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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winne

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winners: Alex Bolton and John Loony get closest

Eligible voters: 654,006
Votes cast: 506,438
Spoilt ballots: 1,042
Corbyn: 313,209 – 61.85%
Smith: 193,229 – 38.15%
Margin: 23.70%

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    First...as in first out the door if Jezza wins in 2020.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Second!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    Third. And 93rd.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Congrats to the victors.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    18th
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ HurstLlama FPT

    Weren't Australia and New Zealand in SEATO?

    On a tangent, I had not realized that the UK was the only country in all three of NATO, CENTO and SEATO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited September 2016
    Fifth like UKIP

    My god my iPad doesn't like this thread at all
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,917
    Will the Axolotl please stand up?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    FPT
    williamglenn said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    As to Navies, no need while nato exists. It sort of surprises me that Australia have never joined, and that France did.

    Does that surprise make you consider that your world view is perhaps incomplete?
    Not really. France have already walked out of Nato in a Huff once.

    Canada are arguably just as egregious as Australia in terms of membership and are in. The gathering power of China may yet see Australia join but would need a rule change.

    Fortunately We Aus Nz Can and US had the sense to set up
    AUSCANNZUKUS and five eyes enabling us to function effectively as a single Navy.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUSCANNZUKUS?wprov=sfla1


  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Congrats to the winners. It's interesting the some of the well-known and usually well-informed Labour posters here were miles out. That probably tells you more about what has happened to the Labour Party than anything else.

    (Incidentally, I think the spreadsheet isn't quite right. It looks at the margin but ignores the rather important detail of the sign of the margin. So @Tc at position 23 has been rather flattered by the spreadsheet!)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Alright, who picked a 97.35% margin for Owen? Come on, fess up!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    Only 30th ? – blimey, my prediction skills/ lucky guesses have gone to pot.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I think poor old @MikeK deserves more than just a paragraph at the bottom!

    After all everyone still laughs at his prediction of 102 UKIP MPs...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    IanB2 said:

    Fifth like UKIP

    My god my iPad doesn't like this thread at all

    Mine neither. It's loading the 500 row sheet in full, then shrinking it to size for the window.
    Use the Vanilla link instead:
    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4127/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-pb-lab-leadership-election-prediction-competition-winne#latest
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "France have already walked out of Nato in a Huff once."

    Just to continue PB's tradition of pedantry:

    France didn't actually leave NATO. Under De Gaulle it left its unified command structure but remained a signatory to the treaty.

    Pendant mode over.

    Of course, France's usefulness and reliability as an ally is well known. My favorite example in recent years is Gulf War I. She joined the coalition, sent a contingent of troops and wanted to be included in the strategic planning and at the same time her defence minister was chairman of the Franco-Iraqi Friendship Society in frequent contact with Saddam. Not surprisingly Schwarzkopf and De Billiere excluded the French commander from their counsels.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Not usually-dependable-on-Labour-matters Henry G Manson's finest hour - 177 out of 195!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,239
    david_herdson said:

    Third. And 93rd.

    Sorry I was 93rd. You were a fairly dismal 94th.

    One day I am going to come close in one of these competitions. But it was not this day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    The Bureau, on Amazon Prime. Recommended. OT
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Charles said:

    I think poor old @MikeK deserves more than just a paragraph at the bottom!

    After all everyone still laughs at his prediction of 102 UKIP MPs...

    Charles said:

    I think poor old @MikeK deserves more than just a paragraph at the bottom!

    After all everyone still laughs at his prediction of 102 UKIP MPs...

    Agreed. MikeK deserves a bigger shout out than that!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    RobD said:

    Alright, who picked a 97.35% margin for Owen? Come on, fess up!

    Can't see Don Brind's entry anywhere else....
  • SwanarcadianSwanarcadian Posts: 6
    Congratulations to John Loony, who is also a member of my forum.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Also I’m delighted to announce that the Referendum Prediction Competition was won by Mike K. Mike Smithson

    Unfair on MikeK not be seen on top of a long list. :(

    But I'm betting that The Donald will win tonights head to head with Hillary. Margin? 12%±.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    MikeK said:

    Also I’m delighted to announce that the Referendum Prediction Competition was won by Mike K. Mike Smithson

    Unfair on MikeK not be seen on top of a long list. :(

    But I'm betting that The Donald will win tonights head to head with Hillary. Margin? 12%±.

