politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not sure a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party is equipped t
Comments
-
Mortimer "You're comparing socialism to a product with merit?"
Don't get me wrong Mortimer, I wouldn't ever buy it. I can though certainly see its appeal to quite a substantial section of the market.
There are plenty of people (particularly younger ones) who are getting a pretty terrible deal interms of opportunity to share in the benefits of capitalism (property ownership, decent working condition sand prospects etc. ) .
I dislike the Labour party but I don't underestimate what it achieved at its best.
What Labour achieved after the War was truly liberating for millions of ordinary people. They have strayed a long way from those values but it needn't mean they can't recapture them and win again.
0 -
Surely the only serious question is whether this lying, incompetence and numbing stupidity at the very time that the ballot papers are being issued enough to make Labour members pause and have second thoughts about Corbyn?
Nicks comments would suggest not and it is not as if Labour is being offered an LBJ level alternative. But in recent times we have had the vote of no confidence by the PLP, Kahn making it clear that Corbyn is incapable of leading anything and similar views from Kezia Dugdale. Labour Party members have now had a vivid if slightly silly demonstration of what all these people were talking about.
Is Smith value? I am tempted.0 -
Hamilton for a podium, but not until after his penalty is confirmed?Morris_Dancer said:F1: trying to crack on with work so this is on the backburner until tomorrow or maybe Sunday, but having missed the obvious value on Rosberg, with Hamilton's likely grid penalty, which has now vanished, there might be value elsewhere. Only nine markets up on Ladbrokes currently, though.
0 -
You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?MaxPB said:
The cost of their parent's generation of pensions is not anywhere near the cost of their generation's pensions.Charles said:
But why should Alastair's generation pay for 2 sets of pensions (any more than our generation should)?MaxPB said:
For state pensions the triple lock needs axing and for public pensions they all need to be moved to DC rather than DB. I know you're the pension expert and you'll say the latter will cost more money up front, but it will be my generation who are paying tomorrow.AlastairMeeks said:
The change in indexation of pensions from RPI to CPI has saved something like £100 billion so far.MaxPB said:
Pensions, state and public.AlastairMeeks said:
If the Conservatives weren't supposed to cut defence spending and they weren't supposed to cut benefits, where were they supposed to make cuts? The other criticism routinely made by the paleo-right of George Osborne is that he didn't cut enough.Casino_Royale said:
Modernisers hate to hear it but IDS played a major part in changing the Conservative Party's attitudes towards social justice and welfare reform.DecrepitJohnL said:
IDS did surprisingly well at the ballot box but was terrible at PMQs and a lousy speaker, not least because he'd clear his throat midway through almost every sentence. But it is propaganda of the victors to claim Michael Howard saved the party.Charles said:
Was IDS really this bad? It's a long time ago, but all I remember is IDS being a professional politician who simply wasn't very good at it.CarlottaVance said:I'm trying to think of a LotO less suited to the role - and the only one who comes close is IDS.....serial rebel, imposed by the membership who felt he held the 'true faith'.....
Jeremy takes it to a whole other level. He's transcendently bad...
You only have to compare Osborne's sneering at those on benefits, and eagerness for cutting it to the bone, compared to IDS's concern that universal credit wouldn't work without being properly funded to see the difference.
IDS main issue is that (although not stupid) he's never been quite clever enough to make a success of himself or his ideas.
The magic money tree has branches on the right as well as the left.
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that0 -
The debates are also key but a Clinton GOP Congress is most likelySean_F said:
The default position seems to be for Clinton to have a small lead, provided she isn't hit by scandal, and Trump doesn't say something ridiculous. Assuming she wins, I don't think she'll have much in the way of coat-tails.HYUFD said:The big news overnight was Farage's speech at a Trump rally in Mississippi where he was personally introduced by the Donald himself. BREXIT was big news in the U.S. and led most of the news the day after and Trump clearly intends to fight a similar anti establishment, white working class focused campaign. At the moment he is doing as well with non-college educated whites as vote Leave but a little worse with ethnic minorities and significantly worse with white college graduates. However Trump almost tied Hillary with white college graduates after the GOP convention and if he can get back to that level after the GOP convention he has a real chance
0 -
Labour is on about 30% in most polls, plus or minus a fewSquareRoot said:
Citation required, and polls are not accurate...HYUFD said:
About 30% of voters want CorbynliteMortimer said:
Would he ring 999 to speak to the Police about policy? *innocent face*HYUFD said:
Howard delivered IDS style policies and an even harder line on immigration but more competently, Smith would deliver Corbynlite policies and an even more pro European line perhaps more competentlyDecrepitJohnL said:
IDS did surprisingly well at the ballot ved the party.Charles said:
Was IDS really this bad? It's a long time ago, but all I remember is IDS being a professional politician who simply wasn't very good at it.CarlottaVance said:I'm trying to think of a LotO less suited to the role - and the only one who comes close is IDS.....serial rebel, imposed by the membership who felt he held the 'true faith'.....
Jeremy takes it to a whole other level. He's transcendently bad...
Seriously, being more competent than Corbyn is not enough if you have barmy policies that most average voters think are laughable.0 -
Or Sunderland in 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012,2011.....Jonathan said:
Or Leicester the season before.SquareRoot said:It suddenly occurred to me what Team Jezza reminds me of..
A football team with a losing manager, its Xmas and the team is bottom of the table, no money to buy new players, unable to change tactics but every week the team comes out and gets beaten, sometimes narrowly, sometimes a thrashing and its gloom all the way with no hope of redemption..
A bit like Aston Villa (last season) really?0 -
Mr. Sandpit, a credible approach, but I was thinking of Red Bull to top score if the price is right.
I'll ramble on this properly for the pre-qualifying piece, but at Russia Hamilton started 10th, finished 2nd. In Azerbaijan, 10th to 5th (albeit with a slightly below power engine). In China, 22nd to 7th.
