politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB only 7% behind according to YouGov but another, from TN

System · August 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB only 7% behind according to YouGov but another, from TNS, has the gap at 13%

With the ballots due to go out in the LAB leadership contest in two and a bit weeks every new poll is going to be looked at in the context of its impact on the race.

Read the full story here

Scrapheap_as_was · August 2016

coys and jezzaites

MarqueeMark · August 2016

34% wax? Wax what?

Tissue_Price · August 2016

MarqueeMark said:
34% wax? Wax what?

Wax on. Wax off.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Only 7% behind. Heh

perdix · August 2016

MarqueeMark said:
34% wax? Wax what?

"Was" 34%?

MarqueeMark · August 2016

The previous YouGov was not so much an outlier as a result ahead of its time....

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.

nunu · August 2016

perdix said:

MarqueeMark said:
34% wax? Wax what?
"Was" 34%?

Corbyn surge!

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Phew, Bairstow still on course for the triple hundred I predicted

Theuniondivvie · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.

Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

@aedwardslevy: BETTER POLLING EXCUSES
"my supporters are too hip for phones"
"they must have been at a rally when you called"
"what are numbers anyway"

FrancisUrquhart · August 2016

I am surprised we haven't had the old "the public doesn't really know him, when they do". To the cult members it has to be a conspiracy as they attend these rallies every weekend & there are 1000s all there to worship in front of jezza.

Essexit · August 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?

Something something Labour something something all at sea.

Or we could have a crude pun about semen.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

"Only 7% behind"?

More dry humour from OGH

ydoethur · August 2016

Curse of the new thread:

justin124 said:
We are not yet at midterm which I suggest will not arrive until 2017. If next year we face serious economic problems and the Tories continue to enjoy a lead of circa 7% , I will agree with your point. As of today ,however, the YouGov poll is no worse than Labour was doing at the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - and perhaps a bit better than at the equivalent point of the 1987 Parliament. I accept that 13% Tory leads are appalling for Labour - but that has to be seen in the context of May's honeymoon and Labour's civil war, neither of which are likely to be permanent.There tends to be a lot of fluff in these big leads whichever party is enjoying them particularly when they come about suddenly - 'Easy come easy go!'

In 1960 the divisions within Labour were very much about policy rather than about principle or personality. For example, Foot and Bevan, the two leaders of the left wing, were on opposite sides of the debate. Although Bevan died before the divisions were fully healed, there was no danger of a formal split. The party was also led by a personally popular, experienced and extremely capable politician who commanded general respect and who would very likely have been a better Prime Minister than either Macmillan or Wilson had he not tragically died in 1963 a year before an election he was favourite to win.

Right now Labour are divided on policy, on principles, on strategy, on personality and on whether the sun rises in the east (OK, so I exaggerate very slightly there). They are led by a geriatric nobody who has been in parliament for 33 years while attaining the sole distinction of having rejected the Labour whip more often than a man who spent six years as a Conservative Prime Minister, and whose intellectual capacity may charitably be characterised as rather limited. They are also being dominated by a small clique within the unions who want to use the Labour party not as a political movement but as a sort of publicity agency for their manifold frustrations.

We have just seen a government with a Prime Minister forced out, a bitter and divisive leadership election, a cabinet reshuffle storing up poison for the future, strong economic headwinds blowing, the collapse of our diplomatic position and some guff about the EU. Any halfway decent opposition would be 15 points ahead. Heck, even Miliband would be ten points ahead.

Labour's decision 'we'll compromise for power, but not for 250 seats under Yvette' is starting to look like the dumbest political mistake since Brutus forgot to kill Mark Antony.

And some sad news from Pakistan; Hanif Mohammed has died:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/pakistan/content/story/1044219.html

SouthamObserver · August 2016

This is a neat encapsulation of the Labour party currently:

http://littleatoms.com/society/impromptu-corbynia-islington-labour-debates-leadership-race

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

MarqueeMark said:
34% wax? Wax what?

