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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to Corbyn on his victory and to YouGov for getting another leadership election spot on
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Go Jezza!!!!!0
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Second like Owen Who0
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Return of the Red Liberals?0
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Couldn't the PLP "bond" over an "away day" making Jam?0
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So, where's the market on the first Labour MP to resign the whip?
John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis the favourites?0 -
From https://www.loonyparty.com/about/policy-proposals/
"We shall keep the Falklands and Give Jeremy Corbyn to the Argentinians."0 -
YouGov very impressive. Shows Labour Members do not lie to pollsters or change their mind0
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Today's headline:
"SMITH SAVES CORBYN."
Yougov is annoyingly much better at Labour leadership elections than General Elections or Referendums.0 -
I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.nunu said:
Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.Sandpit said:Second like Owen Who
I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.
Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.0 -
Surely the most important sub figure is that full members voted Corbyn 60-40.
Whether we like it or not the parliamentary party are not reflective of their own membership?0 -
Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%0
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Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice0
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That is something to be written on PB by Don Brind on the inside of the Smith campaign.JosiasJessop said:
I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.nunu said:
Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.Sandpit said:Second like Owen Who
I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.
Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
Don't forget the "IT'S STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL" matra.0 -
Malmesbury said:
From https://www.loonyparty.com/about/policy-proposals/
"We shall keep the Falklands and Give Jeremy Corbyn to the Argentinians."
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https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/779579262923841536
Clearly focused on winning the votes of supporters of both candidates in the Manchester Mayoral race0 -
It's clear that Corbyn is in place until he chooses to resign on falls off his perch. I'm not even sure a loss of half his MPs in the 2020 election will be enough to make him resign voluntarily, unless he can find a way in the meantime of having the membership nominate his successor!HYUFD said:Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
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Angela Eagle would have got over 40% IMO, maybe 45%.0
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Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.HYUFD said:Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
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Devastating outcome for Labour, happy news for the Conservatives, UKIP, Lib Dems, SNP etc.
Smith wasn't the answer for Labour but it would have removed Corbyn, allowed a change to the rules to make it easier to boot out future leaders and possibly killed off momentum by them leaving the party now that their messiah was gone.
Now you are going to get more years if infighting and Corbyn taking the party further left and becoming less electable with each passing month.0 -
Because people lie about voting Tory (they say they won't when they do) and Labour voters (not members) say they will (vote Labour) and don't.Speedy said:
Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?HYUFD said:Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
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This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
Paul Waugh on Twitter:
"@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members
Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh0 -
On other news, I missed the news that Ted Cruz has endorsed Trump, probably won't do much difference to Trump though.0
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He was trying to win over labour members, not the political betting commentariat. A large chunk of those joined to support Corbyn. You're not going to win them over by disagreeing with Corbyn, by and large.JosiasJessop said:
I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.nunu said:
Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.Sandpit said:Second like Owen Who
I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.
Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
Staking out clear centrist ground might have worked if the NEC hadn't changed the registered supporters rules, because then a challenger might have aimed to bring in moderates to vote. But with the price put up and a short registration period, that strategy went out of the window.0 -
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8.6 the Labour majority on Betfair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
That's the same odds as were on NOM on the morning of the last election!
1.72 the Conservative majority looks like value.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27456523/market?marketId=1.1190407080 -
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
YouGov's average LEAVE %age for the period after postal voting started to election day was 49%.Speedy said:
Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?HYUFD said:Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
I believe that extensive postal voting making election polls less accurate. Most EURef postal voters would have cast ballots about June 2/3rd. So by the eve of poll a question of what postal voters did was about something that happened 3 weeks earlier adding to possibility of inaccuracy.
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What an annoying result for people on over 62.5 !0
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Perfect
Gerry Adams
Well done Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
I also think Labour have a chance. Corbyn's biggest weakness is that he couldn't organise a organic beer party in a right-on brewery. That will be the biggest reason for losing the 2020 election.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
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As he's teetotal he wouldn't even make the attempt.Dixie said:
I also think Labour have a chance. Corbyn's biggest weakness is that he couldn't organise a organic beer party in a right-on brewery. That will be the biggest reason for losing the 2020 election.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
That could be a metaphor for his whole leadership.0 -
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.0 -
The Labour Leadership election was going on for a long time before and after the yougov poll.MikeSmithson said:
YouGov's average LEAVE %age for the period after postal voting started to election day was 49%.Speedy said:
Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?HYUFD said:Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
I believe that extensive postal voting making election polls less accurate. Most EURef postal voters would have cast ballots about June 2/3rd. So by the eve of poll a question of what postal voters did was about something that happened 3 weeks earlier adding to possibility of inaccuracy.0 -
Not a huge difference between the three categories, especiaslly as 50K of the registered supporters are in fact members (they were in the group of recent members excluded unless they coughed up £25).
