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  • So Witney then. A route back for Ed Balls?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cameron resigning as an MP.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    Going back to the polls (although of course it is now 'events, dear boy, events') - Trump +4 in Florida and +1 in Iowa.
  • Looks like Witney has just opened up for Jezza.
  • MaxPB said:

    Making space at Witney for Osborne?

    Nah. He's standing down now.
  • So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Nah. He's standing down now.
    Bother, should have waited for 2020!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm sure Cameron promised to stay on as an MP for another full term...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Nah. He's standing down now.
    Good point...
  • So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?

    TSE
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic: Jeff Bezos has just revealed Blue Origins' next rocket - New Glenn.

    Looks like a serious bit of kit with a decently wide faring and 3.5 million pounds of thrust (Which would make it the most powerful rocket available right now I think)

    That's going to be a really serious rocket: it'll only have slightly less power than SpaceX's Falcon Heavy.

    It looks as though he's skipping 2.5 generations: the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy, and going to compete with whatever SpaceX do with their Raptor engine.

    I *think* 23 feet diameter is bigger than the loading gauge for US railways and highways (a design constraint for rockets in the past), so it'll have to be constructed near site or transported by barge, as the Shuttle's External Tank was.

    Exciting times for the space buff ...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823


    So Witney then. A route back for Ed Balls?

    Only if he runs as a true blue Tory. The constituents of Witney would vote for a monkey wearing a blue rosette.
  • AndyJS said:

    I'm sure Cameron promised to stay on as an MP for another full term...

    Just like he promised to stay on as PM if we voted Leave...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    edited September 2016
    AndyJS said:

    I'm sure Cameron promised to stay on as an MP for another full term...

    Didn't he say that about being PM, not an MP? Then events happened.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    List of the 9 Tory MPs who lost their seats last year:

    Nick de Bois (Enfield North)
    Angie Bray (Ealing Central & Acton)
    Mary Macleod (Brentford & Isleworth)
    Esther McVey (Wirral West)
    Stephen Mosley (City of Chester)
    Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster & Fleetwood)
    Simon Reevell (Dewsbury)
    Lee Scott (Ilford North)
    Paul Uppal (Wolverhampton South West)
  • TSE
    What a terrible birthday present.

    I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
  • So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?

    Nigel Farage?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    tpfkar said:

    Nonsense. The knock-on of the inflexible 5% variation is that several seats have to be altered just to balance out one which isn't in quota. Count the "orphan" wards once we have the full proposals - constituencies containing a single ward from a local authority area, just there to get inside quota. It's the sort of thing that infuriates locally, and you didn't have in anything like the same number, before the 5% rule came in.
    The way to get around this is to allow constituencies to be built on smaller building blocks than wards. I can't see any problem with splitting a ward between more than one constituency, although obviously it's not quite as neat. The building blocks are there - middle- and lower- level super output areas would do the trick.
  • Interesting, as I'm sure Cameron said he's stay on as a backbench MP (although that might've been assuming he departed on his own terms rather than in the aftermath of defeat).
  • David Cameron next Secretary General of The United Nations.

    You heard it here first.
  • Mr. Eagles, happy birthday :)

    Cheer up, old bean.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Nigel Farage?
    Oh dear. In an alternate universe Loathsome won the leadership election and just handed the seat to Farage who joined the Tories on the day she was elected leader.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2016
    RobD said:

    Brits are supposed to fill out customs forms on the way back? Or at least used to? I've only ever walked through the green line without being stopped for anything.
    The big question is what about Brits who want to move abroad to the EU to work, retire or marry someone etc. If they have to go through a visa process then that's a huge loss of rights compared to now.

    Brits don't have to fill out a customs form; by going through the Green channel you are implicitly declaring that you have no goods that attract customs duty (and hence liable to prosecution if you actually are and are caught)
  • Byelection!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One less opponent of grammar schools in the Commons.
  • Well nobody can claim 2016 has been a dull year for politics...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited September 2016
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It's been pointed out that Cameron's resignation might have been a natural corollary of the Tory leadership election ending, as originally planned, on September 9th.

    Will be fascinated to see what he does next. I agree that Osborne may well disappear too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    List of West Oxfordshire councillors:

    http://cmis.westoxon.gov.uk/cmis/Councillors.aspx
  • The reason Dave has quit. He didn't want to vote regularly against Theresa May's government, he didn't want to become the incredible sulk.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    MaxPB said:

    I've never gone through the red channel. But then I've never had anything to declare!
    Not even your genius?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844

    So, which tory who isn't an MP at the moment wants the safest of safe seats for the Tories?

