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Mr. Moses, things can always get worse, to coin a phrase.0
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Mr. L, I do wonder if it might be different to both the Obama queue comment and the Guardian writing letters about George W Bush, though.
It's fundamentally positive. Farage is saying "We did it, and so can you." Obama was saying "Vote the wrong way and get to the back of the queue" and the Guardian, from fuzzy memory, was also just negative about Bush.
Hard to say, though, not being a Yankee Doodle.0 -
Save more? Start businesses? Lend within peer groups/families?john_zims said:@Mortimer
'They're booming because some people are more willing to deprive others of a home of their own than start/invest in a business.
Generation Boom seem to think that they're entitled to a return on their money. They're not.'
They're booming because Gordon Brown trashed their pensions, what else are they supposed to do to provide for their retirement ?
The fact that New Labour also presided over the lowest council house building since the second world war combined with a policy of mass immigration ensured that we ended up with this incredible mess.
The era of inflation driven easy saving is over. Gone. Kaput. Some fantastic articles by Izabella K. on Alphaville a couple of years back convinced me.
If people want to make money with money they should invest it in the productive economy.0 -
Remain were ahead within the margin of error. Clinton is ahead by a much more massive degree.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is there another lesson from Brexit though? President Obama went down like a cup of cold sick when he lectured Britons on the perils of life at the back of the queue. Will Americans be more ready to listen to the equally foreign Farage? What does the editor of The Guardian think?PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
Also, the networks all refer to farage as far right. That is how he is viewed in the US.0 -
How is that possible? My timeline is awash with really effed off Labourites who've been expelled, effed off about others being expelled, feeling victimised or bullied.Jonathan said:
The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members
From a rubber-necker's perspective, I feel sorry for them - if I was a Labourite, I can't even imagine being part of it. Horrific.0 -
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
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Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
The difference is that in America far right is seen as a positive and liberal is used as an insult.619 said:
Remain were ahead within the margin of error. Clinton is ahead by a much more massive degree.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is there another lesson from Brexit though? President Obama went down like a cup of cold sick when he lectured Britons on the perils of life at the back of the queue. Will Americans be more ready to listen to the equally foreign Farage? What does the editor of The Guardian think?PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
Also, the networks all refer to farage as far right. That is how he is viewed in the US.
With the lack of interest of most Americans, particularly blue collar workers, in foreign affairs (apart from when US forces are engaged) the endorsement of foreign politicians is likely to be less important than endorsement by some Sports personality in hicksville.0 -
Tourism currently accounts for something like 9% of GDP and of all jobs in the UK. So it's a biggie. It's also a sector where there are good growth prospects.JonathanD said:Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about.
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It seems to me that Clinton/Trump margin (5-6% on average) isn't much different from the Remain/Leave margin, prior to the last fortnight of the campaign, albeit, I would expect a polling upset to be less likely in a Presidential election than in a referendum.619 said:
Remain were ahead within the margin of error. Clinton is ahead by a much more massive degree.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is there another lesson from Brexit though? President Obama went down like a cup of cold sick when he lectured Britons on the perils of life at the back of the queue. Will Americans be more ready to listen to the equally foreign Farage? What does the editor of The Guardian think?PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
Also, the networks all refer to farage as far right. That is how he is viewed in the US.
Edit: Being behind by 5% in polls probably means that you win about one time out of five. That's quite a fair chance of winning, but it also means that 4 times out of 5 you lose. So, while the Brexit vote can give some comfort to Trump, it doesn't alter the fact that he's likely to lose on current polling.0 -
Terribly tragic, but at the same time there is something very bizarre about this case.PlatoSaid said:
Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Obviously it depends on the actual spread, but it's definitely going to be worth a look at. Buy McLaren points and sell Ferrari points.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, whoa there, crazy horse!
I said I'd be looking at McLaren next year. I didn't say I'd be betting on them for certain and I offered no tip to that effect. I may well end up betting on them and I think value could be there, but it's very much wait and see.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, yes, I agree with that entirely [good point on Ferrari, by the way], I just didn't want people to think I'd tipped something. It's more an area of interest, for now.
Still trying to work out what stakes to use. That'll be a function of how many bets I make, of course, but I'll probably make them extremely low, for the first year at least.
