politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected

1st like Jezza

Of course, I start posting, so new thread

FPT @ Foxinsox

A Fox seems to like cats:

https://www.facebook.com/carloscompeta/photos/a.804686659624966.1073741828.622452291181738/1097400550353574/?type=3&theater

Seriously on the Article 50 point and when the Brexit effect will be felt, it has always somewhat surprised me that people think that there will only be one impact and that it should be at a particular point in time in relation to a particular act. There should be expected to be several waves of impact - at least the following
:
1. the decision to leave itself and the implications that has. This has given us both costs (sterling) and benefits (sterling)
2. the uncertainty about the actual nature of Brexit until it is negotiated (this seems to have been fully factored in by this point, and has seen very little change since pre-Brexit, post-referendum announcement, and seems to have mainly affected investment, possibly only temporarily)
3. reaction to the announced terms of Brexit, which would be expected to vary depending on how hard or soft the terms are, and the UK public's reaction to it (i.e. if it enrages Leavers, then it adds political uncertainty to the UK and presumably another hit to the UK economy)
4. the actual immediate impact of implementing the terms of Brexit (presumably mostly negative)
5. the overall impact on the British economy once it has adapted to the new reality (including taking advantage of any new opportunities and suffering loss of access to existing ones)

Historically the left has been split between Lab and LD - leaving the Tories to sail on through the middle. There was a bit of a wobble where Labour advanced and UkIP threatened to perform the splitting role but from the right. Now that they have succeeded and Righties are going home, this side of the political divide looks rock steady. The left is going to be hopelessly split for a while. Labour is internally divided, the yellow peril may be about to start a long slog back to relevance and, importantly, UKIP seem to be realising their fertile ground is patriotic working class voters in Labour's ex-heartlands. Oh - and the SNP - they're lefties too.

We have the Tories on the one hand and a giant mishmash of multiple inanities on the other. It will stay this way for a while but not forever.

MTimT said:

This latest joke from Hillary seems poorly judged. She is trying to woo Republicans who cannot abide Trump, including some of the big donors. Why insult them, even in a joke?

"The good news is, my pneumonia finally got some Republicans interested in women's health."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-republicans-womens-health-pneumonia-228273#ixzz4KW7kEBIT

At this point, I suspect they think that GOTV is more critical than wooing opponents. The joke sounds feisty, important for GOTV among voters who think her lacklustre.

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think she can't get outside her own bubble any more.

I think that is right. It is what happens when you hardly talk to anyone outside your circle, avoid hard press interviews, and only do carefully stage-managed walkabouts with voters.

FPT at IanB2

"Lol. Even for a weekend this is early to be knocking back the drink?

"If the right wing populists who believe this kind of thing ever get a sniff of power, we can be confident there will be lots of new things they will find for the state to do. As did every right-wing populist through history, with larger rather than smaller states than before."

This implies that there is only one form of right-wing (and once again illustrates the inadequacies of a Right-Left worldview). The "right wing" has two very different components:

- authoritarians, who are the statists you point to
- libertarians, who are small government types like Mr Bedfordshire

Personally, I have libertarian tendencies but conclude that the ever growing size of government is inevitable, in that externalities of our actions do need rules to govern them, and that as the world gets ever more crowded, more externalities come into play and they all become more important in our daily lives. If you lived deep in the woods in the 18th century a two-hour carriage drive away from your neighbor, libertarianism made a lot of sense; less so in Valetta or Hong Kong.

That said, the libertarians still have a vital role to play in the body politic - to ensure that government grows no more than it needs to.

MarqueeMark said:

Rejoice. The Pointing-at Potholes Party is getting back its local mojo.

Doesn't mean they will be considered for national Govt. in the coming couple of decades.

It's only been, what, 110 years since the Libs won a General Election

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

The article talks of racism. Since when has Polish been a race? It's a nationality. Polish people are Europeans like British people. Mis-using language like this helps nobody.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Despite the clear majority of Brexit supporters not being racist, there was undoubtedly a racist anti-immigrant aspect to the Leave campaign and to the associated coverage by the tabloid press.

We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave.

Dating precisely from the day after the referendum result there has been an explosion (doubling in much of the country and trebling in London) of formally reported instances of racist abuse, verbal and physical, directed both at immigrants (principally Eastern European) and ethnic minorities - such as Asian people in east London - together with an avalanche of anecdotal reports of more minor instances that have not been formally reported or recorded as crimes.

