politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How post BREXIT the bookmakers are looking WH2016
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Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
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We might, but the preliminary trade numbers will as always be heavily revised later on and may not even get the direction of change right. I wouldn't read too much into them.rcs1000 said:
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
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Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.0 -
Of course we don't know anything for certain yet but that is the nature of ever making predictions as opposed to looking back historically. Given what we know of economic theory and the evidence its boosted exports, ceteris paribus, it should have boosted the trade balance.rcs1000 said:
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.0 -
Oil prices fell in July and didn't recover until last week. That should have helped our trade balance for the current quarter and they are just one bad OPEC meeting from falling again, given that Iran, Libya and Iraq are all looking to boost production and the Saudis are unwilling to lower theirs low oil prices look set to continue.rcs1000 said:
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.
I'd say the bigger issue for imports is semi-manufactured goods from Europe, those will have gone up in price by 10% and import substitution for semi-manufactured goods is not easy.0 -
I've repeated ad nauseam that Panglossian Brexiteers (paging Angela Leadsom!) are as irritating as doom-mongering Remainers.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
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I'm sticking to my self-description of 'grim-dark Brexiteer' and see no reason to change that. The interesting numbers are the CAD, FDI numbers and so forth and we won't see the trend settled on those for many months.0 -
I pay an effective marginal rate of 69% (42 Tax & NI, 9 Student Loan, 18 Child Benefit withdrawal) so I chuck as much as I can into my pensionSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
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Interesting thread, Vince D - what's your PB name?0
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Is the dataset the whole of those areas or just the subset of that population which is relevant to you?eek said:
Not when your dataset is part of the north east, manchester city council and part of the poshest part of the home counties.. its why I'm fairly happy that my dataset is varied enough....Philip_Thompson said:
Surely if you worked in that area then by default your experience is not representative of the rest of the country? Anyone who works in an industry naturally experiences their customers/clients and not those who are nearby but unrelated.eek said:
If that figure is actully conceptions and not births then the parts of the country I used to estimate my figures are very unlucky compared to the rest of the country. Hence I suspect the use of conception is wrong there and its live births...OldKingCole said:
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.
Ie is it comprehensive data for those regions or is it extrapolating from anecdotal evidence (which is by nature distorted)?0 -
Dr. Prasannan, Vin Diesel, surely?0
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That child benefit withdrawal I'm pretty sure isn't part of the tax calculation...not_on_fire said:
I pay an effective marginal rate of 69% (42 Tax & NI, 9 Student Loan, 18 Child Benefit withdrawal) so I chuck as much as I can into my pensionSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
Can I include it too (I have no kids)0 -
IIRC from around 2000 the North East was an area where teenage pregnancy tended to result in a birth.eek said:
Not when your dataset is part of the north east, manchester city council and part of the poshest part of the home counties.. its why I'm fairly happy that my dataset is varied enough....Philip_Thompson said:
Surely if you worked in that area then by default your experience is not representative of the rest of the country? Anyone who works in an industry naturally experiences their customers/clients and not those who are nearby but unrelated.eek said:
If that figure is actully conceptions and not births then the parts of the country I used to estimate my figures are very unlucky compared to the rest of the country. Hence I suspect the use of conception is wrong there and its live births...OldKingCole said:
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.
The "poshest part of the home counties” would, I would have expected had quite a low rate of “conversion”. Assuming the girls ever got anywhere where figures might be collected.0 -
It was Gordon’s desperate attempt to win the middle ground in the run up to the election, however he missed the mark as with everything else he touched and ended up using the rhetoric of the far right.PlatoSaid said:
That period of Gordon's reign was very peculiar. He came over all BNP with British Jobs 4 British Workers too.MaxPB said:
They obviously all got scared of Brown's gulags for slags and started using contraception!rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
http://order-order.com/2009/09/29/exclusive-browns-gulags-for-slags-policy-taken-from-bnp/0 -
Lots of assumptions there.MaxPB said:
Oil prices fell in July and didn't recover until last week. That should have helped our trade balance for the current quarter and they are just one bad OPEC meeting from falling again, given that Iran, Libya and Iraq are all looking to boost production and the Saudis are unwilling to lower theirs low oil prices look set to continue.rcs1000 said:
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.
