A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I remember also the post where you first shared with us your actual Leave vote, which appeared to have been an instinctive decision that you made pretty much on the day.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
Not just you.
But not to worry, SeanT will change his mind again. He changes his mind more often than his underpants and his political opinions have both the consistency and value of cold wank in custard.
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
5am in a hotel in Greece, with my Swiss girlfriend who had been egging me on to vote leave for a few months (not that I needed it). Felt amazing. The rest of the wedding party was shellshocked the following morning but quite a few happy faces as well, including the groom, but not his Greek wife!
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
Mr. T, I remember the first hour after polls closed. Rumours of a 10 point Remain victory. Financial duffers who thought their exit polls meant we'd stay in and it was all but nailed on [there was no official exit poll because it was simply too difficult to be accurate].
And then the doubt, and some genuine uncertainty. I went to bed then, and awoke to a significant surprise.
In truth these attitudes have been present for a long time.
It's just they weren't expressed so vehemently and broadly as long as the plebs were seen to be toeing the line.
The plebs have never towed the line, but they have always voted in their own self interest.
At heart the British people are decent, thoughtful, and generous.
However, no one could accuse them all of being sophisticated enough to understand some of the sophisticated pros and cons of the Brexit debate. They usually look to broad political allegiancies (Lab/Cons/etc) and trust those people to look after their interests. But with Brexit those allegiancies were thrown up into the air and we were presented with a smorgasbord of alliances and cross-party platforms so no wonder people were further confused.
I very much dislike the disdain shown by the chattering classes, daily mash-like, that we have seen post June 23rd.
But there is absolutely no doubt that within the context of any popular vote never being "wrong", in this instance the people voted against their own self-interest, for reasons they didn't wholly understand and no, not because of some greater patriotic vision, but because when you are confused, and irritated, and frustrated, and are given an opportunity to lash out, you lash out. And so they did. And it will be (probably imperceptibly) bad for the country.
And that, as far as I'm concerned, is what made it the "wrong" decision.
Aw! The poor dears didn't know what was going on. so they had a big tantrum in the voting booth.
Do you think they knew what was going on?
A report just out (can't recall who) today on the radio, said just about that no one really knew what the truth or lies were on both sides of the debate.
That is certainly true of me.
For a long time I was concerned that my gut instinct urging 'Leave' was just childish Yah-boo to the establishment. However, the debate on here convinced me that there was at least as much of a solid case in favour of Leave as of Remain, so I decided to go with gut instinct.
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I remember also the post where you first shared with us your actual Leave vote, which appeared to have been an instinctive decision that you made pretty much on the day.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
Trump hasn't exactly been keeping his mouth shut recently!
George Osborne is way too talented to hang around on the Tory backbenches until people appreciate his talents. I will be very surprised if he is still an MP in a year's time which makes this proposal deeply unattractive.
That this view is prevalent exposes something very dysfunctional in our political system. Should it really be the case that a talented person has no business in Westminster other than as a Cabinet minister?
What are Osborne's talents pls?
What a question to ask on this site! Do you not know he has been hailed on here as a near perfect chancellor?
I don't see it either. The man failed to achieve any of his targets but claimed the credit for a bunch of stuff that were nothing to do with him. If he had spent less time impersonating Gordon Brown and more time actually thinking about his day job then he might not be on the back benches.
What talent that he has that any honest company would want to pay for is beyond me. So I expect Goldman Sachs or J.P.Morgan or the like will bung him huge chunks of money.
P.S. Could be a pointer for Mrs. Free and her gang. Who shall we really investigate next? Well the company the employs Osborne. Except, of course, they are snowed under with work anyway. The City is that corrupt these days.
Given how wrong the 'experts' were on just about everything, what makes you think they knew what was going on??
Did anybody really know what was 'going on'
very few. But I absolutely don't ascribe to the dismissal of experts. Dear god how idiotic. What next, the Cultural Revolution, sending out professors of European Law at Liverpool University to work on the grain harvest?
"Brexit is a cry for meaning in a world overrun with research and information. It is a plea for morality in a time when we’re governed by sums and maths. As Charles Leadbeater put it, Brexit was about “restoring a semblance of meaning to people’s lives”; it was a “vote for something more than money — for pride, belonging, community, identity, a sense of ‘home’”."
Spot on. Although he should have added "and a sense of at least a modicum of control over their own destiny"
You are easily impressed. It was mainly a plea for fewer "darkies", "Polaks" and "Moooslims".
The French revolution was simultaneously an explosion of atavistic desires, to kill the rich and take bloody revenge on the church, and also a great leap forward in civilisation, in terms of the rights of man.
Great political ruptures are never entirely good or bad, in their motivation or their outcome. The French Revolution was still a profoundly positive and necessary thing, for mankind.
You could add the English Civil War; wasn't pleasant to live through, but was worth it in the end.
I don't think it was particularly unpleasant to live through. It wasn't total war. And I agree, it was overall a good thing. I don't think the same about the French revolution. Or the Russian one.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do -...- and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I remember also the post where you first shared with us your actual Leave vote, which appeared to have been an instinctive decision that you made pretty much on the day.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore,--cut--- give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
I suspected Leave could do it when we started hearing reports about little old ladies and the disabled struggling to get to the polling booths. Newcastle was interesting but Sunderland was a real kick.
I lost all respect for Wollaston after her EU-turn.
One of the most unfortunately-timed political defections in history.
Hilarious though. No doubt she was promised a glittering career. Heart of stone etc.
Indeed. And now it seems I risk the prospect of her picketing the nice old-fashioned sweet shop round the corner from the Totnes Con Club. Is it really worth putting my party membership at risk for a pound's worth of Raspberry Ruffles?
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I remember also the post where you first shared with us your actual Leave vote, which appeared to have been an instinctive decision that you made pretty much on the day.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
It was @AndyJS all the way. It was a monumentally brilliant work.
(a) ranked Europe as most important & had immigration in 2/3 (b) ranked immigration top and had Europe 2/3
I'd have thought that could be interesting - I suspect that it might allow tentative conclusions as to what is driving people's views on leaving Europe (i.e. to separate the @rcs1000 from the @Paul_Bedfordshire groups)
I'm not sure that either of us are that bothered about immigration.
I get the feeling that RCSs driver is economic and mine is primarily about sovereignty ie wishing the elected Westminster Government to make our laws not unelected bureacrats overseas.
While the EU immigration issue is a symptom of not having sovereignty in this area as it is an EU competence, I find a bit of a boring subject (probably because it dosent affect me a great deal personally) and can't get very worked up with it.
Hence I'm on record as being in favour of EEA/EFTA with just existing EFTA permitted limitations of freedom of movement for fear of damaging the economy with a hard exit (and reviewing whther EEA is still worth it 10 years after leaving once we have trade deals in place with RoW)
We seem to be heading for a hard exit though, which suggests that the Tories are worried about losing marginals to a resurgent UKIP if freedom of movement is not canned.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
snip.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
After falling asleep during the wee hours at the GE - I was prepared with Red Bull to go with the bottles of fizz.
It wasn't until about 3am that I became convinced - a BBC reporter claiming Birmingham was going strongly for Remain earlier was totally undone. Sunderland was a great result.
If you haven't seen it - the profile of the local guy who made it such a race is rather amusing.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
lol. Given you're such a fan of my remarks you'll know that I was LEAVE from beginning to end of the campaign. I used to give my
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be understanding, make sure they have a nice warm blanket tucked round their knees, that someone's bringing them their cup of tea. No need to be mean to the poor old dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
The Old Colonel Blimps voted Leave, it was the youngsters and moustachioed hipsters who voted Remain.
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
(OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)
He is going to win, too.
Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
I've always been surprised by the low quality of US presidential candidates, but Hillary is in a class of her own. Strong poison. You can sell washing powder but she's arsenic.
