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edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » George Osborne, the modern day Winston Churchill?

We’ve been here before, a charismatic former Tory Chancellor who warned the country and Tory party against a particular course of action, his counsel was ignored, he was exiled to the backbenches whilst his warnings initially proved to be incorrect.

Read the full story here


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  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    First!

    Wasn't Churchill exiled to the backbenches in the Twenties, more than 5 years before Nazis and rearmament became an issue?

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    edited September 2016
    LOL

    Would be like turning to Dr Shipman to clear up your Grandmas cough.

  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    Second like TeamGB

    Bugger
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    A far fetched comparison. QTWTAIN, for sure.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    TSE's Osborne fetish continues... :roll_eyes:
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    If we were lying, mad or blind.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Like Don Brind and his weird Owen Smith obsession, Eagles takes us to another outlandish, overblown and ultimately wrong conclusion.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    I'm going to go with a near perfect "no".
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    FPT:
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    geoffw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Couple of interesting articles on ConHome:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/09/now-its-remain-that-doesnt-know-what-it-wants.html

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/09/daniel-hannan-repeat-after-me-single-market-membership-and-single-market-access-are-not-the-same-thing.html

    Thanks. Hannan's article is very good.
    p.s. (edit) particularly on "passporting".
    Actually, he seems to be confused on 'passporting', which is not the same as 'equivalence'.
    No he's not, he explicitly deals with passporting.

    Last month, the EU’s regulator recommended that passporting rights be extended to firms regulated in Australia, Canada, the Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Japan, Jersey, Switzerland and the United States. Now remember that, on the day Brexit takes effect, Britain won’t just have equivalent regulation to the EU; it will have identical regulation. The idea that the Cayman Islands might enjoy passporting rights but not the UK is risible.
    I don't think that proposal applies to banking, insurance and other key sectors.
    'Alternative Investment Fund Managers' (what ever they are.....)

    https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-advises-extension-funds-passport-12-non-eu-countries
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    A far fetched comparison. QTWTAIN, for sure.

    Methane on Mars does that mean God Farts?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    The only way I'd back Osborne is at 66/1 or higher. 20/1 is poor value for someone who might not even be in Parliament after the 2020 election.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    PlatoSaid said:

    Second like TeamGB

    Bugger

    Or 3rd like my old China
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    If you bet £20 on Osborne becoming Tory leader, you'll lose £20.

    I'd want another zero (Possibly more) on Osbo next Tory leader.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:


    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    geoffw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Couple of interesting articles on ConHome:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/09/now-its-remain-that-doesnt-know-what-it-wants.html

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/09/daniel-hannan-repeat-after-me-single-market-membership-and-single-market-access-are-not-the-same-thing.html

    Thanks. Hannan's article is very good.
    p.s. (edit) particularly on "passporting".
    Actually, he seems to be confused on 'passporting', which is not the same as 'equivalence'.
    No he's not, he explicitly deals with passporting.

    Last month, the EU’s regulator recommended that passporting rights be extended to firms regulated in Australia, Canada, the Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Japan, Jersey, Switzerland and the United States. Now remember that, on the day Brexit takes effect, Britain won’t just have equivalent regulation to the EU; it will have identical regulation. The idea that the Cayman Islands might enjoy passporting rights but not the UK is risible.
    I don't think that proposal applies to banking, insurance and other key sectors.
    'Alternative Investment Fund Managers' (what ever they are.....)

    https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-advises-extension-funds-passport-12-non-eu-countries
    Hedge funds.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    At some point someone other than TSE will speak up for Osborne.

    tim, maybe, or the good Alan Brooke
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    Shock Horror. Trump leads in a national Poll.

    (OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)

    Edit: #NeverTrump adverts asking him to keep his promise to withdraw if he isn't in contention now look like p*ss*ng in the wind.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited September 2016
    weejonnie said:

    Shock Horror. Trump leads in a national Poll.

    (OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)

    He is going to win, too.

    Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MaxPB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:


    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    geoffw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Couple of interesting articles on ConHome:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/09/now-its-remain-that-doesnt-know-what-it-wants.html

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/09/daniel-hannan-repeat-after-me-single-market-membership-and-single-market-access-are-not-the-same-thing.html

    Thanks. Hannan's article is very good.
    p.s. (edit) particularly on "passporting".
    Actually, he seems to be confused on 'passporting', which is not the same as 'equivalence'.
    No he's not, he explicitly deals with passporting.

    Last month, the EU’s regulator recommended that passporting rights be extended to firms regulated in Australia, Canada, the Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Japan, Jersey, Switzerland and the United States. Now remember that, on the day Brexit takes effect, Britain won’t just have equivalent regulation to the EU; it will have identical regulation. The idea that the Cayman Islands might enjoy passporting rights but not the UK is risible.
    I don't think that proposal applies to banking, insurance and other key sectors.
    'Alternative Investment Fund Managers' (what ever they are.....)

    https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-advises-extension-funds-passport-12-non-eu-countries
    Hedge funds.
    Those are funds that hedge their bets, right ?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    No, the best he can hope for is a latter day Roy Jenkins on a good day and he lacks Churchill's charisma while crawling back to the EU with our tails between our legs is hardly holding off the NAZIs. It would only happen I'm the unlikely event May agrees a full hard BREXIT and the economy collapses and even then the LDs or maybe even Labour would be the main beneficiaries
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Osborne has as much chance of becoming PM as Corbyn. Discuss.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016
    Unfortunately I think the psychology is the opposite of what TSE assumes, even if Osborne is proven right (which would be hard to tell anyway). People take a strong dislike to someone who has been proven inconveniently right. I don't think 20/1 is value!
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:


    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    geoffw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Couple of interesting articles on ConHome:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/09/now-its-remain-that-doesnt-know-what-it-wants.html

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/09/daniel-hannan-repeat-after-me-single-market-membership-and-single-market-access-are-not-the-same-thing.html

    Thanks. Hannan's article is very good.
    p.s. (edit) particularly on "passporting".
    Actually, he seems to be confused on 'passporting', which is not the same as 'equivalence'.
    No he's not, he explicitly deals with passporting.

    Last month, the EU’s regulator recommended that passporting rights be extended to firms regulated in Australia, Canada, the Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Japan, Jersey, Switzerland and the United States. Now remember that, on the day Brexit takes effect, Britain won’t just have equivalent regulation to the EU; it will have identical regulation. The idea that the Cayman Islands might enjoy passporting rights but not the UK is risible.
    I don't think that proposal applies to banking, insurance and other key sectors.
    'Alternative Investment Fund Managers' (what ever they are.....)

    https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-advises-extension-funds-passport-12-non-eu-countries
    Hedge funds.
    Those are funds that hedge their bets, right ?
    If that ever came to pass, the city would reclocate to St Helier - shurely?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    There's a path to return for Osborne to be sure. The question would be if he wants to hang it out as a MP or get a international level role.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Jonathan said:

    Osborne has as much chance of becoming PM as Corbyn. Discuss.

    I'd take Corbyn in a match, if neither becomes PM all void bet.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    If you bet £20 on Osborne becoming Tory leader, you'll lose £20.

    I'd want another zero (Possibly more) on Osbo next Tory leader.

    Not many in that list would tempt me. May will be around for ar least 4 years, more likely longer, so some other names at the top look likely to me.

    It would have to be a major turn of fortunes for George to get a look in, such as a major deteriation in our economy.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Some Corbyn allies floating idea of Unite's Andrew Murray as new Labour gen-sec: would make more sense if he wasn't in Communist party.

    @PickardJE: Other rumoured names for Labour general secretary: Jennie Formby of Unite, Jon Lansman and Sam Tarry.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited September 2016
    To be the latter day WC, GO would at some point have to cross the floor and go and join the LDs - surely?

