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There’s an unmistakeable mood of triumphalism in the Corbyn camp after their victory in the High court over allowing all new members to use their vote and a slew of results which have been widely interpreted as showing Jeremy Corbyn really does have momentum.
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First from Bear Paw's Way in Loleta CA?0
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Loyalty and sentimentality can play no part in the race to be the pb first. Only the most merciless and ruthless survive.
Interesting piece by Don:would like his analysis to be correct but can't see it happening.
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Firth of Fourth.0
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Morning all.
This whole article reads like a promotion on behalf of the latest ‘Lets dump Corbyn as Leader’ campaign, in this case, ‘Saving Labour’. – Can’t say I’m entirely convinced by the spiel on their site, or of it succeeding, however, as with Ed Miliband’s defeat of his brother in an earlier Labour Leadership, the Union’s do have a chequered history of manipulating LL contests for a desired outcome.
“This contest is too close to call.” Isn’t that just an ad hoc way of saying ‘our figures are dire, but we don’t want to admit it’ ?
(BTW Don, your link to SavingLabour.Com is down.)
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If it's close can they do it again next year? Maybe they'd miss again but it's clearly doing wonders for the membership numbers.0
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Seventh of Ninth.
This is all just a revisionist bourgeois smokescreen to try to hide the inevitable fact that the degenerate Owenist-Smithist-Blairite-Kinnockite-Ramsaymacdonaldist clique is directly responsible for the Olympic diving pool turning green. The day is soon coming when the oppressed peasants, workers, soldiers, proletarians, dilettantes, hipsters and scumsters of the Bright New Shining Corbyn Long March Momentous Movement will rise up, cast off their shackles, drink coffee, eat cake, and smash these decadent thought-traitors into the dust.0 -
There's an extra dot in there before the com.SimonStClare said:
(BTW Don, your link to SavingLabour.Com is down.)
https://www.savinglabour.com/0 -
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Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx0 -
GMB endorsement was good for Smith but afraid I don't otherwise see the evidence for a close race.
It might be worth laying Corbyn at 1.14 if you think there's something in it but, personally, I don't and I can't see his price drifting out that much.0 -
This clip made me lol
Varney
@KatrinaPierson: Trump could sneeze and CNN would run headlines for weeks on how he attacked the environment https://t.co/rq0FzAAKkY0 -
Conflict News
CANADA: A suspect is dead after Canadian police force thwarted an alleged suicide bomb plot - AP
https://t.co/1WvAEVGSW40 -
If their membership doubles each time, we will soon all be members....edmundintokyo said:If it's close can they do it again next year? Maybe they'd miss again but it's clearly doing wonders for the membership numbers.
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The story doesn't actually say that the guy called Aaron was trying to join ISIS, but that is the only reasonable interpretation.PlatoSaid said:Conflict News
CANADA: A suspect is dead after Canadian police force thwarted an alleged suicide bomb plot - AP
https://t.co/1WvAEVGSW40 -
Smith is still a long way behind IMO roughly 2-1, but half of the Corbyn vote is wavering. If the challenger had been better known Jeremy could already be in trouble. The campaign is critical. Smith victory is unlikely, but possible.0
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Well its a brave call by Don. I hope he is right but it certainly does not feel that way. I don't have a vote but if I did it would be as simple as ABC.0
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The ABCs Corbyn vote is about 25%. The key vote is the vote open to an alternative, but yet to be convinced by Smith.0
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Still think it's a pretty clear Corbyn victory. The only real hope for the moderates is possibly reducing his huge mandate, to save us all the pain of Corbyn harping on about it.0
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The Labour Party is the political wing of the British people.IanB2 said:
If their membership doubles each time, we will soon all be members....edmundintokyo said:If it's close can they do it again next year? Maybe they'd miss again but it's clearly doing wonders for the membership numbers.
