politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winne

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, almost as horrendous as 'very unique'.

"Most winningest" is the one that has me ready to throw my tv out the window.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloomberg has announced it will be the first television network to conduct live on-screen fact checks of the candidates' statements during the debate.

Ah, fact checkers. Totally impartial and beyond reproach.

https://i.sli.mg/7rUCyY.jpg

surbiton said:

Speedy said:

Congratulations to the winners.

Time now for the weekly update of my average tracking poll.

Hillary 46.5 +1
Trump 43 -1

Hillary has now recovered completely from her collapse of late August.
Movements since the first update:

Hillary 46.5 45.5 44.5 45 46 46.5 46.5 47 44.5
Trump 43 44 43 42 42 41 40.5 41 42.5

Basically they are both at their convention highs, which translates into a comfy Hillary lead since she had the biggest convention bounce.

Though in 538, it is getting narrower. Colorado is more in the blue region.
I'd rather be in HRC's situation with CO and NH than Trump's with FL and OH.

Depends on the direction of the mo, and that seems all in Trump's favour at the moment.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, almost as horrendous as 'very unique'.

Indeed. Even after 25 years I am still learning new differences between US and British English. The frown discussion from last week was entirely new to me. And to my American wife (from the other side of the debate), despite her having lived in the UK and Europe as a kid. I was unaware that to Americans a frown was to do with the mouth, and she was unaware to the Brits it was about the eyebrows.

Jonathan said:

Currently in NYC. Everyone is talking about the debate in the office. It is constantly on the TV. Much more so than the UK.

Struck by how big a deal this.

They just showed the trailer on CH4...it was like it was the trailer for an NFL game.

David_Evershed said:

Anyone got news from the Witney by-election?

Candidates are:

Conservative: Robert Courts
Labour: Duncan Enright
UKIP: Dickie Bird
Green Party: Larry Sanders
English Democrats: Winston McKenzie
Liberal Democrats: Liz Leffman
Emilio Rose Arno - One Love Party
David Laurence Bishop - Bus-pass Elvis Party
Mad Hatter - Monster Raving Loony Party
Lord Toby Jug - Eccentric Party of Great Britain
Adam Digby Knight - Independent
Helen Rachel Salisbury - National Health Action Party
Daniel James Skidmore - Independent
Nicholas Ward - Independent

No Women's Equality party? Shocking dereliction.

MikeK said:

https://twitter.com/MikiBooth/status/780479101605904384
The Debate starts in 5hrs 39 mins.

I should have said this debate is more like a WWE event than an NFL game.

Mr. Urquhart, not quite the same, but one that made me question the speaker's intelligence was when an ITV reporter referred to an avalanche going 'downhill, powered by gravity'.

Thanks, Sherlock. I think we solved the mystery of why avalanches don't go uphill.

Scott_P said:

@JamesTapsfield: Corbyn has cancelled his broadcast round of interviews tomorrow. Diary issues apparently

"Diary issues" is just such a bollocks excuse.....

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

Massively. This is the last chance to make money.

I'm hoping there will be many more chances when the ECV markets get going properly.

Out of interest, are any PB'ers backing Clinton right now?

@JackW ?

I am backing Clinton. I have stuck with her, based entirely on two things: demographics and ground game. DYOR.

David_Evershed said:

Anyone got news from the Witney by-election?

Candidates are:

Conservative: Robert Courts
Labour: Duncan Enright
UKIP: Dickie Bird
Green Party: Larry Sanders
English Democrats: Winston McKenzie
Liberal Democrats: Liz Leffman
Emilio Rose Arno - One Love Party
David Laurence Bishop - Bus-pass Elvis Party
Mad Hatter - Monster Raving Loony Party
Lord Toby Jug - Eccentric Party of Great Britain
Adam Digby Knight - Independent
Helen Rachel Salisbury - National Health Action Party
Daniel James Skidmore - Independent
Nicholas Ward - Independent

Made my eye twitch the way party and candidate was reversed half way down

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

@JamesTapsfield: Corbyn has cancelled his broadcast round of interviews tomorrow. Diary issues apparently

"Diary issues" is just such a bollocks excuse.....

