politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Everybody salsa for a Labour King over the water

SystemSystem Posts: 12,144
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Everybody salsa for a Labour King over the water

No, this isn’t a shameless attempt to make John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN list, again, but I do think appearing on this year’s Strictly Come Dancing might help Ed Balls reputation and popularity with the public and introduce him to the wider public that don’t follow politics intimately.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    You're a one man campaign TSE!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/03/corbyn-to-pledge-30bn-to-restore-pride-and-prosperity-to-south-east-england
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2016
    This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).

    He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility

    A further obstacle is that he would have to be selected for a winnable seat.

    Most likely Labour will have a chicken run for the new boundaries as well as deselections plus a net loss of over 50 MPs.

    Not sure Ed can do that or would want to do that. More likely that He will raise the standard of househusband for that little pixie of Yvette.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility

    He'd need to find a seat first. With the reduction in MPs and the rumoured deselections, as well as the possibility of a Tory landslide, where would Balls find to stand?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited September 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility

    A further obstacle is that he would have to be selected for a winnable seat.

    Most likely Labour will have a chicken run for the new boundaries as well as deselections plus a net loss of over 50 MPs.

    Not sure Ed can do that or would want to do that. More likely that He will raise the standard of househusband for that little pixie of Yvette.
    Indeed, he has also recently accepted an academic position at Harvard which I would imagine is far more amenable than serving as a backbencher in Corbyn's Labour Party even in the unlikely event he did find a seat and may well pay more too
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    nunu said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/03/corbyn-to-pledge-30bn-to-restore-pride-and-prosperity-to-south-east-england

    Is that a spoof? Surely Corbyn would be better off concentrating on poorer areas of the North, or at least the Midlands marginals?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Danny565 said:

    This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).

    He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.

    I tend to agree.

    First, it looks to me as though Balls is trying to emulate Portillo, and move from being a divisive political figure to being a benign media entertainer. It pays better and is less stressful.

    Second, given where it is, Labour probably needs 8 to 10 years hard work to become electable again. Balls is too old. Even if he returned, there is too much heavy-lifting to be done before any rewards of real power can be reaped.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Since he hit the big time, I thought Ed went by the stage name ‘Glitter Balls..?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    Danny565 said:

    This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).

    He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.

    Absence makes the heart grow fonder.

    Except for Bill, where absence makes the heart go wander.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    I was never an Ed Balls fan but my opinion of his has changed a lot since he was forced out of politics. Every interview I have seen since he does seem kind of a different person, more softer and I think it comes across that he seems to be enjoying life a bit more outside the word of politics.

    Honestly I am not sure he would want to return.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. 83, like someone trying to improve his image.

    Whining about being bullied by Cameron was not very convincing.

    FPT: Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    edited September 2016
    Danny565 said:

    This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).

    He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.

    It's not a rerating of Balls so much as a repositioning of Labour's standards. Balls looks better than in 2015 because the quality of Labour's leadership is so very poor and the challengers to that leadership is is possibly worse. Balls looks like a Titan of intellect and leadership compared to Corbyn and Smith. His naturally Eurosceptic nature (it was his cunning that kept us out of the Eurozone) is a good fit to Labour and, stammer aside, he speaks well on subjects that Labour have been weak on, particularly immigration and the economy. However, that doesn't mean I'd be putting money on at anything less than 250/1 for Ed Balls to be the next Labour leader. He's not in Parliament and he doesn't seem interested in coming back to politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    This revisionist uprating of Ed Balls by Tory commentators (on both PB and in the media generally) since 2015 has been very strange. For most of the last parliament, Balls had even lower approval ratings with the public than Ed Miliband, and with the Labour membership, he was regarded as both less likeable and less politically-able than Yvette (whose leadership bid was not exactly a roaring success).

    He is about the last person who would be Labour's saviour. Intelligent he may be, but he's not the answer to a single one of the party's problems.