Red Bull, if Rosberg wins, may get 2nd and 3rd, which is 33 points. For an equal share win, Hamilton must be 6th. If he's 5th, the bet would fail, if he's 7th the bet wins properly.0 -
I think the whole TrainGate thing is being slightly blown out of proportion. Most people won't remember it in a few months' time.NickPalmer said:Watched the clip, thought the start was a bit uncomfortable but basically came away with two points: (1) he wanted to talk about the NHS and journalists wanted to talk trivia (2) he has a case on the train incident that I can't be bothered to assess. Net effect is to make me even more favourable. I'm more concerned about the Sanders cockup, which shouldn't have gone unchecked.
Now, I'm a sympathiser so you'd expect that reaction to the clip. But two points:
- Anecdotally, two emails from non-Labour ex-constituents have come in saying that they think there is an overcrowding problem, they're glad Corbyn raised it, and the media coverage is just irritating.
- I honestly don't think that either PB leader writers or the mainstream media get why Corbyn is popular with those who like him, and in many cases (cf Ganesh) they've given up even trying. This affects punting (by making people bet on a misunderstanding) and it affects predicting what the party will do.
A distinction is needed between being widely seen as not up to being PM and not having a strong supporter base. The problem with Owen's challenge is that he may fail on both counts.0 -
That's putting effect before cause. The cause is Labour's policy of getting 50% of children to university, which AFAICR was more or less continued under the coalition.Theuniondivvie said:
Correction: would never have thought that they could get away with introducing tuition fees. They went gangbusters on them once Labour had helpfully done the donkey work.rcs1000 said:
It's true: the Conservatives would never have introduced tuition fees.rottenborough said:
It has become an accepted trope that Labour in 1997 was a Tory tribute act. That doesn't mean it is actually true. There is a whole wodge of stuff that Blair/Brown did that the Tories had no intention of doing. Let's just start with the minimum wage.kle4 said:
On the basis that at some point a government will so old and tired the other lot will get another go, a premise in this country at least I generally agree with, I'm curious if you feel Blair and did not need to become a Tory tribute act to win in 1997? And I'm curious what Nick p feels about that government being called so, given he was in it and yet is also a Corbynite. Come to that, does Corbyn think it was a Tory tribute act, in which case why didn't he rebel even more!Concanvasser said:TSE I think you are being unduly harsh on Jez and certainly too pessimistic about the prospects of Labour in the medium term.
Yes Jez will almost certainly lead Labour to a reasonably heavy defeat at the next election (probably in 2020). However Labour were almost certain to lose it convincingly anyway, given their performance in 2015 and the effects of the boundary review.
What Jez HAS achieved is to put a whole raft of proper Labour polices; like Public Ownership of the railways, back on the national negotiating table.
Everything is cyclical in the end. At some stage, probably in the mid 2020's but possibly earlier, the public will decide to 'give the other lot a go' . When Labour does come to take its turn, Jez will have ensured it can take office as a proper Labour government and not the sort of Tory tribute act we saw in 1997.
Once you have that policy (which is fairly stupid IMO), you have to pay for it. It was unaffordable to the public purse, so getting the students themselves to pay in some form was inevitable.
Removing that target, and replacing it with a better-considered policy for further education, might reduce the need for such fees. Except the precedent has already been set, and kids will now be expecting to g to unversiyy, even if it is not the best option for them.0 -
Still big in Belgium, bizarrelyConcanvasser said:Squareroot "A bit like Aston Villa (last season) really? "
I don't know enough about football to add to this.
My take would be that Labour is like an old fashioned Yorkshire brewery in the 1970's whose product has gone out of fashion and is losing market share.
The modernisers on the board urge it to go down the "Red Barrel" route. Abandon the old product- it just won't sell nowadays and move to where the market is, even if we privately agree thenew product is a bit shit.
The traditionalists say keep faith. If we are true to our values and selves and the public will tire of novelty and return.
Plenty of Timothy Taylors being downed to good effect in 2016. Anyone had a pint of Watney's recently?
http://www.eupedia.com/belgium/belgian_beers.shtml
http://www.belgianbeerboard.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=342&Itemid=888889940 -
Farage said he would not tell Americans how to vote but would not vote for Hillary even if she paid himTheuniondivvie said:
What time will the standard PB pieties start about people from one country sticking there nose into the politics of another? Should I hold breath in excited anticipation?HYUFD said:The big news overnight was Farage's speech at a Trump rally in Mississippi where he was personally introduced by the Donald himself. BREXIT was big news in the U.S. and led most of the news the day after and Trump clearly intends to fight a similar anti establishment, white working class focused campaign. At the moment he is doing as well with non-college educated whites as vote Leave but a little worse with ethnic minorities and significantly worse with white college graduates. However Trump almost tied Hillary with white college graduates after the GOP convention and if he can get back to that level after the GOP convention he has a real chance
0 -
Quite simply, He lied. He and Labour then go to their safe space of the NHS to escape any fallout.....NickPalmer said:Watched the clip, thought the start was a bit uncomfortable but basically came away with two points: (1) he wanted to talk about the NHS and journalists wanted to talk trivia (2) he has a case on the train incident that I can't be bothered to assess. Net effect is to make me even more favourable. I'm more concerned about the Sanders cockup, which shouldn't have gone unchecked.
Now, I'm a sympathiser so you'd expect that reaction to the clip. But two points:
- Anecdotally, two emails from non-Labour ex-constituents have come in saying that they think there is an overcrowding problem, they're glad Corbyn raised it, and the media coverage is just irritating.
- I honestly don't think that either PB leader writers or the mainstream media get why Corbyn is popular with those who like him, and in many cases (cf Ganesh) they've given up even trying. This affects punting (by making people bet on a misunderstanding) and it affects predicting what the party will do.
A distinction is needed between being widely seen as not up to being PM and not having a strong supporter base. The problem with Owen's challenge is that he may fail on both counts.
I can understand why you may prefer not to "assess" this0 -
Mr. Divvie, I agree.
Farage should not be meddling in the domestic politics of another democracy as it gears up for an election.0 -
0
-
It'll be a more honest account of the actual debt though.Charles said:
You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that0 -
From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.0 -
It shows he's untrustworthy and a liar, by omission at least. Next time he makes a similar point on any issue, more people than before will be wondering if he is telling the truth.AndyJS said:
I think the whole TrainGate thing is being slightly blown out of proportion. Most people won't remember it in a few months' time.NickPalmer said:Watched the clip, thought the start was a bit uncomfortable but basically came away with two points: (1) he wanted to talk about the NHS and journalists wanted to talk trivia (2) he has a case on the train incident that I can't be bothered to assess. Net effect is to make me even more favourable. I'm more concerned about the Sanders cockup, which shouldn't have gone unchecked.