Its an advance on "I'm making Jam".

Perhaps, after all the sniffing, he has pneumonia.

RobD said:

David_Evershed said:

Anyone got news from the Witney by-election?

Candidates are:

Conservative: Robert Courts
Labour: Duncan Enright
UKIP: Dickie Bird
Green Party: Larry Sanders
English Democrats: Winston McKenzie
Liberal Democrats: Liz Leffman
Emilio Rose Arno - One Love Party
David Laurence Bishop - Bus-pass Elvis Party
Mad Hatter - Monster Raving Loony Party
Lord Toby Jug - Eccentric Party of Great Britain
Adam Digby Knight - Independent
Helen Rachel Salisbury - National Health Action Party
Daniel James Skidmore - Independent
Nicholas Ward - Independent

Made my eye twitch the way party and candidate was reversed half way down

Well done Rob. I wondered who would spot that first.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

snip
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-the-tories-brexit-gaffes-are-enough-to-make-you-sick-a3354101.html

Thanks but I was more moved by these words in that column about Springsteen "In a spoken preamble to a live performances of his song, The River, he describes how his father fought him over his long hair, saying that the army would make a man of him. Then he was drafted for Vietnam. “I remember coming home after I’d been gone for three days and walking in the kitchen and my mother and father were sitting there and my dad said, ‘Where you been?’ and I said, ‘I went to take my physical’. He said, ‘What happened?’ I said, ‘They didn’t take me’. And he said, ‘That’s good’.” And then he goes into the song. God it breaks your heart."

I went to a funeral of a friend's father today. The River by Springsteen is a great favourite.

Yes he is a powerful songrwriter, saw him at Wembley 3 years ago and he was worth every penny

Everything has to be gladiatorial - even the talk shows, and especially film reviewers ...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

Currently in NYC. Everyone is talking about the debate in the office. It is constantly on the TV. Much more so than the UK.

Struck by how big a deal this.

They just showed the trailer on CH4...it was like it was the trailer for an NFL game.

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

snip
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-the-tories-brexit-gaffes-are-enough-to-make-you-sick-a3354101.html

Thanks but I was more moved by these words in that column about Springsteen "In a spoken preamble to a live performances of his song, The River, he describes how his father fought him over his long hair, saying that the army would make a man of him. Then he was drafted for Vietnam. “I remember coming home after I’d been gone for three days and walking in the kitchen and my mother and father were sitting there and my dad said, ‘Where you been?’ and I said, ‘I went to take my physical’. He said, ‘What happened?’ I said, ‘They didn’t take me’. And he said, ‘That’s good’.” And then he goes into the song. God it breaks your heart."

I went to a funeral of a friend's father today. The River by Springsteen is a great favourite.

Yes he is a powerful songrwriter, saw him at Wembley 3 years ago and he was worth every penny

Saw him at Rolex at the North American Young Riders Championships. His daughter does the jumpers, mine dressage and eventing. The daughter went up to him to get her competition t-shirt signed. He drew his guitar and signed it. Very gracious. Patti far less so - seemed put off these young (teen) girls wanted Bruce's autograph.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jesus Christ Jon Snow...."You (Labour) are one of the only socialist parties in the ascendancy across Europe"....which bit of lowest polling for donkeys years and 15%+ behind the Tories = ascendancy?

Channel 4 News is Grauniad TV, and this hyperbolic nonsense is not a complete surprise coming from Jon Snow - although describing Labour as being "in the ascendancy" is stretching credulity, to put it mildly.

Mind you, compared with the German SPD and especially the French Socialists, Labour's performance is stellar...

surbiton said:

I have never understood why the Clinton campaign do not raise Trump's Chapter 11 episodes more often. He has painted himself as the great American capitalist. On many occasions , at the cost of small creditors.