In 1975-6 she ran one of Carter's state election campaigns, setup Arkansas's first rape crisis hotline and was a pioneer in child advocacy.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
Youe.
lol. Given you're such a fan of my remarks you'll know that I was LEAVE from beginning to end of the campaign. I used to give my
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be understanding, make sure they have a nice warm blanket tucked round their knees, that someone's bringing them their cup of tea. No need to be mean to the poor old dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
The Old Colonel Blimps voted Leave, it was the youngsters and moustachioed hipsters who voted Remain.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember my telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find that remark I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't then you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be understanding, make sure they have a nice warm blanket tucked round their knees, that someone's bringing them their cup of tea. No need to be mean to the poor old dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
(OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)
He is going to win, too.
Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
I've always been surprised by the low quality of US presidential candidates, but Hillary is in a class of her own. Strong poison. You can sell washing powder but she's arsenic.
In 1975-6 she ran one of Carter's state election campaigns, setup Arkansas's first rape crisis hotline and was a pioneer in child advocacy.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
lol. Given you're such a fan of my remarks you'll know that I was LEAVE from beginning to end of the campaign. I used to give my
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be understanding, make sure they have a nice warm blanket tucked round their knees, that someone's bringing them their cup of tea. No need to be mean to the poor old dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
The Old Colonel Blimps voted Leave, it was the youngsters and moustachioed hipsters who voted Remain.
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
Many, many old (and not so old) Colonel Blimps voted Remain.
But yes, good analogy. A bit crap. Crapper than it would otherwise have been.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember my telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find that remark I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't then you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be understanding, make sure they have a nice warm blanket tucked round their knees, that someone's bringing them their cup of tea. No need to be mean to the poor old dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
When Swindon and Broxbourne results came in and the rumours that Sheffield was too close to call.
I was just waiting for some results outside the N.E. to be sure.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I the day.
I also mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
February.
I was the last person to vote in our polling station. My train home was delayed and got into the station at 9.47 pm. I had to break every driving law going to make it on time. Needn't have bothered.
I did a straight 36 hour stretch without sleep and wrote this for our magazine blog on the afternoon of 24th June, having been awake for over 30 hours. I was quite pleased with myself.
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
I haven't seen that yet - his speech in Everett on blacks voting for him was solid stuff and not shouty at all.
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
I am pretty sure of this. It's going to take masses of time, money and effort to end up in a place that is somewhat worse than where we started and where would otherwise be. The government obviously can't admit to anything other than success, so that's what it will be:
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
I haven't seen that yet - his speech in Everett on blacks voting for him was solid stuff and not shouty at all.
Journalists had already filed "Look at statesmen like Trump" pieces that had to be re-edited/ripped up after the speech. The New Your Times piece's edits are particularly hilarious.
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I remember also the post where you first shared with us your actual Leave vote, which appeared to have been an instinctive decision that you made pretty much on the day.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
That night PB made people a lot of money. There's an article or something there, I am sure.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
We at pb should know this more than most. The crowds were telling us that LEAVE was going to win - in terms of the numbers of bets on LEAVE by the end. But we, the "experts", ignored them. Me incluced. I thought REMAIN would do it.
The thing that the politicians should think about is, why with so much going for the Remain side, did Leave win? I'd argue that the Leave campaign was better than Remain's, and perhaps that was partly because Remain were selling a rubbish deal.
But without a doubt, Leave won partly because enough of the population thought they had nothing to lose. The politicians on both sides of the debate need to think carefully about why that was and what it could mean in the future.
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
I am pretty sure of this. It's going to take masses of time, money and effort to end up in a place that is somewhat worse than where we started and where would otherwise be. The government obviously can't admit to anything other than success, so that's what it will be:
Spin.
@Grabcoque earlier in this thread wrote: [DRAMATIS PERSONAE: Remoan, a man who is WRONG about ALL THINGS. Reality an EVERYEMAN]
Remoan: DOOM IS COMING
Reality: Actually it's fine
Remoan: AH, BUT WE NEVER SAID THAT THERE WOULD BE A RECESSION
Reality: Actually you did, here
Remoan: OKAY BUT WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD BE IMMEDIATELY AF...
Reality: Yes, you did. Right here.
Remoan: NO WE DIDN'T PHONY WAR WE DON'T HAVE BREXIT YET THEN YOU'LL SEE THEN YOU'LL BE FORCED TO EAT YOUR OWN CHILDREN TO SURVIVE THE DOOM IS COMING JUST WAIT AND SEE!!!!
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
I haven't seen that yet - his speech in Everett on blacks voting for him was solid stuff and not shouty at all.
Journalists had already filed "Look at statesmen like Trump" pieces that had to be re-edited/ripped up after the speech. The New Your Times piece's edits are particularly hilarious.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
February.
I was the last person to vote in our polling station. My train home was delayed and got into the station at 9.47 pm. I had to break every driving law going to make it on time. Needn't have bothered.
I did a straight 36 hour stretch without sleep and wrote this for our magazine blog on the morning of 24th June, having been awake for over 30 hours. I was quite pleased with myself.
Good effort sir. I was on a stag do the following day - 3 hours sleep, bought a new mac and then off to Rutland. Where I was the only Leaver amongst a group of 15.
They quietened down after I brought out the magnum of bolly, paid for by betfair wins....
I lost all respect for Wollaston after her EU-turn.
One of the most unfortunately-timed political defections in history.
Hilarious though. No doubt she was promised a glittering career. Heart of stone etc.
Indeed. And now it seems I risk the prospect of her picketing the nice old-fashioned sweet shop round the corner from the Totnes Con Club. Is it really worth putting my party membership at risk for a pound's worth of Raspberry Ruffles?
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
I haven't seen that yet - his speech in Everett on blacks voting for him was solid stuff and not shouty at all.
Trump in arizona was positively screaming throughout most of his speech, it wouldn't have mattered much if the entire country wasn't watching after his brilliant success in mexico earlier in the day.
Trump has to remember that the General Electorate responds like a female, you woo it soflty soflty not screamy screamy.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
That night PB made people a lot of money. There's an article or something there, I am sure.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
February.
I was the last person to vote in our polling station. My train home was delayed and got into the station at 9.47 pm. I had to break every driving law going to make it on time. Needn't have bothered.
I did a straight 36 hour stretch without sleep and wrote this for our magazine blog on the morning of 24th June, having been awake for over 30 hours. I was quite pleased with myself.
Good effort sir. I was on a stag do the following day - 3 hours sleep, bought a new mac and then off to Rutland. Where I was the only Leaver amongst a group of 15.
They quietened down after I brought out the magnum of bolly, paid for by betfair wins....
15/1 at 10pm on Thursday 23rd. 15 TO BLOODY ONE!
Seems a long time ago now. I hardly think about it now, except when I read that Remainers have to get used to it. That annoys me. I think the vast majority of us have.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
It was very amusing to watch Betfair that night, as the same dumb-fucks who had told us with such certainty we would be doomed if we voted to Leave piled in to back Remain with every result that was a supposed "win" for Remain. Those of us in the know realised that those self-same results were telling us Remain was falling well short of where they needed to be in those declarations and it was Leave's to lose. All on the back of AndyJ's spreadsheet. The City should have forgotten private polling and bought AndyJ's spreadsheet - and kept it secret! They would have made a killing.
As I've said before, the smartest guys weren't in the Remain room.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
B
Not good enough for you?
Seabeaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
lol. Given you're such a fan of my remarks you'll know that I was LEAVE from beginning to end of the campaign. I used to give my
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be undersld dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
The Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
Many, many old (and not so old) Colonel Blimps voted Remain.
But yes, good analogy. A bit crap. Crapper than it would otherwise have been.