Lots of "let's work together" interviews running from both sides on BBC2 - I think the message has got through and the mood is clearly to try to make it work: both people who wanted a new party and people who wanted massive deselections are going against the flow.0 -
Normally I would agree with you.numbertwelve said:
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.
Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.0 -
Oh sugar.0
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You screw up your vote when it would have made a difference, then lose when you do get your vote in. Nae luck.
https://twitter.com/mclaverock/status/7796401198379827200 -
His pacifist nature is fatal for him imo when it comes to a GE. People won't vote for someone who in situations which may unrealistically but not impossibly happen won't protect their loved ones.numbertwelve said:
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.0 -
The result is great news for the LDs, they should aim for 15% at the next election.0
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May will be more worried about Diane James' UKIP at the next general election than Corbyn/McDonnell's Labour, especially as at least some concessions will likely be made in Brexit negotiations even if it does lean more towards hard BrexitJosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
He wasn't even the future once.GIN1138 said:
Chin up Labour, in England you are still the only viable non-Tory option, you will survive. And with survival, a chance. Eventually.0 -
Has Lord Faulkner resigned yet?0
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I don’t really think so.AndyJS said:Angela Eagle would have got over 40% IMO, maybe 45%.
Both Angela Eagle and Owen Smith were dreadful candidates.
We now know more about Owen’s shortcomings because he spent the Summer displaying them to us. But, Angela was just as limited & dreadful.
Corbyn could have been challenged much more effectively once he had a reasonable chance to show what he could do. Challenging after a year was another terrible mistake.
I am pleased Corby won, because he was the better candidate, and because he deserves 2 to 3 years to show what he can do.
The worst thing about the election was the blatant gerrymandering. The exclusion of Labour supporters after the arbitrary deadline of January 12th was just ridiculously partisan, and for that Iain MacNicol should lose his job.
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I was on 45-50 Yes in the IndyRef. It was 44.7%.Pulpstar said:What an annoying result for people on over 62.5 !
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Talk that Corbyn will "wipe the slate clean".
With his enemies' blood....0 -
They did in 2001, 2005 and 2010 and indyref reasonably well, it was only 2015 and EU ref they came unstuck but even then they had some polls giving Tory and Leave leadsSpeedy said:
Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?HYUFD said:Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
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Which shows how much bigger still Corbyn's majority was amonst everyone else.HYUFD said:0 -
I have had the few strong Labour types I know here in the Tory shires indicate that is his biggest problem. That on pacifism he doesn't live in the real world, where you need to acknowledge you might need to do these things at some point.jonny83 said:
His pacifist nature is fatal for him imo when it comes to a GE. People won't vote for someone who in situations which may unrealistically but not impossibly happen won't protect their loved ones.numbertwelve said:
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.0 -
Yes, he looks set to remain leader for the remainder of the ParliamentSandpit said:
It's clear that Corbyn is in place until he chooses to resign on falls off his perch. I'm not even sure a loss of half his MPs in the 2020 election will be enough to make him resign voluntarily, unless he can find a way in the meantime of having the membership nominate his successor!HYUFD said:Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
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Nobody was going to beat Corbyn, not in the political climate that the party is in right now with its trot takeover. A true blairite wanting to put the party in the centre-left ground would have probably got even less than Smith.0
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Ha! Yes, He would lambast all around him saying organization is akin to having a successful drinks party in a brewery, which he is against, so, disorganization is the only,moral route!ydoethur said:
As he's teetotal he wouldn't even make the attempt.Dixie said:
I also think Labour have a chance. Corbyn's biggest weakness is that he couldn't organise a organic beer party in a right-on brewery. That will be the biggest reason for losing the 2020 election.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
That could be a metaphor for his whole leadership.0 -
What is it about their approach which would make it better at collecting the opinions of political obsessives rather than the general public at large...Speedy said:Today's headline:
"SMITH SAVES CORBYN."
