politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How post BREXIT the bookmakers are looking WH2016
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"Better than gefilte, if seasoned properly."Charles said:
What was that famous Jesuit comment about 7 year olds?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
I think a lot of voters on both sides could be persuaded to stay at home - the two main candidates are terrible and the campaign itself is going to be relentlessly negative between Hillary and Donald. Johnson could conceivably take voters from both, but maybe more in the states that are safe one way or the otherMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I wonder if Johnson's a bigger risk to Clinton than Trump.
Trump has a lot of passionate supporters and opponents. Clinton seems to have a largely lukewarm, but broader, level of support. Might they be likelier to peel off for a third party chap?
Do we have any historical turnout numbers for the 'swing' states, in other words does all that advertising actually get people out to vote?0 -
Probably one reason why younger millenials are wilting flowers worried about work life balance in their first jobs. We had a proper lunch break during which we had time to eat, digest, and play a bit of sport. We were all healthier and happier for it. And we had a revolutionary approach to bullying - punish those responsible.ydoethur said:
So 90 minutes of breaks. The average now would I think be an hour (20+40) but there are plenty where it doesn't clear 45 minutes - and there's a big chunk of your difference right away.MaxPB said:
I think this was the school day:ydoethur said:
I would guess you had an hour plus for lunch? Most schools especially comprehensives only have 20-30 minutes as extra-curricular has withered away and they twigged that about 75% of all serious bullying incidents happened in the second half of lunch hours.MaxPB said:
It's weird because kids today all finish at 3, when I was at school it was 8:30 to 4:00 they must have shortened the school day since then.
8:30 - register, house
8:45 - assembly, main hall
9:00 - period 1
10:00 - period 2
11:00 - break
11:30 - period 3 (double session, usually PE or technology class)
13:00 - lunch
14:00 - period 4
15:00 - period 5
16:00 - end
The school library was open until 5pm though so anyone who's parents couldn't pick them up until later would usually just hang around there doing homework for an hour, but most people got the bus home.
However, the average teaching time would be 5 hours rather than 5.30 as well, so very slightly shorter.
Seriously, schools finish too early. Should be 8-5 to prepare children for life.0 -
That's an astonishing assertion.Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
Nah, teh immigruntz get them all now.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.0 -
What
I think it depends on the state. Johnson appeals to a lot of small government Republicans, and the Republican base in the West is full of those.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I wonder if Johnson's a bigger risk to Clinton than Trump.
Trump has a lot of passionate supporters and opponents. Clinton seems to have a largely lukewarm, but broader, level of support. Might they be likelier to peel off for a third party chap?
So: Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada (all of which are at least slightly difficult for Trump now) are the places where I'd expect Johnson could weigh on the Republican vote.
On the East coast - Conneticut, New Hampshire, etc - I'd expect him to take from both, but perhaps more from Clinton.0 -
Mr. Mortimer, we used to dream of having a lunch break. We had to steal food just so we didn't starve to death, and we only got a sodding tunic (just one, mind!) when we were twelve. Got so cold at night we had to sting ourselves with nettles just to stay warm.
/FourSpartans0 -
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.0 -
TexasJackW said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
CRAP - California Rhode island Alaska PennsylvaniaTheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Utah
Montana
Pennsylvania0 -
Simon Croft: Lewis might take THREE new power units this weekend.0
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It would certainly be a courageous decision.MaxPB said:
Finland also spends 60% of its GDP on public services, I'm not sure that the British public would want tax increases worth 22% of GDP. It would be a brave government who tries anyway.Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
But remember that the effect of the non-white population is not ubiquitous and the electoral college are bound by the electorate's choice.not_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.
In effect we have 52 referenda.0 -
Although Leave had the big boost from the existing postal votes. Do we know how much postal voting there is in the US?HYUFD said:
Sorry general election yes. Remain had up to 10% leads weeks before polling day and still led in most polls in the final week. Trump presently trails by about 5%, if he can win the debates and cut that lead to 1 or 2% in the final week anything can happenEssexit said:
*General Election since 1992. Though the mistake is understandable, they are beginning to look like Presidential contests.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
There's certainly a lot of room for turnout in the US to increase. Could be that like Leave, Trump is ahead already because he's mobilising non-voters, and the polls aren't picking it up. I'm sceptical though, Clinton is enjoying significantly bigger poll leads than Remain had at this stage, so the error would have to be monumental.
