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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » George Osborne, the modern day Winston Churchill?

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  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Blimey, we hear all the time of a Million March protest – that actually looks like one.
    I've never seen so many people in one place.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,388
    rcs1000 said:

    It was the most profitable betting evening of my life.

    SpreadEx was very generous, and had Remain as favourite for far, far too long.
    The level of knowledge on here never ceases to amaze me. @AndyJS 's spreadsheet was a masterpiece - but prior even to that was understanding what was needed to make sense of the results as they arrived in real time. From comments made by those following the MSM, this site was well ahead in interpretation of the results.
  • MTimT said:

    You sure it's not a Corbyn rally?
    Be interesting to hear him quizzed about it. Like Ken was a strong supporter of the late Hugo Chaves, I think.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I was on bridgewinners and an advert appeared on the side advertising Trump - and the community blew a gasket. Regrettably hate and intolerance has now reached the bridge table.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    MTimT said:

    You sure it's not a Corbyn rally?
    More like an anti-Corbyn rally if he ever managed to become PM here!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,457

    "Cream" in English!
    Well yes of course I know that. I deliberately spelled the word that way.

    English physicians are proper upstanding fellows. They'd never consider a cream, much less a creme. Whatever your complaint, cold baths, leeches, and a bit of the country air won't hurt. Nothing wrong with you at all, but just to be on the safe side let's see you next week.



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    I don't think any of those of us with an international outlook are advocating anarchy as a solution, as you seem to be implying! Personally, I'd like to see devolution of government, both upwards and downwards, with supranational entities administering supranational issues and local entities administering local issues. Nationalism, with its rigid insistence on an us and a them, is, alongside religion, what keeps the fires of hatred burning.
    Internationalism is a form of imperialism, in which people are bound to obey bureaucracies.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,457
    Essexit said:

    There's a joke about Corbyn rallies here somewhere.
    The problem is that there isn't.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Scott_P said:

    Hey Tim

    How many games is Romo's season going to last this year?

    Oh...
    It's back to back for Romo. If I was a fan I'd be screaming for the end of Romo's career.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    Overall Trump was a benefit for the LEAVE campaign (so was Obama of course but he didn't mean it).

    The left should hateTrump since he is the antithesis of all they stand for.

    And FYI - Trump says lot less racist things than CNN would have you believe.
    Thats OK then, he's not THAT racist!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,388
    edited September 2016
    weejonnie said:

    I was on bridgewinners and an advert appeared on the side advertising Trump - and the community blew a gasket. Regrettably hate and intolerance has now reached the bridge table.
    I used to work in a department where there was a thriving Bridge community. They played on Monday evenings. Tuesday mornings at work was rendered hideous by the analyses & recriminations.

    I resolved within weeks never to learn to play Bridge. :smile:

    edited to try untangle blockquotes
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    AnneJGP said:

    The level of knowledge on here never ceases to amaze me. @AndyJS 's spreadsheet was a masterpiece - but prior even to that was understanding what was needed to make sense of the results as they arrived in real time. From comments made by those following the MSM, this site was well ahead in interpretation of the results.
    It was free money. I expected a narrow victory for Remain, but the odds being offered against Leave were ridiculous. Between 3 and 6 to 1, when polls were almost neck and neck. I made £225 on bets of £45.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    It's back to back for Romo. If I was a fan I'd be screaming for the end of Romo's career.

    His career is over. Just nobody told Jerry yet...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    Overall Trump was a benefit for the LEAVE campaign (so was Obama of course but he didn't mean it).

    The left should hateTrump since he is the antithesis of all they stand for.

    And FYI - Trump says lot less racist things than CNN would have you believe.
    In what universe was Trump a benefit for the Leave camp? Everything is claimed as a benefit for Leave in retrospect.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    Hmm, so one of the most bitter remoaners I know personally (more than anyone on here) has moved from anger last week all the way through to acceptance today. Got an apology message just now saying he's sorry for being a dick about it and hopes that there are no hard feelings, we all have to work together now etc...

    I'm truly astonished, he's Scottish in London and went to the EU rally after the vote and has been sharing all of that ScotLond rubbish at any given moment.

    I think the Apple ruling has shaken his love of the EU quite badly and he no longer wants an independent Scotland to be in the EU, I can't think of anything else that would make him move to acceptance (and possibly unionism) in such a short space of time.