    It's not a rerating of Balls so much as a repositioning of Labour's standards. Balls looks better than in 2015 because the quality of Labour's leadership is so very poor and the challengers to that leadership is is possibly worse. Balls looks like a Titan of intellect and leadership compared to Corbyn and Smith. His naturally Eurosceptic nature (it was his cunning that kept us out of the Eurozone) is a good fit to Labour and, stammer aside, he speaks well on subjects that Labour have been weak on, particularly immigration and the economy. However, that doesn't mean I'd be putting money on at anything less than 250/1 for Ed Balls to be the next Labour leader. He's not in Parliament and he doesn't seem interested in coming back to politics.
    Indeed, both Balls and $400 000 a year Manhattan based David Miliband have absolutely zero incentive at all to return to Westminster to become backbench opposition MPs with no immediate prospect of Labour returning to power as long as it remains so enamoured with Corbyn and the hard left
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited September 2016
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ed Balls is pro Trident and fiscally sane, there is not a cat in hells chance of the present Labour membership electing him leader even if he does become an MP again. The only chance he would have is if Corbyn/McDonnell are trounced at the next general election, which is of course a strong possibility

    He'd need to find a seat first. With the reduction in MPs and the rumoured deselections, as well as the possibility of a Tory landslide, where would Balls find to stand?
    Exactly, not that Balls will even try to find one anyway
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SimonStClare said:

    Since he hit the big time, I thought Ed went by the stage name ‘Glitter Balls..?

    "Disco Balls" are covered in mirrors, not glitter...

    /pedant mode
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    For Labour to return to power, they first need the right environment. They need the Tories to screw up Brexit, & the fresh paint of the SNP to become chipped and dirty. They need both of these things to happen.

    Then, they need a fresh vision of a left-of-centre agenda from an appealing new generation of Labour politicians, untainted with past failure, who have accepted the referendum result.

    This all takes time. I think the Labour Party will pull through, but the next Labour PM is probably aged 30 to 35 at the moment.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/03/corbyn-to-pledge-30bn-to-restore-pride-and-prosperity-to-south-east-england

    Is that a spoof? Surely Corbyn would be better off concentrating on poorer areas of the North, or at least the Midlands marginals?
    He's waving a red rag rather than a red flag at anyone reading that in the Midlands or North. At one time Labour used to advocate policies aimed at closing not widening the North-South divide.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Oh my aunt Fanny, Strictly has come around again. Well there won't be anyone this year as glamourous and engaging as Helen George was in last years event, so I will take it or leave it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited September 2016
    Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    YBarddCwsc said:

    For Labour to return to power, they first need the right environment. They need the Tories to screw up Brexit, & the fresh paint of the SNP to become chipped and dirty. They need both of these things to happen.

    Then, they need a fresh vision of a left-of-centre agenda from an appealing new generation of Labour politicians, untainted with past failure, who have accepted the referendum result.

    This all takes time. I think the Labour Party will pull through, but the next Labour PM is probably aged 30 to 35 at the moment.

    .... and will be aged 80-85 when they become PM?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    HYUFD said:

    Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html

    I know it's bad to laugh at these things, but people like Eddie Izzard really do bring it on themselves in opposing the will of the people. Especially when dressed in drag.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    SouthamObserver said:

    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?

    Indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html

    I know it's bad to laugh at these things, but people like Eddie Izzard really do bring it on themselves in opposing the will of the people. Especially when dressed in drag.
    The sight of Eddie Izzard and Peter Tatchell leading the London march said it all
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    With regard to Balls losing his zest for politics, surely the same thing has happened to Yvette?

    During last years’ leadership election, it never looked to me as though Yvette actually wanted to win. It looked as though she had been pressurised to stand by her supporters, but she didn’t actually want the job.

    Wasn’t she on holiday with her family for some of the campaigning period, while Jeremy was revving up in meetings up and down the country?

    Perhaps it is as simple as that. Yvette and Ed are more interested right now in their family (growing children, elderly parents needing support).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Sandpit, didn't watch it at the time of broadcast, but there were two telling moments during Izzard's gesticulating verbal diarrhoea on Question Time. First was when he cited Obama as if he were Second Coming of Jesus, and people laughed. Second was when someone shouted "Shut up!" at Izzard, and the audience applauded.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 83, like someone trying to improve his image.

    Whining about being bullied by Cameron was not very convincing.

    FPT: Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).

