions are clearly unworkable and many on the left will come to realise that, while also recognising that there is no going back to the Blair/Brown years. It will be interesting to see what practical steps May takes to address the problem from a centre right perspective - acknowledging that the austerity programme of the last six years has hurt a lot of people and abandoning the rhetoric of Osbornomics (Osborne himself had already abandoned the policies) is certainly a very major development, but it now needs follow through.
As has been pointed out repeatedly, not least on here, with huge trading blocs such as China, the ASEAN countries, and the FSU states now entering the manufacturing and labour markets, it was inevitable that the result would be a diminution of wealth for incumbent developed nations.
The challenge, to which I think the UK has risen reasonably well, is to move higher up the value-add and innovation chain.
But this of course requires that the country's education and vocational training is up to the job. I don't believe it is for everyone.
As the man said, education x3 remains the largest challenge. Sort that out and a lot of the pieces fall into place.
The fact that Theresa May keeps ruling out a snap election doesn't, with respect, mean anything much because the whole point of a snap election is to catch the opposition unawares and, by definition, she wouldn't want to give the impression that she might call one in advance.
Yes, but on the other hand May is no Osborne and "getting one over on Labour" is much lower down her list of priorities than "doing the right thing" - which as she has repeatedly stated is making Brexit work
Politicians state things all the time, and with many people convinced may wanted Brexit all along, those same people are saying she lied about that previously. You know may feel she is just adjusted to the new order, but that is the point.
She may mean what she says and be no Osborne. It's too early to sat it for sure, as all we can point to is words and early actions, which are not definitive.
She would be ality look silly if she didn't obfuscate or allow some flexibility despite firmness of tone now. Even corbyn is learning the you need freedom to have options later if the chance for advantage arises . She either lied about the EU vote or adjusted to the new order. She might adjust later on many issues.
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
If Brexit is to mean anything then leaving the Customs Union is a no brainer.
I struggle to see the point of the Department for International Trade, otherwise, as we won't be free to do our own trade deals.
Unless some massive fudge is agreed with the EU, which I'm struggling to think of.
There is the Turkey style fudge where they are partly in, so no paperwork, bureaucracy and costs for certain areas of trade (the car industry being an obvious target for us since it is so integrated) but they retain the ability to do their own deals with the rest of the world.
But deals like that are complex and we are going to struggle to achieve them within 2 years.
I think this is what we'll end up with. We still need to rebalance our economy, and it doesn't seem sensible to pull the rug from successes like the car industry without giving it a great deal of thought. Also, a lot of the 48% could reconcile themselves to it, which is helpful in the long term.
The BBC is just buying the entire Theresa May narrative.
The BBC are desperate for another Blairite Labour government and they know that getting rid of Corbyn and McDonnell as soon as possible is the only way to get that dream back on track. Well, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but not much.
The bbc is by and large mainstream. Despite its energising of the left Corbynism is not mainstream yet. Perhaps one day.
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!
also, trump ia doing a lot worse than romney, by around 5 points nationally
No he is not, RCP has Hillary leading Trump by 3.8% today, Romney lost by 3.9% to Obama
im talking about in pre-election polls. romney was leading by 2 at this stage 4 years ago
Romney won the first debate (which is the point at which you are referring to in the polls) but lost the second and third. He also went into the debates further behind than Trump was
what do you think i mean by doing worse??? he lost the debate, thats his own damn fault. he is doing worse than romney at the moment.
Depends on what poll you look at, Trump is ahead with Rasmussen and the LA Times, Pence won the debate last night, the Wikileaks on Benghazi etc start in the next few days and the second debate is Sunday.
What Rasmussen? Latest one I've seen is a Clinton lead.
The customs union is difficult. While staying in will disappoint those who expected us to sign new trade deals with other countries, I do worry that deciding to leave could be disastrous for the integrated supply chains which modern manufacturing is dependent on.
