politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A rather subdued speech by TMay which did not have much sub

Fourth. Like UKIP (at best)

Let's have an election in 2017 and see whether people agree with Theresa May's vision for the country.

The response was subdued because it contained relatively little Tory 'red meat' and was principally aimed at the centrist floating voter. The latter heard a lot of the things they wanted to hear, but precious little about how any of it is to happen.

From prev thread in response to a question about inflation.. I cannot really give a figure.. economists will be able to.. but pain there will be...how much is the question...

FPT

I'm worried for the government at the moment. This is not what people voted for in 2015. Brexit may have changed the political landscape, but abandoning free market economics and instituting semi-market economics is not what people voted for. If she wants to make such a radical departure from the 2015 manifesto then she should put it to the people.

She is not Thatcher no, May is 10 points ahead in the polls unlike Thatcher who was 10 points behind at this stage of her premiership as she pursued a far more laissez faire and monetarist agenda. In style May is more Merkel

TheScreamingEagles said:

She's just a pound shop Ed Miliband/Gordon Brown.

More John Major

JonathanD said:

taffys said:

I guess May has calculated that the free market Thatcherite right can go f8ck themselves.

Who else are they going to vote for?

In a few years time the EU will look like a free market utopia compared to the UK.

Not France certainly

edmundintokyo said:

AndyJS said:

Let's have an election in 2017 and see whether people agree with Theresa May's vision for the country.

Thanks to Jeremy Corbyn and the magic of FPTP, an election would deliver a mandate for pretty much anything she could possibly come up with.

Indeed. She could stand on a platform consisting of nothing more than free biscuits for labradors and still win easily.

Such is the abject shiteness of Corbyn and his dimwit acolytes.

taffys said:

'The foreign doctors/Jonny Foreigners list speaks volumes about her. '

Rudd is way out of her depth. Way out.

Is there a woman (other than May) that you would ever characterise as not out of their depth?

matt said:

taffys said:

'The foreign doctors/Jonny Foreigners list speaks volumes about her. '

Rudd is way out of her depth. Way out.

Is there a woman (other than May) that you would ever characterise as not out of their depth?

Thatcher I would guess.

Just out of interest, does anyone now see her as a supreme strategist with a secret master-plan for Brexit?

MaxPB said:

FPT

I'm worried for the government at the moment. This is not what people voted for in 2015. Brexit may have changed the political landscape, but abandoning free market economics and instituting semi-market economics is not what people voted for. If she wants to make such a radical departure from the 2015 manifesto then she should put it to the people.

She has decided that the free market didn't work for many people in this country; the anger that this failure generated resulted in the Brexit vote. Ergo she wants to curtail the free market and make the government instead of the free market work for those many people.

Of course it is all symptom, not cause but it makes for a great soundbite at conference. Neither is it my preferred flavour of Conservative.

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

She is not Thatcher no, May is 10 points ahead in the polls unlike Thatcher who was 10 points behind at this stage of her premiership as she pursued a far more laissez faire and monetarist agenda. In style May is more Merkel

Thatcher was NOT 10% behind at this stage. LAB had lead of 1-2% 84 days in

OK perhaps overestimated the Labour lead at this stage, though it grew but the point remains May has a comfortable lead at this stage while Thatcher was behind

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

I'm worried for the government at the moment. This is not what people voted for in 2015. Brexit may have changed the political landscape, but abandoning free market economics and instituting semi-market economics is not what people voted for. If she wants to make such a radical departure from the 2015 manifesto then she should put it to the people.

She has decided that the free market didn't work for many people in this country; the anger that this failure generated resulted in the Brexit vote. Ergo she wants to curtail the free market and make the government instead of the free market work for those many people.

Of course it is all symptom, not cause but it makes for a great soundbite at conference. Neither is it my preferred flavour of Conservative.

She has embraced Milibandism and Fragism all at once. Does that make her a Milibargist?

Does anyone in UKIP agree with anyone else? I think it even outbonkers Lab because at least there we roughly know the various factions.

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of the interesting snippets I heard at conference was that Mrs May has really damaged the case for grammar schools because of the lack of answers about the children who fail to get into grammar schools.


I might warm to Mrs May after all.

Only as the plans were leaked. Technical schools, academies etc should all be considered and there are admissions to grammars at 13 and 16 too

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

I'm worried for the government at the moment. This is not what people voted for in 2015. Brexit may have changed the political landscape, but abandoning free market economics and instituting semi-market economics is not what people voted for. If she wants to make such a radical departure from the 2015 manifesto then she should put it to the people.

She has decided that the free market didn't work for many people in this country; the anger that this failure generated resulted in the Brexit vote. Ergo she wants to curtail the free market and make the government instead of the free market work for those many people.

Of course it is all symptom, not cause but it makes for a great soundbite at conference. Neither is it my preferred flavour of Conservative.

Treating the symptoms rarely works in the long term. Reforming education is the answer. Making British workers more attractive to businesses while also getting on top of the housing crisis to reduce the major cost of living is the answer. More government is not what we need or what will work.