Yougov is annoyingly much better at Labour leadership elections than General Elections or Referendums.0 -
Labour will likely get 25% regardless but they now have to look not only at the Tories in front of them but UKIP behind them tooDixie said:
Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.HYUFD said:Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
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Surely too soon to tell how things will go? In the immediate aftermath if the opponents of Corbyn were not prepared to flounce off, which obviously they were not, then they would have to say they would come together, and unless he was intending to spark continued defiance, which he doesn't need as he is control, Corbyn would say the same to avoid provoking more confrontation.NickPalmer said:Not a huge difference between the three categories, especiaslly as 50K of the registered supporters are in fact members (they were in the group of recent members excluded unless they coughed up £25).
Lots of "let's work together" interviews running from both sides on BBC2 - I think the message has got through and the mood is clearly to try to make it work: both people who wanted a new party and people who wanted massive deselections are going against the flow.
None of which speaks as to whether it will be made to work moving forward - they said they;d work together before, then said it wasn;t working.0 -
62% Ha!
Let thewar,deselections,blood lettingcoming together in unity begin 0 -
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
Which demonstrates how much larger still was Corbyn's majority amongst everyone else.AndyJS said:Paul Waugh on Twitter:
"@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members
Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh0 -
Especially registered supportersDavid_Evershed said:
Which shows how much bigger still Corbyn's majority was amonst everyone else.HYUFD said:0 -
I've switched over to the football, but I briefly heard McDonnell saying that there will be no compulsory reselections but if the horrible Tories force through the unfair boundary changes then there's nothing he and Jezza can do about it.0
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OOH
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.
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So, Owen Smith didn’t even carry Wales !David_Evershed said:
Which demonstrates how much larger still was Corbyn's majority amongst everyone else.AndyJS said:Paul Waugh on Twitter:
"@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members
Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh0 -
Not sure, I know that Cities of London & Westminster is now in the list, because Bloomsbury is proposed to be added to the constituency.PlatoSaid said:
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
Dixie said:
Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.HYUFD said:Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
Lib Dems had the teachers voting for them until the coalition froze their salaries.
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Everything I have seen from him in regards to foreign policy, defense and security should be a clear turn off to voters imo. In fact I don't think it's unfair to suggest that he's a dangerous individual that would make the UK a far less safer place.kle4 said:
I have had the few strong Labour types I know here in the Tory shires indicate that is his biggest problem. That on pacifism he doesn't live in the real world, where you need to acknowledge you might need to do these things at some point.jonny83 said:
His pacifist nature is fatal for him imo when it comes to a GE. People won't vote for someone who in situations which may unrealistically but not impossibly happen won't protect their loved ones.numbertwelve said:
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.0 -
I presume Ken Livingstone is lined up for the media rebuttals?Scrapheap_as_was said:OOH
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.0 -
Who is more likely to win Basingstoke off the Tories in 2020, James' UKIP or Corbyn's Labour? That is the most worrying thing for Labour nowPlatoSaid said:
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
That's a bit optimistic. Let's start with Nuneaton and take it from there.PlatoSaid said:
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
McDonnell giving a very solid performance on BBC2.0
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What has happened is that parties were run by people who felt it was their duty to civilise the great unwashed not reflect their views.ydoethur said:
Normally I would agree with you.numbertwelve said:
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.
Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.
The great unwashed put up with it while their lives improved materially but when their living standards stagnated while the elite got ever richer they started to call bullshit.0 -
Things have become interesting. I am just wondering about the day I heard the news that Corbyn had got onto the ballot. I hadn't heard his name for years and was surprised that he was still around and that the left were even troubling to contest the election. If he had failed to get his papers in on time where would all his supporters be now? Would they all be signing up to the Greens or the Lib Dems? Or would there be a new party along the lines of Podemos holding its first conference?ydoethur said:
Normally I would agree with you.numbertwelve said:
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.
Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.
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LOL! So there's no deselections unless the Evil Tories make us do it. Riiggghhhhtttttt!!!tlg86 said:I've switched over to the football, but I briefly heard McDonnell saying that there will be no compulsory reselections but if the horrible Tories force through the unfair boundary changes then there's nothing he and Jezza can do about it.