I'd say the bigger issue for imports is semi-manufactured goods from Europe, those will have gone up in price by 10% and import substitution for semi-manufactured goods is not easy.0 -
Child benefit withdrawal is listed on a tax charge on the HMRC self-assessment form. Of course, if you're willing to pay an additional 18% marginal rate of tax I'm sure HM Treasury will be happy to assist...Pulpstar said:
That child benefit withdrawal I'm pretty sure isn't part of the tax calculation...not_on_fire said:
I pay an effective marginal rate of 69% (42 Tax & NI, 9 Student Loan, 18 Child Benefit withdrawal) so I chuck as much as I can into my pensionSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
Can I include it too (I have no kids)0 -
The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.0
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Its more that if I extrapolate the data in any shape or form and that figure is conceptions it just doesn't make sense given the number of secondary school age parents I know of and the population of those areas...Philip_Thompson said:
Is the dataset the whole of those areas or just the subset of that population which is relevant to you?
Ie is it comprehensive data for those regions or is it extrapolating from anecdotal evidence (which is by nature distorted)?
It may be that I'm truely over estimating the figures but even if I half / third them if the headline figure is number of conceptions it doesn't make sense...0 -
F1: Alonso may need a new engine.0
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Golly, Charles - Perry Como! I'm more Val Doonican in a Men In V-Neck Pink Jumper stakes.Charles said:
No one can really beat Perry Como at this game so not much point in trying.ThreeQuidder said:
TexasJackW said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
CRAP - California Rhode island Alaska PennsylvaniaTheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Utah
Montana
Pennsylvania
What did Delaware?
She wore a brand New Jersey
And when Calla phone us?
Just to say how ai ya?
And did Missy sippy
Some of your mini-soda?
Etc etc0 -
Vanilla for youSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
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Never seen one of those forms...not_on_fire said:
Child benefit withdrawal is listed on a tax charge on the HMRC self-assessment form. Of course, if you're willing to pay an additional 18% marginal rate of tax I'm sure HM Treasury will be happy to assist...Pulpstar said:
That child benefit withdrawal I'm pretty sure isn't part of the tax calculation...not_on_fire said:
I pay an effective marginal rate of 69% (42 Tax & NI, 9 Student Loan, 18 Child Benefit withdrawal) so I chuck as much as I can into my pensionSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
Can I include it too (I have no kids)0 -
It's a typo. It should read as Vince C(able)Sunil_Prasannan said:Interesting thread, Vince D - what's your PB name?
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Inauguring the start of my new post-children state, I went for a celebratory lunch (we were celebrating many things not just my relative freedom) yesterday. We started at 12:30 and finished at around 11:30 pm.
It was a very enjoyable time. I am - however - feeling a touch fragile today.
It would be nice if there were no sudden movements, loud noises or other unexpected events today please, No cretinous Labour media storms, no flounces by Brexiteers, etc.
Thank you.0 -
You mean like Farage's OTT to Obama and BREXIT ....PlatoSaid said:
I'm thinking that Trump will do it - I really am. The totally OTT reaction of HRC to Farage confirmed it for me.AndyJS said:Trump doesn't need Florida. He can win with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the Rust Belt strategy as Michael Moore has named it.
Trump has to dramatically change the dynamics of the race. The debates offers his last and best opportunity to do so. Up against a combative and confident women what could possibly go wrong for the taciturn and demur Trumpster ....0 -
'lunch'Cyclefree said:Inauguring the start of my new post-children state, I went for a celebratory lunch (we were celebrating many things not just my relative freedom) yesterday. We started at 12:30 and finished at around 11:30 pm.
It was a very enjoyable time. I am - however - feeling a touch fragile today.
It would be nice if there were no sudden movements, loud noises or other unexpected events today please, No cretinous Labour media storms, no flounces by Brexiteers, etc.
Thank you.0 -
A shy Trump vote amongst Blacks is quite possible. And with Asians/Hispanics to a lesser degree.HYUFD said:
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.
The DNVers are another demographic that Obama exploited blacks first time around here - now it's poor whites instead.0 -
Ah yes, not bad thanks. Did reply to you before but will do so again this afternoon.Pulpstar said:
Vanilla for youSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
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It really depends what lurks in Trump's tax return.OldKingCole said:I suspect the non-availability of Trumps tax returns will continue to rumble on. Whether it’s going to demotivate any supporters of course is highly questionable.
Rather depends, I suppose, on how Clinton uses that non-availability. If he’s got nothing to hide .......
1) he pays less tax than Warren Buffett's secretary -- probably factored in; voters might not like it but they all kind of suspect rich people have fancy accountants to fiddle their taxes
2) he is not as rich as he says -- voters won't care but future investors might (and hasn't he previously sued people for saying he's not a billionaire? Can they appeal?)
