If the vote was rerun, LEAVE would win again, probably by a bigger margin.
Project Fear would now be seen to largely comprise a load of bollocks.
As, to be fair, was the Lave stuff on the NHS. But Project Fear swung more votes, is my guess.
Leave would win comprehensively simply because the British public don't like a bad loser.
Plus there would be original squealing squared at that second result. Twitter would melt, Facebook sink into a swamp....almost worth doing it again. I wonder how many MPs would swap sides?
If anyone was, hypothetically, thinking about a re-run, it would be mad to hold it now; mad even to talk about it. The optimum point would probably be in about two years time, as the moment of truth approaches. Or in four years time if things don't look quite so happy post-exit (although rejoining would be as problematic as leaving).
Been away for a couple of days, what is this about Corbyn wanting there to be a commons vote every time we deploy the SAS? You know the SAS that we don't acknowledge their deployments or if they are involved in anything.
Jezbollah wanting to level the playing field?
It means he's a dangerous f***ing idiot, who has no idea of the role our special forces play in keeping Britain and the world safe. Not only that but he doesn't care that he has no idea, and doesn't think it's important that he should check these things before opening his stupid mouth.
There's a more sinister explanation as well. His IRA chums will know full well what the SAS are capable of. They would love to see the SAS's operational effectiveness neutralized as would other terrorist groups and their appeasers and justifiers and friends and supporters. It suits all these groups very well if the Labour leader comes up with or utters an idea such as this. And I don't think that either Corbyn or McDonnell are quite as naïve as some might think. If you think of the IRA and Hamas as freedom fighters why wouldn't you want to take action against people such as the SAS? If you think - as Corbyn reportedly said - that IS had some "good points" and that we should strive to understand them, why wouldn't you want to hobble the SAS's capability to turn IS operatives into spots on sand?
The assumption on the markets is that Diane James is the reserve candidate for Woolfe. There is plenty of money joining the dots, so I think it has to be taken seriously.
How long is it going to take UKIP to produce a formal statement of persons nominated? Woolfe can still be laid at 4 on Betfair.
The assumption on the markets is that Diane James is the reserve candidate for Woolfe. There is plenty of money joining the dots, so I think it has to be taken seriously.
How long is it going to take UKIP to produce a formal statement of persons nominated? Woolfe can still be laid at 4 on Betfair.
Tomorrow is the vetting procedure, we should see then. Midday for all candidates, apparently, although surely not at once...!
The assumption on the markets is that Diane James is the reserve candidate for Woolfe. There is plenty of money joining the dots, so I think it has to be taken seriously.
How long is it going to take UKIP to produce a formal statement of persons nominated? Woolfe can still be laid at 4 on Betfair.
I still wonder why Nuttall didn't stand. After Farage he is probably number two on the recognition list, comes across reasonably (on a good day) in the media, and appears better suited at pitching to UKIP's new target constituency.
The assumption on the markets is that Diane James is the reserve candidate for Woolfe. There is plenty of money joining the dots, so I think it has to be taken seriously.
How long is it going to take UKIP to produce a formal statement of persons nominated? Woolfe can still be laid at 4 on Betfair.
I still wonder why Nuttall didn't stand. After Farage he is probably number two on the recognition list, comes across reasonably (on a good day) in the media, and appears better suited at pitching to UKIP's new target constituency.
Miss JGP, quite. Not only that, the first man a driver must beat is his team mate. Rosberg can't blame his machinery. If he had an equally good car in another team (and a rubbish team mate) he'd stand a better chance against Hamilton due to less pressure from knowing he has exactly the same machinery.
Mr. Max, I'd heard that double-engine line before, and if Mercedes do that, it'll likely be very good for Hamilton.
The only potential downside is it might (not sure how the rules work) push some components where he has a margin for failure into the red, so any subsequent failures would result in a massive grid penalty.
There is clearly more to this business of driving cars round in circles than first appears.
''Even more than pace, psychological resilience is, I think, Rosberg's weakness. ''
If Hamilton wins again, is it possible. I wonder, that Rosberg might be leave?? (or be replaced??). They really do seem to absolutely loathe each other.