You are showing your Britishness by that query. In the US, the sin is not to fail but not to try. And history is for the birds, it is where you are now.

Here is a quote from a book from one of the new breed of business gurus in the US, Seth Godin.

'The secret of being wrong isn't to avoid being wrong. The secret is being willing to be wrong. The secret is realizing that wrong isn't fatal. The only thing that makes people and organizations great is their willingness to be not great along the way. The desire to fail on the way to reaching a bigger goal is the untold secret of success.'

This, more than anything else, is what I think separates ordinary Americans from ordinary Brits.

BigRich said:

Can anybody help me? what time (UK) is the US Presidential debate tonight?

2am. Not sure at what time Betfair has Clinton collapsing or Trump waving his hands around.

surbiton said:

Are there any polls by gender and / or ethnic background ? Because it was said confidently that because of the Black, Hispanic and Women's vote, Trump would have to win almost 70% of the White male votes. Clearly that is not possible.

So, some Afro-Americans, Hispanics and Women must have moved towards Trump.

I think it's entirely possible that 70% of non-Hispanic White men will vote for Trump.

BigRich said:

Can anybody help me? what time (UK) is the US Presidential debate tonight?

2 am bst

MikeK said:

Trump moves into position:
https://twitter.com/politico/status/780473213696483328

That actually looks like a decent set of polls for Hillary? She holds a narrow lead in two states she doesn't need to win (including FL, which gives her a super bonus) and a solid lead in a state she does need - VA.

Speedy said:

.

The 2016 presidential election looks very french, voters see change as the greatest threat of all.

Frankly, I think that is about as big a load of bollocks as I've seen written or heard said about this election.

Just about everyone in the US wants change. All of the GOP, whether they are with Trump or not, want change. All of the Libertarians and Greens want change. And about 50% of the Democratic party want change, hence the Bernie vote.

By my reckoning, that is at least 77% of the electorate that want radical change.

BigRich said:

Can anybody help me? what time (UK) is the US Presidential debate tonight?

Too late for me...

MTimT said:

Speedy said:

.

The 2016 presidential election looks very french, voters see change as the greatest threat of all.

Frankly, I think that is about as big a load of bollocks as I've seen written or heard said about this election.

Just about everyone in the US wants change. All of the GOP, whether they are with Trump or not, want change. All of the Libertarians and Greens want change. And about 50% of the Democratic party want change, hence the Bernie vote.

By my reckoning, that is at least 77% of the electorate that want radical change.

That's why I said it looks very french, people want change but will refuse to elect it, like in France or elsewhere in europe or Japan.

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

Are there any polls by gender and / or ethnic background ? Because it was said confidently that because of the Black, Hispanic and Women's vote, Trump would have to win almost 70% of the White male votes. Clearly that is not possible.

So, some Afro-Americans, Hispanics and Women must have moved towards Trump.

I think it's entirely possible that 70% of non-Hispanic White men will vote for Trump.

That would be astonishing.

Speedy said:

nunu said:

surbiton said:

Are there any polls by gender and / or ethnic background ? Because it was said confidently that because of the Black, Hispanic and Women's vote, Trump would have to win almost 70% of the White male votes. Clearly that is not possible.

So, some Afro-Americans, Hispanics and Women must have moved towards Trump.

or people moved away from Clinton to others? She is having a real issue to get the Obama coalition of young voters, African Americans and others to back her. Also the 65 and over are breaking heavily for Trump.

She needs to address the shootings tonight in her opening statement.

Looking at the race there has been a tango dance between Trump <-> Other<->Hillary.

Right now my money is on Hillary, because Trump has never lead and Hillary has always hit plenty of times 50% in the polls.

In fact with the riots and terrorism Hillary has gone up and Trump has gone down in the polls, voters think Hillary is the safest choice at a time of crisis even if she is at fault for said crisis.

The 2016 presidential election looks very french, voters see change as the greatest threat of all.

