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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How post BREXIT the bookmakers are looking WH2016

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,974

    @MaxPB

    "It takes me a few minutes to fillet and skin fish, he does it for me and will have both fillets done in under 20 seconds. You won't get that at any supermarket."

    Point of order, Mr. Max. The fish counter at Tescos in Burgess Hill will provide exactly that sort of service. Their fish counter is the best bit of the whole shop which now otherwise only use for household cleaning products.

    For Grocery shopping Herself will alternate between Sainsbury's and Tescos depending what she wants (Sicilian Lemonade is a full £1 dearer in Sainsbury's!) for bulk items and Aldi and Waitrose for "nice" things. Veg, meat, bread and booze we get from independent shops in the Village.

    I've always found the ASDA fresh fish counters very good.

    We also have an excellent fishmonger in Enfield, F. Berndes Ltd.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    @MaxPB

    "It takes me a few minutes to fillet and skin fish, he does it for me and will have both fillets done in under 20 seconds. You won't get that at any supermarket."

    Point of order, Mr. Max. The fish counter at Tescos in Burgess Hill will provide exactly that sort of service. Their fish counter is the best bit of the whole shop which now otherwise only use for household cleaning products.

    For Grocery shopping Herself will alternate between Sainsbury's and Tescos depending what she wants (Sicilian Lemonade is a full £1 dearer in Sainsbury's!) for bulk items and Aldi and Waitrose for "nice" things. Veg, meat, bread and booze we get from independent shops in the Village.

    The Tesco near me doesn't do that, neither does the Waitrose. However, even if they did id prefer the fishmonger, he's a nice fellow and an independent as well. Needs the support. He says that the gentrification of Shepherd's Bush has taken him from near bankruptcy to taking on an apprentice in the last few years. Glad to see some positives from it, I fear that soon the landlord will catch on and price him out though.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    Patrick said:

    The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.

    Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.
    Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....

    Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.
    And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)
    Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?
    Lidl and Aldi have a strong middle class customer base now- I see they are taking them from the big four.
    The middle class do a big shop at Sainsburys or Tesco and look for bargains at Aldi and Lidl or treats at M & S and Waitrose
    The entire class?

    I used to be in retail consulting. The rise of the luxury and discounters happened whilst I was in London. The mid market is losing out to both because by doing half your shop in the discounters you can do the other half in Waitrose/M&S - even Selfridges.

    Oh, and choice is the key - the commonality between discounters and luxury retailers is that there are not 640 choices for a tin of beans, just 1 or 2 - 3 at a push. We don't have time for choosing anymore...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited August 2016

    Labour Party rules...Don't like the Jews...not a problem...like the Foo Fighters...ban hammer..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3759906/Labour-suspends-member-party-posted-love-FOO-FIGHTERS-Facebook.html

    Armando Iannucci must be laughing his **** off at how much his satirical view of politics has been overtaken by reality.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396
    On topic my money is on Trump at a time when his odds seemed excessively generous some time before he got the nomination.

    But I expect Hilary to win unless she is (a) arrested or (b) incapacitated. (a) now looks vanishingly unlikely but there remains a risk of (b). She does not look well.

    I believe it is now more than 200 days since she did a press conference. That is how confident she is at the moment.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    619 said:

    Is this Vince's first piece? If so, welcome to the club.

    Throughout, this election has been about who wants to lose it most and I don't see that changing. Clinton - in marked contrast to her husband - is uncharismatic and a poor campaigner. Trump is an unqualified egoist with a strong nasty streak. Both are intensely disliked by a great many voters.

    What that means is that the swing Dem/Rep group is probably even smaller than usual (though we shouldn't ignore the swing Dem/abstain, Rep/Abstain, Rep/Lib and Dem/Grn groups). Trump does seem to have recovered lost ground since the Dem convention but there's almost certainly a low ceiling to his support. If Hillary can keep a saftety-first campaign on track, she'll win.

