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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Everybody salsa for a Labour King over the water
No, this isn’t a shameless attempt to make John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN list, again, but I do think appearing on this year’s Strictly Come Dancing might help Ed Balls reputation and popularity with the public and introduce him to the wider public that don’t follow politics intimately.
Comments
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You're a one man campaign TSE!!0
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Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility0
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This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).
He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.0 -
A further obstacle is that he would have to be selected for a winnable seat.HYUFD said:Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility
Most likely Labour will have a chicken run for the new boundaries as well as deselections plus a net loss of over 50 MPs.
Not sure Ed can do that or would want to do that. More likely that He will raise the standard of househusband for that little pixie of Yvette.0 -
He'd need to find a seat first. With the reduction in MPs and the rumoured deselections, as well as the possibility of a Tory landslide, where would Balls find to stand?HYUFD said:Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility
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Indeed, he has also recently accepted an academic position at Harvard which I would imagine is far more amenable than serving as a backbencher in Corbyn's Labour Party even in the unlikely event he did find a seat and may well pay more toofoxinsoxuk said:
A further obstacle is that he would have to be selected for a winnable seat.HYUFD said:Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility
Most likely Labour will have a chicken run for the new boundaries as well as deselections plus a net loss of over 50 MPs.
Not sure Ed can do that or would want to do that. More likely that He will raise the standard of househusband for that little pixie of Yvette.0 -
Is that a spoof? Surely Corbyn would be better off concentrating on poorer areas of the North, or at least the Midlands marginals?nunu said:0 -
I tend to agree.Danny565 said:This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).
He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.
First, it looks to me as though Balls is trying to emulate Portillo, and move from being a divisive political figure to being a benign media entertainer. It pays better and is less stressful.
Second, given where it is, Labour probably needs 8 to 10 years hard work to become electable again. Balls is too old. Even if he returned, there is too much heavy-lifting to be done before any rewards of real power can be reaped.
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Since he hit the big time, I thought Ed went by the stage name ‘Glitter Balls..?0
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Absence makes the heart grow fonder.Danny565 said:This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).
He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.
Except for Bill, where absence makes the heart go wander.0 -
I was never an Ed Balls fan but my opinion of his has changed a lot since he was forced out of politics. Every interview I have seen since he does seem kind of a different person, more softer and I think it comes across that he seems to be enjoying life a bit more outside the word of politics.
Honestly I am not sure he would want to return.0 -
Mr. 83, like someone trying to improve his image.
Whining about being bullied by Cameron was not very convincing.
FPT: Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).
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It's not a rerating of Balls so much as a repositioning of Labour's standards. Balls looks better than in 2015 because the quality of Labour's leadership is so very poor and the challengers to that leadership is is possibly worse. Balls looks like a Titan of intellect and leadership compared to Corbyn and Smith. His naturally Eurosceptic nature (it was his cunning that kept us out of the Eurozone) is a good fit to Labour and, stammer aside, he speaks well on subjects that Labour have been weak on, particularly immigration and the economy. However, that doesn't mean I'd be putting money on at anything less than 250/1 for Ed Balls to be the next Labour leader. He's not in Parliament and he doesn't seem interested in coming back to politics.Danny565 said:This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).
He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.0 -
Indeed, both Balls and $400 000 a year Manhattan based David Miliband have absolutely zero incentive at all to return to Westminster to become backbench opposition MPs with no immediate prospect of Labour returning to power as long as it remains so enamoured with Corbyn and the hard leftMaxPB said:
It's not a rerating of Balls so much as a repositioning of Labour's standards. Balls looks better than in 2015 because the quality of Labour's leadership is so very poor and the challengers to that leadership is is possibly worse. Balls looks like a Titan of intellect and leadership compared to Corbyn and Smith. His naturally Eurosceptic nature (it was his cunning that kept us out of the Eurozone) is a good fit to Labour and, stammer aside, he speaks well on subjects that Labour have been weak on, particularly immigration and the economy. However, that doesn't mean I'd be putting money on at anything less than 250/1 for Ed Balls to be the next Labour leader. He's not in Parliament and he doesn't seem interested in coming back to politics.Danny565 said:This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).