Now, I'm a sympathiser so you'd expect that reaction to the clip. But two points:
- Anecdotally, two emails from non-Labour ex-constituents have come in saying that they think there is an overcrowding problem, they're glad Corbyn raised it, and the media coverage is just irritating.
- I honestly don't think that either PB leader writers or the mainstream media get why Corbyn is popular with those who like him, and in many cases (cf Ganesh) they've given up even trying. This affects punting (by making people bet on a misunderstanding) and it affects predicting what the party will do.
A distinction is needed between being widely seen as not up to being PM and not having a strong supporter base. The problem with Owen's challenge is that he may fail on both counts.
Not fatal in itself, but fairly unhelpful. Corbyn needs more friends outside his usual reliable circles, and he's making enemies.
Imagine if he'd come out and said: "I went on a train and it was very crowded. I couldn't find two seats together so I could sit with my wife so I sat on the floor. Fortunately a lovely guard managed to find us some seats, and we sat for the rest of the journey. But the experience just shows how overcrowded and ill-funded the network is, and how renationalisation is badly needed ..."0 -
Obama meddled in EU ref so this is Farage's revengeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Divvie, I agree.
Farage should not be meddling in the domestic politics of another democracy as it gears up for an election.0 -
Still big in Belgium, bizarrely
Thanks BannedInParis. You learn something new everyday!0 -
I hear that Tommy Tucker have received a vast order for popcorn from Proxima Centauri A .TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.0 -
Dr P,
The problem with the Virgin Trains furore isn't that the trains are routinely overcrowded (they are) but Jezza lied. They came onto the train to make a video about something of interest to the public.
They walked past empty seats and Jezza says to camera ... "There are no empty seats." He didn't say "There are few empty seats."
I'm sure the Jezzarites think it irrelevant. Politicians lie all the time and it's the message that's important, but a lie is a lie.
In the overall scheme of things, it will make little difference.
Oh, and he's a mardy arse when questioned.
Mr Concanvasser, Atlee made a difference, but he had an electorate primed for the message. I grew up in the fifties and perhaps we were a little over-nationalistic, but if Atlee had Jezza's foreign policies, Churchill would have been PM until1965.0 -
ONS
Net migration 327k yr to Mar 2016, Immigration 633k, Emigration 306k, all similar to recent levels https://t.co/nuYN0hbvJj0 -
It is a shame that, despite this silly season stunt, there is a serious problem that needs at least acknowledging, and maybe addressing, namely whether our train services are too overcrowded, especially during the morning peak, and if so, what we should do about it. Having suffered many times on the London-Birmingham Virgin trains at 8 am, I've no doubt that they are far too crowded at some times. But then, of course, if you can go at 10 am rather than 8 am, the corresponding train is virtually empty. The same applies to many of the Tubes such as the Victoria Line.
I don't think there's much we can do by building more capacity. The capacity on most commuter rail and Underground lines is reaching its limit. High Speed 2 will not be available for decades and is extortionately expensive for the highly localised relief it will give to our rail network. I think the solution has to come from managing demand. If it were the right of workers to work flexible hours from home except where the employer could demonstrate that this was impossible for business reasons, I think you'd cut down massively on rail demand (70% of which is employment related). This would do more to ease overcrowding on our railways than any amount of nationalisation, and since there is evidence that people are more productive when working from home, it could increase our deplorably low level of productivity.0 -
Remarkably, Farage might given Trump some credibility!HYUFD said:
Obama meddled in EU ref so this is Farage's revengeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Divvie, I agree.
Farage should not be meddling in the domestic politics of another democracy as it gears up for an election.0 -
That sofa looks "ram packed" not surprised he is doing what he is doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Nobody likes a show off. Heh.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/7687058390037299200 -
Mr. HYUFD, I agree.0
-
OGH clearly requires his holiday after Burnley lost to Accrington Stanley last night ....
Who ? .....
EXXXACTLY .....
0 -
I'm the master of understatement and subtleness, that's why I used 'not sure'rottenborough said:Top hole. This Thread made me LOL. Fantastically funny. Seriously TSE, you are "not sure"?
It will be a six week clusterf*** of epic proportions which will go down in political and media lore. Old journalists will sit their grandchildren on their knees in thirty years time and say 'Oh let me you tell you about my part in the election of 2020'.0 -
Sure it would.Pulpstar said:
It'll be a more honest account of the actual debt though.Charles said:
You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that
BTW have they moved to DC for new joiners? I thought not although they have less good rights than legacies.0 -
That's almost as good as the famous map of the universe with Sloane Square at the centre.TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.0 -
"Fife voters head to the polls for The Lochs by-election"
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/274145/fife-voters-head-to-the-polls-for-lochs-by-election/0 -
I know you've been off the site quite a bit, and I hope your very nasty-sounding health issues are getting better. But I do get asked this regularly and the answer is always much the same. I'm not expecting to stand again in Broxtowe or anywhere else, and am not doing anything to try to make it possible.JosiasJessop said:
So Nick, have you ruled out standing for Labour at GE 2020?
Is that an a Shermanesque denial? Not really - it was an interesting, fun job and in the current turbulent state of affairs I suppose nothing is impossible. But it doesn't seem likely, and I'm not doing anything to make it more likely. I might go for a council seat instead.0 -
Politicians avoid answering questions, dissemble around the truth and embellish stories to help their cause. Rarely do they flat out lie.CD13 said:Dr P,
The problem with the Virgin Trains furore isn't that the trains are routinely overcrowded (they are) but Jezza lied. They came onto the train to make a video about something of interest to the public.
They walked past empty seats and Jezza says to camera ... "There are no empty seats." He didn't say "There are few empty seats."
I'm sure the Jezzarites think it irrelevant. Politicians lie all the time and it's the message that's important, but a lie is a lie.
In the overall scheme of things, it will make little difference.
Oh, and he's a mardy arse when questioned.