    Trump's task is therefore to lower that ceiling further, which is a task he'll no doubt enjoy thoroughly; negative campaigning is what he does best. Still, Hillary's negatives are well known and to a large extent, priced in; it's a different game from taking on Rubio or Cruz.

    Trump could win but I don't expect him to and I don't expect him to come close. Apart from the polling history - few elections swing this late in the contest - I think there's a bigger reserve of voters who'd come out to stop Trump than would do so to stop Hillary, if the race looks tight and they have to vote holding their nose. The favourability scores are proof enough there.


    yup i agree. It's hillarys to lose at the moment. I cant see anything trump can do to improve his own likeability, he has said too many terrible things
    It started out as the GOP's to lose. But then they chose Trump ...
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited August 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:



    Given the average house price is now over £200k and the average salary is £27k and you can normally get a maximum mortgage of 4 times salary, if only one partner in a couple works we become a nation of renters!

    You are talking about a different point, Mr. Hyfud, but since you bring it up. A young couple both on the median wage would be unlikely in this day an age to get a mortgage for an average house. Like the young couple up the road from me (who have enough for a deposit and a currently paying £1300 a month rent) the bank would ask them all the questions about their out-goings and then refuse to lend on the basis that they can't afford the repayments despite that they would be far less than the £1300 a month they are paying.

    At the time of the crash (2007/8) I remember seeing figures in reputable publications suggesting that house prices would have to fall by about 50% to return to long term trend. Which would have been to the long term good of all, especially if it could have been managed gently. Instead HMG to, I suspect, protect the banks (whose reckless lending had stoked the price bubble) decided to reinflate the housing market. We are now in a crazy position where, especially for the young, accumulation of wealth through saving is impossible, pensions are knackered, house ownership is out of the reach of most who don't have parents who can chip in. And all this after six years of a Conservative or Conservative-led government.
    At the moment though mortgages are "artificially cheap" due to the very low interest rates. If interest rates head back to proper historical norms of ~4% then that might knock some sense into the housing market.
    IIRC when we'd got our first mortgage in 1988 - it was 95% and £51500 over 25yrs endowment. One bedroom flat/second floor in Haywards Heath.

    We paid £900pcm at one point due to the massive interest rate hikes. We earned £50k between us with ludicrous OT to make up the difference. I can't recall either of us getting home before 2030 or both not working at the weekend just to afford eating. I even sold my 18th birthday present when we couldn't write another bouncy £50 cheque card for food.

    Mortgage rates are absurd - but the new normal. No wonder the market is out of control.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Looking at the "Direction Country is Going poll on RCP"

    Wrong Track +45!

    That may not necessarily be to Mrs Clinton's Advantage.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    MP_SE said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    Patrick said:

    The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.

    Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.
    Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....

    Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.
    And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)
    Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?
    Lidl and Aldi have a strong middle class customer base now- I see they are taking them from the big four.
    When compare to Sainsburys you can get twice as much hummus for half the price at the local Lidl.
    IIRC waitrose and m&s hummus is cheaper than Sainsbury's....?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Fortnum is passable for a grocer ....
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    Looking at the "Direction Country is Going poll on RCP"

    Wrong Track +45!

    That may not necessarily be to Mrs Clinton's Advantage.

    Have u seen the disapproval ratings of Congress?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    Probably going to be controversial here - but I think a parent should take responsibility for bringing up their own children. And that means being there to actually look after them. Not hand them off to others, because you'd rather be doing something else.

    Plato says close the boarding schools. Radical!
    ??? Why would I be in favour of boarding schools? A very silly comment from you here.

    I can't imagine anything worse myself - they may be suited to a certain sort of occupation [if your parents are in the Armed Services and you don't want to relocate a lot] or if your home-life environment is awful and it'd be an escape/safer place.

    Otherwise - nope.
    Oh, come on. Boarding schools are ace. Most of the children who go through them have a killer time.
    I hated mine. My experiences there were almost enough to tip from the conservative into the liberal democrat camp, and even today I have fairly liberal views on prison reform (yes, really) in no small part because of it.