Earwax building up inside OGH?

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?

I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.

SouthamObserver · August 2016

And this is brilliant on Chakrabati:

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/columnists/161762/chakrabarti’s-ultimate-problem

SouthamObserver · August 2016

Unison's politically affiated members have voted to back Corbyn 58/42.

Theuniondivvie · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.

Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.

Sandpit · August 2016

26% for Corbyn's Labour in one poll. How low can he go, and what excuse will his supporters give for the low poll ratings?

williamglenn · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.

A l'eau, c'est l'heure!

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.

Dirty mind!

Speaking of submarines:

"Comrades, this is your captain. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Tory Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today, the game is different. We have the advantage! It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations. Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Labour Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Tory patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their braying and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.

"A great day, Comrades. We sail into history!"

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Sandpit said:
26% for Corbyn's Labour in one poll. How low can he go, and what excuse will his supporters give for the low poll ratings?

They'll blame the Israeli Ambassador and the PLP for being numpties and stabbing Jez in the front

ydoethur · August 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?

I think Bligh actually had a reputation as a fairly competent and generally kind-hearted captain who had the misfortune to have a crew who decided they wanted a lazy life in the warm tropics with lots of water, food and sex rather than the hard work of sailing a ship on short rations in the blazing heat.

His record as governor on the other hand was atrocious. Even so, it would seem that the main problem was he tried to enforce the criminal law and the local criminals were unamused by it.

kle4 · August 2016

Sandpit said:
26% for Corbyn's Labour in one poll. How low can he go, and what excuse will his supporters give for the low poll ratings?

The party is split. If they do not appear so split, the rating will improve.

Thing is, that is probably correct, although has little bearing on whether it will improve enough to make winning seem viable.

ydoethur · August 2016

Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?

Scrapheap_as_was · August 2016

Yet again 2, 4 & 5 don't make double figures this summer.

weejonnie · August 2016

Latest 4-way - Rasmussen: Clinton +3 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

SquareRoot · August 2016

TNs seems about right Labour on 26%.. I think there should be a new golden rule for Labour, look at all the polls and choose the worst rating for Labour and it'll be about right.. Golden rule to apply until Corbyn is replaced.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
A l'eau, c'est l'heure!

Good moaning!

I brung you a massage: The Scrooming Ogles has a rather darty sense of hammer!

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?

Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Bairstow's doomed Superb judgement by Bairstow to leave that ball.

taffys · August 2016

Yet again 2, 4 & 5 don't make double figures this summer.

How much more evidence to the management need these guys aren't up to it?

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

taffys said:
Yet again 2, 4 & 5 don't make double figures this summer.

How much more evidence to the management need these guys aren't up to it?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.

Yaaaaaawwwwwwn

kle4 · August 2016

taffys said:
Yet again 2, 4 & 5 don't make double figures this summer.

How much more evidence to the management need these guys aren't up to it?

They are criticised for not giving people a fair enough run of games, and criticised for given people too many opportunities. I don't really know what we expect from them, given that.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.

Oh God, what have I started.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.
Oh God, what have I started.

Can I just point out that Aircraft carriers are also long, hard and full of seamen?

ydoethur · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.

I don't think Buttler is up to being a specialist batsman at Test level, frankly. Nor Bairstow. They are very good wicketkeeper batsmen.

Instead, England might be rather well served if they want unorthodoxy and aggression to look at Jack Taylor.

edmundintokyo · August 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Only 7% behind"?

More dry humour from OGH

Read the Corbyn people's twitters, this is their actual line.

SquareRoot · August 2016

TSE you have mail

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
I don't think Buttler is up to being a specialist batsman at Test level, frankly. Nor Bairstow. They are very good wicketkeeper batsmen.

Instead, England might be rather well served if they want unorthodoxy and aggression to look at Jack Taylor.