    I'll try and gently prod for the real answer, but as ever could just be a straw in the wind.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    D Day for a whole bunch of youtube 'eclebs'.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ABC
    JUST IN: Hillary Clinton raises over $140 million in August for her campaign and the Democratic party https://t.co/XXWyWzsJhe
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    That's one perky bum.......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    nunu said:

    In what universe was Trump a benefit for the Leave camp? Everything is claimed as a benefit for Leave in retrospect.
    I think Leave is a benefit for Trump, not the other way round.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Tim_B said:

    It's back to back for Romo. If I was a fan I'd be screaming for the end of Romo's career.
    Dak seems to be getting a ridiculous amount of hype but is it more down to having the best o-line in football, that running game and going against vanilla scheme defenses in preseason?

    Will have to see how he fares in the regular season and when teams start to get some tape on him.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    Worth a looksee

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/welsh-ukip-surge-has-labour-lost-valleys

    "Peterson began reading Marx as a young man, and agrees with much of the philosophy. He sees himself as “very left-wing”, and believes Ukip is the truly left-wing party. “They [Labour] are not thinking of the people who are claiming the benefits, who are facing the hardships. The Labour Party have left a [vacuum] and I think that’s where Ukip is growing.”

    Peterson’s political journey is a familiar one in South Wales. Once a Labour heartland where some constituencies would weigh Labour votes rather than count them, the Valleys are now at the epicentre of Ukip’s surge."
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AnneJGP said:

    I used to work in a department where there was a thriving Bridge community. They played on Monday evenings. Tuesday mornings at work was rendered hideous by the analyses & recriminations.

    I resolved within weeks never to learn to play Bridge. :smile:

    edited to try untangle blockquotes
    I had a brief foray into a boardgame club. Horrific. Mind you, online gaming is often even worse. Perversely, the game where losing really hurts (Eve Online) has one of the nicest communities I've ever encountered.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, so one of the most bitter remoaners I know personally (more than anyone on here) has moved from anger last week all the way through to acceptance today. Got an apology message just now saying he's sorry for being a dick about it and hopes that there are no hard feelings, we all have to work together now etc...

    I'm truly astonished, he's Scottish in London and went to the EU rally after the vote and has been sharing all of that ScotLond rubbish at any given moment.

    I think the Apple ruling has shaken his love of the EU quite badly and he no longer wants an independent Scotland to be in the EU, I can't think of anything else that would make him move to acceptance (and possibly unionism) in such a short space of time.

    I'll try and gently prod for the real answer, but as ever could just be a straw in the wind.

    I live for these kind of anecdotes. The Remainers on my TL are mellowing out as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    SeanT said:

    I'm overjoyed by Brexit now. Delayed gratification, but very real.

    We did something very very special. The British people turned around and said Fuck You, We want democracy. The only European people who could not be cowed by Brussels bullying: us.

    It proves one of the great verities of global politics remains true.

    You don't invade Russia. You don't go to war in Afghanistan. And you don't fuck with the Brits.

    The Brits are the mildest of people, who maybe surprise themselves when they stand up to bullies. Like the inhabitants of The Shire.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AnneJGP said:


    I used to work in a department where there was a thriving Bridge community. They played on Monday evenings. Tuesday mornings at work was rendered hideous by the analyses & recriminations.

    I resolved within weeks never to learn to play Bridge. :smile:

    Then you have missed out on one of life's great intellectual pleasures and challenges. At my school we were actually taught bridge from the age of thirteen. One of the English periods each week was given over to a bridge lesson, along with after school competitions and events. By the time a chap got to the XVIth form bridge seemed to take up most of the time that was not already occupied by sport. I suppose we must have done some actual work but I honestly don't recall doing much.

    I take your point on the recriminations though. Analysis on what went well/badly is fine and necessary to learn and improve one's game (even after 50 years) but some people do descend into recrimination even at the table, which makes life horrid for everyone.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    jonny83 said:

    Dak seems to be getting a ridiculous amount of hype but is it more down to having the best o-line in football, that running game and going against vanilla scheme defenses in preseason?

    Will have to see how he fares in the regular season and when teams start to get some tape on him.
    Saw an article on espn.com that basically said he is the real deal but not yet ready and will get creamed by the Giants' D. Looking forward to that game to see what the hype is about.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    jonny83 said:

    Dak seems to be getting a ridiculous amount of hype but is it more down to having the best o-line in football, that running game and going against vanilla scheme defenses in preseason?

    Will have to see how he fares in the regular season and when teams start to get some tape on him.
    It's pre-season, defensive lines made up of folks who may well not make the team, not to mention vanilla offensive and defensive schemes. Let's wait until teams have film on him and scheme accordingly.

    That's what a fan would say, I suspect.

