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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » George Osborne, the modern day Winston Churchill?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » George Osborne, the modern day Winston Churchill?
We’ve been here before, a charismatic former Tory Chancellor who warned the country and Tory party against a particular course of action, his counsel was ignored, he was exiled to the backbenches whilst his warnings initially proved to be incorrect.
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Wasn't Churchill exiled to the backbenches in the Twenties, more than 5 years before Nazis and rearmament became an issue?
Would be like turning to Dr Shipman to clear up your Grandmas cough.
TeamGBBugger
'Alternative Investment Fund Managers' (what ever they are.....)
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-advises-extension-funds-passport-12-non-eu-countries
I'd want another zero (Possibly more) on Osbo next Tory leader.
tim, maybe, or the good Alan Brooke
(OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)
Edit: #NeverTrump adverts asking him to keep his promise to withdraw if he isn't in contention now look like p*ss*ng in the wind.
Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
It would have to be a major turn of fortunes for George to get a look in, such as a major deteriation in our economy.
@PickardJE: Other rumoured names for Labour general secretary: Jennie Formby of Unite, Jon Lansman and Sam Tarry.
O_o
Is that Mr Hunt at the back?
Let me just stop you right there.....
Hmmm.....
If we said to the EU that our red lines are we must control our immigration, UK law must have supremacy and we won't pay a dime to the EU, but we want as good a deal on access for each of finance, goods and services as the best other non-EU country (who does not accept freedom of movement, pay into the budget or accept the ECJ rulings), what would that actually look like?
Clarification, the best deal for any non-EU country on each parameter, not the single country with the best overall deal on those parameters combined.
Besides (1) he is damaged goods, and there are almost no examples at the top of politics where people get any sort of second chance. The very fact that TSE goes back to the 1930s for his precedent actually makes the point.
And besides (2) it will be the whole of the Tory party that will be seen as complicit if Brexit turns sour. The whole anti-EU situation is of their making, the Referendum was their doing, and the outcome largely down to the actions of leading Tories (including Osbo and Cammo).
If Brexit goes bad, it won't be another Tory that gets the political benefit, as others have already said.
http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/
Corbyn address every person who will vote for him in 2020.
Osborne wanted us to vote for the (current) threat.
Osborne = appeaser
Roll on Mandotory reselection.
Thats the only way we will a united party and see if a Socialist Labour is as unpopular with voters as the Plotters think.
2010/2015 Labour lost i think.
Which is a fancy way of saying that the trend is your friend.
Labour 2015 Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn 29,659
Apols if its been posted, but interesting.
The FTA which goes furthest in each of those areas is the one with Canada, which is agreed in principle but not ratified. It's reasonably comprehensive on goods, and not much at all on services and finance. It is highly specific to Canada, which has issues on inter-provincial trading and regulation and wouldn't be a blueprint for Britain. I notice there are tariff quotas on just about everything in that deal, but don't know if they are generous or tight in practice. The best other deal which is actually implemented is the one for Korea covering machinery, chemicals and most agriculture with almost nothing on services. That arrangement is felt to be highly unfavourable for Korea.
The point is, there is a vast gulf between a genuine single market arrangement such as that enjoyed by the EEA and Switzerland and the most comprehensive bilateral FTA.
At the very best Corbyn is a cul-de-sac that Labour will one-day recover from.
At some point, the EU have to get some political control on the way things are done and communicated. Whatever the merits of the EC's case here, the political tone-deafness to Ireland's realities and to the timing of this in the immediate wake of Brexit is beyond astounding.
Issues such as this need to be run through some sort of political and communications review at the highest EC and Council of Ministers level before a final decision is made and especially before the decision is announced so that the fall-out can be assessed properly before the decision is made and thereafter managed better once it is announced.
Why, his very posture tells me here is a man of true greatness.
F1: Massa's retiring:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37245221
The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens
appalling performance by the lad too. gave a soft penalty, failed to give a goal where the ball was miles over the line.
terrible business. Japan were a bit shite too mind. too much pissing about when they needed to be direct and harass a goalie who couldn't catch...
Also from there
"Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for competition between 2004 and 2010, suggests her former colleagues have taken the wrong approach over Apple’s Irish tax affairs.
