Off topic: Jeff Bezos has just revealed Blue Origins' next rocket - New Glenn.
Looks like a serious bit of kit with a decently wide faring and 3.5 million pounds of thrust (Which would make it the most powerful rocket available right now I think)
That's going to be a really serious rocket: it'll only have slightly less power than SpaceX's Falcon Heavy.
It looks as though he's skipping 2.5 generations: the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy, and going to compete with whatever SpaceX do with their Raptor engine.
I *think* 23 feet diameter is bigger than the loading gauge for US railways and highways (a design constraint for rockets in the past), so it'll have to be constructed near site or transported by barge, as the Shuttle's External Tank was.
List of the 9 Tory MPs who lost their seats last year:
Nick de Bois (Enfield North) Angie Bray (Ealing Central & Acton) Mary Macleod (Brentford & Isleworth) Esther McVey (Wirral West) Stephen Mosley (City of Chester) Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster & Fleetwood) Simon Reevell (Dewsbury) Lee Scott (Ilford North) Paul Uppal (Wolverhampton South West)
Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington seat is to vanish from the map following the boundary changes, leaving Jez to fight it out for a new seat called Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington. Sources with intimate knowledge of the Boundary Review tell Guido that the new seat will take in the ward of Stamford Hill West in Hackney. Stamford Hill West forms part of a 30,000 strong Orthodox Jewish community. 37.6% of people living Stamford Hill West identify as Jewish.
Might give the boundary reforms enough rebel Labour support to go through if these are confirmed.
Corbyn will have no seat? how much floorspace is there in the commons?
“This is a problem that many MPs face every boundary review. Today this parliament is completely ram-packed."
Most MPs will actually be unaffected, given they are only reducing the chamber by less than 10%/
Nonsense. The knock-on of the inflexible 5% variation is that several seats have to be altered just to balance out one which isn't in quota. Count the "orphan" wards once we have the full proposals - constituencies containing a single ward from a local authority area, just there to get inside quota. It's the sort of thing that infuriates locally, and you didn't have in anything like the same number, before the 5% rule came in.
The way to get around this is to allow constituencies to be built on smaller building blocks than wards. I can't see any problem with splitting a ward between more than one constituency, although obviously it's not quite as neat. The building blocks are there - middle- and lower- level super output areas would do the trick.
Interesting, as I'm sure Cameron said he's stay on as a backbench MP (although that might've been assuming he departed on his own terms rather than in the aftermath of defeat).
Genuine question. What sort of travel rights do people expect we will get in the EU?
For short term visitors I expect it to be a stamp on arrival, business people may need to get e-visas to attend conferences or meetings.
I can't see that happening. It will be pretty much as it is now.
If we leave the single market then both sides will want a way of tracking arrivals and departures of tourists.
I imagine it will just be filling in a card on the plane/ferry/train and handing it over at passport control for everyone, not just tourists.
Who else if not just tourists? I highly doubt that the home office will ask British citizens to fill out landing cards.
I was responding to your thing about business people needing e-visas.
Americans have to fill out the customs cards when they return from abroad. Presumably, duty free rules will be reintroduced.
We'll have to go through the green channel instead of the EU one, but yes if we leave the customs union then I'd expect duty rules to come back.
Brits are supposed to fill out customs forms on the way back? Or at least used to? I've only ever walked through the green line without being stopped for anything.
The big question is what about Brits who want to move abroad to the EU to work, retire or marry someone etc. If they have to go through a visa process then that's a huge loss of rights compared to now.
Brits don't have to fill out a customs form; by going through the Green channel you are implicitly declaring that you have no goods that attract customs duty (and hence liable to prosecution if you actually are and are caught)
So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
Nigel Farage?
Oh dear. In an alternate universe Loathsome won the leadership election and just handed the seat to Farage who joined the Tories on the day she was elected leader.
