I wouldnt worry too much. To have any chance of getting our way in negotiations with an acceptable soft brexit deal we have to make plain as a pikestaff to the EU that as far as we are concerned, if they dont play ball we are prepared to say 'Face, Bovvered?, Sod You, Doubles and WTO all round' - and importantly do the research and preparation for this.
That BBC project fear II report forecasting that we will lose Billions from a hard brexit is written by Hector Sants. Anyone remember him? He was our man at the now defunct FSA before and during the banking crisis. He even approved the infamous RBS takeover of ABN AMRO which caused such massive damage to our economy.
"Mr Sants joined the FSA in a senior position in 2004 and took over as chief executive in July 2007, just weeks before the run on Northern Rock that heralded the banking crisis. MPs on the Commons Treasury committee accused him of being ‘asleep at the wheel’ as the crisis took hold, although he later insisted the run on the bank could have been prevented if ministers and the Bank of England had followed his advice. Mr Sants also approved the Royal Bank of Scotland’s disastrous takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro, which left the Scottish bank needing a £45billion bailout from the taxpayer in 2008."
47% want the UK to leave the single market to get full control over immigration, 39% would accept modified free movement in order to remain in the single market. 60% of Tory voters and 87% of UKIP voters back hard Brexit, compared to just 35% of Labour voters http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-hard-brexit-has-widespread-support-2016-10
Oh come off it, parts of the world, notably the middle east are knee deep in expat service workers from southern europe and asia, the vast majority are treated vastly more shabbily that would ever be contemplated in the UK even under worse plausible government. They come in their droves because there is work there and they want the money.
Edit: Seriously dont get me started on UKBA I have years of tales to tell there, but other places are definitely worse.
It's interesting how the national debate is no longer conservatism versus socialism in the same way as the last election, or 2010 before that.
It's liberalism versus nationalism. Labour policy, if there is one, is not too far off Charlie Kennedy's left wing Lib Dems; the Tories have gone full UKIP. The third and fourth parties (shut up SNP) have had their clothes stolen.
Oh come off it, parts of the world, notably the middle east are knee deep in expat service workers from southern europe and asia, the vast majority are treated vastly more shabbily that would ever be contemplated in the UK even under worse plausible government. They come in their droves because there is work there and they want the money.
Edit: Seriously dont get me started on UKBA I have years of tales to tell there, but other places are definitely worse.
If you work in the UAE though you pay virtually no tax
This recession we're in is a more pressing matter though.
What recession? You do realise that just about everyone is forecasting growth in 2016Q3?
You have jumped off the cliff , half way to the rocks below and shout out " Look No broken bones - you were wrong " .
Eeyore has a poor opinion of most of the other animals in the Forest, describing them as having "No brain at all, some of them", "only grey fluff that's blown into their heads by mistake" (from chapter 1 of The House at Pooh Corner)
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
Nope. You must be a mere slip of a lad, not to remember how difficult and expensive doing anything abroad was in those days, with exchange controls and no cheap flights and no interweb. I'm not saying there were none, but "a load" massively overstates it.
There was nothing difficult about travelling to or living in Spain under Franco or Portugal under the Salazar regime. It was a bit more expensive to get there, perhaps and if they didn't want you they could throw you out but the administration was not much different that it is today. You arrived, filled out a form, paid a small sum of money (plus, in Portugal, an equal sum in the form of a bribe to the official) and you got your residence permit. Easy peasy. Crikey, in the sixties there were small towns wholly owned by Germans along the Spanish Coast.
I don't doubt you, but people didn't do it so much. In 1981 there were 198,000 foreigners (all nationalities) living in Spain as against 5 million in 2014 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Spain
The same is true about expats in asia, where the requirements are substantially same now as they were then. Its not the ease of the process that has changed so much as more people live and work abroad. The UK now has the largest diaspora of any first world country.
Oh come off it, parts of the world, notably the middle east are knee deep in expat service workers from southern europe and asia, the vast majority are treated vastly more shabbily that would ever be contemplated in the UK even under worse plausible government. They come in their droves because there is work there and they want the money.
Edit: Seriously dont get me started on UKBA I have years of tales to tell there, but other places are definitely worse.
If you work in the UAE though you pay virtually no tax
This doesnt alter my point, most expat service workers are abroad for the money (either directly, or because they dont pay much tax) and most are used to, or at least expecting fairly shabby treatment, its the "its personal" view which is cobblers.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
Nope. You must be a mere slip of a lad, not to remember how difficult and expensive doing anything abroad was in those days, with exchange controls and no cheap flights and no interweb. I'm not saying there were none, but "a load" massively overstates it.