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
If Brexit is to mean anything then leaving the Customs Union is a no brainer.
I struggle to see the point of the Department for International Trade, otherwise, as we won't be free to do our own trade deals.
Unless some massive fudge is agreed with the EU, which I'm struggling to think of.
There is the Turkey style fudge where they are partly in, so no paperwork, bureaucracy and costs for certain areas of trade (the car industry being an obvious target for us since it is so integrated) but they retain the ability to do their own deals with the rest of the world.
But deals like that are complex and we are going to struggle to achieve them within 2 years.
I think this is what we'll end up with. We still need to rebalance our economy, and it doesn't seem sensible to pull the rug from successes like the car industry without giving it a great deal of thought. Also, a lot of the 48% could reconcile themselves to it, which is helpful in the long term.
A Lot Of The 48 May Well Have Wanted That From The Start But achievability Is The question
One the advantages or disadvantages of remaining in the EU Customs Union, can I repost a question from last night? I am interested to know what people think.
---
ADVANTAGES of REMAINING in CUSTOM UNION 1. Tariff -free transit of industrial goods with the EU/EEA (but not services or agriculture) 2. Ready-made set of free trade agreements with third party countries already negotiated by the EU. DIY will result in a long gap while the new deals are negotiated. The EU has more market clout than the UK to get better deals 3. Much lower burden of red tape as exporters with supply chains don’t require origination certification for the components nor for finished products 4. UK negotiators can concentrate on the key EU and WTO arrangements. They are spread too thin to take on third country negotiations as well. 5. Early commitment to a Customs Union would remove uncertainty for investment in UK industrials (think Nissan in Sunderland). 6. BONUS advantage! Possible redundancy for Liam Fox. The UK would still be able to negotiate Free Trade Agreements with third countries, but is presumably constrained to the import tariffs already set by the EU.
ADVANTAGES of LEAVING the CUSTOM UNION 1. The UK can unilaterally reduce its import duties allowing them to compete better with EU countries on price for finished products to third countries 2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so have a higher chance of success than the EU does.
Is that a fair summary? If so, an early commitment to the EU Customs Union is compelling, because there are more advantages and more immediately useful ones. The politics may say otherwise of course. What do people think?
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!
also, trump ia doing a lot worse than romney, by around 5 points nationally
No he is not, RCP has Hillary leading Trump by 3.8% today, Romney lost by 3.9% to Obama
im talking about in pre-election polls. romney was leading by 2 at this stage 4 years ago
Romney won the first debate (which is the point at which you are referring to in the polls) but lost the second and third. He also went into the debates further behind than Trump was
what do you think i mean by doing worse??? he lost the debate, thats his own damn fault. he is doing worse than romney at the moment.
Depends on what poll you look at, Trump is ahead with Rasmussen and the LA Times, Pence won the debate last night, the Wikileaks on Benghazi etc start in the next few days and the second debate is Sunday.
What Rasmussen? Latest one I've seen is a Clinton lead.
the la times, wikileaks and the mythical pivot: Trumpers last hope
I cannot think of any scenario in which the government would sacrifice Hammond for Fox and it's not that Hammond is all that special but Fox really is.
Fox is a Brexiteer and Hammond isn't.
If Hammond's head is the price demanded by the Ultras, on current form May will happily pay it.
I cannot think of any scenario in which the government would sacrifice Hammond for Fox and it's not that Hammond is all that special but Fox really is.
Fox is a Brexiteer and Hammond isn't.
If Hammond's head is the price demanded by the Ultras, on current form May will happily pay it.
May can afford to lose one Brexiteer - especially if it is Fox. Why do you think she put three in in the first place?
Trump is doing as well as Romney did in 2012 at the moment, there is no reason at all for him to drop out, especially as the GOP side are not exactly filled with brilliant alternative candidates either and Trump-Pence is now already on the ballot in many states. The Benghazi Wikileaks is also due to be released in the next few days, just before Sunday's debate http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-revelations-about-the-u-s-election-to-be-released-in-a-few-days/
I think you might have missed Alex Jones's meltdown over Wikileaks.