You don't think the EU is itself really quite crap then? Really really really quite fucking crap. Hint: ask the Greeks or the Italians or the Portuguese.
Hmm, ok Sean. We really can rehearse the arguments we had pre-June 23rd about the pros and cons, but I don't think anyone including me has the stomach for it.
The Greeks bent over backwards to stay in. Oh yes, I know, they voted against this, and then the government only went and did that, and perhaps you should consider why the government did ignore the protests on the street and take a course of action they thought would be under the circumstances the least bad for the country.
It's why we ignore the G20 protests. Great passion, not quite thought it through, though.
It stuff like this which makes me think Trump has no intention of being president, he just wants a far right tv network for himself
The real question is why isn't Clinton romping home.
She isn't very likeable and a lot of people haven't thought about it yet.
She also spent the last month fundraising, and the proper campaigning with Bill, Obama and Biden starts in Sept.
Trump has said so many terrible things that I would think when people think about it, Clinton will start to romp it home
Which is worse - to say some 'terrible things' like Trump or to be proven over and over again a shameless liar like Hillary?
Hillary maybe a liar but she is winning because Trump has a big shouty mouth.
For example yesterday's immigration speech seems to have pushed back the cause of immigration reform in the USA by a generation simply because Trump delivered it screaming.
I watched a CNN guy saying that merits are a bad thing because america needs to get browner, just as a reaction to Trump.
You watch the Clinton News Network and expect a balanced opinion? Obama's been expelling illegals for several years - but he's brown so that's OK.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
We at pb should know this more than most. The crowds were telling us that LEAVE was going to win - in terms of the numbers of bets on LEAVE by the end. But we, the "experts", ignored them. Me incluced. I thought REMAIN would do it.
The thing that the politicians should think about is, why with so much going for the Remain side, did Leave win? I'd argue that the Leave campaign was better than Remain's, and perhaps that was partly because Remain were selling a rubbish deal.
But without a doubt, Leave won partly because enough of the population thought they had nothing to lose. The politicians on both sides of the debate need to think carefully about why that was and what it could mean in the future.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence so long that your arse was sore, and having happened to fall off on the Leave side on the way to the polling station does not now - when the £ is still collapsed and a Pole has just been beaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
That night PB made people a lot of money. There's an article or something there, I am sure.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
Sean, the 'wisdom of crowds' holds for issues that are subject to the law of large numbers. AFAIK, it does not hold for other items.
'The thing that the politicians should think about is, why with so much going for the Remain side, did Leave win? I'd argue that the Leave campaign was better than Remain's, and perhaps that was partly because Remain were selling a rubbish deal.'
Cameron got a crap deal and Remain needed to sell the EU, both were big fails.
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
I am pretty sure of this. It's going to take masses of time, money and effort to end up in a place that is somewhat worse than where we started and where would otherwise be. The government obviously can't admit to anything other than success, so that's what it will be:
Spin.
@Grabcoque earlier in this thread wrote: [DRAMATIS PERSONAE: Remoan, a man who is WRONG about ALL THINGS. Reality an EVERYEMAN]
Remoan: DOOM IS COMING
Reality: Actually it's fine
Remoan: AH, BUT WE NEVER SAID THAT THERE WOULD BE A RECESSION
Reality: Actually you did, here
Remoan: OKAY BUT WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD BE IMMEDIATELY AF...
Reality: Yes, you did. Right here.
Remoan: NO WE DIDN'T PHONY WAR WE DON'T HAVE BREXIT YET THEN YOU'LL SEE THEN YOU'LL BE FORCED TO EAT YOUR OWN CHILDREN TO SURVIVE THE DOOM IS COMING JUST WAIT AND SEE!!!!
[EXEUNT]
You are talking about me? As far as I recall I have been fairly consistent in my predictions for the consequences of Brexit. Unlike most here I never rated the chances of the UK being part of the single market or EEA. I have always seen Brexit as debilitating rather than catastrophic. Nothing will be resolved by Brexit. It is essentially a reaction against globalisation when success comes from how you play the globalisation game and by not opting out. I haven't had to revise my predictions so far.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
Sean, the 'wisdom of crowds' holds for issues that are subject to the law of large numbers. AFAIK, it does not hold for other items.
Crowds say Jeremy Corbyn will win the next general election as Labour leader. Experts disagree. I know whose side I am on.
I've just watched Farages Trump speech for the first time.
Apparently it was a short notice thing - he was invited the night before as he was in the area.
I saw comments as to it would not resonate as brexit was not a big issue over there, but he tailored it very effectively to the USA.
Can see why Hilarys lot were on about UKIP and the Kremlin, it was quite a speech to fire up people with the don't trust the establishment, we did it, you can do it message.
Whether it has anything to do with the recent poll tightening is probably mixing causation with correlation though (unless you want to tease a liberal democrat friend who can't abide Fargle )
I think Trump's recovery was entirely due to him shutting his mouth up. Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
Trump advisers: Ok sir, I know you hate it but I think we're going to need to do some compromising & positioning. Let's start with a 180 degree pivot on immigration.
Trump: 180 degrees is for PUSSIES! I'm gonna go the full 360!
You watch the Clinton News Network and expect a balanced opinion? Obama's been expelling illegals for several years - but he's brown so that's OK.
I don't expect a balanced opinion from a bunch of supermodels commenting on the news.
The reason why CNN is now synonymous with bad journalism is because it's 100% commentary and 0% news, they have been transformed into the Sunday Sport of TV.
'The thing that the politicians should think about is, why with so much going for the Remain side, did Leave win? I'd argue that the Leave campaign was better than Remain's, and perhaps that was partly because Remain were selling a rubbish deal.'
Cameron got a crap deal and Remain needed to sell the EU, both were big fails.
I was minded to leave all along. What truly sealed it for me was the crapness of what was offered to Cameron. It convinced me beyond doubt that reform from within was nothing but hopeless fantasy, and staying within an unreformed EU was nothing but a slow death.
"Brexit is a cry for meaning in a world overrun with research and information. It is a plea for morality in a time when we’re governed by sums and maths. As Charles Leadbeater put it, Brexit was about “restoring a semblance of meaning to people’s lives”; it was a “vote for something more than money — for pride, belonging, community, identity, a sense of ‘home’”."
Spot on. Although he should have added "and a sense of at least a modicum of control over their own destiny"
Seamus Heaney put it very well in a lecture he gave a few months before he died.
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Our politicians forgot that. There is more to life than economics.
The politicians who deserve to prosper are those who remember that nations are more than simply a random collection of people in one geographical area, all of them interchangeable, simply breathing widgets.
The concept of "home", of "our home" is a very powerful and deep rooted one. It is worthwhile. And it is one which politicians mess with at their peril.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
Sean, it may just be me, but personally I find your attempted re-invention as PB's principal "Mr Brexit" both unconvincing and somewhat distasteful.
I remember very well that your posts during the campaign were all over the place; indeed you told us that you confirmed to a passing pollster that you were intending to vote Remain.
I remember also the post where you first shared with us your actual Leave vote, which appeared to have been an instinctive decision that you made pretty much on the day.
I also remember your posts during the days after the vote, when the £ was collapsing and Poles were openly being abused in the streets, when you came close to admitting that you may have made a terrible mistake.
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You sat on the fence .
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
Newcastle. Should have been a solid win for Remain.
It wasn't. I placed big bets on Leave after it came in.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
B
Not good enough for you?
Seabeaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
lol. Given you're such a fan of my remarks you'll know that I was LEAVE from beginning to end of the campaign. I used to give my
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be undersld dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
The Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
Many, many old (and not so old) Colonel Blimps voted Remain.
But yes, good analogy. A bit crap. Crapper than it would otherwise have been.
