politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This Have I Got News For You trailer accurately sums up the

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Well, it is possible that the political terms of trade within Europe change during the two years' or so negotiation.
Freedom of movement as an absolute principle could conceivably be gone - one need only look at public debate in Hungary and France to see that's possible - which would significantly ease May's task.

French prez election is crucial. If Sarko wins, I reckon we could see a major offer from the EU. It suits them. As you say, the Hungarian vote proves that the era of FoM and Schengen (as we knew it) is over. Politicians across the EU are taking note.

If the old Federalist Juppe wins (and he is favourite) May has a significantly harder task.

Had Cameron been smarter, his renegotiation would still be going on, and his interlocutors would be in a far more uncomfortable position than when they shafted him (with his almost-collaboration, it has to be said).

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarkHopkins said:

Moses_ said:

BBC reporting it as "Hungary referendum rejects EU mandatory migrant plan"

Also it looks like the Hungarians are going to implement the rejection.

"Right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Hungarians to reject the EU scheme, describing it as a threat to Europe's security and way of life.
He described the result as "overwhelming" and said the EU "cannot force" Hungary to accept migrants. He urged EU decision makers to take note of the referendum."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37528325

*waits for EU to pass law banning referendums*

What was that about the EU keeping the peace. Hungary will not accept the migrants and any threats will not work

Unless I've missed something, no-one is threatening Hungary with war.

The EU is the worst version of Europe, apart from all the other Europes that have been tried over the years.

MarkHopkins said:

Moses_ said:

BBC reporting it as "Hungary referendum rejects EU mandatory migrant plan"

Also it looks like the Hungarians are going to implement the rejection.

"Right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Hungarians to reject the EU scheme, describing it as a threat to Europe's security and way of life.
He described the result as "overwhelming" and said the EU "cannot force" Hungary to accept migrants. He urged EU decision makers to take note of the referendum."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37528325

*waits for EU to pass law banning referendums*

Well they can always just ignore the first one...... Interesting theory on why second referenda results change.

"On three occasions – Denmark on the Maastricht Treaty, Ireland on the Nice Treaty and Ireland again on the Lisbon Treaty – voters have initially rejected an EU treaty only to vote in favour of it in a second referendum. Based on research conducted in Denmark and Ireland, Ece Özlem Atikcan assesses the reasons why voters changed their minds in each case.

She illustrates that ‘Yes’ campaigners in both states learned from previous referendums and developed an approach that reframed the issue by emphasising concessions gained from the EU and the risks of rejecting a treaty for a second time."

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

Looks like the US will win the Ryder Cup

FrancisUrquhart said:

God this ex bbc producer on Louis thereoux programme is worrying.

Does it add anything to what we already knew?

AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

God this ex bbc producer on Louis thereoux programme is worrying.

Does it add anything to what we already knew?

No no. It was the opposite. She basically said I didn't see anything (despite being long time producer for his programmes) & it was time of sex, drugs & rock n roll... thereoux then pointed out the audience was all kids....

SeanT said:

Moses_ said:

MarkHopkins said:

Moses_ said:

BBC reporting it as "Hungary referendum rejects EU mandatory migrant plan"

Also it looks like the Hungarians are going to implement the rejection.

"Right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Hungarians to reject the EU scheme, describing it as a threat to Europe's security and way of life.
He described the result as "overwhelming" and said the EU "cannot force" Hungary to accept migrants. He urged EU decision makers to take note of the referendum."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37528325

*waits for EU to pass law banning referendums*

Well they can always just ignore the first one...... Interesting theory on why second referenda results change.

"On three occasions – Denmark on the Maastricht Treaty, Ireland on the Nice Treaty and Ireland again on the Lisbon Treaty – voters have initially rejected an EU treaty only to vote in favour of it in a second referendum. Based on research conducted in Denmark and Ireland, Ece Özlem Atikcan assesses the reasons why voters changed their minds in each case.

She illustrates that ‘Yes’ campaigners in both states learned from previous referendums and developed an approach that reframed the issue by emphasising concessions gained from the EU and the risks of rejecting a treaty for a second time."

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

The vote-til-you-get-it-right approach was certainly interesting, from the EU, but I prefer their later work, in France and the Netherlands, over the Constitution, where it was vote-and-then-we-will-completely-ignore-you, and then-simply-impose-what-we-want-anyway

The EU is utterly disgusting. A noisome fraud. If excrement could excrete, the excreta would resemble the EU.