Mr Concanvasser, Atlee made a difference, but he had an electorate primed for the message. I grew up in the fifties and perhaps we were a little over-nationalistic, but if Atlee had Jezza's foreign policies, Churchill would have been PM until1965.
Corbyn flat out lied, and Virgin Trains called him on it.0 -
Fair enough, and thanks.NickPalmer said:
I know you've been off the site quite a bit, and I hope your very nasty-sounding health issues are getting better. But I do get asked this regularly and the answer is always much the same. I'm not expecting to stand again in Broxtowe or anywhere else, and am not doing anything to try to make it possible.JosiasJessop said:
So Nick, have you ruled out standing for Labour at GE 2020?
Is that an a Shermanesque denial? Not really - it was an interesting, fun job and in the current turbulent state of affairs I suppose nothing is impossible. But it doesn't seem likely, and I'm not doing anything to make it more likely. I might go for a council seat instead.
It only takes a short period of ill-health to make you really appreciate when you are healthy. Yet when you're healthy you take it for granted ...
As it happens I've taken up jogging this week (*). Years ago I was told I'd never be able to do it, but so far I'm loving it, albeit with a little discomfort. It's not helping the headaches, but it's making me feel good about myself.
(*) Nine interval runs and eighteen miles in the last six days. Not bad for a beginner.
0 -
No doubt, but additional debt today vs a huge liability in 20 years sounds better to me. Agreed on the buyouts, but as you say, not sure anyone has what it takes to do it.Charles said:You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that0 -
He lied about there being no empty seats.Sandpit said:
Politicians avoid answering questions, dissemble around the truth and embellish stories to help their cause. Rarely do they flat out lie.CD13 said:Dr P,
The problem with the Virgin Trains furore isn't that the trains are routinely overcrowded (they are) but Jezza lied. They came onto the train to make a video about something of interest to the public.
They walked past empty seats and Jezza says to camera ... "There are no empty seats." He didn't say "There are few empty seats."
I'm sure the Jezzarites think it irrelevant. Politicians lie all the time and it's the message that's important, but a lie is a lie.
In the overall scheme of things, it will make little difference.
Oh, and he's a mardy arse when questioned.
Mr Concanvasser, Atlee made a difference, but he had an electorate primed for the message. I grew up in the fifties and perhaps we were a little over-nationalistic, but if Atlee had Jezza's foreign policies, Churchill would have been PM until1965.
Corbyn flat out lied, and Virgin Trains called him on it.
He or his entourage lied about the empty seat being reserved.
He or his entourage lied about him giving up his seat for a lady.
He or his entourage lied about a family being moved to get him a seat.
He or his entourage lied about bags being on the seats.
He may or may not have lied about his wife.
0 -
While that's true, the Democrats are defending 10 senate seats this November, and the Republicans 24, including a number (like Illinois) which are extremely vulnerable.Sean_F said:
The default position seems to be for Clinton to have a small lead, provided she isn't hit by scandal, and Trump doesn't say something ridiculous. Assuming she wins, I don't think she'll have much in the way of coat-tails.HYUFD said:The big news overnight was Farage's speech at a Trump rally in Mississippi where he was personally introduced by the Donald himself. BREXIT was big news in the U.S. and led most of the news the day after and Trump clearly intends to fight a similar anti establishment, white working class focused campaign. At the moment he is doing as well with non-college educated whites as vote Leave but a little worse with ethnic minorities and significantly worse with white college graduates. However Trump almost tied Hillary with white college graduates after the GOP convention and if he can get back to that level after the GOP convention he has a real chance
0 -
Not surprisingly - nothing has changed.PlatoSaid said:ONS
Net migration 327k yr to Mar 2016, Immigration 633k, Emigration 306k, all similar to recent levels https://t.co/nuYN0hbvJj0 -
Something I wrote on pensions which is apposite: "The nature of pensions is that it is the workers of today paying for the workers of yesterday. (It is, in other words, a clear example of a time transfer of work.) It doesn’t matter how much has been “saved” if there are no workers around in the future to do the work for the retired. Whether the method of paying these workers is through the taxation system, or through a way of syphoning off the profits of productive firms (through ownership of their shares and bonds) is rather by-the-by, as all involve the workers of today handing over resources to the workers of yesterday."MaxPB said:
No doubt, but additional debt today vs a huge liability in 20 years sounds better to me. Agreed on the buyouts, but as you say, not sure anyone has what it takes to do it.Charles said:You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that0 -
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.0 -
Ed Miliband?AlastairMeeks said:
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.0 -
I really hope this isn't a spoof (the extraneous 'O' makes me think not)..
https://twitter.com/cjswriters/status/7687147223844167680 -
It is true, but happened a few years ago.Theuniondivvie said:I really hope this isn't a spoof.
https://twitter.com/cjswriters/status/7687147223844167680 -
If Corbyn does win again next month, the question has to be how long Labour can sustain its current voting share, given that it's around 2015GE levels at the moment. There was an interesting graph posted on twitter yesterday that showed the relationship between the lead (or deficit) between the Con and Lab leaders' ratings, and the related lead in their parties' vote shares at all the elections since (IIRC) 1959. It's obviously not a perfect fit but it's a fairly strong one. The inference was that if there were an election today, the Tories would be on for about a 17-point lead (May's lead over Corbyn is better than that of Thatcher over Foot in 1983 but not quite as good as Blair's over Major in 1997).
In reality, May won't go into a GE with the ratings she has now. Her honeymoon period will wear off and I'd guess that a par rating would be around a net -20. More than that and she'll be pulling in positive ratings from other parties' supporters, which she'd be very happy with. The bigger question is Corbyn's ratings. His current scores of -40 or so are poor but he has scope to fall further with more weeks like this last one; Clegg regularly polled much worse (Corbyn does have a devoted fan club but it only amounts to about 1% of the voting electorate).