    If he's actively trying to improve his image it's probably working, but I am not sure he is deliberately doing it in order to return to Politics. I just think he is having a good time away from the stress of that world.

    I guess we will have to wait and see, if he tries to go for a seat then it's obvious what his real motives are.

    Yeah I have heard mixed reviews as well but I am enjoying it so far. I don't blame you there are a lot of good games coming out now in in the next few months/early next year. I have Elite Dangerous, Fallout 4 and this at the moment all taking my time up.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    SouthamObserver said:

    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?

    Well quite, leaving politics and letting your hair down a la Widecombe must be quite liberating
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    SimonStClare said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?

    Well quite, leaving politics and letting your hair down a la Widecombe must be quite liberating
    I think modern politics is becoming much more polarised, something that brings out the worst in otherwise good people. I can't imagine for a minute that someone like Ed Balls would want to get back in that bearpit. Unfortunately for Labour, which is about to be purged of the non-believers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. 83, aye, can be hard deciding not only what to get, but whether holding off for a GOTY version can make sense. I may try that with XCOM 2, although I really like the look of it, because there's plenty of DLC but none on the standard PS4 release.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Coral: BREAKING: Jenson Button retires from racing in F1. https://t.co/1SQUaxXAaV
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    edited September 2016
    F1: just broken so unconfirmed, but Button may have retired from F1.

    No dogs in this fight myself, but if you've got an account with a drivers' market up, give it a look.

    Edited extra bit: ha, beaten by Mr. P.

    Serves me right for writing a second sentence :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Edited extra bit: ha, beaten by Mr. P.

    Too slow. Cheerio.

    You and Jenson...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    edited September 2016
    YBarddCwsc said:

    With regard to Balls losing his zest for politics, surely the same thing has happened to Yvette?

    During last years’ leadership election, it never looked to me as though Yvette actually wanted to win. It looked as though she had been pressurised to stand by her supporters, but she didn’t actually want the job.

    Wasn’t she on holiday with her family for some of the campaigning period, while Jeremy was revving up in meetings up and down the country?

    Perhaps it is as simple as that. Yvette and Ed are more interested right now in their family (growing children, elderly parents needing support).

    Ed says in today's Guardian that he would give it all up tomorrow (dancing, lecturing, marathons etc) except Norwich job to go back to politics, if the Labour Party felt he was part of the answer. He's not lost enthusiasm imho. He's waiting for sanity, in the party, to return.

    I've been on for some time, but at a measly 60/1 compared today's odds. Might top up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    Scott_P said:

    @Coral: BREAKING: Jenson Button retires from racing in F1. https://t.co/1SQUaxXAaV

    Ooh, interesting. Top Gear beckons maybe?

    Really pleased to have tickets to the last race of the season, thanks for the memories Jenson and Filipe :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    SouthamObserver said:

    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?

    Unfinished business, power, intellectual challenge. There's reasons.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    F1: it seems Button *may* race again n 2018.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?

    Unfinished business, power, intellectual challenge. There's reasons.
    Business is always unfinished, power is at least 8 years away, there are intellectual challenges aplenty elsewhere (with less hassle than in the Labour party).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. P, slow and steady wins the race.

    Ah, seems the team has a contract with Button. He'll be reserve next year, and an option for 2018.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Balls is having the time of his life. Why would he go back?

    Unfinished business, power, intellectual challenge. There's reasons.
    Not sure those are enough for Balls to come back though, not when facing a very tough challenge vs the Tories on new boundaries. There's no guarantee he will win in 2025 if he were leader.

    Balls will go on the US lecture circuit for a while, take some technocratic role at an international institution and spend more time with his family. I wouldn't be surprised if Yvette follows suit.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    ES - Bizarre moment Eddie Izzard grapples with protester who snatches his pink beret.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/march-for-europe-bizarre-moment-eddie-izzard-grapples-with-protester-who-snatches-his-pink-beret-a3335956.html

    March4Europe descends into a very British farce as aged transvestite gives chase in 3” heels.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump :o )
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: just broken so unconfirmed, but Button may have retired from F1.

    No dogs in this fight myself, but if you've got an account with a drivers' market up, give it a look.

    Edited extra bit: ha, beaten by Mr. P.