Nonsense, Bairstow is averaging 80plus this year, and his test average is above 40.

Don't diss the ginger prince

ydoethur · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.
Oh God, what have I started.

Famous mistranslation into German in a debate in the EU parliament about the moral and ethical problems of using frozen semen;

'There are severe moral and ethical problems in using very cold sailors.'

taffys · August 2016

''They are criticised for not giving people a fair enough run of games, and criticised for given people too many opportunities. I don't really know what we expect from them, given that.''

The real problem is the county system. Nobody has any idea from it who can play at test level, and who can't.

It should have been rationalised into regions a generation ago.

ydoethur · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
I don't think Buttler is up to being a specialist batsman at Test level, frankly. Nor Bairstow. They are very good wicketkeeper batsmen.

Instead, England might be rather well served if they want unorthodoxy and aggression to look at Jack Taylor.
Nonsense, Bairstow is averaging 80plus this year, and his test average is above 40.

Don't diss the ginger prince

I just said he was a very good wicketkeeper batsman! But, as Boycott pointed out, the reason he is batting so much better now than in his first incarnation is because as wicketkeeper he feels his place is more secure. Relieving him of those duties might unsettle him.

ydoethur · August 2016

taffys said:
''They are criticised for not giving people a fair enough run of games, and criticised for given people too many opportunities. I don't really know what we expect from them, given that.''

The real problem is the county system. Nobody has any idea from it who can play at test level, and who can't.

It should have been rationalised into regions a generation ago.

Yes, because that's worked really well in South Africa...

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.
Oh God, what have I started.
Famous mistranslation into German in a debate in the EU parliament about the moral and ethical problems of using frozen semen;

'There are severe moral and ethical problems in using very cold sailors.'

My friend used to work as a translator, her favourite mistranslation was 'Mrs Thatcher accused Helmet Kohl of throwing a Spaniard into the works'

TheScreamingEagles · August 2016

taffys said:
''They are criticised for not giving people a fair enough run of games, and criticised for given people too many opportunities. I don't really know what we expect from them, given that.''

The real problem is the county system. Nobody has any idea from it who can play at test level, and who can't.

It should have been rationalised into regions a generation ago.

Of course we do, we have the Lions and the age groups. Pretty much the progression these days to the senior England team is via that route.

John_M · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.
Oh God, what have I started.

She was only an Admiral's daughter, but her naval base was full of discharged seamen.

JackW · August 2016

National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2

Animal_pb · August 2016

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.
Oh God, what have I started.
She was only an Admiral's daughter, but her naval base was full of discharged seamen.

And, course, when drilling in loose order, you can have a parade ground covered in seamen.

MaxPB · August 2016

Another fourth place!

Verulamius · August 2016

For those interested in legal argument, the Labour Party case is being streamed live from the court of appeal. It is possible to access it via the mirror website:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-leadership-legal-fight-live-8607258

Other media websites may be available.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2016

Animal_pb said:

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Giving Jeremy Corbyn the leadership of the Labour party is like giving Captain Bligh his own fleet.
Though Bligh was a rotten manager of men, he was a superb seaman.
Can some bright(er) spark cobble together a metaphor out of that?
I get into trouble when I try and make puns and metaphor involving seaman,

Which reminds me of the old joke, that sadly doesn't work on the internet, but in person.

What's long, hard, and full of semen? A submarine.
Or:

The admiral's daughter said her naval base was full of cold seaman.
Oh God, what have I started.
She was only an Admiral's daughter, but her naval base was full of discharged seamen.
And, course, when drilling in loose order, you can have a parade ground covered in seamen.

A lorry driver once gave a lift to a beautiful lady hitcher, and ended up shedding his load.

malcolmg · August 2016

FPT for Max
MaxPB said:

» show previous quotes
Not from me malc, I am still a supporter of Scottish independence, I'm just not sure that the majority of Scots are.