No driver would walk mid season from the best car on the grid, contract or no contract. This year is the best shot Rosberg will ever get at the title. I still think the 4.7 on Nico is value, Lewis will be starting at least two if not three of the remaining races from the back of the grid as he's out of engines for the season.
Spa. Honda broke two whole PUs in at a single race last season for Alonso and Button, both took an 80 place grid penalty but effectively that jusy meant starting from the back of the grid. I have no doubt Mercedes will do the same for Hamilton at Spa where the overtaking potential is big and the chance of safety cars and rain is high. They could break in two new engines for him and he could finish on the podium at Spa. Those two would take him to the end of the season.
Not too sure they're allowed to do that any more, but if they can get away with it then they will!
I was thinking Spa and Monza, the next two races. That would give Lewis the best chance of two good results and will let him know where he is in the championship in relation to Nico for the rest of the season.
I thought the FIA tried to ban it but the teams saw the merit of the move and kept it.
Mr. Speedy, partly it's the legitimate reason that technology progresses and this needs to be accounted for. Similarly, if one team gets an overwhelming advantage it may be in the sport's interest to amend the rules.
However, part of it is because F1's bigwigs are tinkering clowns who don't altogether understand why people like it. Not as bad as this, but it's similar to the BBC's efforts to revamp Top Gear.
''Even more than pace, psychological resilience is, I think, Rosberg's weakness. ''
If Hamilton wins again, is it possible. I wonder, that Rosberg might be leave?? (or be replaced??). They really do seem to absolutely loathe each other.
No driver would walk mid season from the best car on the grid, contract or no contract. This year is the best shot Rosberg will ever get at the title. I still think the 4.7 on Nico is value, Lewis will be starting at least two if not three of the remaining races from the back of the grid as he's out of engines for the season.
Spa. Honda broke two whole PUs in at a single race last season for Alonso and Button, both took an 80 place grid penalty but effectively that jusy meant starting from the back of the grid. I have no doubt Mercedes will do the same for Hamilton at Spa where the overtaking potential is big and the chance of safety cars and rain is high. They could break in two new engines for him and he could finish on the podium at Spa. Those two would take him to the end of the season.
Not too sure they're allowed to do that any more, but if they can get away with it then they will!
I was thinking Spa and Monza, the next two races. That would give Lewis the best chance of two good results and will let him know where he is in the championship in relation to Nico for the rest of the season.
I thought the FIA tried to ban it but the teams saw the merit of the move and kept it.
Interesting to see if they try that trick in Spa, and if so what everyone has to say about it.
I put a small bet on Nico this morning, for all the talk everyone's heading off on holiday* for a month and there's less than a win between the top two drivers.
*The compulsory 14 day holiday is for F1 team personnel. Engine suppliers and other third party suppliers may continue to work during August. Mercedes may well bring an updated PU to Spa for Lewis to start from the back.
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
Did the pollsters really change their methodologies that often?
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
Great quote fom Farage about the UKIP NEC on Guido:
“The barrier to radical change and the modernisation of UKIP was implanted in the mid-1990’s. It is called the National Executive Committee. Many of its current crop are among the lowest grade of people I have ever met… People with no qualification in business or politics make the ultimate decisions of whom should be our candidate at a by-election. Or whether the former disgraced Tory MP Neil Hamilton should be given a route back to public life via being elected as an Assembly Member in Wales…"
Makes Labour seem comradely. It takes a heart of stone!
Mr. Sandpit, a credible bet. What odds did you get? Around 4.7?
Yep, 4.7, only small money though at this stage. There's 4.9 there now if you want some. Mr @MaxPB has thrown a feline among the columbidae with his suggestion of a double engine swap for Lewis in Spa though.
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
Did the pollsters really change their methodologies that often?
Yeap.
Mori changed it, ComRes too, TNS, BMG, ORB.
In the last week or two there was also a flurry of methodology changes.