    Well done! Clearly you are either very right or very wrong :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #Labour MP Jonathan Reynolds to return as Shadow City Minister under Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,560
    Blimey, almost last. No wonder I am skint.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    fpt - difficult to know whether Mr Meeks' position on Leavers is closer to Caligula (he wishes they all had one neck, which he could cut) or Wowbagger the Infinitely Prolonged (he would like to insult every single one of them individually, in alphabetical order).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #Labour MP Jonathan Reynolds to return as Shadow City Minister under Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

    Wasn't he the guy who was in post for nearly a year, yet met precisely no-one from the City?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #Labour MP Jonathan Reynolds to return as Shadow City Minister under Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

    Wasn't he the guy who was in post for nearly a year, yet met precisely no-one from the City?
    No...you are getting confused with Richard "farting commie" Burgon.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    There is clearly something deeply personal going on regarding Brexit to AM, possibly involving an association with an individual - who might have either actually declared for Brexit, or would be representative of a typical Brexit supporter - who gravely wronged him in the past.

    So I think it's best not to engage him on the subject.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited September 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #Labour MP Jonathan Reynolds to return as Shadow City Minister under Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

    Wasn't he the guy who was in post for nearly a year, yet met precisely no-one from the City?
    No...you are getting confused with Richard "farting commie" Burgon.
    Ah yes, too easy to get one commie confused with another. They all act the same.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Congrats to the winners - and more particularly to MikeK. Quite a performance; I wonder if 102 might be closer in 2020...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. D, better to be utterly wrong half the time (the other half being entirely right) that vague, bland, and middle of the road.

    After all, if a chap gets half his 6/1 shots right, that's damned good.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Point of order, Corbyn by 0.01 is more accurate than Smith by 20.65 !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Ken Loach likely to rejoin Labour after leaving in protest at Blair
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/veteran-filmmaker-ken-loach-is-considering-rejoining-labour-after-quitting-in-the-mid-nineties-a3354116.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Well done to the winners and to @MikeK for the referendum prediction. Hope you made s sackful of money on it as well!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2016
    Is it my iPhone or is it the thread? It doesn't like loading it one little bit. Takes yonks.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    Congratulations to the winners.

    Time now for the weekly update of my average tracking poll.

    Hillary 46.5 +1
    Trump 43 -1

    Hillary has now recovered completely from her collapse of late August.
    Movements since the first update:

    Hillary 46.5 45.5 44.5 45 46 46.5 46.5 47 44.5
    Trump 43 44 43 42 42 41 40.5 41 42.5

    Basically they are both at their convention highs, which translates into a comfy Hillary lead since she had the biggest convention bounce.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    MikeK said:

    Also I’m delighted to announce that the Referendum Prediction Competition was won by Mike K. Mike Smithson
    Unfair on MikeK not be seen on top of a long list. :(
    But I'm betting that The Donald will win tonights head to head with Hillary. Margin? 12%±.

    Well done MikeK. Henceforth known as the EU referendum expert.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Some interesting excerpts from the Oliver book. "Who knew that Boris texted the PM to reassure him that the Out campaign would be “crushed like the toad beneath the harrow” — and then nine minutes later declared for Leave?" "May and Philip Hammond torpedoed the “emergency brake” on migration that might have swung the referendum for fear of upsetting Angela Merkel — causing Mr Cameron to dismiss them as “lily-livered”

    Most amusing though is this Alan Duncan story "As Hamlet has its gravedigger and Macbeth its drunken night porter, so too Oliver offers comic relief in the form of a press release that nice little orange Alan Duncan drafted to announce his support for Remain. “To have won over such a senior and experienced political figure will be seen as a significant coup,” Alan Duncan wrote about Alan Duncan. “All the more so as Alan Duncan is seen as independent-minded and someone who cannot be pushed around.”
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-the-tories-brexit-gaffes-are-enough-to-make-you-sick-a3354101.html
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    *cough*

    I see I was respectably placed at number 28, in the top 30, and precisely 147 places ahead of Henry G Manson, PB's official expert on Labour's internal politics.

    "Experts". Pah!