He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.0 -
Exactly, not that Balls will even try to find one anywaySandpit said:
He'd need to find a seat first. With the reduction in MPs and the rumoured deselections, as well as the possibility of a Tory landslide, where would Balls find to stand?HYUFD said:Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility
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"Disco Balls" are covered in mirrors, not glitter...SimonStClare said:Since he hit the big time, I thought Ed went by the stage name ‘Glitter Balls..?
/pedant mode0 -
For Labour to return to power, they first need the right environment. They need the Tories to screw up Brexit, & the fresh paint of the SNP to become chipped and dirty. They need both of these things to happen.
Then, they need a fresh vision of a left-of-centre agenda from an appealing new generation of Labour politicians, untainted with past failure, who have accepted the referendum result.
This all takes time. I think the Labour Party will pull through, but the next Labour PM is probably aged 30 to 35 at the moment.0 -
He's waving a red rag rather than a red flag at anyone reading that in the Midlands or North. At one time Labour used to advocate policies aimed at closing not widening the North-South divide.Sandpit said:
Is that a spoof? Surely Corbyn would be better off concentrating on poorer areas of the North, or at least the Midlands marginals?nunu said:
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Oh my aunt Fanny, Strictly has come around again. Well there won't be anyone this year as glamourous and engaging as Helen George was in last years event, so I will take it or leave it.0
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Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html0 -
.... and will be aged 80-85 when they become PM?YBarddCwsc said:For Labour to return to power, they first need the right environment. They need the Tories to screw up Brexit, & the fresh paint of the SNP to become chipped and dirty. They need both of these things to happen.
Then, they need a fresh vision of a left-of-centre agenda from an appealing new generation of Labour politicians, untainted with past failure, who have accepted the referendum result.
This all takes time. I think the Labour Party will pull through, but the next Labour PM is probably aged 30 to 35 at the moment.0 -
I know it's bad to laugh at these things, but people like Eddie Izzard really do bring it on themselves in opposing the will of the people. Especially when dressed in drag.HYUFD said:Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html0 -
Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?0
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Indeed.SouthamObserver said:Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
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The sight of Eddie Izzard and Peter Tatchell leading the London march said it allSandpit said:
I know it's bad to laugh at these things, but people like Eddie Izzard really do bring it on themselves in opposing the will of the people. Especially when dressed in drag.HYUFD said:Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html0 -
With regard to Balls losing his zest for politics, surely the same thing has happened to Yvette?
During last years’ leadership election, it never looked to me as though Yvette actually wanted to win. It looked as though she had been pressurised to stand by her supporters, but she didn’t actually want the job.
Wasn’t she on holiday with her family for some of the campaigning period, while Jeremy was revving up in meetings up and down the country?
Perhaps it is as simple as that. Yvette and Ed are more interested right now in their family (growing children, elderly parents needing support).0 -
Mr. Sandpit, didn't watch it at the time of broadcast, but there were two telling moments during Izzard's gesticulating verbal diarrhoea on Question Time. First was when he cited Obama as if he were Second Coming of Jesus, and people laughed. Second was when someone shouted "Shut up!" at Izzard, and the audience applauded.0
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If he's actively trying to improve his image it's probably working, but I am not sure he is deliberately doing it in order to return to Politics. I just think he is having a good time away from the stress of that world.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 83, like someone trying to improve his image.
Whining about being bullied by Cameron was not very convincing.
FPT: Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).
I guess we will have to wait and see, if he tries to go for a seat then it's obvious what his real motives are.