Also: oldies. Does anyone have breakdown of support for Clinton and Trump by age?0 -
Probably because a solitary day's missed school in isolation won't materially affect children's education - which is why penalising parents whose children have a perfect attendance record in general for taking a holiday is absurd.SandyRentool said:It is usually the case that when there is a teachers' strike the parents interviewed on TV complain that they will have to take time off work to look after their children - never that the children's education is being disrupted.
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Long break times were good for exactly that reason. I get the feeling it is the teachers unions who have been pushing for shorter school (work) days. I don't see any benefit from shortening the school day from what I had to the current 9-3, it makes very little sense to me.Mortimer said:
Probably one reason why younger millenials are wilting flowers worried about work life balance in their first jobs. We had a proper lunch break during which we had time to eat, digest, and play a bit of sport. We were all healthier and happier for it. And we had a revolutionary approach to bullying - punish those responsible.ydoethur said:
So 90 minutes of breaks. The average now would I think be an hour (20+40) but there are plenty where it doesn't clear 45 minutes - and there's a big chunk of your difference right away.MaxPB said:
I think this was the school day:ydoethur said:
I would guess you had an hour plus for lunch? Most schools especially comprehensives only have 20-30 minutes as extra-curricular has withered away and they twigged that about 75% of all serious bullying incidents happened in the second half of lunch hours.MaxPB said:
It's weird because kids today all finish at 3, when I was at school it was 8:30 to 4:00 they must have shortened the school day since then.
8:30 - register, house
8:45 - assembly, main hall
9:00 - period 1
10:00 - period 2
11:00 - break
11:30 - period 3 (double session, usually PE or technology class)
13:00 - lunch
14:00 - period 4
15:00 - period 5
16:00 - end
The school library was open until 5pm though so anyone who's parents couldn't pick them up until later would usually just hang around there doing homework for an hour, but most people got the bus home.
However, the average teaching time would be 5 hours rather than 5.30 as well, so very slightly shorter.
Seriously, schools finish too early. Should be 8-5 to prepare children for life.0 -
It's a perfectly reasonable argument. But there are short term benefits too. It will enable many parents to return to work and hence boost the tax base.John_M said:
That's an astonishing assertion.Alistair said:
Yes, because children grow up to be tax payers and the better start hey have in life the more tax they pay later.GeoffM said:
By "free" you actually mean "paid for by everyone including those without children", yes?rottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.0 -
They obviously all got scared of Brown's gulags for slags and started using contraception!rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.0 -
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
F1: so, according to the thread (Brundle/Croft), Hamilton's having between one and three new engines.
Hmm.0 -
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.0 -
Yep the current issue is the 3rd / 4th new tax credit child as your youngest approaches 16...MaxPB said:
They obviously all got scared of Brown's gulags for slags and started using contraception!rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.0 -
Huzzah my pension info has finally arrived.
Probably not enough to retire on just yet
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And then compare the price to a year agoTheScreamingEagles said:Ed Miliband will be delighted with this news
Brexit pushes up price of a bacon butty as China takes advantage of weak sterling to buy British pork
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/brexit-pushes-up-price-of-bacon/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Pork producers are getting creamed at the moment as prices are at all time lows.
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The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.0 -
Has Formula One jumped the shark? What a pitiful sport it has become.Morris_Dancer said:F1: so, according to the thread (Brundle/Croft), Hamilton's having between one and three new engines.
Hmm.0 -
Several hundred thousand?Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
It was 40,000 in 2009, and the rate has fallen since. And that also includes adults (18 and 19 year olds), which is a bit different to 15/16 year olds.