    Although I understand they are a bit different now.
    Interesting; I'm a few years your senior. Where did you attend?
    Early - mid 1990s. So very recently.

    I couldn't believe what they were getting away with even then, in "modern" times.
    You should have tried Morrisons Academy in Crieff in the early 70s. Many of the things done were criminal offences even then.

    Eg, boys caught by the head master playing cards in the front of a French class with a particularly pathetic teacher. 6 of the belt on each hand but every time they took their hand away he started again. In my house at lunch time their hands were so covered in blisters they could not pick up their cutlery.

    Man should have been locked up.
    My friend at Shrewsbury in the 1970s/1980s is eternally grateful that he was not a good-looking boy.
    Never saw any of that at Morrisons but the level of violence was incredible. I went to a state school in Dundee afterwards and the first time I saw boys "fighting" in the playground I couldn't stop laughing.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    weejonnie said:

    Looking at the "Direction Country is Going poll on RCP"

    Wrong Track +45!

    That may not necessarily be to Mrs Clinton's Advantage.

    If you're puzzling over how to reconcile that with Obama's high approval ratings, bear in mind that the Republicans have the House and Senate...
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    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MTimT said:

    Is Vince D a regular poster? If so, it would be great to have his usual nom de plume.

    Thanks, Vince for the header. I think anyone who makes the effort to support this site through contributions to the headers deserves regular posters' gratitude.

    However, when you say that Clinton is ahead in key states such as California and New York, two of the bluest of blue states, it makes me wonder if you know anything about US politics. And who, other than Trump, would be second favorite if Hillary is the current bookies' favorite?

    Glad you said that.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited August 2016
    nunu said:

    weejonnie said:

    Looking at the "Direction Country is Going poll on RCP"

    Wrong Track +45!

    That may not necessarily be to Mrs Clinton's Advantage.

    Have u seen the disapproval ratings of Congress?
    It would be amusing if Trump Gained the Presidency and the Democrats Gained the Senate.

    Mind you some of the Congressional disapproval could be Republicans complaining that the Republicans aren't doing enough to counter Obama.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Charles said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    eek said:



    Sadly the world in which children don't get farmed out requires far tighter restrictions on bank lending and house prices that aren't 5-10 times a families income...

    There seems to be a vicious cycle of:

    1. Desire to go out to work as it's more fun than being at home/baby brain
    2. Being paid to childmind has become riven with costs that push prices way up
    3. So going out to work barely covers the rising costs of paying someone else
    4. Two incomes are required for property/lifestyle sustaining reasons
    5. Kids are farmed out because of 1-4.

    And now we hear a great deal about childhood depression/anxiety/lack of self worth et al. I can't help feeling it's not a coincidence. And bugger all to do with Twitter or Facebook. That just amplifies it.
    There was an attempt by the Tories in the coalition to reduce the cost of child care by increasing the number of kids a childminder could look after (I think from 3 to 4).

    The LibDems for all "won't someone think if the children" and nixed the idea. because I guess they don't struggle with living costs.
    So we're simultaneously arguing that putting kids in nursery is bad for kids, but reducing the quality of the provision is fine

    The proposal to increase the childcare ratios went against all expert advice and evidence, though I appreciate that sort of thing is no longer in fashion.
    I think the point you are not able to grasp is that life is about the 'best fit' not 'I want it all paid by someone else'. It's probably best for young children to have a parent at home most of the time. where that is not possible moderately priced childcare with a mildly increased ratio is the next best fit. Deal with it.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MaxPB said:

    @MaxPB

    "It takes me a few minutes to fillet and skin fish, he does it for me and will have both fillets done in under 20 seconds. You won't get that at any supermarket."

    Point of order, Mr. Max. The fish counter at Tescos in Burgess Hill will provide exactly that sort of service. Their fish counter is the best bit of the whole shop which now otherwise only use for household cleaning products.