I'm beginning to hope that Dave and Boris making amends will mean the Notting Hill set will get the band back together and depose May if she goes top far off the reservation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of the interesting snippets I heard at conference was that Mrs May has really damaged the case for grammar schools because of the lack of answers about the children who fail to get into grammar schools.
...

This is very true. It was an unnecessary own goal. A simple "we are reviewing this" would have sufficed. No new schools are going to be delivering 18 year old grammar school pupils for at least 8 years. A date when Mrs May has probably retired.

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

I'm worried for the government at the moment. This is not what people voted for in 2015. Brexit may have changed the political landscape, but abandoning free market economics and instituting semi-market economics is not what people voted for. If she wants to make such a radical departure from the 2015 manifesto then she should put it to the people.

She has decided that the free market didn't work for many people in this country; the anger that this failure generated resulted in the Brexit vote. Ergo she wants to curtail the free market and make the government instead of the free market work for those many people.

Of course it is all symptom, not cause but it makes for a great soundbite at conference. Neither is it my preferred flavour of Conservative.

Treating the symptoms rarely works in the long term. Reforming education is the answer. Making British workers more attractive to businesses while also getting on top of the housing crisis to reduce the major cost of living is the answer. More government is not what we need or what will work.

One of the worst bits of here speech is when she starts banging on about auditting the government to see which groups are unrepresented etc etc etc. The reason simple, the demographics coming out of the top universities and the reason for that is not racism, it is secondary education. And we know if you start secondary education lagging it is an uphill struggle....

Its not rocket science and why KIPPs is so successful.

If the government is going to get interventionist about things, the place to do it is early years / education, not counting how many people of Sri Lankan descent work in the Culture and Media Department of the government, and demanding we take graduates from crappier universities / courses just to even out the numbers.

Plus do admissions to unis post results, so any bias based upon perceived difference in quality of students from certain schools with the same predicted grades is wiped out by the hard facts of actual results.

Does this mean that Hammond's autumn statement will have more tax cuts and incentives for business? Maybe even a rolliing back of red tape?

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
Biggest big ticket item of all in May speech is clear hint she'll decommission the QE bazooka. Aides say AutumnStatement will signal change

Theresa May will never be a polished and exciting performer, and she would be the first to admit it. Comparing her to Margaret Thatcher is infantile (and, of course, designed to provoke). Overall, a rather dull speech, I thought, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Her best line was nailing Labour, though. The anti-Semitism that has been allowed to foster in Labour's ranks has been one of the most shameful episodes in British politics, so well done to May for calling it out on a very public stage.

Anyway, a very long way to go in her Premiership, but as it stands today, I offer her a decent dose of good will and wish her well - at least for now.

All I'd say is that if Amber Rudd is a Lib Dem sleeper, she's doing a great job.

All this shaming companies for employing foreign workers is an absolute gift for where Farron is trying to pitch the party.

And with Corbyn AWOL and UKIP just A - this is open goal territory.

I suspect some advisers have had words and the subdued tone was intentional. If Brexit goes horribly wrong then any triumphalism or arrogance would look very bad retrospectively. We'd be in John Major territory six days before Black Wednesday:

'The soft option, the devaluer's option, the inflationary option, in my judgment that would be a betrayal of our future at this moment, and I tell you categorically that is not the government's policy.'

Mr. Essexit, she's beaten both Allardyce[sp] and Entwhistle[sp] for short terms of office.

An end to QE should see a stock market wobble. So far it's just thinking about it...

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

I'm beginning to hope that Dave and Boris making amends will mean the Notting Hill set will get the band back together and depose May if she goes top far off the reservation.

You do realise Dave has gone, don't you?

The Provisional Wing of the Continuity Cameroon Army haven't gone away you know.

Jonathan said:

Maggie Thatcher wasn't Maggie Thatcher until about 8 years into the job.

Exactly - early Thatcher was all about 'when will we get rid of her?' - until General Galtieri saved her bacon.

Lets wait for tomorrow's front pages, shall we?

MaxPB said:

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

I'm worried for the government at the moment. This is not what people voted for in 2015. Brexit may have changed the political landscape, but abandoning free market economics and instituting semi-market economics is not what people voted for. If she wants to make such a radical departure from the 2015 manifesto then she should put it to the people.

She has decided that the free market didn't work for many people in this country; the anger that this failure generated resulted in the Brexit vote. Ergo she wants to curtail the free market and make the government instead of the free market work for those many people.

Of course it is all symptom, not cause but it makes for a great soundbite at conference. Neither is it my preferred flavour of Conservative.

Treating the symptoms rarely works in the long term. Reforming education is the answer. Making British workers more attractive to businesses while also getting on top of the housing crisis to reduce the major cost of living is the answer. More government is not what we need or what will work.

Reforming education has a 20+ year lead time, and yes its essential, but it has two big flaws. Most obviously it won't yield anything useful in four years for the next election, but also the problem will persist for almost all of those 20 years and the voters are demanding a quicker fix than that, and if she doesnt give it to them, they will try and elect someone else to do it.