You don't think the EU is itself really quite crap then? Really really really quite fucking crap. Hint: ask the Greeks or the Italians or the Portuguese.
Hmm, ocountry.
It's why we ignore the G20 protests. Great passion, not quite thought it through, though.
Fair enough. Let's agree to disagree. You are one of the less annoying PB Remainians. It's the ones who tell me I'm a racist and a xenophobe for voting LEAVE and that the only moral course was voting REMAIN etc etc, that really get my insult-o-goat.
Grr.
But it's a lovely evening, and I know what you mean about warming over tired arguments. Let's just agree we are once again a sovereign nation, with no one to blame - or congratulate - but ourselves. And for that some of us would like to REJOICE.
I'm off for a walk up Primrose Hill, as the summer ebbs...
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
It was very amusing to watch Betfair that night, as the same dumb-fucks who had told us with such certainty we would be doomed if we voted to Leave piled in to back Remain with every result that was a supposed "win" for Remain. Those of us in the know realised that those self-same results were telling us Remain was falling well short of where they needed to be in those declarations and it was Leave's to lose. All on the back of AndyJ's spreadsheet. The City should have forgotten private polling and bought AndyJ's spreadsheet - and kept it secret! They would have made a killing.
As I've said before, the smartest guys weren't in the Remain room.
I was a Remainer. Nonetheless I consistently posted that the value was in Leave. I made about £600 that night and by 0200 it was free money at near evens.
Don't mistake political opinions for betting ones!
And I agree AndyJS is a star. I owe him at least a pint if we ever meet up!
It was very amusing to watch Betfair that night, as the same dumb-fucks who had told us with such certainty we would be doomed if we voted to Leave piled in to back Remain with every result that was a supposed "win" for Remain. Those of us in the know realised that those self-same results were telling us Remain was falling well short of where they needed to be in those declarations and it was Leave's to lose. All on the back of AndyJ's spreadsheet. The City should have forgotten private polling and bought AndyJ's spreadsheet - and kept it secret! They would have made a killing.
As I've said before, the smartest guys weren't in the Remain room.
Don't you think people were betting on Remain because they thought Remain would win, not because they wanted Remain to win?
Mr. T, I remember the first hour after polls closed. Rumours of a 10 point Remain victory. Financial duffers who thought their exit polls meant we'd stay in and it was all but nailed on [there was no official exit poll because it was simply too difficult to be accurate].
And then the doubt, and some genuine uncertainty. I went to bed then, and awoke to a significant surprise.
I stayed with PB all night, intending only to wait until the Remain win was verified.
The spreadsheet @AndyJS (?) had prepared was invaluable - in spite of the fluctuating fortunes of the way the results came in, we were able to gauge what they meant for Remain/Leave.
And not-so-gradually, resignation turned into satisfaction that at least it wasn't a runaway victory for Remain, and on into amazed hope that maybe, just maybe ....
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
I am pretty sure of this. It's going to take masses of time, money and effort to end up in a place that is somewhat worse than where we started and where would otherwise be. The government obviously can't admit to anything other than success, so that's what it will be:
Spin.
You are certainly right that HMG will spin it as a success come what may. The trouble is, we'll never be able to measure the delta between what is and what would have been. That will always be supposition.
Miss Cyclefree, quite (must admit I'd never heard of that chap before now).
The economy does matter, but making a purely economic argument, regardless of social or cultural or political impact, reduces the people to slaves selling themselves to the highest bidder. The economy often is the one crucial argument for a decision, but it isn't always so.
Remain even buggered that up with their overblown fear-mongering, which then led people to discount more credible claims that they made.
Looking to the future, and thinking of the burka ban polling, if UKIP can seize that sort of territory, they could do handily, especially if facing an open borders friend of Hamas.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
Sean, the 'wisdom of crowds' holds for issues that are subject to the law of large numbers. AFAIK, it does not hold for other items.
It certainly does hold in European politics. Crowds - i.e. voters - tried to stop the EU's mad push to integration again and again, by voting against Nice, Maastricht and the Lisbon Treaty (aka the Constitution). Each time the EU bullied them into changing their minds, or - incredibly - simply ignored their wishes, and smuggled the Treaties past them, against their expressed democratic will. Appalling.
If the wisdom of the crowds had prevailed the EU would not have ended up with the disaster of the euro, and the horrible fracture of Brexit, to name but two
When it comes to the EU, one should ALWAYS listen to the crowds - to the voters - most of all.
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
It was very amusing to watch Betfair that night, as the same dumb-fucks who had told us with such certainty we would be doomed if we voted to Leave piled in to back Remain with every result that was a supposed "win" for Remain. Those of us in the know realised that those self-same results were telling us Remain was falling well short of where they needed to be in those declarations and it was Leave's to lose. All on the back of AndyJ's spreadsheet. The City should have forgotten private polling and bought AndyJ's spreadsheet - and kept it secret! They would have made a killing.
As I've said before, the smartest guys weren't in the Remain room.
I was a Remainer. Nonetheless I consistently posted that the value was in Leave. I made about £600 that night and by 0200 it was free money at near evens.
Don't mistake political opinions for betting ones!
And I agree AndyJS is a star. I owe him at least a pint if we ever meet up!
I wish I'd had the courage of my convictions to bet on that night, it was quite clear from Andy's spreadsheet for hours that Leave was winning, but I refused to take out my card as I don't gamble. By the time it was evens it wasn't really gambling, we knew the answer. Oh well.
And then we had a week or two of continuing political drama, as the Conservatives showed Labour how to do a leadership election (and Gove's suicide bombing of Boris), and the PLP finally put someone [who is crap] up against Corbyn.
"Brexit is a cry for meaning in a world overrun with research and information. It is a plea for morality in a time when we’re governed by sums and maths. As Charles Leadbeater put it, Brexit was about “restoring a semblance of meaning to people’s lives”; it was a “vote for something more than money — for pride, belonging, community, identity, a sense of ‘home’”."
Spot on. Although he should have added "and a sense of at least a modicum of control over their own destiny"
Seamus Heaney put it very well in a lecture he gave a few months before he died.
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Our politicians forgot that. There is more to life than economics.
The politicians who deserve to prosper are those who remember that nations are more than simply a random collection of people in one geographical area, all of them interchangeable, simply breathing widgets.
The concept of "home", of "our home" is a very powerful and deep rooted one. It is worthwhile. And it is one which politicians mess with at their peril.
Of course, there are plenty of politicians who believe precisely what you describe: that nation states are outdated and redundant, people are just economic units and overall economic prosperity is all that matters.
I feel in a bit of a dilemma at the moment , and would be interested in any views as to how to proceed. Unlike last year - when I did pay £3 to register as a supporter - I have no vote at all in this year's Labour leadership election.However, I do have a friend who does have a vote as a result of being a member of a trade union. He has voted for Corbyn despite the fact that at General Elections he votes Green if he votes at all! My question is - Should I contact the Labour Compliance Unit with a view to getting his vote set aside?
This follows on really from Nick Palmer's header the other day.
Supposing Corbyn wins. Are we really going to see MPs queuing up to mend the fences? There was the Co-operative party idea, and people may split of course. Surely a continued strain is inevitable. Would Owen Smith serve? I can't see it.
Corbyn is still going to be left with at best a depopulated shadow-cabinet, and at worst McDonnell and Abbott. Ah sorry no - at worst McDonnell, Abbott and Burgon (I admit I am taking this opportunity to try to upset TSE's bet!)
Anyway, during the summer the fact that there are all these empty seats has been no problem, but now it will start to hurt. Perhaps Corbyn will just be so undermined by this he'll go anyway, no matter the result.
I think NP's thread was overly optimistic about Corbyn's long term prospects.
(By the way I'm assuming that he hasn't filled any of the shadow cabinet spots?)