3) he is in bed with the mafia -- he rebuilt half of New York so he must have been buying concrete somewhere -- probably priced in but poorer (or less "sophisticated") supporters may object
4) his co-investors in construction projects are Russian -- that might be a very big problem in a country where supplying pencils to kindergartens is a matter of national security. But would it show on his tax returns?0 -
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Ha ha. That sounds like my kind of 'lunch', glad you're enjoying your freedom!Cyclefree said:Inauguring the start of my new post-children state, I went for a celebratory lunch (we were celebrating many things not just my relative freedom) yesterday. We started at 12:30 and finished at around 11:30 pm.
It was a very enjoyable time. I am - however - feeling a touch fragile today.
It would be nice if there were no sudden movements, loud noises or other unexpected events today please, No cretinous Labour media storms, no flounces by Brexiteers, etc.
Thank you.0 -
"Not afraid of the dark, are you?"Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Prasannan, Vin Diesel, surely?
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If Trump wins, will Farage be seen as the most powerful Western politician in 2016?
F1: Alonso's getting a different engine. They can go for a new one and take a penalty, or an old one and escape it.
I'd guess they'll go for a new one.
He may line up next to Hamilton.0 -
There probably goes £5 on my podium finish bet...Morris_Dancer said:F1: Alonso may need a new engine.
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Reminds of my first day of retirement! Enjoy!!!Sandpit said:
Ha ha. That sounds like my kind of 'lunch', glad you're enjoying your freedom!Cyclefree said:Inauguring the start of my new post-children state, I went for a celebratory lunch (we were celebrating many things not just my relative freedom) yesterday. We started at 12:30 and finished at around 11:30 pm.
It was a very enjoyable time. I am - however - feeling a touch fragile today.
It would be nice if there were no sudden movements, loud noises or other unexpected events today please, No cretinous Labour media storms, no flounces by Brexiteers, etc.
Thank you.0 -
Care to point them out?runnymede said:
Lots of assumptions there.MaxPB said:
Oil prices fell in July and didn't recover until last week. That should have helped our trade balance for the current quarter and they are just one bad OPEC meeting from falling again, given that Iran, Libya and Iraq are all looking to boost production and the Saudis are unwilling to lower theirs low oil prices look set to continue.rcs1000 said:
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.
I'd say the bigger issue for imports is semi-manufactured goods from Europe, those will have gone up in price by 10% and import substitution for semi-manufactured goods is not easy.0 -
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/503309/sa100_2016.pdfPulpstar said:
Never seen one of those forms...not_on_fire said:
Child benefit withdrawal is listed on a tax charge on the HMRC self-assessment form. Of course, if you're willing to pay an additional 18% marginal rate of tax I'm sure HM Treasury will be happy to assist...Pulpstar said:
That child benefit withdrawal I'm pretty sure isn't part of the tax calculation...not_on_fire said:
I pay an effective marginal rate of 69% (42 Tax & NI, 9 Student Loan, 18 Child Benefit withdrawal) so I chuck as much as I can into my pensionSandpit said:
Employer contributions and the tax relief are the only things keeping pensions running at the moment. The tax relief pot limits are testing that with the older, higher income earners though - at exactly the time they should be piling every spare penny into their pensions.Pulpstar said:@Sandpit My employer matches my contributions so even breaking even on my money is worthwhile with the pension, nevertheless it was a bit worrying to see !
Can I include it too (I have no kids)
Page 50 -
In 08/12 we were told that WWC would flock to the polls to deny Obama - the "Bradley Effect". It never happened. Now they will surge against Clinton ????PlatoSaid said:A shy Trump vote amongst Blacks is quite possible. And with Asians/Hispanics to a lesser degree.
The DNVers are another demographic that Obama exploited blacks first time around here - now it's poor whites instead.
A shy black vote for Trump will certainly occur. They will shy against the Donald in their millions.0 -
Mr. Eek, possibly. He might go for an old engine.
That said, I hope your odds were long. Even if the upgrades are all super, that leaves Rosberg, Ferrari and Red Bull with which to contend.
Both Vettel and Hamilton sound less than enthusiastic about next year's regulations/tyres. However, the racing might be closer, even if stupid tyre management is still an issue.0 -
The best thing is, since he wont release any returns, it can be any or all of these. All we know is that he is definitely hiding something...DecrepitJohnL said:
It really depends what lurks in Trump's tax return.OldKingCole said:I suspect the non-availability of Trumps tax returns will continue to rumble on. Whether it’s going to demotivate any supporters of course is highly questionable.
Rather depends, I suppose, on how Clinton uses that non-availability. If he’s got nothing to hide .......