    O_o
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Some Corbyn allies floating idea of Unite's Andrew Murray as new Labour gen-sec: would make more sense if he wasn't in Communist party.

    @PickardJE: Other rumoured names for Labour general secretary: Jennie Formby of Unite, Jon Lansman and Sam Tarry.

    Is McNicol's tenure coming to an end ?
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2016
    Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Shock Horror. Trump leads in a national Poll.

    (OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)

    He is going to win, too.

    Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
    I've always been surprised by the low quality of US presidential candidates, but Hillary is in a class of her own. Strong poison. You can sell washing powder but she's arsenic.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I'll be honest, I couldn't come up with 3 thread topics a day either. So the occasional comedy angle has to come into play :D
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Mortimer said:

    To be the latter day WC, GO would at some point have to cross the floor and go and join the LDs - surely?

    O_o

    "The former pensions minister Steve Webb said in an interview the other day that we were planning to abolish the lump sum. Well, we've decided to keep the lump sum and abolish the Liberal Democrats."

    :)
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Brexit has reinvigorated our national mojo and sense of self a bit. Ozzy was a twat for unzipping and relieving himself on that in advance, on the assumption that Brits would vote EU over the UK! Moron. He'll never be leader or PM. He's toxic.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Jonathan said:

    Osborne has as much chance of becoming PM as Corbyn. Discuss.

    But more chance than Smith TBF
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Unfortunately I think the psychology is the opposite of what TSE assumes, even if Osborne is proven right (which would be hard to tell anyway). People take a strong dislike to someone who has been proven inconveniently right. I don't think 20/1 is value!

    Indeed, he might be blamed for too persuasively talking down the prospects of a successful Brexit before the vote.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scanning through the list spotting a lot of Tory heavy hitters and well known backbenchers then spot Alan Mak @ 25/1. Looks like someone at Hills has a sense of humour.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,739
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So which one do we reckon will be our future leader? I put my money on grey suit right at the back looking smug.

    Eton boys given private audience with Vladimir Putin

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37242146

    Quite a coup for those enterprising youngsters. I doubt they'd have enjoyed such a warm welcome in the currently clown occupied Oval Office.
    Back of the queue...
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432

    Is that Mr Hunt at the back?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I couldn't come up with 3 thread topics a day either. So the occasional comedy angle has to come into play :D

    A more interesting angle to this topic is the when rather than the who. I wouldn't want to be locking up serious money on this market as it could take some time to pay out.
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    This will happen in the same parallel universe in which Alan Johnson proved 'a fine shadow chancellor'.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    bigjohnowls said:

    Jonathan said:

    Osborne has as much chance of becoming PM as Corbyn. Discuss.

    But more chance than Smith TBF
    Sadly true. Thanks to Corbyn there is a negligible chance of us seeing any Labour PM for the foreseeable future.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,739
    edited September 2016
    "We’ve been here before, a charismatic former Tory Chancellor who warned the country"

    Let me just stop you right there.....
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432

    Is that Mr Hunt at the back?

    It might be the grim reaper witnessing the final moments of the Labour party.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,739
    Bairstow, Jordan & Willey in...Buttler, Woakes & Wood rested

    Hmmm.....
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    MP_SE said:

    Scanning through the list spotting a lot of Tory heavy hitters and well known backbenchers then spot Alan Mak @ 25/1. Looks like someone at Hills has a sense of humour.

    Cant see TSE odds surely he should be shorter than GO
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited September 2016
    Question to those who know about these things.

    If we said to the EU that our red lines are we must control our immigration, UK law must have supremacy and we won't pay a dime to the EU, but we want as good a deal on access for each of finance, goods and services as the best other non-EU country (who does not accept freedom of movement, pay into the budget or accept the ECJ rulings), what would that actually look like?

    Clarification, the best deal for any non-EU country on each parameter, not the single country with the best overall deal on those parameters combined.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,739
    Influential leave campaign individual addressing the masses in BREXIT-UPON-TRENT.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016
    MP_SE said:

    Scanning through the list spotting a lot of Tory heavy hitters and well known backbenchers then spot Alan Mak @ 25/1. Looks like someone at Hills has a sense of humour.