The related question is about the third parties. Surely UKIP, the Greens and the Lib Dems can't continue to poll more more than 20-25% between them with the Tories in government and Labour in crisis?0 -
Corbyn loses either way.Charles said:O
To be honest, so long as the manifesto vaguely adds up and isn't self-evidently bollocks, i think the voters focus more on character/judgement of the leadership than actual policies.Jonathan said:
I have no doubt that Labour could win on a left platform, with a few radical bits chucked in, but to do it the leadership needs to be seen as competent and attractive.Charles said:
His argument is that eg Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy could win with a traditional Labour programme (moderate only compared to Corbyn) in 2025SquareRoot said:
Few are going to listen to fantasy policies from Jezza, his policies may be on the table, but only the hard left will be listening ergo heavy defeat at the GE. QEDConcanvasser said:TSE I think you are being unduly harsh on Jez and certainly too pessimistic about the prospects of Labour in the medium term.
Yes Jez will almost certainly lead Labour to a reasonably heavy defeat at the next election (probably in 2020). However Labour were almost certain to lose it convincingly anyway, given their performance in 2015 and the effects of the boundary review.
What Jez HAS achieved is to put a whole raft of proper Labour polices; like Public Ownership of the railways, back on the national negotiating table.
Everything is cyclical in the end. At some stage, probably in the mid 2020's but possibly earlier, the public will decide to 'give the other lot a go' . When Labour does come to take its turn, Jez will have ensured it can take office as a proper Labour government and not the sort of Tory tribute act we saw in 1997.
I think the British people are too smart for that
We saw it with the Thatcher and Blair-Brown hovernments: the pendulum only swings of the alternative is acceptable.0 -
Scientists have recently discovered that news of stupidity can be transmitted at faster-than-light speeds. The greater the stupidity, the faster it travels.AlastairMeeks said:
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.
It is believed news of the current Labour Party is currently passing Sagittarius A*. The black hole swallowed it, then spat it out whilst laughing.
Which has led to another scientific discovery: really bad stupidity can escape black holes.0 -
The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.0
-
If you want to truly understand Labour's Jewish problem you should take a look at this. It isn't a simple matter of racism but what people don't want to talk about is that it's also a matter of internal Labour politics, particularly around money. I can't confirm the accuracy of the claims in this article but in some ways that's beside the point. The perception is enough.
http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/2016/4/11/jewish-money-and-the-labour-party-here-are-the-numbers0 -
Unless you can make the case that making available an additional pool of long term capital to invest will accelerate growth.rcs1000 said:
Something I wrote on pensions which is apposite: "The nature of pensions is that it is the workers of today paying for the workers of yesterday. (It is, in other words, a clear example of a time transfer of work.) It doesn’t matter how much has been “saved” if there are no workers around in the future to do the work for the retired. Whether the method of paying these workers is through the taxation system, or through a way of syphoning off the profits of productive firms (through ownership of their shares and bonds) is rather by-the-by, as all involve the workers of today handing over resources to the workers of yesterday."MaxPB said:
No doubt, but additional debt today vs a huge liability in 20 years sounds better to me. Agreed on the buyouts, but as you say, not sure anyone has what it takes to do it.Charles said:You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that0 -
Mr. Jessop, glad to hear that (the improved mood bit, not the discomfort).
Mr. JS, for a certain swimming certificate (maybe Personal Survival, I forget the name) I had to swim in clothes (I think pyjamas were the order of the day). It was far harder than normal swimming. Wearing either clothes or 'swimwear' which is effectively the same whilst in the sea seems like a rather obvious danger. Make swimming harder and drowning becomes likelier.
0 -
Which is why we should be ending DB schemes and, as Charles suggests, buying them out as well. People should save for their own retirements as you've pointed out the Australian forced saving scheme seems like a good idea, I personally like individual forced savings accounts as well.rcs1000 said:
Something I wrote on pensions which is apposite: "The nature of pensions is that it is the workers of today paying for the workers of yesterday. (It is, in other words, a clear example of a time transfer of work.) It doesn’t matter how much has been “saved” if there are no workers around in the future to do the work for the retired. Whether the method of paying these workers is through the taxation system, or through a way of syphoning off the profits of productive firms (through ownership of their shares and bonds) is rather by-the-by, as all involve the workers of today handing over resources to the workers of yesterday."MaxPB said:
No doubt, but additional debt today vs a huge liability in 20 years sounds better to me. Agreed on the buyouts, but as you say, not sure anyone has what it takes to do it.Charles said:You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that0 -
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.
Did the politicians not understand the attraction of this sort of wage disparity as a pull factor?0 -
Surely it would have to be really good stupidity to escape from a black hole. If it's bad then it doesn't talk higly enough on the stupidity scale.JosiasJessop said:
Scientists have recently discovered that news of stupidity can be transmitted at faster-than-light speeds. The greater the stupidity, the faster it travels.AlastairMeeks said:
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.
It is believed news of the current Labour Party is currently passing Sagittarius A*. The black hole swallowed it, then spat it out whilst laughing.
Which has led to another scientific discovery: really bad stupidity can escape black holes.
/pedant0 -
I thoroughly commend your pedantry.Charles said:
Surely it would have to be really good stupidity to escape from a black hole. If it's bad then it doesn't talk higly enough on the stupidity scale.JosiasJessop said:
Scientists have recently discovered that news of stupidity can be transmitted at faster-than-light speeds. The greater the stupidity, the faster it travels.AlastairMeeks said:
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.
It is believed news of the current Labour Party is currently passing Sagittarius A*. The black hole swallowed it, then spat it out whilst laughing.
Which has led to another scientific discovery: really bad stupidity can escape black holes.
/pedant0 -
Mr. Sandpit, many top politicians have no common sense whatsoever. Just look at how many wanted us to give away monetary policy to Frankfurt. Or Cameron's idiotic desire, thankfully dropped, to make all encryption hackable.0
-
That's a pretty nasty articleFrankBooth said:If you want to truly understand Labour's Jewish problem you should take a look at this. It isn't a simple matter of racism but what people don't want to talk about is that it's also a matter of internal Labour politics, particularly around money. I can't confirm the accuracy of the claims in this article but in some ways that's beside the point. The perception is enough.
http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/2016/4/11/jewish-money-and-the-labour-party-here-are-the-numbers0 -
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
There were a lot of reserved tags on seats on the published video. Not invariably admittedly.DavidL said:
He lied about there being no empty seats.Sandpit said:
Politicians avoid answering questions, dissemble around the truth and embellish stories to help their cause. Rarely do they flat out lie.CD13 said:Dr P,
The problem with the Virgin Trains furore isn't that the trains are routinely overcrowded (they are) but Jezza lied. They came onto the train to make a video about something of interest to the public.