Surely in every single case it's the national government which ignored the result, not the EU as such.

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A friend of mine just returned from visiting family in India. Nuclear war there is a real possibility.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1883306/pakistan-threatens-to-destroy-india-with-nuclear-bomb-as-atomic-enemies-edge-to-the-brink-of-war/

Though the Indian counterstrike would pretty much turn Pakistan into molten glass..

"We have not made atomic device to display in a showcase."

Partition working well I see. Next test series should be lively.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/782686453511942145

well done westy, 2 up with 3 to go but manage to lose against one of their weakest players (a rookie no less) and lose the last 3 holes, the last with a bogey to ensure its the point you lose that is the winning point...

probably be our next ryder captain...

PlatoSaid said:

Hillary and her tin ear

While #Clinton knocks #Sanders fans as 'basement dwellers' -- Chelsea lives in $10M apartment https://t.co/9CdexjWCak https://t.co/91zoDRoP2R

Have you listen to or read the transcript yet?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

well done westy, 2 up with 3 to go but manage to lose against one of their weakest players (a rookie no less) and lose the last 3 holes, the last with a bogey to ensure its the point you lose that is the winning point...

probably be our next ryder captain...

So long as we don't blame Danny Willlet's brother, who was spot on about the American crowds.

The crowds have been a disgrace.

phil vs Sergio is one of the greatest ever matches.

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
North Carolina Poll Average: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton. https://t.co/gXudItK8na

Check the fieldwork dates....

I have a tenner on Hilary in North Carolina based on the early postal vote returns. I know I've advised caution in interpreting them but for the Republican response rate to be down on 2012 is astonishing.

Alistair said:

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
North Carolina Poll Average: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton. https://t.co/gXudItK8na

Check the fieldwork dates....

I have a tenner on Hilary in North Carolina based on the early postal vote returns. I know I've advised caution in interpreting them but for the Republican response rate to be down on 2012 is astonishing.

Aren't those totals on the order of ~100s of votes? Compared to an electorate of millions...

geoffw said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

A depreciating £ is *good* for the economy.

Unfortunately, it is bad for people who are paid in GBP, or whose life savings are in GBP, or who buy things that are imported from outside the UK, or who make things from raw materials from outside the UK. I think that's everybody on this board except Tyson.

thank god for our continental European team-mates today, if it was still GB&I then we'd have scored 0 in the singles...

in fact the only players to lose today were from GB&I, perhaps they should drop us from the European team in future Ryder Cups what with Brexit and all

Team USA wags are pretty stunning.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

well done westy, 2 up with 3 to go but manage to lose against one of their weakest players (a rookie no less) and lose the last 3 holes, the last with a bogey to ensure its the point you lose that is the winning point...

probably be our next ryder captain...

So long as we don't blame Danny Willlet's brother, who was spot on about the American crowds.

he was ... he might have done better than Danny mind you

At least Spurs won.

I'm gonna back them for the title.

at 20-1 too?

619 said:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/298894-wikileaks-cancels-tuesday-announcement-over-security

no wikileaks announcement this week it seems

Have I read that right? Whether or not they make the announcement depends on the security of Assange's balcony?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Louis thereoux programme on saville is rather disappointing. I don't think we have learned anything new.

Don't think it was supposed to bring anything new to the party, rather it was meant to "atone" for not nailing him first time around by giving a voice to his victims...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

They have form.....

"A number of stories surfaced over the weekend of isolated incidents involving fans shouting abuse and making insulting comments to the European team during matches. During the fourballs on Saturday afternoon, one fan made an obscene comment relating to the late Seve Ballesteros which was clearly audible to television viewers"

Thing is that was in 2012.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/rydercup/9577684/Ryder-Cup-2012-Investigation-after-American-fans-abuse-Europes-players-wives-and-late-captain-Seve-Ballesteros.html

I seem to recollect during one competition the US WAGS ran across the green in high heels to congratulate their team before the game had finished and further puts were to be made.

Scott_P said:

@Coral: Top USA performers this #RyderCup

1) Patrick Reed
2) Dustin Johnson
3) Zach Johnson
4) Lee Westwood
5) Phil Mickleson.

I'd have said Lee was 3rd. Anyone who watched him totally choke when given a chance to win the Masters this year KNEW he's not got it now sadly.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

well done westy, 2 up with 3 to go but manage to lose against one of their weakest players (a rookie no less) and lose the last 3 holes, the last with a bogey to ensure its the point you lose that is the winning point...

probably be our next ryder captain...

