politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected
The LDs are gathering in Brighton for their annual conference which, unlike the coalition years, is barely getting any attention. That’s understandable. Having just 8 MPs and the Tories having a majority means they are not important anymore.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
FPT @ Foxinsox
A Fox seems to like cats:
https://www.facebook.com/carloscompeta/photos/a.804686659624966.1073741828.622452291181738/1097400550353574/?type=3&theater
Seriously on the Article 50 point and when the Brexit effect will be felt, it has always somewhat surprised me that people think that there will only be one impact and that it should be at a particular point in time in relation to a particular act. There should be expected to be several waves of impact - at least the following
:
1. the decision to leave itself and the implications that has. This has given us both costs (sterling) and benefits (sterling)
2. the uncertainty about the actual nature of Brexit until it is negotiated (this seems to have been fully factored in by this point, and has seen very little change since pre-Brexit, post-referendum announcement, and seems to have mainly affected investment, possibly only temporarily)
3. reaction to the announced terms of Brexit, which would be expected to vary depending on how hard or soft the terms are, and the UK public's reaction to it (i.e. if it enrages Leavers, then it adds political uncertainty to the UK and presumably another hit to the UK economy)
4. the actual immediate impact of implementing the terms of Brexit (presumably mostly negative)
5. the overall impact on the British economy once it has adapted to the new reality (including taking advantage of any new opportunities and suffering loss of access to existing ones)
"The good news is, my pneumonia finally got some Republicans interested in women's health."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-republicans-womens-health-pneumonia-228273#ixzz4KW7kEBIT
We have the Tories on the one hand and a giant mishmash of multiple inanities on the other. It will stay this way for a while but not forever.
I honestly think she can't get outside her own bubble any more. The Deplorables wasn't some off the cuff thing gaffe - it when on and on and clearly scripted. And her media cronies trying to fat shame Trump?!
It just comes across as unpleasant core vote smuggery.
Added: I see a prominent Dems campaigner in Latino community has just been charged with rape - that's awkward optics.
http://fox13now.com/2016/09/12/prominent-latino-activist-tony-yapias-charged-with-rape/
No wonder Hillary long ago hit her ceiling with the women's vote. she insults those who are not yet with her.
Doesn't mean they will be considered for national Govt. in the coming couple of decades.
'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'
http://tinyurl.com/he4e998
Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.
"Lol. Even for a weekend this is early to be knocking back the drink?
"If the right wing populists who believe this kind of thing ever get a sniff of power, we can be confident there will be lots of new things they will find for the state to do. As did every right-wing populist through history, with larger rather than smaller states than before."
This implies that there is only one form of right-wing (and once again illustrates the inadequacies of a Right-Left worldview). The "right wing" has two very different components:
- authoritarians, who are the statists you point to
- libertarians, who are small government types like Mr Bedfordshire
Personally, I have libertarian tendencies but conclude that the ever growing size of government is inevitable, in that externalities of our actions do need rules to govern them, and that as the world gets ever more crowded, more externalities come into play and they all become more important in our daily lives. If you lived deep in the woods in the 18th century a two-hour carriage drive away from your neighbor, libertarianism made a lot of sense; less so in Valetta or Hong Kong.
That said, the libertarians still have a vital role to play in the body politic - to ensure that government grows no more than it needs to.
"In other words, to understand what McDonnell actually meant, you have to listen to the words and believe the opposite to be true. So when he said, “I’m a Marxist” (which apparently fell flat with his audience, because there was no laughter at that point. Maybe it was his delivery) we are asked to believe that what he really meant was “I’m not a Marxist.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/16/john-mcdonnells-jokes-are-as-rubbish-as-his-beliefs-dont-worry-c/
It isn't however a character trait that tends to lead either to physically seizing power or winning it through an election. So I guess we shall never know.
We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.
The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave.
Dating precisely from the day after the referendum result there has been an explosion (doubling in much of the country and trebling in London) of formally reported instances of racist abuse, verbal and physical, directed both at immigrants (principally Eastern European) and ethnic minorities - such as Asian people in east London - together with an avalanche of anecdotal reports of more minor instances that have not been formally reported or recorded as crimes.