The "change" choice is always handicapped. Brexit overcame that handicap because of the extraordinary ineptness of the Remain campaign and Merkel's "all are welcome" message to all immigrants.

Mr. Cide, aye, as Machiavelli wrote, those who would be weakened by change are resolutely against it, whereas those who might gain see only an ephemeral possibility of advantage, and need substantial persuasion, and even then are less likely to be devoted than those opposed.

Which serves as a reminder of how astonishing the vote here was.

Anyway, I must be off. Enjoy the debate, everyone.

JosiasJessop said:

I've been busy today: what's the latest on Labour's resignations and the Letter of Doom (tm) ?

Has it all been a damp squib, or has it been delayed in the (privatised) post?

Damp squib, Mr. J.. A few (5?) councillors have resigned from the party, nothing more.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

Are there any polls by gender and / or ethnic background ? Because it was said confidently that because of the Black, Hispanic and Women's vote, Trump would have to win almost 70% of the White male votes. Clearly that is not possible.

So, some Afro-Americans, Hispanics and Women must have moved towards Trump.

I think it's entirely possible that 70% of non-Hispanic White men will vote for Trump.

That would be astonishing.

Here, play with this, the graphs look great.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-groups-fueling-the-election/

Trump has now a 52 point lead with non-college white men.
Hillary has a 43 point lead with Hispanics.

Now if Trump can replicate that 52 point lead with college white men, he would win, but it would need some effort to convince them that he is smart.

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

I've been busy today: what's the latest on Labour's resignations and the Letter of Doom (tm) ?

Has it all been a damp squib, or has it been delayed in the (privatised) post?

Damp squib, Mr. J.. A few (5?) councillors have resigned from the party, nothing more.

Ah, that's a shame. Still, we have the debate to look forward to.

And later tomorrow, the *really* important thing: Elon Musk's talk where he'll tell us how we'll get to Mars!

If someone'll pay for it ...

ReggieCide said:

MTimT said:

Speedy said:

.

The 2016 presidential election looks very french, voters see change as the greatest threat of all.

Frankly, I think that is about as big a load of bollocks as I've seen written or heard said about this election.

Just about everyone in the US wants change. All of the GOP, whether they are with Trump or not, want change. All of the Libertarians and Greens want change. And about 50% of the Democratic party want change, hence the Bernie vote.

By my reckoning, that is at least 77% of the electorate that want radical change.

So Trump wins by a distance?

Not what I said. People want different, not necessarily GOP different.

I have consistently thrown my hands up in despair in calling this race. No-one can convince me that they know what the electorate will be on the day. Without knowledge of that, calling this election is for the birds. Everything from a Hillary EC landslide to a Trump one is possible.

I see labour has discovered socialism. I wonder how that new idea will pan out.

weejonnie said:

Another Ipsos lucky dip has come out.

Clinton good in North Carolina (+6) Ohio (+3)
Trump good in Pennsylvania +1
Clinton good in Florida (+4)
Trump good in Oregon (Tie)
Clinton good in Minnesota (+7)
Trump good in Wisconsin (Tie)
Trump good in Colorado (+2)
Trump good in Michigan (tie)
Trump good in Maine (-1+1)
Clinton Good in New Hampshire (+15)

Poll samples are ridiculously low.

538 have these (and others) as slightly better for Clinton as she takes a narrow lead in the Nowcast scenario.

What did I say yesterday about posting Reuters polls on PB ?

They had Vermont a GOP landslide just yesterday.

MTimT said:

ReggieCide said:

MTimT said:

Speedy said:

.

The 2016 presidential election looks very french, voters see change as the greatest threat of all.

Frankly, I think that is about as big a load of bollocks as I've seen written or heard said about this election.

Just about everyone in the US wants change. All of the GOP, whether they are with Trump or not, want change. All of the Libertarians and Greens want change. And about 50% of the Democratic party want change, hence the Bernie vote.