There was nothing difficult about travelling to or living in Spain under Franco or Portugal under the Salazar regime. It was a bit more expensive to get there, perhaps and if they didn't want you they could throw you out but the administration was not much different that it is today. You arrived, filled out a form, paid a small sum of money (plus, in Portugal, an equal sum in the form of a bribe to the official) and you got your residence permit. Easy peasy. Crikey, in the sixties there were small towns wholly owned by Germans along the Spanish Coast.
in the sixties there were small towns wholly owned by Germans along the Spanish Coast.
well they decided Poland in the forties was too cold.
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
I am pretty sure we didn't! It was nowhere near the numbers that we have now.
I'm truly surprised that so many of the expressed concerns for this country over brexit stem from a desire to live somewhere else.
As was mentioned earlier its hogwash, the vast majority of the voters experience of living abroad is a couple of weeks somewhere in the sun once a year, many never go abroad in their whole life. The number of people that want to live abroad for protracted periods is a small percentage of the population, just very well represented on this forum.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
May's philosophy amounts to a kind of headmistress whack-a-mole management that keeps the Daily Mail headline writers sweet.
I did laugh at the way 'May savages liberal elite' was juxtaposed with 'Cycle lane lunacy! The new blight paralysing Britain.'
A new crackdown on cyclists can't be far off.
Yes, cyclists, just the group that needs 'cracking down' on. Again, as with the foreigner listing, I'd like to see the government try.
If the government starts putting caltrops in cycle lanes, I might have to start reconsidering my opposition to the Conservatives. Round my way they're a bloody nightmare.
If more people got out of their cars and biked instead there would be
a) fewer accidents b) less pollution c) thinner, better looking people d) less sickness e) less pressure on companies through absence f) less congestion g) better mental health h) more sex
Certainly looking at the people in Copenhagen when I was there over the summer these all seemed to be true.
The problem in Britain with cyclists is needing to share space, if there were decent cycle lanes like in Denmark there would be fewer issues. We could learn a lot from our continentalcousins.
Have you been to London lately. It is infested with segregated cycle only lanes.
Very few in Leicester. Good to see more cyclists in London, but nothing like the the numbers in Denmark or the Netherlands.
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
I am pretty sure we didn't! It was nowhere near the numbers that we have now.
Nowhere in the 1970s had anywhere near the number we have now, even places that still need visas!
I noticed that our superiors are happy to concede Spain to the great unwashed but they wouldn't be quite so keen if they got as far as Tuscany or Hungary.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
Nope. You must be a mere slip of a lad, not to remember how difficult and expensive doing anything abroad was in those days, with exchange controls and no cheap flights and no interweb. I'm not saying there were none, but "a load" massively overstates it.
There was nothing difficult about travelling to or living in Spain under Franco or Portugal under the Salazar regime. It was a bit more expensive to get there, perhaps and if they didn't want you they could throw you out but the administration was not much different that it is today. You arrived, filled out a form, paid a small sum of money (plus, in Portugal, an equal sum in the form of a bribe to the official) and you got your residence permit. Easy peasy. Crikey, in the sixties there were small towns wholly owned by Germans along the Spanish Coast.
in the sixties there were small towns wholly owned by Germans along the Spanish Coast.
well they decided Poland in the forties was too cold.
And it cut out competition for the sun loungers, M.r Brooke.
Last time the OH-PA gap was this wide was in 2000--which has some interesting similarities to 2016 in terms of political geography 17 retweets 54 likes
Except ofcourse Virginia and Colorado seem out of reach for Trump this time.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
The EEA/EFTA brigade have utterly miscalculated in thinking they would be in control of events after a vote to Leave.
Not really. Any Leave is better than a Remain vote that would have been seen as endorsing the Project.
That referendum was probably the one and only chance to run away screaming: an important consideration for all voters suspicious of where the EU was heading.
This recession we're in is a more pressing matter though.
What recession? You do realise that just about everyone is forecasting growth in 2016Q3?
You have jumped off the cliff , half way to the rocks below and shout out " Look No broken bones - you were wrong " .
This is the same MarkSenior who lost a gold sovereign betting that the UK wouldn't go into recession in 2008. He isn't exactly a leading light on economic matters.
To be fair to him, though, he did hand over the equivalent value of the sovereign to a dog charity of my choosing. Unlike tim, who welched on his sovereign bet with me....
In public: pious handwringing. In private: Moet & Chandon all round. Quaffed from old-fashioned Champagne saucers, with a selection of delicious and expensive canapes.
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
I am pretty sure we didn't! It was nowhere near the numbers that we have now.
Nowhere in the 1970s had anywhere near the number we have now, even places that still need visas!
Indeed South Devon and the Isle of Wight did not have so many in the seventies as now.