Unfortunately not , bizarre as it seems to me, I cannot understand why you would want to have someone else make all your decisions for you. Given the population difference it can never go well for Scotland, far better to be making your own decisions to suit a small country.

RepublicanTory · August 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.

Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4

williamglenn · August 2016

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2

If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.

Blue_rog · August 2016

a gay bird flew upside down for a lark

JackW · August 2016

williamglenn said:

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2
If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.

If ....

ydoethur · August 2016

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4

Ali has batted No. 3 most of his career! Why not try him at 4 and see if it helps?

Tissue_Price · August 2016

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4

This kid can bat, though he has already chalked up plenty of off-field incident.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/county-cricket-2016/content/player/521637.html

JackW · August 2016

Steven Shepard of "Politico" reports on the early indications that the regular GOP poll bounce as pollsters move from RV to LV doesn't appear to be happening :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trumps-other-polling-headache-226888

RepublicanTory · August 2016

ydoethur said:

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4
Ali has batted No. 3 most of his career! Why not try him at 4 and see if it helps?

at County yes-when he has batted higher for england he has struggled.

John_M · August 2016

Thought this interesting. A high level assessment of post-Brexit Europe.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/limits-southern-european-alliance

Lennon · August 2016

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4

Give it a couple of years and you can have Foakes in as wicketkeeper (playing Bairstow as a specialist batsman). Depending on how his batting progresses you might have Ansari as a spin bowling opener in due course as well - and I would certainly be looking to take him on tour over the winter

ydoethur · August 2016

RepublicanTory said:

ydoethur said:

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4
Ali has batted No. 3 most of his career! Why not try him at 4 and see if it helps?
at County yes-when he has batted higher for england he has struggled.

He played 5 innings as an opener (which is not his accustomed position) and had a record comparable to the one Vince has batting in the much less exposed No. 4 slot. I hardly think that is conclusive proof that he 'should not be any higher than 6'. It is true that I wouldn't bat him at 3 in Tests, but then I wouldn't have played Root at three either. (Ali also, let it not be forgotten, averages in the mid-30s in ODIs as an opener, so the experiment while misguided was not absurd.)

Alistair · August 2016

williamglenn said:

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2
If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.

You do realise Trump probably needs to get more votes than Clinton to win?

Anyway, I thought the last few week was masterful strategy by Trump which was working brilliantly as Americans love Russia rather than a series of startling gaffes.

ydoethur · August 2016

This over rate is more shocking than a cable falling from a 500 foot pylon.

Alistair · August 2016

JackW said:
Steven Shepard of "Politico" reports on the early indications that the regular GOP poll bounce as pollsters move from RV to LV doesn't appear to be happening :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trumps-other-polling-headache-226888

I have to say I'm wary over the possibility that American Pollsters LV screen might be a bit faulty this time out. Whilst I have decried that "WWC wave" theory of Trump primary voters as unsupported by the exit poll demographics I wonder if this election will skew what a typical LV is.

Sandpit · August 2016

Catching up this afternoon, notice that once again England have forgotten how to bat.

oldpolitics · August 2016

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2
If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.
You do realise Trump probably needs to get more votes than Clinton to win?

It would help, but getting more votes is no guarantee that he will win, and getting fewer no guarantee that he will lose.

williamglenn · August 2016

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2
If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.
You do realise Trump probably needs to get more votes than Clinton to win?

It entirely depends where the votes are cast. Hillary looks likely to do well in states she isn't likely to win and Trump looks likely to do worst in states which he would lose in any case. There's no evidence that Hillary's vote will be distributed more efficiently.

kle4 · August 2016

Sandpit said:
Catching up this afternoon, notice that once again England have forgotten how to bat.

England like to make games exciting, it's a service to be inconsistently brilliant and horrible.

FeersumEnjineeya · August 2016

Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.

MaxPB · August 2016

Wow, another fourth place.

MaxPB · August 2016

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.