By my reckoning, that is at least 77% of the electorate that want radical change.

So Trump wins by a distance?

Not what I said. People want different, not necessarily GOP different.

I have consistently thrown my hands up in despair in calling this race. No-one can convince me that they know what the electorate will be on the day. Without knowledge of that, calling this election is for the birds. Everything from a Hillary EC landslide to a Trump one is possible.

Ha, glad to know it's not just me, there's more than a few knowledgable people here who can still see either the closest race since 2000, or an EC landslide in either direction!

Speedy said:

weejonnie said:

Another Ipsos lucky dip has come out.

Clinton good in North Carolina (+6) Ohio (+3)
Trump good in Pennsylvania +1
Clinton good in Florida (+4)
Trump good in Oregon (Tie)
Clinton good in Minnesota (+7)
Trump good in Wisconsin (Tie)
Trump good in Colorado (+2)
Trump good in Michigan (tie)
Trump good in Maine (-1+1)
Clinton Good in New Hampshire (+15)

Poll samples are ridiculously low.

538 have these (and others) as slightly better for Clinton as she takes a narrow lead in the Nowcast scenario.

What did I say yesterday about posting Reuters polls on PB ?

They had Vermont a GOP landslide just yesterday.

CON Gain Bootle territory?

rottenborough said:

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

Massively. This is the last chance to make money.

I'm hoping there will be many more chances when the ECV markets get going properly.

Out of interest, are any PB'ers backing Clinton right now?

@JackW ?

I am backing Clinton. I have stuck with her, based entirely on two things: demographics and ground game. DYOR.

I'm the same. I'll probably do a thread on the ground game once some of the dust has cleared (it won't be much new since I don't exactly have my ear to the American soil but it's a nice angle).

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

Third. And 93rd.

Sorry I was 93rd. You were a fairly dismal 94th.

One day I am going to come close in one of these competitions. But it was not this day.

Not so. You have to take off the top title line. Congratulations on making the top 92. It'd matter if it was football.

I feel so much better about myself now. In the League! Result.

foxinsoxuk said:

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

Massively. This is the last chance to make money.

I'm hoping there will be many more chances when the ECV markets get going properly.

Out of interest, are any PB'ers backing Clinton right now?

@JackW ?

I think Hillary will win, but the odds are not attractive.

I haven't much on this game.

I think the chances of a Hillary win (or a Trump loss) have been very stable since the conventions, 90%.

With the debate who knows, but I think even if Trump wins the debate the numbers won't budge much, they will probably go back to a tie for a while.

Though the FBI is due to release it's 3rd batch of their investigation of Hillary on Friday (of course) Nov.4th just 4 days before election day.
Which means the last few days before the election will be Email Scandal time again.

@PolhomeEditor: Ed Balls tells ITV's The Agenda: "It may be that Labour, as it stands, is never going to be elected again."

Jobabob said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

Are there any polls by gender and / or ethnic background ? Because it was said confidently that because of the Black, Hispanic and Women's vote, Trump would have to win almost 70% of the White male votes. Clearly that is not possible.

So, some Afro-Americans, Hispanics and Women must have moved towards Trump.

I think it's entirely possible that 70% of non-Hispanic White men will vote for Trump.

He only has 76% of non-college white males, so I'd suggest that him carrying all white

rottenborough said:

David_Evershed said:

Anyone got news from the Witney by-election?

Candidates are:

Conservative: Robert Courts
Labour: Duncan Enright
UKIP: Dickie Bird
Green Party: Larry Sanders
English Democrats: Winston McKenzie
Liberal Democrats: Liz Leffman
Emilio Rose Arno - One Love Party
David Laurence Bishop - Bus-pass Elvis Party
Mad Hatter - Monster Raving Loony Party
Lord Toby Jug - Eccentric Party of Great Britain
Adam Digby Knight - Independent
Helen Rachel Salisbury - National Health Action Party
Daniel James Skidmore - Independent
Nicholas Ward - Independent

No Women's Equality party? Shocking dereliction.