I don't remember if yougov and ICM changed their methodology during the course of the campaign.
If someone has a complete record of the changes of methodology that occurred that would probably be Antony Wells.
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
Did the pollsters really change their methodologies that often?
Yeap.
Mori changed it, ComRes too, TNS, BMG, ORB.
In the last week or two there was also a flurry of methodology changes.
I don't remember if yougov and ICM changed their methodology during the course of the campaign.
If someone has a complete record of the changes of methodology that occurred that would probably be Antony Wells.
Did they each change multiple times though? I thought it was at most once, so hardly changing until they got the result they wanted.
Mr. Sandpit, a credible bet. What odds did you get? Around 4.7?
Yep, 4.7, only small money though at this stage. There's 4.9 there now if you want some. Mr @MaxPB has thrown a feline among the columbidae with his suggestion of a double engine swap for Lewis in Spa though.
I generally go to Spa for milk and bread, rather than a new engine!
P.S. I'm in your part of the world this week. A bit hot, like.
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
Did the pollsters really change their methodologies that often?
Yeap.
Mori changed it, ComRes too, TNS, BMG, ORB.
In the last week or two there was also a flurry of methodology changes.
I don't remember if yougov and ICM changed their methodology during the course of the campaign.
If someone has a complete record of the changes of methodology that occurred that would probably be Antony Wells.
ICM gave up a fortnight before the referendum, presumably to avoid the embarrassment.
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
Mr. Sandpit, a credible bet. What odds did you get? Around 4.7?
Yep, 4.7, only small money though at this stage. There's 4.9 there now if you want some. Mr @MaxPB has thrown a feline among the columbidae with his suggestion of a double engine swap for Lewis in Spa though.
I generally go to Spa for milk and bread, rather than a new engine!
P.S. I'm in your part of the world this week. A bit hot, like.
Only 43 today. It's due to get hotter as the week progresses!!
Send me a PM if you're in Dubai and want to get an expensive beer, I believe we may be joined by a certain Pakistani Yorkshireman later this week...
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
Mr. Llama, think I've been to most of those places at one time or another.
York Minster is a fantastic building. Steps are bloody steep, though.
I agree about York Minster, but it was a very long time ago that we visited it. Be that as it may, Herself has seen those photos and has declared Yorkshire is where we shall be spending our next holiday once the cat has gone through the great cat-flap (can't go on holiday while he is still alive in case something happens to him and we can't put him in gaol because he wouldn't like it).
''But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.''
I don;t know why, but I have a feeling Brits may be more reticent about right wing politics than Americans, and so the shy factor may be smaller.
99% of americans vote for right wing parties of a variety of flavours.
For historical reasons america doesn't have a left wing party of size, last time it was the Progressive party in the 1920's that gathered a significant share of the vote.
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
7 candidates. Theoretically, 15% could be enough. This is a bizarre way to elect a party leader. Did all of them send the nomination papers in time ?
Mr. Sandpit, a credible bet. What odds did you get? Around 4.7?
Yep, 4.7, only small money though at this stage. There's 4.9 there now if you want some. Mr @MaxPB has thrown a feline among the columbidae with his suggestion of a double engine swap for Lewis in Spa though.
I generally go to Spa for milk and bread, rather than a new engine!
P.S. I'm in your part of the world this week. A bit hot, like.
Only 43 today. It's due to get hotter as the week progresses!!
Send me a PM if you're in Dubai and want to get an expensive beer, I believe we may be joined by a certain Pakistani Yorkshireman later this week...
Thanks for the invite, but I'm at the southern end of Abu Dhabi. The beer is very expensive - except when it is free!
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
By the look of it they are struggling with the 1832 Reform Act!
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
Did the pollsters really change their methodologies that often?
Yeap.
Mori changed it, ComRes too, TNS, BMG, ORB.
In the last week or two there was also a flurry of methodology changes.
I don't remember if yougov and ICM changed their methodology during the course of the campaign.
If someone has a complete record of the changes of methodology that occurred that would probably be Antony Wells.