    Serves me right for writing a second sentence :p

    https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/772083305873281024

    The thing is I can imagine that Jenson would be quite good as a team manager...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    edited September 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. P, slow and steady wins the race.

    Ah, seems the team has a contract with Button. He'll be reserve next year, and an option for 2018.

    So McLaren are dropping him for next year, presumably in favour of Vandoorne? Ouch if true, as the car is expected to be substantially quicker in 2017.

    Maybe he'll do WEC, some TV work and consultancy/testing at Woking then, but dropping him seems harsh on the lad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/772084397491232768
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Sandpit, great for McLaren though. Two experienced drivers developing the car, plus a talented (and presumably cheaper) youngster.

    Mr. Eek, possibly. He would have to put a stake through Ron Dennis' heart first, though. [Or lead another team].
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    So McLaren are dropping him for next year, presumably in favour of Vandoorne?

    @sarahholtf1: The Stoff is announced as Alonso's 2017 McLaren teammate #F1 https://t.co/JVyuE7K0q0
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump :o )

    There is enormous inertia in FPTP.

    It took 15-20 years of infighting to reduce the old Liberals from Government to a shrivelled third party.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SimonStClare said:

    ES - Bizarre moment Eddie Izzard grapples with protester who snatches his pink beret.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/march-for-europe-bizarre-moment-eddie-izzard-grapples-with-protester-who-snatches-his-pink-beret-a3335956.html

    March4Europe descends into a very British farce as aged transvestite gives chase in 3” heels.

    To be fair on Izzard, he is a good athelete!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Cwsc, no bad thing to have a measure of stability in the political system.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    F1: just perusing markets but thought it might be interesting to reflect on the way Ferrari's drivers' odds (to win) have altered.

    Post third practice they fell from 17 and 29 (Vettel and Raikkonen respectively) to 15 and 17. That made sense as the car was clearly superior to the Red Bull and inferior to the Mercedes. Qualifying confirmed this, yet the odds have stretched to 17 and 26 again.

    The Red Bulls had been around 15/17 or so prior to practice and are now 67 each, but that just makes the long Ferrari odds more perplexing. Maybe it's just a function of trying to attract bets rather than reflecting what the bookie thinks the chances are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Showa what a terrible situation labour are in if Ed balls is considered at all a possibility for leadership. He is carrying more baggage than a 777 flight from London to Delhi.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, great for McLaren though. Two experienced drivers developing the car, plus a talented (and presumably cheaper) youngster.

    Mr. Eek, possibly. He would have to put a stake through Ron Dennis' heart first, though. [Or lead another team].

    Ron really attends races outside Europe nowadays if Jenson is at all events I expect him to be doing a fair bit of media..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: just perusing markets but thought it might be interesting to reflect on the way Ferrari's drivers' odds (to win) have altered.

    Post third practice they fell from 17 and 29 (Vettel and Raikkonen respectively) to 15 and 17. That made sense as the car was clearly superior to the Red Bull and inferior to the Mercedes. Qualifying confirmed this, yet the odds have stretched to 17 and 26 again.

    The Red Bulls had been around 15/17 or so prior to practice and are now 67 each, but that just makes the long Ferrari odds more perplexing. Maybe it's just a function of trying to attract bets rather than reflecting what the bookie thinks the chances are.

    Interesting observation. I assume that the odds on the two Mercedes cars have shortened significantly as others have gone out, reflecting the fact that there's almost a second between the German and Italian cars.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Sandpit, not sure, I actually paid the least attention to the Mercedes. I don't think their odds have changed a huge amount (probably Hamilton shortened and Rosberg lengthened).
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HYUFD said:

    Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html

    That's a spiffing Url :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    You're a one man campaign TSE!!

    As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.

    I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Surely the question here is not whether Balls actually stands much of a chance - I agree with the general view that he does not - but whether, as Labour goes from bad to worse and Balls (may) get lots of non-political exposure on the dancing programme, whether his odds might come in significantly over the next few weeks sufficient to merit backing him as a trading bet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    You're a one man campaign TSE!!

    As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.

