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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Jeremy Hunt be Health Secretary on the 1st of January

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  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Apologies for the lack of a piece this morning. Arthur Robin Herdson was born at 2.30am and so gave his dad an even higher priority than PB. He and his mum are doing fine. Have to give a lot of credit to the NHS staff who have given a lot of support throughout. That said, he was born by a last-minute-decision c-section and was originally due on Sept 20. I worry what might have been had he gone to term.

    Congratulations!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    tlg86 said:

    Just think how many businesses/jobs benefit from people going for a drink after work. Corbyn wants to hurt them.
    Unhappy Hour?
  • HYUFD said:

    If the EU offers no protection for the City in any BREXIT deal the UK will have no choice but to put tariffs on German cars and French wine exported to the UK
    That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    tlg86 said:

    Just think how many businesses/jobs benefit from people going for a drink after work. Corbyn wants to hurt them.
    Corbyn is clearly advocating afternoon beer.
  • HYUFD said:



    However such bilateral agreements would rely on us accepting at least some free movement from and to the EU as the Swiss presently do

    I don't think anyone other than hardliners could envisage an end to free movement with France Germany and the like. The EEA/EFTA appears to allow no benefits for incomers and ways of capping movement if you get excessive movement from a place (the EFTA three month unilateral brake (renewable).

    The point is also that staying in the single market does not have to be permanent. If in a decade or so our trade with the single market is declining significantly vis a viz rest of world once bilateral trade agreements are in place we can pull out of EEA/EFTA then. No need to do it all in one go (although that seems to be the direction of movement)
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited September 2016
    Alistair said:

    Why would the SNP be crushed. Who would all the Indy voters suddenly start voting for?
    Because the SNP would be viewed as twice losers and as piss-takers. Enough indy voters would vote for unionist parties - back to Earth - or abstain.

    How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated? Already earlier this year the SNP lost seats and their parliamentary majority. After a second lost referendum they'd get Clegged.
    scotslass said:

    Whayt a bunch of whingers you Pol Bet lot are.

    The SNP at over 50 per cent a decade into Government and you think they have problems. Really.

    Support for indy on this (the most hostile poll) at 46 per cent and you don't think Sturgeon will fire the starting gun. Salmond fired it at 27 per cent on YouGov and ended on 45 per cent!

    I think she will set the date and win.

    Except you haven't stated any reason for that belief.

    If calling polls "hostile" because they predict that you'll get worse scores than you want isn't whinging, what is?
  • HYUFD said:

    Well of course we trade with non-EU nations too but the fact remains a plurality of our trade is with the EU
    Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited September 2016

    That would be like tweaking someone's nose after they've cut your head off.
    Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry

    Not forgetting the City will still have global, non-EU business
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    HYUFD said:

    Not quite, the UK is one of the biggest markets for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. If UK consumers switch to Toyota, Land Rover, Ford, Vauxhall, KIA etc that would be very damaging to the marketshare of the German car industry
    We don't need to do silly things like slapping tariffs on German cars. Just leaving the customs union and abolishing the significant tariffs it levies on imports from Japan etc. will hit the German producers. They have a cushy number in the UK market now.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Unhappy Hour?
    Tutting Hour. Can you imagine it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    nunu said:

    If poor white turnout surges and the GOP still lose will that be the catalyst for them to go back to the drawing board?
    No as those poor whites will vote in the next GOP primaries
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    I don't think anyone other than hardliners could envisage an end to free movement with France Germany and the like. The EEA/EFTA appears to allow no benefits for incomers and ways of capping movement if you get excessive movement from a place (the EFTA three month unilateral brake (renewable).

    The point is also that staying in the single market does not have to be permanent. If in a decade or so our trade with the single market is declining significantly vis a viz rest of world once bilateral trade agreements are in place we can pull out of EEA/EFTA then. No need to do it all in one go (although that seems to be the direction of movement)
    Yes but we still have to get some membership of the Single Market first
  • Dromedary said:

    Because the SNP would be viewed as twice losers and as piss-takers. Enough indy voters would vote for unionist parties - back to Earth - or abstain.

    How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated? Already earlier this year the SNP lost seats and their parliamentary majority. After a second lost referendum they'd get Clegged.
    Twice at least.