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Don is whistling in the wind. However, if Labour had had a stronger female candidate than Ms Eagle then it might have been different.0
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Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.0 -
Women have a strong track record of winning in the Labour Party, do they?Innocent_Abroad said:Don is whistling in the wind. However, if Labour had had a stronger female candidate than Ms Eagle then it might have been different.
Less tongue in cheek - the problem is not the leadership, but that Labour MPs no longer represent their core demographic. Amazing how many previous non voters, Lib Dems (but not obsessed by Europe) and WWC have volunteered to me in recent weeks that they'll be voting for Mrs May.0 -
Hahaha.frpenkridge said:
The Labour Party is the political wing of the British people.IanB2 said:
If their membership doubles each time, we will soon all be members....edmundintokyo said:If it's close can they do it again next year? Maybe they'd miss again but it's clearly doing wonders for the membership numbers.
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If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?0
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Good morning, everyone.
Although I'm not quite as pro-Labour as Mr. Brind, I have been wondering if this might be rather closer than is commonly assumed. Regardless of voting numbers, getting the GMB on-side is an undoubted and significant plus for Smith.0 -
They're just catering to their audience. It works best when it's an Olympian - Leon Taylor was superb on the diving last night.not_on_fire said:
Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.
They really need to get somebody with NBA broadcasting experience for the basketball, though, it's virtually unwatchable for anyone who knows the sport. Though maybe judo and equestrian fans would say the same.0 -
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
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You would prefer UKIP as our second Party, then?Mortimer said:
Women have a strong track record of winning in the Labour Party, do they?Innocent_Abroad said:Don is whistling in the wind. However, if Labour had had a stronger female candidate than Ms Eagle then it might have been different.
Less tongue in cheek - the problem is not the leadership, but that Labour MPs no longer represent their core demographic. Amazing how many previous non voters, Lib Dems (but not obsessed by Europe) and WWC have volunteered to me in recent weeks that they'll be voting for Mrs May.
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Reports of there being a new Micheal Howard are oft repeated, and grossly exaggerated.0
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After watching a bit of the synchronised diving it occurred to me that trends in this sport might lead it to becoming the first Olympic event to return to having naked participants for the first time in a few thousand years.0
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Yesterday evening we won two gold medals in prime time so there is some good viewing therePlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx0 -
I don't really mind what replaces it, but I think Labour has had its day. Scotland Led the way... But I would like voters (rather than clicktivists) to be represented by an opposition that is also a credible alternative government.Innocent_Abroad said:
You would prefer UKIP as our second Party, then?Mortimer said:
Women have a strong track record of winning in the Labour Party, do they?Innocent_Abroad said:Don is whistling in the wind. However, if Labour had had a stronger female candidate than Ms Eagle then it might have been different.
Less tongue in cheek - the problem is not the leadership, but that Labour MPs no longer represent their core demographic. Amazing how many previous non voters, Lib Dems (but not obsessed by Europe) and WWC have volunteered to me in recent weeks that they'll be voting for Mrs May.0 -
Smith's role would be to change the Party rules to prevent a Corbyn-style situation ever happening again (e.g. Making votes of no confidence from the PLP binding) and then lose gracefully to May in 2020HYUFD said:
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
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Why? It's the British Broadcasting Corporation supporting the Great British Olympic team. I know you lefties hate Britain, but come on, have a little pride for once. I expect Innocent Abroad will be along soon wondering why we don't just slot you all!not_on_fire said:
Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.0 -
But Corbyn probably controls the NEC, now. So Smith could end up being as vulnerable to his opponents as Corbyn.not_on_fire said:
Smith's role would be to change the Party rules to prevent a Corbyn-style situation ever happening again (e.g. Making votes of no confidence from the PLP binding) and then lose gracefully to May in 2020HYUFD said:
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
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Smith is actually probably closer to the wwc in background than Corbyn, brought up in Pontypridd rather than a Shropshire vicarage although both are middle-class. The problem for May is her BREXIT deal will annoy either the former LDs, if we are outside the single market completely or the wwc if we are still in it with free movement of any formMortimer said:
Women have a strong track record of winning in the Labour Party, do they?Innocent_Abroad said:Don is whistling in the wind. However, if Labour had had a stronger female candidate than Ms Eagle then it might have been different.