    Or perhaps they took a big bet from a mystery punter in Havant Town, who seemed to have inside info...
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    edited September 2016
    Err, no. I have never thought that Osbo has the charisma to be the leader in any event. His skills make him a good number two, but like many good number twos you think carefully before giving them the top job.

    Besides (1) he is damaged goods, and there are almost no examples at the top of politics where people get any sort of second chance. The very fact that TSE goes back to the 1930s for his precedent actually makes the point.

    And besides (2) it will be the whole of the Tory party that will be seen as complicit if Brexit turns sour. The whole anti-EU situation is of their making, the Referendum was their doing, and the outcome largely down to the actions of leading Tories (including Osbo and Cammo).

    If Brexit goes bad, it won't be another Tory that gets the political benefit, as others have already said.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    TSE has the hots for Osborne, doesn't he? :lol:
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Shock Horror. Trump leads in a national Poll.

    (OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)

    He is going to win, too.

    Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
    Rasmussen had Romney 1/2 points ahead for most of the election in 2012. I wouldn't get that excited about that one.

  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Churchill ended up on the back benches because he bitterly opposed Indian home rule - a topic which I think history has judged he was on the wrong side of.....and his opposition to Nazism became clearer, much later, after he had had some pretty ambiguous views on the subject....
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    A brave thread header. - Silly season not quite over yet I see. :lol:
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432


    Corbyn address every person who will vote for him in 2020.

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    edited September 2016
    Churchill warned us about a threat from mainland Europe threatening our sovereignty.

    Osborne wanted us to vote for the (current) threat.

    Osborne = appeaser
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    George Osborne is way too talented to hang around on the Tory backbenches until people appreciate his talents. I will be very surprised if he is still an MP in a year's time which makes this proposal deeply unattractive.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Jonathan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432

    Is that Mr Hunt at the back?

    It might be the grim reaper witnessing the final moments of the Labour party.
    The brand is so strong even Tristram can get elected as Labour

    Roll on Mandotory reselection.

    Thats the only way we will a united party and see if a Socialist Labour is as unpopular with voters as the Plotters think.

    2010/2015 Labour lost i think.
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    DavidL said:

    George Osborne is way too talented to hang around on the Tory backbenches until people appreciate his talents. I will be very surprised if he is still an MP in a year's time which makes this proposal deeply unattractive.

    Perhaps he can stand for Labour leader against Corbyn
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    619 said:

    Mortimer said:

    weejonnie said:

    Shock Horror. Trump leads in a national Poll.

    (OK it is Rasmussen but its psychological effect could be immense)

    He is going to win, too.

    Entirely avoidable had the DNC chosen someone vaguely popular....
    Rasmussen had Romney 1/2 points ahead for most of the election in 2012. I wouldn't get that excited about that one.

    If that is the case then d(Romney)/dt = 0 however d(Trump)/dt is +ve and d(Clinton)/dt is -ve.

    Which is a fancy way of saying that the trend is your friend.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    MarkHopkins said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432


    Corbyn address every person who will vote for him in 2020.

    I will give you good odds

    Labour 2015 Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn 29,659
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    DavidL said:

    George Osborne is way too talented to hang around on the Tory backbenches until people appreciate his talents. I will be very surprised if he is still an MP in a year's time which makes this proposal deeply unattractive.

    Do you think he's popular with his mates in the City? Might make getting a job there harder. Or were you think the IMF when Lagarde goes?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/young-labour-activist-been-expelled-11828393

    Apols if its been posted, but interesting.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    "a charismatic former Tory Chancellor "? That is the same chap (Osborne) who was regarded as a Leader by just 2% of the voters...... Osborne has completely screwed up his career inside the party because of the inept use of favourites amongst the MPs. Mrs May did not just kick him out she also removed Matt Hancock, Claire Perry and others in the Osborne camp.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TSE has the hots for Osborne, doesn't he? :lol:

    Its a man love thingy.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    George Osborne is way too talented to hang around on the Tory backbenches until people appreciate his talents. I will be very surprised if he is still an MP in a year's time which makes this proposal deeply unattractive.

