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Ishmael_X

!

IanB2

Second like Farron

Jonathan

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Gardenwalker

HIGNFY has really gone downhill.
Anyway, why bother with satire when the real stuff is so risible.

Ishmael_X

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Much, much stranger if Trump gets in. Which doesn't look more unlikely than much of what has happened this year.

Jonathan

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

Gardenwalker

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

If this is really May's 1981 moment, perhaps the Argies will do her a favour and invade, in a bit.

williamglenn

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

If there's one thing everyone agrees on in this world of unexpected events, it's that it's utterly inconceivable that the main opposition party could close a gap of 9% in the polls. Absolutely unthinkable and could never happen in a million years...

Ishmael_X

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

"Something happens" - major terrorist incident for which government is actually to blame - not just in an "it happened on their watch" sense - would do it. Esp if the blame lay with actions of the Home Office during May's tenure.

Omnium

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

'Aliens' would be great. I'd prefer to be killed by them than Millwall fans.

TOPPING

Ishmael_X said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

"Something happens" - major terrorist incident for which government is actually to blame - not just in an "it happened on their watch" sense - would do it. Esp if the blame lay with actions of the Home Office during May's tenure.

It's when no one can see any reason whatsoever why the status quo should change..that it changes.

TheScreamingEagles

Ishmael_X said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

"Something happens" - major terrorist incident for which government is actually to blame - not just in an "it happened on their watch" sense - would do it. Esp if the blame lay with actions of the Home Office during May's tenure.

A few weeks ago I chatted to a Labour councillor about that scenario (well the Madrid attacks kinda situation) which could be pinned on Theresa May.

The Labour councillor wryly observed

'But you just know that Corbyn & McDonnell will have met the terrorists beforehand and that gets Theresa off the hook'

Jonathan

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

Indigo

Ishmael_X said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

"Something happens" - major terrorist incident for which government is actually to blame - not just in an "it happened on their watch" sense - would do it. Esp if the blame lay with actions of the Home Office during May's tenure.

Come off it... I mean UK Border Force, Immigration Service, Passport Office... Not the remotest chance of a f*ck up there... erm!

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_X said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Wondering if the next twelve months could be even stranger. Things have not settled yet.

Aliens? War? Asteroid impact?

Actually, I shouldn't joke. War is not inconceivable.

A50 triggered in March. Snap General Election called for May. Something happens in the campaign. Corbyn wins surprise victory.

"Something happens" - major terrorist incident for which government is actually to blame - not just in an "it happened on their watch" sense - would do it. Esp if the blame lay with actions of the Home Office during May's tenure.

A few weeks ago I chatted to a Labour councillor about that scenario (well the Madrid attacks kinda situation) which could be pinned on Theresa May.

The Labour councillor wryly observed

'But you just know that Corbyn & McDonnell will have met the terrorists beforehand and that gets Theresa off the hook'

Ouch!

IanB2

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

Tim_B

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

Scrapheap_as_was

In the golf we were told 6 rookies were the weakness in our team, kaymer and Westwood as two experienced picks by Clarke have shown it wasn't so much their fault.

Big_G_NorthWales

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Sandpit

Does anyone know how accurate this is: British protestors travelling to Calais to OPPOSE France closing the camps..?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3818038/Police-Calais-use-tear-gas-water-cannons-violent-clashes-BRITISH-protesters-travelled-Jungle-oppose-migrant-camp-s-closure.html

IanB2

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

The pre trading doesn't appear to be expecting anything dramatic

williamglenn

Tim_B said:

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

Just playing devil's advocate, but one way it might not be is if the Clinton campaign thinks, "It's just so easy to bait him!" and doubles down which might run the risk dragging the campaign down to his level and then being beaten by experience in the same way that most of his Republican rivals did eventually.

Jonathan

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Right now May shouldn't want a game changer. She is winning. She is better going now, before she pisses some people off with whatever fudges she inevitably has to come up with.

frpenkridge

OK, the aliens may eat a few of us and the democratic deficit may be large, but we would be mad to give up the security of a place in the Galactic Union.