    Maybe one of the soon-to-be-deselected Red Tories :)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307

    The reason Dave has quit. He didn't want to vote regularly against Theresa May's government, he didn't want to become the incredible sulk.

    Oh well, if I can't get a peerage, perhaps I'll get his seat.
  • David Cameron next Secretary General of The United Nations.

    You heard it here first.

    Unlikely. The UN sec generals always tend to come from small to medium countries. The candidates currently standing come from Bulgaria, NZ, Costa Rica, Moldova, Portugal, Serbia, Macedonia, Argentina and Slovenia. There has been talk that it is the turn of a candidate from E Europe.
  • TOPPING said:

    Common heritage means a great deal, the odd war of independence aside, as does a common language (just). I think, however, that the special relationship has over the past few decades manifested itself in joint military adventures of one kind or another.

    I think those days of the US gallivanting around, playing the world policeman role, is over, for better or for worse. But hence the need for a grown up power to endorse such activities will decline. Whether the US saw the UK as being important as an EU member endorsing its military activities, of course we have no idea.
    To be honest, it was a phrase Churchill largely instigated for personal and historical reasons he saw the English speaking people's as at the core of the world's history.

    For us it probably made us feel more important and valued and the US agreed to flatter us with it to make us feel better.

    From the Destroyers deal of 1940, to Suez, to the Falklands/Grenada the US had always done what's in its own interests.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Perhaps the trigger for Dave resigning is that Witney is also going to be abolished in the boundary shake-up?
  • David Cameron next Secretary General of The United Nations.

    You heard it here first.

    I presume you are well informed.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Now up to 1983 level!
    Not quite - Labour managed 28.3% in 1983! On the other hand, national electoral support is more fragmented generally than back then.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    JohnO said:

    Oh well, if I can't get a peerage, perhaps I'll get his seat.
    Why not both? Hereditary peerages no longer bar you from standing as an MP!
  • Mr. Eagles, happy birthday :)
    Cheer up, old bean.

    Really?
  • Perhaps the trigger for Dave resigning is that Witney is also going to be abolished in the boundary shake-up?

    Why? He could just not contest the seat next time (who thought he was going to anyway?)
  • Well, that was quite an hour:
    Good: Bezos giving his plans for future rockets (yay!)
    Bad: Cameron standing down
    Brilliant: the little 'un having a 3 hour sleep!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Did David Cameron spend more time as PM than he did as an MP?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cameron out of politics before the age of 50. His 50th birthday is on 9th October.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    That's going to be a really serious rocket: it'll only have slightly less power than SpaceX's Falcon Heavy.

    It looks as though he's skipping 2.5 generations: the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy, and going to compete with whatever SpaceX do with their Raptor engine.

    I *think* 23 feet diameter is bigger than the loading gauge for US railways and highways (a design constraint for rockets in the past), so it'll have to be constructed near site or transported by barge, as the Shuttle's External Tank was.

    Exciting times for the space buff ...
    The power is a bit less than the Falcon Heavy, but the faring is mahoosive !
  • I wonder if Cameron paid May the courtesy of letting her know first? I can't see that he wouldn't have ... would he?
  • Tom Newton Dunn ✔
    @tnewtondunn
    Cameron: "Everything you do will become a big distraction from what the govt needs to do for our country". ie, I won't agree with Theresa.
  • taffys said:

    Did David Cameron spend more time as PM than he did as an MP?

    No.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    taffys said:

    Did David Cameron spend more time as PM than he did as an MP?

    No, since he was an MP while being PM.
    /pedant mode
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Yeah, the timing does seem to be pretty convenient.

    Not really. He will have to resign his seat if he wants to stand
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    George Eaton
    Boundary review expected to cost Labour around 30 seats and the Lib Dems four. https://t.co/7lJC27MJ47 https://t.co/y3tqgRPKRN
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Perhaps the trigger for Dave resigning is that Witney is also going to be abolished in the boundary shake-up?

    Very unlikely, it has almost the right number of voters, as do most Oxfordshire constituencies.
  • Cookie said:

    The way to get around this is to allow constituencies to be built on smaller building blocks than wards. I can't see any problem with splitting a ward between more than one constituency, although obviously it's not quite as neat. The building blocks are there - middle- and lower- level super output areas would do the trick.
    The English boundary commission have said they will split wards this time. Many of the Tory shires have the right number of constituencies so only need minor tweaking (e.g. Berkshire only requires moving one ward from Slough to Windsor).

    The main areas with major changes will be Wales and the NE (both losing large numbers of seats), London (different combination of borough pairings to previously) and West Mids, Manchester, W & S Yorkshire metropolitan areas (large wards)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Perhaps the trigger for Dave resigning is that Witney is also going to be abolished in the boundary shake-up?