Not a currency trader by any means, but I wouldn't just yet, the wheels seem to be coming off the ECB QE programme, it could lead to EUR strengthening very quickly and reach near parity with Sterling.

ydoethur · August 2016

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2
If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.
You do realise Trump probably needs to get more votes than Clinton to win?
It entirely depends where the votes are cast. Hillary looks likely to do well in states she isn't likely to win and Trump looks likely to do worst in states which he would lose in any case. There's no evidence that Hillary's vote will be distributed more efficiently.

It is however true to point out that only three times has somebody lost the popular vote and won the electoral college or possibly two depending on how you reckon it: 1888 and 2000, and 1876 if you include elections thrown into the House (1824 was also put into the House, but that was a joke all around). The widest losing gap was 500,000 votes in 2000.

With the huge gaps being reported, it is hard to see Trump winning. If he were 1% behind it might be feasible, but not 7%. Something needs to change if he is to succeed (or at least, for the Republicans to win).

tlg86 · August 2016

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.

It's not a good time of year to be buying foreign exchange. I'm going to the Nurburgring in September and will wait as long as possible before getting Euros. Of course, I should have bought some before June 23, silly me.

FeersumEnjineeya · August 2016

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.
Not a currency trader by any means, but I wouldn't just yet, the wheels seem to be coming off the ECB QE programme, it could lead to EUR strengthening very quickly and reach near parity with Sterling.

I'm not a (voluntary) currency trader either, but since almost all my income is in euros and almost all my outgoings are in sterling, I have to change a few thousand every now and again. I've just changed some, but not all, of my accumulated euros.

Edit: Thanks for the insight, by the way!

FrancisUrquhart · August 2016

Professor Alexis Jay, who led the Rotherham abuse inquiry, is to be new chairwoman of national inquiry into child sex abuse.

justin124 · August 2016

ydoethur said:
Curse of the new thread:
justin124 said:
In 1960 the divisions within Labour were very much about policy rather than about principle or personality. For example, Foot and Bevan, the two leaders of the left wing, were on opposite sides of the debate. Although Bevan died before the divisions were fully healed, there was no danger of a formal split. The party was also led by a personally popular, experienced and extremely capable politician who commanded general respect and who would very likely have been a better Prime Minister than either Macmillan or Wilson had he not tragically died in 1963 a year before an election he was favourite to win.

Right now Labour are divided on policy, on principles, on strategy, on personality and on whether the sun rises in the east (OK, so I exaggerate very slightly there). They are led by a geriatric nobody who has been in parliament for 33 years while attaining the sole distinction of having rejected the Labour whip more often than a man who spent six years as a Conservative Prime Minister, and whose intellectual capacity may charitably be characterised as rather limited. They are also being dominated by a small clique within the unions who want to use the Labour party not as a political movement but as a sort of publicity agency for their manifold frustrations.

We have just seen a government with a Prime Minister forced out, a bitter and divisive leadership election, a cabinet reshuffle storing up poison for the future, strong economic headwinds blowing, the collapse of our diplomatic position and some guff about the EU. Any halfway decent opposition would be 15 points ahead. Heck, even Miliband would be ten points ahead.

Labour's decision 'we'll compromise for power, but not for 250 seats under Yvette' is starting to look like the dumbest political mistake since Brutus forgot to kill Mark Antony.

And some sad news from Pakistan; Hanif Mohammed has died:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/pakistan/content/story/1044219.html

I don't really disagree - though the Bevanite divisions relate more to the 1951 -55 Parliament in that long before the 1959 election Bevan was Shadow Foreign Secretary . It remains true that Labour did not take the lead in that Parliament until early Autumn 1961 - two years beyond the 1959 election. In the 1987 Parliament Labour remained behind in the polls until Whitsun 1989 - again two years after Polling Day.I am simply pointing out that being 7% adrift 15 months into a Parliament has plenty of precedents - it was also true of the Tories in the 2001 Parliament who went on to lose in May 2005 by a mere 3%.