    Do you think he's popular with his mates in the City? Might make getting a job there harder. Or were you think the IMF when Lagarde goes?
    The IMF would be very attractive but he might take a Goldman Sachs type appointment to keep his hand in until then.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    MTimT said:

    Question to those who know about these things.

    If we said to the EU that our red lines are we must control our immigration, UK law must have supremacy and we won't pay a dime to the EU, but we want as good a deal on access for each of finance, goods and services as the best other non-EU country (who does not accept freedom of movement, pay into the budget or accept the ECJ rulings), what would that actually look like?

    Clarification, the best deal for any non-EU country on each parameter, not the single country with the best overall deal on those parameters combined.

    Excluding EEA countries and Switzerland that fail your criteria on FoM, central payments and, in the case of the EEA but not Switzerland, extra-territorial courts.

    The FTA which goes furthest in each of those areas is the one with Canada, which is agreed in principle but not ratified. It's reasonably comprehensive on goods, and not much at all on services and finance. It is highly specific to Canada, which has issues on inter-provincial trading and regulation and wouldn't be a blueprint for Britain. I notice there are tariff quotas on just about everything in that deal, but don't know if they are generous or tight in practice. The best other deal which is actually implemented is the one for Korea covering machinery, chemicals and most agriculture with almost nothing on services. That arrangement is felt to be highly unfavourable for Korea.

    The point is, there is a vast gulf between a genuine single market arrangement such as that enjoyed by the EEA and Switzerland and the most comprehensive bilateral FTA.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    bigjohnowls said:

    Jonathan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432

    Is that Mr Hunt at the back?

    It might be the grim reaper witnessing the final moments of the Labour party.
    The brand is so strong even Tristram can get elected as Labour

    Roll on Mandotory reselection.

    Thats the only way we will a united party and see if a Socialist Labour is as unpopular with voters as the Plotters think.

    2010/2015 Labour lost i think.
    No evidence to say that it lost because it was not left wing enough. Tories seemed quite able to take votes off Labour.

    At the very best Corbyn is a cul-de-sac that Labour will one-day recover from.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Irexit is certainly getting a surprising amount of serious thought.

    At some point, the EU have to get some political control on the way things are done and communicated. Whatever the merits of the EC's case here, the political tone-deafness to Ireland's realities and to the timing of this in the immediate wake of Brexit is beyond astounding.

    Issues such as this need to be run through some sort of political and communications review at the highest EC and Council of Ministers level before a final decision is made and especially before the decision is announced so that the fall-out can be assessed properly before the decision is made and thereafter managed better once it is announced.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Why, his very posture tells me here is a man of true greatness.

    F1: Massa's retiring:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37245221
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I couldn't come up with 3 thread topics a day either. So the occasional comedy angle has to come into play :D

    Yes quite true. I am though reminded by what a former FTSE top ten Board Director said when presented with an analysis paper. "I do not need to see any decision recommended, that is my job"
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Talking of Osborne:

    The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live

  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Talking of Osborne:

    The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live

    curious url
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Patrick said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
    Ireland is only an attractive European base for these US tech companies because it's part of the EU though isn't it? If they weren't part of the EU then those companies wouldn't be able to transfer all their EU earnings through it and get away with very low taxation.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Any one have insight into any change in the EU vs Switzerland position on FOM? The deadline is February 2017 and there are just 5 months left.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    how does a referee from Qatar get to officiate in japan vs uae?

    appalling performance by the lad too. gave a soft penalty, failed to give a goal where the ball was miles over the line.

    terrible business. Japan were a bit shite too mind. too much pissing about when they needed to be direct and harass a goalie who couldn't catch...
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Talking of Osborne:

    The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live


    Also from there

    "Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for competition between 2004 and 2010, suggests her former colleagues have taken the wrong approach over Apple’s Irish tax affairs.