Hmmm. "A few hundred yards away"? That is some good hearing they have....
https://www.twitter.com/davidakin/status/775329687614722048
Mark Sparrow
Famous Five go back to original text after PC update flops. Awful swotters admit it was wrong to tinker. https://t.co/hOoBL4W22X
Those lovely chap and chapettes at Softbank have sent me a rather nice cheque for my ARM shares. On one hand, it's a rather maudlin time: the end of a 23-odd year happy association with the company and its predecessor. The sort of time occasion (if I could drink) I would open a bottle of Talisker and toast friends and times passed and past.
On the other hand: MONEY!
I feel rather dirty. I'm unconvinced the deal is particularly good for Cambridge or the UK, yet I'm happy about the dough. I'm a sell-out (even if forced).
Paul Bedfordshire said:
' We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.
In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1'
Justin 124 said:
'An end to human decency and civilisation as we know it.Perhaps you are a member of the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party .'
David Herdson said:
' That's a disgraceful comment and says a great deal more about you and your perverted worldview than it does about politics.'
Not in the context of the comments at which it was directed. There was a significant strand in the Tory Party sympathetic to Rothermere's view that Britain should have reached an understanding with Hitler.It continued to be seen for decades after World War 2 in the blatant racism of many members of the Monday Club - Jonathan Guinness et al.
I have just as much contempt ,by the way, for many of Corbyn's 'Stormtroopers' and supporters of the Militant Tendency etc.
Flag Quote · Off Topic
The 29th sees 8 further by elections with chances of Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives in Cotswold and Adeyfield West , Dacorum . Herts an interesting 4 way marginal seat .
Despite being a brilliant site I sometimes wonder what people hope to prove here by trying to deny what is both obvious and already very well evidenced. We all respect a challenging mind up until the point where 'challenging' morphs into obstinate denial.
Humbug to automatic Chrome updates.
Miss Plato, how did they update it? PC stuff is dreary to read.
F1: intriguing qualifying. Set about writing the pre-race piece but it'll take a while for the markets to wake up.
I think it's a little difficult to argue that civilisation emerged only after 1914. Indeed there was a significant view that after that time what was unleashed was not civilisation but barbarism, perhaps most elegantly expressed in its modern form by Mark Mazower. Indeed, the fear of barbarism (in the form of Soviet Russia) led Rothermere to support in turn Horthy, Mosley, Hitler and amusingly, the massive rearmament that was eventually used against them rather than against the Soviets!
I wouldn't want to go back to a time when the Treasury was run by a mere 25 Civil Servants or people were divided into categories based on the colour of their skin. But then I often wish I didn't live in an age where a person makes a serious case to be President of the US on the basis of her gender and her social position rather than her talent, or where her rival appears to think money is the sole criterion for success. Or indeed where a card carrying lunatic from a highly privileged background is elected leader of a party supposed to represent poor people on the basis of his family background and connections. I think we have some way to go on the civilisation front.
I blame Brexit.
"One of Britain's biggest car makers is planning an export boom outside Europe after Brexit as it seeks to boost profits from the US and Canada.
Honda announced the plan to reduce its dependence on the Continent as it unveiled its new five-door Civic family hatchback – the 10th generation of this popular model – with its Swindon factory as the global production hub.
The new strategy means the proportion of Honda cars exported from the UK to the world beyond Europe will soar four-fold, from just 10 per cent to 40 per cent of production.
...
Katsushi Inoue, Honda Europe's president and chief operating officer, said: 'The launch of this new model is very significant for the European region, not just because of the improvements made in the product, but also what it means for this factory here in the UK.
'The strategy of transforming Swindon into a global production hub was our plan regardless of Brexit.
'It was the plan before the vote in June and it remains our plan after the Brexit vote. There's no change.'"
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3791684/Built-Britain-car-conquer-America-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html
I expect those that were prophesying doom in the motor industry will now be feeling pretty silly.
Hamilton's been off the boil this weekend. But, you only get points on Sunday.
On the 5.9 on Rosberg: credit to Mr. Sandpit, it was his suggestion. Right now it is pleasing. I may hedge (hedge available at evens).
That's a shade optimistic.
However, I doubt if they will make a decision soon either, until they know what terms the divorce will be on.
Seriously though, it's clear that Honda intent to take advantage of the UK not being in the common external tariff zone after leaving the EU. All of these cars are earmarked for non-EU destinations, not being in the EU will bring opportunity as well as uncertainty for existing models. I said it before the referendum, one man's uncertainty is another man's opportunity.
https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/777139081335738369
If, however, the same event took place in a public space or community hall, then have at it with demanding application of society's mores on sexual equality.