Retiring to the Costas is quite a common aspiration for Working Class Leicester folk. It is often cheaper than Skegness, and a lot nicer.
This recession we're in is a more pressing matter though.
What recession? You do realise that just about everyone is forecasting growth in 2016Q3?
You have jumped off the cliff , half way to the rocks below and shout out " Look No broken bones - you were wrong " .
Mr Senior are you related to the economic forecaster Mark Senior who in 2007/8 said there was no way we were heading into a recession? A forecast that rivals the one denying that Obama could be the next POTUS from our in house advertising director.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Indeed Mr Betting, this is the latest in a long line of strawmen. The only person who promised 100k is Cameron, and he was an idiot. The public would be quite happy this year to see a number smaller than last year. If the general trend was to admit (for residency) people with jobs, who had a chance of integrating well, and didn't have criminal records or proclivities toward blowing things up, the public would no doubt be quite tolerant of considerably larger numbers than 100k.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Well that's a much more nuanced and achievable goal than the current policy.
The EEA/EFTA brigade have utterly miscalculated in thinking they would be in control of events after a vote to Leave.
Not really. Any Leave is better than a Remain vote that would have been seen as endorsing the Project.
That referendum was probably the one and only chance to run away screaming: an important consideration for all voters suspicious of where the EU was heading.
Quite. If I'd thought we'd have a vote in say ten years I'd have swallowed my doubts probably and voted remain with a held nose, but I knew this was the sole chance in my lifetime. Having been denied any vote for decades and specifically reneged on in the case of the Constitution/Lisbon I was painted into a corner. Cameron's crap attempt at renegotiation and his treating us like fools that it was great was the final straw.
I was lost to Remain because those in power have been pig headed about my assumed consent to giving more power to the Project.
In public: pious handwringing. In private: Moet & Chandon all round. Quaffed from old-fashioned Champagne saucers, with a selection of delicious and expensive canapes.
Does anybody think that Corbyn's Labour are bothered with forensic examination of tax legislation, to root out those sneaky loophole before the even sneakier accountants get to apply them? In this regard, Corbyn is truly the Heir to Blair....
As a matter of interest, what odds will people give me on net migration going negative (i.e. more people leaving the country than arriving) in one year between now and 2025?
I'm happy to pay now, so whoever's on the other side of the trade gets the time value of money benefit
The EEA/EFTA brigade have utterly miscalculated in thinking they would be in control of events after a vote to Leave.
Not really. Any Leave is better than a Remain vote that would have been seen as endorsing the Project.
That referendum was probably the one and only chance to run away screaming: an important consideration for all voters suspicious of where the EU was heading.
Indeed.
Given the difficulties we had had in even getting a referendum in the first place, it was clear this was the last chance to Leave.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Indeed Mr Betting, this is the latest in a long line of strawmen. The only person who promised 100k is Cameron, and he was an idiot. The public would be quite happy this year to see a number smaller than last year. If the general trend was to admit (for residency) people with jobs, who had a chance of integrating well, and didn't have criminal records or proclivities toward blowing things up, the public would no doubt be quite tolerant of considerably larger numbers than 100k.
It's not a straw man at all. It's the policy of the current government ( albeit with no target date ) which the new PM has committed herself to.
As a matter of interest, what odds will people give me on net migration going negative (i.e. more people leaving the country than arriving) in one year between now and 2025?
I'm happy to pay now, so whoever's on the other side of the trade gets the time value of money benefit
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Indeed Mr Betting, this is the latest in a long line of strawmen. The only person who promised 100k is Cameron, and he was an idiot. The public would be quite happy this year to see a number smaller than last year. If the general trend was to admit (for residency) people with jobs, who had a chance of integrating well, and didn't have criminal records or proclivities toward blowing things up, the public would no doubt be quite tolerant of considerably larger numbers than 100k.
Cameron chose <100,000 because that number was considered to be a sustainable number to avoid swamping our public services in the long term. Cameron was no idiot but he didn't always ensure that an aspiration was not confused with a promise - which it was not.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Indeed Mr Betting, this is the latest in a long line of strawmen. The only person who promised 100k is Cameron, and he was an idiot. The public would be quite happy this year to see a number smaller than last year. If the general trend was to admit (for residency) people with jobs, who had a chance of integrating well, and didn't have criminal records or proclivities toward blowing things up, the public would no doubt be quite tolerant of considerably larger numbers than 100k.