    Writing for the Guardian, she says:

    Rather than pursuing a handful of countries and companies for the past, we should focus on shaping a fair tax system for the future.

    The controversy about state aid and tax rulings is not about whether companies pay their fair share, but where that share should be paid. That is an important question, but not one for state aid."
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    Patrick said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
    That would be stupid. Those companies are only invested in Ireland because it's in the EU. That's Ireland's pitch
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    JonathanD said:

    Also from there

    "Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for competition between 2004 and 2010, suggests her former colleagues have taken the wrong approach over Apple’s Irish tax affairs.

    Writing for the Guardian, she says:

    Rather than pursuing a handful of countries and companies for the past, we should focus on shaping a fair tax system for the future.

    The controversy about state aid and tax rulings is not about whether companies pay their fair share, but where that share should be paid. That is an important question, but not one for state aid."

    Yes, it's an interesting article. I think she makes some very good points.
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161

    Re Winston’s political perambulations, I wonder whether David Cameron will have a come back in some capacity other than leader. He showed himself to be a master of the HoC at the despatch box, and though the Conservatives don’t need him right now, a man of his talents shouldn’t languish in backbench obscurity. Could he not be useful to the brexit team? After all, though he made a hash of the pre-referendum “negotiations”, he has been to all the capitals and met the main men (and women) there and must have an idea what hopes and concerns they have. I would rather have him involved than “Leavocrats” (c) Lord O’Donnell whose recent broadcast on the matter I’m currently listening to. He seems to revel in the complexity of it all. I get the feeling that the civil service would do the equivalent of “gold plating” EU directives when undoing them.

  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2016
    FF43 said:

    Patrick said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
    That would be stupid. Those companies are only invested in Ireland because it's in the EU. That's Ireland's pitch
    Eire had better follow EU diktats then. Or else.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Talking of Osborne:

    The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live

    As a statistic doesnt mean much really.

    ZHC %


    Also children in Poverty are much more likely to be from families in work.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    foxinsoxuk said:

    First!

    Wasn't Churchill exiled to the backbenches in the Twenties, more than 5 years before Nazis and rearmament became an issue?

    An excellent TV series was Winston Churchill "The Wilderness Years" covers this period

    This is episode 1

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiWkYW9p-7OAhXoAsAKHctxDRsQtwIIPDAE&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTzyAuFR60o&usg=AFQjCNGpR8etz3xYNbosMmX7GIJegMva5w
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Don't think TSE is going to be seeing 444 runs today. Not even in total.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Jonathan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Jonathan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/771334174380818432

    Is that Mr Hunt at the back?

    It might be the grim reaper witnessing the final moments of the Labour party.
    The brand is so strong even Tristram can get elected as Labour

    Roll on Mandotory reselection.

    Thats the only way we will a united party and see if a Socialist Labour is as unpopular with voters as the Plotters think.

    2010/2015 Labour lost i think.
    No evidence to say that it lost because it was not left wing enough. Tories seemed quite able to take votes off Labour.

    At the very best Corbyn is a cul-de-sac that Labour will one-day recover from.
    Why do you think Lab lost in 2010 and 2015?

    Not Tory Lite enough?

    Returning to New Labour is also a cul-de-sac thats resulted in 2 defeats dont you think.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Talking of Osborne:

    The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live

    As a statistic doesnt mean much really.

    ZHC %


    Also children in Poverty are much more likely to be from families in work.
    It's a very useful statistic, when you recognise that many social problems like long term unemployment, truancy (itself down approximately a third), and social isolation go hand in hand.
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JonathanD said:

    Also from there

    "Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for competition between 2004 and 2010, suggests her former colleagues have taken the wrong approach over Apple’s Irish tax affairs.

    Writing for the Guardian, she says:

    Rather than pursuing a handful of countries and companies for the past, we should focus on shaping a fair tax system for the future.