Yeah I have heard mixed reviews as well but I am enjoying it so far. I don't blame you there are a lot of good games coming out now in in the next few months/early next year. I have Elite Dangerous, Fallout 4 and this at the moment all taking my time up.0 -
Well quite, leaving politics and letting your hair down a la Widecombe must be quite liberatingSouthamObserver said:Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
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I think modern politics is becoming much more polarised, something that brings out the worst in otherwise good people. I can't imagine for a minute that someone like Ed Balls would want to get back in that bearpit. Unfortunately for Labour, which is about to be purged of the non-believers.SimonStClare said:
Well quite, leaving politics and letting your hair down a la Widecombe must be quite liberatingSouthamObserver said:Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
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Mr. 83, aye, can be hard deciding not only what to get, but whether holding off for a GOTY version can make sense. I may try that with XCOM 2, although I really like the look of it, because there's plenty of DLC but none on the standard PS4 release.0
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@Coral: BREAKING: Jenson Button retires from racing in F1. https://t.co/1SQUaxXAaV0
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F1: just broken so unconfirmed, but Button may have retired from F1.
No dogs in this fight myself, but if you've got an account with a drivers' market up, give it a look.
Edited extra bit: ha, beaten by Mr. P.
Serves me right for writing a second sentence
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Ed says in today's Guardian that he would give it all up tomorrow (dancing, lecturing, marathons etc) except Norwich job to go back to politics, if the Labour Party felt he was part of the answer. He's not lost enthusiasm imho. He's waiting for sanity, in the party, to return.YBarddCwsc said:With regard to Balls losing his zest for politics, surely the same thing has happened to Yvette?
During last years’ leadership election, it never looked to me as though Yvette actually wanted to win. It looked as though she had been pressurised to stand by her supporters, but she didn’t actually want the job.
Wasn’t she on holiday with her family for some of the campaigning period, while Jeremy was revving up in meetings up and down the country?
Perhaps it is as simple as that. Yvette and Ed are more interested right now in their family (growing children, elderly parents needing support).
I've been on for some time, but at a measly 60/1 compared today's odds. Might top up.0 -
Ooh, interesting. Top Gear beckons maybe?Scott_P said:@Coral: BREAKING: Jenson Button retires from racing in F1. https://t.co/1SQUaxXAaV
Really pleased to have tickets to the last race of the season, thanks for the memories Jenson and Filipe
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Unfinished business, power, intellectual challenge. There's reasons.SouthamObserver said:Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
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F1: it seems Button *may* race again n 2018.0
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Business is always unfinished, power is at least 8 years away, there are intellectual challenges aplenty elsewhere (with less hassle than in the Labour party).rottenborough said:
Unfinished business, power, intellectual challenge. There's reasons.SouthamObserver said:Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
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Mr. P, slow and steady wins the race.
Ah, seems the team has a contract with Button. He'll be reserve next year, and an option for 2018.0 -
Not sure those are enough for Balls to come back though, not when facing a very tough challenge vs the Tories on new boundaries. There's no guarantee he will win in 2025 if he were leader.rottenborough said:
Unfinished business, power, intellectual challenge. There's reasons.SouthamObserver said:Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
Balls will go on the US lecture circuit for a while, take some technocratic role at an international institution and spend more time with his family. I wouldn't be surprised if Yvette follows suit.0 -
ES - Bizarre moment Eddie Izzard grapples with protester who snatches his pink beret.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/march-for-europe-bizarre-moment-eddie-izzard-grapples-with-protester-who-snatches-his-pink-beret-a3335956.html
March4Europe descends into a very British farce as aged transvestite gives chase in 3” heels.0 -
Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump
) 0 -
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/772083305873281024Morris_Dancer said:F1: just broken so unconfirmed, but Button may have retired from F1.
No dogs in this fight myself, but if you've got an account with a drivers' market up, give it a look.
Edited extra bit: ha, beaten by Mr. P.
Serves me right for writing a second sentence
The thing is I can imagine that Jenson would be quite good as a team manager...0 -
So McLaren are dropping him for next year, presumably in favour of Vandoorne? Ouch if true, as the car is expected to be substantially quicker in 2017.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, slow and steady wins the race.