I wonder how the shadow chief secretary to the treasury got on in her GCSEs?
PS For shadow cabinet I should have said shadow government or some such - I know its the junior roles that are unfilled.
With the traditional start of the presidential campaign - Labor Day - not with us yet, there is time to explore another campaign - that of 30oz stainless steel tumblers. If you spend your days outside in 95 degree heat with 90% humidity, you need a way to keep your drink cool.
There are 3 major entrants in this 30 oz arena - Yeti ($37), RTIC ($17) and Ozark Trail ($14.50, $9.74 at Walmart).
They look identical (except for the brand name stamped into the base), and the lids from all brands are interchangeable.
I have an RTIC and a couple of Ozarks, and I can fill them half full with ice, top off with chilled water, put on the transparent plastic top, and after 6 hours, with the outside warm to the touch, the ice is still there even after a couple of water top ups. They are quite remarkable.
Here is a comparison of the 20 oz tumblers, which only a wussie would use.
At least he's not typing: "I couldn't get a seat on this limo, and was forced to stand. If we were to nationalise the government's car service then poor commuters such as myself might get a seat."
Then, later, CCTV shows the carriage rapidly emptying as he walks through ...
Most of us on this site took our positions early on and, right or wrong as we may eventually prove to be, we advanced our case in good faith.
You Brexit cause.
I do not remember me telling a pollster during the campaign that I was REMAIN, probably because I never did that (unless it was some obvious joke). If you can find it I'll buy you a bottle of bubbles, if you can't you, Sir, are a liar.
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
February.
I was the last person to vote in our polling station. My train home was delayed and got into the station at 9.47 pm. I had to break every driving law going to make it on time. Needn't have bothered.
I did a straight 36 hour stretch without sleep and wrote this for our magazine blog on the afternoon of 24th June, having been awake for over 30 hours. I was quite pleased with myself.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
You sat on the fence .
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
.
Newcastle. Should have been a solid win for Remain.
It wasn't. I placed big bets on Leave after it came in.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Most of the people on here are not knowledgeable about economics. About three people are and another thirty-odd think they are because they have read a few bits and pieces somewhere and think they understand them.
And that's the problem. How many people 'really' understand all the technical aspects and detailed ins and outs of any 'issue'? Very few indeed, and even among those who do there may not be a consensus as to the right path to take.
So even restricting the franchise to a handful of people would make little sense, and trying to differentiate between people who 'understand' 5% of the issue and those who 'understand' 20% makes no sense either - both sets are still fundamentally not 'well informed'.
That is even assuming we should treat an issue like Brexit in such a manner. Which we should not. It was not merely a technical discussion, but a much more fundamental question about how we are to be governed - a point on which all the people have a right to an equal voice.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
Sean, the 'wisdom of crowds' holds for issues that are subject to the law of large numbers. AFAIK, it does not hold for other items.
It certainly does hold in European politics. Crowds - i.e. voters - tried to stop the EU's mad push to integration again and again, by voting against Nice, Maastricht and the Lisbon Treaty (aka the Constitution). Each time the EU bullied them into changing their minds, or - incredibly - simply ignored their wishes, and smuggled the Treaties past them, against their expressed democratic will. Appalling.
If the wisdom of the crowds had prevailed the EU would not have ended up with the disaster of the euro, and the horrible fracture of Brexit, to name but two
When it comes to the EU, one should ALWAYS listen to the crowds - to the voters - most of all.
I'd agree with all that. I am not sure the EU has got the memo yet, though.
Mr. Royale, politicians who believe that are off their heads.
Cultural identity cannot be destroyed by the wet dreams of ideologically driven bureaucrats who think they're recreating the Roman Empire.
Trying to force the issue only creates conflict, and trying to ignore the will of the people creates resentment. Forcing nations only works if you've got a strong army and are willing to use it, then, in the peace, have a sensible policy, as per the Romans (which essentially amounted to pay taxes and don't rebel, and we're fine).
Mr. Thompson, I didn't bet on anything either, so you're not the only one.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Crowds are *usually* wiser than experts, if the crowds are big enough. This is an established psychological fact.
We at pb should know this more than most. The crowds were telling us that LEAVE was going to win - in terms of the numbers of bets on LEAVE by the end. But we, the "experts", ignored them. Me incluced. I thought REMAIN would do it.
The thing that the politicians should think about is, why with so much going for the Remain side, did Leave win? I'd argue that the Leave campaign was better than Remain's, and perhaps that was partly because Remain were selling a rubbish deal.
But without a doubt, Leave won partly because enough of the population thought they had nothing to lose. The politicians on both sides of the debate need to think carefully about why that was and what it could mean in the future.
Remain threw away a massive lead in the months leading up to the vote.
The more I think about the more i think of similarities to the No campaign in the sindyref. There, a highly negative campaign steadily eroded a sizeable unionist lead in the many months leading up to the vote. But, there was enough emotional attachment amongst enough Scots to carry the vote for the Union on the day, but I don't think the campaign helped at all. Without it, I think Yes would have won.
In the case of the EU, there was no such attachment.
(The mistakes Remain made were also similar to those of Yes2AV which also sneered and snobbed its way to a crushing defeat)
To be honest it was obvious from the first announcement.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
It was @AndyJS all the way. It was a monumentally brilliant work.
Well at least there is something we can all agree on.
Andy's hard work meant that PB probably had a better view of what the results coming in meant than anywhere else. Rod did some sterling work in estimating up-to-date odds from the results too.
With the traditional start of the presidential campaign - Labor Day - not with us yet, there is time to explore another campaign - that of 30oz stainless steel tumblers. If you spend your days outside in 95 degree heat with 90% humidity, you need a way to keep your drink cool.
There are 3 major entrants in this 30 oz arena - Yeti ($37), RTIC ($17) and Ozark Trail ($14.50, $9.74 at Walmart.
They look identical (except for the brand name stamped into the base), and the lids from all brands are interchangeable.
I have an RTIC and a couple of Ozarks, and I can fill them half full with ice, top off with chilled water, put on the transparent plastic top, and after 6 hours, with the outside warm to the touch, the ice is still there even after a couple of water top ups. They are quite remarkable.
Here is a comparison of the 20 oz tumblers, which only a wussie would use.
I think Mythbusters have already found the way, just get a small container (plastic or otherwise) and fill it with ice cubes and salt and put your beer can in it.
I feel in a bit of a dilemma at the moment , and would be interested in any views as to how to proceed. Unlike last year - when I did pay £3 to register as a supporter - I have no vote at all in this year's Labour leadership election.However, I do have a friend who does have a vote as a result of being a member of a trade union. He has voted for Corbyn despite the fact that at General Elections he votes Green if he votes at all! My question is - Should I contact the Labour Compliance Unit with a view to getting his vote set aside?
“If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.” (EM Forster)
Also, from a statistical point if view, it is incredibly unlikely that one vote either way will make any difference to the result (one in a few hundred thousand)..
I feel in a bit of a dilemma at the moment , and would be interested in any views as to how to proceed. Unlike last year - when I did pay £3 to register as a supporter - I have no vote at all in this year's Labour leadership election.However, I do have a friend who does have a vote as a result of being a member of a trade union. He has voted for Corbyn despite the fact that at General Elections he votes Green if he votes at all! My question is - Should I contact the Labour Compliance Unit with a view to getting his vote set aside?
Miss Cyclefree, quite (must admit I'd never heard of that chap before now).
The economy does matter, but making a purely economic argument, regardless of social or cultural or political impact, reduces the people to slaves selling themselves to the highest bidder. The economy often is the one crucial argument for a decision, but it isn't always so.
Remain even buggered that up with their overblown fear-mongering, which then led people to discount more credible claims that they made.