Cameron and the 100k is a story of unbelieveable stupidity. He made a promise. The voters believed him. His mate and govt strategic planner, Osborne, just ignored the promise. Osborne blocked May when she tried to implement changes and Osborne soft balled the EU negotiations over stricter immigration controls. It all led eventually to a voter backlash which tipped LEAVE's votes ahead of REMAIN. Cameron and Osborne lost their jobs. Partly because Osborne did not do what Cameron wanted to do. Osbore remained Cameron's chum. Yet Cameron blames Gove, Boris and now May for his demise when the truth is it was Osborne's fault. If only Cameron had moved Osborne after the 2012 omnishambles budget and Cameron had kept Osborne away from his meddling.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Well that's a much more nuanced and achievable goal than the current policy.
The current policy is there because Cameron stupidly promised it (twice) and its too political at the moment to be seen easing away from, once the fuss has died down I am sure a more realistic number will be found.
In my experience most of the public, even the BrExit inclined, are pretty tolerate of a fair number of immigrants, providing that they dont take the piss, which in this context means spending their life on benefits, or committing crimes, or threatening the defense of the realm, and making more than a token effort to fit in and rub along. What really pisses people off is people who don't want to make an effort, spend their whole time criticising the lifestyles of people whose families have been here for generations, and make them feel like they are not living in their own country.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
"Retiring to the Costas is quite a common aspiration for Working Class Leicester folk." I wonder why that would be. The remainers have got quite a circular jape working for them there which they depict as a virtuous circle.
Oh come off it, parts of the world, notably the middle east are knee deep in expat service workers from southern europe and asia, the vast majority are treated vastly more shabbily that would ever be contemplated in the UK even under worse plausible government. They come in their droves because there is work there and they want the money.
Edit: Seriously dont get me started on UKBA I have years of tales to tell there, but other places are definitely worse.
She was not in the slightest bit desperate to go to the UK. She thought it would be nice to visit and spend some money. FWIW and also anecdotally, I have found Chinese immigration to be efficient and courteous, which I think a reasonable expectation for the fee you are paying.
It's not just bureaucratic incompetence.The point is, if you have a deliberate policy to make people feel unwelcome, they will take it personally and there will a reputational damage to your country
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Well that's a much more nuanced and achievable goal than the current policy.
The current policy is there because Cameron stupidly promised it (twice) and its too political at the moment to be seen easing away from, once the fuss has died down I am sure a more realistic number will be found.
In my experience most of the public, even the BrExit inclined, are pretty tolerate of a fair number of immigrants, providing that they dont take the piss, which in this context means spending their life on benefits, or committing crimes, or threatening the defense of the realm, and making more than a token effort to fit in and rub along. What really pisses people off is people who don't want to make an effort, spend their whole time criticising the lifestyles of people whose families have been here for generations, and make them feel like they are not living in their own country.
Oh I see. Folk aren't bothered yet the pledge can't be abandoned by the new government because it would be too unpopular with the voters who aren't bothered. Unlike say the tangential matter of the Deficit target that was chucked in the bin immeadiately. OK.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
It's not just bureaucratic incompetence.The point is, if you have a deliberate policy to make people feel unwelcome, they will take it personally and there will a reputational damage to your country
In practice it will probably just accelerate the regional disparities between 'Leaverstan' and the affluent metropolis where both immigrants and natives will feel that they are living under siege.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Indeed Mr Betting, this is the latest in a long line of strawmen. The only person who promised 100k is Cameron, and he was an idiot. The public would be quite happy this year to see a number smaller than last year. If the general trend was to admit (for residency) people with jobs, who had a chance of integrating well, and didn't have criminal records or proclivities toward blowing things up, the public would no doubt be quite tolerant of considerably larger numbers than 100k.
............. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
100k net pa is a figure taking us back to life pre97. Is it built on solid forecasts of trends etc and the answer is No. But it is possible for the EU unskilled migrants to be reduced by 100k pa. But that will probably only start to go down in 2020 etc after we have exited the EU in 2019.
Well that's a much more nuanced and achievable goal than the current policy.
The current policy is there because Cameron stupidly promised it (twice) and its too political at the moment to be seen easing away from, once the fuss has died down I am sure a more realistic number will be found.
In my experience most of the public, even the BrExit inclined, are pretty tolerate of a fair number of immigrants, providing that they dont take the piss, which in this context means spending their life on benefits, or committing crimes, or threatening the defense of the realm, and making more than a token effort to fit in and rub along. What really pisses people off is people who don't want to make an effort, spend their whole time criticising the lifestyles of people whose families have been here for generations, and make them feel like they are not living in their own country.
Oh I see. Folk aren't bothered yet the pledge can't be abandoned by the new government because it would be too unpopular with the voters who aren't bothered. Unlike say the tangential matter of the Deficit target that was chucked in the bin immeadiately. OK.