Less tongue in cheek - the problem is not the leadership, but that Labour MPs no longer represent their core demographic. Amazing how many previous non voters, Lib Dems (but not obsessed by Europe) and WWC have volunteered to me in recent weeks that they'll be voting for Mrs May.0 -
I see very little reason to think that Labour will mirror the steps of the Conservative Party.HYUFD said:
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
If Owen Smith leads them to failure why should he be replaced by someone electable? Why not a female leader or someone with the views of Dianne Abbot? If Jeremy Corbyn leads them to failure, what will be left?
The Labour party is not structured in the same way as the Conservative party, so there is no reason for it to follow the same trajectory of leader types.
Emotionally the Labour and Conservative parties are very different, which is another reason why the courses they follow are likely to be divergent.0 -
Yes Labour would introduce the same no confidence rules the Tories have if Smith winsnot_on_fire said:
Smith's role would be to change the Party rules to prevent a Corbyn-style situation ever happening again (e.g. Making votes of no confidence from the PLP binding) and then lose gracefully to May in 2020HYUFD said:
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
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Morning all,
If Don is right then BF is way off beam. It gives a 11% chance of Smith win. I assume he is piling in at these odds.0 -
With a mandate from members Smith would have years to mould the NEC in his own imageIanB2 said:
But Corbyn probably controls the NEC, now. So Smith could end up being as vulnerable to his opponents as Corbyn.not_on_fire said:
Smith's role would be to change the Party rules to prevent a Corbyn-style situation ever happening again (e.g. Making votes of no confidence from the PLP binding) and then lose gracefully to May in 2020HYUFD said:
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
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Is the upcoming Labour vote binding in some sense, or is it just advisory like the EU referendum?0
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The reason (as opposed to the emotional, which governed the timing) I left Labour - a very log time ago, now. was because I saw that membership of a political Party and belief in multi-Party democracy were incompatible.Mortimer said:
I don't really mind what replaces it, but I think Labour has had its day. Scotland Led the way... But I would like voters (rather than clicktivists) to be represented by an opposition that is also a credible alternative government.Innocent_Abroad said:
You would prefer UKIP as our second Party, then?Mortimer said:
Women have a strong track record of winning in the Labour Party, do they?Innocent_Abroad said:Don is whistling in the wind. However, if Labour had had a stronger female candidate than Ms Eagle then it might have been different.
Less tongue in cheek - the problem is not the leadership, but that Labour MPs no longer represent their core demographic. Amazing how many previous non voters, Lib Dems (but not obsessed by Europe) and WWC have volunteered to me in recent weeks that they'll be voting for Mrs May.
I find your comments, Mortimer, supportive of this view.
Labour's specific problem is, as you imply, that race (including nationality) has replaced class as the principle source of political cleavage. As soon as that happens, representative democracy is a dying animal.
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(((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
David Scane @DavidScane 10h10 hours ago
@DPJHodges one Corbyn supporter at my CLP tonight said bookies had him as favourite to win the next Gen Elec to wild applause!
Post-truth politics even reaching betting circles. Where will it end?0 -
The Tory members elected IDS and may even have reelected him had Tory MPs not removed him, if Labour members elect Smith over Corbyn it shows they are edging towards sanity and may well pick an electable leader in 2020 as Tory members picked Cameron in 2005philiph said:
I see very little reason to think that Labour will mirror the steps of the Conservative Party.HYUFD said:
He would be odds on, Labour are certainly not going to risk any more leadership elections before the general election if they manage to get rid of Corbyn, especially if it is likely to only be narrowly even if Smith does win. Smith will have a mandate from members as well as MPs too. Of course once Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader halfway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament he led the Tories into the next general election even if it was to defeat. Smith would be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDStlg86 said:If Smith did pull off a shock win, what odds would we give for him to lead Labour at the next General Election?
