politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why in spite of the YouGov selectorate poll Don Brind still
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why in spite of the YouGov selectorate poll Don Brind still thinks the LAB race is too close to call.
Mike Smithson doesn’t pay me to play safe. Or to put it another way, I write for the prestige of appearing on PB but Mike is more than happy for me to stick my neck out.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
You have been warned ....
Chortle ..
I've completed four very detailed YouGov's aimed at the Party member/supporter demographic this year. YouGov's polling for the last Labour leader election was almost spot on.
And IIRC there was discussion FPT about a photo of Smith's internal numbers on display behind a shot of him. The gist was that YouGov's numbers are in line with his - and it's not close.
Worth noting that Don Brind is a Press Officer for Saving Labour.
He was a big pal of JC's in those days. Anyone know what they fell out over?
That said, I am more certain than ever that Corbyn is not going to destroy Labour. It'll take a bit of time and will gift what is shaping up to be a very poor government the next general election, but there are enough floating Corbynistas out there giving him one more chance to ensure that his inevitable squandering of the goodwill he has will prove terminal for him.
Are you from the EU?
Yes +100 points
Not one for my book.
http://www.keithvazmp.com/contact-me/
Keith Vaz MP
123 Belgrave Road
Leicester, LE4 6AS
Check it out on Streetview. TV footage from there yesterday, voxpops up and down the Golden Mile. Innit?
Or have I missed something?
http://maps.google.com/maps?layer=c&panoid=mp5TNcRNWmm9M7UIGIzw3A&cbp=1,345.72577,,3.0,0.68553925
This is the one opposite the Silver Star office, the charity mentioned in reports. He seems to have more than one office. This is the one the Silver Star van parks at.
With Labour deserting the field of battle, I wouldn't mind the SNP being designated as the official opposition in Parliament. We are likely to hear more sense from them.
I always felt there was very little 'liberal' in the Liberal Democrats. Their pathetic hero-worship of a nasty piece of work like Sturgeon just illustrates that.
The allegation was improper use of Silver Star funds to pay for "other activities", I was pointing out how close Vaz is to that organisation physically from his office.
Indeed if you twirl the streetview link I posted you can see the Silver Star office.
Mr. Brind, the good thing about sticking your neck out is that, like Kryten, you can fully engage smug mode if you're right.
If Brexit breaks up the UK (as seems likely), I shall be sorry. Leavers cannot say that they weren't warned.
Foreign policy is a reserved matter for Westminster and Scotland voted to stay in the Union.
If Scotland wishes to have its own independent foreign policy then it can, of course, vote for independence.
Next.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37270135
1. The problems that Don has set out in terms of the Saving Labour recruits and the treatment of member-supporter switchers. There is a bit of evidence in the YouGov polling tables for the reweighting, comparing the weighted and unweighted numbers.
2. Whether YouGov used responses from people who have been disqualified from voting under the "purge" of new sign ups that may have been more significant than we realise - it has been significant enough to get Corbyn's people hot and bothered.
3. The boost in recent recruits has been facilitated by the internet, yet there are still a significant number of long standing often more elderly members who just don't use the internet. Our local CLP has great difficulty contacting about 15% of members who haven't supplied an internet address, so YouGov will have had the same problem. They will break heavily for Smith.
Putting all this into the mix, I still though can't get close to Don's assertion that the election is too close to call. The margins in the YouGov poll were just too great. Adding in a further dose of cold water to offset my confirmation bias, I now expect Smith to get 40% to 45% and to fall just short of carrying the fully paid up membership. If Smith did somehow manage to carry the latter, with Corbyn reliant on supporters in order to win, it would still be a huge blow to Corbyn's authority.
( warning cartoon contains nudity and "flashing" images which cannot be ......."unseen")
Oh, wait...
Maybe you mean the way they dominate a
majorityminority of seats at Holyrood?I suppose it would not if a Brexit deal kept access to the Single Market alongside the 4 freedoms, but I cannot see May agreeing that.
It looks like the end of the UK to me, but that is what was voted for in June.
May is crafting a new post Brexit synthesis of Leave and Remain voters. She'll succeed unless pro Europeans cast it as a thesis and come up with there own coherent antithesis. So far only Sturgeon and Open Britain have.