Uni fees, you were quite happy to dirch them at the time.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be uneconomic at salaries Brits want or to collapse social care for Brexit voting pensioners ) when we've a huge deficit still will be Nil. That leaves us with cutting numbers by being obstructive and unwelcoming in the application process, screwing ex Polytechnics and using lower trend growth to lower demand. That's before push back from Commonwealth citizens/communities who were told Leave meant easier immigration for their uncle. And of course the reciprocal loss of rights for Brits in the EU will lead to modest decreases in emigration and modest increases in Brits returning. Both of which *worsen* the net migration figure. It'll be ground down but it'll take a Thatcher like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
Ah, so youre aspiring to the 6th form?
well that explains it.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Is Dave's infamous "Nudge Unit" still active now that Theresa has taken over?
I now have an image of David Cameron spending his days in a windswept out-of-season seaside town in the southwest, shoving 2p pieces into one of those arcade nudge machines.
"Another 2p in the right spot - and they will all just fall...."
It's not just bureaucratic incompetence.The point is, if you have a deliberate policy to make people feel unwelcome, they will take it personally and there will a reputational damage to your country
My sources tell me that the number of applications for visas through embassies that was rejected last year was up around 20% on the year before, not because of any change in the rules, or the quality of candidates, but because there was (i assume political) pressure being applied to apply the rules as stringently as possible. He presumed this was because the government was under pressure to get the headline figure down and was finding it impossible to manage EU immigration or illegal immigration, so what did that leave.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
Ah, so youre aspiring to the 6th form?
well that explains it.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
"No opposition hurts the government". Well if that's so, please can the government set up a slush fund to build up a parliamentary Labour Party that's against nuclear weapons and British membership of NATO and to start with has about 300 MPs. That would be far more "oppositional" than what there is on the "opposition" benches at the moment.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
Ah, so youre aspiring to the 6th form?
well that explains it.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
Oi - please separate out Durham Union Society tossers from the greater pool of stout yeomen and hearty good fellows who were up in the basted North....
"No opposition hurts the government". Well if that's so, please can the government set up a slush fund to build up a parliamentary Labour Party that's against nuclear weapons and British membership of NATO and to start with has about 300 MPs. That would be far more "oppositional" than what there is on the "opposition" benches at the moment.
Mr Putin runs his own opposition parties. Just saying.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
Ah, so youre aspiring to the 6th form?
well that explains it.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
Oi - please separate out Durham Union Society tossers from the greater pool of stout yeomen and hearty good fellows who were up in the basted North....
Sorry Ive been too indoctrinated by that famous alumnus Mr Meeks
"Chuck" Yeager, well known not just for his aviation brilliance, but also for his hugely abrasive and arrogant manner, says that the British are nasty and arrogant. No irony there then.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
"Retiring to the Costas is quite a common aspiration for Working Class Leicester folk." I wonder why that would be. The remainers have got quite a circular jape working for them there which they depict as a virtuous circle.
Mostly I think it is because it is sunny with cheap booze and a good place for the grandkids to visit. What else do you think might be a factor?
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Sorry Ive been too indoctrinated by that famous alumnus Mr Meeks
Fair point. Three years in a place where the biggest society is the Christian Union. And then the Durham Union Society. Can leave the weaker-willed effected for life...
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
I guess so. Maybe being a LibDem is different. I spent tons of time delivering leaflets and knocking on doors all over town.
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
Students need to stay in the figures. Of the 250 000 who come in each year 20% are still here 5 years later and permenantly settled.
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
I guess so. Maybe being a LibDem is different. I spent tons of time delivering leaflets and knocking on doors all over town.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
I guess so. Maybe being a LibDem is different. I spent tons of time delivering leaflets and knocking on doors all over town.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
I guess so. Maybe being a LibDem is different. I spent tons of time delivering leaflets and knocking on doors all over town.
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
Students need to stay in the figures. Of the 250 000 who come in each year 20% are still here 5 years later and permenantly settled.
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
It really is time to drop the whole net migration figure and look instead at just the immigration figure. People leaving doesn't cause worries about changing cultures or carry any implied terrorism risks.
Or even ditch the figures completely, but make sure that the people that stay are useful productive members of society that are not a burden to the public purse, and that are likely to integrate well, and make sure the public have visibility of crooks and troublemakers being kicked out the country.
"Retiring to the Costas is quite a common aspiration for Working Class Leicester folk." I wonder why that would be. The remainers have got quite a circular jape working for them there which they depict as a virtuous circle.
Mostly I think it is because it is sunny with cheap booze and a good place for the grandkids to visit. What else do you think might be a factor?
Is the booze that cheap these days, Doc? It used to be, as did the fags, but I am not sure it is anymore. That Euro thingy seemed to level up prices, cheapest bars I have found in recent years are in Leeds.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
I guess so. Maybe being a LibDem is different. I spent tons of time delivering leaflets and knocking on doors all over town.