If Owen Smith leads them to failure why should he be replaced by someone electable? Why not a female leader or someone with the views of Dianne Abbot? If Jeremy Corbyn leads them to failure, what will be left?
The Labour party is not structured in the same way as the Conservative party, so there is no reason for it to follow the same trajectory of leader types.
Emotionally the Labour and Conservative parties are very different, which is another reason why the courses they follow are likely to be divergent.0 -
Well I guess Corbyn will be favourite to win his seat at the next election....rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
David Scane @DavidScane 10h10 hours ago
@DPJHodges one Corbyn supporter at my CLP tonight said bookies had him as favourite to win the next Gen Elec to wild applause!
Post-truth politics even reaching betting circles. Where will it end?0 -
Mr. Borough, don't forget, the odds on both the General Election and referendum were utterly wrong.
Lots of people with plenty of cash, mostly based in London, skew the markets.
Which raises an interesting question: how closely did the Betfair prices for those two political events tally with the actual result in London?0 -
The GMB endorsement was itself indicative of the problem. According to today's Metro, only 30k of the GMB's overall membership are eligible to vote in the leadership contest, so the 43k who voted (out of the 640k overall membership of the union) may well not be representative given what's clearly a minority interest in Labour activism. Are those who voted in the internal election representative of the GMB Labour selectorate base? We can't know but the suspicion has to be not.Casino_Royale said:GMB endorsement was good for Smith but afraid I don't otherwise see the evidence for a close race.
It might be worth laying Corbyn at 1.14 if you think there's something in it but, personally, I don't and I can't see his price drifting out that much.
Where the GMB's position does matter is on the Labour NEC, where its two representatives can be expected to be swing votes at the very least in the pro/anti-Corbyn battle.0 -
You certainly can get some oddities. David Miliband is on evens at BF for winner of the current Labour leadership election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, don't forget, the odds on both the General Election and referendum were utterly wrong.
Lots of people with plenty of cash, mostly based in London, skew the markets.
Which raises an interesting question: how closely did the Betfair prices for those two political events tally with the actual result in London?0 -
32% is a bar that Labour will find very hard to reach in 2020HYUFD said:
Howard only won 198 seats and 32% in 2005, he did not set a very high bar for Smith to leap to match him even if he did stabilise the ToriesMortimer said:Reports of there being a new Micheal Howard are oft repeated, and grossly exaggerated.
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Bless Don's heart. He is hopelessly wrong.0
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YouGov
The Tories were on 38 per cent, down 4 percentage points, with Labour on 31 per cent, up 3, Ukip on 13, up 1, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 8 per cent.0 -
David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
Well Cameron did give us the referendum and played a blinder for Leave.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
August poll. Ignore I say. Tories all on holiday (and grouse shooting from tomorrow).TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
The Tories were on 38 per cent, down 4 percentage points, with Labour on 31 per cent, up 3, Ukip on 13, up 1, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 8 per cent.0 -
9% for Brown? Almost one in ten of our adult population is that delusional? It's frightening.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
Bore the pants off you anyway, not worth playing spot the cheat.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx0 -
Who are these 43%? I've never met one. Possibly my age and circles I move in.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
31% is a good number for Labour, these days.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
The Tories were on 38 per cent, down 4 percentage points, with Labour on 31 per cent, up 3, Ukip on 13, up 1, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 8 per cent.