Ah, seems the team has a contract with Button. He'll be reserve next year, and an option for 2018.
Maybe he'll doWEC, some TV work andconsultancy/testing at Woking then, but dropping him seems harsh on the lad.0 -
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Mr. Sandpit, great for McLaren though. Two experienced drivers developing the car, plus a talented (and presumably cheaper) youngster.
Mr. Eek, possibly. He would have to put a stake through Ron Dennis' heart first, though. [Or lead another team].0 -
@sarahholtf1: The Stoff is announced as Alonso's 2017 McLaren teammate #F1 https://t.co/JVyuE7K0q0Sandpit said:So McLaren are dropping him for next year, presumably in favour of Vandoorne?
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There is enormous inertia in FPTP.Innocent_Abroad said:Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump
)
It took 15-20 years of infighting to reduce the old Liberals from Government to a shrivelled third party.0 -
To be fair on Izzard, he is a good athelete!SimonStClare said:ES - Bizarre moment Eddie Izzard grapples with protester who snatches his pink beret.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/march-for-europe-bizarre-moment-eddie-izzard-grapples-with-protester-who-snatches-his-pink-beret-a3335956.html
March4Europe descends into a very British farce as aged transvestite gives chase in 3” heels.0 -
Mr. Cwsc, no bad thing to have a measure of stability in the political system.0
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F1: just perusing markets but thought it might be interesting to reflect on the way Ferrari's drivers' odds (to win) have altered.
Post third practice they fell from 17 and 29 (Vettel and Raikkonen respectively) to 15 and 17. That made sense as the car was clearly superior to the Red Bull and inferior to the Mercedes. Qualifying confirmed this, yet the odds have stretched to 17 and 26 again.
The Red Bulls had been around 15/17 or so prior to practice and are now 67 each, but that just makes the long Ferrari odds more perplexing. Maybe it's just a function of trying to attract bets rather than reflecting what the bookie thinks the chances are.0 -
Showa what a terrible situation labour are in if Ed balls is considered at all a possibility for leadership. He is carrying more baggage than a 777 flight from London to Delhi.0
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Ron really attends races outside Europe nowadays if Jenson is at all events I expect him to be doing a fair bit of media..Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, great for McLaren though. Two experienced drivers developing the car, plus a talented (and presumably cheaper) youngster.
Mr. Eek, possibly. He would have to put a stake through Ron Dennis' heart first, though. [Or lead another team].0 -
Interesting observation. I assume that the odds on the two Mercedes cars have shortened significantly as others have gone out, reflecting the fact that there's almost a second between the German and Italian cars.Morris_Dancer said:F1: just perusing markets but thought it might be interesting to reflect on the way Ferrari's drivers' odds (to win) have altered.
Post third practice they fell from 17 and 29 (Vettel and Raikkonen respectively) to 15 and 17. That made sense as the car was clearly superior to the Red Bull and inferior to the Mercedes. Qualifying confirmed this, yet the odds have stretched to 17 and 26 again.
The Red Bulls had been around 15/17 or so prior to practice and are now 67 each, but that just makes the long Ferrari odds more perplexing. Maybe it's just a function of trying to attract bets rather than reflecting what the bookie thinks the chances are.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, not sure, I actually paid the least attention to the Mercedes. I don't think their odds have changed a huge amount (probably Hamilton shortened and Rosberg lengthened).0
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That's a spiffing UrlHYUFD said:Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html
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As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.TheWhiteRabbit said:You're a one man campaign TSE!!
I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.0 -
Surely the question here is not whether Balls actually stands much of a chance - I agree with the general view that he does not - but whether, as Labour goes from bad to worse and Balls (may) get lots of non-political exposure on the dancing programme, whether his odds might come in significantly over the next few weeks sufficient to merit backing him as a trading bet?0
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Isn't it quasi-AV?TheScreamingEagles said:
As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.TheWhiteRabbit said:You're a one man campaign TSE!!