So Lib Dem majority in 2020 then. Nailed on.

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Despite the clear majority of Brexit supporters not being racist, there was undoubtedly a racist anti-immigrant aspect to the Leave campaign and to the associated coverage by the tabloid press.

We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave.

Dating precisely from the day after the referendum result there has been an explosion (doubling in much of the country and trebling in London) of formally reported instances of racist abuse, verbal and physical, directed both at immigrants (principally Eastern European) and ethnic minorities - such as Asian people in east London - together with an avalanche of anecdotal reports of more minor instances that have not been formally reported or recorded as crimes.

I'd like to see evidence on that last claim. The Independent had it at a 58% increase in reported acts, nowhere near 100% for most of the country you state. This number is now only 14% above trend (according to the same article), and there is of course the distinction between actual crime and reported crime.

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating.

Well, I'm one LEAVE voter who HASN'T attacked any Polish people, nor do I see any reason or justification for it.

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

"The people who attacked him were at first sitting a few hundred yards away, but when they heard them talking they came up to them and swore and told them to speak English".

Hmmm. "A few hundred yards away"? That is some good hearing they have....

I am not sure what point you are trying to make? Since the victim was Polish it is quite likely he was speaking Polish. Since the alleged attackers told him to speak English it appears that they had worked out he was not English himself, however near or far from him they were. I don't see that your post adds anything to the question apart from the mystery of what motive you might have for trying to muddy the water?

On the other hand it appears the SNP are calling in reinforcements: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is-this-the-most-compelling-picture-of-the-loch-ness-monster-yet/ar-BBwemIl?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating.

Well, I'm one LEAVE voter who HASN'T attacked any Polish people, nor do I see any reason or justification for it.

And the vast majority of leave voters will clearly be able to say the same. That doesn't change the fact that since the Brexit vote there has been a significant increase in racist attacks and incidents, that now sadly includes several murders. I don't think anyone does themselves any favours by trying to deny this.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

"The people who attacked him were at first sitting a few hundred yards away, but when they heard them talking they came up to them and swore and told them to speak English".

Hmmm. "A few hundred yards away"? That is some good hearing they have....

I am not sure what point you are trying to make? Since the victim was Polish it is quite likely he was speaking Polish. Since the alleged attackers told him to speak English it appears that they had worked out he was not English himself, however near or far from him they were. I don't see that your post adds anything to the question apart from the mystery of what motive you might have for trying to muddy the water?

Their point is that the story doesn't quite add up.

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Despite the clear majority of Brexit supporters not being racist, there was undoubtedly a racist anti-immigrant aspect to the Leave campaign and to the associated coverage by the tabloid press.

We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave.

Dating precisely from the day after the referendum result there has been an explosion (doubling in much of the country and trebling in London) of formally reported instances of racist abuse, verbal and physical, directed both at immigrants (principally Eastern European) and ethnic minorities - such as Asian people in east London - together with an avalanche of anecdotal reports of more minor instances that have not been formally reported or recorded as crimes.

I'd like to see evidence on that last claim. The Independent had it at a 58% increase in reported acts, nowhere near 100% for most of the country you state. This number is now only 14% above trend (according to the same article), and there is of course the distinction between actual crime and reported crime.

Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to spike around election time. I expect this is a similar phenomenon.

DavidL said:

On the other hand it appears the SNP are calling in reinforcements: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is-this-the-most-compelling-picture-of-the-loch-ness-monster-yet/ar-BBwemIl?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

As a (hypothetical) survivor from the age of the dinosaurs, surely Nessie would be a Unionist?

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

On the other hand it appears the SNP are calling in reinforcements: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is-this-the-most-compelling-picture-of-the-loch-ness-monster-yet/ar-BBwemIl?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

Looks more like three separate things.

I think the bigger problem is the lack of scale. Even if this is 1 creature is it 20 feet, 10ft long or 2 feet? Can't really tell.

Looks to me like a trio of seals, although I have no idea if they actually live up there!

RobD said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

On the other hand it appears the SNP are calling in reinforcements: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is-this-the-most-compelling-picture-of-the-loch-ness-monster-yet/ar-BBwemIl?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

Looks more like three separate things.