    27th. First line is titles.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    There is clearly something deeply personal going on regarding Brexit to AM, possibly involving an association with an individual - who might have either actually declared for Brexit, or would be representative of a typical Brexit supporter - who gravely wronged him in the past. So I think it's best not to engage him on the subject.
    AM "Ugly stupid Britain won. Britain is set to get uglier and stupider."
    Just plain unhinged. How can you despise most of your fellow citizens so much and remain here? Or does he just hate the institution of the UK and wants it replaced by the EU?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Thanks to Don Brind I came 156th.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,571
    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    There is clearly something deeply personal going on regarding Brexit to AM, possibly involving an association with an individual - who might have either actually declared for Brexit, or would be representative of a typical Brexit supporter - who gravely wronged him in the past.

    So I think it's best not to engage him on the subject.
    My take is simply that he enjoys the feeling of being European and having a stake in its full breadth and rich cultural tapestry.

    Brexit feels like a rejection of all that; a retreat.

    Certainly that's how I feel; it's an emotional reflex rather than a rational one (although I believe Leaving to also be irrational).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Mortimer said:

    Congrats to the winners - and more particularly to MikeK. Quite a performance; I wonder if 102 might be closer in 2020...

    As things currently stand, Ukip will be doing well to win more than 2, never mind 102. They have an electoral Everest to climb.

    Then again, assuming next GE is on schedule we have over 3 years left for Diane James to try to get them somewhere useful, and for Labour to continue to falter. I'm confident that the Tories will, at the bare minimum, maintain (and in all likelihood increase) their vote share, and I don't see Labour taking less than about 150 seats, barring a total rupture and an all-out death struggle between the two resulting parties. But this still leaves some room in between for Ukip to go on manoeuvres, if they possess the wherewithal to do so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    *cough*

    I see I was respectably placed at number 28, in the top 30, and precisely 147 places ahead of Henry G Manson, PB's official expert on Labour's internal politics.

    "Experts". Pah!


    27th. First line is titles.

    Shouldn't all the Smith predictors be under the Corbyn ones *innocent face* ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Congratulations too to Alex, John Loony and Mike K on their forecasting skills!
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Ishmael_X said:

    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    fpt - difficult to know whether Mr Meeks' position on Leavers is closer to Caligula (he wishes they all had one neck, which he could cut) or Wowbagger the Infinitely Prolonged (he would like to insult every single one of them individually, in alphabetical order).
    Caligula for sure. Wowbagger at least treated his victims as individuals.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html

    There is a bit in the Mail today about Balls just happening to be caught on camera being a gentleman.

    Call me a cynic over all of this....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    Pulpstar said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    *cough*

    I see I was respectably placed at number 28, in the top 30, and precisely 147 places ahead of Henry G Manson, PB's official expert on Labour's internal politics.

    "Experts". Pah!


    27th. First line is titles.

    Shouldn't all the Smith predictors be under the Corbyn ones *innocent face* ?
    In the sense that they were less accurate or in he sense that they are totally screwed?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Urquhart, ha.

    I heard a few anecdotes about him. Nothing sinister, I hasten to add, but they had in common his boorishness.

    His media manipulation has improved since his ham-fisted "The Antiques Roadshow makes me cry" offering.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    CH4 vox pops on Jahadi Jez from the North West coming up....

    The highlights included...has he got what it takes to be PM...has he beeeeeeeeeeeep...uck.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    HYUFD said:

    Congratulations too to Alex, John Loony and Mike K on their forecasting skills!

    Seconded - well done to all concerned.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting excerpts from the Oliver book. "Who knew that Boris texted the PM to reassure him that the Out campaign would be “crushed like the toad beneath the harrow” — and then nine minutes later declared for Leave?" "May and Philip Hammond torpedoed the “emergency brake” on migration that might have swung the referendum for fear of upsetting Angela Merkel — causing Mr Cameron to dismiss them as “lily-livered”

    Most amusing though is this Alan Duncan story "As Hamlet has its gravedigger and Macbeth its drunken night porter, so too Oliver offers comic relief in the form of a press release that nice little orange Alan Duncan drafted to announce his support for Remain. “To have won over such a senior and experienced political figure will be seen as a significant coup,” Alan Duncan wrote about Alan Duncan. “All the more so as Alan Duncan is seen as independent-minded and someone who cannot be pushed around.”
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-the-tories-brexit-gaffes-are-enough-to-make-you-sick-a3354101.html

    If Cummings is to be believed, Alan Duncan approached Vote Leave offering to be their chair.