They walked past empty seats and Jezza says to camera ... "There are no empty seats." He didn't say "There are few empty seats."
I'm sure the Jezzarites think it irrelevant. Politicians lie all the time and it's the message that's important, but a lie is a lie.
In the overall scheme of things, it will make little difference.
Oh, and he's a mardy arse when questioned.
Mr Concanvasser, Atlee made a difference, but he had an electorate primed for the message. I grew up in the fifties and perhaps we were a little over-nationalistic, but if Atlee had Jezza's foreign policies, Churchill would have been PM until1965.
Corbyn flat out lied, and Virgin Trains called him on it.
He or his entourage lied about the empty seat being reserved.
He or his entourage lied about him giving up his seat for a lady.
He or his entourage lied about a family being moved to get him a seat.
He or his entourage lied about bags being on the seats.
He may or may not have lied about his wife.0 -
Ha, very true on all counts. Governments misunderstand technology even more than they misunderstand immigration.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, many top politicians have no common sense whatsoever. Just look at how many wanted us to give away monetary policy to Frankfurt. Or Cameron's idiotic desire, thankfully dropped, to make all encryption hackable.
Apparently Spa have sold out all their grandstands this weekend, they're expecting the highest attendance in a decade thanks to a young Dutchman. That bodes well for the future of the race, on probably the best of the old school tracks still in use. Luckily the Olympics did a good job of taking attention away from the one mon break, now we have seven races in nine weeks coming up! 0 -
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
Does that mean we could use a specially modulated labour leadership for FTL communication?JosiasJessop said:
Scientists have recently discovered that news of stupidity can be transmitted at faster-than-light speeds. The greater the stupidity, the faster it travels.AlastairMeeks said:
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.
It is believed news of the current Labour Party is currently passing Sagittarius A*. The black hole swallowed it, then spat it out whilst laughing.
Which has led to another scientific discovery: really bad stupidity can escape black holes.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, it's just demented. I'm not a technophobe, but I'm far from tech-savvy, yet even things obvious to me seem to fly over the heads of politicians proposing laws in the tech sphere.
Great to hear the excellent attendance. That said, 7 races in 9 weeks sounds like it may not necessarily enhance my productivity.0 -
Maybe your wages include tips, or maybe I'm getting confused with Ukraine, where I was more recently. Either way it's a big difference, and yes, the first question they asked when they heard the British accent was what life was like in the UK and London. They were surprised to hear that I'd spent most of the past decade living somewhere else entirely!MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.
Yes, very pretty girls too, I was there on a stag weekend so we managed to find some of the, umm, more exotic nightclubs!0 -
I don't object to the state providing DB schemes as long as they're monitored by actuaries the same way as any other scheme, and fully-funded up front.MaxPB said:
Which is why we should be ending DB schemes and, as Charles suggests, buying them out as well. People should save for their own retirements as you've pointed out the Australian forced saving scheme seems like a good idea, I personally like individual forced savings accounts as well.rcs1000 said:
Something I wrote on pensions which is apposite: "The nature of pensions is that it is the workers of today paying for the workers of yesterday. (It is, in other words, a clear example of a time transfer of work.) It doesn’t matter how much has been “saved” if there are no workers around in the future to do the work for the retired. Whether the method of paying these workers is through the taxation system, or through a way of syphoning off the profits of productive firms (through ownership of their shares and bonds) is rather by-the-by, as all involve the workers of today handing over resources to the workers of yesterday."MaxPB said:
No doubt, but additional debt today vs a huge liability in 20 years sounds better to me. Agreed on the buyouts, but as you say, not sure anyone has what it takes to do it.Charles said:You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that
It is true that state pensions have a stronger income base than private ones but all the same, today's governments shouldn't be making commitments that won't have to be honoured for 30 years.
But the politics and economics of going down that road is horrible.0 -
Such a sensible comment will cut no ice with TUs or much of the general public who expect their travel arrangements to be paid by the vast majority of people who never go near a train.Fishing said:It is a shame that, despite this silly season stunt, there is a serious problem that needs at least acknowledging, and maybe addressing, namely whether our train services are too overcrowded, especially during the morning peak, and if so, what we should do about it. Having suffered many times on the London-Birmingham Virgin trains at 8 am, I've no doubt that they are far too crowded at some times. But then, of course, if you can go at 10 am rather than 8 am, the corresponding train is virtually empty. The same applies to many of the Tubes such as the Victoria Line.
I don't think there's much we can do by building more capacity. The capacity on most commuter rail and Underground lines is reaching its limit. High Speed 2 will not be available for decades and is extortionately expensive for the highly localised relief it will give to our rail network. I think the solution has to come from managing demand. If it were the right of workers to work flexible hours from home except where the employer could demonstrate that this was impossible for business reasons, I think you'd cut down massively on rail demand (70% of which is employment related). This would do more to ease overcrowding on our railways than any amount of nationalisation, and since there is evidence that people are more productive when working from home, it could increase our deplorably low level of productivity.0 -
For me, any productivity at all will be an improvement on a fortnight of watching the sun rise with the Olympics on the TV!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, it's just demented. I'm not a technophobe, but I'm far from tech-savvy, yet even things obvious to me seem to fly over the heads of politicians proposing laws in the tech sphere.
Great to hear the excellent attendance. That said, 7 races in 9 weeks sounds like it may not necessarily enhance my productivity.0 -
Relatively recent for you means a lifetime for me!OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
Perhaps they already are ...wasd said:
Does that mean we could use a specially modulated labour leadership for FTL communication?JosiasJessop said:
Scientists have recently discovered that news of stupidity can be transmitted at faster-than-light speeds. The greater the stupidity, the faster it travels.AlastairMeeks said:
What would they be laughing at that Labour was doing in early 2012?TheScreamingEagles said:From today's Red Box email
And scientists have detected what they think could be a "second Earth", after using the latest technology to look deep into space and picking up faint audio waves from light years away of another life form laughing at the mess the Labour Party is in.
It is believed news of the current Labour Party is currently passing Sagittarius A*. The black hole swallowed it, then spat it out whilst laughing.