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I think least worst is better reflection , absolute crap but not as crappy as the others is much more accurate. Certainly skilled at enriching his chums for sure.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
His greatest achievement, the EU referendum, is something he'll always regret.tlg86 said:
Well Cameron did give us the referendum and played a blinder for Leave.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
On topic, it's a nice try by Don who's clearly now picked up that not only is Corbyn driving Labour towards a cliff and that Corbyn doesn't care whether he is or not, but that this might well be the last chance for those who care about labour's electoral fortunes to stop him from doing so.
But I don't believe that Smith is in the race. The constituency nominations are running nearly 7:1 for Corbyn and while the FPTP effect exaggerates Corbyn's lead (Smith is consistently picking up much more of the votes within the CLPs than the 12.7% of the 213 Associations that he's won - and there are also quite a few that have declined to make nominations), it's hard to argue that Corbyn isn't some way clear among active members. In fact, Corbyn's nominations lead has grown considerably in the last few days - he was running at 5:1 for the first hundred or so.
Is that more than offset by passive members: those who don't turn up to meetings but will cast a vote anyway? It seems unlikely. Labour's membership is now massively skewed to its post-2015 base. From the figures Mike posted the other day, at least 60% have joined since the election simply based on the increase in membership. Given that some pre-2015 members will have resigned in protest and that others will have left for other reasons, that has to give Corbyn an enormous structural advantage, even is some - seemingly like Don - have seen the light since last September.
In my opinion, the best that Smith can hope for is to restrict Corbyn to less than the 59.5% he won last year. Given that that was a four-way contest (i.e. had the votes been redistributed to '2 person preferred', Corbyn would undoubtedly have ended up well over 60%), to keep him below that level in a two-way one would represent progress of a sort - although the upping of the membership fee goes against that argument given Corbyn's utter landslide in the Supporters' section. Will he? My guess is that it'll be close on that score, but not on the headline.0 -
Pie in the sky!0
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I'm sorry, Don. This article is just an exercise of wishful thinking, though if anyone is so minded Smith can be backed at 9.2 for the race win. I'd want above 15 before going in though just to get a decent amount of trade value.0
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Yes there's a strong bovine whiff hereMaxPB said:I'm sorry, Don. This article is just an exercise of wishful thinking, though if anyone is so minded Smith can be backed at 9.2 for the race win. I'd want above 15 before going in though just to get a decent amount of trade value.
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Latest YouGov best PM ratings find just 36% of LAB GE2015 voters going for Corbyn. 31% say Theresa May.0
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Morning. Brave article from Don, given the current odds, but stranger things have happened in recent times.0
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Fun and games in Islington North, the CLP of Corbyn and Nick Palmer, last night:
https://twitter.com/steveakehurst/status/7634615234193694720 -
Mr. Runnymede, do you not mean equine?0
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Such a poll would still see the Tories up 1% on the general electionrottenborough said:
August poll. Ignore I say. Tories all on holiday (and grouse shooting from tomorrow).TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
The Tories were on 38 per cent, down 4 percentage points, with Labour on 31 per cent, up 3, Ukip on 13, up 1, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 8 per cent.0 -
I wonder if Nick was there ...
https://twitter.com/steveakehurst/status/7634629983211970560 -
They are already on 31% with yougov todaySquareRoot said:
32% is a bar that Labour will find very hard to reach in 2020HYUFD said:
Howard only won 198 seats and 32% in 2005, he did not set a very high bar for Smith to leap to match him even if he did stabilise the ToriesMortimer said:Reports of there being a new Micheal Howard are oft repeated, and grossly exaggerated.
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Mr. Sandpit, the art of betting is to disagree with as many people as possible whilst still being right0
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I'd argue vulpes - all doggy owners know its attraction and aroma.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Runnymede, do you not mean equine?