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Basingstoke is more likely to have a Democratic Unionist MP than a Labour MPPlatoSaid said:
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.0 -
I understand that. But go back a year, and see what Conservatives and even some Labourites were saying about Corbyn's survival chances. He's not only survived, he's come out stronger.AndyJS said:
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.JosiasJessop said:This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
I can hardly believe I'm saying this: but his survival instincts deserve respects. Perhaps the Conservatives should stop treating him as an unelectable joke and as someone who is a gritty campaigner who might be able to get a surprise.
May's start hasn't exactly bee sure-footed, and she has the perils of Brexit to deal with, yet alone the unknown unknowns. The Conservatives should not be complacent, at least IMO.0 -
Probably a lordScrapheap_as_was said:OOH
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.
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The pair of them should be floating along on a sea of confidence right now. Well done them if they can avoid smugness.NickPalmer said:McDonnell giving a very solid performance on BBC2.
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Galloway rumoured to be back in the fold too nowwilliamglenn said:
I presume Ken Livingstone is lined up for the media rebuttals?Scrapheap_as_was said:OOH
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.0 -
So sad.0
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Probably. Not as much fun when they do it, to be honest.Slackbladder said:
Probably a lordScrapheap_as_was said:OOH
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.0 -
Teachers voted Tory in 2010.David_Evershed said:Dixie said:
Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.HYUFD said:Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
Lib Dems had the teachers voting for them until the coalition froze their salaries.
We naively believed Gove would finally hammer the DFES and set us free to teach.
Unfortunately, we underestimated his ambition, his lack of character and his arrogance.
We all make mistakes.
In fairness, however, that was a minor cock-up compared to what Labour, twice, and the Republicans have done in the last thirteen months.0 -
Corbyn's re-election is a tragedy for the Labour Party and for Britain.
I think my wife got it spot on this morning when she said,"this is the birth of a British Nazi Party". When you think of it, with increasing anti-semitism, an extra parliamentary group of street protestors and possibly fighters in Momentum, supporting The Leader, and a policy to make the UK feeble - but only while the Tories govern the country.
The National Socialist German Workers Party also started as a labour movement. Look how that turned out0 -
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Hahahahaha....in your dreams boyo.......HYUFD said:0 -
Now is the time to Unite the party, in the Len McCluskey sense.HYUFD said:0 -
"MP" is only a small subset of "Parliamentarian", unfortunately.Scrapheap_as_was said:OOH
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.
Most likely a Lord, or an MEP or some 'list' member of Eu/Scot/Wales parliaments, who'll just be replaced by another lab member.0 -
Such a shame that would be for MCDonnell.tlg86 said:I've switched over to the football, but I briefly heard McDonnell saying that there will be no compulsory reselections but if the horrible Tories force through the unfair boundary changes then there's nothing he and Jezza can do about it.
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Anticipating the oncoming leadership challenge from the charismatic Alex Rowley and much loved Anas Sarwar, no doubt.Theuniondivvie said:You screw up your vote when it would have made a difference, then lose when you do get your vote in. Nae luck.
https://twitter.com/mclaverock/status/7796401198379827200 -
WTF, Owen Thingy won with under 25s....I thought most Corbynistas were old Trots and naive idealistic youngsters?0
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I know I can be old-fashioned, but I'd rather politicians stand on what they believe in and try to persuade the electorate to their views. Like or loathe him, that's what Corbyn's doing.William_H said:
He was trying to win over labour members, not the political betting commentariat. A large chunk of those joined to support Corbyn. You're not going to win them over by disagreeing with Corbyn, by and large.JosiasJessop said:
I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.nunu said:
Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.Sandpit said:Second like Owen Who
I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.
Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
Staking out clear centrist ground might have worked if the NEC hadn't changed the registered supporters rules, because then a challenger might have aimed to bring in moderates to vote. But with the price put up and a short registration period, that strategy went out of the window.
It might appeal to many people who don't look to deeply into the policies.0 -
Who've been the last 10 floor crossers?
Quentin and Sean spring to mind0 -
Robert Peston: Lab MPs now face choice of becoming Trappists or setting fire to their pants, following @jeremycorbyn landslide.0
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Our 200-1 bets on Ed to be next leader are still alive!HYUFD said:0