It's been pointed out that Cameron's resignation might have been a natural corollary of the Tory leadership election ending, as originally planned, on September 9th.
Will be fascinated to see what he does next. I agree that Osborne may well disappear too.
Genuine question. What sort of travel rights do people expect we will get in the EU?
For short term visitors I expect it to be a stamp on arrival, business people may need to get e-visas to attend conferences or meetings.
I can't see that happening. It will be pretty much as it is now.
If we leave the single market then both sides will want a way of tracking arrivals and departures of tourists.
I imagine it will just be filling in a card on the plane/ferry/train and handing it over at passport control for everyone, not just tourists.
Who else if not just tourists? I highly doubt that the home office will ask British citizens to fill out landing cards.
I was responding to your thing about business people needing e-visas.
Americans have to fill out the customs cards when they return from abroad. Presumably, duty free rules will be reintroduced.
We'll have to go through the green channel instead of the EU one, but yes if we leave the customs union then I'd expect duty rules to come back.
Brits are supposed to fill out customs forms on the way back? Or at least used to? I've only ever walked through the green line without being stopped for anything.
I've never gone through the red channel. But then I've never had anything to declare!
David Cameron next Secretary General of The United Nations.
You heard it here first.
Unlikely. The UN sec generals always tend to come from small to medium countries. The candidates currently standing come from Bulgaria, NZ, Costa Rica, Moldova, Portugal, Serbia, Macedonia, Argentina and Slovenia. There has been talk that it is the turn of a candidate from E Europe.
I see many Leavers are STILL laying into Obama for stating the obvious, and restating long-standing US policy.
Guys, the war is over. You won. What's wrong with you, that you are still bitter? It's normally the losing side which can't get over it.
If the Special Relationship means anything it means the UK isn't at the back of the queue. That would imply that at, the very least, TTIP and a UK-US trade deal would proceed in tandem, which would probably be in US interests anyway if they wanted to play hardball and play the EU and UK concessions off each other.
Otherwise the relationship isn't very special.
Common heritage means a great deal, the odd war of independence aside, as does a common language (just). I think, however, that the special relationship has over the past few decades manifested itself in joint military adventures of one kind or another.
I think those days of the US gallivanting around, playing the world policeman role, is over, for better or for worse. But hence the need for a grown up power to endorse such activities will decline. Whether the US saw the UK as being important as an EU member endorsing its military activities, of course we have no idea.
To be honest, it was a phrase Churchill largely instigated for personal and historical reasons he saw the English speaking people's as at the core of the world's history.
For us it probably made us feel more important and valued and the US agreed to flatter us with it to make us feel better.
From the Destroyers deal of 1940, to Suez, to the Falklands/Grenada the US had always done what's in its own interests.
Well, that was quite an hour: Good: Bezos giving his plans for future rockets (yay!) Bad: Cameron standing down Brilliant: the little 'un having a 3 hour sleep!
Off topic: Jeff Bezos has just revealed Blue Origins' next rocket - New Glenn.
Looks like a serious bit of kit with a decently wide faring and 3.5 million pounds of thrust (Which would make it the most powerful rocket available right now I think)
That's going to be a really serious rocket: it'll only have slightly less power than SpaceX's Falcon Heavy.
It looks as though he's skipping 2.5 generations: the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy, and going to compete with whatever SpaceX do with their Raptor engine.
I *think* 23 feet diameter is bigger than the loading gauge for US railways and highways (a design constraint for rockets in the past), so it'll have to be constructed near site or transported by barge, as the Shuttle's External Tank was.
Exciting times for the space buff ...
The power is a bit less than the Falcon Heavy, but the faring is mahoosive !
Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn Cameron: "Everything you do will become a big distraction from what the govt needs to do for our country". ie, I won't agree with Theresa.
Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington seat is to vanish from the map following the boundary changes, leaving Jez to fight it out for a new seat called Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington. Sources with intimate knowledge of the Boundary Review tell Guido that the new seat will take in the ward of Stamford Hill West in Hackney. Stamford Hill West forms part of a 30,000 strong Orthodox Jewish community. 37.6% of people living Stamford Hill West identify as Jewish.
Might give the boundary reforms enough rebel Labour support to go through if these are confirmed.
Corbyn will have no seat? how much floorspace is there in the commons?
“This is a problem that many MPs face every boundary review. Today this parliament is completely ram-packed."
Most MPs will actually be unaffected, given they are only reducing the chamber by less than 10%/
Nonsense. The knock-on of the inflexible 5% variation is that several seats have to be altered just to balance out one which isn't in quota. Count the "orphan" wards once we have the full proposals - constituencies containing a single ward from a local authority area, just there to get inside quota. It's the sort of thing that infuriates locally, and you didn't have in anything like the same number, before the 5% rule came in.
The way to get around this is to allow constituencies to be built on smaller building blocks than wards. I can't see any problem with splitting a ward between more than one constituency, although obviously it's not quite as neat. The building blocks are there - middle- and lower- level super output areas would do the trick.
The English boundary commission have said they will split wards this time. Many of the Tory shires have the right number of constituencies so only need minor tweaking (e.g. Berkshire only requires moving one ward from Slough to Windsor).
The main areas with major changes will be Wales and the NE (both losing large numbers of seats), London (different combination of borough pairings to previously) and West Mids, Manchester, W & S Yorkshire metropolitan areas (large wards)
Nick Robinson ✔ @bbcnickrobinson Friends say Cameron unhappy at May scrapping his policies & distancing herself from him so obviously. Is that why he's quitting as an MP?
Julia Hartley Brewer Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.
So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
TSE
What a terrible birthday present.
I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
Happy Birthday!
Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
The way to get around this is to allow constituencies to be built on smaller building blocks than wards. I can't see any problem with splitting a ward between more than one constituency, although obviously it's not quite as neat. The building blocks are there - middle- and lower- level super output areas would do the trick.
The English boundary commission have said they will split wards this time. Many of the Tory shires have the right number of constituencies so only need minor tweaking (e.g. Berkshire only requires moving one ward from Slough to Windsor).
The main areas with major changes will be Wales and the NE (both losing large numbers of seats), London (different combination of borough pairings to previously) and West Mids, Manchester, W & S Yorkshire metropolitan areas (large wards)
Oh, ok - thanks. In 2013 they struggled dreadfully with this - there were various local authorities (eg East and West Cheshire) where wards were so large and unhelpfully sized that they almost all had to cross boundaries purely so they could all have a small ward from an adjacent district to arrive at the allotted electorate.
Manchester will be interesting - its population grew by about 25% (over 100,000, I think) between the last censuses (censi?), almost all close to the city centre. Though how many of these individuals made it onto the electoral register I don't know.
So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
TSE
What a terrible birthday present.
I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
Happy Birthday!
Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
Off topic: Jeff Bezos has just revealed Blue Origins' next rocket - New Glenn.
Looks like a serious bit of kit with a decently wide faring and 3.5 million pounds of thrust (Which would make it the most powerful rocket available right now I think)
That's going to be a really serious rocket: it'll only have slightly less power than SpaceX's Falcon Heavy.
It looks as though he's skipping 2.5 generations: the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy, and going to compete with whatever SpaceX do with their Raptor engine.
I *think* 23 feet diameter is bigger than the loading gauge for US railways and highways (a design constraint for rockets in the past), so it'll have to be constructed near site or transported by barge, as the Shuttle's External Tank was.
Exciting times for the space buff ...
The power is a bit less than the Falcon Heavy, but the faring is mahoosive !
I'm currently reading Heppenheimer's 'The Space Shuttle Decision 1965-1972' (**), an official NASA book about how the Shuttle came about. (*) It tells quite a story about how rocket development was let down by a lack of direction from politicians and the top of NASA.