Big_G_NorthWales

Tim_B said:

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

I listened live to the debate and it was a car crash for both of them. Hilary did come out of it better but is this the best the US can do. John Kerry would leave them both standing

I really do fear for the next debate if Trump is true to his word and targets Bill Clinton /Monica Lewinsky and Hilary's private relationships. Just how low can they go

RobD

frpenkridge said:

OK, the aliens may eat a few of us and the democratic deficit may be large, but we would be mad to give up the security of a place in the Galactic Union.

The Galactic Senate, surely?

Sandpit

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Yes, although 2019 might be possible under the new boundaries if they're finalised as expected in Autumn 2018.

In the meantime, as others here have suggested, the effective majority is bigger than 12 and the Commons should be able to pass most conceivable legislation. I'm expecting a lot more Tory Peers to be appointed though, if Their Lordships try and interfere too much with the government's business.

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sandpit said:

Does anyone know how accurate this is: British protestors travelling to Calais to OPPOSE France closing the camps..?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3818038/Police-Calais-use-tear-gas-water-cannons-violent-clashes-BRITISH-protesters-travelled-Jungle-oppose-migrant-camp-s-closure.html

Nothing would surprise me about Calais

Sandpit

Tim_B said:

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

There was a good Washington Post article linked earlier by someone here, about how the comedy shows are reacting, whether they should now go all out to support Hillary or continue to lampoon them both. Certainly SNL continued the tradition of giving both candidates both barrels last night, but the late night weekday shows are definitely moving towards more one-sided coverage in the run up to the election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-snl-take-down-donald-trump-is-it-going-to-try/2016/09/30/598e2a04-868f-11e6-a3ef-f35afb41797f_story.html

matt

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Not bad for the expats not being paid in GBP. A disproportionate number of active posters here it sometimes appears.

ThomasNashe

Scrapheap_as_was said:

In the golf we were told 6 rookies were the weakness in our team, kaymer and Westwood as two experienced picks by Clarke have shown it wasn't so much their fault.

Anything happen in the football today?

Gardenwalker

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I pray you're right.
But we're now reduced to relying on the EU's canniness, whereas the whole Brexit argument is based on what a bunch of fucktards our neighbours are.

Edit: the EU's ability to fudge a workable deal. I realise it was May you were calling canny.

I'm a little drunk - on French spirits.

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Big_G_NorthWales

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Right now May shouldn't want a game changer. She is winning. She is better going now, before she pisses some people off with whatever fudges she inevitably has to come up with.

Just listen to her. She is a politician with integrity and in ruling out a GE before 2020 today in the media that is the end of the story. The only way she would call an election would be if the Great Repeal Act was defeated, but that is not going to happen before 2018

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Sandpit said:

Does anyone know how accurate this is: British protestors travelling to Calais to OPPOSE France closing the camps..?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3818038/Police-Calais-use-tear-gas-water-cannons-violent-clashes-BRITISH-protesters-travelled-Jungle-oppose-migrant-camp-s-closure.html

There have been previous reports of lefty anarchists traveling from the uk to Calais to cause trouble.

geoffw

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

A depreciating £ is *good* for the economy.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

They probably wont. The question should be can the shortfall be made up elsewhere?

williamglenn

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

The saddest thing is that if Theresa May had been Prime Minister from the day of the last election she'd have done a much better job of the renegotiation than Cameron and we wouldn't now be talking about Brexit.

Jonathan

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Right now May shouldn't want a game changer. She is winning. She is better going now, before she pisses some people off with whatever fudges she inevitably has to come up with.

Just listen to her. She is a politician with integrity

ROFL. Reminds me of Gove ruling out a challenge for leadership.

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Good time to be an exporter....

IanB2

geoffw said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

A depreciating £ is *good* for the economy.

In the long term a falling currency is rarely good news.