    I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.
    Isn't it quasi-AV? :D
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SimonStClare said:

    ES - Bizarre moment Eddie Izzard grapples with protester who snatches his pink beret.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/march-for-europe-bizarre-moment-eddie-izzard-grapples-with-protester-who-snatches-his-pink-beret-a3335956.html

    March4Europe descends into a very British farce as aged transvestite gives chase in 3” heels.

    First thing I noticed when he stood on the platform. Very ill advised footwear choice.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump :o )

    There is enormous inertia in FPTP.

    It took 15-20 years of infighting to reduce the old Liberals from Government to a shrivelled third party.
    There is a great deal of ruin in a political party, as Adam Smith didn't say.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    You're a one man campaign TSE!!

    As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.

    I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.
    Isn't it quasi-AV? :D
    It does have some similarities with AV, however we have some super voters in Strictly, whose votes carry more weight than everybody else, especially in the shortlisting stage.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Whatever his faults - and being seagle from Bromley - I have great respect for the charity-work Eddie Izzard does. I also agree with his 'mongrel nation' thesis.

    As for the [MODERATED] who tried to assault him: EI can run multiple-marathons in a stupid time-envelope. All sides need to engage their brains first....
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clashes between Remain and Leave protestors at today's 'Marches for Europe', one Leave protestor even stole Eddie Izzard's beret after which Izzard gave chase
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3772237/Angry-scenes-police-separate-Leave-Remain-protesters-anti-Brexit-rallies-Britain-Eddie-Izzard-pink-beret-knocked-off.html

    I know it's bad to laugh at these things, but people like Eddie Izzard really do bring it on themselves in opposing the will of the people. Especially when dressed in drag.
    The sight of Eddie Izzard and Peter Tatchell leading the London march said it all
    Yes, very comforting to see people like that fronting Continuity Remain (!).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    F1: I wish every race had an obviously mispriced market like the Hungarian safety car. Least likely circuit for one, but it was odds against. Super.

    Anyway, got two bets I'm looking at, both of which are essentially guesswork. It's interesting to note I still have no idea what I'm doing after eight years, though. Anyway, I'll see if I can pick one, though it may take me a while [got one or two other things to do as well].
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    FluffyThoughts said:

    Whatever his faults - and being seagle from Bromley - I have great respect for the charity-work Eddie Izzard does. I also agree with his 'mongrel nation' thesis.

    As for the [MODERATED] who tried to assault him: EI can run multiple-marathons in a stupid time-envelope. All sides need to engage their brains first....

    Did he run the marathons in high heels? ;)
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    rottenborough said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Business may be unfinished but Labour most certainly is. It's predicated on the primary source of political cleavage being class. Which it no longer is (ask Mme Le Pen or the Great Trump :o )

    There is enormous inertia in FPTP.

    It took 15-20 years of infighting to reduce the old Liberals from Government to a shrivelled third party.
    There is a great deal of ruin in a political party, as Adam Smith didn't say.
    At least 40 years' worth, in Labour's case. Oh my: we've just had those.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Carville on POTUS election (my bold):


    "Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?

    Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    I've just changed the video atop the thread
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    rottenborough said:

    Carville on POTUS election (my bold):


    "Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?

    Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016

    Let me dig up that xkcd comic on the 'firsts' in presidential elections... :D
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/772094862447546370

    Ed Balls would have wiped the floor with Corbyn. Mr Herdson did his level best to help ensure that Labour remained in trouble.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    rottenborough said:

    Carville on POTUS election (my bold):


    "Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?

    Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016

    I read something on RCP IIRC last night - plus another report elsewhere saying Trump is rapidly closing the Millenials polling gap.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/772094862447546370

    Ed Balls would have wiped the floor with Corbyn. Mr Herdson did his level best to help ensure that Labour remained in trouble.

    Ed made an interesting point in his interview this morning; his wife should have run after 2010 loss, and not him. Then it would, as he put it, been do you want one of these two Miliband brothers or the first woman leader of the Labour Party? Ed would not have been able to persuade the unions that he was the non-Blair, non-Brown candidate in the same way.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    You're a one man campaign TSE!!

    As if I was ever going to turn down the opportunity to do a Strictly thread.

