Corbyn's re-election is a tragedy for the Labour Party and for Britain.
I think my wife got it spot on this morning when she said,"this is the birth of a British Nazi Party". When you think of it, with increasing anti-semitism, an extra parliamentary group of street protestors and possibly fighters in Momentum, supporting The Leader, and a policy to make the UK feeble - but only while the Tories govern the country.
The National Socialist German Workers Party also started as a labour movement. Look how that turned out
This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
I hope you're right. But politics over the last 18 months has hardly been ordinary, and the public might not be acting in accordance with old habits. That may be to Corbyn's advantage or disadvantage.
With the establishment and the press so Tory, we are now a one party state. Sad times...
This isn't Japan, one party will not be able to be dominant forevermore. The Labour floor remains high (in England) and the Tory ceiling has been reached.
Miss Plato, not all of it. The PLP deserve a lot for not understanding their own bloody rules. Their role in 2015 was to act as gatekeepers so only decent candidates they could imagine as leaders made their shortlist.
That doesn't make sense Owen! He won decisively before and you guys said he was useless and could not lead Labuor to power, how has he proven less useless now?!
Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.
Labour will likely get 25% regardless but they now have to look not only at the Tories in front of them but UKIP behind them too
Clearly not all people vote on personalities. Some still vote on what the party stands for.
Angela Eagle would have got over 40% IMO, maybe 45%.
The brothers won't vote for a woman, it seems. Even the reactionaries of UKIP can elect a woman leader, as can the nationalists, and the Tories have now given us two woman prime ministers, but in the Labour Party the glass ceiling is set at deputy leader.
Miss Plato, not all of it. The PLP deserve a lot for not understanding their own bloody rules. Their role in 2015 was to act as gatekeepers so only decent candidates they could imagine as leaders made their shortlist.
I don't think they've suffered enough yet. McDonnell taking over after 2020 will be the next stage in their punishment.
Miss Plato, not all of it. The PLP deserve a lot for not understanding their own bloody rules. Their role in 2015 was to act as gatekeepers so only decent candidates they could imagine as leaders made their shortlist.
I suspect had Smith won there would have been changes made the rules to make it easier for them in the future to remove their leaders (and Smith would have been the one driving that).
This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
Labour also have the simultaneous problem of trying to win seats like Glasgow North East.
What a complete idiot this man is. By challenging Corbyn in such a way, Smith only made him stronger and showed himself up to be the Berk he is.
It wasn't just Smith who decided to challenge, and the plotters were driven by the threat of an early election. It also wasn't a certainty that the challenge would fail, as shown by the betting odds at the time. You don't always win, but you'll never win unless you try.
Indeed, it's a very good list, bookmarked whenever was the last time someone mentioned the history of defections on here!
Have to go back to Reg Prentice in 1977 (a month before I was born) to see the last defection from Labour to Conservative. Is it a sneaking suspicion, or just wishful thinking, that we'll have one turn up next week?
With the establishment and the press so Tory, we are now a one party state. Sad times...
This isn't Japan, one party will not be able to be dominant forevermore. The Labour floor remains high (in England) and the Tory ceiling has been reached.
Japan didn't have a single eternal party of government either, until it did.
Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.
Labour will likely get 25% regardless but they now have to look not only at the Tories in front of them but UKIP behind them too
Clearly not all people vote on personalities. Some still vote on what the party stands for.
With the establishment and the press so Tory, we are now a one party state. Sad times...
This isn't Japan, one party will not be able to be dominant forevermore. The Labour floor remains high (in England) and the Tory ceiling has been reached.
Japan didn't have a single eternal party of government either, until it did.
What is the path to the Tories being dominant forever? They aren't beloved, they will oversee some real crap which hits them eventually, and while I don't like many of his views, the biggest problem with Corbyn has been his lack of competence, and those that follow him will not necessarily be incompetent. Opportunities for Labour will emerge, though how soon will depend on luck. Scottish independence would be a good start for them.
That doesn't make sense Owen! He won decisively before and you guys said he was useless and could not lead Labuor to power, how has he proven less useless now?!
Our 200-1 bets on Ed to be next leader are still alive!
Ed is far too rightwing for the present Labour membership and registered supporters, they want the fight the next election on a hard left platform and now almost certainly will!
Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.
Labour will likely get 25% regardless but they now have to look not only at the Tories in front of them but UKIP behind them too
Clearly not all people vote on personalities. Some still vote on what the party stands for.