I'm part of the dwindling minority of white Britons who see Britishness as their primary identity. As I observe in my post Sturgeon's only real goal is destroying the most successful political Union in human history. Perhaps this is " desperate admiration " but if you disagree with my analysis of what's going on do better than that.
I hope Scotland remains in the UK, but if the desires of England/Wales and Scotland have diverged so much it's impossible for us to remain in one nation-state, it should end.
The UK cannot either permit Scotland to exercise veto rights over British policy, nor can it force Scotland to remain an unwilling member of the UK.
As a Leave voter, I'm somewhat more comfortable with the prospect of post-independence [for Scotland] relations, providing (as with the EU) daft sods on either side don't end up making decisions.
Edited extra bit: and it's worth noting that, when giving the vote, Scots opted to remain in the UK.
A very good excuse for a rerun is not a mandate to leave the uk in order to stay in the eu. You clearly accept that, precisely because the rerun woukd need to happen. If she had a mandate to stay in the eu a rerun woukd not be needed.
I hope May tells him (or Clinton, who will doubtless be similiar) to jog on next time Uncle Sam wants our help. I also hope the US falls flat on its face with TTIP.
Special relationship my arse.
But, if Scottish membership of the EU is deemed to be more important than a 300 year old political union within its own home islands, then that Union was doomed anyway.
I've said it before - if I had thought remaining in the eu would guarantee Scotland remaining in the uk, I'd have voted remain.
...none.
That's domination in anyone's book.
Which is it?
Less than 2 years ago Scotland almost voted to leave and break up the UK arbitrarily without any other parts of this Union given a say. This is despite being told they would not have automatic membership to the EU after doing so and would have to apply as if a new member.
They had every right to take that vote and then proceed in any way they democratically chose but lets just be a bit careful how we start to rewrite history here and blame a full referendum on " break ups"
@paddyashdown: The Tory Brexit brownshirts are stirring. Betrayal is the word most likely to be heard in the run up to the Tory Conference.
@nickeardleybbc: Nicola Sturgeon offers "coalition" with like-minded UK ministers who want to stay in European single market https://t.co/8XY2V5bRzW
I should hope the first five words are sufficient, to be honest.
That's if you're being extremely kind to fudger May. And here we can see the awful weakness of May. Her total inability to take a radical decision, run with it and take responsibility for it. Just in case, you know, it goes wrong. In which case it will be someone else's fault completely.
She doesn;t want hard Brexit, she doesn;t want soft Brexit. She wants a kind of soft Brexit with hardish characteristics. Possibly. Or not. Um.....
The press are already getting restive that leavers are being sold down the river.
May is UKIP's preferred candidate.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/italy-post-race-analysis-2016.html
On May: nothing firm has been said, either way.
Music to UKIP's ears.
I'm as keen on *big words* as the average PBer - and very occasionally look one up - however you're getting close to Pseuds Corner recently.
And it won;'t be, because May hates making firm decisions.
But he is a pompous prat, isn't he?
It's no wonder he's such a divisive figure in the US.
To what extent do we know that the alleged 120,000 who signed up through Saving Labour *were* all anti-Corbyn? That's Don's working assumption but it's at the extreme end of the conclusions that might be drawn. From that number:
- How many thought 'Saving Labour' meant saving Corbyn? Even if they visited the site under a false impression, the link was still good for them.
- How many were already registered under some existing membership arrangement and have since had their vote via that registration withdrawn?
- How many will vote when given their chance? Is a 100% turnout realistic?
- How many have seen Smith since signing up and been disillusioned in some way, sufficient to swing their vote to Corbyn, on top of the abstentions?
And then of course there's the other side of the equation. Even if the 120k do all support Smith, would it overturn Corbyn's majority with the rest of the selectorate?
I accept that methodologically, this is a hard election for YouGov or anyone else to poll. All the same, I think it would be unprecedented for them to be as far out as 12% on a vote share. The reality is that whereas for something like Brexit or the 2015GE, when the result is very tight and being slightly out in the figures flips the outcome, here, even if YouGov are double the MoE out in Corbyn's lead, that would still leave him ahead by double-figures.
May, looking for as easy a ride as possible, will probably have to go for a harder Brexit than she would like, if not as hard as the hardest want.
My favourite observation of his platitudes remains this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5hmqDuuCRk
Good day all.