    For Grocery shopping Herself will alternate between Sainsbury's and Tescos depending what she wants (Sicilian Lemonade is a full £1 dearer in Sainsbury's!) for bulk items and Aldi and Waitrose for "nice" things. Veg, meat, bread and booze we get from independent shops in the Village.

    The Tesco near me doesn't do that, neither does the Waitrose. However, even if they did id prefer the fishmonger, he's a nice fellow and an independent as well. Needs the support. He says that the gentrification of Shepherd's Bush has taken him from near bankruptcy to taking on an apprentice in the last few years. Glad to see some positives from it, I fear that soon the landlord will catch on and price him out though.
    I am pleased to hear that you are supporting a local independent shop, Mr. Max, I wish more people did. We get our veg from the surviving village greengrocer (the other one got priced out by the landlord when the shop lease came up for renewal). To be honest the quality is probably not as good as we could get from the supermarkets, but the difference is not enough to make us change from our policy of supporting local shops whenever we can.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I know...there numbers are OK, where as Tescos is struggling. I think what I am saying is I don't really get what it is they are doing right.

    Morrisons is a s##t show of a place, Asda are like a really shitty Walmart.

    But Sainsbury's, the stores aren't a particularly nice experience, certainly not what you would expect from upper middle class type outlet and they aren't cheap and they don't stock particular exotic stuff.

    Cheaper than Waitrose/M&S, better than Tesco/Asda/Morrison's. I think that's a decent market to claim. The squeezed middle as someone once called it...
    I guess so. As what I would think is their target market, I can never find a good reason to shop there, but perhaps thats just me.
    I do most of my shopping in Waitrose as it is the nearest supermarket for me, but if I'm at my parents place then I'll go to Sainsbury's. I'd say they prices in waitrose are a solid 10-15% higher, a lot of the tome the quality premium isn't worth it for Waitrose. I find for fresh meat the Sainsbury's counter is better value, but for veg the quality in Waitrose is worth paying the premium. Though, I have to say recently I've been getting my veg from a local Asian shop and he is cheaper and better than both of them, there isn't a decent non-halal butcher near me so I stick to Waitrose for meat. The fishmonger in Shepherds Bush is second to none though. Amazing quality, prices, freshness and service. It takes me a few minutes to fillet and skin fish, he does it for me and will have both fillets done in under 20 seconds. You won't get that at any supermarket.
    If one doesn't have moral objections to buying it, I've generally found the quality of halal meat to be very good.
    I object so strongly to Halal that I'd rather eat pre-stunned cat burgers.
    Isn't that what Asda own brand burgers are made from?
    It was most enlightening and entertaining how sanguine the vast majority of the population were about Findus Dobbin Lasagne.

    I still haven't worked out why. Those of us who've ordered horse clearly aren't bothered - even though we've mucked them out when we got home. Those who've outgrown the My Little Pony phase and never seen live horseflesh up close another...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    F1: all the usual Friday caveats but Force India have had a better day than Ferrari today.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Scott_P said:

    @theobertram: Who do over-65s think will make best PM?
    - May: 72%
    - Don't know: 20%
    - Corbyn: 8%
    Source: @YouGov https://t.co/2sLtbWDSIS

    Ooooh - that's gotta hurt!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    Patrick said:

    The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.

    Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.
    Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....

    Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.
    And, although this is never mentioned AFAICS - people should buy goods and services from local shops so that the money stays longer in the community. Other than the South-East, money is constantly leached from communities as they spend it in Lidl, Morrisons, Asda, Amazon, etc - and in the worst case has to be replenished in the form of tax credits and benefits from central Government. (One of the many reasons why the North is so poor.)
    Do people in the south east all shop at the local farmers' market for their weekly shop or something ?
    Lidl and Aldi have a strong middle class customer base now- I see they are taking them from the big four.
    The middle class do a big shop at Sainsburys or Tesco and look for bargains at Aldi and Lidl or treats at M & S and Waitrose
    The entire class?