(Edit to add: 43,000 and that excludes Scotland - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teenage_pregnancy_in_the_United_Kingdom; So the whole country might be nearer 50,000.)0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"0 -
Thanks for the thought, Mr PB. We ... wife’s a cricket watcher as well ..... watch ODI’s and T20 (when our local side’s involved) as well as tests.MaxPB said:
If you only watch test matches then Now TV is £11 for a weekly pass. A four test summer series and five test winter series comes to £100 per year rather than £30/m, if you watch other sports then obviously it isn't a good option, but I use the the daily passes for Spurs matches and the weekly passes for cricket. I just don't care enough about golf, ATP tennis or club rugby.OldKingCole said:
Our place is smaller than those quoted I would think, but our utilities are around 40% of those quoted, including Sky. Which we have because it’s the only place one can watch top quality cricket!RobD said:
Burning fivers on the stove perhaps?Sandpit said:
How on Earth does a small house generate a £1200 a month utility bill? Do they have air conditioning at 10 degrees in the summer and heating at 30 degrees in the winter, with every family member having a bath twice a day?RobD said:
Or they could stop spending £1200 a month on utilities.. madnessrottenborough said:
A free, national childcare service would sort these families out. Could be vote winner for a party that was serious about it. Finland has the right idea. Muncipal day care for all under 7s. Trained staff, including degree-level teachers in all the centres.foxinsoxuk said:
Utilities also seem rather high: £1180 for the first family per month. Even including mobile phones, council tax and insurance that seems extremely high.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Apart from going to the games of course!
However, I’ll look into it.
On a related subject I got fed up with people offering to insure my Sky box. Costs seem astronomical compared with replacement cost for a box if it does go wrong.
However, as they don’t have a recognisable number I just don’t answer the calls now.0 -
Texas, Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee?JackW said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
CRAP - California Rhode island Alaska PennsylvaniaTheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania0 -
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income0 -
Does that conceptions number include people who go on to have an abortion?AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"0 -
It won't be just food. Having just sold our two guinea pigs, £20/mth doesn't sound too far out if you're looking after them properly: dry food, fresh food, straw, sawdust, vets' bills, hutch etc. (some capital spend there but average it over 7 years and it'll still be several pounds a month).Paul_Bedfordshire said:
That is quite an impressive guinea pig food billIanB2 said:
If you look at the figures, the women aren't all the lower earners, by any means.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The net salary gain minus childcare is less than £400 for most of them. That is before commuting costs, clothes for work, meals at wor, petrol to drive round to the child minder, more expensive supermarket food than food prepared at home from scratch.OldKingCole said:
But if one of them stopped work the net effect would be to reduce the income by more than the childcare saving.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Edited for FFS.
Basically these women are paying to work and the family would be financially better off and have a vastly better quality of life if they were not working.
I am glad no-one begrudges the monthly £20 so the Guinea pig doesn't starve...0 -
Mmm, I had this chart, showing numbers of conceptions in the 750k range. Maybe their age cutoff is higher than 18.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11431478/Teenage-pregnancy-rates-lowest-since-records-began-official-statistics-show.html0 -
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.0 -
Limiting tax credits to 2 or 3 children is an absolute must do for the government. Three in total, not maximum concurrent allowance either.eek said:
Yep the current issue is the 3rd / 4th new tax credit child as your youngest approaches 16...MaxPB said:
They obviously all got scared of Brown's gulags for slags and started using contraception!rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.0 -
One thing that would really scare them is a significant fall in house values and the new level stabilise.. The loss of equity could spell disaster in the medium term.asjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income0 -
He has a new more professional team which will help but the debates are the key gamechanger left nowDecrepitJohnL said:
Trump needs to stop insulting people. First, because he takes out his own supporters with friendly fire, as when his attacks on Hillary seem misogynistic or when he attacks military families (the armed forces (a) vote and (b) vote overwhelmingly Republican). Second because it is unseemly; it is not presidential -- Americans need to feel their country is secure and prosperous, leader of the free world, not liable to start world war three because Putin's got bigger hands.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
On scandals, something might emerge from Hillary's emails, but equally there may be a shock in Trump's tax returns and business dealings, so that is a wash. The known unknowns cancel each other out, at least while they remain unknown.0 -
This was lost in the furore yesterday, while we're talking about the young:
https://twitter.com/mcdonnelljp/status/769086851709865985
0 -
There are only 698,000 births in the UK (2013 number)!Sandpit said:
Mmm, I had this chart, showing numbers of conceptions in the 750k range. Maybe their age cutoff is higher than 18.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11431478/Teenage-pregnancy-rates-lowest-since-records-began-official-statistics-show.html
Edit to add: I think that chart is for total births (which they've labeled conceptions) in the UK, and they've simply not labelled it properly.0 -
Trump doesn't need Florida. He can win with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the Rust Belt strategy as Michael Moore has named it.0
-
Yes, it is the sum of maternities and abortions. Miscarriages and illegal abortions are not included.rcs1000 said:
Does that conceptions number include people who go on to have an abortion?AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"0 -
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
Mr. 86, there are a few problems.