    He was told to jog on.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    Third. And 93rd.

    Sorry I was 93rd. You were a fairly dismal 94th.

    One day I am going to come close in one of these competitions. But it was not this day.
    Not so. You have to take off the top title line. Congratulations on making the top 92. It'd matter if it was football.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

    Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes

    A punishment worse than death.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    welshowl said:

    Is it my iPhone or is it the thread? It doesn't like loading it one little bit. Takes yonks.

    Get a phone with a decent amount of RAM. Mine has 6GB. Eevn the most modern Iphones only have 2GB

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,560
    Pong said:

    How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

    Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

    Must be the most unpredictable debate in history. Normally, it is expected that there will be a draw. Seems unlikely in this case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes

    A punishment worse than death.
    Poor omelette!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html

    There is a bit in the Mail today about Balls just happening to be caught on camera being a gentleman.

    Call me a cynic over all of this....
    He has clearly got an eye on the Portillo route for the next stage of his career
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    SimonStClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Congratulations too to Alex, John Loony and Mike K on their forecasting skills!

    Seconded - well done to all concerned.
    Yes, well done all
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html

    There is a bit in the Mail today about Balls just happening to be caught on camera being a gentleman.

    Call me a cynic over all of this....
    He has clearly got an eye on the Portillo route for the next stage of his career
    Well Chairman of Norwich isn't going very well....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting excerpts from the Oliver book. "Who knew that Boris texted the PM to reassure him that the Out campaign would be “crushed like the toad beneath the harrow” — and then nine minutes later declared for Leave?" "May and Philip Hammond torpedoed the “emergency brake” on migration that might have swung the referendum for fear of upsetting Angela Merkel — causing Mr Cameron to dismiss them as “lily-livered”

    Most amusing though is this Alan Duncan story "As Hamlet has its gravedigger and Macbeth its drunken night porter, so too Oliver offers comic relief in the form of a press release that nice little orange Alan Duncan drafted to announce his support for Remain. “To have won over such a senior and experienced political figure will be seen as a significant coup,” Alan Duncan wrote about Alan Duncan. “All the more so as Alan Duncan is seen as independent-minded and someone who cannot be pushed around.”
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-the-tories-brexit-gaffes-are-enough-to-make-you-sick-a3354101.html

    If Cummings is to be believed, Alan Duncan approached Vote Leave offering to be their chair.

    He was told to jog on.
    Alan Duncan or Gisela Stewart, not a difficult choice considering their target demographic!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pong said:

    How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

    Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

    Massively. This is the last chance to make money.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    Btw - well done to those who came close in the comp. I don't recall entering, which probably explains why I didn't win. ;)

    However, I did point out - inbetween the eagle flying off and the Yougov landing - that Corbyn was value @ evens.

    Well done to whoever took the thousands available @ between 1.9-2.0.

    Enjoy yer winnings.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    SeanT said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    There is clearly something deeply personal going on regarding Brexit to AM, possibly involving an association with an individual - who might have either actually declared for Brexit, or would be representative of a typical Brexit supporter - who gravely wronged him in the past.

    So I think it's best not to engage him on the subject.
    My
    I can sympathise, but I don't concur.

    Britain is still part of European civilisation, just as she was before we joined. We have merely exited a badly designed and rather dysfunctional quasi-political union.

    But we do need to make sure we fully engage with the rest of the world, once we're out. Free Movement with the Old Commonwealth should be the first move. Let the Aussies come.
    A big part of the pitch of Brexit was stepping out into the world, and no longer being constrained by the EU. From the UK's perspective, I think it was a geopolitical outlook that had its day.

    However, I do think any future agreements that may be struck on free movement need to be very carefully drafted, with emergency breaks/thresholds included and sunset clauses built in - e.g. it could require rollover/renewal every 5 years, which would normally be a formality.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,571
    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MikeSmithson said:

    welshowl said:

    Is it my iPhone or is it the thread? It doesn't like loading it one little bit. Takes yonks.

    Get a phone with a decent amount of RAM. Mine has 6GB. Eevn the most modern Iphones only have 2GB

    Thanks - but it's what work dishes out so beggars and choosers and all that. Thread loading seems a bit better now though.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Mortimer said:

    Congrats to the winners - and more particularly to MikeK. Quite a performance; I wonder if 102 might be closer in 2020...