Sandpit · August 2016

tlg86 said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.
It's not a good time of year to be buying foreign exchange. I'm going to the Nurburgring in September and will wait as long as possible before getting Euros. Of course, I should have bought some before June 23, silly me.

That sounds like a fun trip. Going as a driver or a spectator?

MarkSenior · August 2016

As I posted at the time , the last Yougov poll has some very strange adjustments in eliminating the DKs and WNVs and weighting by likelihood to vote . This new poll and the 2 previous Yougov polls had almost identical Con and Lab figures before this final adjustment . . It is the last poll with the 14 point lead which is the clear outlier .

ydoethur · August 2016

justin124 said:
I am simply pointing out that being 7% adrift 15 months into a Parliament has plenty of precedents - it was also true of the Tories in the 2001 Parliament who went on to lose in May 2005 by a mere 3%.

I think if the Conservatives have a result comparable to Labour's result in 2005 at any time between now and 2020 Theresa May will be a very happy woman.

MaxPB · August 2016

Balls, silver.

MarqueeMark · August 2016

MaxPB said:
Wow, another fourth place.

But a silver for Grainger and Thornley

Sandpit · August 2016

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:
Catching up this afternoon, notice that once again England have forgotten how to bat.
England like to make games exciting, it's a service to be inconsistently brilliant and horrible.

Indeed so. As someone who was a teenager in the '90s I can understand if England are sh1t at cricket. It's when they're great one week and crap the next I don't understand it!

tlg86 · August 2016

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.
It's not a good time of year to be buying foreign exchange. I'm going to the Nurburgring in September and will wait as long as possible before getting Euros. Of course, I should have bought some before June 23, silly me.
That sounds like a fun trip. Going as a driver or a spectator?

Probably just spectating though I might look at hiring a Suzuki Swift (they're really good, apparently). I did a couple of laps in 2013 in a BMW M3 and it was possibly the scariest thing I've ever done. I might look at a ride in the Ring Taxi - it's terrifying apparently.

FrancisUrquhart · August 2016

Bloody Poles....coming over here, nicking our gold medals in sitting down events.... ;-)

Thrak · August 2016

MaxPB said:
Balls, silver.

So much better than it was supposed to be, pure guts and determination got them on the podium there.

MaxPB · August 2016

Thrak said:

MaxPB said:
Balls, silver.
So much better than it was supposed to be, pure guts and determination got them on the podium there.

For sure, but they were so close to the gold. Must be agonising for them both.

MarkSenior · August 2016

MarkSenior said:
As I posted at the time , the last Yougov poll has some very strange adjustments in eliminating the DKs and WNVs and weighting by likelihood to vote . This new poll and the 2 previous Yougov polls had almost identical Con and Lab figures before this final adjustment . . It is the last poll with the 14 point lead which is the clear outlier .

Incidentally , it is the UKIP figures that are a bit strange in this poll . The data shows them around 2% down on the GE and 1% down on the last poll but the final figures have them up at 13% .

Sandpit · August 2016

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.
It's not a good time of year to be buying foreign exchange. I'm going to the Nurburgring in September and will wait as long as possible before getting Euros. Of course, I should have bought some before June 23, silly me.
That sounds like a fun trip. Going as a driver or a spectator?
Probably just spectating though I might look at hiring a Suzuki Swift (they're really good, apparently). I did a couple of laps in 2013 in a BMW M3 and it was possibly the scariest thing I've ever done. I might look at a ride in the Ring Taxi - it's terrifying apparently.

Enjoy! Didn't know you could hire cars there, how much is the excess on the insurance? Did a hot lap in the passenger seat of a touring car at Thruxton a few years back, scary how quick they go but it's all over in a minute. Eight or nine minutes of it must be like a very long roller coaster! Apparently the tyres in the ring taxi last three laps and they have to change the brakes twice a day

RepublicanTory · August 2016

ydoethur said:

RepublicanTory said:

ydoethur said:

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
Which one of Ballance and Vince is not going on tour this winter?