I think the bigger problem is the lack of scale. Even if this is 1 creature is it 20 feet, 10ft long or 2 feet? Can't really tell.

Looks to me like a trio of seals, although I have no idea if they actually live up there!

Oh yes, you will get seals in Loch Ness quite frequently. Also dolphins from time to time which is another potential candidate. Fun picture though.

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

On the other hand it appears the SNP are calling in reinforcements: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is-this-the-most-compelling-picture-of-the-loch-ness-monster-yet/ar-BBwemIl?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

As a (hypothetical) survivor from the age of the dinosaurs, surely Nessie would be a Unionist?

I think the polling evidence is inconclusive.

justin124 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

justin124 said:

Paul Bedfordshire said:

' We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.

In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1'
Justin 124 said:
'An end to human decency and civilisation as we know it.Perhaps you are a member of the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party .'

David Herdson said:

' That's a disgraceful comment and says a great deal more about you and your perverted worldview than it does about politics.'

Not in the context of the comments at which it was directed.

Oh come off it. There was no justification for that disgraceful comment. You should gave a good long look in a mirror and be ashamed of yourself.

Not at all - and I made no assertion of any kind. My first word was 'Perhaps'.

Well perhaps you are a complete moron. Please don't take that as an insult because I have covered myself with the second word.

Noted that half of the UKIP speakers in the debates on their rules have walking aids of various forms. Not the healthiest of memberships from this sample. Maybe this is a result of all that leafletting?

ThreeQuidder said:

It looks like it's not just the British Left who struggle with this crap:

https://www.twitter.com/davidakin/status/775329687614722048

I think it's because he's doing a striptease.

@justin124

I think it's a little difficult to argue that civilisation emerged only after 1914. Indeed there was a significant view that after that time what was unleashed was not civilisation but barbarism, perhaps most elegantly expressed in its modern form by Mark Mazower. Indeed, the fear of barbarism (in the form of Soviet Russia) led Rothermere to support in turn Horthy, Mosley, Hitler and amusingly, the massive rearmament that was eventually used against them rather than against the Soviets!

I wouldn't want to go back to a time when the Treasury was run by a mere 25 Civil Servants or people were divided into categories based on the colour of their skin. But then I often wish I didn't live in an age where a person makes a serious case to be President of the US on the basis of her gender and her social position rather than her talent, or where her rival appears to think money is the sole criterion for success. Or indeed where a card carrying lunatic from a highly privileged background is elected leader of a party supposed to represent poor people on the basis of his family background and connections. I think we have some way to go on the civilisation front.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Noted that half of the UKIP speakers in the debates on their rules have walking aids of various forms. Not the healthiest of memberships from this sample. Maybe this is a result of all that leafletting?

- or that people think the party doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Just a little snippet I stumbled across. Remember those people who were saying that if the UK voted to leave the EU investment in the car industry was in dire threat? Well Honda have made an announcement:

"One of Britain's biggest car makers is planning an export boom outside Europe after Brexit as it seeks to boost profits from the US and Canada.

Honda announced the plan to reduce its dependence on the Continent as it unveiled its new five-door Civic family hatchback – the 10th generation of this popular model – with its Swindon factory as the global production hub.

The new strategy means the proportion of Honda cars exported from the UK to the world beyond Europe will soar four-fold, from just 10 per cent to 40 per cent of production.
...
Katsushi Inoue, Honda Europe's president and chief operating officer, said: 'The launch of this new model is very significant for the European region, not just because of the improvements made in the product, but also what it means for this factory here in the UK.

'The strategy of transforming Swindon into a global production hub was our plan regardless of Brexit.

'It was the plan before the vote in June and it remains our plan after the Brexit vote. There's no change.'"

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3791684/Built-Britain-car-conquer-America-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html

I expect those that were prophesying doom in the motor industry will now be feeling pretty silly.

HurstLlama said:

Just a little snippet I stumbled across. Remember those people who were saying that if the UK voted to leave the EU investment in the car industry was in dire threat? Well Honda have made an announcement:

SNIP

I expect those that were prophesying doom in the motor industry will now be feeling pretty silly.

Oh they'll find a reason to moan, don't worry.