    I used to be in retail consulting. The rise of the luxury and discounters happened whilst I was in London. The mid market is losing out to both because by doing half your shop in the discounters you can do the other half in Waitrose/M&S - even Selfridges.

    Oh, and choice is the key - the commonality between discounters and luxury retailers is that there are not 640 choices for a tin of beans, just 1 or 2 - 3 at a push. We don't have time for choosing anymore...
    Just to make me feel really old, I used to shop for my mum back in the 70s.

    We'd a grocers next door and I'd ask for a tin of peas - as I stood behind the long counter - and handed one. Same for whatever potatoes were in season - so made crap chips or mash as they were horribly waxy. The notion of *choice* was entirely alien. One made meals from what was available - not the other way round.

    The fish van came on a Friday for an hour. I still marvel at what we can buy nowadays.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.
    Seriously?! In relation to the conference (which I could believe - security apart, we've heard very little and I could well imagine that there's a lot more that's a long way behind where it should be), or in relation to the party at large?
    In relation to the party at large. There is zero trust. A great deal of anger. There is no meaningful communication, to the extent that even the most objective facts are questioned. Conspiracies abound. There are two groups shouting across each other. Individuals who dare to get in the middle or cross between sides get squashed.

    It should burn itself out, but shows no sign of doing so. I guess it was like this in the 80s, but it's not something I have seen anywhere else (including some pretty tricky work situations).

    There is no Labour party right now. On the plus side, if someone does win and solve this - they will be a formidable candidate.
    AIR, the state of the Labour Party is a lot worse now than it was in the 80’s.

    Without doubt. But in the end this is a battle the hard left will lose, as most Labour members do want a Labour government. Sadly, it means gifting a very right wing Tory government the next election - and perhaps the one after that too - but the hard left can only ever end up disappointing. What's more, the last few weeks have shown just how piss poor a leader Corbyn is - he can't debate, he won't engage, he is a liar, he has actively undermined a number of his front bench appointees (mostly women), he has given far too much power to the deeply divisive John McDonnell and his PR operation is a shambles. A lot of Corbynistas know this to be the case now, but are still seething with anger at the PLP, so Jezza is a shoo-in to win. That anger will subside soon enough. Smith is taking one for the team, but the team is learning a lot in the meantime.

    This is not a very right wing Tory government.

    Nor was the last.
    Its the most right wing government ever ! As we are told every time the Tories are elected.Prehaos the public are right wing nutters.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Animal_pb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I know...there numbers are OK, where as Tescos is struggling. I think what I am saying is I don't really get what it is they are doing right.

    Morrisons is a s##t show of a place, Asda are like a really shitty Walmart.

    But Sainsbury's, the stores aren't a particularly nice experience, certainly not what you would expect from upper middle class type outlet and they aren't cheap and they don't stock particular exotic stuff.

    Cheaper than Waitrose/M&S, better than Tesco/Asda/Morrison's. I think that's a decent market to claim. The squeezed middle as someone once called it...
    I guess so. As what I would think is their target market, I can never find a good reason to shop there, but perhaps thats just me.
    I do most of my shopping in Waitrose as it is the nearest supermarket for me, but if I'm at my parents place then I'll go to Sainsbury's. I'd say they prices in waitrose are a solid 10-15% higher, a lot of the tome the quality premium isn't worth it for Waitrose. I find for fresh meat the Sainsbury's counter is better value, but for veg the quality in Waitrose is worth paying the premium. Though, I have to say recently I've been getting my veg from a local Asian shop and he is cheaper and better than both of them, there isn't a decent non-halal butcher near me so I stick to Waitrose for meat. The fishmonger in Shepherds Bush is second to none though. Amazing quality, prices, freshness and service. It takes me a few minutes to fillet and skin fish, he does it for me and will have both fillets done in under 20 seconds. You won't get that at any supermarket.
    If one doesn't have moral objections to buying it, I've generally found the quality of halal meat to be very good.
    Moral objections for me, plus no pork.
    ...just to toss another one into the mix, I find the refreshingly old-fashioned butchers' section at the local Costco rather better than Waitrose, for meat.
    Costco is very good for lots of things.
    Especially for massive Nandos sauce bottles.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    PlatoSaid said:



    Just to make me feel really old, I used to shop for my mum back in the 70s.