So long as we don't blame Danny Willlet's brother, who was spot on about the American crowds.

he was ... he might have done better than Danny mind you

At least Spurs won.

I'm gonna back them for the title.

at 20-1 too?

Alas no, a mere 9/1

I bottled out anyway this morning... it was obviously huge 'value' if we were going to put on a performance but then again £ would be the least of my thoughts if Spurs did win it!!!!!

I bottled out on laying Man City a few weeks ago.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Nick Herbert has impeccable Eurosceptic credentials from his time as Chief Executive of Business for Sterling.

I believe he's called Boris, David Davis, and Liam Fox the three blind mice

They're more like the Marx Brothers: Groucho, Chico and Harpo.

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Nick Herbert has impeccable Eurosceptic credentials from his time as Chief Executive of Business for Sterling.

I believe he's called Boris, David Davis, and Liam Fox the three blind mice

They're more like the Marx Brothers: Groucho, Chico and Harpo.

Do you want it hard or soft? In earlier days such a question at the Conservative party conference would probably have been scandalous. Today it is entirely innocent, the question du jour. Does Britain sever its relationship with Europe with one drop of the guillotine’s blade, the “hard Brexit” favoured by the right? Or does it attempt to negotiate a new deal with the EU to preserve privileged access to the single market?....

...The jury is out on the new government structure to deliver our departure from the EU. The so-called “three Brexiteers” have so far rather more resembled three blind mice, stumbling around the world’s capitals with inconsistent messages, united only in their assurance that it will be all right on the night.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/02/hard-brexit-eu-trade-deal

May's promise to invoke Article 50 by the end of March means the process will be complete by the next general election and a new repeal of the European Communities Act prevents legal challenges but ensures the UK will enshrine EU law as is in UK law and then repeal as needed

Hungary looks to have voted against migrant quotas but with turnout below the 50% threshold

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Nick Herbert has impeccable Eurosceptic credentials from his time as Chief Executive of Business for Sterling.

I believe he's called Boris, David Davis, and Liam Fox the three blind mice

They're more like the Marx Brothers: Groucho, Chico and Harpo.

Do you want it hard or soft? In earlier days such a question at the Conservative party conference would probably have been scandalous. Today it is entirely innocent, the question du jour. Does Britain sever its relationship with Europe with one drop of the guillotine’s blade, the “hard Brexit” favoured by the right? Or does it attempt to negotiate a new deal with the EU to preserve privileged access to the single market?....

...The jury is out on the new government structure to deliver our departure from the EU. The so-called “three Brexiteers” have so far rather more resembled three blind mice, stumbling around the world’s capitals with inconsistent messages, united only in their assurance that it will be all right on the night.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/02/hard-brexit-eu-trade-deal

Any Tory writing in the Guardian to attack their own Government, from the Left, should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
North Carolina Poll Average: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton. https://t.co/gXudItK8na

Check the fieldwork dates....

I have a tenner on Hilary in North Carolina based on the early postal vote returns. I know I've advised caution in interpreting them but for the Republican response rate to be down on 2012 is astonishing.

Aren't those totals on the order of ~100s of votes? Compared to an electorate of millions...

13000 votes returned so far. So tiny by total figures but it speaks to me about lack of GOTV.

Total electorate is about 4.4 million.

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Nick Herbert has impeccable Eurosceptic credentials from his time as Chief Executive of Business for Sterling.

I believe he's called Boris, David Davis, and Liam Fox the three blind mice

They're more like the Marx Brothers: Groucho, Chico and Harpo.

For all the sniping it seems Davis, Boris and Fox (along with Theresa) are doing quite well?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Doesn't the Treaty of Rome date from the 1950s?

It's from the "good" 1950s - 1950s Britain is from the "bad" 1950s. Totally different decade.

Malmesbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Doesn't the Treaty of Rome date from the 1950s?

It's from the "good" 1950s - 1950s Britain is from the "bad" 1950s. Totally different decade.

You know what else about the 50s was good?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:United_Kingdom_general_election_1955_in_Scotland.svg

williamglenn said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Doesn't the Treaty of Rome date from the 1950s?

Yes and at the time Britain was still coming to terms with the loss of empire while continental Europe was forging ahead building the future. Plus ca change...

So the EU (or previous names for it) is an outdated 1950s throwback?