ThomasNashe

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Right now May shouldn't want a game changer. She is winning. She is better going now, before she pisses some people off with whatever fudges she inevitably has to come up with.

Just listen to her. She is a politician with integrity and in ruling out a GE before 2020 today in the media that is the end of the story. The only way she would call an election would be if the Great Repeal Act was defeated, but that is not going to happen before 2018

I'd imagine any proposal to establish new grammar schools would be defeated in the Commons ...

Moses_

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Does anyone know how accurate this is: British protestors travelling to Calais to OPPOSE France closing the camps..?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3818038/Police-Calais-use-tear-gas-water-cannons-violent-clashes-BRITISH-protesters-travelled-Jungle-oppose-migrant-camp-s-closure.html

Nothing would surprise me about Calais

They were there previously of course.

Seems an ongoing situation but what is noticeable the "refugees" are all young fit healthy men who seem not to wish to apply for entry using the normal legal channels.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3413566/Port-Calais-closed-migrants-storm-harbour-make-Spirit-Britain-ferry-desperate-bid-reach-UK.html

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Because it is not a zero sum game.

Gardenwalker

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

They probably wont. The question should be can the shortfall be made up elsewhere?

Yes. Double this.
The best option we've got might be NAFTA, but it'll take another generation.

The global mood's gone all anti trade liberalisation at precisely the most inconvenient moment.

williamglenn

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Right now May shouldn't want a game changer. She is winning. She is better going now, before she pisses some people off with whatever fudges she inevitably has to come up with.

Just listen to her. She is a politician with integrity

ROFL. Reminds me of Gove ruling out a challenge for leadership.

The ambition/ability ratio of Gove and Theresa May as politicians is not remotely comparable.

Gardenwalker

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Because it is not a zero sum game.

Non sequitur alert.

Tim_B

williamglenn said:

Tim_B said:

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

Just playing devil's advocate, but one way it might not be is if the Clinton campaign thinks, "It's just so easy to bait him!" and doubles down which might run the risk dragging the campaign down to his level and then being beaten by experience in the same way that most of his Republican rivals did eventually.

I don't know about "dragging the campaign down to his level" - I think you have this the wrong way round. Clinton's whole campaign is against Trump - she doesn't waste any time on policies at all. Trump at least spends some time on policy. If he is elected you know what he'll do - immigration, the VA and so on. We have no idea what Clinton wants to do, as all she does is attack Trump. Occasionally she'll refer to policies being on her website, but it's all Trump all the way for her. She has outspent him in some states by over 50 to 1, and by large amounts everywhere, but the margins are still small.

Dromedary

John Rentoul says in the Independent, "Finally we know what Brexit actually means – Theresa May intends to take us out of the single market". Well no. Free trade means staying in the single market, i.e. staying in the EU in all but name.

geoffw

IanB2 said:

geoffw said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

A depreciating £ is *good* for the economy.

In the long term a falling currency is rarely good news.

It reflects and corrects an imbalance in the economy. The imbalance we have is in the current a/c of the the balance of payments. But I agree that it's a short term fix and that in the long term a healthy economy does not have a feeble currency.

RobD

Dromedary said:

John Rentoul says in the Independent, "Finally we know what Brexit actually means – Theresa May intends to take us out of the single market". Well no. Free trade means staying in the single market.

Can't be in the free market without free movement though, unless the EU radically changes.

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Because, a la Sindy, we are all grown-ups. If IndyRef had been yes, then we would have come to a sensible accommodation.

For Brexit? We will be worse off economically, not that many will notice (look on it as an extra few pence on beer and fags...who cares?) but as I'm sure you are aware, anyone who breathes such sentiment is instantly condemned as a self-hating corporal in the EU army-to-be.

And of course, as we know from those on here, it is in any case a price worth paying.

SouthamObserver

Dromedary said:

John Rentoul says in the Independent, "Finally we know what Brexit actually means – Theresa May intends to take us out of the single market". Well no. Free trade means staying in the single market, i.e. staying in the EU in all but name.