Writing for the Guardian, she says:
Rather than pursuing a handful of countries and companies for the past, we should focus on shaping a fair tax system for the future.
The controversy about state aid and tax rulings is not about whether companies pay their fair share, but where that share should be paid. That is an important question, but not one for state aid."
Re Winston’s political perambulations, I wonder whether David Cameron will have a come back in some capacity other than leader. He showed himself to be a master of the HoC at the despatch box, and though the Conservatives don’t need him right now, a man of his talents shouldn’t languish in backbench obscurity. Could he not be useful to the brexit team? After all, though he made a hash of the pre-referendum “negotiations”, he has been to all the capitals and met the main men (and women) there and must have an idea what hopes and concerns they have. I would rather have him involved than “Leavocrats” (c) Lord O’Donnell whose recent broadcast on the matter I’m currently listening to. He seems to revel in the complexity of it all. I get the feeling that the civil service would do the equivalent of “gold plating” EU directives when undoing them.
ZHC %
Also children in Poverty are much more likely to be from families in work.
This is episode 1
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiWkYW9p-7OAhXoAsAKHctxDRsQtwIIPDAE&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTzyAuFR60o&usg=AFQjCNGpR8etz3xYNbosMmX7GIJegMva5w
Not Tory Lite enough?
Returning to New Labour is also a cul-de-sac thats resulted in 2 defeats dont you think.
It will be interesting to see how protectionist and anti-free market the EU will now get without the UK's influence and voting rights.
But if Ireland cannot provide low enough tax breaks, then they lose their advantage anyway.
Isn't the real problem that the US want to collect all the tax revenue for themselves, hence them being upset with the EU's pronouncement?
Yes Ireland is HQ base for lots of these US and other firms because of the EU, but also because they speak English, and have an attractive tax and business regime.
The EU seemingly has a tin ear to the possibility that though some compromise of sorts will doubtless be cobbled together on this issue with Apple:-
a) Many US/far Eastern firms will take note and mark it down as a "negative" in the EU column. Huge retrospective bills dating back decades are not the way to attract investment.
b) So will the Irish to an extent
c) So will the USA, especially if they got effectively stiffed for the bill by Apple claiming it as a loss against US tax possibly?
None of this might matter on its own but it's exactly this sort of dripping tap of bollocks that eventually cheesed the Brits off enough to do the "unthinkable" and pull the plug. Now I'm sure the Irish are way off being in that place, but if the perception grows that being in the EU, creates problems with their other two big trading partners ie the US and the UK would the thought grow of severing links with the awkward one and snuggling up to the other two a bit more? Sure 800 years of history between UK and Ireland and all that, but nobody this side of the Irish Sea is trying to take away their independent decision making powers are they? Doubtless the UK and Ireland could sign a free trade deal by about Friday week without too much exaggeration (OK a bit). Solves any Northern border issue at a stroke too.
Messy with them in the Euro though.
That is a fascinating article in a number of ways.
First, if Ireland's ''industrial revolution'' was so precious, then why didn;t they ensure their biggest potential free market backer in the EU (Britain) remained? Why didn';t they vote with us sometimes?
We also have the answer in that article. The sly, chippy emnity to the former colonial power.
Ireland's EU policy, like that of all the smaller countries, has been a gargantuan failure. Their overriding priority should have been to ensure the free market balancer and second largest writer of cheques stayed at all costs.
Instead they took Britain for granted. They must live with the consequences.
The old sharp line between tax evasion (illegal) and tax reduction (what everyone should be doing) is blurred these days by aggressive tax avoidance schemes that involve the application of legitimate reduction measures in circumstances that are misrepresented (in some cases with the connivance of governments,as with Apple). We don't have good ways of dealing with this.
Oh, you mean the other kind of balls-deep....
Given that, what was Ireland's policy in the EU? Back Britain? throw its weight behind the free market agenda??
Was it f8ck. They were right behind the French and Germans in all the key votes. What monumental idiocy.
I think the EU decision is bad because its retrospective and manipulates state aid rules in a way they weren't intended but I don't think its a clear cut case for Apple or Ireland either.