1) he pays less tax than Warren Buffett's secretary -- probably factored in; voters might not like it but they all kind of suspect rich people have fancy accountants to fiddle their taxes
2) he is not as rich as he says -- voters won't care but future investors might (and hasn't he previously sued people for saying he's not a billionaire? Can they appeal?)
3) he is in bed with the mafia -- he rebuilt half of New York so he must have been buying concrete somewhere -- probably priced in but poorer (or less "sophisticated") supporters may object
4) his co-investors in construction projects are Russian -- that might be a very big problem in a country where supplying pencils to kindergartens is a matter of national security. But would it show on his tax returns?0 -
Does anyone know the US laws on benefit-in-kind payment to employees and directors?DecrepitJohnL said:
It really depends what lurks in Trump's tax return.OldKingCole said:I suspect the non-availability of Trumps tax returns will continue to rumble on. Whether it’s going to demotivate any supporters of course is highly questionable.
Rather depends, I suppose, on how Clinton uses that non-availability. If he’s got nothing to hide .......
1) he pays less tax than Warren Buffett's secretary -- probably factored in; voters might not like it but they all kind of suspect rich people have fancy accountants to fiddle their taxes
2) he is not as rich as he says -- voters won't care but future investors might (and hasn't he previously sued people for saying he's not a billionaire? Can they appeal?)
3) he is in bed with the mafia -- he rebuilt half of New York so he must have been buying concrete somewhere -- probably priced in but poorer (or less "sophisticated") supporters may object
4) his co-investors in construction projects are Russian -- that might be a very big problem in a country where supplying pencils to kindergartens is a matter of national security. But would it show on his tax returns?
It's quite possible that all his apartments, houses, planes, cars etc are company assets, and that his personal income is a nominal salary and loads of dividends paid out to a trust company in the names of his wife and children.
This would appear unconventional to a layman but is actually quite normal among property guys, with several companies - he's not releasing his tax return because of how small the numbers are, rather than how big they are.0 -
A shy black vote for Racist Donald?JackW said:
In 08/12 we were told that WWC would flock to the polls to deny Obama - the "Bradley Effect". It never happened. Now they will surge against Clinton ????PlatoSaid said:A shy Trump vote amongst Blacks is quite possible. And with Asians/Hispanics to a lesser degree.
The DNVers are another demographic that Obama exploited blacks first time around here - now it's poor whites instead.
A shy black vote for Trump will certainly occur. They will shy against the Donald in their millions.
ha ha ha ha ha ha0 -
I suspect that while you are right in that ordinary people think the rich fiddle their taxes..... as they do here ......... there will be an element of dgree. HRC (and Bill) have disclosed their tax returns for years. A percentage can be established. If Trump pays a lot lower percentage, or gives very little to charity ..... quite a big thing, I understand in the US, especially when he says he does, then it might well cause some voters to stay away. I doubt they’ll vote for Hilary, but they won’t vote for Trump.DecrepitJohnL said:
It really depends what lurks in Trump's tax return.OldKingCole said:I suspect the non-availability of Trumps tax returns will continue to rumble on. Whether it’s going to demotivate any supporters of course is highly questionable.
Rather depends, I suppose, on how Clinton uses that non-availability. If he’s got nothing to hide .......
1) he pays less tax than Warren Buffett's secretary -- probably factored in; voters might not like it but they all kind of suspect rich people have fancy accountants to fiddle their taxes
2) he is not as rich as he says -- voters won't care but future investors might (and hasn't he previously sued people for saying he's not a billionaire? Can they appeal?)
3) he is in bed with the mafia -- he rebuilt half of New York so he must have been buying concrete somewhere -- probably priced in but poorer (or less "sophisticated") supporters may object
4) his co-investors in construction projects are Russian -- that might be a very big problem in a country where supplying pencils to kindergartens is a matter of national security. But would it show on his tax returns?
And he needs the votes.0 -
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
You are letting your personal preference for Trump blind yourself to reality. Trump's favourability numbers are appalling and he is miles behind in Pennsylvania. If there is an upset it will be that Clinton wins in a landslide rather than simply a comfortable victory.Sunil_Prasannan said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-making-more-states-competitive-red-states/0 -
It was sky bet's 100 to 1. That become 300 to 1 when I threw the £10 free bets I got. 300 to 1 on Alonso and Button getting the podium is I think decent enough odds.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eek, possibly. He might go for an old engine.
That said, I hope your odds were long. Even if the upgrades are all super, that leaves Rosberg, Ferrari and Red Bull with which to contend.
Both Vettel and Hamilton sound less than enthusiastic about next year's regulations/tyres. However, the racing might be closer, even if stupid tyre management is still an issue.