Free trade with the single market is very different to being in the single market.

Big_G_NorthWales

The behaviour by Reed on beating McIlroy on the 18th is just unacceptable. Taunting and jingoistic. But probably reflects the US of today.

Sad really - and Europe look like losing this - just like Juncker's will when Theresa sets about him

AndyJS

"The metropolitan elite must lead the way
And both main parties should be wary of a membership boom
Matthew Parris"

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/the-metropolitan-elite-must-lead-the-way/

RobD

AndyJS said:

"The metropolitan elite must lead the way
And both main parties should be wary of a membership boom
Matthew Parris"

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/the-metropolitan-elite-must-lead-the-way/

Don't worry, the Tory membership figures are moribund

williamglenn

Tim_B said:

williamglenn said:

Tim_B said:

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

Just playing devil's advocate, but one way it might not be is if the Clinton campaign thinks, "It's just so easy to bait him!" and doubles down which might run the risk dragging the campaign down to his level and then being beaten by experience in the same way that most of his Republican rivals did eventually.

I don't know about "dragging the campaign down to his level" - I think you have this the wrong way round. Clinton's whole campaign is against Trump - she doesn't waste any time on policies at all. Trump at least spends some time on policy. If he is elected you know what he'll do - immigration, the VA and so on. We have no idea what Clinton wants to do, as all she does is attack Trump. Occasionally she'll refer to policies being on her website, but it's all Trump all the way for her. She has outspent him in some states by over 50 to 1, and by large amounts everywhere, but the margins are still small.

I was thinking more in terms of the personal interaction in the debates. In the primaries, Trump wasn't shy about deploying the same kind of rhetoric as he uses in his stump speeches (lyin' Ted etc) whereas, in his own way he was quite restrained in the debate with Hillary. If he comes out in the next one in full 'crooked Hillary is not fit to be President' mode it could be a game changer. There must be a 'bait' point for her too.

nunu

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tim_B said:

Watching the mainstream media now approaching critical mass and in full cry against Trump, his penchant for being sidetracked into picking stupid and pointless fights with non-political figures in spite of Kellyanne Conway's pleading (the latest with Alicia Machado, whom CNN also attacked and called fat etc), and so on, unless there is an October Surprise of truly stupendous proportions, I just don't see how Trump can win this.

For all the exposure of Clinton's email etc, and the rest of her dirty laundry, lying and dishonesty, the corruption and scandal of the Foundation, given Trump's predilection for being sidetracked, picking dumb fights, and not being able to walk away from anything plus the media's relentless negative gaze on him, I think this one is pretty much done.

I listened live to the debate and it was a car crash for both of them. Hilary did come out of it better but is this the best the US can do. John Kerry would leave them both standing

I really do fear for the next debate if Trump is true to his word and targets Bill Clinton /Monica Lewinsky and Hilary's private relationships. Just how low can they go

I wonder how many time he will attack question askers?

Mortimer

Gardenwalker said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Because it is not a zero sum game.

Non sequitur alert.

And another one, too.

Big_G_NorthWales

ThomasNashe said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

It will not happen before 2020 - the boundary changes are the game changer for the PM

Right now May shouldn't want a game changer. She is winning. She is better going now, before she pisses some people off with whatever fudges she inevitably has to come up with.

Just listen to her. She is a politician with integrity and in ruling out a GE before 2020 today in the media that is the end of the story. The only way she would call an election would be if the Great Repeal Act was defeated, but that is not going to happen before 2018

I'd imagine any proposal to establish new grammar schools would be defeated in the Commons ...

Doubt it - dup and ukip will support it

RobD

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

The kind of figures Cameron would have got had he campaigned to leave!

tlg86

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

Moses_

In other news today

Hungarians overwhelmingly reject migrant quotas, vote set to be invalid

Hungarians overwhelmingly rejected the European Union's scheme for migrant quotas at a referendum on Sunday with 94.8 percent of votes counted, data on the website of the National Election Office showed.