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Surely you are trolling? Or dim?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Despite the clear majority of Brexit supporters not being racist, there was undoubtedly a racist anti-immigrant aspect to the Leave campaign and to the associated coverage by the tabloid press.

We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave.

Dating precisely from the day after the referendum result there has been an explosion (doubling in much of the country and trebling in London) of formally reported instances of racist abuse, verbal and physical, directed both at immigrants (principally Eastern European) and ethnic minorities - such as Asian people in east London - together with an avalanche of anecdotal reports of more minor instances that have not been formally reported or recorded as crimes.

I'd like to see evidence on that last claim. The Independent had it at a 58% increase in reported acts, nowhere near 100% for most of the country you state. This number is now only 14% above trend (according to the same article), and there is of course the distinction between actual crime and reported crime.

Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to spike around election time. I expect this is a similar phenomenon.

In Scotland it spikes around Old Firm games.

HurstLlama said:

Just a little snippet I stumbled across. Remember those people who were saying that if the UK voted to leave the EU investment in the car industry was in dire threat? Well Honda have made an announcement:

"One of Britain's biggest car makers is planning an export boom outside Europe after Brexit as it seeks to boost profits from the US and Canada.

Honda announced the plan to reduce its dependence on the Continent as it unveiled its new five-door Civic family hatchback – the 10th generation of this popular model – with its Swindon factory as the global production hub.

The new strategy means the proportion of Honda cars exported from the UK to the world beyond Europe will soar four-fold, from just 10 per cent to 40 per cent of production.
...
Katsushi Inoue, Honda Europe's president and chief operating officer, said: 'The launch of this new model is very significant for the European region, not just because of the improvements made in the product, but also what it means for this factory here in the UK.

'The strategy of transforming Swindon into a global production hub was our plan regardless of Brexit.

'It was the plan before the vote in June and it remains our plan after the Brexit vote. There's no change.'"

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3791684/Built-Britain-car-conquer-America-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html

I expect those that were prophesying doom in the motor industry will now be feeling pretty silly.

It will be genuinely interesting to see what Nissan do next, perhaps BMW as well. My understanding is that those plants are very integrated into the European system and leaving the single market would cause major logistical headaches. However, given the size and nature of the operations will they move the supply chain to the UK instead of the plants to the continent? If so that really is a key reason to remain in thoroughly debunked.

However, I doubt if they will make a decision soon either, until they know what terms the divorce will be on.

ydoethur said:

HurstLlama said:

Just a little snippet I stumbled across. Remember those people who were saying that if the UK voted to leave the EU investment in the car industry was in dire threat? Well Honda have made an announcement:

"One of Britain's biggest car makers is planning an export boom outside Europe after Brexit as it seeks to boost profits from the US and Canada.

Honda announced the plan to reduce its dependence on the Continent as it unveiled its new five-door Civic family hatchback – the 10th generation of this popular model – with its Swindon factory as the global production hub.

The new strategy means the proportion of Honda cars exported from the UK to the world beyond Europe will soar four-fold, from just 10 per cent to 40 per cent of production.
...
Katsushi Inoue, Honda Europe's president and chief operating officer, said: 'The launch of this new model is very significant for the European region, not just because of the improvements made in the product, but also what it means for this factory here in the UK.

'The strategy of transforming Swindon into a global production hub was our plan regardless of Brexit.

'It was the plan before the vote in June and it remains our plan after the Brexit vote. There's no change.'"

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3791684/Built-Britain-car-conquer-America-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html

I expect those that were prophesying doom in the motor industry will now be feeling pretty silly.

It will be genuinely interesting to see what Nissan do next, perhaps BMW as well. My understanding is that those plants are very integrated into the European system and leaving the single market would cause major logistical headaches. However, given the size and nature of the operations will they move the supply chain to the UK instead of the plants to the continent? If so that really is a key reason to remain in thoroughly debunked.

However, I doubt if they will make a decision soon either, until they know what terms the divorce will be on.

It would be a massive surprise if there wasn't at least tariff/NTB free goods trade. We'd probably also use equivalency for specifications, but most of those originate from the WTO rather than the EU so it's a no change scenario.

ThreeQuidder said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Despite the clear majority of Brexit supporters not being racist, there was undoubtedly a racist anti-immigrant aspect to the Leave campaign and to the associated coverage by the tabloid press.