    Witney is above average, although perhaps the surrounding constituencies are not?
  • Nick Robinson ✔ @bbcnickrobinson
    Friends say Cameron unhappy at May scrapping his policies & distancing herself from him so obviously. Is that why he's quitting as an MP?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Wondering if David Milliband might win it.
  • AndyJS said:

    Cameron out of politics before the age of 50. His 50th birthday is on 9th October.

    Lucky man. He has a lot to look forward to.

  • I'm really struggling to believe Cameron is going for SecGen of the UN.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited September 2016

    I'm really struggling to believe Cameron is going for SecGen of the UN.

    He's not.

    I reckon he's got his eye on the Presidency of the EU.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :smiley:

    Momentum Witney
    On the anniversary of the triumph of our Great Leader Jeremy Corbyn, Momentum Witney has unseated David Cameron #jeremycallin
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cameron's new position will be Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    I presume you are well informed.
    "continue in public service" several times in his interview.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if David Milliband might win it.

    Much as that would allow me to fully green up my next Labour leader book, I'd highly doubt it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    What a terrible birthday present.

    I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
    Happy Birthday!

    Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.

    A sense of impudence too...... :)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    edited September 2016

    The English boundary commission have said they will split wards this time. Many of the Tory shires have the right number of constituencies so only need minor tweaking (e.g. Berkshire only requires moving one ward from Slough to Windsor).

    The main areas with major changes will be Wales and the NE (both losing large numbers of seats), London (different combination of borough pairings to previously) and West Mids, Manchester, W & S Yorkshire metropolitan areas (large wards)
    Oh, ok - thanks. In 2013 they struggled dreadfully with this - there were various local authorities (eg East and West Cheshire) where wards were so large and unhelpfully sized that they almost all had to cross boundaries purely so they could all have a small ward from an adjacent district to arrive at the allotted electorate.

    Manchester will be interesting - its population grew by about 25% (over 100,000, I think) between the last censuses (censi?), almost all close to the city centre. Though how many of these individuals made it onto the electoral register I don't know.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    Cyclefree said:

    Happy Birthday!

    Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.

    A sense of impudence too...... :)
    Ann Coulter?
  • Pulpstar said:

    The power is a bit less than the Falcon Heavy, but the faring is mahoosive !
    I'm currently reading Heppenheimer's 'The Space Shuttle Decision 1965-1972' (**), an official NASA book about how the Shuttle came about. (*) It tells quite a story about how rocket development was let down by a lack of direction from politicians and the top of NASA.

    So much money was wasted as NASA directed companies to design different systems that there was not one ounce of political will to develop (NERVA anyone?).

    I'm really hopeful that one of these two companies is focused (and rich!) enough to take us the next step, where governments have failed (the US through misdirection, Russia through poverty and China through lack of ambition).

    (*) One of a three-part series; the second one about the Shuttle's development comes next!
    (**) If you don't want a paper copy, it's available online at http://www.nss.org:8080/resources/library/shuttledecision/index.htm
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited September 2016
    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Happy Birthday!

    Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.

    A sense of impudence too...... :)
    So the Witney nominations are going to be between you and JohnO, Witney Tory Association don't know how lucky they are.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.

    Yes, but no way will they select Dan.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Cyclefree said:

    Happy Birthday!

    Now - with all due respect to you, your Tory-ness and your shoes - I think that we need an eloquent, experienced lady for the Witney seat. Someone tough-minded, someone who can spot bullshit and bullshitters at a thousand paces, someone used to dealing with egomaniacs with more puff than substance, someone with a sense of history and knowledge of other countries and, crucial this, someone who went to neither Eton nor a grammar school, etc. Being a Tory is a mere detail and really quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things.

    A sense of impudence too...... :)
    But could you handle the pay cut Ms Cyclefree?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    Sean_F said:

    Ann Coulter?
    Louise Mensch - she misses the old place.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Surprised and a little disappointed by Dave's resignation as an MP.

    A good man of whom I have been proud, but who seemingly, like Blair, lost touch with his people in the later years of his PMship...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    Yet, paradoxically, it would have been better for him had he not destroyed the Lib Dems.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Anyone else agree with me that @DanielJHannan should run for @David_Cameron 's safe Witney seat...? Need more like Dan in Westminster.

    Dan Hannan! Yes. I think he's great.
  • Patrick said:

    Dan Hannan! Yes. I think he's great.
    What a great idea.
  • What a terrible birthday present.