Looking to the future, and thinking of the burka ban polling, if UKIP can seize that sort of territory, they could do handily, especially if facing an open borders friend of Hamas.
Mr Dancer, I'd argue that, in a generally affluent society where the basic physiological needs of food, shelter and health are met, economic factors matter far less than higher order psychological factors such as respect, control and purpose. I'd wager that many of those (particularly Labour supporters) who voted Out felt disrespected and helpless.
Mr. Royale, politicians who believe that are off their heads.
Cultural identity cannot be destroyed by the wet dreams of ideologically driven bureaucrats who think they're recreating the Roman Empire.
Trying to force the issue only creates conflict, and trying to ignore the will of the people creates resentment. Forcing nations only works if you've got a strong army and are willing to use it, then, in the peace, have a sensible policy, as per the Romans (which essentially amounted to pay taxes and don't rebel, and we're fine).
Mr. Thompson, I didn't bet on anything either, so you're not the only one.
To be honest, a few of my well-educated middle-class prosperous friends (who voted Remain) are the same.
I have had one or two fairly fruity debates with them on the subject.
Their lives seem to have become so atomised and international they simply no longer care about nations, just networks.
We could do with odds on Wollaston defecting to the Lib Dems.
Worth noting her seat is quite small - 65,472 - so that will have some boundary changes.
But there is no more Narnia to add to her seat - wherever you add it from, it comes from a current Tory seat.
Do you have a feel for how many Tories down your way are facing the chop? Anyone coming up for retirement?
We have to see how the Cornish-Devon seat pans out and how Plymouth gets divided up. I wondered about Gary Streeter retiring, but he's a fair bit younger than he looks!
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
B
Not good enough for you?
Seabeaten to death for speaking Polish in public - give you any right to pose as some sort of messiah for the Brexit cause.
lol. Given you're such a fan of my remarks you'll know that I was LEAVE from beginning to end of the campaign. I used to give my
The rest of your post: meh
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Now, now, Sean. We don't need to rub it in. It's becoming clear that the Remainers are not just on the wrong side of the vote, they're on the wrong side of history, as well.
They won't change. Like old, moustachioed Colonels snorting into their G&Ts, deploring the loss of Empire, they'll continue to insist to anyone who'll listen that it was all a ghastly error.
We need to be undersld dears.
For someone so supposedly patriotic you pick a curious example of soldiers who will have fought for their country to mock.
The Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
Many, many old (and not so old) Colonel Blimps voted Remain.
But yes, good analogy. A bit crap. Crapper than it would otherwise have been.
You don't think the EU is itself really quite crap then? Really really really quite fucking crap. Hint: ask the Greeks or the Italians or the Portuguese.
Hmm, ok Sean. We really can rehearse the arguments we had pre-June 23rd about the pros and cons, but I don't think anyone including me has the stomach for it.
The Greeks bent over backwards to stay in. Oh yes, I know, they voted against this, and then the government only went and did that, and perhaps you should consider why the government did ignore the protests on the street and take a course of action they thought would be under the circumstances the least bad for the country.
It's why we ignore the G20 protests. Great passion, not quite thought it through, though.
Do you not see a difference between a protest and a democratic vote?
I feel in a bit of a dilemma at the moment , and would be interested in any views as to how to proceed. Unlike last year - when I did pay £3 to register as a supporter - I have no vote at all in this year's Labour leadership election.However, I do have a friend who does have a vote as a result of being a member of a trade union. He has voted for Corbyn despite the fact that at General Elections he votes Green if he votes at all! My question is - Should I contact the Labour Compliance Unit with a view to getting his vote set aside?
“If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.” (EM Forster)
Also, from a statistical point if view, it is incredibly unlikely that one vote either way will make any difference to the result (one in a few hundred thousand)..
My view is that as a Green voter he had no more right to vote in an internal Labour Party election than would a Tory voter.
Mr. Royale, indeed. For some people, they genuinely associate themselves with a class or lifestyle [I mean neither in a derogatory sense] than with a nation. The internet and cheap travel has helped to foster this sort of thing.
Mr. T, interesting use of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. It may simply have been a function of the voting system creating frustration amongst those who felt their votes didn't matter and/or the referendum having a clear In/Out line and their realisation every vote counted equally.
I agree with you. And those Labour voters may be up for grabs next time.
With the traditional start of the presidential campaign - Labor Day - not with us yet, there is time to explore another campaign - that of 30oz stainless steel tumblers. If you spend your days outside in 95 degree heat with 90% humidity, you need a way to keep your drink cool.
There are 3 major entrants in this 30 oz arena - Yeti ($37), RTIC ($17) and Ozark Trail ($14.50, $9.74 at Walmart.
They look identical (except for the brand name stamped into the base), and the lids from all brands are interchangeable.
I have an RTIC and a couple of Ozarks, and I can fill them half full with ice, top off with chilled water, put on the transparent plastic top, and after 6 hours, with the outside warm to the touch, the ice is still there even after a couple of water top ups. They are quite remarkable.
Here is a comparison of the 20 oz tumblers, which only a wussie would use.
I think Mythbusters have already found the way, just get a small container (plastic or otherwise) and fill it with ice cubes and salt and put your beer can in it.
It doesn't work for carbonated drinks or beer Speedy - they go flat. I understand why you wouldn't know that
Miss Cyclefree, quite (must admit I'd never heard of that chap before now).
The economy does matter, but making a purely economic argument, regardless of social or cultural or political impact, reduces the people to slaves selling themselves to the highest bidder. The economy often is the one crucial argument for a decision, but it isn't always so.
Remain even buggered that up with their overblown fear-mongering, which then led people to discount more credible claims that they made.
Looking to the future, and thinking of the burka ban polling, if UKIP can seize that sort of territory, they could do handily, especially if facing an open borders friend of Hamas.
Mr Dancer, I'd argue that, in a generally affluent society where the basic physiological needs of food, shelter and health are met, economic factors matter far less than higher order psychological factors such as respect, control and purpose. I'd wager that many of those (particularly Labour supporters) who voted Out felt disrespected and helpless.
And the fact that such people are being given goodies by the EU does not make them feel more warmly inclined to it. If anything people dislike being made to feel the object of charity, made to feel grateful rather than feeling able to make their own decisions about their lives. That's why, in part, the "Take Control" meme of the Leave campaign was so powerful.
One reason perhaps why areas such as Wales - the recipient of so much EU largesse - voted Leave.
A sweet young thing asked me what I had voted, in my Primrose Hill booth, I told her LEAVE, and then she told me she was doing an exit poll (possibly for City banks)
On the way out I was interviewed by German radio. It was a nice day, if I remember correctly.
Here's a question: do pb-ers recall the moment they realised LEAVE was winning? I fell asleep - drunk - at midnight, and woke at about 2 or 3am, after the Sunderland result, and people frantically tweeting me that LEAVE could do it. Quite a moment.
I had a good feeling about Leave when Newcastle declared.
I feel in a bit of a dilemma at the moment , and would be interested in any views as to how to proceed. Unlike last year - when I did pay £3 to register as a supporter - I have no vote at all in this year's Labour leadership election.However, I do have a friend who does have a vote as a result of being a member of a trade union. He has voted for Corbyn despite the fact that at General Elections he votes Green if he votes at all! My question is - Should I contact the Labour Compliance Unit with a view to getting his vote set aside?
“If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.” (EM Forster)
Also, from a statistical point if view, it is incredibly unlikely that one vote either way will make any difference to the result (one in a few hundred thousand)..
My view is that as a Green voter he had no more right to vote in an internal Labour Party election than would a Tory voter.
Trade Unionists have the right to vote and aren't restricted in their membership to any other parties are they?
London News reporting that the local residents and workers in Harlow had been on at the Police for ages about youths harrasing people (of all backgrounds) in the area where that Polish man was murdered.
