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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Smith’s leadership chances fall to a 6% chance on Betfair f

It is very hard to come to a view about what will be the electoral impact of today’s judgement. There is so much overlap between the new members who can now vote and those who signed up under the £25 registered supporters scheme.
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That outcome will happen because:
1. Corbyn will be quite happy to be remembered as the person who delivered a parliamentary party of the far left with double-digit representation (beating the 2 seats the CPGB achieved in 1945). Even 20 or 30 seats for a far left party will be quite an achievement from a far left mindset.
2. The 170 Labour MPs will see absolutely no way back after a crushing Corbyn win and will be looking around for a viable alternative.
3. The Lib Dems are also at a low ebb and will likewise be looking for a way back.
Pleased to have got on at over 59.5, I think a smidgen of value, risk to be assessed on a view of the book overall
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-immigration-idUSKCN10J0XC?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=57a8675d04d301186e42c03a&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
However, in broad terms, I think you're right. I don't see how this doesn't end in a split, followed by some Lib Dem link-up.
And Turkey is not behaving in a sincere manner with the EU, notably their application for membership when they have no intention of meeting any of the entry criteria.
To get to the high court.
At the moment, they are completely invisible because they've lost any legitimate claim to be a major party. 8 MPs and sub-10% vote shares is at best secondary party status and borderline minor party status. Boost MP numbers back into the 30s, 40s or beyond and they're suddenly back in the big time.
Of course there'd be a cost in terms of the further dilution of liberals by social democrats but the alternative is to risk a future of pure obscurity.
Rather an over reaction. For start a tax cut in November might be a very good idea to help aggregate demand and help the economy overcome Brexit jitters.
Joking aside I think it is a good move for him. It is all part of the detoxing of the Ed Balls brand.
PLP leader in 2020??
On what grounds do you "expect" that the "SDP" (ci-devant Labour) would get more votes than Liberal Democrat candidates? They have no big names to lead them - certainly not of the stature of Roy Jenkins and Shirley Williams who led the SDP breakaway.
@GeneralBoles: Cameron and Osborne in the front row doing the flatlining hand gesture as Ed's Paso Doble falls apart
Memorial to be held at Methodist Centrall Hall. Donations to be sent to The Peoples' Socialist Party care of Jeremy Corbyn or the Progressive Party care of Chuka Umunna dependent on preferences
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/might-balls-be-labours-answer-at-1001/
Obviously, the Batley & Spen route to this year's leadership is closed but if Corbyn does hold on to 2020 and if Balls were to return at that election, the bet would still be valid.
Using the courts to either kick Corbyn out or de-facto Smith out, is not the proper way.
Anyway, Smith is now at proper levels in the betting markets.
As for those who think the Labour moderates have any chance of survival even by joining the LD, the example of the Alliance showed that it simply added to the Liberal vote almost uniformly with one or two exceptions.
Since yougov did a poll asking about it, and the moderates got only 1/4 of the Labour vote, you can make a calculation by adding 1/4 of Labour's vote to the LD in each seat and see what they get.
And most moderates are in safe Labour seats, so the likes of Angela Eagle in Liverpool have no chance.
Corbyn is going to take that old party over the abyss, now it's just a case of how many he takes with him.
Brilliant analogy.
if there were a new Labour split, the Lib Dems would be mad not to come to some arrangement with SDP2, which otherwise might well pull support from Farron's party.
The PLP now have no choice but to push the nuclear button.
http://thetimes.co.uk/article/aaf9a394-5ccf-11e6-9bc8-dca5e34811f1
"The Tories are on course to win a 90-seat majority at the next general election, aided by boundary changes that favour the party.
Research conducted by the political website Electoral Calculus found that planned alterations to the size and make-up of constituencies would increase the Conservative majority from the current 12 seats to a comfortable 48-seat lead. Coupled with recent changes in the public’s voting intentions as support for Labour and Ukip slips, the net effect would give the Conservatives a majority of 90 seats in a smaller House of Commons."
Seems to me that setting a precedent of such basic injustice would have done the Labour party more damage than any leader, however useless/misguided.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3729026/Tories-track-HUGE-90-seat-majority-Theresa-waits-boundary-changes-calling-general-election.html
errr ok.
Too many scandals, too much baggage.
Jenkins and Williams were actually lucky that they contested the seats of their choosing in by-elections, to maximize their chance of getting elected.
The moderates don't have the luxury of switching to more favourable for them seats.
For instance Hilary Benn would have to abandon his seat where he is already an MP, to run even in the other side of the country, in a Lab-LD marginal (there are not many, realistically only 8 exist).
http://order-order.com/2016/08/08/leaked-messages-reveal-conflicts-interest-ukip-nec/
'If the LDs and Labour moderate riff raff do come to an arrangement, then I'd hope/expect full PR (Or at least the FPTP+ system) to be the overriding priority for the Gov't.'
Electoral reform was massively rejected by 68% of voters only 5 years ago
So long Labour,
we knew thee well;
but now you descend,
into the pit of hell.
Still seems like FPTP would kill them and bury them in a hole though.
As for Benn and the like, well, that all depends on how the vote would shift over the next 3-4 years. Certainly, he has a safe Labour seat right now but is it one with any great enthusiasm for Corbyn's Labour?
He's still likely to be faster than you.
I'm a regular swimmer, admittedly not the fastest but I can do a good few miles, and he'd probably have me at the turns -_-
(a) Corbyn's policies are broadly right
(b) Smith really agrees with them (except Trident) as he says and
(c) Corbynism is most successfully represented by someone other than Corbyn.
The number of people who agree with all three elements of this is relatively small, which is why most Labour MPs are not campaigning for anyone.
http://order-order.com/2016/08/08/leaked-messages-reveal-conflicts-interest-ukip-nec/
I've never swum in a 50m pool, I'd like to do so one day.
Fun predictor tool on here for the projected 600 seat boundaries. however, getting the Tories beyond 2 in Scotland is nigh on impossible - which shows the weakness of models based on just uniform swing operating.
A lot of the airlines are moving off proprietary stems these days, and moving onto standard ones built by Amadeus in Spain. I think delta is still running their own...
http://infiniteundo.com/post/25326999628/falsehoods-programmers-believe-about-time
Date and time are a software nightmare!