    Speaking of quarterbacks who are retired (or should be) and have had back or neck issues...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEw4pyf3aeA
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    As I said yesterday, one of my most REMAINIAN friends is now a bashful embarrassed REMAINIAN, and wishes he'd had the guts to vote LEAVE
    Your tweets are becoming positively Churchillian dear old thing.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Saw an article on espn.com that basically said he is the real deal but not yet ready and will get creamed by the Giants' D. Looking forward to that game to see what the hype is about.
    You don't think the Washington Native American Warriors will cream Dak? ;)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    ABC
    JUST IN: Hillary Clinton raises over $140 million in August for her campaign and the Democratic party https://t.co/XXWyWzsJhe

    She'll need it. Mind you if she'd visited Louisiana instead of fundraising she might not have needed so much.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    I'm overjoyed by Brexit now. Delayed gratification, but very real.

    We did something very very special. The British people turned around and said Fuck You, We want democracy. The only European people who could not be cowed by Brussels bullying: us.

    It proves one of the great verities of global politics remains true.

    You don't invade Russia. You don't go to war in Afghanistan. And you don't fuck with the Brits.

    We really don't like being told what to do. At. All.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    John_M said:

    I live for these kind of anecdotes. The Remainers on my TL are mellowing out as well.
    It does feel like more and more people are moving towards acceptance of the result, a few that I know who wanted a second vote now seem embarrassed by the idea that a democratic vote should be overturned. This one was a real surprise though he was Remain's target market - young, university educated, Scottish, lives in London, tech sector, well traveled and Asian. For him to give up the cause so quickly and possibly over something quite trivial just shows how shallow the sentiment for remain really was.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    Then you have missed out on one of life's great intellectual pleasures and challenges. At my school we were actually taught bridge from the age of thirteen. One of the English periods each week was given over to a bridge lesson, along with after school competitions and events. By the time a chap got to the XVIth form bridge seemed to take up most of the time that was not already occupied by sport. I suppose we must have done some actual work but I honestly don't recall doing much.

    I take your point on the recriminations though. Analysis on what went well/badly is fine and necessary to learn and improve one's game (even after 50 years) but some people do descend into recrimination even at the table, which makes life horrid for everyone.
    I deliberately don't play chess, because it would take over my life, otherwise.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:

    That's one perky bum.......
    Perky bums are very nice.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    While we are talking about the results of the EU referendum like WW2 veterans talk old battles, the Zika epidemic has reached New York:

    https://twitter.com/FBillMcMorris/status/771399412660703233

    Will any government do anything before it becomes the worst public health panic since AIDS ?
    In America they supposedly are having an election but no one cares.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AnneJGP said:

    I used to work in a department where there was a thriving Bridge community. They played on Monday evenings. Tuesday mornings at work was rendered hideous by the analyses & recriminations.

    I resolved within weeks never to learn to play Bridge. :smile:

    edited to try untangle blockquotes
    My partner and I have an agreement to only recriminate by e-mail. Cools things down. To quote Brian Clough - we have a chat and then he agrees I was right in the first place.:)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    You don't think the Washington Native American Warriors will cream Dak? ;)
    Haven't seen much of their D this preseason. The Skins have a very interesting 3rd string running back called Kelley. Undrafted free agent. Running style looks mature ...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    SeanT said:

    Yup. Tolkien caught that British characteristic perfectly. The modest yet flinty yeomen of the shire - who will not be budged, once they are in a truculent mood. As Oliver Cromwell put it (and he won the Civil War by relying on the same people):

    "I had rather have a plain, russet-coated Captain, that knows what he fights for, and loves what he knows, than that you call a Gentleman and is nothing else"
    You've gone funny.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    SeanT said:

    "I had rather have a plain, russet-coated Captain, that knows what he fights for, and loves what he knows, than that you call a Gentleman and is nothing else"

    That quote sums up Nigel vs Dave.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Tim_B said:

    You don't think the Washington Native American Warriors will cream Dak? ;)
    I don't see Washington having the same sort of season, Cousins aint that good.

    My Packers may get a look at Dak at Lambeau in Week 6. I still think Dallas may try and sign a vet who may get the nod over Dak if they don't think he's ready yet.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    I think Leave is a benefit for Trump, not the other way round.
    I think Trump has a good chance against Clinton, but people need to remember
    1) America is 70% white whereas Britain is 85%.
    2) Trump is doing abysmally with minorities. Here Brexit got 25% of Black Britons whereas 97% of AA see him unfavourably and 3% unsure!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    It's pre-season, defensive lines made up of folks who may well not make the team, not to mention vanilla offensive and defensive schemes. Let's wait until teams have film on him and scheme accordingly.

    That's what a fan would say, I suspect.