So how about this:

£12.50 NLW, universal childcare from age 1-4, a year of split parental leave, child tax credits turned into additional tax allowances, working tax credits and housing benefits eliminated. Families with a stay at home parent get to transfer their tax free allowance in lieu of childcare. Eliminate employer's NI and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for SMEs and 15% for big business in order to pave the way for higher wages.

A system that will ensure there are fewer low paid people and no excuses for not taking on more work and not working full time, even for single parents.

A no nonsense, no bullshit approach to early years education. Sure start was Labour's big idea in this area, but it like so much of New Labour doesn't achieve despite massive amount of money being spent. Working in this area requires some difficult decisions and not being knocked off course by some negative headlines.

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

I'm beginning to hope that Dave and Boris making amends will mean the Notting Hill set will get the band back together and depose May if she goes top far off the reservation.

You do realise Dave has gone, don't you?

Dave might be gone, but his friends are still there.

Dave = Ned Stark

surbiton said:

She is really boring.

Boring will do quite nicely thank you against Trot unilateralists and friends of continuity IRA....

538 now showing Ohio for Clinton.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/
She now has 75% chance of winning.

surbiton said:

She is really boring.

That's a positive for many people.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On QE, see here at 13:47:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/05/brexit-fears-pound-lows-dollar-euro-service-sector-imf-business-live

Did you read the previous post about the IMF warning about the solvency of pension companies? It's quite amusing to see that post followed by the one from the Adam Smith Institute!

Indigo said:

A £12.50 NLW will definitely hit jobs, and all the rest are all spending items, some of them very expensive spending items, are they not, and the government is trying to cut spending.

Eliminating housing benefits and tax credits would save £60bn, eliminating employer's NI will cost about the same, lowering corporation tax would cost about £8bn, the additional income taxes raised from higher earnings would cover the losses. The additional spending commitment would be transferrable tax allowances for stay at home parents and extending childcare provision, but I think overall the net effect would be close to zero. What it may do is cause wages in non protected areas to drag, so middle and higher income people might see a few years of real terms wage deflation as companies claw back their margins where they can.

Alistair said:

Interesting North Carolina factoid.

At the start of Postal Voting unreturned postal votes by affiliation stood at 35% Rep, 37% Dem, 28% Independent

By the 23rd Of September (1st Debate) unreturned postal votes were 35% Rep, 36% Dem, 29% Independent.

As of yesterday it's: 41% Rep, 31% Dem, 28% Independent unreturned.

Just getting my head around the wording here.

I am right in understanding that between 23/9 and yesterday, a higher proportion of registered Democrat voters have returned their ballots than registered Republican voters, i.e. a differential (early) turnout that should favour the Democrats? Could there be other factors like rural / urban post speeds to consider?

Mr. Surbiton, I didn't vote Conservative at the last local or European elections.

'Everybody' would appear to be wrong, again.

I disagree with OGH on this - I felt the response to her speech was electric.

And she is very much like Maggie IMHO, although too early to say if she'll match her success.

A Conservative Prime Minister who's a corporatist and whose premiership will be remembered for Europe? Truly Theresa May is the Ted Heath de nos jours.

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

Let's have an election in 2017 and see whether people agree with Theresa May's vision for the country.

Well, quite. I'm not a huge fan of Ms May, I don't like the leftier nanny state stuff, I'm wary of her on Hard Brexit, and concerned she will harm universities amongst other things. But she's clearly better than ANY alternative, apart from Ruth Davidson, heh, and what's even clearer is that all this stuff will be very popular Out There.

She'd romp home to a huge victory, right now.

I expect the result in Witney in 2 weeks time will be poor enough for the Conservatives that it ends all talk of an early GE .

Pro_Rata said:

Alistair said:

Interesting North Carolina factoid.

At the start of Postal Voting unreturned postal votes by affiliation stood at 35% Rep, 37% Dem, 28% Independent

By the 23rd Of September (1st Debate) unreturned postal votes were 35% Rep, 36% Dem, 29% Independent.

As of yesterday it's: 41% Rep, 31% Dem, 28% Independent unreturned.

Just getting my head around the wording here.

I am right in understanding that between 23/9 and yesterday, a higher proportion of registered Democrat voters have returned their ballots than registered Republican voters, i.e. a differential (early) turnout that should favour the Democrats? Could there be other factors like rural / urban post speeds to consider?

Ugh, yeah, my wording is awful.

You are correct. Dems are posting back at a higher rate.

MaxPB said:

Mrs May should be reminded that energy prices crashed about a year after Ed wanted to put his price freeze in place. If prices were frozen and people were tied into longer term contracts then everyone would have been paying over the odds for a couple of years. It was the free market that saw energy prices fall.

To quote me: "the seeds of every oil price crash are sown in the previous boom".

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A Conservative Prime Minister who's a corporatist and whose premiership will be remembered for Europe? Truly Theresa May is the Ted Heath de nos jours.

She's also quite close, in many ways, to John Major.

John Major had a vision of the state as servant of its public. His much-mocked citizen's charter, complete with cones hotline, set the course of government engagement with the public for the next generation.

Theresa May, on the other hand, seems to be a fan of big bossy government.