It said 98.2 percent of those who cast a valid vote rejected the quotas, but the vote was expected to be invalid as the turnout was less than the 50 percent required.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

The saddest thing is that if Theresa May had been Prime Minister from the day of the last election she'd have done a much better job of the renegotiation than Cameron and we wouldn't now be talking about Brexit.

I would agree with your comment - but that's with hindsight and we have to get on with leaving and achieving the best deal. I cannot think of a politician more able to do that at the present time than Theresa May

Speedy

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

Precisely, the opposition declared that since it can't win the referendum they would boycott it in order for it to fail.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Well, it is possible that the political terms of trade within Europe change during the two years' or so negotiation.
Freedom of movement as an absolute principle could conceivably be gone - one need only look at public debate in Hungary and France to see that's possible - which would significantly ease May's task.

Big_G_NorthWales

Moses_ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Does anyone know how accurate this is: British protestors travelling to Calais to OPPOSE France closing the camps..?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3818038/Police-Calais-use-tear-gas-water-cannons-violent-clashes-BRITISH-protesters-travelled-Jungle-oppose-migrant-camp-s-closure.html

Nothing would surprise me about Calais

They were there previously of course.

Seems an ongoing situation but what is noticeable the "refugees" are all young fit healthy men who seem not to wish to apply for entry using the normal legal channels.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3413566/Port-Calais-closed-migrants-storm-harbour-make-Spirit-Britain-ferry-desperate-bid-reach-UK.html

Sky were covering the refuge crisis and found three from Cuba would you believe

Scott_P

ThomasNashe said:

Anything happen in the football today?

@Coral: First time the Patriots have been shutout at home since 1993.
#NFL pic.twitter.com/f4F1xfckf6

Gardenwalker

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

RobD

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Scott_P

Mortimer said:

Good time to be an exporter....

As long as you don't import any of your raw materials.

Luckily we have an abundance of, oh...

Gardenwalker

Moses_ said:

In other news today

Hungarians overwhelmingly reject migrant quotas, vote set to be invalid

Hungarians overwhelmingly rejected the European Union's scheme for migrant quotas at a referendum on Sunday with 94.8 percent of votes counted, data on the website of the National Election Office showed.

It said 98.2 percent of those who cast a valid vote rejected the quotas, but the vote was expected to be invalid as the turnout was less than the 50 percent required.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3

This doesn't help Brexit.

Makes us look more isolated.

PlatoSaid

frpenkridge said:

OK, the aliens may eat a few of us and the democratic deficit may be large, but we would be mad to give up the security of a place in the Galactic Union.

I'd rather watch a #catboxsunday video than engage with dull Brexit fighting.

It's so done.

Gardenwalker

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Another referendum until the "right" answer is given?

A vote's a vote.

geoffw

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Nor the migrants.

RobD

Gardenwalker said:

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Another referendum until the "right" answer is given?

A vote's a vote.

A vote with a turnout threshold. If that threshold is not met, it is as if the vote never took place.

RobD

geoffw said:

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Nor the migrants.

Your coat, sir!

nunu

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

4% spoilt ballots, a lot of people must of thought it was a joke referundum or something unusually high. but the era of populism is indeed with us, how did the last one end?

Speedy

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

I think Orban will still refuse to accept migrants given that 44% of all Hungarians voted against migrants, 1% are in favour of migrants, and 55% didn't bother to express their opinion on this.

Big_G_NorthWales

Moses_ said:

In other news today

Hungarians overwhelmingly reject migrant quotas, vote set to be invalid

Hungarians overwhelmingly rejected the European Union's scheme for migrant quotas at a referendum on Sunday with 94.8 percent of votes counted, data on the website of the National Election Office showed.