    Speaking of quarterbacks who are retired (or should be) and have had back or neck issues...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEw4pyf3aeA
    These ads with Manning are hilarious. Love the one in the grocery store with Manning using coupons to buy something and Lionel Ritchie crooning on the piano, "It's Peyton, Peyton on a Sunday morning"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eGIaWss3Y4
  • John_M said:

    Your tweets are becoming positively Churchillian dear old thing.
    Randolph..
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    It does feel like more and more people are moving towards acceptance of the result, a few that I know who wanted a second vote now seem embarrassed by the idea that a democratic vote should be overturned. This one was a real surprise though he was Remain's target market - young, university educated, Scottish, lives in London, tech sector, well traveled and Asian. For him to give up the cause so quickly and possibly over something quite trivial just shows how shallow the sentiment for remain really was.
    We'll see how it goes when the inevitable batch of gloomy news rolls in. I'm pleased that the initial economic shock has been milder than anticipated. It's really helped settle people down. That, plus nice weather, Rio and the cricket. Feeling pretty mellow myself.
  • 619 said:


    trump says crazy racist things on purpose. Most people should hate him
    Aside from statements like his only being 'racist' from a (us definition of) liberal point of view (I dont think he goes round using tbe N word and the like)

    The issue is that liberal establishment types get apoplectic at the merest hint of racism and have used political correctness to suppress a whole range of opinions they dont agree with (in some ways it is far worse over there).

    Trump is setting out to troll and enrage them and sending out a message - vote for me and this liberal tyranny is oved. No more will you be sacked for saying Niggardly (that did actually halpen or making an innocent remark that someone from a group favoured by metropolitan liberals takes wholly unreasonable exception to. We will be free again....

    That is a very powerful message.

    While out and out racists dont give a s*** ordinary people are quite intimidated by the culture that has grown up over the last decades where an innocently made remark can land you in almost as much trouble as robbing a bank (such as Alan Hansen being forced to make a grovelling apology and nearly being sacked for referrring to a player as being Coloured).

    Trump is promising an end to this s***

    (that said I do have concerns that he is a bit of a nutter!)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    The Brits are the mildest of people, who maybe surprise themselves when they stand up to bullies. Like the inhabitants of The Shire.
    I still recall a @Sean_F comment about FPTP.

    He said it was akin to a brick on an elastic band. You can stretch it so far, then it smacks you in the face.

    The same applies to our tolerance. It looks like we'll endure all manner of nonsense, then we slap down with style.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Haven't seen much of their D this preseason. The Skins have a very interesting 3rd string running back called Kelley. Undrafted free agent. Running style looks mature ...
    "The hope still lives, and the dream will never die" ;)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sean_F said:

    I deliberately don't play chess, because it would take over my life, otherwise.
    Nothing wrong with an active hobby, Mr. F, especially one that involves socialising with other people. That is not having your life taken over, just enjoying it a bit more.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    SeanT said:

    There was, literally, in the end, just one European nation which would not be bullied into submission by Brussels. And it was us. Britain.
    The EU offers us nothing we don't already have. It can claim to offer democracy to nations that were ruled by dictators, but our democratic culture long predates the EU and is continuous. Claims that the EU guarantees a bit more maternity leave or better beaches seem trivial.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,388

    Then you have missed out on one of life's great intellectual pleasures and challenges. At my school we were actually taught bridge from the age of thirteen. One of the English periods each week was given over to a bridge lesson, along with after school competitions and events. By the time a chap got to the XVIth form bridge seemed to take up most of the time that was not already occupied by sport. I suppose we must have done some actual work but I honestly don't recall doing much.

    I take your point on the recriminations though. Analysis on what went well/badly is fine and necessary to learn and improve one's game (even after 50 years) but some people do descend into recrimination even at the table, which makes life horrid for everyone.
    I believe I was wiser than I knew. I have a total inability to recognise cards for what they are, which is odd considering I'm quite good at seeing patterns in general. But Clubs/Spades? Red cards/Black cards? Nah, mistake it time after time.
  • MaxPB said:

    More like an anti-Corbyn rally if he ever managed to become PM here!
    And for much the same reasons
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    Some gentle prodding later - a mixture of things, the economy not going south, the Apple ruling and the feeling (true or not) that Germany and France are allowed to get away with state aid while Ireland and Britain are not, so injustice I guess.