So do Dominos Pizzas
Are you saying theyre more engaged than the LDs ?
Dominos Pizzas have a greater chance of seeing the inside of 10 Downing Street.
When the all night Brexit negotiations are in full swing....
We’ve reached the political equivalent of the chemical state of equilibrium, where reactants in a solution have changed as much as they ever will and have settled into a stable state.
For Labour that means earnest discussions about community activism punctuated by the occasional rally, while giving businesses and wealth creators the cold shoulder. For the Conservatives it means government, influence, the fawning attention of industry. And power.
"Retiring to the Costas is quite a common aspiration for Working Class Leicester folk." I wonder why that would be. The remainers have got quite a circular jape working for them there which they depict as a virtuous circle.
Mostly I think it is because it is sunny with cheap booze and a good place for the grandkids to visit. What else do you think might be a factor?
Is the booze that cheap these days, Doc? It used to be, as did the fags, but I am not sure it is anymore. That Euro thingy seemed to level up prices, cheapest bars I have found in recent years are in Leeds.
Sure, with the Brexit devaluation it is not so cheap as it once was, but still cheaper than here. With food also cheaper, no heating bills and cheap Ryanair flights retiring abroad is as affordable as retiring in the UK, at least while we are in the EU. It is not just a Middle Class aspiration.
Indeed the people that I know who never go abroad are the poorly paid (my NHS clinic coordinator) and the very wealthy (I have some wealthy friends who only ever holiday in Cornwall, Scilly or the Wight).
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
I've never heard anyone refer to "Oxbridge" at either Oxford or Cambridge.
Yes, the students dont actually mix that much with the population
sad really
Being involved in politics is by far the most common way to be an exception.
Hmm
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
I guess so. Maybe being a LibDem is different. I spent tons of time delivering leaflets and knocking on doors all over town.
So do Dominos Pizzas
Are you saying theyre more engaged than the LDs ?
Dominos Pizzas have a greater chance of seeing the inside of 10 Downing Street.
When the all night Brexit negotiations are in full swing....
It's not just bureaucratic incompetence.The point is, if you have a deliberate policy to make people feel unwelcome, they will take it personally and there will a reputational damage to your country
My sources tell me that the number of applications for visas through embassies that was rejected last year was up around 20% on the year before, not because of any change in the rules, or the quality of candidates, but because there was (i assume political) pressure being applied to apply the rules as stringently as possible. He presumed this was because the government was under pressure to get the headline figure down and was finding it impossible to manage EU immigration or illegal immigration, so what did that leave.
It's remarkable the discretion levels in the system - in some parts of the world, the immigration rules are strictly applied. In others, not so much.
My favourite story about the immigration comedy is still the one about the Home Office having problems with the Zimbabwean local staff at the consulate/embassy not being racist.
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
Students need to stay in the figures. Of the 250 000 who come in each year 20% are still here 5 years later and permenantly settled.
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
It really is time to drop the whole net migration figure and look instead at just the immigration figure. People leaving doesn't cause worries about changing cultures or carry any implied terrorism risks.
Or even ditch the figures completely, but make sure that the people that stay are useful productive members of society that are not a burden to the public purse, and that are likely to integrate well, and make sure the public have visibility of crooks and troublemakers being kicked out the country.
Ahh! The mobile goalposts. I wondered when they might appear.
But what about all the pressure on housing and schools? Or are you now a Corbynite?
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
Students need to stay in the figures. Of the 250 000 who come in each year 20% are still here 5 years later and permenantly settled.
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
That can't be right. If out of 250,000 each year 50,000 are still here happily settled and presumably welcome after five years then the immigration figures should show that 50k not the 200k who went away again; taking with them, hopefully, happy memories, knowledge and a love of the UK and leaving behind huge wodges of cash..
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
Students need to stay in the figures. Of the 250 000 who come in each year 20% are still here 5 years later and permenantly settled.
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
That can't be right. If out of 250,000 each year 50,000 are still here happily settled and presumably welcome after five years then the immigration figures should show that 50k not the 200k who went away again; taking with them, hopefully, happy memories, knowledge and a love of the UK and leaving behind huge wodges of cash..
Those are the figures from Migrationwatch, so 50 000 net migrants per year came initially on student visas.
Some countries are much more likely to return than others. No surprises that it is MENA and South Asian students most likely not to return (and also often bring family on accompanying visas), while others such as Chinese have a re-migration rate over 95%.