1) Circuits. Those in charge seem happy to lose classic circuits [excepting tedious Monaco, over which airhead moneymen go all gooey] in favour of rubbish but well-paying tracks. There's a risk of reaching a tipping point where more races are, frankly, at boring places than not.
2) TV. We now have pay TV in the UK, and coverage will become exclusively pay TV in a couple of years. This won't help viewing figures, and that will have a corresponding impact on sponsorship deals.
3) Shitty regulations. Aerodynamics do make things tricky, but some things (DRS) could be tossed overboard right now. Trying to replicate the 20-something Canadian Grand Prix (maybe 2009?) when the tyres crumbled was always intensely stupid. That race was exciting because no-one knew the tyres would have the longevity of Corbyn's political honeymoon. When every tyre in every race was known to be crumbly, drivers simply drove within the tyre performance, leading to far less excitement.
4) Money. Ferrari gets money just for turning up. Spa and Monza may be at risk over fees, but Monaco pays nothing. Smaller teams get paid less (as well as having less or no say in governance). It's completely unfair and could see teams go to the wall.0 -
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income0 -
And I can't see anything he is doing which will get him back educated white people or womenSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.
0 -
He'll be lucky to get 33 minority voters.Sean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
There's a discrepancy between conceptions and births, for both natural and artificial reasons, but I accept that the Telegraph's graph is probably bollocks compared to other statistics - it looks like they dress an article about teenage pregnancies with a graph showing all pregnancies.rcs1000 said:
There are only 698,000 births in the UK (2013 number)!Sandpit said:
Mmm, I had this chart, showing numbers of conceptions in the 750k range. Maybe their age cutoff is higher than 18.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11431478/Teenage-pregnancy-rates-lowest-since-records-began-official-statistics-show.html
Edit to add: I think that chart is for total births (which they've labeled conceptions) in the UK, and they've simply not labelled it properly.0 -
Pennsylvania is a tough one, because Philadelphia and its suburbs are not going Trump. He'll have to win the rest of the state by a big margin to make up for losing Philly.AndyJS said:Trump doesn't need Florida. He can win with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the Rust Belt strategy as Michael Moore has named it.
0 -
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.0 -
ICYMI Mr Aaronovitch on why Corbynistas aren't Trots.
"Jeremy Corbyn...attracts the earnest schoolkid inside some."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2016-08-25/comment/dont-be-fooled-these-corbynistas-are-not-trotskyites-mzb278kzn0 -
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
A couple of weeks ago he was fourth with black voters, on 2%:HYUFD said:
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-in-fourth-place-among-black-voters/0 -
Conceptions = births + abortions. They have to say that to cover up the fact that MI5 has cameras in every bedroom to count conceptions directly.AlastairMeeks said:
Yes, it is the sum of maternities and abortions. Miscarriages and illegal abortions are not included.rcs1000 said:
Does that conceptions number include people who go on to have an abortion?AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"0 -
I suspect the non-availability of Trumps tax returns will continue to rumble on. Whether it’s going to demotivate any supporters of course is highly questionable.
Rather depends, I suppose, on how Clinton uses that non-availability. If he’s got nothing to hide .......0 -
Yes and if the sun rises in the west ...HYUFD said:
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.0
-
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.0 -
No one can really beat Perry Como at this game so not much point in trying.ThreeQuidder said:
TexasJackW said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
CRAP - California Rhode island Alaska PennsylvaniaTheScreamingEagles said:
Surely FAP might be more interesting.JackW said:PBers not unduly interested in POTUS 2016 need only refer to FOP.