    He's not a fully blown unionist now, but doesn't want an independent Scotland to join the EU, especially if it means joining the Eurozone. After seeing the way Ireland have been treated for doing the same as so many others he doesn't think the EU would treat Scotland very well. He isn't sure how he would vote in a second independence referendum, he wants Scotland to be independent but not to join the EU once they achieve independence. A Yes vote would lead to that eventuality. Prefers being in the Union than being in the EU and doesn't believe that full independence will ever be on the cards because the SNP leadership are so tied to EU membership.

    The latter part is another interesting concept, again could just be a straw in the wind.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think Newcastle was the more interesting result. We knew that Sunderland - where UKIP was on more than 2x its national share - was always going to be a great result. It was when Newcastle was only marginally for Remain that I piled in.
    Ditto.

    Gambler's paradox: I now wish I'd piled in far more.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    nunu said:

    I think Trump has a good chance against Clinton, but people need to remember
    1) America is 70% white whereas Britain is 85%.
    2) Trump is doing abysmally with minorities. Here Brexit got 25% of Black Britons whereas 97% of AA see him unfavourably and 3% unsure!
    Yes, Clinton is still the favourite.

    But, Brexit shows that the despised can win, and their votes count.
  • Cyclefree said:

    You are assuming that nationalism necessarily brings hatred in its wake. It certainly did so in the 20th century but maybe that was because the nationalism was to a very significant extent based on ethnic and/or religious roots, rather than on democratic foundations. It does not follow at all that nationalism e.g. a feeling that one is British and some sort of pride in Britain, in what it has done and what it can do necessarily leads to hating others. That is a very old-fashioned view, as if the only sort of nationalism that could possibly exist is the sort that disfigured Europe in the last century.

    I am tremendously proud of the team I have built and run at work. It does not mean that I hate other teams. I am proud of my family, both my forebears and my children. I love them more than other families. But it doesn't mean that I hate other families or other children.

    This idea that nationalism is - and can only be - a bad thing needs challenging.

    I agree with absolutely everything you are saying this evening on this.

    The nation state and democracy was right at the heart of my reasons for voting Leave, as I put in my blogpost, but you put it far better than I do.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    SeanT said:

    Tolkien famously based the Hobbits on the stolid smallholders of rural Middle England, fighting and defeating the fiendish orcs, sorry Germans, on Flanders Field. He was in the war.

    This also explains the landscapes of Mordor, the deep blazing mines, and so forth.
    MaxPB said:

    It does feel like more and more people are moving towards acceptance of the result, a few that I know who wanted a second vote now seem embarrassed by the idea that a democratic vote should be overturned. This one was a real surprise though he was Remain's target market - young, university educated, Scottish, lives in London, tech sector, well traveled and Asian. For him to give up the cause so quickly and possibly over something quite trivial just shows how shallow the sentiment for remain really was.
    10 years from now EU support will be down to 20% or so
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Christian May
    Just under a year ago, Labour's @RichardBurgon spoke at a rally "hailing the challenge Venezuela posed to neoliberalism and privatisation."
  • Sean_F said:

    Internationalism is a form of imperialism, in which people are bound to obey bureaucracies.
    An excellent, and pithy, way of putting it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Interesting — flying directly from London to Perth, WA is perfectly feasible but the demand doesn't exist as yet according to this Simon Calder article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/direct-flights-heathrow-tehran-british-airways-you-won-t-find-flying-out-of-london-a7220781.html
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AnneJGP said:

    I believe I was wiser than I knew. I have a total inability to recognise cards for what they are, which is odd considering I'm quite good at seeing patterns in general. But Clubs/Spades? Red cards/Black cards? Nah, mistake it time after time.
    Gosh, Ma'am, it does sound like you made the right decision. It used to be reckoned that to play bridge one only needed to be able to count to 13 four times, simultaneously but if you cannot recognise the four suits then you are stuffed from the outset.

    Did you play backgammon at all?
  • Sean_F said:

    The Brits are the mildest of people, who maybe surprise themselves when they stand up to bullies. Like the inhabitants of The Shire.
    Which is what makes me proud to be British.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AnneJGP said:

    The level of knowledge on here never ceases to amaze me. @AndyJS 's spreadsheet was a masterpiece - but prior even to that was understanding what was needed to make sense of the results as they arrived in real time. From comments made by those following the MSM, this site was well ahead in interpretation of the results.
    I was a bit nervous about the spreadsheet because there was no guarantee it would turn out to be accurate.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    I think Trump has a good chance against Clinton, but people need to remember
    1) America is 70% white whereas Britain is 85%.
    2) Trump is doing abysmally with minorities. Here Brexit got 25% of Black Britons whereas 97% of AA see him unfavourably and 3% unsure!
    The current figure is 84-12 unpopular.

    http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1144-59ClintonTrumpFavorability.pdf

    To save time
    The columns are : Clinton now: Clinton Early August, Trump Now, Trump early August.