Practically, I'm not sure whether the hard v soft Brexit debate really can come to a head in Parliament.

Parliament's obligations here seem to be a) to endorse the repeal of the ECA (which needs to be done anyway, no matter what the final deal is) and b) to ratify the eventual deal negotiated by the government. Now, after 2 years of debate and discussions, when the deal is laid on the table it appears to me that the choice either comes down to voting to endorse what the government had negotiated or otherwise to reject it. If the deal is rejected by parliament, as the Article 50 process has come to its end, a vote to reject is essentially a vote tantamount to a complete withdrawal I.e a vote for the 'hardest' Brexit.

So, doesn't it in fact come down to the government's deal vs no deal and immediate unconditional withdrawal?

The ball is essentially in the government's court here, whatever negotiating stance they take. Take it or leave it, basically. This does seem to be the reality of the constitutional position. The position of MPs here, at this stage, short of influencing government policy in the negotiations, isn't really the strongest.

Murder trial against OJ Simpson begins in LA #LastTimeTrumpPaidTaxes

Sunil_Prasannan said:

williamglenn said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/782688844319690752

Of course, it's just the press inventing this idea of Tory splits.

Doesn't the Treaty of Rome date from the 1950s?

Yes and at the time Britain was still coming to terms with the loss of empire while continental Europe was forging ahead building the future. Plus ca change...

So the EU (or previous names for it) is an outdated 1950s throwback?

I would argue that the reason the EU is in trouble is that it is an Imperial Dream. Driven (at first) by France leveraging the economic power of West Germany to give her (France) the global role that her statesmen believed her due.

The problem is that it is turning out to be the Holy Roman Empire part II.....

I hate to interrupt WankingAboutBrexit.com with something so non-U as a question about US politics, but some of you may have heard of Allan Lichtman and his "13 Keys" model. He's made a prediction that Trump will win[1]. He exhibits a characteristic that too many modellers exhibit: he rows back on the prediction, but there y'go. Anyhoo, DYOR

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

Well, well, the Leave result in the referendum means Brexit. Brexit means Brexit, and therefore an end to free movement and therefore an end to full access to the Single Market. Who'd a thunk it?

FF43 said:

Speedy said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

I think Orban will still refuse to accept migrants given that 44% of all Hungarians voted against migrants, 1% are in favour of migrants, and 55% didn't bother to express their opinion on this.

My interpretation is that 55% of Hungarians hate their prime minister more than they dislike immigrants.

I they hadn't boycotted do you seriously think the referendum would have got close to 100% turnout? That 55% includes both boycotters and apathetics.

surbiton said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

Speedy said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

I think Orban will still refuse to accept migrants given that 44% of all Hungarians voted against migrants, 1% are in favour of migrants, and 55% didn't bother to express their opinion on this.

My interpretation is that 55% of Hungarians hate their prime minister more than they dislike immigrants.

I they hadn't boycotted do you seriously think the referendum would have got close to 100% turnout? That 55% includes both boycotters and apathetics.

Makes FA difference. The rule says 50% turnout and the Racists did not get it.

44% of Hungarians are racists? Or maybe they mis-voted on this occasion.

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Well, well, the Leave result in the referendum means Brexit. Brexit means Brexit, and therefore an end to free movement and therefore an end to full access to the Single Market. Who'd a thunk it?

Given the ramifications of the decision will begin to be felt long before March 2019, don't be too sure that the next election is in the bag for the Tories. I work in Manufacturing and there is zero investment going on now. The reduced GDP growth is being run by consumption and it would take too long for sentiment to change.

I'm sure you'll do your bit to ensure it does

RobD said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

Speedy said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

I think Orban will still refuse to accept migrants given that 44% of all Hungarians voted against migrants, 1% are in favour of migrants, and 55% didn't bother to express their opinion on this.

My interpretation is that 55% of Hungarians hate their prime minister more than they dislike immigrants.

I they hadn't boycotted do you seriously think the referendum would have got close to 100% turnout? That 55% includes both boycotters and apathetics.

Makes FA difference. The rule says 50% turnout and the Racists did not get it.

Actually I was refusing FF43's claim that 55% of Hungarians hate the PM more than they dislike immigrants.

OK, simplification on the percentages, but the sentiment was there, I am sure. More precisely a proportion of the electorate despise Orban and recognise the referendum for the gesture politics that it is, and that that proportion was big enough to ensure the turnout qualification wasn't met despite the Russian style media control in that country and so Orban lost his referendum.