I think that's fair. A decent proportion of the Labour rump will be people like tribal loyalty voters and poorer ethnic minorities who feel they have nowhere else to go, but the greater part of it will be those who are genuinely interested in a radical left option, or at least willing to give it a hearing. A significant constituency, but not nearly enough to carry a General Election.
Our 200-1 bets on Ed to be next leader are still alive!
Ed is far too rightwing for the present Labour membership and registered supporters, they want the fight the next election on a hard left platform and now almost certainly will!
That doesn't make sense Owen! He won decisively before and you guys said he was useless and could not lead Labuor to power, how has he proven less useless now?!
Fantastic result for Corbyn. In order to unite the party a purge of the unfaithful is required.
With any luck I will never see another Labour government in my lifetime.
We can but hope. Also new from the loony Left, Paul Mason in the New Statesman:
"The Labour activists pledging to rerun the coup as an annual outing until the party is destroyed are playing with fire. If there is no viable Labour Party, the space will be open for plebeian racism and xenophobia."
Some of these people hate the lower orders so very, very much, don't they?
Well done to Jeremy Corbyn on his re-elction as party leader.
They say all political careers end in failure, for some it never starts. Owen Smith’s 15 minutes of fame* is over and I very much doubt the shadow front bench awaits him.
He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
Well done to Jeremy Corbyn on his re-elction as party leader.
They say all political careers end in failure, for some it never starts. Owen Smith’s 15 minutes of fame* is over and I very much doubt the shadow front bench awaits him.
Well done to Jeremy Corbyn on his re-elction as party leader.
They say all political careers end in failure, for some it never starts. Owen Smith’s 15 minutes of fame* is over and I very much doubt the shadow front bench awaits him.
He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
Labour members are not representative of Labour voters. WWC voters in the north are more patriotic and Leaver. One day they'll sit on their hands.
I voted Labour when Michael Foot was leader. I can look back with nostalgia on dear old Worzel now. At least he was bright and reasonably patriotic even if unelectable.
A thirty year Tory Reich beckons but hopefully, it will be a one-nation one.
I voted Labour when Michael Foot was leader. I can look back with nostalgia on dear old Worzel now. At least he was bright and reasonably patriotic even if unelectable.
A thirty year Tory Reich beckons but hopefully, it will be a one-nation one.
An unfortunate way of putting it given Schickelgruber's obsession with an Aryan Volksgemeinschaft.
With the establishment and the press so Tory, we are now a one party state. Sad times...
This isn't Japan, one party will not be able to be dominant forevermore. The Labour floor remains high (in England) and the Tory ceiling has been reached.
Japan didn't have a single eternal party of government either, until it did.
Indeed. More usually, politics abhors a vacuum, and there's now a bloody big one between the Conservatives and Labour.
Theresa May, Tim Farron and Diane James will all be very happy bunnies today.
YouGov were bronze medallists in the EU Referendum prediction contest, behind TNS and ICM, and not all that far adrift either.
The most recent YouGov VI poll (from 14 September) has the Con/Lab split at 38:31. On 14 September 2011, the same company recorded 37:41. And much good such buoyant figures did Ed Miliband.
Come 2020, Corbyn is probably going to need about 37-38% to cobble together an anti-Tory coalition, and somewhere in the low 40s for a majority. Not going to happen.
With the establishment and the press so Tory, we are now a one party state. Sad times...
This isn't Japan, one party will not be able to be dominant forevermore. The Labour floor remains high (in England) and the Tory ceiling has been reached.
Japan didn't have a single eternal party of government either, until it did.
What is the path to the Tories being dominant forever? They aren't beloved, they will oversee some real crap which hits them eventually, and while I don't like many of his views, the biggest problem with Corbyn has been his lack of competence, and those that follow him will not necessarily be incompetent. Opportunities for Labour will emerge, though how soon will depend on luck. Scottish independence would be a good start for them.
The path is that the left schisms between LibDem, Green and two different Labour factions, while the Tories stay together but work out a way of alternating between different factions while in government.
I'm not saying that's inevitable, but for Labour to get back into government they need to compromise with the voters, which is an increasingly long way off because members who don't want to do that are joining, while members who do are leaving.
Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
There's something to be said for having a panel filled with people more engaged with politics than the average person on the street.
He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
Labour members are not representative of Labour voters. WWC voters in the north are more patriotic and Leaver. One day they'll sit on their hands.
I don't think so, Jez is old Labour. I think he is the best hope of reconnecting the party with their traditional voters, but at the rist of pushing metropolitan hand wringers/do gooders towards the Lib Dems.