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Utah
Montana
Pennsylvania
What did Delaware?
She wore a brand New Jersey
And when Calla phone us?
Just to say how ai ya?
And did Missy sippy
Some of your mini-soda?
Etc etc0 -
We don’t know, and can’t know, how many “conceptions” are prevented by emergency hormonal contraception.DecrepitJohnL said:
Conceptions = births + abortions. They have to say that to cover up the fact that MI5 has cameras in every bedroom to count conceptions directly.AlastairMeeks said:
Yes, it is the sum of maternities and abortions. Miscarriages and illegal abortions are not included.rcs1000 said:
Does that conceptions number include people who go on to have an abortion?AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"0 -
F1: P1 underway, of course.
Some chaps are testing the halo.0 -
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
. 0 -
He won't get close to 33%, though (he'd walk the election if he did).HYUFD said:
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
Why does it matter? That's like saying we don't know, and can't know, how many "conceptions" are prevented by birth control.OldKingCole said:
We don’t know, and can’t know, how many “conceptions” are prevented by emergency hormonal contraception.DecrepitJohnL said:
Conceptions = births + abortions. They have to say that to cover up the fact that MI5 has cameras in every bedroom to count conceptions directly.AlastairMeeks said:
Yes, it is the sum of maternities and abortions. Miscarriages and illegal abortions are not included.rcs1000 said:
Does that conceptions number include people who go on to have an abortion?AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"0 -
More good economic news, although Q2 data was mostly before the referendum. Hopefully Q3 will hold up, although this revision raises the baseline for the Q3 QoQ numbers.MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
0 -
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.0 -
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.0 -
Blimey this time last year the plan was worth less than what was put into it !
Thankfully it has grown since then.0 -
Just catching up on this Labour conference security thing. TBH a cancellation is probably better all around for Labour as they can use health and safety as a get out for both the conference and all the inevitable blood letting that would occur during the week in full public view.0
-
Well it's the ONS estimate of June data which gave them the -0.8% figure, the real data has actually come in now and they've revise June up enough to change the QoQ figure to +0.5%. June was the height of uncertainty before the vote and it's now clear that businesses kept on as normal, I don't see why that will have changed, other than possible a two or three week blip in the final week of June and the first part of July. Clearly UK business is made of much sterner stuff that our "experts" thought they were.Sandpit said:
More good economic news, although Q2 data was mostly before the referendum. Hopefully Q3 will hold up, although this revision raises the baseline for the Q3 QoQ numbers.MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
0 -
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
0 -
You mean Paul Ryan's Wisconsin and Michigan where Trump has effectively given up ..AndyJS said:Trump doesn't need Florida. He can win with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the Rust Belt strategy as Michael Moore has named it.
FOP it is. When Pennsylvania is called for Clinton then Trump is dead in the water.0 -
And people wonder why the property market and buy-to-let are booming.Pulpstar said:Blimey this time last year the plan was worth less than what was put into it !
Thankfully it has grown since then.
Sort out other investments and pensions and people will invest in those, I really don't understand the interest rate cut other than the MPC wanted to be seen to do something.0 -
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.0 -
If you want a real WTF moment there is a classic on MSE today..asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5516143 £400 a month in tax credits but 2 btl properties. When the BTL tax changes come in her income increases to £38k reducing the tax credits to £50 a month.
Why are people with BTL properties getting tax credits full stop....0 -
Doesn’t of course. However, the availabality of EHC has contributed to the number of girls NOT turning up at abortion clinics or going on the have babies.Philip_Thompson said:
Why does it matter? That's like saying we don't know, and can't know, how many "conceptions" are prevented by birth control.OldKingCole said:
We don’t know, and can’t know, how many “conceptions” are prevented by emergency hormonal contraception.DecrepitJohnL said:
Conceptions = births + abortions. They have to say that to cover up the fact that MI5 has cameras in every bedroom to count conceptions directly.AlastairMeeks said:
Yes, it is the sum of maternities and abortions. Miscarriages and illegal abortions are not included.rcs1000 said:
Does that conceptions number include people who go on to have an abortion?AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Bit different to the days of clingfilm as a “baby-sitter special”.0 -
What happens to their leadership election given the result is supposed to be announced at Conference. Does it get extended 12 months to next year's ConferenceMoses_ said:Just catching up on this Labour conference security thing. TBH a cancellation is probably better all around for Labour as they can use health and safety as a get out for both the conference and all the inevitable blood letting that would occur during the week in full public view.