I would agree that there isn't much chance but if they were starting in the top 10 or so it was decent odds..0 -
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Mr. Eek, at those odds, indeed. I backed McLaren to top score in Monaco [which sounds stupid now, but a collision between 2 cars ahead actually would've seen it come off].0
-
Honda are bloody useless. Bring a new engine and it doesn't bloody work.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eek, possibly. He might go for an old engine.
That said, I hope your odds were long. Even if the upgrades are all super, that leaves Rosberg, Ferrari and Red Bull with which to contend.
Both Vettel and Hamilton sound less than enthusiastic about next year's regulations/tyres. However, the racing might be closer, even if stupid tyre management is still an issue.0 -
Blimey. What a dump !PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html
Even if it was spruced up that bathroom colour scheme is hideous :E0 -
British coastline probably more dangerous than the med tbh (Cooler & more vigourous tides/waves)Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Mr. Max, being surprised a new Honda engine is unreliable is like being surprised Corbyn's PR team has made a mistake.0
-
They seemed to have beaten the reliability issues this season. 300/1 each way for Alonso to win doesnt look so clever this morning. Hopefully Honda will be able to fix this one rather than break in a new one or use an old one.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, being surprised a new Honda engine is unreliable is like being surprised Corbyn's PR team has made a mistake.
0 -
There could be something in that. No quad bike crashes reported so far this year.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Good Lord, Ms Cyclefree's been on the razzle again, that's twice in a week, isn't it?0
-
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Mr. Max, indeed, but then, it took Mercedes a while to become reliable.
In Schumacher's last season he would have been leading the title race after around seven races but for multiple DNFs (one was his fault, colliding with Senna, the others, about five, or something equally daft, were reliability issues).
This season is still a building season. They need it sorted in 2017, though.
As an aside, I suggested selling Alonso at 53 on the spreads. Trying to keep track of how that and the other suggestions go, in preparation for potential bets next year.0 -
Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members0 -
Is it short lived when you're competing for contracts in €/$ though on a long term basis ?foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
People on holiday in the UK don't drive mopeds drunk with no helmet on either.MaxPB said:
There could be something in that. No quad bike crashes reported so far this year.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:Casino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
@Mortimer
'They're booming because some people are more willing to deprive others of a home of their own than start/invest in a business.
Generation Boom seem to think that they're entitled to a return on their money. They're not.'
They're booming because Gordon Brown trashed their pensions, what else are they supposed to do to provide for their retirement ?
The fact that New Labour also presided over the lowest council house building since the second world war combined with a policy of mass immigration ensured that we ended up with this incredible mess.0 -
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...0 -
The slightly scary thing is that things are worse than they appear in the press.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems to be not so much splitting as falling apart:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/labour-conference-in-peril-g4s-will-not-provide-security
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/25/john-mcdonnell-accuses-labour-committee-of-rigged-purge-of-members0 -
Yes, with the engine development restrictions being lifted this winter Honda will make up all the ground on Mercedes currebr performance at least. In aero McLaren are looking quite handy, probably third behind Mercedes and Red Bull now, and it is their proposals which were taken forwards for 2017 aero rather than Mercedes, so they should have a small headstart there as well.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, indeed, but then, it took Mercedes a while to become reliable.
In Schumacher's last season he would have been leading the title race after around seven races but for multiple DNFs (one was his fault, colliding with Senna, the others, about five, or something equally daft, were reliability issues).
This season is still a building season. They need it sorted in 2017, though.
As an aside, I suggested selling Alonso at 53 on the spreads. Trying to keep track of how that and the other suggestions go, in preparation for potential bets next year.
The new head of Honda engine development, Hasegawa, is interesting. In an interview he said that Honda have identified the weaknesses in their engine, but making up the difference under the current token system isn't possible so they are essentially making do with minor increases this season. He also said that copying Mercedes isn't enough and that they are working on concepts which they think no one else is working on so they can one day beat Mercedes performance while the other two engine developers will only ever be able to match the Mercedes performance by copying them.0 -
Mr. Gin, harder for that to make a difference in a General Election than a referendum, though, because in the latter all votes are equal, whereas in the former you need the votes in the right places.0
-
Yeah but the private schools get far longer holidays due to the term time hothousing. So more weeks of childcare to fund...Casino_Royale said:
To which my answer would be round objects.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The alternative is that schools double their salary bill for two shifts of teachers.Casino_Royale said:
The real scandal is why state schools all turn out at 3pm. They haven't yet caught up with the 21st Century and the fact women now want to have careers as well.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The net salary gain minus childcare is less than £400 for most of them. That is before commuting costs, clothes for work, meals at wor, petrol to drive round to the child minder, more expensive supermarket food than food prepared at home from scratch.OldKingCole said:
But if one of them stopped work the net effect would be to reduce the income by more than the childcare saving.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Edited for FFS.