    The Bloc Quebecois, whom the SNP seem to draw a lot of inspiration from, twice lost their referendum. They continued to dominate Quebecois politics until 2011 though which was sixteen years after their second lost referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Only if you add 27 nations up together. A majority of trade is non-EU and a plurality of trade is American.
    Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
  • HYUFD said:

    Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
    Either it's more than 50% or it's not!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    runnymede said:

    We don't need to do silly things like slapping tariffs on German cars. Just leaving the customs union and abolishing the significant tariffs it levies on imports from Japan etc. will hit the German producers. They have a cushy number in the UK market now.
    That would have some impact but not as much as full tariffs which would be necessary if the EU takes action against the City
  • HYUFD said:

    Barely more than 50% of trade is with the rest of the world outside the EU
    So what? Used to be a minority, now it is a clear majority with a plurality of UK exports going to the USA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Either it's more than 50% or it's not!
    As I said a plurality of our trade is with the EU, more than with the U.S. and we will be negotiating with the whole EU not individual nations within it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    So what? Used to be a minority, now it is a clear majority with a plurality of UK exports going to the USA.
    More exports go to the EU as a whole than the US
  • HYUFD said:

    As I said a plurality of our trade is with the EU, more than with the U.S. and we will be negotiating with the whole EU not individual nations within it
    I wonder why the Prime Minister has bothered talking with Merkel and other leaders if we're not dealing with individual nations.

    Of course we will be negotiating with the individual nations, don't be silly.
  • HYUFD said:

    More exports go to the EU as a whole than the US
    The EU is not a whole, it is 27 countries.
  • Dromedary said:


    How many times do you think the cycle of getting a referendum, losing it, then winning quite a large number of seats at Holyrood can be repeated?

    Indefinitely, until a competent, maximum devolutionary, centre left party appears over the horizon.

    Dugdale will never be FM.
    Davidson will never be FM.
    Rennie will never be FM.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    HYUFD said:

    That would have some impact but not as much as full tariffs which would be necessary if the EU takes action against the City
    You are talking rubbish, sorry.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Twice at least.

    The Bloc Quebecois, whom the SNP seem to draw a lot of inspiration from, twice lost their referendum. They continued to dominate Quebecois politics until 2011 though which was sixteen years after their second lost referendum.
    That's an interesting parallel. But there were 15 years between the referendums. After they lost the 1980 one, the Parti Québécois increased their voteshare and their majority (unlike the SNP), and they still had the good sense not to push for another referendum right away.
  • HYUFD said:

    More exports go to the EU as a whole than the US

    McApple exports from the UK to the EU[Ireland] are actually exports to Septica. Add in the "Amsterdam/Rotterdam" effect and I think you need to go away and think again! ;)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Sunil_Prasannan

    'Either it's more than 50% or it's not!'

    It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.
  • MaxPB said:

    Well already we're seeing a backlash within the EU against the CETA and TTIP. I doubt the Japanese trade deal gets anywhere either, the UK could easily do a better than CETA deal and get a deal done with Japan pretty quickly for bilateral tariff elimination at least.

    Off the top of my head I can't think of any precedent for the Japanese government doing something pretty quickly.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Off the top of my head I can't think of any precedent for the Japanese government doing something pretty quickly.
    It took them 22 months from deciding they'd lost WWII to accepting Allied terms, so I think I agree with you on that one.
  • Unhappy Hour?
    And it would be done very sneakily by secondary legislation to allow the 'victims' to use her colleagues going for afternoon drinks as evidence of discrimination in a tribunal which will have all sorts of dreadful ramifications.

    With any luck the government will cap all tribunal payouts at a years salary once we dre out of the EU which will derail the entire circus as companies will no longer be paranoid about facing lottery win payouts and will be much more willing to just call the bluff of spurious claimants or just give them a years salary and no reference to get shot of them.
  • john_zims said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan

    'Either it's more than 50% or it's not!'

    It was 44% in 2015 and has been trending down for years.

    Take out trade with RoI which is a significant portion of that and will carry on whatever happens (because although de jure it is international trade it is de facto domestic trade) the number goes down even further.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    I wonder why the Prime Minister has bothered talking with Merkel and other leaders if we're not dealing with individual nations.

    Of course we will be negotiating with the individual nations, don't be silly.
    Yes but those individual leaders will come to a collective decision, which was why Merkel, Hollande and Renzi recently held a summit to which May was not invited
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We are selling the service globally. We are not exporting anything to Spain, just using facilities there because they are the most attractive to us and our customers. This is the joy of being part of the single market, which is why we'll ensure we will continue to be so.