0 -
Indeed, there are just far fewer of them. I think most people who voted to leave accept there will be some negative economic results from leaving, but the extent is unknown. Only idiots like Liam Fox think it will make absolutely no difference. Even Boris talked about the hockey stick and that was before the vote took place.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.0 -
They're booming because some people are more willing to deprive others of a home of their own than start/invest in a business.Sandpit said:
And people wonder why the property market and buy-to-let are booming.Pulpstar said:Blimey this time last year the plan was worth less than what was put into it !
Thankfully it has grown since then.
Sort out other investments and pensions and people will invest in those, I really don't understand the interest rate cut other than the MPC wanted to be seen to do something.
Generation Boom seem to think that they're entitled to a return on their money. They're not.
0 -
Yeah, and his 'you have nothing to lose' meme isn't exactly persuasive.david_herdson said:
A couple of weeks ago he was fourth with black voters, on 2%:HYUFD said:
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-in-fourth-place-among-black-voters/0 -
The supposed pre-Brexit investment hiatus was also heavily emphasised by the Bank of England governor.MaxPB said:
Well it's the ONS estimate of June data which gave them the -0.8% figure, the real data has actually come in now and they've revise June up enough to change the QoQ figure to +0.5%. June was the height of uncertainty before the vote and it's now clear that businesses kept on as normal, I don't see why that will have changed, other than possible a two or three week blip in the final week of June and the first part of July. Clearly UK business is made of much sterner stuff that our "experts" thought they were.Sandpit said:
More good economic news, although Q2 data was mostly before the referendum. Hopefully Q3 will hold up, although this revision raises the baseline for the Q3 QoQ numbers.MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
0 -
If that figure is actully conceptions and not births then the parts of the country I used to estimate my figures are very unlucky compared to the rest of the country. Hence I suspect the use of conception is wrong there and its live births...OldKingCole said:
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.0 -
Didn't most say they expected some short term difficulties in exchange for better things in the longer term?perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
What grates is those who forecast Armageddon if the vote was to leave, now determined to see the economy do badly purely to vindicate their comments.0 -
Indeed, the idea of Trump doing better than Romney with blacks is laughable. He's currently polling less than 1% with them.Sean_F said:
He won't get close to 33%, though (he'd walk the election if he did).HYUFD said:
He could certainly do better than Romney with blacks and if he does the same with Asians and Hispanics that is a net gain with minoritiesSean_F said:
Leave did, however, get the support of 33% of minority voters, which Trump won't.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, 70% of the U.S. population is still white and it was the white working class who were the base for Leave as they are for Trump, white graduates narrowly voted Remain as did ethnic minorities. If Trump can get a big white working class turnout and narrow the gap with white graduates as he did after the GOP convention anything can happennot_on_fire said:
One of a number of people on here who are making themselves look foolish through a simplistic Leave=Trump, Remain=Clinton filter.HYUFD said:I think it will be Clinton but by the narrowest of margins. Certainly a strong debate performance would boost Trump. Also as Farage pointed out on Wednesday night, Leave won by mobilising white working class voters who had not voted before on an anti establishment, anti immigration ticket to produce a turnout of 72%, the highest for any presidential election since 1992. Turnout in the last U.S. presidential election was 54% and Trump will be running on a similar platform and aiming to get record white working class turnout in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.0 -
It could be over by 2.00 in the morning UK time, and the rest of the evening can be watching Trump be humiliated.JackW said:
You mean Paul Ryan's Wisconsin and Michigan where Trump has effectively given up ..AndyJS said:Trump doesn't need Florida. He can win with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the Rust Belt strategy as Michael Moore has named it.
FOP it is. When Pennsylvania is called for Clinton then Trump is dead in the water.