Edited extra bit: and worth remembering that Australia suits the McLaren, so don't take the Oz performance as indicative of the season, but as flattering the McLaren [cf the year Button and Magnussen had podium finishes and McLaren, briefly, led the Constructors'].0 -
Is it a comment on the poor state of the media and police, that it's quickly thought by many that there must be a significant detail missing from a story like this?Mortimer said:
Terribly tragic, but at the same time there is something very bizarre about this case.PlatoSaid said:
Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:Casino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
I was farmed out from before I can remember to a variety of random nice people - I call that being fostered, not loved. Being a perma-guest in someone else's house or on the fringe of their family - minding your manners lest you're never asked back... And only going home when it was time for bed or homework.0 -
Yes there is. Something yet to emerge here I suspect.Mortimer said:
Terribly tragic, but at the same time there is something very bizarre about this case.PlatoSaid said:
Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
It has the effect of exaggerating any changes - as the Lib Dems know all too well.Alistair said:
Why is the Y-Axis Dodgy? Is it the wrong numbers? You don't need to zero base line charts.John_M said:This was lost in the furore yesterday, while we're talking about the young:
https://twitter.com/mcdonnelljp/status/7690868517098659850 -
It's stating the obvious that it's bizarre. But it is conceivable that among a group of infrequent swimmers, one or two went out too far and got into difficulties, the others went to help them and died in the attempt.Mortimer said:
Terribly tragic, but at the same time there is something very bizarre about this case.PlatoSaid said:
Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Were they planning to vote for Cornyn or Smith?Sandpit said:
Is it a comment on the poor state of the media and police, that it's quickly thought by many that there must be a significant detail missing from a story like this?Mortimer said:
Terribly tragic, but at the same time there is something very bizarre about this case.PlatoSaid said:
Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:Casino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
F1: Ericsson has an engine penalty.
At this rate, Hamilton will start where he qualifies.
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I don't think that the Farage intervention will have the same counterproductive affect as the examples you cite, because as you rightly say, Farage was reinforcing the Trump message rather than trying to work against it. Even so, no-one likes being told what to do by a foreigner, even if they're on your side.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, I do wonder if it might be different to both the Obama queue comment and the Guardian writing letters about George W Bush, though.
It's fundamentally positive. Farage is saying "We did it, and so can you." Obama was saying "Vote the wrong way and get to the back of the queue" and the Guardian, from fuzzy memory, was also just negative about Bush.
Hard to say, though, not being a Yankee Doodle.0 -
Okay, didn't mean to give the impression you'd actually tipped anything, only that you'd mentioned it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, yes, I agree with that entirely [good point on Ferrari, by the way], I just didn't want people to think I'd tipped something. It's more an area of interest, for now.
Still trying to work out what stakes to use. That'll be a function of how many bets I make, of course, but I'll probably make them extremely low, for the first year at least.
Edited extra bit: and worth remembering that Australia suits the McLaren, so don't take the Oz performance as indicative of the season, but as flattering the McLaren [cf the year Button and Magnussen had podium finishes and McLaren, briefly, led the Constructors'].
Agree on small stakes. Remember that £1 or £2 a point could end up at £100 or £200 one way or the other, although if you're buying points the maximum liability will be thelowerhigher bound of the spread - unless there's a way of negative points being scored! Selling points creates a much higher potential loss, so need to be extra careful on those.0 -
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
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How about the child here? Or is this just another version of the Me Generation?not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
''Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. ''
One parent staying at home!???!! Blimey Ms Plato that is a radical suggestion.0 -
Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London.JonathanD said:
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
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I think most Trump supporters were ' Who the hell is this guy'?david_herdson said:
I don't think that the Farage intervention will have the same counterproductive affect as the examples you cite, because as you rightly say, Farage was reinforcing the Trump message rather than trying to work against it. Even so, no-one likes being told what to do by a foreigner, even if they're on your side.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, I do wonder if it might be different to both the Obama queue comment and the Guardian writing letters about George W Bush, though.
It's fundamentally positive. Farage is saying "We did it, and so can you." Obama was saying "Vote the wrong way and get to the back of the queue" and the Guardian, from fuzzy memory, was also just negative about Bush.
Hard to say, though, not being a Yankee Doodle.
Most moderate republicans have farage described as far right by the press and won't be impressed0 -
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, if stakes under £1 are possible I'll definitely give that a look for the first season, then alter stakes according to winning/losing.
Unsure if I'll stick with my usual F1 approach [which I sadly dropped for the Verstappen bet] of always using the same stake on weekend bets.0 -
In state polls, he is anywhere to 7 to 14 points behind in places he needs to win, and seems to be making republican states competitive.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that Clinton/Trump margin (5-6% on average) isn't much different from the Remain/Leave margin, prior to the last fortnight of the campaign, albeit, I would expect a polling upset to be less likely in a Presidential election than in a referendum.619 said:
Remain were ahead within the margin of error. Clinton is ahead by a much more massive degree.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is there another lesson from Brexit though? President Obama went down like a cup of cold sick when he lectured Britons on the perils of life at the back of the queue. Will Americans be more ready to listen to the equally foreign Farage? What does the editor of The Guardian think?PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
Also, the networks all refer to farage as far right. That is how he is viewed in the US.
Edit: Being behind by 5% in polls probably means that you win about one time out of five. That's quite a fair chance of winning, but it also means that 4 times out of 5 you lose. So, while the Brexit vote can give some comfort to Trump, it doesn't alter the fact that he's likely to lose on current polling.