    Presumably the customer pays you in the UK? I'm which case it's an export (of an intangible )
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    The EU is not a whole, it is 27 countries.
    The EU is a whole for the purpose of the BREXIT negotiations
  • John_M said:

    It took them 22 months from deciding they'd lost WWII to accepting Allied terms, so I think I agree with you on that one.
    They made their minds up quite fast once they had some sunshine dropped on them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    runnymede said:

    You are talking rubbish, sorry.
    It is not rubbish it is realpolitik, if we leave the single market and the EU hits the City inevitably the UK will hit back against EU companies exporting to the UK
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Shall set about the pre-race piece presently.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    As none of us are going to be privy to the negotiations, I think we've probably run our course on this topic.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Can I suggest that if an organisation is run with the bare minimum of staff, then when one or two of them are absent temporary replacements are essential.
    They are I completely agree

    However not when some of the staff are off doing private work which was my point. As for minimum staff well most organisations run like this but the NHS has had more doctors and nurses provided over the last few years, better conditions and contracts yet still we don't seem to solve the problem. It's a bottomless pit because it's the sacred cow of public service.

    I am reminded that a previous doctors strike occurred as a protest at them doing less work. I really would prefer they be honest and just say it's the money. It would be more understandable than hiding behind patient care then arbitrarily removing that care and also emergency cover.

    Grown up approach and grown up solutions is the only way forward. The present political ping pong does no one any favours and certainly solves no problems.
  • HYUFD said:

    Yes but those individual leaders will come to a collective decision, which was why Merkel, Hollande and Renzi recently held a summit to which May was not invited
    Iron Maiden also have a veto, if I understand the procedure correctly.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cj72xw8WsAEV81h.jpg
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Take out trade with RoI which is a significant portion of that and will carry on whatever happens (because although de jure it is international trade it is de facto domestic trade) the number goes down even further.
    As long as the ROI is in the EU it will agree EU terms of trade with the UK and we have a large trade surplus with Ireland
  • HYUFD said:

    As long as the ROI is in the EU it will agree EU terms of trade with the UK and we have a large trade surplus with Ireland
    Bollocks - all that would happen if tariffs were put in place is that it would go via NI. There is not a cats chance in hell of trade tariffs between NI and RoI - ever. The RoI government would leave the EU if that was imposed on them as it would ruin their economy.

    In any case, if anyone tried it it would just go across in disguise and in lorryloads via farms which have barns with one end on one side of the border and the other on thr other side.
  • One to watch.

    "The lower house committee drafting legislation on the politically sensitive topic instead proposed giving local people hiring preference as a way to ease pressure on domestic job markets without infringing too much on EU free movement rules.
    The compromise bill, criticised by the far-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) as too vague and a betrayal of voters’ demand for quotas in a 2014 referendum that must be implemented by February, now moves to the full lower house for debate."
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/switzerland-dodges-clash-with-eu-over-immigration/
  • Owen Smith setting the heather alight.

    'Owen Smith holds Glasgow rally down a dark alley'

    http://tinyurl.com/huyvekq

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    PlatoSaid said:

    Michael Dugher
    So Corbyn wants to ban "early evening socialisation". Dancing will be the next to go. Then Christmas. We've been here before #Cromwell

    Is he going to ban it at their next conference?

    On a tangent, just got the new Deus Ex game and I am really enjoying it so far (always was going to as I have been hooked since playing the very first one) but will have to see if it hits the heights of Human Revolution. It looks gorgeous on the Xbox One so I would imagine the PC version is absolutely incredible on a high spec rig.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Bollocks - all that would happen if tariffs were put in place is that it would go via NI. There is not a cats chance in hell of trade tariffs between NI and RoI - ever. The RoI government would leave the EU if that was imposed on them as it would ruin their economy.

    In any case, if anyone tried it it would just go across in disguise and in lorryloads via farms which have barns with one end on one side of the border and the other on thr other side.
    You would presume they would but who knows, especially as the ROI is now part of the Eurozone? In the meantime while they made up their mind there would be tariffs between NI and ROI
  • Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).
  • Indefinitely, until a competent, maximum devolutionary, centre left party appears over the horizon.

    Dugdale will never be FM.
    Davidson will never be FM.
    Rennie will never be FM.
    Sturgeon will never be PM......
  • Mr. 83, heard some mixed reviews of Deus Ex. Don't have the previous one and don't plan on getting this (many good games coming out but I can't get many).

    Mr Dancer, my little brother (he's 35) is playing Deus Ex right now :)
This discussion has been closed.