One can only hope!0 -
It will all end in tears.Mortimer said:
They're booming because some people are more willing to deprive others of a home of their own than start/invest in a business.Sandpit said:
And people wonder why the property market and buy-to-let are booming.Pulpstar said:Blimey this time last year the plan was worth less than what was put into it !
Thankfully it has grown since then.
Sort out other investments and pensions and people will invest in those, I really don't understand the interest rate cut other than the MPC wanted to be seen to do something.
Generation Boom seem to think that they're entitled to a return on their money. They're not.0 -
What an absolute joke the British state has got itself into.eek said:
If you want a real WTF moment there is a classic on MSE today..asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5516143 £400 a month in tax credits but 2 btl properties. When the BTL tax changes come in her income increases to £38k reducing the tax credits to £50 a month.
Why are people with BTL properties getting tax credits full stop....0 -
Most people are into BTL as there is nowhere else to save / invest when you like your full time job...Mortimer said:
They're booming because some people are more willing to deprive others of a home of their own than start/invest in a business.Sandpit said:
And people wonder why the property market and buy-to-let are booming.Pulpstar said:Blimey this time last year the plan was worth less than what was put into it !
Thankfully it has grown since then.
Sort out other investments and pensions and people will invest in those, I really don't understand the interest rate cut other than the MPC wanted to be seen to do something.
Generation Boom seem to think that they're entitled to a return on their money. They're not.
Then you have people like the one I mention below who just want a pension of some form or other..0 -
It's led to a boost in exports; we don't know about the trade balance yet, and we have to account for the fact that oil, gas, etc. are now approximately 10% more to import. I suspect we'll see a marginal narrowing of the deficit in 3Q.Philip_Thompson said:
Most Brexit "experts" said there could be some short-term risk but it would be mild and there were long term opportunities as a result. So far that seems to be bearing out as entirely correct.perdix said:
But aren't you also irritated by Brexit "experts" who say that there will be no negative consequences?MaxPB said:
I don't see how that holds water for July data either! As always, I'm not saying that Brexit will be easy or without any economic costs, far from it, I'm just irritated by the "experts" desperately trying to justify their completely overblown predictions of doom before the vote.John_M said:
From what I've seen, they're hiding behind 'Carney's measures have staved off the predicted disaster'. Obviously, it's more difficult to deploy that argument for Q2MaxPB said:The slowdown in business investment for Q2 has been revised away, previously -0.8% QoQ now +0.5%, Sam Tombs must be crying into his coffee right now. He used the pre-referendum fall in business investment as the foundation of his argument that the leave vote would lead to calamity. Not sure how he is going to avoid this latest blow.
.
Given that the short-term factors seem to be very mild so far and the collapse in the pound has led to a boost for our trade balance, its not impossible that Brexit could even lead to a short term boost to the economy.0 -
Surely a simple means test there. Own more than one property? No tax credits, housing benefit or child benefits. Simple.Pulpstar said:
What an absolute joke the British state has got itself into.eek said:If you want a real WTF moment there is a classic on MSE today..
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5516143 £400 a month in tax credits but 2 btl properties. When the BTL tax changes come in her income increases to £38k reducing the tax credits to £50 a month.
Why are people with BTL properties getting tax credits full stop....0 -
PC games have wonderful side effects.MaxPB said:
They obviously all got scared of Brown's gulags for slags and started using contraception!rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
0 -
Mr. Max, broadcast media being generally pro-Remain has also affected expectations management. If they'd been even-handed after the vote, the current situation might look worse. Because the approach was generally negative (what have we done? etc), even treading water now looks good compared to what was expected.