Wikileaks never actually said the leaks would be today, the press conference was just a publicity statement, Assange's spokeswoman confirmed today the first release would be in the next few days with more coming a few days after
It's so hyped it's a guaranteed damp squib.
i thought you said it would be today that the leak would happen? in fact, roger stone guaranteed it!
also, trump ia doing a lot worse than romney, by around 5 points nationally
No he is not, RCP has Hillary leading Trump by 3.8% today, Romney lost by 3.9% to Obama
im talking about in pre-election polls. romney was leading by 2 at this stage 4 years ago
Romney won the first debate (which is the point at which you are referring to in the polls) but lost the second and third. He also went into the debates further behind than Trump was
what do you think i mean by doing worse??? he lost the debate, thats his own damn fault. he is doing worse than romney at the moment.
Depends on what poll you look at, Trump is ahead with Rasmussen and the LA Times, Pence won the debate last night, the Wikileaks on Benghazi etc start in the next few days and the second debate is Sunday.
What Rasmussen? Latest one I've seen is a Clinton lead.
Rasmussen yesterday had Trump 1% ahead in a 4 way race
''EU Mini Mart v Brexit Globalist Entrepreneurs.''
If only Theresa was an globalist entrepreneur. Zero evidence of that today. Plenty of bile for business and people with money. poking her nose everywhere. Nothing on the free market. Big distrust of 'individualists' Workers on boards FFS.
It actually makes something of a refreshing change to have a PM who is not constantly sucking up to the super rich and big business a la Blair and Cameron but is ready to stand up for the average worker. May is no socialist but nor is she mesmerised by money either
That's my view.
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
(snip) The left has two years to find a new leadership candidate that the whole party can get behind.
Good luck with that. And you'll need more than luck selling anyone acceptable to the Labour membership to the wider voters. You're going to need to dig deep into the bran tub of miracles...
Seems Labour's biggest hope is that May screws up on the mechanics of Brexit. And you think voters are going to be won over by Labour gleefully pointing out how they should somehow be given credit for obstructing the will of the people? Again, good luck with that.
And if May does try to implement her speech of yesterday - at least to the point of getting some credit for trying - then forget about it until she decides to leave the stage. And in that time, how many of the current moderate Labour MPs are going to stay the course? And who outside of Momentum's young swivel-eyed loons are going to see Labour as a party with career prospects? Meantime, those loons are going to hold up Labour to ever more ridicule, ever more evidence of the distance travelled from being a party of power.
I know you rejoined Labour hoping to get your party back. But I just can't see a route to get there. The idiots who pushed a challenge this summer have now given Corbyn free rein until the election. If they had waited those couple of years, waited on results, then that was the chance. They could have sat in stony silence on the Labour benches. Now they might sit in stony silence anyway, but it will look like a sulk of the defeated, rather than a strategy. They can hope that May goes for an early election, to give Labour a chance to rethink and regroup. But why should she do that? She will go to 2020 with a new set of boundaries and a record to promote. She will still be opposed by a Labour Party offering a Manifesto written by Momentum. No, you have to sit back and see what idiocy Labour comes out with for the next three and a half years.
Or help go form a new party.
Significant opposition amongst NorthWest Tory MPs to Boundary changes. Peter Bone also seems opposed to the reduction in number of MPs. I doubt that they will be approved.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008.
One of the more astute comments about Brexit was that the alienation and disaffection with politics is now more evenly spread.
Can't make up my mind whether this was a good thing or not. The fact that some here are now promoting negative immigration, or what it used to be called "the brain drain", I doubt it.
One very positive aspect of the referendum campaign was that it clearly did open up at least some eyes that a lot of people have been left behind as a result of globalisation and that this is something that has happened over the course of a few decades, rather than just since 2008.