Did they each change multiple times though? I thought it was at most once, so hardly changing until they got the result they wanted.
I think some changed it 2-3 times.
I don't have a record of who changed it when (Antony Wells probably has a record), but in the last 2 weeks the changes where so many you couldn't make a comparison with any past poll before that period.
I was moaning about that. You constantly had polls with X in the lead and an asterisk saying that Y would have lead, or X going the other way, with past methodology.
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
By the look of it they are struggling with the 1832 Reform Act!
Everything went wrong after 1832. That was when the rot set in.
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
By the look of it they are struggling with the 1832 Reform Act!
Everything went wrong after 1832. That was when the rot set in.
I blame the Chartists. The Momentum of their day...
We're back to believing opinion polls then? Do we never learn?
Mind you, after the way Trump insulted the bereaved mother of a soldier, in normal circumstances, you would have thought he'd be finished so maybe the polls are getting it right for a change?
Trump is trying to lose. That is surely the only explanation.
We're back to believing opinion polls then? Do we never learn?
Mind you, after the way Trump insulted the bereaved mother of a soldier, in normal circumstances, you would have thought he'd be finished so maybe the polls are getting it right for a change?
Trump is trying to lose. That is surely the only explanation.
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
By the look of it they are struggling with the 1832 Reform Act!
Everything went wrong after 1832. That was when the rot set in.
I don't think the ITV early evening news is that bad. Especially when Lucy is doing the weather.
We're back to believing opinion polls then? Do we never learn?
Mind you, after the way Trump insulted the bereaved mother of a soldier, in normal circumstances, you would have thought he'd be finished so maybe the polls are getting it right for a change?
Trump is trying to lose. That is surely the only explanation.
Mr. Rentool, a friend of mine says that Lucy Verasamy is his favourite weathergirl, although the weather she predicts is never what he gets [possibly because he's American].
Mr. Rentool, a friend of mine says that Lucy Verasamy is his favourite weathergirl, although the weather she predicts is never what he gets [possibly because he's American].
She was at university with my cousin and they are still quite friendly
If the answer is, yes, we left before the job was done, then clearly the job was impossible and was never going to be done, so it doesn't even matter whether we there in the first place.
''But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.''
I don;t know why, but I have a feeling Brits may be more reticent about right wing politics than Americans, and so the shy factor may be smaller.
99% of americans vote for right wing parties of a variety of flavours.
For historical reasons america doesn't have a left wing party of size, last time it was the Progressive party in the 1920's that gathered a significant share of the vote.
The Green Party is presently polling about 3% and Sanders very nearly won the Democratic nomination
John McCain, 2008 GOP POTUS nominee, slams Trump over the Captain Khan affair :
“The Republican Party I know and love is the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Ronald Reagan.
I wear a bracelet bearing the name of a fallen hero, Matthew Stanley, which his mother, Lynn, gave me in 2007, at a town hall meeting in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire. His memory and the memory of our great leaders deserve better from me.
In recent days, Donald Trump disparaged a fallen soldier's parents. He has suggested that the likes of their son should not be allowed in the United States — to say nothing of entering its service. I cannot emphasize enough how deeply I disagree with Mr. Trump's statement. I hope Americans understand that the remarks do not represent the views of our Republican Party, its officers, or candidates.
Captain Khan's death in Iraq, on June 8th, 2004, was a shining example of the valor and bravery inculcated into our military. When a suicide bomber accelerated his vehicle toward a facility with hundreds of American soldiers, Captain Khan ordered his subordinates away from the danger.Then he ran toward it.The suicide bomber, striking prematurely, claimed the life of Captain Khan — and Captain Khan, through his selfless action and sacrifice, saved the lives of hundreds of his brothers and sisters.
Scripture tells us that 'Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends. Captain Humayun Khan of the United States Army showed in his final moments that he was filled and motivated by this love. His name will live forever in American memory, as an example of true American greatness.
In the end, I am morally bound to speak only to the things that command my allegiance, and to which I have dedicated my life's work: the Republican Party, and more importantly, the United States of America. I will not refrain from doing my utmost by those lights simply because it may benefit others with whom I disagree.