    Clinton has lost support every where. Trump has gained on non-white (mainly with the blacks).

    Whites......... 30-68 35-64 44-53 44-53
    Nonwhites... 62-34 73-23 17-79 15-82
    ...Blacks...... 80-19 84-10 12-84 4-91
    ...Hispanics. 55-40 71-28 18-80 18-79
  • AndyJS said:

    I was a bit nervous about the spreadsheet because there was no guarantee it would turn out to be accurate.

    I think you explained once how you put it together, but I've forgotten. Can you remind us?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    An excellent, and pithy, way of putting it.
    Pithy, but bollocks. It should give us pause for thought that the generation that created these international institutions was the generation that fought and won WW2. It's worked out pretty well since then, certainly better than what preceded it.

    We should be more humble.
  • nunu said:

    I think Trump has a good chance against Clinton, but people need to remember
    1) America is 70% white whereas Britain is 85%.
    2) Trump is doing abysmally with minorities. Here Brexit got 25% of Black Britons whereas 97% of AA see him unfavourably and 3% unsure!
    On current trends, Britain is about 20 years behind America on (1) and White Britons may be in a minority by the time I retire.

    Thankfully, on (2), we don't seem to have quite the same race relations problem.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Gosh, Ma'am, it does sound like you made the right decision. It used to be reckoned that to play bridge one only needed to be able to count to 13 four times, simultaneously but if you cannot recognise the four suits then you are stuffed from the outset.

    Did you play backgammon at all?
    I used to play a lot of backgammon - a great game, but don't know anyone who does.

    My mum loved Mahjong - I learned it as a kid but it's so 70s nowadays.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    I'm rewatching the BBC referendum footage from 10pm on (yes yes but it's fun).

    IDS speaks a whole load of sense at about 11.15pm about the unheard being heard. I know he is laughed at, but in this he was and is entirely right.

    I wonder whether Farage's concession of defeat at 10pm was genuine or not. I suspect it was.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Which is what makes me proud to be British.
    And that is an emotion that a great many of the elite (and some on here) just do not comprehend. Which is why they lost.

    Much fuss used to be made, especially by Labour supporters, that Cameron was out of touch. I rather fancy that in the end they were proved correct. Cameron actually didn't understand the people of these islands.
  • Jonathan said:

    Pithy, but bollocks. It should give us pause for thought that the generation that created these international institutions was the generation that fought and won WW2. It's worked out pretty well since then, certainly better than what preceded it.

    We should be more humble.
    I'd argue that inter-national cooperation (i.e. quite literally, cooperation between sovereign nations) is different to internationalism, whereby government is exercised at an international level.

    NATO would be an example of the former, and the EU the latter.
  • SeanT said:

    Yup. Tolkien caught that British characteristic perfectly. The modest yet flinty yeomen of the shire - who will not be budged, once they are in a truculent mood. As Oliver Cromwell put it (and he won the Civil War by relying on the same people):

    "I had rather have a plain, russet-coated Captain, that knows what he fights for, and loves what he knows, than that you call a Gentleman and is nothing else"
    And I think that 2016 and the events of June will in time be seen by historians as as significant an event as the English Civil War.

    It is so great when you read of the latest euro insanity coming out of the EU to instead of feeling varying degrees of irritation or even anger think, contentedly, we did it, we are leaving, what a great time to be alive
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    An excellent, and pithy, way of putting it.
    Robert Harris' Imperium is a great book, especially when Tiro is considering Roman Republican elections. He comments about how moving it is to see aristocrats queuing up with peasants to cast their votes. His point is not that their influence is equal. Of course not. The rich have massive influence. But, the votes of the poor still count. The rich have to sweat when running for election. And government by international bureaucrats removes all that.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    In the last 10 minutes, we have gone from 95 degrees blazing sun to total overcast and very heavy rain. The temperature has dropped almost 20 degrees.

    Heavy rain without thunder is unusual.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    SeanT said:


    The generation that created the EU is the generation that LOST the Second World War: guilty Germans, inept Italians, wounded prideful Frenchmen.

    Churchill was instrumental. Macmillan, Heath et al bore the personal scars of war that led them towards joining the EU.

    Ours is a fat, arrogant, spoilt generation, all too quick to adopt their victories as our own. We should listen more to the lessons they tried to teach us.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    I was a bit nervous about the spreadsheet because there was no guarantee it would turn out to be accurate.
    It was amazing - a lot of hard work obviously went into it and I just hope AndyJS made a suitable killing.
  • And that is an emotion that a great many of the elite (and some on here) just do not comprehend. Which is why they lost.