0 -
Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?weejonnie said:
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Seriously?! In relation to the conference (which I could believe - security apart, we've heard very little and I could well imagine that there's a lot more that's a long way behind where it should be), or in relation to the party at large?Jonathan said:
The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members0 -
I'd say bring back the married couples' tax allowance, in the examples mentioned this morning that could make the difference between choosing to work or not.PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
I was farmed out from before I can remember to a variety of random nice people - I call that being fostered, not loved. Being a perma-guest in someone else's house or on the fringe of their family - minding your manners lest you're never asked back... And only going home when it was time for bed or homework.
The problem now though is that all this professional childcare counts in the GDP stats, in a way that 'amateur' childcare doesn't, so more mums staying at home and looking after their own kids, or the kids next door, could actually lead to a recession!0 -
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.0 -
''Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London. ''
I know of six Milanese couples who are planning to visit Wales in October. They are coming for the rugby. Italy aren't even playing. They just love the atmosphere, the fun and the apres game shenanigans.0 -
Probably a function of the currency.Patrick said:
Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London.JonathanD said:
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
I stay in lots of mediocre hotels and pubs whilst travelling to auctions - some of these are tremendously expensive. Hiltons and Holiday Inns look cheap compared to small hotels. Must be offputting to tourists - especially when compared to the Med.
But now - we're 20% cheaper.
Good for antiquarian book sales abroad, too....0 -
Rather annoyingly I missed your Verstappen tip for some reason, think it was a busy work week - you did get a couple of quid on at 250/1 though, didn't you?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, yeah, if stakes under £1 are possible I'll definitely give that a look for the first season, then alter stakes according to winning/losing.
Unsure if I'll stick with my usual F1 approach [which I sadly dropped for the Verstappen bet] of always using the same stake on weekend bets.0 -
There will be plenty of bad news post-Brexit. Those who wish to prove their point just need to keep their powder dry. I'm surprised and pleased by how good the data is thus far, but the trend for a slowdown started at the end of 2013 and I think that a recession, however mild, is baked in within the next 18 months.0
-
PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-making-more-states-competitive-red-states/
Read.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, just a tiny amount. But still my biggest ever win.
You may've missed it because it was only tipped here, not on pb.com (the odds vanished before the race weekend kicked off).0 -
A common one is that they back at the booker maker first then the battery on their phone dies so they can't make the lay.Pulpstar said:
"I backed Man Utd at Hills, backed Man City at Ladbrokes and lost th lot due to a drawAlistair said:
I think that is a wind up account. Quite common on MSE, people would come into the Matched Betting forum and claim they'd lost thousands due to not Matched Betting correctly and try and make forum members feel bad.Pulpstar said:
What an absolute joke the British state has got itself into.
" ?
I used to live above a bookmaker so could to Shop Arbs while taking out the bins.0 -
We have the CBI industrial data which pointed to a strong July for export orders, that's hard data. As for semi-manufactured goods, I didn't say none, just that immediate import substitution is tough, which it is. Over time domestic manufacturers may become more competitive due to import price inflation, but in the immediacy additional capacity isn't easy to add overnight. Companies that have hedged at a decent rate will do well and companies who pay fixed prices in Sterling will do well as they won't have to eat the cost of weak Sterling immediately, eventually the producers will pass on 100% of the cost increases, which is when the door opens for import substitution.runnymede said:No import substitution...assumption of no price changes by exporters so 100% pass through from depreciation to import prices of semi-manufactures (probably pass through will be high-ish but I doubt 100% on past form)...even the 'boost to exports' isn't certain given we have no post-depreciation hard trade data and that such monthly data (in its initial vintages at least) is very unreliable as well.
0 -
Would I be right in calling G4S and Virgin Rail public service organisations?
Or is there a better term.0 -
In relation to the party at large. There is zero trust. A great deal of anger. There is no meaningful communication, to the extent that even the most objective facts are questioned. Conspiracies abound. There are two groups shouting across each other. Individuals who dare to get in the middle or cross between sides get squashed.david_herdson said:
Seriously?! In relation to the conference (which I could believe - security apart, we've heard very little and I could well imagine that there's a lot more that's a long way behind where it should be), or in relation to the party at large?Jonathan said:
The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members
It should burn itself out, but shows no sign of doing so. I guess it was like this in the 80s, but it's not something I have seen anywhere else (including some pretty tricky work situations).
There is no Labour party right now. On the plus side, if someone does win and solve this - they will be a formidable candidate.
0 -
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.0 -
Capitalist parasites?TheScreamingEagles said:Would I be right in calling G4S and Virgin Rail public service organisations?
Or is there a better term.0 -
AIR, the state of the Labour Party is a lot worse now than it was in the 80’s.Jonathan said:
In relation to the party at large. There is zero trust. A great deal of anger. There is no meaningful communication, to the extent that even the most objective facts are questioned. Conspiracies abound. There are two groups shouting across each other. Individuals who dare to get in the middle or cross between sides get squashed.david_herdson said:
Seriously?! In relation to the conference (which I could believe - security apart, we've heard very little and I could well imagine that there's a lot more that's a long way behind where it should be), or in relation to the party at large?Jonathan said:
The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members
It should burn itself out, but shows no sign of doing so. I guess it was like this in the 80s, but it's not something I have seen anywhere else (including some pretty tricky work situations).