One of the more astute comments about Brexit was that the alienation and disaffection with politics is now more evenly spread.
Can't make up my mind whether this was a good thing or not. The fact that some here are now promoting negative immigration, or what it used to be called "the brain drain", I doubt it.
I am pro-immigration (albeit controlled net immigration), but let's be clear, "the brain drain" is not the same as negative immigration, it is a very particular sub-set of it.
A Clinton lead in Ohio is slightly surprising. John Kasich, who some of us backed against Trump to be Republican nominee, is governor of that state, and previous polls have placed Ohio in Trump's camp.
Kasich has not endorsed Trump, and according to this poll, voters support his decision not to.
Lovely example of litotes. Kasich has been derisory of all things Trump.
Comments
James Lyons replies: I haven't noticed Labour doing much
'night
The conference was mainly a negative success in that sense - we stopped killing ourselves. I thought we were unlucky with the media selection of leaders' speech headlines - "21st century socialism" wasn't a particular prominent part of the speech, but it was the bit that the media ran with, and that only appeals to the already-convinced. But certainly the atmosphere is a lot better than it's been for the last year.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/10/05/state-ohio-election-polls.html
If I've changed at all, politically, over the last 5-10 years it's been that I've realised business isn't "always" good, as I used to think - they have their interests, just like anyone else.
Separately, the key Cabinet minister’s aide risked angering No10 yesterday by slapping a new red line on Britain’s departing deal with Brussels.
Mr Davis’ parliamentary private secretary Stewart Jackson insisted Mrs May will refuse to pay any contributions into the EU budget after we leave.
Downing Street slapped down Mr Jackson last night to say his red line claim on any EU budget contributions after Brexit was just "a personal view".
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/battle-over-customs-union-will-see-philip-hammond-or-liam-fox-chief-quit-cabinet/
Oh, and Fox could be first out of the Cabinet.....
Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
https://www.scribd.com/document/326538857/OH-Sen-Anzalone-Liszt-Grove-for-the-Ohio-Education-Association-Oct-2016
National - Clinton 83.2 .. Trump 10.6
Florida - Clinton 76.5 .. Trump 17.6
Miami-Dade - 71.3 .. 20.0
Note - Post debate slump for Trump. Overall running over 15 points worse than Romney. Trump cannot win Florida on these numbers.
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
As a die-hard Brexiteer, it is crucial that we don't have a litany of bad news during the next two years. Is CU membership a price worth paying?
Quite possibly.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/
Seems Labour's biggest hope is that May screws up on the mechanics of Brexit. And you think voters are going to be won over by Labour gleefully pointing out how they should somehow be given credit for obstructing the will of the people? Again, good luck with that.
And if May does try to implement her speech of yesterday - at least to the point of getting some credit for trying - then forget about it until she decides to leave the stage. And in that time, how many of the current moderate Labour MPs are going to stay the course? And who outside of Momentum's young swivel-eyed loons are going to see Labour as a party with career prospects? Meantime, those loons are going to hold up Labour to ever more ridicule, ever more evidence of the distance travelled from being a party of power.
I know you rejoined Labour hoping to get your party back. But I just can't see a route to get there. The idiots who pushed a challenge this summer have now given Corbyn free rein until the election. If they had waited those couple of years, waited on results, then that was the chance. They could have sat in stony silence on the Labour benches. Now they might sit in stony silence anyway, but it will look like a sulk of the defeated, rather than a strategy. They can hope that May goes for an early election, to give Labour a chance to rethink and regroup. But why should she do that? She will go to 2020 with a new set of boundaries and a record to promote. She will still be opposed by a Labour Party offering a Manifesto written by Momentum. No, you have to sit back and see what idiocy Labour comes out with for the next three and a half years.
Or help go form a new party.
"When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air.
Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do.
Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are.
Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days? Just about."