As others have mentioned, I think Corbyn's pacifism will what blocks him in an election. But he has time to change, and I sense McDonnell, who has Corbyns ear, is in it to win it. Drop the focus on things like Trident or anti west imperialism etc, and he has a (small) chance. Already he's taken to wearing proper suits, improved his presentation slightly, he can beat May at PMQs. Who'd have thought the UK would vote for Brexit, or that the USA would be about to vote for Trump - the old assumptions don't necessarily apply. (To be clear I'm no Corbynista and think a Tory win is still far more likely in 2020, but it's not a given - yet!)
Labour moderates should give up the fight and just boot lick or resign at this point, no more challenges, no more disunity, they have comprehensively lost twice. It's no longer their party.
He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
Labour members are not representative of Labour voters. WWC voters in the north are more patriotic and Leaver. One day they'll sit on their hands.
I don't think so, Jez is old Labour. I think he is the best hope of reconnecting the party with their traditional voters
I don't think there's any polling evidence of this happening. I'm not convinced "Old Labour" is a particularly useful framing.
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
Labour members are not representative of Labour voters. WWC voters in the north are more patriotic and Leaver. One day they'll sit on their hands.
I don't think so, Jez is old Labour. I think he is the best hope of reconnecting the party with their traditional voters, but at the rist of pushing metropolitan hand wringers/do gooders towards the Lib Dems.
Max, with respect, Jez is not old Labour. My maternal family is old Labour. They cannot stand him.
He is Islingtonite, regurgitated quinoa Labour. He is minority Labour. He is a Londoner through and through. He makes Jam. He wouldn't be spotted in a working men's club.
And most significantly, he doesn't come over as patriotic and seems to care more for policies affecting students and those on benefits than anyone else
As others have mentioned, I think Corbyn's pacifism will what blocks him in an election. But he has time to change, and I sense McDonnell, who has Corbyns ear, is in it to win it. Drop the focus on things like Trident or anti west imperialism etc, and he has a (small) chance. Already he's taken to wearing proper suits, improved his presentation slightly, he can beat May at PMQs. Who'd have thought the UK would vote for Brexit, or that the USA would be about to vote for Trump - the old assumptions don't necessarily apply. (To be clear I'm no Corbynista and think a Tory win is still far more likely in 2020, but it's not a given - yet!)
Labour moderates should give up the fight and just boot lick or resign at this point, no more challenges, no more disunity, they have comprehensively lost twice. It's no longer their party.
Agree with you on the challenges front. It would be ridiculous to challenge again this side of GE unless something huge has happened.
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
I think it would be a tough sell to Tories and many non-Tories for that to be the excuse for not carrying out the results of a referendum as promised. Apart from anything else, why would the official opposition not be marxist if we did not Brexit? What else should we not do because the opposition is marxist? (assuming it is, which I don';t think it is)
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
Now that we are going ahead with Bexit, is it any time for a responsible political party to press ahead with a Marxist as their leader?
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
I think it would be a tough sell to Tories and many non-Tories for that to be the excuse for not carrying out the results of a referendum as promised. Apart from anything else, why would the official opposition not be marxist if we did not Brexit? What else should we not do because the opposition is marxist? (assuming it is, which I don';t think it is)
Brexit will provide the conditions under which they stand a chance of winning.
He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
Labour members are not representative of Labour voters. WWC voters in the north are more patriotic and Leaver. One day they'll sit on their hands.
I don't think so, Jez is old Labour. I think he is the best hope of reconnecting the party with their traditional voters, but at the rist of pushing metropolitan hand wringers/do gooders towards the Lib Dems.
Max, with respect, Jez is not old Labour. My maternal family is old Labour. They cannot stand him.
He is Islingtonite, regurgitated quinoa Labour. He is minority Labour. He is a Londoner through and through. He makes Jam. He wouldn't be spotted in a working men's club.
And most significantly, he doesn't come over as patriotic and seems to care more for policies affecting students and those on benefits than anyone else
Quite. Labour came up from the Unions, as the party of the working man. Corbyn and his ilk show nowt but disdain for the working man, as epitomised by Thornberry and her famous comment about the England flag.
Communism was discredited with the hunger and chaos of the Soveit Union and China in the 1960s;
Socialism was discredited with the fall of the Soviet states in the late 1980s and 1991;
Social democracy was discredited by the 2007 crisis and its ongoing aftermath.
Where does the left go to find credibility? It's as though all its intellectual foxes have been shot and displayed as trophies.