A brilliant non-conformist 'up the revolution, stuff the establishment' rant....but without one single argument as to why Britain's leaving the EU might be a sensible thing to do.
Because it is the moral thing to do - to leave this horrible, undemocratic nightmare, designed by and for smug, contemptuous elites - and thereby sets a noble example to the rest of the world.
Not good enough for you?
You sat on the fence .
We won. You lost. Suck it all up.
Weren't you polled in the street by a rather lovely pollster?
.
Newcastle. Should have been a solid win for Remain.
It wasn't. I placed big bets on Leave after it came in.
Said it before; the global economy passeth understanding. Nobody knows what will happen, but plenty of people are paid very handsomely to pretend they do.
Most of the folk on here are quite knowledgeable about economics, current affairs and whatever their own specialities might be. But very few (a polite way of saying 'none') of us were truly qualified to vote in any kind of expert capacity, and those that think differently are deluding themselves.
Just because we can spell EFTA, doesn't mean we grok the long term consequences of Brexit, even if we're superior to Ethel Scroggins of Burnley who thinks its a chilblain cream.
Most of the people on here are not knowledgeable about economics. About three people are and another thirty-odd think they are because they have read a few bits and pieces somewhere and think they understand them.
Meow!
I'd be interested in your list of three.
To make such a judgment, I presume you include yourself in the triumvirate. I can think of one person who clearly belongs on that list, and several other candidates, but to round up the 3 there can only be two others.
I would not pretend to be in such exalted company but I do think you are excessively dismissive of those with more than a passing knowledge of economics.
With the traditional start of the presidential campaign - Labor Day - not with us yet, there is time to explore another campaign - that of 30oz stainless steel tumblers. If you spend your days outside in 95 degree heat with 90% humidity, you need a way to keep your drink cool.
There are 3 major entrants in this 30 oz arena - Yeti ($37), RTIC ($17) and Ozark Trail ($14.50, $9.74 at Walmart.
They look identical (except for the brand name stamped into the base), and the lids from all brands are interchangeable.
I have an RTIC and a couple of Ozarks, and I can fill them half full with ice, top off with chilled water, put on the transparent plastic top, and after 6 hours, with the outside warm to the touch, the ice is still there even after a couple of water top ups. They are quite remarkable.
Here is a comparison of the 20 oz tumblers, which only a wussie would use.
I think Mythbusters have already found the way, just get a small container (plastic or otherwise) and fill it with ice cubes and salt and put your beer can in it.
It doesn't work for carbonated drinks or beer Speedy - they go flat. I understand why you wouldn't know that
If you've managed to observe beer going flat in such circumstances you've not understood the concept of beer
Comments
But not to worry, SeanT will change his mind again. He changes his mind more often than his underpants and his political opinions have both the consistency and value of cold wank in custard.
Unfortunately for him, yesterday in arizona he didn't.
And then the doubt, and some genuine uncertainty. I went to bed then, and awoke to a significant surprise.
For a long time I was concerned that my gut instinct urging 'Leave' was just childish Yah-boo to the establishment. However, the debate on here convinced me that there was at least as much of a solid case in favour of Leave as of Remain, so I decided to go with gut instinct.
AndyJS' spreadsheet was invaluable that evening. He, not Osbo, deserves that Companion of Honour.
I was, sadly, too squeamish to go balls deep. But did manage my first 4 figure political betting win - about 20 times what I made on the GE. Tithed my winnings to the site infrastructure as a way of thanks for the great company that evening.
Should have, in the words of Robert, gambled like a mad man on seeing that first result.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Mortimer, indeed. The analysis on pb.com was streets ahead of the broadcast media. The modelling was excellent.
I don't see it either. The man failed to achieve any of his targets but claimed the credit for a bunch of stuff that were nothing to do with him. If he had spent less time impersonating Gordon Brown and more time actually thinking about his day job then he might not be on the back benches.
What talent that he has that any honest company would want to pay for is beyond me. So I expect Goldman Sachs or J.P.Morgan or the like will bung him huge chunks of money.
P.S. Could be a pointer for Mrs. Free and her gang. Who shall we really investigate next? Well the company the employs Osborne. Except, of course, they are snowed under with work anyway. The City is that corrupt these days.
(Yes.)
I get the feeling that RCSs driver is economic and mine is primarily about sovereignty ie wishing the elected Westminster Government to make our laws not unelected bureacrats overseas.
While the EU immigration issue is a symptom of not having sovereignty in this area as it is an EU competence, I find a bit of a boring subject (probably because it dosent affect me a great deal personally) and can't get very worked up with it.
Hence I'm on record as being in favour of EEA/EFTA with just existing EFTA permitted limitations of freedom of movement for fear of damaging the economy with a hard exit (and reviewing whther EEA is still worth it 10 years after leaving once we have trade deals in place with RoW)
We seem to be heading for a hard exit though, which suggests that the Tories are worried about losing marginals to a resurgent UKIP if freedom of movement is not canned.
It wasn't until about 3am that I became convinced - a BBC reporter claiming Birmingham was going strongly for Remain earlier was totally undone. Sunderland was a great result.
If you haven't seen it - the profile of the local guy who made it such a race is rather amusing.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/faster-than-a-speeding-ballot?utm_term=.cb7KDY7o8#.vuBX60lAb
It is far to early to make a call on the success/failure of Brexit. Most likely it will be just a bit crap, like Ed Miliband, rather than totally crap like Jezza.
What a terrible person
But yes, good analogy. A bit crap. Crapper than it would otherwise have been.
I was just waiting for some results outside the N.E. to be sure.
I was the last person to vote in our polling station. My train home was delayed and got into the station at 9.47 pm. I had to break every driving law going to make it on time. Needn't have bothered.
I did a straight 36 hour stretch without sleep and wrote this for our magazine blog on the afternoon of 24th June, having been awake for over 30 hours. I was quite pleased with myself.
http://www.iam-media.com/Blog/Detail.aspx?g=ec6d2475-fbba-42ee-bf5d-9149044a1c7a
Spin.
But without a doubt, Leave won partly because enough of the population thought they had nothing to lose. The politicians on both sides of the debate need to think carefully about why that was and what it could mean in the future.
[DRAMATIS PERSONAE: Remoan, a man who is WRONG about ALL THINGS. Reality an EVERYEMAN]
Remoan: DOOM IS COMING
Reality: Actually it's fine
Remoan: AH, BUT WE NEVER SAID THAT THERE WOULD BE A RECESSION
Reality: Actually you did, here
Remoan: OKAY BUT WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD BE IMMEDIATELY AF...
Reality: Yes, you did. Right here.
Remoan: NO WE DIDN'T PHONY WAR WE DON'T HAVE BREXIT YET THEN YOU'LL SEE THEN YOU'LL BE FORCED TO EAT YOUR OWN CHILDREN TO SURVIVE THE DOOM IS COMING JUST WAIT AND SEE!!!!
[EXEUNT]
Good effort sir. I was on a stag do the following day - 3 hours sleep, bought a new mac and then off to Rutland. Where I was the only Leaver amongst a group of 15.
They quietened down after I brought out the magnum of bolly, paid for by betfair wins....
15/1 at 10pm on Thursday 23rd. 15 TO BLOODY ONE!
And boxes of liquorice sticks. Yummy.
Trump has to remember that the General Electorate responds like a female, you woo it soflty soflty not screamy screamy.
Maybe Mr Morris or Mr T could oblige?!
I did genuinely post that a few times [albeit with the escape clause that they were laughing when they said it].
As I've said before, the smartest guys weren't in the Remain room.
The Greeks bent over backwards to stay in. Oh yes, I know, they voted against this, and then the government only went and did that, and perhaps you should consider why the government did ignore the protests on the street and take a course of action they thought would be under the circumstances the least bad for the country.