Which has led to another scientific discovery: really bad stupidity can escape black holes.
So we know Corbyn's views on aliens? 0 -
With just a hint of the old blood libel. God help Labour. They really are disappearing up their own fundaments.Charles said:
That's a pretty nasty articleFrankBooth said:If you want to truly understand Labour's Jewish problem you should take a look at this. It isn't a simple matter of racism but what people don't want to talk about is that it's also a matter of internal Labour politics, particularly around money. I can't confirm the accuracy of the claims in this article but in some ways that's beside the point. The perception is enough.
http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/2016/4/11/jewish-money-and-the-labour-party-here-are-the-numbers0 -
Re: Ipsos poll last night.
The most unusual result is the Philadelphia one - where Clinton was previously winning fairly well.
However there was an opinion poll last week that was quickly withdrawn showing Trump ahead +5.
Is this an example of 'herding' I.e. opinion pollsters being scared of producing results at variance with others?
Also, of course, fivethirtyeight.com is fairly accurate at producing predictions based on poll weighting and averaging - however by its nature it will NOT respond well to sudden changes (tipping points)
0 -
Just think what it means for JackW!MaxPB said:
Relatively recent for you means a lifetime for me!OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
I dimly recall that families would be classed as homeless if kids had to share a bedroom. I sincerely hope that's an urban myth as it was routine for children of my generation.OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
Remember how we were smugly lectured on the first day of those nationalities being allowed into the UK how only one person from those countries had turned up at Stansted Airport? It was Keith Vaz, I recall.MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/number-of-romanian-and-bulgarian-workers-in-uk-down-since-visa-restrictions-lifted-at-start-of-year-9367046.html0 -
But houses are getting smaller, so we may have reached peak personal space. The average UK home - including older and new-build properties is 85 sq m and has 5.2 rooms - with an average area of 16.3 sq m per room.OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.
In comparison the average new home in the UK is 76 sq ms and has 4.8 rooms with an average area of 15.8 sq m per room.
In the Netherlands, new homes are 115.5 sq m (53% bigger)
In Denmark, new homes are 137 sq m (80% bigger)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14916580
(And, yes, I wish the British Broadcasting Corporation would use British, not French, measurements too, or at least provide conversions).0 -
It's not 'nearly impossible' - nearly everyone who can swim and who falls into even deep water manages to get out again - but it's certainly harder. Simply switch from board shorts to speedos or the like and you'll notice the difference.AndyJS said:FPT:
Good question. Trying to swim in clothes is nearly impossible.tlg86 said:WTF is going on at Camber Sands? The victims were apparently fully clothed.
0 -
There’ll be a Yorkshire person on here soon saying that in their youth there were 14 of them sharing a bed, and they had to take in turns to breathe!John_M said:
I dimly recall that families would be classed as homeless if kids had to share a bedroom. I sincerely hope that's an urban myth as it was routine for children of my generation.OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.
Seriously though the scenes in programmes like Call the Midwife, showing Poplar in the 50’s weren’t untypical.0 -
Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
I must admit I do find it difficult to change clothing whilst swimming.david_herdson said:
It's not 'nearly impossible' - nearly everyone who can swim and who falls into even deep water manages to get out again - but it's certainly harder. Simply switch from board shorts to speedos or the like and you'll notice the difference.AndyJS said:FPT:
Good question. Trying to swim in clothes is nearly impossible.tlg86 said:WTF is going on at Camber Sands? The victims were apparently fully clothed.
0 -
Why is that surprising. It tooks a brave person to be the fiest to go to a new country. It's rather easier when a friend of a friend is already here and can help you get started...AndyJS said:
Remember how we were smugly lectured on the first day of those nationalities being allowed into the UK how only one person from those countries had turned up at Stansted Airport? It was Keith Vaz, I recall.MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/number-of-romanian-and-bulgarian-workers-in-uk-down-since-visa-restrictions-lifted-at-start-of-year-9367046.html0 -
Mr. M, to be fair, we do mention it sometimes here. It doesn't enter general political discourse, though.
King Cole, Yorkshireman. It's not the Four Yorkshire Persons.0 -
It was if kids of opposite gender had to share a bedroom, then the house was classed as 'overcrowded', irrespective of the ages of the kids, for the purposes of social housing and housing benefit. It's what led to families of the unemployed in London being given houses that those who were working in good jobs couldn't afford.John_M said:
I dimly recall that families would be classed as homeless if kids had to share a bedroom. I sincerely hope that's an urban myth as it was routine for children of my generation.OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
If I'm ever wearing pyjamas and fall into a rough sea I should be ok as blowing them up to use as flotation aids is, as I recall, what we practiced at school.weejonnie said:
I must admit I do find it difficult to change clothing whilst swimming.david_herdson said:
It's not 'nearly impossible' - nearly everyone who can swim and who falls into even deep water manages to get out again - but it's certainly harder. Simply switch from board shorts to speedos or the like and you'll notice the difference.AndyJS said:FPT:
Good question. Trying to swim in clothes is nearly impossible.tlg86 said:WTF is going on at Camber Sands? The victims were apparently fully clothed.
0 -
Ah, thanks. I remember reading something about it on Shelter, but am currently too enervated to fact-check much.Sandpit said:
It was if kids of opposite gender had to share a bedroom, then the house was classed as 'overcrowded', irrespective of the ages of the kids, for the purposes of social housing and housing benefit. It's what led to families of the unemployed in London being given houses that those who were working in good jobs couldn't afford.John_M said:
I dimly recall that families would be classed as homeless if kids had to share a bedroom. I sincerely hope that's an urban myth as it was routine for children of my generation.OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
Public pension reform should be added to planning reform and major infrastructure projects as things that a popular government, with a well of political capital and a disfunctional opposition, should be doing sooner rather than later.david_herdson said:
I don't object to the state providing DB schemes as long as they're monitored by actuaries the same way as any other scheme, and fully-funded up front.MaxPB said:
Which is why we should be ending DB schemes and, as Charles suggests, buying them out as well. People should save for their own retirements as you've pointed out the Australian forced saving scheme seems like a good idea, I personally like individual forced savings accounts as well.rcs1000 said:
Something I wrote on pensions which is apposite: "The nature of pensions is that it is the workers of today paying for the workers of yesterday. (It is, in other words, a clear example of a time transfer of work.) It doesn’t matter how much has been “saved” if there are no workers around in the future to do the work for the retired. Whether the method of paying these workers is through the taxation system, or through a way of syphoning off the profits of productive firms (through ownership of their shares and bonds) is rather by-the-by, as all involve the workers of today handing over resources to the workers of yesterday."MaxPB said:
No doubt, but additional debt today vs a huge liability in 20 years sounds better to me. Agreed on the buyouts, but as you say, not sure anyone has what it takes to do it.Charles said:You do realise that as the cost of a shift to DC will be funded through debt you are going to end up paying anyway?