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You should hear the Spanish on RTVE - I don't think the Beeb is unusual.not_on_fire said:
Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.0 -
No, leave was always had a decent shout, as I laid out in a longish post (which in retrospect I should have submitted to Mike to be a header), the EU was fundamentally a rubbish product, the leader of the remain campaign had told us so for the last 11 years since he became leader of the Tory party. Jez, to the selectorate at least, is the best thing since sliced bread. Look at how Smith has moved to ape his policies. Which brings us to the question that is facing these mindless fools, "do I want weird tasting diet Coke or the real deal?". Sure some will recognise that the sugar in real Coke will be bad for them, especially in large doses and over the long term, but most are not minded to think beyond the next few months and want as much sugary Coke as possible rather than the slightly worse tasting, healthier alternative.Sandpit said:Morning. Brave article from Don, given the current odds, but stranger things have happened in recent times.
For the EU question, the remain side tried to present the EU as diet Coke, but the problem was that the EU was scummy, bacteria infested sparkling sewage water that looked like Coke but tasted rancid. Enough people thought better of it and went for the only other option.0 -
Miss Plato, a valid comment. Dogs just love rolling in fox muck.
Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, bit on Twitter suggests the chap intended to plant and detonate an IED in a major city.
That's an alarming turn of events.0 -
Tories down? YouGov double diamond status revoked!TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
The Tories were on 38 per cent, down 4 percentage points, with Labour on 31 per cent, up 3, Ukip on 13, up 1, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 8 per cent.0 -
Indeed, it is interesting to reflect that of the five most important political leadership posts - PM, London Mayor and the three First Ministers - only two are men. They also happen to be the two that are held by Labour. Going further back, only Scotland has ever had a female Labour leader (although in fairness it has had three of them).Mortimer said:Women have a strong track record of winning in the Labour Party, do they?
While the Conservatives have had three women finish second or higher in a leadership contest, Labour's best showing by any woman was third in 1994 when Margaret Beckett got 18.87% of the vote. Beckett was also leader of the party at the time, of course, but had inherited that position rather than won it. (It is also interesting although not very relevant to note that in every leadership election where a woman has been a candidate, they have either withdrawn (2016) or been placed last (2015, 2010, 1994).)
They have had two women deputy leaders, of course, both of whom have been acting leader at least once (Beckett in 1994, Harman in 2010 and 2015). But overall, it's a pretty unimpressive record.
This from a party which also has by far the highest proportion of active female politicians - e.g. despite having 98 fewer MPs than the Conservatives overall, they have 99 female MPs (42%) to the Conservatives' 68 (20.5%). In Wales, for another example, 15 of 29 Labour assembly members are women, but not only is their leader (all three to date) a man, but just three of eight cabinet ministers are women (one of those being Kirsty Williams of the Liberal Democrats) - if we include junior ministers, it is a grand record of five (four) out of twelve. So their record is actually even more dismal than it appears on the surface.
I have sometimes wondered if all-women shortlists are to blame. I might be being harsh, but I have noticed that in both parties women selected via such shortlists tend to be rather arrogant and complacent, and also to be very bad at campaigning. For example, in 2015 only 31 out of 77 candidates selected via AWS were actually elected, despite some eminently winnable seats on the list (it seems quite possible that a poor candidate cost Labour the 28 votes they needed in Gower, for example). Cameron's A-list seemed to have a similar negative impact (it gave us Louise Bagshawe/Mensch and Zac Goldsmith. Nuff said). However, Yvette Cooper and Angela Eagle were both selected without them, so while that may be an issue there is clearly a wider problem somewhere.
Personally, I am a firm believer in meritocracy and implacably opposed to sexual or racial tokenism. But at the same time it seems very strange indeed that apparently not one of nearly half of Labour's MPs is considered fit to be leader, and two-thirds of their Welsh ministers are drawn from less than half the party, and clearly a sign that something is wrong somewhere.0 -
Interesting that UKIP seem to have a solid base of 12-13%Sean_F said:
31% is a good number for Labour, these days.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
The Tories were on 38 per cent, down 4 percentage points, with Labour on 31 per cent, up 3, Ukip on 13, up 1, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 8 per cent.