I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses. 0 -
First thing I noticed when he stood on the platform. Very ill advised footwear choice.SimonStClare said:ES - Bizarre moment Eddie Izzard grapples with protester who snatches his pink beret.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/march-for-europe-bizarre-moment-eddie-izzard-grapples-with-protester-who-snatches-his-pink-beret-a3335956.html
March4Europe descends into a very British farce as aged transvestite gives chase in 3” heels.0 -
There is a great deal of ruin in a political party, as Adam Smith didn't say.YBarddCwsc said:
There is enormous inertia in FPTP.Innocent_Abroad said:Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump
)
It took 15-20 years of infighting to reduce the old Liberals from Government to a shrivelled third party.0 -
It does have some similarities with AV, however we have some super voters in Strictly, whose votes carry more weight than everybody else, especially in the shortlisting stage.RobD said:
Isn't it quasi-AV?TheScreamingEagles said:
As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.TheWhiteRabbit said:You're a one man campaign TSE!!
I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.0 -
Whatever his faults - and being seagle from Bromley - I have great respect for the charity-work Eddie Izzard does. I also agree with his 'mongrel nation' thesis.
As for the [MODERATED] who tried to assault him: EI can run multiple-marathons in a stupid time-envelope. All sides need to engage their brains first....0 -
Yes, very comforting to see people like that fronting Continuity Remain (!).HYUFD said:
The sight of Eddie Izzard and Peter Tatchell leading the London march said it allSandpit said:
I know it's bad to laugh at these things, but people like Eddie Izzard really do bring it on themselves in opposing the will of the people. Especially when dressed in drag.HYUFD said:Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html0 -
F1: I wish every race had an obviously mispriced market like the Hungarian safety car. Least likely circuit for one, but it was odds against. Super.
Anyway, got two bets I'm looking at, both of which are essentially guesswork. It's interesting to note I still have no idea what I'm doing after eight years, though. Anyway, I'll see if I can pick one, though it may take me a while [got one or two other things to do as well].0 -
Did he run the marathons in high heels?FluffyThoughts said:Whatever his faults - and being seagle from Bromley - I have great respect for the charity-work Eddie Izzard does. I also agree with his 'mongrel nation' thesis.
As for the [MODERATED] who tried to assault him: EI can run multiple-marathons in a stupid time-envelope. All sides need to engage their brains first....
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At least 40 years' worth, in Labour's case. Oh my: we've just had those.rottenborough said:
There is a great deal of ruin in a political party, as Adam Smith didn't say.YBarddCwsc said:
There is enormous inertia in FPTP.Innocent_Abroad said:Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump
)
It took 15-20 years of infighting to reduce the old Liberals from Government to a shrivelled third party.
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Carville on POTUS election (my bold):
"Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?
Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-20160 -
I've just changed the video atop the thread0
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Let me dig up that xkcd comic on the 'firsts' in presidential elections...rottenborough said:Carville on POTUS election (my bold):
"Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?
Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016 0 -
https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/772094862447546370
Ed Balls would have wiped the floor with Corbyn. Mr Herdson did his level best to help ensure that Labour remained in trouble.0 -
I read something on RCP IIRC last night - plus another report elsewhere saying Trump is rapidly closing the Millenials polling gap.rottenborough said:Carville on POTUS election (my bold):
"Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?
Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016
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Ed made an interesting point in his interview this morning; his wife should have run after 2010 loss, and not him. Then it would, as he put it, been do you want one of these two Miliband brothers or the first woman leader of the Labour Party? Ed would not have been able to persuade the unions that he was the non-Blair, non-Brown candidate in the same way.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/772094862447546370
Ed Balls would have wiped the floor with Corbyn. Mr Herdson did his level best to help ensure that Labour remained in trouble.0 -
It's Theoretically Infinite Manually Transferable Vote.RobD said:
Isn't it quasi-AV?TheScreamingEagles said:
As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.TheWhiteRabbit said:You're a one man campaign TSE!!
