politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate

Mr. Doethur, people knock Grammar Nazis, but don't forget we saved the internet in the war against the l33t-speakers.

On-topic: May's strategy of just standing there whilst her opponents implode worked well for her leadership election, and may do likewise at the General Election.

There is a sense of depression amongst most of the broadcast media. Is this just a consequence of their favourite party being in a deep dark hole?

SimonStClare said:

Not long now – will they be singing in the valleys, or rioting in Islington?

A riot in Islington? That only happens if the quinoa runs out at the local deli.

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

I remember last year, the New Statesman cautioned against this palaver because Corbyn would just win again leaving Labour looking, in the words of an unidentifiable frontbencher 'not only unelectable but fucking stupid'.

That remark is looking truly prescient this morning. It's Labour that have 15 minutes to live now.

And this defender of Corbyn could not be talking more nonsense if he were smoking weed while being interviewed.

Bet he has never knocked on a door to canvas a real voter in his life.

His nose is unbroken which would support your theory.

Funny but cruel.

Five minutes...

So, just over half a million votes. That means 300k-200k would be 60-40, 350k-150k is 70-30, as the numbers are read out.

CD13 said:

Mr G,

"Think he is more ginger beer , will surely be going POP today."

Surely not a homophobic comment? That's the trouble with being right-on, you must have to censor your own words. But I'm not accusing you of that crime, sir.

Edit: For information ... ""Top Gear" presenter Jeremy Clarkson was criticised by the media watchdog on Monday for describing a car as "very ginger beer", rhyming slang for "queer".

In a written ruling, Ofcom said the phrase could offend homosexuals and should not have been used."

CD13, How that could be construed I have no idea and was most certainly not intended, far too comlex and sneaky for me. It was just a simple comment that he would more likely be lemonade than beer and his bubble will be burst today.
I am of an age where I may use some injudicious words in this mamby pamby "I am offended" world but I will not use PC crap or be scared to voice my opinions. I have no beef with any sensible person going about their life as they wish as long as they are not harming anyone else or trying to force their values on myself. Good manners and respect for individuals is my motto. Sadly there are few who follow this nowadays.

rottenborough said:

Black_Rook said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

IanB2 said:

This is worth a read, particularly for any Tories about to open the champagne a bit earlier than usual for a weekend:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/dont-be-afraid-of-jeremy-corbyn-be-afraid-of-what-comes-after-hi/

I read that piece the other day. It requires you to imagine yourself living in a parallel universe in which 40% of the electorate in England is ready to embrace radical socialism, if only a sufficiently skilled salesman were available to talk them into it.

I suppose that you can't completely rule out this prospect, a bit like the fact that you can't absolutely rule out Northern Ireland winning the World Cup at some point during our lifetimes, But I wouldn't stake any money on it. Would you?

While it's something I absolutely dread, it's entirely possible that we have a major economic problem between now and 2020.

Imagine, for a second, that we need to close our current account deficit through raising the savings rate. (A balanced current account equates to about an 10% gross savings rate, we're at 3.3%.) Closing that in a two year period would involve a massive recession, with unemployment above 10%, and maybe a 5% contraction in GDP.

Under those circumstances, could the British people elect Jeremy Corbyn, just as the Greeks elected Tsipras? Yes, they could.

It scares the living daylights out of me, but it is an entirely possible (if fortunately unlikely) scenario.

The dire scenario that you envisage is still light years away from the kind of collapse that Greece endured (runs on the banks, general unemployment at over 25%, youth unemployment at over 50%, big cuts to pension entitlements, etc, etc,) and even then the Syriza victory was not exactly overwhelming.

No significant proportion of the voters who backed Cameron last time is going to defect to Labour under Corbyn, and if the next election is in 2020 it will almost certainly be under the reformed boundaries anyway. I'm as sure as I can be of anything in politics that Labour will lose next time.

I refer you to the quote I posted down thread :-)

"In fact, I genuinely think there is more chance of Mary Berry becoming the next James Bond than there is of Jeremy Corbyn walking into Downing Street as our next Prime Minister."


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3804952/Death-Labour-Party-Today-barring-miracle-Corbyn-elected-leader-heralding-end-great-reforming-party-s-killed-hard-Left-Britain-poorer-it.html#ixzz4LA4KJhra

Statistically impossible.

PlatoSaid said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

On Sky, who is the Corbyn defender? Conrad someone?

I know of two Conrads. One is Black and one is Veidt.

Seems he writes for the Morning Star. Bit of a debate with Boulton as to whether this is a communist paper or not.

Conrad Black - as in the infamous Conrad Black?

Black v. United States, 561 U.S. 465 (2011), is a white-collar criminal law case decided by the United States Supreme Court dealing with businessman Conrad ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_v._United_States

Yes, although I don't think he wrote for the Morning Star. Although you never know, he did do a lot to discredit capitalism and wealthy elites. He might be a sleeper agent.

Miss Plato, I was chatting with someone about the lack of realism, in a fictional context, in the latest Star Wars film [tiny spoilers after this] when the black protagonist isn't immediately eaten by the not-as-good-as-the-Rancor monster [unlike its other victims].

I pointed out that a perfectly reasonable explanation was racism on the monster's part.

Guardian: Corbyn by 62%

62%, according to a leak.

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

Downing Street will be punching the air shortly according to former Labour aide on Sky.

Tessa needs to come up with a way to "engineer" an election next Spring now...

Hasn't Corbyn said that he will whip Labour MPs to vote for an election if the question is put?

Is this really happening? Somebody wake me from this nightmare.

NickPalmer said:

62%, according to a leak.