    LOL :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    CH4 saying the moderator tonight will be in own words a not a pot plant but a participator...basically Team Clinton have been wanting him to call out lies by Trump.

    Surely it is on the candidates to call out each other if they tell porkies?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Walker, sleep properly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    ICYMI, this is hillarious!

    http://tinyurl.com/hch322m
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Gardenwalker said:

    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?

    Go to bed now and you will not lose out on sleep and still be fine for your interview. I am aiming to head to bed around 9pm, wake up for 2am and then go back to sleep once the debate ends about 4am
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,927
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes

    A punishment worse than death.
    Yes, the Grand Hotel de Cap Ferrat is much nicer.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Now getting back to one important strand of todays world politics:
    https://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/780472485850521600
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html

    There is a bit in the Mail today about Balls just happening to be caught on camera being a gentleman.

    Call me a cynic over all of this....
    He has clearly got an eye on the Portillo route for the next stage of his career
    Well Chairman of Norwich isn't going very well....
    Perhaps he could do a double act with Delia Smith!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Gardenwalker said:

    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?

    Get a proper sleep.

    Your own life is far more important.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html

    There is a bit in the Mail today about Balls just happening to be caught on camera being a gentleman.

    Call me a cynic over all of this....
    He has clearly got an eye on the Portillo route for the next stage of his career
    Well Chairman of Norwich isn't going very well....
    Perhaps he could do a double act with Delia Smith!
    LETTTTTTTTSSSSS BE 'AVVVVVING YOOOOOOU....
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pong said:

    How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

    Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

    A couple of good polls for Trump overnight had him the probable winner (55-45) with 538. A couple of more recent polls have had it swing back to Clinton.

    Breitbart is reporting a tied in Minnesota, Clinton +3 Pennsylvania and +1 in North Carolina.

    One feature of 538 methodology is that there will be the largest swings when both candidates are neck and neck.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,571
    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?

    Go to bed now and you will not lose out on sleep and still be fine for your interview. I am aiming to head to bed around 9pm, wake up for 2am and then go back to sleep once the debate ends about 4am
    I admire your ability to fall asleep at will!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    SeanT said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Brexit won because it won over centrists like Stodge, DavidL, Digby Jones, David Owen and John Cleese, as well as more traditional eurosceptics, most of whom had been on a journey themselves.

    It was a broad coalition, and I think those who lump all Brexit voters into the same box are revealing more about their own prejudices than anyone else's.

    Meeks' descent into hysterical petulance is really rather sad. I presume his personal travails are getting to him (though he was acting like a tit before that).

    I hope normal service is resumed shortly. It is odd how badly and weirdly some have reacted to Brexit. They're like Mohammedans confronted with heresy.
    There is clearly something deeply personal going on regarding Brexit to AM, possibly involving an association with an individual - who might have either actually declared for Brexit, or would be representative of a typical Brexit supporter - who gravely wronged him in the past.

    So I think it's best not to engage him on the subject.
    My take is simply that he enjoys the feeling of being European and having a stake in its full breadth and rich cultural tapestry.

    Brexit feels like a rejection of all that; a retreat.

    Certainly that's how I feel; it's an emotional reflex rather than a rational one (although I believe Leaving to also be irrational).
    I can sympathise, but I don't concur.

    Britain is still part of European civilisation, just as she was before we joined. We have merely exited a badly designed and rather dysfunctional quasi-political union.

    But we do need to make sure we fully engage with the rest of the world, once we're out. Free Movement with the Old Commonwealth should be the first move. Let the Aussies come.
    Indeed, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway are all still part of Europe even if outside the EU. I agree it is also farcical we have had free movement from Poland and Bulgaria (however hard working many Eastern Europeans are) but not Australia, New Zealand and Canada
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Gardenwalker said:

    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?

    I would record it, have a spoiler-free day and watch it after the interview.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Jon Snow - "The deficit won't be paid off"...FFS....you don't pay off a deficit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamesTapsfield: Corbyn has cancelled his broadcast round of interviews tomorrow. Diary issues apparently
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @JamesTapsfield: Corbyn has cancelled his broadcast round of interviews tomorrow. Diary issues apparently

    Breakfast meeting with Maomentum more important? Or just sticking to policy of not talking to bias media like BBC or Guardian, and only to truthful outlets like Morning Star / Press TV.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Gardenwalker said:

    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?