I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.0 -
75 people at #marchforeurope in Cardiff. More like a #ShortStrollForEurope then.
https://t.co/FbfANGE0Hu0 -
Well it does feel like there may be a general tightening coming in. Labor Day and all that.PlatoSaid said:
I read something on RCP IIRC last night - plus another report elsewhere saying Trump is rapidly closing the Millenials polling gap.rottenborough said:Carville on POTUS election (my bold):
"Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?
Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016
Obviously this is straight after I increased my money on Clinton, so there you go. However, I'm sticking with Carville for time being.0 -
There'll be a few more in five years time. As Anna Sourby said yesterday (yes I can hear the hissing), we are not even entering the woods yet, never mind out of them.PlatoSaid said:75 people at #marchforeurope in Cardiff. More like a #ShortStrollForEurope then.
https://t.co/FbfANGE0Hu0 -
Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb0 -
@rottenborough An interesting strategy for 2010 - YC v Ed M and D M.
Am surprised that no Lab MP stood down to make way for Ed Balls, perhaps he had trod on too many toes on his way up.0 -
He's doing Christians today from the tweets I've seen today. His energy is phenomenal.rottenborough said:
Well it does feel like there may be a general tightening coming in. Labor Day and all that.PlatoSaid said:
I read something on RCP IIRC last night - plus another report elsewhere saying Trump is rapidly closing the Millenials polling gap.rottenborough said:Carville on POTUS election (my bold):
"Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?
Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016
Obviously this is straight after I increased my money on Clinton, so there you go. However, I'm sticking with Carville for time being.0 -
Just 75 in Wales and more Journalists, photographers and police than protestors in London.
What a rip roaring success - and back home in time for tea and medals. #March4Europe.
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ABC
.@realDonaldTrump given prayer shawl from Israel after remarks at African-American church in Detroit. https://t.co/BH4M8dCoTr0 -
Normally they'd need to be offered a peerage to get them to free a seat. Corbyn of course doesn't believe in peerages. No, wait...dr_spyn said:@rottenborough An interesting strategy for 2010 - YC v Ed M and D M.
Am surprised that no Lab MP stood down to make way for Ed Balls, perhaps he had trod on too many toes on his way up.0 -
That's not the reason Miliband won the leadership IMO - it's because he convinced grassroots members that he would genuinely take the party to the left of New Labour (either the 'Blairite' or 'Brownite' flavour of New Labour), and because (amusingly in retrospect) he was considered more charismatic and to have more popular appeal than either David M or Balls. The average member didn't give two hoots about whether people hung out in the 'Blairite' or 'Brownite' gang at Westminster.rottenborough said:
Ed made an interesting point in his interview this morning; his wife should have run after 2010 loss, and not him. Then it would, as he put it, been do you want one of these two Miliband brothers or the first woman leader of the Labour Party? Ed would not have been able to persuade the unions that he was the non-Blair, non-Brown candidate in the same way.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/772094862447546370
Ed Balls would have wiped the floor with Corbyn. Mr Herdson did his level best to help ensure that Labour remained in trouble.
Yvette would've probably done better than Balls in the 2010 contest, but probably still would've trailed far behind both Milibands, if her policy platform was similar to Balls's or to her own platform in the 2015 contest.0 -
Puts them some way behind the Jehovah's Witnesses, I would thinkSimonStClare said:Just 75 in Wales and more Journalists, photographers and police than protestors in London.
What a rip roaring success - and back home in time for tea and medals. #March4Europe.