The only way you'd benefit is a buyout of DB rights and i can't see any government having the cojones to try for that
It is true that state pensions have a stronger income base than private ones but all the same, today's governments shouldn't be making commitments that won't have to be honoured for 30 years.
But the politics and economics of going down that road is horrible.
For every year they don't fix pensions the problem only gets worse in the future.0 -
We've mentioned on here about the theft of Eastern Europe's working age population by Western Europe.John_M said:Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
There are, intermittently, concerns in the NHS about taking, for example, all the Malawian, doctors. I wonder, too, if there’s an insidious long-term effect, since, I strongly suspect, it tends to be the ambitious and energetic who emigrate.John_M said:Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
Mr. Topping, wouldn't that required tight, elasticated sleeves?
We just swam. With difficulty.0 -
True, but that's the only place I've seen it. It's certainly not in the general media narrative.MaxPB said:
We've mentioned on here about the theft of Eastern Europe's working age population by Western Europe.John_M said:Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
Pub quiz question, when watching adverts on the TV in the run up to Christmas. "Shelter" provide shelter for how many people in the average winter?John_M said:
Ah, thanks. I remember reading something about it on Shelter, but am currently too enervated to fact-check much.Sandpit said:
It was if kids of opposite gender had to share a bedroom, then the house was classed as 'overcrowded', irrespective of the ages of the kids, for the purposes of social housing and housing benefit. It's what led to families of the unemployed in London being given houses that those who were working in good jobs couldn't afford.John_M said:
I dimly recall that families would be classed as homeless if kids had to share a bedroom. I sincerely hope that's an urban myth as it was routine for children of my generation.OldKingCole said:
It’s only relatively recently that we’ve had the amount of personal space in UK that we’ve had.MaxPB said:
I don't think the wages are that bad, it's more like a €100 per week iirc! I agree with you though, I went to Romania recently as well all the waitresses are very pretty and speak English, service with a smile is expected and they seemed quite happy to me. I spoke to one waitress who asked me what London was like, I gave her the no holds-barred version of it being expensive and the minimum wage being tough to live on, but she was a student and didn't want to be a waitress forever and was interested in working for some kind of art stuff which is why she wanted to come. Apparently the opportunities for the arts in Romania are very limited so a year or so of working as a waitress in order to find an opportunity in London in her chosen field was worth it. She also knew that she'd end up living with five or six other girls in a two bedroom flat because her friends have already left for London, it didn't seem to bother her, but I noticed that they don't seem to bothered by a lack of personal space there.Sandpit said:
Wouldn't you if you were from Romania or Bulgaria?MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
I was in Bucharest last year on a weekender, pretty much all the hotel and bar staff there were speaking good English and saving like mad to get to London. Their wages were something like €100 a month in Romania.0 -
Yep the interesting bit is the cascade effect. I can't find a link but there was a story of someone doing child care here from Latvia who had employed someone from the Ukraine (alongside her parents) to look after the children she had left at home....John_M said:Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
I’m a lefty. Hence politically correct.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, to be fair, we do mention it sometimes here. It doesn't enter general political discourse, though.
King Cole, Yorkshireman. It's not the Four Yorkshire Persons.0 -
Yes, the aforementioned Romania and Bulgaria are now looking to Ukraine and Belarus for the replacement of emigrated workers, hollowing out those countries too.MaxPB said:
We've mentioned on here about the theft of Eastern Europe's working age population by Western Europe.John_M said:Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
You tied a knot at the end of the arms and legs.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Topping, wouldn't that required tight, elasticated sleeves?
We just swam. With difficulty.
Seems bonkers thinking about it now, but I also remember some puffed up pairs of pyjamas floating around, so...0 -
The Poles are pulling in (say) Belorussian plumbers and care workers. The Baltics have it even worse.eek said:
Yep the interesting bit is the cascade effect. I can't find a link but there was a story of someone doing child care here from Latvia who had employed someone from the Ukraine (alongside her parents) to look after the children she had left at home....John_M said:Time for my daily plug of Stiglitz. He doesn't confine himself to the Euro, he also gives a relatively rare non-UK take on freedom of movement.
We are incredibly selfish in this country. We argue endlessly about immigration, without much thought for the effect on source countries.
I'm sure there's some fancy phrase for the looting of human capital from less-developed countries, but it's ultimately a more subtle form of beggar-thy-neighbour.0 -
Mr. Topping, ah. We were taught to huge our knees to our chest to float whilst conserving heat.
King Cole, nobody's perfect.0 -
If there's a TV camera around Keith will pretty much always be there as well...AndyJS said:
Remember how we were smugly lectured on the first day of those nationalities being allowed into the UK how only one person from those countries had turned up at Stansted Airport? It was Keith Vaz, I recall.MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/number-of-romanian-and-bulgarian-workers-in-uk-down-since-visa-restrictions-lifted-at-start-of-year-9367046.html0 -
-
He was on the radio this morning complaining about google's terrorism (lack of) responce.GIN1138 said:
If there's a TV camera around Keith will pretty much always be there as well...AndyJS said:
Remember how we were smugly lectured on the first day of those nationalities being allowed into the UK how only one person from those countries had turned up at Stansted Airport? It was Keith Vaz, I recall.MaxPB said:The rise in immigration from Romania and Bulgaria is quite shocking. Those two countries alone account for 26% migration from the EU, compared to 25% for the A8 nations.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/number-of-romanian-and-bulgarian-workers-in-uk-down-since-visa-restrictions-lifted-at-start-of-year-9367046.html0
