Not surprising, though. Tommy very high profile amongst newer members from indyref days, lots of them came over from SLab (as did he). He's to the left of Angus R, too.
538 look at the "Longroom" the 2016 version of unskewed POTUS polls, that much lamented four year electoral comet that told us that McCain and Romney would comfortably beat Obama :
Nice details: "A European woman who recently tried to flee Syria was publicly beaten to death by ISIS"
Prediction: ISIS in its death throes will be like the Khmer Rouge, a devouring of the revolution's children, where everyone denounce everyone else as spies; a crescendo of cruelty and a final orgy of desperate killing....
Then silence
The worry is not the soldiers in Syria/ Iraq/ Libya but 'sleepers' in the EU and UK.
By invading Iraq, we started a war that resulted in the deaths over a million people and which, in the form of ISIS, still continues. Many will see the crushing of ISIS as yet another act of gross injustice against the Muslim (especially Sunni) people. Is it really any wonder that our actions are arousing hatred and providing fertile ground for extremism?
The more we kill over there, the more sleepers we will create over here.
The terrorist outrages in Germany and Sweden suggest that steering clear of Middle East wars is no guarantee of being left alone.
He is certainly better than ISIS but more dangerous and powerful than Erdogan. If Trump wins the presidency or even if Hillary wins (in the lame duck period of Obama's presidency) I would not rule out him creating an incident in the Baltics to justify a Russian invasion, he is an ex KGB man after all and he clearly wants to restore Russia to the strength it had when it was the USSR
Dangerous to who exactly?
And for all people like to demonise Russia, remember our political masters are allied to the likes of the Saudis...
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania most prominently and I am no great fan of the Saudis either but Saudi Arabia does not have the military power of Russia even if it does have some rather dubious dealings
So not our problem then.
The problem with Saudi is ideological, they are a far bigger threat to us than Russia will ever be.
Our problem to the extent we are in NATO as are the Baltic states and we are supposed to defend them. As for Saudi, they pose no direct threat, and despite dodgy connections with some Islamist groups that is even more so if ISIS is defeated. Russia on the other hand has the second most powerful military on the planet http://www.businessinsider.com/11-most-powerful-militaries-in-the-world-2014-4?IR=T
For what it's worth (not very much probably), Tommy Sheppard has really impressed me since his entry to WM. Toss up between him and Robertson for me atm.
Nice details: "A European woman who recently tried to flee Syria was publicly beaten to death by ISIS"
Prediction: ISIS in its death throes will be like the Khmer Rouge, a devouring of the revolution's children, where everyone denounce everyone else as spies; a crescendo of cruelty and a final orgy of desperate killing....
Then silence
The worry is not the soldiers in Syria/ Iraq/ Libya but 'sleepers' in the EU and UK.
By invading Iraq, we started a war that resulted in the deaths over a million people and which, in the form of ISIS, still continues. Many will see the crushing of ISIS as yet another act of gross injustice against the Muslim (especially Sunni) people. Is it really any wonder that our actions are arousing hatred and providing fertile ground for extremism?
The more we kill over there, the more sleepers we will create over here.
The terrorist outrages in Germany and Sweden suggest that steering clear of Middle East wars is no guarantee of being left alone.
I imagine that the fact that they see things from a religious rather than a nationalistic point of view means that they tend to regard us one Christian/Western blob rather than as British, German, etc.
538 look at the "Longroom" the 2016 version of unskewed POTUS polls, that much lamented four year electoral comet that told us that McCain and Romney would comfortably beat Obama :
Georgia, S.Carolina and Utah are bouncing in between those 2 groups.
But you can see from the primaries the areas where Trump is strong and where he is weak makes the above list with some exceptions.
Virginia, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin and Utah are no surprise.
Basically Trump is facing the usual resistance from the GOP from the primaries that is costing him a few points here and there, but in N.H and Pennsylvania there is no excuse.
Comments
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-behind-a-mysterious-website-saying-polls-are-skewed-against-trump/
http://www.businessinsider.com/11-most-powerful-militaries-in-the-world-2014-4?IR=T
Clinton 86.2 .. Trump 13.8 - Polls Only
Clinton 76.1 .. Trump 23.9 - Polls Plus
Clinton 88.7 .. Trump 11.2 - Nowcast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
With so many state polls we don't need Nate Silver to be the judge of what is going on, we can see that for ourselves.
Nationally Trump is losing by 6-8%.
State wide you have 2 groups of states, one group that seems very sensitive to Trump's behaviour, and one not.
Group A (states that record a drop of 10 points or more for Trump from his recent high):
Maine
N.H
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Kansas
Missouri
Wisconsin
Group B (states that record a drop of 5 points or less for Trump):
Ohio
Iowa
Florida
N.Carolina
Nevada
Arizona
N.York
Georgia, S.Carolina and Utah are bouncing in between those 2 groups.
But you can see from the primaries the areas where Trump is strong and where he is weak makes the above list with some exceptions.
Virginia, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin and Utah are no surprise.
Basically Trump is facing the usual resistance from the GOP from the primaries that is costing him a few points here and there, but in N.H and Pennsylvania there is no excuse.
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