It's an interesting one. As most of our politicians seem unaware of what the Single Market is or what leaving it actually means, I would not expect voters to be that switched on. Do pensioners, for example, really believe that they should no longer have the automatic right to retire to Spain and to be treated for free by the Spanish healthcare system? Do they believe that pensioners currently retired out there should lose that free access?
Pretty sure we had a load of pensioners retired out there before 1973...
I am pretty sure we didn't! It was nowhere near the numbers that we have now.
You are right - apart from the very rich. Nowadays the typical Spanish expat is way more numerous and a lot less well off, although many are 'comfortable. Those who are keenest to return to blighty - are the elderly and infirm who lack language skills and the younger couples worried about educating their children abroad and many who don't like the much lower wage levels.
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Mr. Robert, I would be glad to take you up on your bet, but I doubt if I shall be around to collect (or pay out), which rather ruins the point.
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
Students need to stay in the figures. Of the 250 000 who come in each year 20% are still here 5 years later and permenantly settled.
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
It really is time to drop the whole net migration figure and look instead at just the immigration figure. People leaving doesn't cause worries about changing cultures or carry any implied terrorism risks.
Or even ditch the figures completely, but make sure that the people that stay are useful productive members of society that are not a burden to the public purse, and that are likely to integrate well, and make sure the public have visibility of crooks and troublemakers being kicked out the country.
Ahh! The mobile goalposts. I wondered when they might appear.
But what about all the pressure on housing and schools? Or are you now a Corbynite?
My goalposts are not moving at all. I have always said I am a Hannanite, my point and his about immigration has never been about numbers, its been that is should be under the control of the sovereign British people, which includes the ability to bar entry to undesirables and kick out criminals and troublemakers.
I am for the equal opportunities for all immigrants so long as they apply lawfully, are productive members of society, and try hard to fit in. How could I be anything else, I have spend quite a lot of my time in the last decade helping various Asians apply for visa's to the UK.
@FF43 Sadly I think you are right. The number of homeless Romanians who end up on Channel 5 programmes is far too small to even scratch the net migration targets. When push comes to shove the appetite to tell employers to take their low wage work overseas ( as it will be like will and significant socio economic dislocation to get it under 100K pa. I just don't see it myself.
Pure nonsense
We cut net migration from last year's 390k to under 100K but stoping 290K pa coming in. The ' pure nonsense ' brigade like you are obsessed with it being easy. Yet I'm not reading the sweeping categories of folk currently coming to work or study who are going to be eliminated.
No the pure nonsense bit is the endless scaremongering and sour grapes re Brexit.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
Oh I see. You weren't referring to anything I was actually arguing in that post. It was just a general unfocused dismal. Dismiss away.
were you arguing anything in the post ?
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
No. It was an argument made in response to a specific exchange I was having with several people. It's a free forum so you can respond with ' pure nonsense ' if you wish but I will call you out for your lack of 6th form debating skills.
Ah, so youre aspiring to the 6th form?
well that explains it.
I just know " Pure Nonsense " followed by changing the subject when challenged wouldn't have got you very far at the Durham Union Society. So I lowered the bar for you to the 6th Form debating society at my bog standard comp.
Oh gawd - Durham
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
Oi - please separate out Durham Union Society tossers from the greater pool of stout yeomen and hearty good fellows who were up in the basted North....
Indeed. Three years in the finest city in England.
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
Could you repeat the terms of the bet?
Would you do odds on net immigration being less than 100 000 at any point in this Parliament, calculated on present terms.
Howabout 200 000?
The one thing we know about government is that, no sooner does an indicator become the focus of some attention, they will be all over it fiddling about with how it's calculated, such that comparisons with past statistics becomes more and more difficult. A bet like yours really needs an independent arbiter whose decision is final!
Comments
"Mr Sants joined the FSA in a senior position in 2004 and took over as chief executive in July 2007, just weeks before the run on Northern Rock that heralded the banking crisis.
MPs on the Commons Treasury committee accused him of being ‘asleep at the wheel’ as the crisis took hold, although he later insisted the run on the bank could have been prevented if ministers and the Bank of England had followed his advice.
Mr Sants also approved the Royal Bank of Scotland’s disastrous takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro, which left the Scottish bank needing a £45billion bailout from the taxpayer in 2008."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2254453/Former-FSA-head-Hector-Sants-accused-asleep-wheel-run-financial-crash-Sir.html#ixzz4MEcJa96B
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http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-hard-brexit-has-widespread-support-2016-10
Edit: Seriously dont get me started on UKBA I have years of tales to tell there, but other places are definitely worse.
It's liberalism versus nationalism. Labour policy, if there is one, is not too far off Charlie Kennedy's left wing Lib Dems; the Tories have gone full UKIP. The third and fourth parties (shut up SNP) have had their clothes stolen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eeyore
He's gone all in on a rustbelt strategy and it 's failing.
well they decided Poland in the forties was too cold.