One wonders what would move that.0 -
Only in this country do people get upset with the national broadcaster with British presenters and pundits cheer on British athletes at a sporting event. It goes beyond ordinary liberal white guilt.felix said:
You should hear the Spanish on RTVE - I don't think the Beeb is unusual.not_on_fire said:
Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.0 -
The wish is father to the thought in Don's article - mostly he's taking the unspecified canvass returns and press releases of one side as reliable sources. Smith will get a respectable result but a lot will need to change in the next couple of weeks to make it too close to call.
But the election will be a test of PB's Labour pundits, including me. My prediction at the moment - Corbyn by 57-43.
The YouGov is I think essentially a correction to the previous poll. 38-31 feels about right at the moment, which is honeymoon time for May and dominated by internal feuding in Labour. In fact I'd say it reflects the strength of the Labour brand that it's back over 30 in these circs.0 -
186 CLP nominations for Cobyn,77 for Smith.These were a pretty good guide last time.The legal outcome of the post-16 members will probably still go against the NEC-boosting Corbyn but not the Labour party's coffers,spent on legal fees.The other indicator is the recent NEC election.
Everything points to a clear Corbyn victory and he is likely to emerge fom this election the stonger,strategic incompetence of the worst kind by the leaders of the Chicken Coup.
Next psychodrama, the deputy leadership.0 -
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chinese-hinkley-backer-is-accused-of-espionage-nrgbq3d6q
"China General Nuclear Power (CGN), a state-owned energy giant, is accused of leading a conspiracy to steal American power industry secrets to speed up the development and production of Chinese reactor technology. Szuhsiung Ho, a senior adviser to CGN, is due in court next week accused of recruiting American experts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology for China in a plot that threatened US security."
The real reason why May has backed out of the Hinkley deal?0 -
One of my favourite memories was taking my greyhounds along the usual country path walk and encountering a middle aged couple with a Westie.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, a valid comment. Dogs just love rolling in fox muck.
They were acting in a strange manner - hopping about and generally looking most agitated. I went over to help - and discovered their very happy little white fluffy bundle was smothered in it. And they were trying to work out how to get him back home in the car without ruining the upholstery/their own coats.
Thankfully, I walked mine the whole way so never had this problem - but I could feel their horror. He probably ate Caesar on a cushion at home.0 -
Our new PM, following Jezza's tracksuit fashion trends...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/10/theresa-may-follows-in-margaret-thatchers-footsteps-as-she-takes/0 -
Least offensive. Major seemed weak with a divided and sleazy party, Tony Blair is now viewed as a delusional zealot, and the devil incarnate, by much of the population, and Brown as a barely functioning psychopath.malcolmg said:
I think least worst is better reflection , absolute crap but not as crappy as the others is much more accurate. Certainly skilled at enriching his chums for sure.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.
Next to that, Cameron perhaps seems unexciting but also rather normal.0 -
The way things are going, Labour will be quite happy to get 98 seats! This stopped being funny to watch in about October. It's now resembling a really nasty car crash that's going to utterly destroy rather a lot and cause massive chaos and disruption over a huge area. You can't resist rubbernecking, but you're doing it while wincing and trying not to throw up.HYUFD said:
Howard only won 198 seats and 32% in 2005, he did not set a very high bar for Smith to leap to match him even if he did stabilise the ToriesMortimer said:Reports of there being a new Micheal Howard are oft repeated, and grossly exaggerated.
0 -
If Burgon, Lewis or Thornberry can muster the PLP nominations against Watto, he's gone. Not sure they will though.volcanopete said:
Next psychodrama, the deputy leadership.0 -
Quotas and more generally any kind of positive discrimination results in substandard recruitment, sure once in a while one of the quota fillers might turn out alright, but when competition is limited to a smaller sector of the market than 100% the result is more likely to be sub-optimal.ydoethur said:Indeed, it is interesting to reflect that of the five most important political leadership posts - PM, London Mayor and the three First Ministers - only two are men. They also happen to be the two that are held by Labour. Going further back, only Scotland has ever had a female Labour leader (although in fairness it has had three of them).