There is no Labour party right now. On the plus side, if someone does win and solve this - they will be a formidable candidate.0 -
Hmm, not been paying attention for the last few uears have you. It is precisely because Greece have been unable to devalue that they have eyewatering unemployment rates. Our currency depreciation acts as a handy buffer for real economic shock, it will, in the longer term at least, cause a rise in inflation which will eventually hurt real wealth, but for now it's a decent sugar rush.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
The fact that you want to compare post-referendum Britain to Greece tells us all we need to know about your outlook. The fact that you can't see any positives and are constantly looking for (so far non-existent) negatives is just sad. I had no idea there were so many blinkered Europhiles in the country. Maybe if you'd made better arguments in favour of the EU you wouldn't be so bitter.0 -
Which is ironic because Farage is to the left of the Republican mainstream.619 said:
I think most Trump supporters were ' Who the hell is this guy'?david_herdson said:
I don't think that the Farage intervention will have the same counterproductive affect as the examples you cite, because as you rightly say, Farage was reinforcing the Trump message rather than trying to work against it. Even so, no-one likes being told what to do by a foreigner, even if they're on your side.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, I do wonder if it might be different to both the Obama queue comment and the Guardian writing letters about George W Bush, though.
It's fundamentally positive. Farage is saying "We did it, and so can you." Obama was saying "Vote the wrong way and get to the back of the queue" and the Guardian, from fuzzy memory, was also just negative about Bush.
Hard to say, though, not being a Yankee Doodle.
Most moderate republicans have farage described as far right by the press and won't be impressed0 -
So children should spend every minute handcuffed to their parent regardless of the social or financial consequences or they are "not being looked after"? How absurd.SandyRentool said:
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.
As for demographics, there are nowhere near enough graduates in the world to make up for a falling birth rate. Also, you might find that a policy of increasing immigration is a tad unpopular right now.0 -
It's also a sector where the UK has been living beyond its means. We have a truly massive tourism deficit, holidaying in Britain has gone out of fashion at the same time as when we had a relatively strong currency. It hurt seaside towns the most IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:
Tourism currently accounts for something like 9% of GDP and of all jobs in the UK. So it's a biggie. It's also a sector where there are good growth prospects.JonathanD said:Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about.
In a putting my money where my mouth is sort of way, my gf and I have cancelled our trip to Italy this summer and are heading to the Scottish Highlands tomorrow morning until Wednesday. I haven't been before so I'm looking forward to it.0 -
Brexit anecdote: There was quite alot of secondary market availability immediately post brexit on a bridging loan website I invest in, but now people are less jittery and only a few "less attractive" loans are available to invest in now.
https://savingstream.co.uk?a=114252480 -
One of the peculiar things about American politics is how narrow and skewed to the right it is. Democrats have the most in common with the Conservatives, Republicans frequently out-kipper the kippers.Sean_F said:Which is ironic because Farage is to the left of the Republican mainstream.
0 -
Well yes. But in the real world, most families can't afford to go from two incomes supporting two people to one income supporting three or more people.PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
I was farmed out from before I can remember to a variety of random nice people - I call that being fostered, not loved. Being a perma-guest in someone else's house or on the fringe of their family - minding your manners lest you're never asked back... And only going home when it was time for bed or homework.0 -
Florida - Mason-Dixon
Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000156-c498-d23f-a5d6-ee9b02c200020 -
I'd exactly this conversation with a friend yesterday - whilst out eating 99s on the seafront...Sandpit said:
Is it a comment on the poor state of the media and police, that it's quickly thought by many that there must be a significant detail missing from a story like this?Mortimer said:
Terribly tragic, but at the same time there is something very bizarre about this case.PlatoSaid said:
Course they can - but the point here is that Camber isn't a dangerous beach, one prone to drownings or quicksand - and the weather was still/sea flat. We aren't talking of a breezy day/tide that could catch people out. The only people who drowned were 5 fit young men in the same party. Not the thousands of others on the sand.OldKingCole said:
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.htmlMortimer said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:asjohnstone said:HYUFD said:Casino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
He thought they were migrants and details were being witheld for PC reasons... and then heard another 6 migrants were rescued upshore from a tiny dingy/were being held by Border Control police.