    I shall wear black for the rest of the day.
    Happy Birthday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Shame about Cameron. Given his age, after perhaps the next election I could easily see him being senior Cabinet member, and a good one.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Charles Cross
    .@JuliaHB1 @DanielJHannan @David_Cameron Does the European Parliament have Les Centaines de Chilternes or something like?
  • Sean_F said:

    Yet, paradoxically, it would have been better for him had he not destroyed the Lib Dems.
    Yup, I wrote about that a few weeks ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/24/wiping-out-the-lib-dems-might-have-been-camerons-greatest-strategic-mistake-as-pm/
  • Mr. Royale, Hannan should be in the Commons. Hope he gets in next time (indeed, that he stands).

    Mr. Betting, didn't Mr. Eagles say it was his birthday?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chris Terry
    Cameron says, unconvincingly, he wants to be remembered for holding the EU referendum.

    The one that he lost and resigned over. That one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe Douglas Hurd would like his old constituency back again.
  • TOPPING said:

    "continue in public service" several times in his interview.
    Interesting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Yup, I wrote about that a few weeks ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/24/wiping-out-the-lib-dems-might-have-been-camerons-greatest-strategic-mistake-as-pm/
    Was it even intentional? Targeting the LDs was, but that it would be so successful?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    JohnO said:

    Oh well, if I can't get a peerage, perhaps I'll get his seat.
    How nailed-on are the Tories here? I'm still struggling to move out of the 1989-2014 mindset wherein the governing Conservatives always lost by-elections, no matter how safe. But it's hard to see any of the opposition parties making the enormous heave required here?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    This could all be very good news for May. If the Cameroons lose Dave and Osborne, the head has been cut off the snake, and I don't see any organised rebellion forming from the remnants. With Gove appearing to convert over Grammar Schools as well, she may find Tory 'Wet'/Moderniser opposition no longer much of an issue, and will be more able to focus on pleasing the Brexiteers. A true blue Tory government from May seems more and more likely by the day.
  • RobD said:

    Witney is above average, although perhaps the surrounding constituencies are not?
    Oxfordshire keeps 6 seats, however, there will need to be some shuffling around as Banbury constituency is too large and so Banbury and Bicester will have to be split up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Cookie said:

    How nailed-on are the Tories here? I'm still struggling to move out of the 1989-2014 mindset wherein the governing Conservatives always lost by-elections, no matter how safe. But it's hard to see any of the opposition parties making the enormous heave required here?
    Hey, WItney has had several years of Labour representation.

    Granted, that was due to crossing the floor.
  • kle4 said:

    Was it even intentional? Targeting the LDs was, but that it would be so successful?
    He hired Sir Lynton Crosby to ensure it happened.

    One day I might even do a thread on it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    He has undoubtedly shown himself to be a barefaced liar when it comes to declaring his intentions.
  • Off Topic (Bored with discussing Corbyn ceaselessly)

    If not Tim Kaine, then who else could replace Hillary ..... once fancied Paul Ryan for instance is currently available on Betfair at 700.
  • Nick Robinson ✔ @bbcnickrobinson
    Friends say Cameron unhappy at May scrapping his policies & distancing herself from him so obviously. Is that why he's quitting as an MP?

    Probably many reasons. His family's still young.

    I can't see Sam letting him take another major role, especially one that'll take him out of the country a great deal. She wants her hubby (and life) back.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    This could all be very good news for May. If the Cameroons lose Dave and Osborne, the head has been cut off the snake, and I don't see any organised rebellion forming from the remnants. With Gove appearing to convert over Grammar Schools as well, she may find Tory 'Wet'/Moderniser opposition no longer much of an issue, and will be more able to focus on pleasing the Brexiteers. A true blue Tory government from May seems more and more likely by the day.

    May was moderniser way before Cameron and Osborne got involved.

    They're centrist Liberals, not Tory Modernisers.
  • Miss Plato, bit like Crassus saying he wants to be remembered for when he went to avenge his son.

    Which led to his army being annihilated and his own death by the creative, if horrible, means of having molten gold poured down his throat.

  • Cameron: the new EU ambassador to Britain?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    This could all be very good news for May. If the Cameroons lose Dave and Osborne, the head has been cut off the snake, and I don't see any organised rebellion forming from the remnants. With Gove appearing to convert over Grammar Schools as well, she may find Tory 'Wet'/Moderniser opposition no longer much of an issue, and will be more able to focus on pleasing the Brexiteers. A true blue Tory government from May seems more and more likely by the day.

    But an interesting by election in a seat where leave only just won.
  • justin124 said:

    He has undoubtedly shown himself to be a barefaced liar when it comes to declaring his intentions.
    This is also good for Labour in 2020.

    The last time an ex PM resigned as an MP mid Parliament, his party lost power at the next general election.

    #ClutchingAtStraws
This discussion has been closed.