It said 98.2 percent of those who cast a valid vote rejected the quotas, but the vote was expected to be invalid as the turnout was less than the 50 percent required.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3

It was reported that if the vote rejected the scheme but was below the 50% the government would pass it into law anyway

Nigelb

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

I keep on asking people this question, and am yet to receive a satisfactory response.

Why would the EU give us a better deal than we currently have, or even a deal as good as we've currently got?

Well, it is possible that the political terms of trade within Europe change during the two years' or so negotiation.
Freedom of movement as an absolute principle could conceivably be gone - one need only look at public debate in Hungary and France to see that's possible - which would significantly ease May's task.

French prez election is crucial. If Sarko wins, I reckon we could see a major offer from the EU. It suits them. As you say, the Hungarian vote proves that the era of FoM and Schengen (as we knew it) is over. Politicians across the EU are taking note.

If the old Federalist Juppe wins (and he is favourite) May has a significantly harder task.

Had Cameron been smarter, his renegotiation would still be going on, and his interlocutors would be in a far more uncomfortable position than when they shafted him (with his almost-collaboration, it has to be said).

dr_spyn

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

I interpret the March A50 date as opening up a May election.

In which case a critical issue is how the markets, currency, and the economy more generally, takes - in the very short run - the triggering of A50.

As I said lastthread, see the Asian forex markets tonight. They open soon.

In fact they've opened already

The £ is down half a cent

Hm.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

You mean leaving the single market would be bad for the economy?

Who knew, somebody should have said during the referendum.

Theresa May does not want to go down as the PM who botched Brexit, and fucked up the economy. I have faith she is cannier than you think, and will get a classic EU fudge where both sides can claim victory, and the economic damage is limited

It is the one thing the EU is usually quite good at.

The saddest thing is that if Theresa May had been Prime Minister from the day of the last election she'd have done a much better job of the renegotiation than Cameron and we wouldn't now be talking about Brexit.

I can't imagine Theresa May paying the asking price for a second hand car.

Gardenwalker

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

Moses_ said:

In other news today

Hungarians overwhelmingly reject migrant quotas, vote set to be invalid

Hungarians overwhelmingly rejected the European Union's scheme for migrant quotas at a referendum on Sunday with 94.8 percent of votes counted, data on the website of the National Election Office showed.

It said 98.2 percent of those who cast a valid vote rejected the quotas, but the vote was expected to be invalid as the turnout was less than the 50 percent required.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3

This doesn't help Brexit.

Makes us look more isolated.

Uh, what??

Orban failed to deliver an anti migrant majority.

If he had, it would have been easier for us to turn around and say, see, there are other countries who won't go along with an open door policy.

Orban will sell this how he wants -- but at the highest level -- the Hungarians haven't delivered a democratic rejection of migration.

Only we have.

PlatoSaid

FFS

Christopher Hope
EXC BBC accused of encouraging racial tension by trying to get EDL into audience on Question Time https://t.co/1wiGPaUlQw via @TelegraphNews

geoffw

I think the 50% rules requires the govt to implement it, but they can do so anyway if they wish.

Nigelb

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Another referendum until the "right" answer is given?

A vote's a vote.

A vote with a turnout threshold. If that threshold is not met, it is as if the vote never took place.

I doubt those who voted will accommodate you in that pretence, however invalid the vote might be.

tlg86

Speedy said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

I think Orban will still refuse to accept migrants given that 44% of all Hungarians voted against migrants, 1% are in favour of migrants, and 55% didn't bother to express their opinion on this.

Quite. That figure of 44% is better than what Leave achieved in June (37.5%).

Speedy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Moses_ said:

In other news today

Hungarians overwhelmingly reject migrant quotas, vote set to be invalid

Hungarians overwhelmingly rejected the European Union's scheme for migrant quotas at a referendum on Sunday with 94.8 percent of votes counted, data on the website of the National Election Office showed.

It said 98.2 percent of those who cast a valid vote rejected the quotas, but the vote was expected to be invalid as the turnout was less than the 50 percent required.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3

It was reported that if the vote rejected the scheme but was below the 50% the government would pass it into law anyway

I think since the Hungarian Government is against the quotas they will take the referendum result as a victory against quotas regardless.