We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave

I'd like to see evidence on that last claim. The Independent had it at a 58% increase in reported acts, nowhere near 100% for most of the country you state. This number is now only 14% above trend (according to the same article), and there is of course the distinction between actual crime and reported crime.

Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to spike around election time. I expect this is a similar phenomenon.

It has undoubtedly spiked, but I just wanted to see evidence for the 200%/300% claim.

We should also consider what would have happened had Remain won. I would guess more incidents but fewer reports.

Because there was a significant spike after the result (with some of the early coverage suggesting five times the normal level of reported incidents) that is now dropping away, there isn't much point in arguing over the figures. Depending on the time period and geography you choose, the increase in incidents can be anything from +25% to +400%. The bottom line is that there has been a dramatic short-run increase, which thankfully is falling off, including some very serious incidents including two recent murders. Many councils including my own have made strong cross-party statements condemning this behaviour and the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it. Such actions, together with the passage of time, are hopefully playing their part in slowly trying to get things back to normal. None of this detracts from the original point nor from the seriousness of the murders.

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

You would get that treatment for speaking with a southern accent in Salford 30 years ag, let alone Polish

IanB2 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

Despite the clear majority of Brexit supporters not being racist, there was undoubtedly a racist anti-immigrant aspect to the Leave campaign and to the associated coverage by the tabloid press.

We know from history that when a population is subjected to sustained propaganda stigmatising particular groups of people, there is a tendency for some individuals to take the law into their own hands by verbally and/or physically attacking such people.

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) in the hope that they will leave

I'd like to see evidence on that last claim. The Independent had it at a 58% increase in reported acts, nowhere near 100% for most of the country you state. This number is now only 14% above trend (according to the same article), and there is of course the distinction between actual crime and reported crime.

Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to spike around election time. I expect this is a similar phenomenon.

It has undoubtedly spiked, but I just wanted to see evidence for the 200%/300% claim.

We should also consider what would have happened had Remain won. I would guess more incidents but fewer reports.

Because there was a significant spike after the result (with some of the early coverage suggesting five times the normal level of reported incidents) that is now dropping away, there isn't much point in arguing over the figures. Depending on the time period and geography you choose, the increase in incidents can be anything from +25% to +400%. The bottom line is that there has been a dramatic short-run increase, which thankfully is falling off, including some very serious incidents including two recent murders. Many councils including my own have made strong cross-party statements condemning this behaviour and the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it. Such actions, together with the passage of time, are hopefully playing their part in slowly trying to get things back to normal. None of this detracts from the original point nor from the seriousness of the murders.

Any evidence for that "doubling in much of the country" claim?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

You would get that treatment for speaking with a southern accent in Salford 30 years ag, let alone Polish

Well, that's perfectly alright then.

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

It looks like it's not just the British Left who struggle with this crap:

https://www.twitter.com/davidakin/status/775329687614722048

I think it's because he's doing a striptease.

Frankly, if a Western politician goes into a mosque to address the muslim community, I don't think he or she has too much to complain about if there is segregation of the sexes. Even the UK's ratification of the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women had reservations limiting its application to a whole variety of things, including religion (and, inter alia, Royal matters).

If, however, the same event took place in a public space or community hall, then have at it with demanding application of society's mores on sexual equality.

ThreeQuidder said:

justin124 said:

Paul Bedfordshire said:

' We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.

In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1'
Justin 124 said:
'An end to human decency and civilisation as we know it.Perhaps you are a member of the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party .'

David Herdson said:

' That's a disgraceful comment and says a great deal more about you and your perverted worldview than it does about politics.'

Not in the context of the comments at which it was directed.

Oh come off it. There was no justification for that disgraceful comment. You should gave a good long look in a mirror and be ashamed of yourself.

There is no civilization without a huge and powerful state, didn't ya know?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

You would get that treatment for speaking with a southern accent in Salford 30 years ag, let alone Polish

If you grew up listening to Billy Connolly in the 70s, you'd just assume that was a normal Saturday night in Glasgow.

Alistair said:

Bad, bad week for Hilary timed with the start of early voting in North Carolina so not good news for Hilary. Two interesting trends. Early voting rates massively higher than last election, Dem votes returning at much higher rate.

Perhaps more interesting is how the number of unaffiliated ballots is massively higher than last time, approaching the number of Republicans.