I wonder if the two stories were conflated/the ethnicity of the Camber victims confused it too. There's been a spate of similar migrant landing/rescue stories recently down this way.0 -
Sadly the world in which children don't get farmed out requires far tighter restrictions on bank lending and house prices that aren't 5-10 times a families income...Cookie said:
Well yes. But in the real world, most families can't afford to go from two incomes supporting two people to one income supporting three or more people.PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
I was farmed out from before I can remember to a variety of random nice people - I call that being fostered, not loved. Being a perma-guest in someone else's house or on the fringe of their family - minding your manners lest you're never asked back... And only going home when it was time for bed or homework.0 -
I couldn't agree more - most small budget end hotels are just dismal. I'd rather end up in an antiseptic Travelodge than a random Best Western with a giant waterstain on the woodchip ceiling or limescale smothered taps.Mortimer said:
Probably a function of the currency.Patrick said:
Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London.JonathanD said:
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
I stay in lots of mediocre hotels and pubs whilst travelling to auctions - some of these are tremendously expensive. Hiltons and Holiday Inns look cheap compared to small hotels. Must be offputting to tourists - especially when compared to the Med.
But now - we're 20% cheaper.
Good for antiquarian book sales abroad, too....0 -
Plato says close the boarding schools. Radical!PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.0 -
A win is a win, and we all remember our biggest wins. Mine by miles was the Brexit vote, followed by a lay on Boris as next PM and Tory leader. PB Test cricket betting team has also done remarkably well over the years, as have a number of your F1 tips!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, yeah, just a tiny amount. But still my biggest ever win.
You may've missed it because it was only tipped here, not on pb.com (the odds vanished before the race weekend kicked off).0 -
Only the Guardian readers...Pulpstar said:
Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?weejonnie said:
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
What is good about a boom in tourism is that all regions of the U.K will benefit.MaxPB said:
It's also a sector where the UK has been living beyond its means. We have a truly massive tourism deficit, holidaying in Britain has gone out of fashion at the same time as when we had a relatively strong currency. It hurt seaside towns the most IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:
Tourism currently accounts for something like 9% of GDP and of all jobs in the UK. So it's a biggie. It's also a sector where there are good growth prospects.JonathanD said:Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about.
In a putting my money where my mouth is sort of way, my gf and I have cancelled our trip to Italy this summer and are heading to the Scottish Highlands tomorrow morning until Wednesday. I haven't been before so I'm looking forward to it.0 -
Then why are farmers markets so successful?PlatoSaid said:
Only the Guardian readers...Pulpstar said:
Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?weejonnie said:
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Dear me - who died and put you in charge of my life?not_on_fire said:PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-making-more-states-competitive-red-states/
Read.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, the overall F1 picture is green, although this season has been red so far. Not by a huge margin, but still [that's weekend bets only. With Verstappen it's green].0
-
No matter how big the national lead for HRC is the race remains tight in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Interesting.JackW said:Florida - Mason-Dixon
Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000156-c498-d23f-a5d6-ee9b02c200020 -
And now he has endorsed a racist and interfered in another country's election. But at least he has chopped the tache off.Sean_F said:
Which is ironic because Farage is to the left of the Republican mainstream.619 said:
I think most Trump supporters were ' Who the hell is this guy'?david_herdson said:
I don't think that the Farage intervention will have the same counterproductive affect as the examples you cite, because as you rightly say, Farage was reinforcing the Trump message rather than trying to work against it. Even so, no-one likes being told what to do by a foreigner, even if they're on your side.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, I do wonder if it might be different to both the Obama queue comment and the Guardian writing letters about George W Bush, though.
It's fundamentally positive. Farage is saying "We did it, and so can you." Obama was saying "Vote the wrong way and get to the back of the queue" and the Guardian, from fuzzy memory, was also just negative about Bush.
Hard to say, though, not being a Yankee Doodle.
Most moderate republicans have farage described as far right by the press and won't be impressed
0 -
Travelodge is the McDonalds of hotels. It's not great, and with a bit of research you'd probably find somewhere much better, but when you're in a strange town late at night you know exactly what you'll get.PlatoSaid said:
I couldn't agree more - most small budget end hotels are just dismal. I'd rather end up in an antiseptic Travelodge than a random Best Western with a giant waterstain on the woodchip ceiling or limescale smothered taps.Mortimer said:
Probably a function of the currency.Patrick said:
Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London.JonathanD said:
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
I stay in lots of mediocre hotels and pubs whilst travelling to auctions - some of these are tremendously expensive. Hiltons and Holiday Inns look cheap compared to small hotels. Must be offputting to tourists - especially when compared to the Med.
But now - we're 20% cheaper.
Good for antiquarian book sales abroad, too....0 -
Well said. If you don't want to look after your own offspring because you prefer being at work/find them difficult or boring company most of the time - don't have them. Choose cats instead, or tropical fish.SandyRentool said:
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.0 -
5...4...3....2...1....somebody makes a twat on twitter over this / train-gate....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3759854/Richard-Branson-nearly-died-high-speed-bike-crash-smashed-head-road.html0 -
No - but due to Financial Services/ Banking there is a tremendous inflowing of money into the South East, which more than makes up for expenditure outside. (Large amounts of money makes the value of money cheap - which is why houses and suchlike are much more expensive, although in the case of houses this is also fuelled by massive demand/ low supply). In the North money is relatively short - which increases its value and thus goods and services are cheaper.PlatoSaid said:
Only the Guardian readers...Pulpstar said:
Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?weejonnie said:
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Interestingly yesterday my mum kept commenting on Clinton's health and how she looks ill whilst I was watching CNN. She just volunteered this out of nowhere. I thought the Hillary is I'll meme was ridiculous and would have no traction 'till then.