Surely they can't both go as back-up batsman given that they have one half-century between them this summer (assuming that Stokes comes in for Finn and Moeen is promoted up the order to make room for Rashid)?
Vince is going to get dumped from the squad.

The thought is they might bring back Buttler as a specialist batsman.

This could be the line up for the winter

Cook, Hales, Root, Ali, Stokes, Buttler, Bairstow, Rashid, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
Ali should not be any higher than 6
Stokes is a No 6
Buttler isnt good enough to be in just for his batting.
Agree on Rashid
We have to try someone else at the top of the order-Hales isnt a long-term opener and Vince isnt a 4
Ali has batted No. 3 most of his career! Why not try him at 4 and see if it helps?
at County yes-when he has batted higher for england he has struggled.
He played 5 innings as an opener (which is not his accustomed position) and had a record comparable to the one Vince has batting in the much less exposed No. 4 slot. I hardly think that is conclusive proof that he 'should not be any higher than 6'. It is true that I wouldn't bat him at 3 in Tests, but then I wouldn't have played Root at three either. (Ali also, let it not be forgotten, averages in the mid-30s in ODIs as an opener, so the experiment while misguided was not absurd.)

I am a big fan of Ali but I dont think he is a long term prospect in the top 4 so I dont think we should be planning a long term solution with a short term fix.

I haven't seen Duckett bat but apparently he is very highly rated.

Bell Drummond is constantly improving and seems to have the right temperament for the top of the order-although I dont think he is ready just yet.

Blue_rog · August 2016

I will laugh so much if there's a load of doping bans after these games and all our fourths are upgraded to bronze

Indigo · August 2016

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:
National - UPI/CVoter

Clinton 48.1 .. Trump 45.9

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/11/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-cuts-Clintons-lead-to-pre-convention-levels/2971470852071/?spt=hts&or=2
If Trump is still within 2.2% of Clinton after the last few weeks it must be worrying for anyone backing her.
You do realise Trump probably needs to get more votes than Clinton to win?
It entirely depends where the votes are cast. Hillary looks likely to do well in states she isn't likely to win and Trump looks likely to do worst in states which he would lose in any case. There's no evidence that Hillary's vote will be distributed more efficiently.

Are we entirely discounting the possibility that Trump will pick up a fat pile of blue collar voters that generally don't vote or reply to opinion polls, analogous to what was demonstrated so recently in the EU Referendum ?

Sandpit · August 2016

SouthamObserver said:
And this is brilliant on Chakrabati:

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/columnists/161762/chakrabarti’s-ultimate-problem

That's a very good article. If as suggested she was offered the peerage before she agreed to head the enquiry, she was completely compromised in the role.

tlg86 · August 2016

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:
Sterling is currently looking rather poorly against the euro. A good time to change some EUR to GBP, I think.
It's not a good time of year to be buying foreign exchange. I'm going to the Nurburgring in September and will wait as long as possible before getting Euros. Of course, I should have bought some before June 23, silly me.
That sounds like a fun trip. Going as a driver or a spectator?
Probably just spectating though I might look at hiring a Suzuki Swift (they're really good, apparently). I did a couple of laps in 2013 in a BMW M3 and it was possibly the scariest thing I've ever done. I might look at a ride in the Ring Taxi - it's terrifying apparently.
Enjoy! Didn't know you could hire cars there, how much is the excess on the insurance? Did a hot lap in the passenger seat of a touring car at Thruxton a few years back, scary how quick they go but it's all over in a minute. Eight or nine minutes of it must be like a very long roller coaster! Apparently the tyres in the ring taxi last three laps and they have to change the brakes twice a day

The excess is €5,000! They have all sorts of sensors on the cars to know if anyone has revved them too much.

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