Corbyn is perhaps an attempt by Labour to answer this question, but in a sense they appear to misunderstand the question. They are almost saying, 'well, many people used to be socialists and will be agin because capitalism is to blame for all our ills'. Yet in reality, it was gross over borrowing to correct capitalism - to try to increase all round living standards and asset wealth without increasing taxes - that caused it. Therefore, proposing to throw things back on the state to sort out a crisis caused at least partly by the state is intellectually incoherent and politically suicidal. But it is though nobody in Labour dare face up to the utter hollowness if their position and the difficulty in resolving it.
Or am I being too charitable, and they just want to show that they care about the poor and oppressed, and are trying to help them, so they can have a nice warm feeling about themselves? The irony of course being that in doing so, by electing a rather dim wealthy Marxist in his sixties who went to boarding school and owes his entire career and his comfortable lifestyle to family patronage, not only are they rejecting their own principles but leaving themselves much less able to do anything practical to help the people they claim to care about.
Communism was discredited with the hunger and chaos of the Soveit Union and China in the 1960s;
Socialism was discredited with the fall of the Soviet states in the late 1980s and 1991;
Social democracy was discredited by the 2007 crisis and its ongoing aftermath.
Where does the left go to find credibility? It's as though all its intellectual foxes have been shot and displayed as trophies.
Corbyn is perhaps an attempt by Labour to answer this question, but in a sense they appear to misunderstand the question. They are almost saying, 'well, many people used to be socialists and will be agin because capitalism is to blame for all our ills'. Yet in reality, it was gross over borrowing to correct capitalism - to try to increase all round living standards and asset wealth without increasing taxes - that caused it. Therefore, proposing to throw things back on the state to sort out a crisis caused at least partly by the state is intellectually incoherent and politically suicidal. But it is though nobody in Labour dare face up to the utter hollowness if their position and the difficulty in resolving it.
Or am I being too charitable, and they just want to show that they care about the poor and oppressed, and are trying to help them, so they can have a nice warm feeling about themselves? The irony of course being that in doing so, by electing a rather dim wealthy Marxist in his sixties who went to boarding school and owes his entire career and his comfortable lifestyle to family patronage, not only are they rejecting their own principles but leaving themselves much less able to do anything practical to help the people they claim to care about.
Corbyn thinks the solution to the 'what is post-neo-liberalism' question is 1970s socialism. It isn't.
I think with Corbyn it's worth remembering there are different levels of success:
Level 1 - deprive the Tories of their majority. On current boundaries, Lab need to win their 6th target seat (Morley) with a swing of 0.9%. If we take account of Sinn Fein not voting it becomes 8 gains (Thurrock 1.1%)
Level 2 - become largest party. Gain 52 seats (48 Con, 2LD, 2 SNP) - this is Cannock Chase (maj 10.5%)
Level 3 - win a majority of 1. Gain 93 seats (80 Con, 7 SNP, 3 LD, 2 Plaid, 1 Green,) This is Milton Keynes N (maj 16.9%). If you don't think Lab can win seats off the SNP then this becomes Canterbury (maj 18.4%)
Boundary changes would make each of these harder.
Level 3 is in my view almost impossible. Level 1 might well be achievable, although if the Tories are over 300 seats (on current boundaries) then i would expect them to carry on as a minority doing deals with the DUP and/or LDs.
Level 2 looks very tough to achieve. If they did get to there it would create new problems of having to do a deal with the SNP. Probably the best outcome for Lab might be something between levels 1 and 2. A weak Tory minority might become unpopular.
"Smith had a 55-45 lead over Corbyn among younger voters , a stark contrast with the perception that the Labour leader has won round the under-24s during his popular campaign of rallies across the country."
This is an oddity? Either wrong somehow, or the image of all the student idealists being Corbynista is incorrect.
Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
There's something to be said for having a panel filled with people more engaged with politics than the average person on the street.
Comments
The "Red Tories" have two choices. Surrender or die. No quarter will be given.
Can the SWP ever form a UK government, that's the question.
Now, well...
Have to go back to Reg Prentice in 1977 (a month before I was born) to see the last defection from Labour to Conservative. Is it a sneaking suspicion, or just wishful thinking, that we'll have one turn up next week?
With any luck I will never see another Labour government in my lifetime.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-wins-labour-leadership-election-disaster-party-riven-a7327406.html
"The Labour activists pledging to rerun the coup as an annual outing until the party is destroyed are playing with fire. If there is no viable Labour Party, the space will be open for plebeian racism and xenophobia."
Some of these people hate the lower orders so very, very much, don't they?