I then said I thought Trump seems pretty ill to me as well.0 -
Breaking story in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/26/steve-bannon-florida-registered-vote-donald-trump
Trumps new campaign manager s apparent ly violating Florida’s election law requiring voters to be legal residents of county they register in.0 -
Smallish sample is always a concern. Crosstabs look about right.nunu said:No matter how big the national lead for HRC is the race remains tight in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Interesting.
Nevada isn't important. As I indicated earlier it's a FOP election for Trump. Win all of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania or he is done.
0 -
There seems to be a vicious cycle of:eek said:
Sadly the world in which children don't get farmed out requires far tighter restrictions on bank lending and house prices that aren't 5-10 times a families income...
1. Desire to go out to work as it's more fun than being at home/baby brain
2. Being paid to childmind has become riven with costs that push prices way up
3. So going out to work barely covers the rising costs of paying someone else
4. Two incomes are required for property/lifestyle sustaining reasons
5. Kids are farmed out because of 1-4.
And now we hear a great deal about childhood depression/anxiety/lack of self worth et al. I can't help feeling it's not a coincidence. And bugger all to do with Twitter or Facebook. That just amplifies it.0 -
Without doubt. But in the end this is a battle the hard left will lose, as most Labour members do want a Labour government. Sadly, it means gifting a very right wing Tory government the next election - and perhaps the one after that too - but the hard left can only ever end up disappointing. What's more, the last few weeks have shown just how piss poor a leader Corbyn is - he can't debate, he won't engage, he is a liar, he has actively undermined a number of his front bench appointees (mostly women), he has given far too much power to the deeply divisive John McDonnell and his PR operation is a shambles. A lot of Corbynistas know this to be the case now, but are still seething with anger at the PLP, so Jezza is a shoo-in to win. That anger will subside soon enough. Smith is taking one for the team, but the team is learning a lot in the meantime.OldKingCole said:
AIR, the state of the Labour Party is a lot worse now than it was in the 80’s.Jonathan said:
In relation to the party at large. There is zero trust. A great deal of anger. There is no meaningful communication, to the extent that even the most objective facts are questioned. Conspiracies abound. There are two groups shouting across each other. Individuals who dare to get in the middle or cross between sides get squashed.david_herdson said:
Seriously?! In relation to the conference (which I could believe - security apart, we've heard very little and I could well imagine that there's a lot more that's a long way behind where it should be), or in relation to the party at large?Jonathan said:
The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members
It should burn itself out, but shows no sign of doing so. I guess it was like this in the 80s, but it's not something I have seen anywhere else (including some pretty tricky work situations).
There is no Labour party right now. On the plus side, if someone does win and solve this - they will be a formidable candidate.
0 -
I've found plenty of hotels and guest houses in the UK that are nice to stay in, and reasonably priced. But, you need to shop around. I find Bookings.Com is an excellent service.Sandpit said:
Travelodge is the McDonalds of hotels. It's not great, and with a bit of research you'd probably find somewhere much better, but when you're in a strange town late at night you know exactly what you'll get.PlatoSaid said:
I couldn't agree more - most small budget end hotels are just dismal. I'd rather end up in an antiseptic Travelodge than a random Best Western with a giant waterstain on the woodchip ceiling or limescale smothered taps.Mortimer said:
.Patrick said:
Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London.JonathanD said:
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
Good for antiquarian book sales abroad, too....0 -
I think it all comes down to: are the pollsters factoring in everything? For instance 538 always splits the undecided on a 50-50 basis. If Nate calls all 50 states correctly it will be a great achievement as far more are closer this time. (I think he will either get 48/49 right OR only 40 depending)nunu said:
No matter how big the national lead for HRC is the race remains tight in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Interesting.JackW said:Florida - Mason-Dixon
Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000156-c498-d23f-a5d6-ee9b02c20002
(In the UK we got methodology in the polls - i.e. how they changed the raw data based on demographics. Does this happen in the USA or is it just raw data being churned out?)
0 -
Lidl and Aldi have a strong middle class customer base now- I see they are taking them from the big four.Pulpstar said:
Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?weejonnie said:
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Sandpit said:
I'd say bring back the married couples' tax allowance, in the examples mentioned this morning that could make the difference between choosing to work or not.PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
I was farmed out from before I can remember to a variety of random nice people - I call that being fostered, not loved. Being a perma-guest in someone else's house or on the fringe of their family - minding your manners lest you're never asked back... And only going home when it was time for bed or homework.
The problem now though is that all this professional childcare counts in the GDP stats, in a way that 'amateur' childcare doesn't, so more mums staying at home and looking after their own kids, or the kids next door, could actually lead to a recession!