So much money was wasted as NASA directed companies to design different systems that there was not one ounce of political will to develop (NERVA anyone?).
I'm really hopeful that one of these two companies is focused (and rich!) enough to take us the next step, where governments have failed (the US through misdirection, Russia through poverty and China through lack of ambition).
So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
TSE
What a terrible birthday present.
I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
Happy Birthday!
Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
A sense of impudence too......
So the Witney nominations are going to be between you and JohnO, Witney Tory Association don't know how lucky they are.
Julia Hartley Brewer Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.
So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
TSE
What a terrible birthday present.
I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
Happy Birthday!
Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
TSE
What a terrible birthday present.
I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
Happy Birthday!
Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
Julia Hartley Brewer Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.
Julia Hartley Brewer Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.
The reason Dave has quit. He didn't want to vote regularly against Theresa May's government, he didn't want to become the incredible sulk.
Oh well, if I can't get a peerage, perhaps I'll get his seat.
How nailed-on are the Tories here? I'm still struggling to move out of the 1989-2014 mindset wherein the governing Conservatives always lost by-elections, no matter how safe. But it's hard to see any of the opposition parties making the enormous heave required here?
This could all be very good news for May. If the Cameroons lose Dave and Osborne, the head has been cut off the snake, and I don't see any organised rebellion forming from the remnants. With Gove appearing to convert over Grammar Schools as well, she may find Tory 'Wet'/Moderniser opposition no longer much of an issue, and will be more able to focus on pleasing the Brexiteers. A true blue Tory government from May seems more and more likely by the day.
Perhaps the trigger for Dave resigning is that Witney is also going to be abolished in the boundary shake-up?
Witney is above average, although perhaps the surrounding constituencies are not?
Oxfordshire keeps 6 seats, however, there will need to be some shuffling around as Banbury constituency is too large and so Banbury and Bicester will have to be split up.
The reason Dave has quit. He didn't want to vote regularly against Theresa May's government, he didn't want to become the incredible sulk.
Oh well, if I can't get a peerage, perhaps I'll get his seat.
How nailed-on are the Tories here? I'm still struggling to move out of the 1989-2014 mindset wherein the governing Conservatives always lost by-elections, no matter how safe. But it's hard to see any of the opposition parties making the enormous heave required here?
Hey, WItney has had several years of Labour representation.
Nick Robinson ✔ @bbcnickrobinson Friends say Cameron unhappy at May scrapping his policies & distancing herself from him so obviously. Is that why he's quitting as an MP?
Probably many reasons. His family's still young.
I can't see Sam letting him take another major role, especially one that'll take him out of the country a great deal. She wants her hubby (and life) back.
This could all be very good news for May. If the Cameroons lose Dave and Osborne, the head has been cut off the snake, and I don't see any organised rebellion forming from the remnants. With Gove appearing to convert over Grammar Schools as well, she may find Tory 'Wet'/Moderniser opposition no longer much of an issue, and will be more able to focus on pleasing the Brexiteers. A true blue Tory government from May seems more and more likely by the day.
May was moderniser way before Cameron and Osborne got involved.
This could all be very good news for May. If the Cameroons lose Dave and Osborne, the head has been cut off the snake, and I don't see any organised rebellion forming from the remnants. With Gove appearing to convert over Grammar Schools as well, she may find Tory 'Wet'/Moderniser opposition no longer much of an issue, and will be more able to focus on pleasing the Brexiteers. A true blue Tory government from May seems more and more likely by the day.
But an interesting by election in a seat where leave only just won.
Comments
So Witney then. A route back for Ed Balls?
It looks as though he's skipping 2.5 generations: the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy, and going to compete with whatever SpaceX do with their Raptor engine.
I *think* 23 feet diameter is bigger than the loading gauge for US railways and highways (a design constraint for rockets in the past), so it'll have to be constructed near site or transported by barge, as the Shuttle's External Tank was.