Basically these women are paying to work and the family would be financially better off and have a vastly better quality of life if they were not working.
If you're serious about the gender pay gap, you can't act surprised at it when women (and it will always generally be women) have to work a 6-hour day rather than an 8-hour day to pick up their little mites.
Paying for a childminder to cover the 3pm-5.30pm gap might make the headline figures look better but the net effect is just the same.
Schools are there to educate. Taking the kids off the parents hands is an accidental by product.
Also ask any parent or teacher what a primary school kids concentration in late afternoon and you get an answer as to why they are booted out at 3.30
I went to private school and it was always a full day.0 -
Sand by the seashore isn’t a “fixed” though; things can change.PlatoSaid said:
Could be. TBH, it seems very unusual for 2 fit young men to get stuck in quicksand - and for another three fit young men to also drown trying to pull them out. It's not particularly known for quicksand either - though like any beach, you can get sucked down from time to time. There's no mud in Camber either - so it's not like Morecambe or WSMare that have had problems.Sandpit said:
Just a thought, but with more people taking holidays in the UK his summer, are these drowning stories just replacing the usual summer misadventures abroad - falling from balconies and drowning in pools in Majorca?PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html0 -
Mr. Max, agree on McLaren's aero performance. Bad news for Ferrari.
Hasegawa is right. If you copy, you're always behind.0 -
That's good to hear. I reckon McLaren will be chasing podium finishes next year, do you agree?MaxPB said:
Yes, with the engine development restrictions being lifted this winter Honda will make up all the ground on Mercedes currebr performance at least. In aero McLaren are looking quite handy, probably third behind Mercedes and Red Bull now, and it is their proposals which were taken forwards for 2017 aero rather than Mercedes, so they should have a small headstart there as well.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, indeed, but then, it took Mercedes a while to become reliable.
In Schumacher's last season he would have been leading the title race after around seven races but for multiple DNFs (one was his fault, colliding with Senna, the others, about five, or something equally daft, were reliability issues).
This season is still a building season. They need it sorted in 2017, though.
As an aside, I suggested selling Alonso at 53 on the spreads. Trying to keep track of how that and the other suggestions go, in preparation for potential bets next year.
The new head of Honda engine development, Hasegawa, is interesting. In an interview he said that Honda have identified the weaknesses in their engine, but making up the difference under the current token system isn't possible so they are essentially making do with minor increases this season. He also said that copying Mercedes isn't enough and that they are working on concepts which they think no one else is working on so they can one day beat Mercedes performance while the other two engine developers will only ever be able to match the Mercedes performance by copying them.
Mr Dancer has suggested a points spread bet on the Woking boys, that might be worth a look when the markets get going early next year.0 -
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Mr. Sandpit, whoa there, crazy horse!
I said I'd be looking at McLaren next year. I didn't say I'd be betting on them for certain and I offered no tip to that effect. I may well end up betting on them and I think value could be there, but it's very much wait and see.0 -
Why is the Y-Axis Dodgy? Is it the wrong numbers? You don't need to zero base line charts.John_M said:This was lost in the furore yesterday, while we're talking about the young:
https://twitter.com/mcdonnelljp/status/7690868517098659850 -
There is an element of no workplace pension being a pay cut as they covered life insurance etc.SimonStClare said:
I’d have thought Life/Household/Loss of Job insurance are prerequisite if there's a mortgage.IanB2 said:The utility bill figures are strikingly high, even allowing for some of the bigger ticket items like council tax. My guess is that 'insurance' includes life insurance payments for some of the families, as well as buildings, travel and car, and mobile phone bills include phones and calls for all the family.
But still nowhere near 1400 a month0 -
No import substitution...assumption of no price changes by exporters so 100% pass through from depreciation to import prices of semi-manufactures (probably pass through will be high-ish but I doubt 100% on past form)...even the 'boost to exports' isn't certain given we have no post-depreciation hard trade data and that such monthly data (in its initial vintages at least) is very unreliable as well.MaxPB said:
Care to point them out?runnymede said:
Lots of assumptions there.MaxPB said:
Oil prices fell in July and didn't recover until last week. That should have helped our trade balance for the current quarter and they are just one bad OPEC meeting from falling again, given that Iran, Libya and Iraq are all looking to boost production and the Saudis are unwilling to lower theirs low oil prices look set to continue.rcs1000 said:
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.