0 -
Hardly anybody would rather be at work than at home looking after their children. This is a meme which tends to be trotted about by well-educated people with good jobs who assume most people enjoy work as much as they do. Of course most people would rather stay at home and look after their children. But it's a compromise that people have to make in order to afford things like food, shelter and electricity.PlatoSaid said:
Well said. If you don't want to look after your own offspring because you prefer being at work/find them difficult or boring company most of the time - don't have them. Choose cats instead, or tropical fish.SandyRentool said:
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.0 -
Miss Plato, worth mentioning teenagers have always had anxiety/depression, girls especially.
And that the current Millennial fetishising of victimhood will exacerbate such claims.
That said, I agree social media will genuinely increase stress/depression. If someone made a stupid mistake two decades ago, it wouldn't've been plastered all over the internet. Likewise, if someone were being bullied at school, it'd end out of school. But the internet means it can continue.0 -
Not a surprise as the school leaving age is now 18. Let's raise it to 24 and that fall will look even bigger. Yay.Alistair said:
Why is the Y-Axis Dodgy? Is it the wrong numbers? You don't need to zero base line charts.John_M said:This was lost in the furore yesterday, while we're talking about the young:
https://twitter.com/mcdonnelljp/status/7690868517098659850 -
??? Why would I be in favour of boarding schools? A very silly comment from you here.Jonathan said:
Plato says close the boarding schools. Radical!PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.
I can't imagine anything worse myself - they may be suited to a certain sort of occupation [if your parents are in the Armed Services and you don't want to relocate a lot] or if your home-life environment is awful and it'd be an escape/safer place.
Otherwise - nope.0 -
Sandy for Labour leader! Shed get my vote.PlatoSaid said:
Well said. If you don't want to look after your own offspring because you prefer being at work/find them difficult or boring company most of the time - don't have them. Choose cats instead, or tropical fish.SandyRentool said:
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.0 -
We'll know what the result is pretty much when New Hampshire declares. If Hillary has won that by 4+ %, it is over. If Trump has come very close there then it is game on - if he has won, it is also overJackW said:
Smallish sample is always a concern. Crosstabs look about right.nunu said:No matter how big the national lead for HRC is the race remains tight in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Interesting.
Nevada isn't important. As I indicated earlier it's a FOP election for Trump. Win all of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania or he is done.. 0 -
Everybody does sampling and/or weighting. If you don't your results will be a pile of pants, because there's no practical way of getting a random sample of voters.weejonnie said:In the UK we got methodology in the polls - i.e. how they changed the raw data based on demographics. Does this happen in the USA or is it just raw data being churned out?
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Oh, come on. Boarding schools are ace. Most of the children who go through them have a killer time.PlatoSaid said:
??? Why would I be in favour of boarding schools? A very silly comment from you here.Jonathan said:
Plato says close the boarding schools. Radical!PlatoSaid said:
Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.
I can't imagine anything worse myself - they may be suited to a certain sort of occupation [if your parents are in the Armed Services and you don't want to relocate a lot] or if your home-life environment is awful and it'd be an escape/safer place.
Otherwise - nope.0 -
Most people do not prefer being at work. They work because they have to. And this country need people to have children - especially if we are going to be reducing the number of immigrants.PlatoSaid said:
Well said. If you don't want to look after your own offspring because you prefer being at work/find them difficult or boring company most of the time - don't have them. Choose cats instead, or tropical fish.SandyRentool said:
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.
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Actually Travelodge in the UK is now a very weird brand and I think analogy with McDonalds is flawed.Sandpit said:
Travelodge is the McDonalds of hotels. It's not great, and with a bit of research you'd probably find somewhere much better, but when you're in a strange town late at night you know exactly what you'll get.
Where ever you go in the UK, McD's are identical. However, Travelodge, have a massive stock of terrible old properties (mainly at service stations and close to motorways) which any money is too much, then they have a number of newly built ones in town centres which are actually ok for simply a place to crash.
Somebody mentioned bookings.com, second that. One of the best thing about that site is the vast majority of the hotel rooms they list offer free on the day cancellation. Obviously there is always AirBnB as well.0 -
I never understood the Holiday Inn concept of 'same lightswitch, in the same place, controlling the same lights' until I'd spent rather too much time in random places when tired and grumpy...Sandpit said:
Travelodge is the McDonalds of hotels. It's not great, and with a bit of research you'd probably find somewhere much better, but when you're in a strange town late at night you know exactly what you'll get.PlatoSaid said:
I couldn't agree more - most small budget end hotels are just dismal. I'd rather end up in an antiseptic Travelodge than a random Best Western with a giant waterstain on the woodchip ceiling or limescale smothered taps.Mortimer said:
Probably a function of the currency.Patrick said:JonathanD said:Patrick said:JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:JonathanD said:foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
I stay in lots of mediocre hotels and pubs whilst travelling to auctions - some of these are tremendously expensive. Hiltons and Holiday Inns look cheap compared to small hotels. Must be offputting to tourists - especially when compared to the Med.