    The controversy about state aid and tax rulings is not about whether companies pay their fair share, but where that share should be paid. That is an important question, but not one for state aid."

    Yes, it's an interesting article. I think she makes some very good points.

    It will be interesting to see how protectionist and anti-free market the EU will now get without the UK's influence and voting rights.

  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Spot of bother for SpaceX launch - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37247077
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    FF43 said:

    Patrick said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
    That would be stupid. Those companies are only invested in Ireland because it's in the EU. That's Ireland's pitch

    But if Ireland cannot provide low enough tax breaks, then they lose their advantage anyway.

    Isn't the real problem that the US want to collect all the tax revenue for themselves, hence them being upset with the EU's pronouncement?

  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2016
    JonathanD said:

    Patrick said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
    Ireland is only an attractive European base for these US tech companies because it's part of the EU though isn't it? If they weren't part of the EU then those companies wouldn't be able to transfer all their EU earnings through it and get away with very low taxation.
    First of all apols - think I pressed "flag" not "quote". Fat finger syndrome!

    Yes Ireland is HQ base for lots of these US and other firms because of the EU, but also because they speak English, and have an attractive tax and business regime.

    The EU seemingly has a tin ear to the possibility that though some compromise of sorts will doubtless be cobbled together on this issue with Apple:-

    a) Many US/far Eastern firms will take note and mark it down as a "negative" in the EU column. Huge retrospective bills dating back decades are not the way to attract investment.
    b) So will the Irish to an extent
    c) So will the USA, especially if they got effectively stiffed for the bill by Apple claiming it as a loss against US tax possibly?

    None of this might matter on its own but it's exactly this sort of dripping tap of bollocks that eventually cheesed the Brits off enough to do the "unthinkable" and pull the plug. Now I'm sure the Irish are way off being in that place, but if the perception grows that being in the EU, creates problems with their other two big trading partners ie the US and the UK would the thought grow of severing links with the awkward one and snuggling up to the other two a bit more? Sure 800 years of history between UK and Ireland and all that, but nobody this side of the Irish Sea is trying to take away their independent decision making powers are they? Doubtless the UK and Ireland could sign a free trade deal by about Friday week without too much exaggeration (OK a bit). Solves any Northern border issue at a stroke too.

  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Anyone wanting to go balls-deep on any of the candidates in this market?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    MTimT said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Irexit is certainly getting a surprising amount of serious thought.

    At some point, the EU have to get some political control on the way things are done and communicated. Whatever the merits of the EC's case here, the political tone-deafness to Ireland's realities and to the timing of this in the immediate wake of Brexit is beyond astounding.

    Issues such as this need to be run through some sort of political and communications review at the highest EC and Council of Ministers level before a final decision is made and especially before the decision is announced so that the fall-out can be assessed properly before the decision is made and thereafter managed better once it is announced.
    Its really almost as if they think life would be easier if Ireland just followed Britain and that having a member whose economy depends so heavily on free trade with the UK is more trouble than it is worth.

    Messy with them in the Euro though.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    FF43 said:

    MTimT said:

    Question to those who know about these things.

    If we said to the EU that our red lines are we must control our immigration, UK law must have supremacy and we won't pay a dime to the EU, but we want as good a deal on access for each of finance, goods and services as the best other non-EU country (who does not accept freedom of movement, pay into the budget or accept the ECJ rulings), what would that actually look like?

    Clarification, the best deal for any non-EU country on each parameter, not the single country with the best overall deal on those parameters combined.

    Excluding EEA countries and Switzerland that fail your criteria on FoM, central payments and, in the case of the EEA but not Switzerland, extra-territorial courts.

    The FTA which goes furthest in each of those areas is the one with Canada, which is agreed in principle but not ratified. It's reasonably comprehensive on goods, and not much at all on services and finance. It is highly specific to Canada, which has issues on inter-provincial trading and regulation and wouldn't be a blueprint for Britain. I notice there are tariff quotas on just about everything in that deal, but don't know if they are generous or tight in practice. The best other deal which is actually implemented is the one for Korea covering machinery, chemicals and most agriculture with almost nothing on services. That arrangement is felt to be highly unfavourable for Korea.