I'd say the bigger issue for imports is semi-manufactured goods from Europe, those will have gone up in price by 10% and import substitution for semi-manufactured goods is not easy.0 -
McDonnell thinks you can't enact global change through a parliamentary system. That sounds pretty Trot to me.PlatoSaid said:ICYMI Mr Aaronovitch on why Corbynistas aren't Trots.
"Jeremy Corbyn...attracts the earnest schoolkid inside some."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2016-08-25/comment/dont-be-fooled-these-corbynistas-are-not-trotskyites-mzb278kzn0 -
Whatever the news, it has to be bad if you are a REMAINER.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
Just look at the whingeing about our success at the Olympics - it beggars belief really.0 -
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
Yerbut you need polite young Romanians to run the bars!MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Yes - and I have another lunch today, though this should be shorter...........Richard_Nabavi said:Good Lord, Ms Cyclefree's been on the razzle again, that's twice in a week, isn't it?
This is what life should be about.
Don't blame me if some banker does something silly today.....0 -
I think that is a wind up account. Quite common on MSE, people would come into the Matched Betting forum and claim they'd lost thousands due to not Matched Betting correctly and try and make forum members feel bad.Pulpstar said:
What an absolute joke the British state has got itself into.0 -
I'll be adding around 1500 to the tourism deficit this year. Sorry about that.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
Last year I was in Devon though..0 -
And there’s a Bank Holiday on Monday. With sun forecast. Get the Pimms out!Cyclefree said:
Yes - and I have another lunch today, though this should be shorter...........Richard_Nabavi said:Good Lord, Ms Cyclefree's been on the razzle again, that's twice in a week, isn't it?
This is what life should be about.
Don't blame me if some banker does something silly today.....0 -
"I backed Man Utd at Hills, backed Man City at Ladbrokes and lost th lot due to a drawAlistair said:
I think that is a wind up account. Quite common on MSE, people would come into the Matched Betting forum and claim they'd lost thousands due to not Matched Betting correctly and try and make forum members feel bad.Pulpstar said:
What an absolute joke the British state has got itself into." ?
0 -
I could waste days reading awful TripAdvisor reviews. They're hilarious - and so wincingly honest/visual.Pulpstar said:
Blimey. What a dump !PlatoSaid said:
For anyone unfamiliar with Camber - it's had an ENORMOUS Pontin's holiday camp there for decades. It's a lovely beach, the only sandy one in ESx.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:rottenborough said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.
It's flat, and bar the odd accidental drowning - I don't recall it being known as anything other than perfectly safe as beaches go. This is tragic for the families concerned - but there's no lifeguarding because it's never really needed it.
If you ever felt your holiday accommodation was disappointing - this will cheer you right up
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1752567-d607436-Reviews-Pontin_s_Camber_Sands_Centre-Camber_Rye_East_Sussex_England.html
Even if it was spruced up that bathroom colour scheme is hideous :E0 -
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
You may be on to something with charitable contributions. Even the poorest Americans give to charity, or to their churches via tithes. Many (most?) American corporations have in-house charities. If Trump is seen as not "doing his bit" when supporters living in shacks in Nowheresville are voluntarily handing over 10 per cent, it could hurt him. And it would show (via tax relief) on his tax returns.OldKingCole said:
I suspect that while you are right in that ordinary people think the rich fiddle their taxes..... as they do here ......... there will be an element of dgree. HRC (and Bill) have disclosed their tax returns for years. A percentage can be established. If Trump pays a lot lower percentage, or gives very little to charity ..... quite a big thing, I understand in the US, especially when he says he does, then it might well cause some voters to stay away. I doubt they’ll vote for Hilary, but they won’t vote for Trump.DecrepitJohnL said:
It really depends what lurks in Trump's tax return.OldKingCole said:I suspect the non-availability of Trumps tax returns will continue to rumble on. Whether it’s going to demotivate any supporters of course is highly questionable.
Rather depends, I suppose, on how Clinton uses that non-availability. If he’s got nothing to hide .......
1) he pays less tax than Warren Buffett's secretary -- probably factored in; voters might not like it but they all kind of suspect rich people have fancy accountants to fiddle their taxes
2) he is not as rich as he says -- voters won't care but future investors might (and hasn't he previously sued people for saying he's not a billionaire? Can they appeal?)
3) he is in bed with the mafia -- he rebuilt half of New York so he must have been buying concrete somewhere -- probably priced in but poorer (or less "sophisticated") supporters may object
4) his co-investors in construction projects are Russian -- that might be a very big problem in a country where supplying pencils to kindergartens is a matter of national security. But would it show on his tax returns?