But now - we're 20% cheaper.
Good for antiquarian book sales abroad, too....
If I had to pick the one thing that'd make me choose one hotel chain over another it'd be the shower controls. I HATE the fiddling about. Then it'd be the room service menu = edible club sandwich with fries please. Oh, and a big button that turns the TV - complete with greeting/my name spelled incorrectly off.0 -
But, if Professor Godwin's et al research is to be believed, Leave were ahead all along.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that Clinton/Trump margin (5-6% on average) isn't much different from the Remain/Leave margin, prior to the last fortnight of the campaign, albeit, I would expect a polling upset to be less likely in a Presidential election than in a referendum.619 said:
Remain were ahead within the margin of error. Clinton is ahead by a much more massive degree.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is there another lesson from Brexit though? President Obama went down like a cup of cold sick when he lectured Britons on the perils of life at the back of the queue. Will Americans be more ready to listen to the equally foreign Farage? What does the editor of The Guardian think?PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.
Also, the networks all refer to farage as far right. That is how he is viewed in the US.
Edit: Being behind by 5% in polls probably means that you win about one time out of five. That's quite a fair chance of winning, but it also means that 4 times out of 5 you lose. So, while the Brexit vote can give some comfort to Trump, it doesn't alter the fact that he's likely to lose on current polling.
In hindsight, the turning point was purdah. And I bet until his dying day Cameron/Lidington will regret conceding to the Jenkyns amendment on that.
At the time it seemed like a minor technicality.0 -
I stayed one night in LIncoln earlier this week. It seemed to be full of Chinese - perhaps some summer school at the university. Despite living only 65 miles away it was my first visit. Reminded me somewhat of an old stomping ground in Durham - castle and cathedral facing each other at the top of a steep hill. Well worth a visit.Patrick said:
Well I have stayed in the Lake District, Peak District, York and Warwick just lately. All voted leave. All totally chokka with foreign tourists. Maybe the word is getting out that there is more to the UK than London.JonathanD said:
Tourism is fine but as a contributor to the health of the nation its not something I'd get too excited about. Ironically it will benefit most the areas that voted Remain (London, Edinburgh) but do little to help the left behind Leavers of Sunderland. If we are going to use our new Brexit freedoms to improve the country then we need to aim a bit higher than a bump in tourism income.Patrick said:
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
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@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+2)
LAB: 29% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-1)
(via YouGov / 22 - 23 Aug)0 -
Corbynism sweeping the nation...Scott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+2)
LAB: 29% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-1)
(via YouGov / 22 - 23 Aug)
5...4...3...2...1...Justin124 tells us this isn't all bad for Labour, because in 1898 there was a...0 -
Can you give me the details of how this "return your kids if you subsequently discover you don't like them" service works, it must have passed me by?PlatoSaid said:
Well said. If you don't want to look after your own offspring because you prefer being at work/find them difficult or boring company most of the time - don't have them. Choose cats instead, or tropical fish.SandyRentool said:
Of course it is 'not looking after them' - it is back-healing responsibility for your children to someone else. We can sort the demographics out (if it is a problem) by shipping in young graduates from the rest of the world, thereby avoiding education costs and childcare concerns.not_on_fire said:
FFS, putting children in nursery during working hours isn't "not looking after them"SandyRentool said:
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
In any case, it's in the state's interest to encourage a healthy birth rate, unless you want our already problematic demographics to get even worse.0 -
A UPI national poll yesterday had Trump ahead, RCP has Hillary ahead overall by 6% in a 2 way and 4% in a 4 way contestnunu said:
No matter how big the national lead for HRC is the race remains tight in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Interesting.JackW said:Florida - Mason-Dixon
Clinton 44 .. Trump 42
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000156-c498-d23f-a5d6-ee9b02c200020 -
There's no doubt that Trump is sick. Unfortunately under the Goldwater rule psychiatrists are not allowed to comment.nunu said:Interestingly yesterday my mum kept commenting on Clinton's health and how she looks ill whilst I was watching CNN. She just volunteered this out of nowhere. I thought the Hillary is I'll meme was ridiculous and would have no traction 'till then.
I then said I thought Trump seems pretty ill to me as well.0 -
Not so. New Hampshire is a cherry on the cake. If Trump edges it and also takes Nevada and Iowa he still requires one of FOP.Pulpstar said:We'll know what the result is pretty much when New Hampshire declares. If Hillary has won that by 4+ %, it is over. If Trump has come very close there then it is game on - if he has won, it is also over
.
FOP is the key that turns the lock.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/8lkbJ0 -
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The middle class do a big shop at Sainsburys or Tesco and look for bargains at Aldi and Lidl or treats at M & S and Waitrosenunu said:
Lidl and Aldi have a strong middle class customer base now- I see they are taking them from the big four.Pulpstar said:
Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?weejonnie said:
And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
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