I am trying to remember how long Liam Fox stayed in the Cabinet the first time around. Will he beat that? I suspect the taxi is hovering and only a determination on the part of May to show a united front is stopping his antics from being terminal.
The Sun has also learned that Brexit Secretary David Davis is also studying plans for a Turkey-style compromise.
In a “win-win” agreement, the Ankara government is signed up to the customs union for some types of goods, but is free to crack trade deals away from the EU with some other neighbouring countries too
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/battle-over-customs-union-will-see-philip-hammond-or-liam-fox-chief-quit-cabinet/
Manufacturing and Services in, Agriculture & Fisheries out?
Though I guess the French will object on agriculture - as the Economist once described, the French see the Common Agricultural Policy as the EU's crowning glory, while the British view it as a protectionist monstrosity, fit only for destruction.......
I am still on the centre-right and think taxing and over-regulating business stifles wealth creation. But I am not blind to special interests either.
For instance, I would consider breaking up the Big 4 accountancy firms and the way the energy market is regulated clearly needs reexamining.
I struggle to see the point of the Department for International Trade, otherwise, as we won't be free to do our own trade deals.
Unless some massive fudge is agreed with the EU, which I'm struggling to think of.
She really gets the problem you describe with a clarity that few have expressed. Whether she can deliver useful solutions is something we will have to see.
* bites down hard on knuckles to prevent laughter*
But deals like that are complex and we are going to struggle to achieve them within 2 years.
I cannot think of any scenario in which the government would sacrifice Hammond for Fox and it's not that Hammond is all that special but Fox really is.
The Clive Lewis debacle, Momentum up the road embarrassing themselves, a forgettable speech by Corbyn and no real policy. But at least no one ranted in about Je....oh.
The challenge, to which I think the UK has risen reasonably well, is to move higher up the value-add and innovation chain.
But this of course requires that the country's education and vocational training is up to the job. I don't believe it is for everyone.
As the man said, education x3 remains the largest challenge. Sort that out and a lot of the pieces fall into place.
She may mean what she says and be no Osborne. It's too early to sat it for sure, as all we can point to is words and early actions, which are not definitive.
She would be ality look silly if she didn't obfuscate or allow some flexibility despite firmness of tone now. Even corbyn is learning the you need freedom to have options later if the chance for advantage arises . She either lied about the EU vote or adjusted to the new order. She might adjust later on many issues.
---
ADVANTAGES of REMAINING in CUSTOM UNION
1. Tariff -free transit of industrial goods with the EU/EEA (but not services or agriculture)
2. Ready-made set of free trade agreements with third party countries already negotiated by the EU. DIY will result in a long gap while the new deals are negotiated. The EU has more market clout than the UK to get better deals
3. Much lower burden of red tape as exporters with supply chains don’t require origination certification for the components nor for finished products
4. UK negotiators can concentrate on the key EU and WTO arrangements. They are spread too thin to take on third country negotiations as well.
5. Early commitment to a Customs Union would remove uncertainty for investment in UK industrials (think Nissan in Sunderland).
6. BONUS advantage! Possible redundancy for Liam Fox. The UK would still be able to negotiate Free Trade Agreements with third countries, but is presumably constrained to the import tariffs already set by the EU.
ADVANTAGES of LEAVING the CUSTOM UNION
1. The UK can unilaterally reduce its import duties allowing them to compete better with EU countries on price for finished products to third countries
2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so have a higher chance of success than the EU does.
Is that a fair summary? If so, an early commitment to the EU Customs Union is compelling, because there are more advantages and more immediately useful ones. The politics may say otherwise of course. What do people think?
Theresa Mayliband
If Hammond's head is the price demanded by the Ultras, on current form May will happily pay it.
Can't make up my mind whether this was a good thing or not. The fact that some here are now promoting negative immigration, or what it used to be called "the brain drain", I doubt it.
Lovely example of litotes. Kasich has been derisory of all things Trump.