And he needs the votes.0 -
If they don't want to look after their own children, they shouldn't have them. Nobody forced them.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
No one is talking about compulsion but allowing parents to transfer their tax allowance to the non working partner would be rather better value for the taxpayer.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
I think there's a good argument for kids spending a lot of time with their mum, dad or other close relative when they're little, up to about 16 months, say, but after that interactions with a wider variety of people become more important. That's just my personal feeling though.not_on_fire said:
Massively depends on the parent. Don't see why they should be forced to stopped working if they don't want to.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Isnt that an argument for one of their parents to look after them in their early years rather than be dumped in a day orphanage supervised by disinterested 19 year olds on minimum wage?Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
I see Samuel Toombs has risen (lowered) to the challenge of disparaging the investment numbers.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
Related to the Referendum, on checking, I see that most Metropolitan Boroughs outside of Greater London voted Leave (27 to 8). Adding in cities and big towns like Plymouth, Nottingham, Stoke, Middlesborough, Luton, Hull, Portsmouth, Bournemouth, Milton Keynes, Warrington, that also voted Leave, there really wasn't a big urban/rural split in this Referendum.
0 -
Devaluation is a good way of managing one-off, short-term, economic shocks.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.0 -
The UK has an enormous mixed economy. We also have a double deficit. Boosting tourism isn't going to harm manufacturing or services. The Greek problem is that they don't also have strength in other areas - they only have tourism. Our trade deficit would be much much better if we could import less energy or export more of anything. Tourism is an easy route to the latter.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
Mr Morris, I reckon we are already way past that suggestion. Is purely damage limitation now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, broadcast media being generally pro-Remain has also affected expectations management. If they'd been even-handed after the vote, the current situation might look worse. Because the approach was generally negative (what have we done? etc), even treading water now looks good compared to what was expected.
Mr. Moses, jein. The Official Opposition not being able to hold its own conference doesn't exactly dispel the suggestion they're not exactly a government-in-waiting.
Mind you if the conference is cancelled then despite the concessions just think of all the availablefloor spacespare seats on Virgin trains0 -
I thought your point that the value of Sterling 'is treated by some as a virility symbol' was spot on. You posted that weeks ago and it sums up a certain attitude right up.Sean_F said:
Devaluation is a good way of managing one-off, short-term, economic shocks.JonathanD said:
lol very good. The Greek route of an economy based on devaluation and tourism it is then.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
0 -
I have to take issue with Middlesbrough being described as a 'big town'. Everyone knows it is 'a small town in Yorkshire'.Sean_F said:
I see Samuel Toombs has risen (lowered) to the challenge of disparaging the investment numbers.MaxPB said:
Ah the sneering Remoaner. Is it any wonder you lost. Fwiw, the UK has one of the largest tourism deficits in the world, outside of London every part of the UK has a tourism deficit, more tourism is exactly what the doctor ordered.JonathanD said:
Tourism is also one of those high productivity, high tech businesses that we really want to grow as well of course....foxinsoxuk said:
Devaluation is an easy but shortlived economic stimulus, and an addictive one.Patrick said:The UK is full to bursting with tourists at the moment. That must help the trade balance.
Related to the Referendum, on checking, I see that most Metropolitan Boroughs outside of Greater London voted Leave (27 to 8). Adding in cities and big towns like Plymouth, Nottingham, Stoke, Middlesborough, Luton, Hull, Portsmouth, Bournemouth, Milton Keynes, Warrington, that also voted Leave, there really wasn't a big urban/rural split in this Referendum.0 -
Is there another lesson from Brexit though? President Obama went down like a cup of cold sick when he lectured Britons on the perils of life at the back of the queue. Will Americans be more ready to listen to the equally foreign Farage? What does the editor of The Guardian think?PlatoSaid said:
That's my feeling. I find it most revealing that the commentators talkdown the potential of DNVWhites, but were full of delight over Obama 'inspiring' DNVBlacks.GIN1138 said:This is quite an interesting piece on Trump/Farage appealing to US "hillbilllies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/25/the-left-has-nothing-to-offer-voters-who-have-been-left-behind/
Could The Donald do what Brexit achieved, which is to bring people out to vote who haven't voted for years and years and years?
If so, as with Brexit, Pollsters won't be able to "find" these people... And yet another polling fiasco could be about to emerge...
TBH, I think PB is doing another Brexit - and too prone to lazy feelgood-about-myself stereotyping. HRC talking about Farage as 'far right' made me LOL. It was pathetic nonsense.0