    Much fuss used to be made, especially by Labour supporters, that Cameron was out of touch. I rather fancy that in the end they were proved correct. Cameron actually didn't understand the people of these islands.
    I think Cameron was (and is) patriotic - he cracked up when describing his love for this country during his resignation speech, and also did so at Tory conference last year - but, in the end, he turned out to just be a creature of the Establishment: able to convince himself that whatever was the status quo was also in the national interest.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395


    I think you explained once how you put it together, but I've forgotten. Can you remind us?

    Using census data (8 variables) plus the UKIP share at the 2014 Euro elections. I spent about 6 weeks constantly modifying it until I thought it was as accurate as possible. The variables were White British, Non-White, Age 16-32, Level 1 Qualifications, Level 4 Qualifications and above, Professionals, Agricultural workers, UKIP share at 2014 Euro elections.
  • SeanT said:

    There was, literally, in the end, just one European nation which would not be bullied into submission by Brussels. And it was us. Britain.
    You could just as easily swap Brussels for Philip of Spain, Naloleon, The Kaiser or Hitler. There is a pattern
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Piquant

    In the BBC's referendum coverage, Laura Kuensberg gives the very first tiny indication that LEAVE might have won, at about 11.30pm, when she discloses rumours from Sunderland...

    The Sunderland returning officer seemed to be very upset at the result as she announced it.
  • AndyJS said:

    Using census data (8 variables) plus the UKIP share at the 2014 Euro elections. I spent about 6 weeks constantly modifying it until I thought it was as accurate as possible. The variables were White British, Non-White, Age 16-32, Level 1 Qualifications, Level 4 Qualifications and above, Professionals, Agricultural workers, UKIP share at 2014 Euro elections.
    I owe you a pint.
  • Jonathan said:

    Churchill was instrumental. Macmillan, Heath et al bore the personal scars of war that led them towards joining the EU.

    Ours is a fat, arrogant, spoilt generation, all too quick to adopt their victories as our own. We should listen more to the lessons they tried to teach us.
    I can't disagree with that.
  • And I think that 2016 and the events of June will in time be seen by historians as as significant an event as the English Civil War.

    It is so great when you read of the latest euro insanity coming out of the EU to instead of feeling varying degrees of irritation or even anger think, contentedly, we did it, we are leaving, what a great time to be alive
    Your own countrymen are more than able to fill the void and ensure our government continues to be conducted in a way that enrages you.
  • AndyJS said:

    Using census data (8 variables) plus the UKIP share at the 2014 Euro elections. I spent about 6 weeks constantly modifying it until I thought it was as accurate as possible. The variables were White British, Non-White, Age 16-32, Level 1 Qualifications, Level 4 Qualifications and above, Professionals, Agricultural workers, UKIP share at 2014 Euro elections.

    Thanks. An excellent job.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I think Cameron was (and is) patriotic - he cracked up when describing his love for this country during his resignation speech, and also did so at Tory conference last year - but, in the end, he turned out to just be a creature of the Establishment: able to convince himself that whatever was the status quo was also in the national interest.
    Yep- the pro EU civil servants got hold of him,Theresa needs a clear out.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    For NFL fans, Roger Goodell became commissioner 10 years ago today.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    I think Cameron was (and is) patriotic - he cracked up when describing his love for this country during his resignation speech, and also did so at Tory conference last year - but, in the end, he turned out to just be a creature of the Establishment: able to convince himself that whatever was the status quo was also in the national interest.
    I think he was right in that it was in our national economic interest, as many people have pointed out.

    I've noticed that we tend to talk almost exclusively in terms of economic and transactional terms whenever we've dealt with EU matters; migrants are a net economic benefit etc. It's a very technocratic world view.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PlatoSaid said:

    I used to play a lot of backgammon - a great game, but don't know anyone who does.

    My mum loved Mahjong - I learned it as a kid but it's so 70s nowadays.
    Miss. P, I used to play Backgammon at the bridge club whilst waiting for people to turn up but more recently some of us used to play in the village pub on a Sunday evening. Its a good game for fun over a beer or two, but it can get expensive when you start turning that gambling dice.