Dickie Bird standing for UKIP? I'm surprised Jack Russell didn't fancy standing for the WEP

To win, I think Trump needs to win c. 62% of the non-Hispanic White vote, which could then break 70% male, 54% female. He's about 2% short at the moment.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I know of somebody who has $100k on Clinton....This is how I imagine they look after seeing the Nowcast on 538.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/cb/e5/33/cbe53321847e828e260799910b369bc6.gif

If only they had had $100k on Leave

HurstLlama said:

Black_Rook said:

Have just been learning a little about the ructions at Deutsche Bank: what with Labour going potty, Trumpmania, and the usual clucking over Brexit, episode 23,178 of the endless Eurozone financial crisis had quite escaped me.

I wonder what the chances (a) of Merkel being forced to instigate a bailout, (b) of Merkel surviving as Chancellor if she does, and (c) of a banking crisis in Germany rippling outwards and blowing up the Euro?

Looks scary, don't it? Merkel has, I read, said today that Germany will not bail out Deutsche Bank and DB's long-standing troubles seem to be getting worse. If it goes down it could stuff Germany politically in the EU if they rescue it (having been so brutal with Greece, Cyprus, Italy et al) or economically if they do not.

We just have to hope that Deutsche Bank does not go down, not that I would put any money on it or lend any to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank are so stupid they'll lend money to Donald Trump and expect to get it back!

Alistair said:

HurstLlama said:

Black_Rook said:

Have just been learning a little about the ructions at Deutsche Bank: what with Labour going potty, Trumpmania, and the usual clucking over Brexit, episode 23,178 of the endless Eurozone financial crisis had quite escaped me.

I wonder what the chances (a) of Merkel being forced to instigate a bailout, (b) of Merkel surviving as Chancellor if she does, and (c) of a banking crisis in Germany rippling outwards and blowing up the Euro?

Looks scary, don't it? Merkel has, I read, said today that Germany will not bail out Deutsche Bank and DB's long-standing troubles seem to be getting worse. If it goes down it could stuff Germany politically in the EU if they rescue it (having been so brutal with Greece, Cyprus, Italy et al) or economically if they do not.

We just have to hope that Deutsche Bank does not go down, not that I would put any money on it or lend any to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank are so stupid they'll lend money to Donald Trump and expect to get it back!

The thing likely to finish off Deutsche Bank is the US fine.

MikeK said:

https://twitter.com/HandofGOD7/status/780133094783324161

I have mentioned Malmo many times over the years.
It's like a typical middle eastern city now, complete with a low level civil war, but much colder than Baghdad.

It's a model for what I'm afraid of with unrestricted immigration, that all those first generation immigrants simply move their national and social problems with them.

In the case of Malmo the civil wars of the middle east have moved to Sweden along with the middle eastern immigrants.

A lot of Americans are expecting the American economy to collapse tomorrow and the dollar's value to fall to 0.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

Are there any polls by gender and / or ethnic background ? Because it was said confidently that because of the Black, Hispanic and Women's vote, Trump would have to win almost 70% of the White male votes. Clearly that is not possible.

So, some Afro-Americans, Hispanics and Women must have moved towards Trump.

I think it's entirely possible that 70% of non-Hispanic White men will vote for Trump.

That would be astonishing.

that seems high to me; i suspect he'll end up in the mid-60s, not least because quite a few white men will vote Johnson

HurstLlama said:

Black_Rook said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I see labour has discovered socialism. I wonder how that new idea will pan out.

I stand to be corrected by events, but I doubt if it will go down terribly well in Hertfordshire.

Or in Herefordshire or Hampshire. For as we all know, in Hertfordshire, Herefordshire and Hampshire hurricanes hardly ever happen.

Hubris hoft-times

frpenkridge said:

A lot of Americans are expecting the American economy to collapse tomorrow and the dollar's value to fall to 0.

When Deutsche Bank Go Under they may be right.