RobD

Nigelb said:

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

The Hungarian result is astonishing. Only 45% turnout so not "valid", but:

Votes: 3 481 114
Yes: 55 942
No: 3 204 423
Invalid: 219 955

So basically Yes voters stayed at home to invalidate the result?

lol. I am fairly sure that is how the EU will "interpret" the result.

This actually makes it worse. The EU might still try and enforce the migration quota, but Orban cannot ignore a vote by half his people where 98% - literally, 98% - say NO to migrants.

The era of populism is upon us.

Orban's bluff has been called.

More migrants for Hungary, then - surely that's the "sovereign will" of the Magyar people?

No, the question hasn't been settled.

Another referendum until the "right" answer is given?

A vote's a vote.

A vote with a turnout threshold. If that threshold is not met, it is as if the vote never took place.

I doubt those who voted will accommodate you in that pretence, however invalid the vote might be.

Legally speaking, of course.

PlatoSaid

Hillary and her tin ear

While #Clinton knocks #Sanders fans as 'basement dwellers' -- Chelsea lives in $10M apartment https://t.co/9CdexjWCak https://t.co/91zoDRoP2R

PlatoSaid

Fox
North Carolina Poll Average: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton. https://t.co/gXudItK8na

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
North Carolina Poll Average: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton. https://t.co/gXudItK8na

Check the fieldwork dates....

FrancisUrquhart

God this ex bbc producer on Louis thereoux programme is worrying.

Speedy

Did someone say events ?

Hurricane Matthew (a category 4 one) seems to be on course to strike N.Carolina next weekend:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/113631.shtml?5day#contents

Earthquake advisory issued for South California this week:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/massive-7-magnitude-earthquake-southern-california-oes-usgs-experts-swarm-salton-sea-san-andreas-a7340936.html

Presidential candidates should practice their " President in a disaster movie" skills.

Sandpit

geoffw said:

I think the 50% rules requires the govt to implement it, but they can do so anyway if they wish.

Yes, but the EU could hold the government's choice - as opposed to its obligation - as being illegal under EU Law. Either way, Mrs Merkel's grand 'refugee' plan is unravelling a little more tonight.

Moses_

BBC reporting it as "Hungary referendum rejects EU mandatory migrant plan"

Also it looks like the Hungarians are going to implement the rejection.

"Right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Hungarians to reject the EU scheme, describing it as a threat to Europe's security and way of life.
He described the result as "overwhelming" and said the EU "cannot force" Hungary to accept migrants. He urged EU decision makers to take note of the referendum."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37528325

Mortimer

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:

Good time to be an exporter....

As long as you don't import any of your raw materials.

Luckily we have an abundance of, oh...

Exporters don't all need materials, and those that do often don't need to import them....

MarkHopkins

Moses_ said:

BBC reporting it as "Hungary referendum rejects EU mandatory migrant plan"

Also it looks like the Hungarians are going to implement the rejection.

"Right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Hungarians to reject the EU scheme, describing it as a threat to Europe's security and way of life.
He described the result as "overwhelming" and said the EU "cannot force" Hungary to accept migrants. He urged EU decision makers to take note of the referendum."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37528325

*waits for EU to pass law banning referendums*

rottenborough

Speedy said:

Did someone say events ?

Hurricane Matthew (a category 4 one) seems to be on course to strike N.Carolina next weekend:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/113631.shtml?5day#contents

Earthquake advisory issued for South California this week:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/massive-7-magnitude-earthquake-southern-california-oes-usgs-experts-swarm-salton-sea-san-andreas-a7340936.html

Presidential candidates should practice their " President in a disaster movie" skills.

Hmm. Can just imagine Trump in action: "Look at all these earthquake victims," he says, "they all shake so much, it's pathetic," standing at the podium shaking his whole body and waving his hands in the air.