    I might do a thread on the voting system Strictly uses.
    Isn't it quasi-AV? :D
    It's Theoretically Infinite Manually Transferable Vote.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    75 people at #marchforeurope in Cardiff. More like a #ShortStrollForEurope then.
    https://t.co/FbfANGE0Hu
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    PlatoSaid said:

    rottenborough said:

    Carville on POTUS election (my bold):


    "Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?

    Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016

    I read something on RCP IIRC last night - plus another report elsewhere saying Trump is rapidly closing the Millenials polling gap.

    Well it does feel like there may be a general tightening coming in. Labor Day and all that.

    Obviously this is straight after I increased my money on Clinton, so there you go. However, I'm sticking with Carville for time being.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    PlatoSaid said:

    75 people at #marchforeurope in Cardiff. More like a #ShortStrollForEurope then.
    https://t.co/FbfANGE0Hu

    There'll be a few more in five years time. As Anna Sourby said yesterday (yes I can hear the hissing), we are not even entering the woods yet, never mind out of them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @rottenborough An interesting strategy for 2010 - YC v Ed M and D M.

    Am surprised that no Lab MP stood down to make way for Ed Balls, perhaps he had trod on too many toes on his way up.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    rottenborough said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    rottenborough said:

    Carville on POTUS election (my bold):


    "Q: Who is that key voter today that could swing the election?

    Every election produces a trending demographic—we had soccer moms, we had the Hispanic vote—the place that there is a little elasticity in the electorate. In this election, it is college whites. They are going to be the people that are really going to decide. Trump has to try to win them over, but he is doing much worse with that particular demographic than Romney did. Republicans have never lost college whites in the history of polling, and right now Trump is behind Clinton, or, at best, even."

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/james-carville-presidential-election-2016

    I read something on RCP IIRC last night - plus another report elsewhere saying Trump is rapidly closing the Millenials polling gap.

    Well it does feel like there may be a general tightening coming in. Labor Day and all that.

    Obviously this is straight after I increased my money on Clinton, so there you go. However, I'm sticking with Carville for time being.
    He's doing Christians today from the tweets I've seen today. His energy is phenomenal.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Just 75 in Wales and more Journalists, photographers and police than protestors in London.

    What a rip roaring success - and back home in time for tea and medals. #March4Europe.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ABC
    .@realDonaldTrump given prayer shawl from Israel after remarks at African-American church in Detroit. https://t.co/BH4M8dCoTr
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    dr_spyn said:

    @rottenborough An interesting strategy for 2010 - YC v Ed M and D M.

    Am surprised that no Lab MP stood down to make way for Ed Balls, perhaps he had trod on too many toes on his way up.

    Normally they'd need to be offered a peerage to get them to free a seat. Corbyn of course doesn't believe in peerages. No, wait...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2016
    rottenborough said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/772094862447546370

    Ed Balls would have wiped the floor with Corbyn. Mr Herdson did his level best to help ensure that Labour remained in trouble.

    Ed made an interesting point in his interview this morning; his wife should have run after 2010 loss, and not him. Then it would, as he put it, been do you want one of these two Miliband brothers or the first woman leader of the Labour Party? Ed would not have been able to persuade the unions that he was the non-Blair, non-Brown candidate in the same way.
    That's not the reason Miliband won the leadership IMO - it's because he convinced grassroots members that he would genuinely take the party to the left of New Labour (either the 'Blairite' or 'Brownite' flavour of New Labour), and because (amusingly in retrospect) he was considered more charismatic and to have more popular appeal than either David M or Balls. The average member didn't give two hoots about whether people hung out in the 'Blairite' or 'Brownite' gang at Westminster.

    Yvette would've probably done better than Balls in the 2010 contest, but probably still would've trailed far behind both Milibands, if her policy platform was similar to Balls's or to her own platform in the 2015 contest.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    SimonStClare said:

    Just 75 in Wales and more Journalists, photographers and police than protestors in London.

    What a rip roaring success - and back home in time for tea and medals. #March4Europe.