Last time the OH-PA gap was this wide was in 2000--which has some interesting similarities to 2016 in terms of political geography
17 retweets 54 likes
Except ofcourse Virginia and Colorado seem out of reach for Trump this time.
To be fair to him, though, he did hand over the equivalent value of the sovereign to a dog charity of my choosing. Unlike tim, who welched on his sovereign bet with me....
Retiring to the Costas is quite a common aspiration for Working Class Leicester folk. It is often cheaper than Skegness, and a lot nicer.
We'll have immigration, there wont be a stop, lots of peoiple wont get what they want, but lots of others will accept the compromises. The UK wont come to a stop nor will the EU. Life will just be a bit different but not the disaster you hope for.
I was lost to Remain because those in power have been pig headed about my assumed consent to giving more power to the Project.
I'm happy to pay now, so whoever's on the other side of the trade gets the time value of money benefit
Given the difficulties we had had in even getting a referendum in the first place, it was clear this was the last chance to Leave.
Clinton 1.365
Sanders 205
Biden 225
Kaine 695
Trump 4.05
Pence 385
Ryan 510
Implied probability of neither Clinton nor Trump: 2.0%.
In my experience most of the public, even the BrExit inclined, are pretty tolerate of a fair number of immigrants, providing that they dont take the piss, which in this context means spending their life on benefits, or committing crimes, or threatening the defense of the realm, and making more than a token effort to fit in and rub along. What really pisses people off is people who don't want to make an effort, spend their whole time criticising the lifestyles of people whose families have been here for generations, and make them feel like they are not living in their own country.
it looked like just the standard remainer rant. Maybe brush up your posting Mr Submarine
It's not just bureaucratic incompetence.The point is, if you have a deliberate policy to make people feel unwelcome, they will take it personally and there will a reputational damage to your country
well that explains it.
Read the headline on the front page, then the section on immigration on the second page, then section 5 on the third page
How about net immigration to turn negative before the end of 2020? (For a full year.)
"Another 2p in the right spot - and they will all just fall...."
for the people who couldnt make Oxbridge but still think they did
"Chuck" Yeager, well known not just for his aviation brilliance, but also for his hugely abrasive and arrogant manner, says that the British are nasty and arrogant. No irony there then.
sad really
I think I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. The hangover from family reunions, the disparity between the minimum wages and the quality of English universities are quite enough to keep the number of people seeking entrance higher than the number of people off to seek their fortune abroad for many years yet.
Of course if Students were reclassified from the immigration statistics, and the UK actually regained the power to kick people out then the terms of the bet would change in your favour.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/in-indiana-police-raid-a-democratic-voter-registration-office
My guess is trump will win 90%+ of the police vote in the red states.
Not that we'll ever know of course.
I dont really recall that much involvement by Eton Dave round the estates of Blackbird leys.
Maybe Im getting old
If equal numbers came and went, by definition there would be no net effect on migration (assuming no major change in student population).
Are you saying theyre more engaged than the LDs ?
Or even ditch the figures completely, but make sure that the people that stay are useful productive members of society that are not a burden to the public purse, and that are likely to integrate well, and make sure the public have visibility of crooks and troublemakers being kicked out the country.
When the all night Brexit negotiations are in full swing....
We’ve reached the political equivalent of the chemical state of equilibrium, where reactants in a solution have changed as much as they ever will and have settled into a stable state.
For Labour that means earnest discussions about community activism punctuated by the occasional rally, while giving businesses and wealth creators the cold shoulder. For the Conservatives it means government, influence, the fawning attention of industry. And power.
Just like Labour used to have.
Ouch!
Indeed the people that I know who never go abroad are the poorly paid (my NHS clinic coordinator) and the very wealthy (I have some wealthy friends who only ever holiday in Cornwall, Scilly or the Wight).
My favourite story about the immigration comedy is still the one about the Home Office having problems with the Zimbabwean local staff at the consulate/embassy not being racist.
But what about all the pressure on housing and schools? Or are you now a Corbynite?
Would you do odds on net immigration being less than 100 000 at any point in this Parliament, calculated on present terms.
Howabout 200 000?
Some countries are much more likely to return than others. No surprises that it is MENA and South Asian students most likely not to return (and also often bring family on accompanying visas), while others such as Chinese have a re-migration rate over 95%.
I am for the equal opportunities for all immigrants so long as they apply lawfully, are productive members of society, and try hard to fit in. How could I be anything else, I have spend quite a lot of my time in the last decade helping various Asians apply for visa's to the UK.
https://www.facebook.com/LBC/videos/10154347212196558/
Castle
1974 - 77