What do the sprouts say?

rottenborough said:

Is this really happening? Somebody wake me from this nightmare.

On November 9th?

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/779632188652388352

Owen Who?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

IanB2 said:

Linking two of today's thread conversations, my partner once told me (on an Austrian holiday) that buying a cuckoo clock would constitute domestic abuse.

As my kids are now going through the house imitating the clock and driving me mad cuckooing with glee they may have a point....

PMSL...... Repent at leisure

Tautology alert:

Sky News commentator: "...in this telegenic age, when it's all about soundbites..."

What are they waiting for? Can't even announce a result on time.

The Dismal Duo now on stage...

Here goes!

Eyes down - We're off!

506 438 eligible votes cast

Corbyn 313 209 61.8%

Smith 193 229 38.2%

As it's the same result as the YouGov can we take the assumption that pre 2015 Labour members have convincingly turned against Corbyn as likely?

Yep, 62% for Corbyn.

malcolmg said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

IanB2 said:

Linking two of today's thread conversations, my partner once told me (on an Austrian holiday) that buying a cuckoo clock would constitute domestic abuse.

As my kids are now going through the house imitating the clock and driving me mad cuckooing with glee they may have a point....

PMSL...... Repent at leisure

Cuckoo

Barely a move in percentage although I think more votes overall.

But that only amounts to the electorate in three seats under the new rules.

Another crap speech on its way.

Artist said:

As it's the same result as the YouGov can we take the assumption that pre 2015 Labour members have convincingly turned against Corbyn as likely?

The bloke said the split was on the screen, but Sky haven't shown it.

EDIT: Jezza said he won all parts of the selectorate.

Tory party bigger than sane Labour party as well on these figures.

Also, Bath is wonderful. Highly recommended. Stay at the Gainsborough, definitely worth it. Probably the most relaxing place in the world.

So Corbyn re-elected and fractionally increases the percentage of votes he got from the 59.5% he got last September. Corbyn/McDonnell will now almost certainly be the Labour ticket for PM and Chancellor at the next general election

"had a good summer" Corbyn
Now a fecking weather commentator

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, indeed, though it'd be getting more coverage if a man had done it. It seems a newspaper front page describes her as 'provoked and vulnerable'.

Right.

Excuses that would not be accepted if she was a man. Or a Tory.

It seems some Labour female MPs are getting police protection against constituents, and understandably so. Perhaps she needs police as well, to protect her constituents from her.

After all, who can tell when she will snap?

And I don't think she's got kids, or they'd need to be taken off her for their protection.

(The above are sometimes said about male perpetrators of violence).

Not an Archers listener, then?

Sadly not recently. Although I hear Helen Kitchener's got off scot-free, and has been granted custody of the kids.

Thus somewhat proving my point.

That entire storyline was so predictable and so utterly BBC. They should have been much more adventurous.

Titchener.

You've not listened to a story line and yet you know it's entirely predictable and so utterly BBC? Your critical faculties must be well nigh miraculous.

I've not listened in the last couple of weeks (last during the trial), but have it on catch-up upstairs (I'm sad enough to listen to it sometimes on podcast when I'm out and about). I've just read that she was granted custody.

Is that not correct?

I believe so.

It's a soap opera, they're not going to spend months building up a character's creepy bastardishness just to end up with a 'on the one hand this, on the other hand that' scenario. Insofar as there are many real life cases resembling the Titchener story, I guess the mother getting custody is probably a realistic outcome.

I'm sure the utterly predictable and worthy BBC at several points must have addressed the statistically much, much smaller incidence of female on male abuse that seems to preoccupy a certain type of PB male.

What 'type' is that, pray tell?

The 'victims of the oppressive, liberal-left gynocracy' type.

Lol. I'm not sure myself or Mr Dancer could be seen in that light.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"had a good summer" Corbyn
Now a fecking weather commentator

Like his brother?

Sandpit said:

MarqueeMark said:

Guardian: Corbyn by 62%

Closer than expected.

LOL, just an ABSOLUTE BULL WHIPPING.

Sandpit said:

He's starting with a speech of party unity, let's see how long this lasts with his supporters.

Be interesting to see what code words the moderates come up with in next few hours for 'we are f*****'

This is the most astonishingly unselfaware and dishonest speech since Reagan's claims over Iran Contra.

I am really embarrassed to think I voted Labour last year.

Morris_Dancer said:

Owen Smith: worst leadership bid since Meleager. Or Quintillus.

That's unfair. Andy Burnham's campaign last year was worse.

So he says that intimidation and abuse has no part to play in Labour politics. Let's see what that means in practice.

Mr. F, not sure it was, to be honest.

How can Corbyn say with a straight face that there are four million children living in poverty in the UK?

Is poverty now only having an iPhone 6?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

61% vs 38%. Not an overwhelming win. Almost 4 in 10 against the Leader.

It's more than Blair won in 1994.

Sandpit said:

So he says that intimidation and abuse has no part to play in Labour politics. Let's see what that means in practice.

Nothing.

SouthamObserver said:

Pretty much as expected. Good but not great for Corbyn. It will be interesting to see the breakdowns. The anti-Corbyn Labour party is the second biggest political party in the country.

Not great? How often nowadays is any election won by pretty much two to one?

Labour is a party brimming full of ideas and talent.

More Newspeak or does he really believe that Thornberry and Burnham are talented?

SouthamObserver said:

Pretty much as expected. Good but not great for Corbyn. It will be interesting to see the breakdowns. The anti-Corbyn Labour party is the second biggest political party in the country.

Actually it's probably not, Tory membership has surged to ~200k since Theresa became leader, plus some proportion of Smith's voters will have been registered supporters rather than members.