    Puts them some way behind the Jehovah's Witnesses, I would think :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Trump: +3 in USC Dornsife/LA Times national, although 538 adjust to Clinton +1

    Ipsos Ohio - Trump + 3
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. 565, be fair. Six years after Miliband won the leadership, the party's undoubtedly moved to the left.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    rottenborough said:

    Trump: +3 in USC Dornsife/LA Times national, although 538 adjust to Clinton +1

    Ipsos Ohio - Trump + 3

    Those IPSOS polls have very small sample sizes.. makes me suspicious
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb

    Well speaking personally I cannot remember the last time I had a bath, around about the turn of the century I think. Herself though treats them somewhat differently and has three a week, complete with scented candles, the wireless, a good book, and a massive vodka and tonic; durations vary but the current average is 90 minutes (gone up a bit since we had the new bathroom installed).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ed Balls. The key question is: do people like him? I've always classed him along with George Osborne, as politicians that people instinctively (and perhaps unfairly) dislike: a sort of anti-Boris, if you will. Strictly might prove me wrong but until it does, no bet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    HurstLlama said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb

    Well speaking personally I cannot remember the last time I had a bath, around about the turn of the century I think. Herself though treats them somewhat differently and has three a week, complete with scented candles, the wireless, a good book, and a massive vodka and tonic; durations vary but the current average is 90 minutes (gone up a bit since we had the new bathroom installed).
    sounds similar to our house. I just have the massive vodka and tonic, or though I my case more likely to be a whisky.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Trump: +3 in USC Dornsife/LA Times national, although 538 adjust to Clinton +1

    Ipsos Ohio - Trump + 3

    Those IPSOS polls have very small sample sizes.. makes me suspicious
    Yeh, we need more data before declaring that Trump has turned around the ship.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    The ultimate PBers Twitter account

    Psephography
    (Almost) Every opinion poll from 1945 to 2015.

    https://t.co/4WJo1DK2Ab https://t.co/W8nRi1LsEc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    HurstLlama said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll result from yougov...1 in 3 still take a bath at least a few times a week
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/772075374771638273?lang=en-gb

    Well speaking personally I cannot remember the last time I had a bath, around about the turn of the century I think. Herself though treats them somewhat differently and has three a week, complete with scented candles, the wireless, a good book, and a massive vodka and tonic; durations vary but the current average is 90 minutes (gone up a bit since we had the new bathroom installed).
    I had one yesterday, though normally I just have a shower in the morning. Your anecdote about your good lady's bathing habits compared to your own confirm the poll findings that women tend to have more baths than men
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    rottenborough said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @rottenborough An interesting strategy for 2010 - YC v Ed M and D M.

    Am surprised that no Lab MP stood down to make way for Ed Balls, perhaps he had trod on too many toes on his way up.

    Normally they'd need to be offered a peerage to get them to free a seat. Corbyn of course doesn't believe in peerages. No, wait...
    Apart from Shami of course, who will happily say there's no Labour antisemitism problem in exchange for her seat on the red benches.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Ed Balls. The key question is: do people like him? I've always classed him along with George Osborne, as politicians that people instinctively (and perhaps unfairly) dislike: a sort of anti-Boris, if you will. Strictly might prove me wrong but until it does, no bet.

    Yup. His interview technique (not answering questions directly, repeating the same phrases verbatim without any subtlety) drives Joe Public mad, in my experience.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    PlatoSaid said:

    The ultimate PBers Twitter account

    Psephography
    (Almost) Every opinion poll from 1945 to 2015.

    https://t.co/4WJo1DK2Ab https://t.co/W8nRi1LsEc

    Very nice!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited September 2016
    It is an interesting exercise to rerun the Labour leadership election of 2010 with different candidates, but I don’t think anything much would have changed.

    The key event came 9 months later, unnoticed and unrecognised -- in Holyrood 2011, when the SNP showed that they could routinely oust Labour in FPTP elections in Scotland.

    The SNP majority in Holyrood led inevitably on to Sindy. The misplaying of Sindy led inevitably onto the most astonishing destruction that I have witnessed in UK elections in my lifetime.

    Ed Miliband oozed metropolitan London. He never seemed to me to understand Scotland (or Wales or the North of England, for that matter). In retrospect, he was a terrible choice for the critical problem that Labour was to face in 2010-15.

    But, could Labour have elected anyone who would have seen the peril, and done things differently?
This discussion has been closed.