It's why we ignore the G20 protests. Great passion, not quite thought it through, though.
Worth noting her seat is quite small - 65,472 - so that will have some boundary changes.
'The thing that the politicians should think about is, why with so much going for the Remain side, did Leave win? I'd argue that the Leave campaign was better than Remain's, and perhaps that was partly because Remain were selling a rubbish deal.'
Cameron got a crap deal and Remain needed to sell the EU, both were big fails.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cook-condemns-apple-11bn-tax-ruling-as-political-crap-mxwfc7c02
"...the company will repatriate billions of dollars to the US next year"
Trump: 180 degrees is for PUSSIES! I'm gonna go the full 360!
The reason why CNN is now synonymous with bad journalism is because it's 100% commentary and 0% news, they have been transformed into the Sunday Sport of TV.
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Our politicians forgot that. There is more to life than economics.
The politicians who deserve to prosper are those who remember that nations are more than simply a random collection of people in one geographical area, all of them interchangeable, simply breathing widgets.
The concept of "home", of "our home" is a very powerful and deep rooted one. It is worthwhile. And it is one which politicians mess with at their peril.
It wasn't. I placed big bets on Leave after it came in.
Don't mistake political opinions for betting ones!
And I agree AndyJS is a star. I owe him at least a pint if we ever meet up!
Isn't that a rather crucial distinction?
https://twitter.com/eyespymp/status/771369582334443520
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BgJEXQkjNQ
(*) Rapid, Unscheduled Disassembly.
The spreadsheet @AndyJS (?) had prepared was invaluable - in spite of the fluctuating fortunes of the way the results came in, we were able to gauge what they meant for Remain/Leave.
And not-so-gradually, resignation turned into satisfaction that at least it wasn't a runaway victory for Remain, and on into amazed hope that maybe, just maybe ....
But I don't remember at what hour it was certain.
A night to remember, indeed.
You are certainly right that HMG will spin it as a success come what may. The trouble is, we'll never be able to measure the delta between what is and what would have been. That will always be supposition.
The economy does matter, but making a purely economic argument, regardless of social or cultural or political impact, reduces the people to slaves selling themselves to the highest bidder. The economy often is the one crucial argument for a decision, but it isn't always so.
Remain even buggered that up with their overblown fear-mongering, which then led people to discount more credible claims that they made.
Looking to the future, and thinking of the burka ban polling, if UKIP can seize that sort of territory, they could do handily, especially if facing an open borders friend of Hamas.
Why should they for the most unpopular chancellor in recent history ?
And then we had a week or two of continuing political drama, as the Conservatives showed Labour how to do a leadership election (and Gove's suicide bombing of Boris), and the PLP finally put someone [who is crap] up against Corbyn.
I hope the lesson is learnt but we shall see.
Unlike last year - when I did pay £3 to register as a supporter - I have no vote at all in this year's Labour leadership election.However, I do have a friend who does have a vote as a result of being a member of a trade union. He has voted for Corbyn despite the fact that at General Elections he votes Green if he votes at all! My question is - Should I contact the Labour Compliance Unit with a view to getting his vote set aside?
Supposing Corbyn wins. Are we really going to see MPs queuing up to mend the fences? There was the Co-operative party idea, and people may split of course. Surely a continued strain is inevitable. Would Owen Smith serve? I can't see it.
Corbyn is still going to be left with at best a depopulated shadow-cabinet, and at worst McDonnell and Abbott. Ah sorry no - at worst McDonnell, Abbott and Burgon (I admit I am taking this opportunity to try to upset TSE's bet!)
Anyway, during the summer the fact that there are all these empty seats has been no problem, but now it will start to hurt. Perhaps Corbyn will just be so undermined by this he'll go anyway, no matter the result.
I think NP's thread was overly optimistic about Corbyn's long term prospects.
(By the way I'm assuming that he hasn't filled any of the shadow cabinet spots?)
I wonder how the shadow chief secretary to the treasury got on in her GCSEs?
PS For shadow cabinet I should have said shadow government or some such - I know its the junior roles that are unfilled.
There are 3 major entrants in this 30 oz arena - Yeti ($37), RTIC ($17) and Ozark Trail ($14.50, $9.74 at Walmart).
They look identical (except for the brand name stamped into the base), and the lids from all brands are interchangeable.
I have an RTIC and a couple of Ozarks, and I can fill them half full with ice, top off with chilled water, put on the transparent plastic top, and after 6 hours, with the outside warm to the touch, the ice is still there even after a couple of water top ups. They are quite remarkable.
Here is a comparison of the 20 oz tumblers, which only a wussie would use.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8gmT9tWv6g
Then, later, CCTV shows the carriage rapidly emptying as he walks through ...
And that's the problem. How many people 'really' understand all the technical aspects and detailed ins and outs of any 'issue'? Very few indeed, and even among those who do there may not be a consensus as to the right path to take.
So even restricting the franchise to a handful of people would make little sense, and trying to differentiate between people who 'understand' 5% of the issue and those who 'understand' 20% makes no sense either - both sets are still fundamentally not 'well informed'.
That is even assuming we should treat an issue like Brexit in such a manner. Which we should not. It was not merely a technical discussion, but a much more fundamental question about how we are to be governed - a point on which all the people have a right to an equal voice.
Apple just makes me more chuffed we are buggering off.
Cultural identity cannot be destroyed by the wet dreams of ideologically driven bureaucrats who think they're recreating the Roman Empire.
Trying to force the issue only creates conflict, and trying to ignore the will of the people creates resentment. Forcing nations only works if you've got a strong army and are willing to use it, then, in the peace, have a sensible policy, as per the Romans (which essentially amounted to pay taxes and don't rebel, and we're fine).
Mr. Thompson, I didn't bet on anything either, so you're not the only one.
Allegedly.
You can see the payload fall intact to the ground, and a smaller secondary explosion as its fuel goes bang.
The more I think about the more i think of similarities to the No campaign in the sindyref. There, a highly negative campaign steadily eroded a sizeable unionist lead in the many months leading up to the vote. But, there was enough emotional attachment amongst enough Scots to carry the vote for the Union on the day, but I don't think the campaign helped at all. Without it, I think Yes would have won.
In the case of the EU, there was no such attachment.
(The mistakes Remain made were also similar to those of Yes2AV which also sneered and snobbed its way to a crushing defeat)
Andy's hard work meant that PB probably had a better view of what the results coming in meant than anywhere else. Rod did some sterling work in estimating up-to-date odds from the results too.
The mainstream media was miles behind.
Also, from a statistical point if view, it is incredibly unlikely that one vote either way will make any difference to the result (one in a few hundred thousand)..
Mr Dancer, I'd argue that, in a generally affluent society where the basic physiological needs of food, shelter and health are met, economic factors matter far less than higher order psychological factors such as respect, control and purpose. I'd wager that many of those (particularly Labour supporters) who voted Out felt disrespected and helpless.
I have had one or two fairly fruity debates with them on the subject.
Their lives seem to have become so atomised and international they simply no longer care about nations, just networks.
Mr. T, interesting use of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. It may simply have been a function of the voting system creating frustration amongst those who felt their votes didn't matter and/or the referendum having a clear In/Out line and their realisation every vote counted equally.
I agree with you. And those Labour voters may be up for grabs next time.
One reason perhaps why areas such as Wales - the recipient of so much EU largesse - voted Leave.
I'd be interested in your list of three.
To make such a judgment, I presume you include yourself in the triumvirate. I can think of one person who clearly belongs on that list, and several other candidates, but to round up the 3 there can only be two others.
I would not pretend to be in such exalted company but I do think you are excessively dismissive of those with more than a passing knowledge of economics.