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Trump: +3 in USC Dornsife/LA Times national, although 538 adjust to Clinton +1
Ipsos Ohio - Trump + 30 -
Mr. 565, be fair. Six years after Miliband won the leadership, the party's undoubtedly moved to the left.0
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Those IPSOS polls have very small sample sizes.. makes me suspiciousrottenborough said:Trump: +3 in USC Dornsife/LA Times national, although 538 adjust to Clinton +1
Ipsos Ohio - Trump + 30 -
Well speaking personally I cannot remember the last time I had a bath, around about the turn of the century I think. Herself though treats them somewhat differently and has three a week, complete with scented candles, the wireless, a good book, and a massive vodka and tonic; durations vary but the current average is 90 minutes (gone up a bit since we had the new bathroom installed).HYUFD said:Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb0 -
Ed Balls. The key question is: do people like him? I've always classed him along with George Osborne, as politicians that people instinctively (and perhaps unfairly) dislike: a sort of anti-Boris, if you will. Strictly might prove me wrong but until it does, no bet.0
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sounds similar to our house. I just have the massive vodka and tonic, or though I my case more likely to be a whisky.HurstLlama said:
Well speaking personally I cannot remember the last time I had a bath, around about the turn of the century I think. Herself though treats them somewhat differently and has three a week, complete with scented candles, the wireless, a good book, and a massive vodka and tonic; durations vary but the current average is 90 minutes (gone up a bit since we had the new bathroom installed).HYUFD said:Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb0 -
Yeh, we need more data before declaring that Trump has turned around the ship.RobD said:
Those IPSOS polls have very small sample sizes.. makes me suspiciousrottenborough said:Trump: +3 in USC Dornsife/LA Times national, although 538 adjust to Clinton +1
Ipsos Ohio - Trump + 30 -
The ultimate PBers Twitter account
Psephography
(Almost) Every opinion poll from 1945 to 2015.
https://t.co/4WJo1DK2Ab https://t.co/W8nRi1LsEc0 -
I had one yesterday, though normally I just have a shower in the morning. Your anecdote about your good lady's bathing habits compared to your own confirm the poll findings that women tend to have more baths than menHurstLlama said:
Well speaking personally I cannot remember the last time I had a bath, around about the turn of the century I think. Herself though treats them somewhat differently and has three a week, complete with scented candles, the wireless, a good book, and a massive vodka and tonic; durations vary but the current average is 90 minutes (gone up a bit since we had the new bathroom installed).HYUFD said:Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb0 -
Apart from Shami of course, who will happily say there's no Labour antisemitism problem in exchange for her seat on the red benches.rottenborough said:
Normally they'd need to be offered a peerage to get them to free a seat. Corbyn of course doesn't believe in peerages. No, wait...dr_spyn said:@rottenborough An interesting strategy for 2010 - YC v Ed M and D M.
Am surprised that no Lab MP stood down to make way for Ed Balls, perhaps he had trod on too many toes on his way up.0 -
Yup. His interview technique (not answering questions directly, repeating the same phrases verbatim without any subtlety) drives Joe Public mad, in my experience.DecrepitJohnL said:Ed Balls. The key question is: do people like him? I've always classed him along with George Osborne, as politicians that people instinctively (and perhaps unfairly) dislike: a sort of anti-Boris, if you will. Strictly might prove me wrong but until it does, no bet.
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Very nice!PlatoSaid said:The ultimate PBers Twitter account
Psephography
(Almost) Every opinion poll from 1945 to 2015.
https://t.co/4WJo1DK2Ab https://t.co/W8nRi1LsEc0 -
It is an interesting exercise to rerun the Labour leadership election of 2010 with different candidates, but I don’t think anything much would have changed.
The key event came 9 months later, unnoticed and unrecognised -- in Holyrood 2011, when the SNP showed that they could routinely oust Labour in FPTP elections in Scotland.
The SNP majority in Holyrood led inevitably on to Sindy. The misplaying of Sindy led inevitably onto the most astonishing destruction that I have witnessed in UK elections in my lifetime.
Ed Miliband oozed metropolitan London. He never seemed to me to understand Scotland (or Wales or the North of England, for that matter). In retrospect, he was a terrible choice for the critical problem that Labour was to face in 2010-15.
But, could Labour have elected anyone who would have seen the peril, and done things differently?0