Mr. Moses, jein. The Official Opposition not being able to hold its own conference doesn't exactly dispel the suggestion they're not exactly a government-in-waiting.0 -
Having more lifeguards at one of the most popular beaches in England doesn't seem an unreasonable request.Mortimer said:
Talking of a screaming sense of entitlement, the yells for more lifeguards at Camber Sands baffle me - I grew up by the sea and in summers gone past have spent entire months at un-lifeguarded beaches.asjohnstone said:
Yes, but these people appear to be in tricky middle ground where they don't qualify for rebates / credits but don't earn enough to afford strategies to minimise their obligations.HYUFD said:
Well we almost all pay tax and of course that tax provides free healthcare and education which everyone can use without paying for itasjohnstone said:
I'd like to see a budget item covering the amount of tax they pay in various forms.HYUFD said:
The average salary is £27k so that makes a household income of £55k so these couples are on average incomes, especially as most live in the South East. They should not expect to have much left at the end of the month, though they could cut out Sky etc. You really need a household income of £100k to be well of nowCasino_Royale said:
If those numbers are true, they could do other things too.rottenborough said:
Reading their detail. It is the childcare that is the killer. Nearly a grand a month.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I know its Dacre'ite click porn.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
I suspect it's the high tax burden that's killing these people, all up it's probably getting near to 50% of headline income
The real problem here of course is a screaming sense of entitlement and the mistaken belief that they should be able to live like their baby boomer parents did on similar incomes, ignoring the vast increase in living and housing costs.
Learn how to swim, don't get into difficulty, and you'll be fine. The sea is a great friend provided it is treated with respect.0 -
IIRC from my days working with Family Planning services, conceptions vs live births does wary significantly acorss the country. Depends on local culture, religion etc.eek said:
If that figure is actully conceptions and not births then the parts of the country I used to estimate my figures are very unlucky compared to the rest of the country. Hence I suspect the use of conception is wrong there and its live births...OldKingCole said:
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.0 -
That period of Gordon's reign was very peculiar. He came over all BNP with British Jobs 4 British Workers too.MaxPB said:
They obviously all got scared of Brown's gulags for slags and started using contraception!rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
http://order-order.com/2009/09/29/exclusive-browns-gulags-for-slags-policy-taken-from-bnp/
http://heresycorner.blogspot.com/2009/09/gordon-brown-stealing-bnp-clothes-again.html
"And here, with greater succinctness but indistinguishable sentiment, is what Gordon Brown said, to warm applause, in his Brighton speech today:
And I do think it's time to address a problem that for too long has gone unspoken, the number of children having children. For it cannot be right, for a girl of sixteen, to get pregnant, be given the keys to a council flat and be left on her own.
From now on all 16 and 17 year old parents who get support from the taxpayer will be placed in a network of supervised homes. These shared homes will offer not just a roof over their heads, but a new start in life where they learn responsibility and how to raise their children properly. That's better for them, better for their babies and better for us all in the long run.
We won't ever shy away from taking difficult decisions on tough social questions."0 -
Surely if you worked in that area then by default your experience is not representative of the rest of the country? Anyone who works in an industry naturally experiences their customers/clients and not those who are nearby but unrelated.eek said:
If that figure is actully conceptions and not births then the parts of the country I used to estimate my figures are very unlucky compared to the rest of the country. Hence I suspect the use of conception is wrong there and its live births...OldKingCole said:
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.0 -
Not when your dataset is part of the north east, manchester city council and part of the poshest part of the home counties.. its why I'm fairly happy that my dataset is varied enough....Philip_Thompson said:
Surely if you worked in that area then by default your experience is not representative of the rest of the country? Anyone who works in an industry naturally experiences their customers/clients and not those who are nearby but unrelated.eek said:
If that figure is actully conceptions and not births then the parts of the country I used to estimate my figures are very unlucky compared to the rest of the country. Hence I suspect the use of conception is wrong there and its live births...OldKingCole said:
“Conception” by no means always results in live birth, of course. A significant number of teen pregnancies end with abortions.eek said:
For the past two years I have been subjected to the character assassination that is the local youth awards. In both cases there have been 3-4 children who have had their own children prior to 16 and continued in education - that bits unavoidable.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35761826Sandpit said:
Record lows do not necessarily mean not a problem - we still have several hundred thousand teenagers getting pregnant every year.rcs1000 said:
Teenage pregnancy rates are at record lows in the UK, so it's barely a problem any more.Sandpit said:
Do we still give teenage mothers a free council house? That might have more to do with it.PlatoSaid said:After the baby discussion the other day
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
"• The estimated number of conceptions to girls under 18 fell to 22,653 in 2014 compared with 24,306 in 2013, a decrease of 6.8%"
Based on that and a couple of other sources I reckon a decent estimate of those aged 14-16 having children is probably 7000 or so.0