    The point is, there is a vast gulf between a genuine single market arrangement such as that enjoyed by the EEA and Switzerland and the most comprehensive bilateral FTA.
    Thanks.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Irexit is certainly getting a surprising amount of serious thought.''

    That is a fascinating article in a number of ways.

    First, if Ireland's ''industrial revolution'' was so precious, then why didn;t they ensure their biggest potential free market backer in the EU (Britain) remained? Why didn';t they vote with us sometimes?

    We also have the answer in that article. The sly, chippy emnity to the former colonial power.

    Ireland's EU policy, like that of all the smaller countries, has been a gargantuan failure. Their overriding priority should have been to ensure the free market balancer and second largest writer of cheques stayed at all costs.

    Instead they took Britain for granted. They must live with the consequences.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    edited September 2016
    JonathanD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Talking of Osborne:

    The proportion of children living in workless households dropped in the second quarter of 2016 to 11% - the lowest level on record.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-eu-irish-tax-swoop-political-crap-tim-cook-business-live


    Also from there

    "Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for competition between 2004 and 2010, suggests her former colleagues have taken the wrong approach over Apple’s Irish tax affairs.

    Writing for the Guardian, she says:

    Rather than pursuing a handful of countries and companies for the past, we should focus on shaping a fair tax system for the future.

    The controversy about state aid and tax rulings is not about whether companies pay their fair share, but where that share should be paid. That is an important question, but not one for state aid."
    Mixed feelings on this. Domestic companies will be pursued retrospectively for aggressive tax avoidance schemes that don't hold up, so there is no reason why Apple should be immune just because there is an international dimension to their particular arrangement.

    The old sharp line between tax evasion (illegal) and tax reduction (what everyone should be doing) is blurred these days by aggressive tax avoidance schemes that involve the application of legitimate reduction measures in circumstances that are misrepresented (in some cases with the connivance of governments,as with Apple). We don't have good ways of dealing with this.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    SandyRentool said:

    Anyone wanting to go balls-deep on any of the candidates in this market?

    Um, Priti and Penny look OK :)

    Oh, you mean the other kind of balls-deep....
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2016
    ''Its really almost as if they think life would be easier if Ireland just followed Britain and that having a member whose economy depends so heavily on free trade with the UK is more trouble than it is worth.''

    Given that, what was Ireland's policy in the EU? Back Britain? throw its weight behind the free market agenda??

    Was it f8ck. They were right behind the French and Germans in all the key votes. What monumental idiocy.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    England seem to have found the solution to their fielding problems. Just make sure all the catches go to Stokes.
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    welshowl said:

    JonathanD said:

    Patrick said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Patrick said:

    A really good article on Apple / EU / Ireland form the perspective of the Irish citizen:

    http://letsexpress.me/2016/09/the-real-apple-issue/

    Eire torn between its two gods, the US and the EU. I think we can laugh.
    The EU bureaucracy are being asshats as usual. They'll push Eire out if they keep this one up - just as they pushed us away.
    Ireland is only an attractive European base for these US tech companies because it's part of the EU though isn't it? If they weren't part of the EU then those companies wouldn't be able to transfer all their EU earnings through it and get away with very low taxation.

    a) Many US/far Eastern firms will take note and mark it down as a "negative" in the EU column. Huge retrospective bills dating back decades are not the way to attract investment.

    I understand your general theory on the matter but in this case, it's not that Apple is doing lots of investing or manufacturing in Ireland, it's that they are using Ireland as a low tax sales base for selling into the rest of the EU. Apple will still want to sell their product in Europe - they aren't going to pull out of Ireland because of this.

    I think the EU decision is bad because its retrospective and manipulates state aid rules in a way they weren't intended but I don't think its a clear cut case for Apple or Ireland either.

This discussion has been closed.

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