    Six hours until 04:30 alarm for me - night night all, see you for the debate!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Jesus Christ Jon Snow...."You (Labour) are one of the only socialist parties in the ascendancy across Europe"....which bit of lowest polling for donkeys years and 15%+ behind the Tories = ascendancy?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CH4 saying the moderator tonight will be in own words a not a pot plant but a participator...basically Team Clinton have been wanting him to call out lies by Trump.

    Surely it is on the candidates to call out each other if they tell porkies?

    Both are seen as liars by the electorate. Having a moderator call someone out as a liar is deemed better than having your liar call their liar out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited September 2016
    Gardenwalker said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Job interview tomorrow.

    Stay up all night with popcorn supplies, or get a proper sleep and catch the jist in the morning?

    Go to bed now and you will not lose out on sleep and still be fine for your interview. I am aiming to head to bed around 9pm, wake up for 2am and then go back to sleep once the debate ends about 4am
    I admire your ability to fall asleep at will!
    As long as I am in bed and it is dark (as it already is now) I am normally able to nod off
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Urquhart, pay attention. Jon Snow knows nothing. Everyone knows that.

    Mr. Walker, aye, I'm not an easy sleeper either. If you take that approach, I'd probably just stay up from 4am.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting interview with Ed Balls too in which it is alleged he was seen crying in the street after his election defeat, how he ended up sharing an omelette with Steohen Fry and Emma Thompson in the Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc in Cap d’Antibes and how he ate Gordon Brown's oysters
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/interview-former-mp-ed-balls-on-strictly-theresa-may-and-why-labour-has-lost-the-plot-a3354121.html

    There is a bit in the Mail today about Balls just happening to be caught on camera being a gentleman.

    Call me a cynic over all of this....
    He has clearly got an eye on the Portillo route for the next stage of his career
    Well Chairman of Norwich isn't going very well....
    Perhaps he could do a double act with Delia Smith!
    LETTTTTTTTSSSSS BE 'AVVVVVING YOOOOOOU....
    Something like that I'm sure
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:


    snip
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-the-tories-brexit-gaffes-are-enough-to-make-you-sick-a3354101.html

    Thanks but I was more moved by these words in that column about Springsteen "In a spoken preamble to a live performances of his song, The River, he describes how his father fought him over his long hair, saying that the army would make a man of him. Then he was drafted for Vietnam. “I remember coming home after I’d been gone for three days and walking in the kitchen and my mother and father were sitting there and my dad said, ‘Where you been?’ and I said, ‘I went to take my physical’. He said, ‘What happened?’ I said, ‘They didn’t take me’. And he said, ‘That’s good’.” And then he goes into the song. God it breaks your heart."

    I went to a funeral of a friend's father today. The River by Springsteen is a great favourite.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    How much will tonight's debate shift the odds?

    Betfair is surprisingly twitchy.

    Massively. This is the last chance to make money.
    I'm hoping there will be many more chances when the ECV markets get going properly.

    Out of interest, are any PB'ers backing Clinton right now?

    @JackW ?

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jesus Christ Jon Snow...."You (Labour) are one of the only socialist parties in the ascendancy across Europe"....which bit of lowest polling for donkeys years and 15%+ behind the Tories = ascendancy?

    Sounds like Mr Snow has been spending too much time in the States. "one of the only"? In English, isn't it "one of the few"? Even after 25 years in this county, hearing 'one of the only' used in that context sets my hackles up.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    Congratulations to the winners.

    Time now for the weekly update of my average tracking poll.

    Hillary 46.5 +1
    Trump 43 -1

    Hillary has now recovered completely from her collapse of late August.
    Movements since the first update:

    Hillary 46.5 45.5 44.5 45 46 46.5 46.5 47 44.5
    Trump 43 44 43 42 42 41 40.5 41 42.5

    Basically they are both at their convention highs, which translates into a comfy Hillary lead since she had the biggest convention bounce.

    Though in 538, it is getting narrower. Colorado is more in the blue region.
    I'd rather be in HRC's situation with CO and NH than Trump's with FL and OH.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Bloomberg has announced it will be the first television network to conduct live on-screen fact checks of the candidates' statements during the debate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    I thought it starts 2am UK time?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Trump moves into position:
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/780473213696483328
This discussion has been closed.