They say all political careers end in failure, for some it never starts. Owen Smith’s 15 minutes of fame* is over and I very much doubt the shadow front bench awaits him.
(* that was a bloody long 15 minutes? Ed)
I voted Labour when Michael Foot was leader. I can look back with nostalgia on dear old Worzel now. At least he was bright and reasonably patriotic even if unelectable.
A thirty year Tory Reich beckons but hopefully, it will be a one-nation one.
Theresa May, Tim Farron and Diane James will all be very happy bunnies today.
The most recent YouGov VI poll (from 14 September) has the Con/Lab split at 38:31. On 14 September 2011, the same company recorded 37:41. And much good such buoyant figures did Ed Miliband.
Come 2020, Corbyn is probably going to need about 37-38% to cobble together an anti-Tory coalition, and somewhere in the low 40s for a majority. Not going to happen.
I'm not saying that's inevitable, but for Labour to get back into government they need to compromise with the voters, which is an increasingly long way off because members who don't want to do that are joining, while members who do are leaving.
Labour moderates should give up the fight and just boot lick or resign at this point, no more challenges, no more disunity, they have comprehensively lost twice. It's no longer their party.
"An unfortunate way of putting it given Schickelgruber's obsession with an Aryan Volksgemeinschaft."
Ah yes, I'd forgotten about that.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TJNtInVktS4
He is Islingtonite, regurgitated quinoa Labour. He is minority Labour. He is a Londoner through and through. He makes Jam. He wouldn't be spotted in a working men's club.
And most significantly, he doesn't come over as patriotic and seems to care more for policies affecting students and those on benefits than anyone else
Now that we are going ahead with Bexit, is it any time for a responsible political party to press ahead with a Marxist as their leader?
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/next-labour-pm-celebrates-10th-birthday-2015070399851
Communism was discredited with the hunger and chaos of the Soveit Union and China in the 1960s;
Socialism was discredited with the fall of the Soviet states in the late 1980s and 1991;
Social democracy was discredited by the 2007 crisis and its ongoing aftermath.
Where does the left go to find credibility? It's as though all its intellectual foxes have been shot and displayed as trophies.
Corbyn is perhaps an attempt by Labour to answer this question, but in a sense they appear to misunderstand the question. They are almost saying, 'well, many people used to be socialists and will be agin because capitalism is to blame for all our ills'. Yet in reality, it was gross over borrowing to correct capitalism - to try to increase all round living standards and asset wealth without increasing taxes - that caused it. Therefore, proposing to throw things back on the state to sort out a crisis caused at least partly by the state is intellectually incoherent and politically suicidal. But it is though nobody in Labour dare face up to the utter hollowness if their position and the difficulty in resolving it.
Or am I being too charitable, and they just want to show that they care about the poor and oppressed, and are trying to help them, so they can have a nice warm feeling about themselves? The irony of course being that in doing so, by electing a rather dim wealthy Marxist in his sixties who went to boarding school and owes his entire career and his comfortable lifestyle to family patronage, not only are they rejecting their own principles but leaving themselves much less able to do anything practical to help the people they claim to care about.
Labour needs to do some deep, deep thinking.
https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/779635761121460224
Level 1 - deprive the Tories of their majority. On current boundaries, Lab need to win their 6th target seat (Morley) with a swing of 0.9%. If we take account of Sinn Fein not voting it becomes 8 gains (Thurrock 1.1%)
Level 2 - become largest party. Gain 52 seats (48 Con, 2LD, 2 SNP) - this is Cannock Chase (maj 10.5%)
Level 3 - win a majority of 1. Gain 93 seats (80 Con, 7 SNP, 3 LD, 2 Plaid, 1 Green,) This is Milton Keynes N (maj 16.9%). If you don't think Lab can win seats off the SNP then this becomes Canterbury (maj 18.4%)
Boundary changes would make each of these harder.
Level 3 is in my view almost impossible. Level 1 might well be achievable, although if the Tories are over 300 seats (on current boundaries) then i would expect them to carry on as a minority doing deals with the DUP and/or LDs.
Level 2 looks very tough to achieve. If they did get to there it would create new problems of having to do a deal with the SNP. Probably the best outcome for Lab might be something between levels 1 and 2. A weak Tory minority might become unpopular.
"Smith had a 55-45 lead over Corbyn among younger voters , a stark contrast with the perception that the Labour leader has won round the under-24s during his popular campaign of rallies across the country."
This is an oddity? Either wrong somehow, or the image of all the student idealists being Corbynista is incorrect.
Edit: that's bizarre, half the comment vanished.