    We'd a grocers next door and I'd ask for a tin of peas - as I stood behind the long counter - and handed one. Same for whatever potatoes were in season - so made crap chips or mash as they were horribly waxy. The notion of *choice* was entirely alien. One made meals from what was available - not the other way round.

    The fish van came on a Friday for an hour. I still marvel at what we can buy nowadays.

    Indeed, new potato season meant no roast potatoes in our household - just boiled then tossed with butter and mint. Quite like that now, hated it then as I loved roast spuds so much.

    Food was generally dictated by both what was in season and what was cheap (highly correlated back then) and green grocery shopping was often done 15 minutes before close on Saturday when merchants were desperate to offload what would rot over Sunday.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    @theobertram: Who do over-65s think will make best PM?
    - May: 72%
    - Don't know: 20%
    - Corbyn: 8%
    Source: @YouGov https://t.co/2sLtbWDSIS

    Ooooh - that's gotta hurt!

    I presume you mean that May must feel slighted that 20% don't know that she'd be better?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    I know he's a parody but scary thing is most Corbynistas would actually believe this:

    Lyuben Vachkov ‏@VLubev
    @Markgstevens @stuart180 @britainelects I voted Green in 2015. I'm a swing voter... Lab need to win me and they have under Corbyn
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:



    Given the average house price is now over £200k and the average salary is £27k and you can normally get a maximum mortgage of 4 times salary, if only one partner in a couple works we become a nation of renters!

    You are talking about a different point, Mr. Hyfud, but since you bring it up. A young couple both on the median wage would be unlikely in this day an age to get a mortgage for an average house. Like the young couple up the road from me (who have enough for a deposit and a currently paying £1300 a month rent) the bank would ask them all the questions about their out-goings and then refuse to lend on the basis that they can't afford the repayments despite that they would be far less than the £1300 a month they are paying.
    At the time of the crash (2007/8) I remember seeing figures in reputable publications suggesting that house prices would have to fall by about 50% to return to long term trend. Which would have been to the long term good of all, especially if it could have been managed gently. Instead HMG to, I suspect, protect the banks (whose reckless lending had stoked the price bubble) decided to reinflate the housing market. We are now in a crazy position where, especially for the young, accumulation of wealth through saving is impossible, pensions are knackered, house ownership is out of the reach of most who don't have parents who can chip in. And all this after six years of a Conservative or Conservative-led government.
    At the moment though mortgages are "artificially cheap" due to the very low interest rates. If interest rates head back to proper historical norms of ~4% then that might knock some sense into the housing market.
    IIRC when we'd got our first mortgage in 1988 - it was 95% and £51500 over 25yrs endowment. One bedroom flat/second floor in Haywards Heath.

    We paid £900pcm at one point due to the massive interest rate hikes. We earned £50k between us with ludicrous OT to make up the difference. I can't recall either of us getting home before 2030 or both not working at the weekend just to afford eating. I even sold my 18th birthday present when we couldn't write another bouncy £50 cheque card for food.

    Mortgage rates are absurd - but the new normal. No wonder the market is out of control.
    I remember that time. Unluckily for us, that was just before the kids arrived on the scene, and I recall that at its peak, our mortgage payment on a 50 grand 3 bed semi was 910 quid, and that month my take home was 902! I have never been so stressed and worried. I was in my early 20s, and it almost put me off being a grown up!.
    I work with people in their mid 30s now who have 200 grand mortgages and who are buying to let as well. I admire them for their bravery, but am happy not to keep up with them!
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