Exciting times for the space buff ...
Nick de Bois (Enfield North)
Angie Bray (Ealing Central & Acton)
Mary Macleod (Brentford & Isleworth)
Esther McVey (Wirral West)
Stephen Mosley (City of Chester)
Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster & Fleetwood)
Simon Reevell (Dewsbury)
Lee Scott (Ilford North)
Paul Uppal (Wolverhampton South West)
I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
You heard it here first.
Cheer up, old bean.
Brits don't have to fill out a customs form; by going through the Green channel you are implicitly declaring that you have no goods that attract customs duty (and hence liable to prosecution if you actually are and are caught)
Will be fascinated to see what he does next. I agree that Osborne may well disappear too.
http://cmis.westoxon.gov.uk/cmis/Councillors.aspx
For us it probably made us feel more important and valued and the US agreed to flatter us with it to make us feel better.
From the Destroyers deal of 1940, to Suez, to the Falklands/Grenada the US had always done what's in its own interests.
Good: Bezos giving his plans for future rockets (yay!)
Bad: Cameron standing down
Brilliant: the little 'un having a 3 hour sleep!
@tnewtondunn
Cameron: "Everything you do will become a big distraction from what the govt needs to do for our country". ie, I won't agree with Theresa.
/pedant mode
Boundary review expected to cost Labour around 30 seats and the Lib Dems four. https://t.co/7lJC27MJ47 https://t.co/y3tqgRPKRN
The main areas with major changes will be Wales and the NE (both losing large numbers of seats), London (different combination of borough pairings to previously) and West Mids, Manchester, W & S Yorkshire metropolitan areas (large wards)
Friends say Cameron unhappy at May scrapping his policies & distancing herself from him so obviously. Is that why he's quitting as an MP?
I reckon he's got his eye on the Presidency of the EU.
Momentum Witney
On the anniversary of the triumph of our Great Leader Jeremy Corbyn, Momentum Witney has unseated David Cameron #jeremycallin
Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.
Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
A sense of impudence too......
Manchester will be interesting - its population grew by about 25% (over 100,000, I think) between the last censuses (censi?), almost all close to the city centre. Though how many of these individuals made it onto the electoral register I don't know.
So much money was wasted as NASA directed companies to design different systems that there was not one ounce of political will to develop (NERVA anyone?).
I'm really hopeful that one of these two companies is focused (and rich!) enough to take us the next step, where governments have failed (the US through misdirection, Russia through poverty and China through lack of ambition).
(*) One of a three-part series; the second one about the Shuttle's development comes next!
(**) If you don't want a paper copy, it's available online at http://www.nss.org:8080/resources/library/shuttledecision/index.htm
A good man of whom I have been proud, but who seemingly, like Blair, lost touch with his people in the later years of his PMship...
.@JuliaHB1 @DanielJHannan @David_Cameron Does the European Parliament have Les Centaines de Chilternes or something like?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/24/wiping-out-the-lib-dems-might-have-been-camerons-greatest-strategic-mistake-as-pm/
Mr. Betting, didn't Mr. Eagles say it was his birthday?
Cameron says, unconvincingly, he wants to be remembered for holding the EU referendum.
The one that he lost and resigned over. That one.
Granted, that was due to crossing the floor.
One day I might even do a thread on it.
If not Tim Kaine, then who else could replace Hillary ..... once fancied Paul Ryan for instance is currently available on Betfair at 700.
I can't see Sam letting him take another major role, especially one that'll take him out of the country a great deal. She wants her hubby (and life) back.
They're centrist Liberals, not Tory Modernisers.
Which led to his army being annihilated and his own death by the creative, if horrible, means of having molten gold poured down his throat.
Cameron: the new EU ambassador to Britain?
The last time an ex PM resigned as an MP mid Parliament, his party lost power at the next general election.
#ClutchingAtStraws