...snip...
I have sometimes wondered if all-women shortlists are to blame. I might be being harsh, but I have noticed that in both parties women selected via such shortlists tend to be rather arrogant and complacent, and also to be very bad at campaigning. For example, in 2015 only 31 out of 77 candidates selected via AWS were actually elected, despite some eminently winnable seats on the list (it seems quite possible that a poor candidate cost Labour the 28 votes they needed in Gower, for example). Cameron's A-list seemed to have a similar negative impact (it gave us Louise Bagshawe/Mensch and Zac Goldsmith. Nuff said). However, Yvette Cooper and Angela Eagle were both selected without them, so while that may be an issue there is clearly a wider problem somewhere.
Personally, I am a firm believer in meritocracy and implacably opposed to sexual or racial tokenism. But at the same time it seems very strange indeed that apparently not one of nearly half of Labour's MPs is considered fit to be leader, and two-thirds of their Welsh ministers are drawn from less than half the party, and clearly a sign that something is wrong somewhere.
0 -
There are plenty on this site alone - or does that not count as having met us?rottenborough said:
Who are these 43%? I've never met one. Possibly my age and circles I move in.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron is the most popular prime minister since Margaret Thatcher according to a new poll for The Times, despite losing the referendum and the controversy over his resignation honours list.
Mr Cameron was rated a “good or great” prime minister by 32 per cent of voters, higher than Tony Blair on 20 per cent, John Major on 14 per cent and Gordon Brown on 9 per cent. He was only outstripped by Mrs Thatcher, who was popular with 43 per cent of voters.0 -
For info: Islington North CLP had its advisory leadership vote last night - 73% Corbyn, 27% Smith. There are lots of senior Labour people in the constituency with strong views of their own and I think it's a reasonable Smith showing, but the outcome wasn't in doubt.
Incidentally, I agree with Don that the court judgment today won't make a huge difference either way.0 -
What will happen though if the ruling is upheld to those £25 subs gathered from new members who registered to vote but who can now vote anyway? Will they be returned?NickPalmer said:For info: Islington North CLP had its advisory leadership vote last night - 73% Corbyn, 27% Smith. There are lots of senior Labour people in the constituency with strong views of their own and I think it's a reasonable Smith showing, but the outcome wasn't in doubt.
Incidentally, I agree with Don that the court judgment today won't make a huge difference either way.0 -
Being ashamed to take pride in your own country is a badge of basic decency and respect amongst much of the intelligentsia.MaxPB said:
Only in this country do people get upset with the national broadcaster with British presenters and pundits cheer on British athletes at a sporting event. It goes beyond ordinary liberal white guilt.felix said:
You should hear the Spanish on RTVE - I don't think the Beeb is unusual.not_on_fire said:
Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.
Nothing Orwell said many decades ago has changed and, in fact, it's got worse.0 -
Frank Skinner, "It's not often one is proud of this country, I think, because that pride in your country, in this country, always sounds a little like borderline fascism".MaxPB said:
Only in this country do people get upset with the national broadcaster with British presenters and pundits cheer on British athletes at a sporting event. It goes beyond ordinary liberal white guilt.felix said:
You should hear the Spanish on RTVE - I don't think the Beeb is unusual.not_on_fire said:
Nope, it's ideal for us - plenty of Olympics to watch before bed after a hard day's work.PlatoSaid said:Am I the only one who hasn't got used to the time difference re Rio?
Haven't tuned into a single event so far, and it's just passing me by bar clips floating about on Twitter.
Jashvina Shah
I mean come on look at the opening to Raisman's floor routine. Insane #olympics #USA https://t.co/SQsPGSitzx
Finding the jingoistic BBC commentators quite cringe worthy though.0