    As for Mahjong, my grandparents generation used to play it (great uncle Louis bought a set back with him after a spell with the China Fleet before WW1), but I have not seen any kwailos play it since I was a child. When I was in Hong Kong in the seventies the locals played it like mad (I used to fall asleep to the click-click-click of the tiles from a game beneath my window). I expect they still do.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    International Spectator
    Suicides per 100,000 people per year

    Korea: 29
    India: 21
    Russia 19
    Japan: 18
    US: 12
    France: 12
    Turkey: 8
    UK: 6
    Israel: 6
    Saudi: 0.4

    (WHO)
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,756
    edited September 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    You are assuming that nationalism necessarily brings hatred in its wake. It certainly did so in the 20th century but maybe that was because the nationalism was to a very significant extent based on ethnic and/or religious roots, rather than on democratic foundations. It does not follow at all that nationalism e.g. a feeling that one is British and some sort of pride in Britain, in what it has done and what it can do necessarily leads to hating others. That is a very old-fashioned view, as if the only sort of nationalism that could possibly exist is the sort that disfigured Europe in the last century.

    I am tremendously proud of the team I have built and run at work. It does not mean that I hate other teams. I am proud of my family, both my forebears and my children. I love them more than other families. But it doesn't mean that I hate other families or other children.

    This idea that nationalism is - and can only be - a bad thing needs challenging.

    Your justification for nationalism sounds very much like similar appeals made by the advocates of communism - yes, it's been a disaster so far, but that's just because it's been the wrong sort of communism/nationalism. If people would only do it properly, it'd be fantastic!

    Otherwise, there's nothing wrong with being proud of personal achievements, but that has little relation to the vicarious pride of nationalism.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    International Spectator
    Suicides per 100,000 people per year

    Korea: 29
    India: 21
    Russia 19
    Japan: 18
    US: 12
    France: 12
    Turkey: 8
    UK: 6
    Israel: 6
    Saudi: 0.4

    (WHO)

    I doubt the Saudi figure can be trusted very much. I suspect it's probably higher than the UK in reality.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016

    Miss. P, I used to play Backgammon at the bridge club whilst waiting for people to turn up but more recently some of us used to play in the village pub on a Sunday evening. Its a good game for fun over a beer or two, but it can get expensive when you start turning that gambling dice.

    As for Mahjong, my grandparents generation used to play it (great uncle Louis bought a set back with him after a spell with the China Fleet before WW1), but I have not seen any kwailos play it since I was a child. When I was in Hong Kong in the seventies the locals played it like mad (I used to fall asleep to the click-click-click of the tiles from a game beneath my window). I expect they still do.
    We play mah-jong every so often in my family, but I found out recently that the rules we use are nothing like the ones most people do. Never played backgammon though.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2016
    AndyJS said:

    I doubt the Saudi figure can be trusted very much. I suspect it's probably higher than the UK in reality.
    Indeed. Family "shame" will prevent the vast majority of people complaining/reporting.

    It's like their stats on child abuse which show the nation with the most sexually frustrated and repressed men on earth has virtually no problem with it. 'Cos they're all so pious, innit.

    Edited to put 'shame' in quotes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    AndyJS said:

    We play mah-jong every so often in my family, but I found out recently that the rules we use are nothing like the ones most people do. Never played backgammon though.
    However played, MJ is essentially a gambling game, 90% luck, where you live in hope of the infrequent mega scoring hand that wipes out an evening of small wins by your opponents. Hence why so many Chinese love it so.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016

    Your own countrymen are more than able to fill the void and ensure our government continues to be conducted in a way that enrages you.
    I can't put it better than Sean T already has:


    "Life will not be perfect outside the EU. By any means. But from now on me and my fellow Britons can elect and dismiss the people who make these laws, and get them reversed if we so decide. We are a self governing nation again.

    Joy."
  • SeanT said:

    My feelings entirely. There was some annoying news from Brussels yesterday, and my immediate and normalised reaction was Oh god, we just have to submit, we are helpless, and then I realised: NO, WE'RE OUT. And I felt a mild elation.

    Life will not be perfect outside the EU. By any means. But from now on me and my fellow Britons can elect and dismiss the people who make these laws, and get them reversed if we so decide. We are a self governing nation again.

    Joy.

    I can't. I live in a very safe Tory constituency, so my vote counts for nothing. Nor can I vote for a new head of state, as citizens of other countries vote for a president. My vote in the EU elections was the only one that could actually make a difference.
  • new thread

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Is there a better comedy about terrorists than True Lies?

    I saw it 4x at the pictures.

    I thought Four Lions was dull bar a couple of good scenes.

    https://youtu.be/3B7HG8_xbDw
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    However played, MJ is essentially a gambling game, 90% luck, where you live in hope of the infrequent mega scoring hand that wipes out an evening of small wins by your opponents. Hence why so many Chinese love it so.
    You're right.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    The Sunderland returning officer seemed to be very upset at the result as she announced it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQCWgMohe8I
This discussion has been closed.