I claim no moral superiority over Donald Trump. I have a long and well-known public and private record for which I will have to answer at the Final Judgment, and I repose my hope in the promise of mercy and the moderation of age. I challenge the nominee to set the example for what our country can and should represent. Arizona is watching. It is time for Donald Trump to set the example for our country and the future of the Republican Party. While our Party has bestowed upon him the nomination, it is not accompanied by unfettered license to defame those who are the best among us.
Lastly, I'd like to say to Mr. and Mrs. Khan: thank you for immigrating to America. We're a better country because of you. And you are certainly right; your son was the best of America, and the memory of his sacrifice will make us a better nation – and he will never be forgotten."
Mr. Sandpit, a credible bet. What odds did you get? Around 4.7?
Yep, 4.7, only small money though at this stage. There's 4.9 there now if you want some. Mr @MaxPB has thrown a feline among the columbidae with his suggestion of a double engine swap for Lewis in Spa though.
I generally go to Spa for milk and bread, rather than a new engine!
P.S. I'm in your part of the world this week. A bit hot, like.
Only 43 today. It's due to get hotter as the week progresses!!
Send me a PM if you're in Dubai and want to get an expensive beer, I believe we may be joined by a certain Pakistani Yorkshireman later this week...
Thanks for the invite, but I'm at the southern end of Abu Dhabi. The beer is very expensive - except when it is free!
Have fun, enjoy the summer heat and expensive beer in the big sandpit!
''But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.''
I don;t know why, but I have a feeling Brits may be more reticent about right wing politics than Americans, and so the shy factor may be smaller.
99% of americans vote for right wing parties of a variety of flavours.
For historical reasons america doesn't have a left wing party of size, last time it was the Progressive party in the 1920's that gathered a significant share of the vote.
I would class the Democrats as Blairite, and relatively multilateral, and the Republicans a mix of UKIP+, corporatism and unilateralism. I think there's a left/right divide there.
What you don't hear much about in America is for state sponsored redistribution of income, but that's more about the type of country America is.
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
When the media is loopsided against a particular policy or person there is always a shy factor.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that. Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
Mr. Rentool, a friend of mine says that Lucy Verasamy is his favourite weathergirl, although the weather she predicts is never what he gets [possibly because he's American].
Not being a viewer of television I had no idea who Lucy Verasamy was. Now that I have used the magic of Google, I'd say she was my favourite weather forecaster too.
Jim Waterson UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
So UKIP is the last bastion standing against the relentless spread of AV
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
By the look of it they are struggling with the 1832 Reform Act!
Everything went wrong after 1832. That was when the rot set in.
For the traditional landed classes and aristocracy it is.
There is also a good argument to say that parliament was, for a time, less representative post 1832 (until the 1860s) because the concept of 'virtual' representation was lost with the Great Reform Act.
Mr. kle4, I thought much the same. The UK was there for longer than the duration of the Second World War. I especially liked the bit at the end of the report when the twonk referred to the Americans finishing what the British abandoned, or words to that effect. Does rather neglect the US-led coalition.
It is just too easy to forget about him. There are a good many in his party who think the same.
Evidence ? Link ?
There is of course no one in the Conservative Party who fails to worship the Blessed Theresa at every opportunity - until she explains what Brexit is going to mean.
The assumption is that she is running, but will only declare if Woolfe is ruled out.
Mr. Confused from Dubai here - didn't the nominations close on Sunday?
Yes, the assumption is that Diane James met the nomination conditions on the quiet. It's 50 signatures plus £5,000, which needn't be her money.
This is hillarious. She's just become the Betfair favourite - yet she's not declared herself, even though nominations closed yesterday.
Makes Labour's arguments over rules seem rather quaint. UKIP are clearly making up the rules as they go along!!
And they must all be looking on with awe at how the Tories did it from start to finish in little more than a fortnight.
Guido lists these as having been nominated
Jonathan Arnott
Phillip Broughton
Lisa Duffy
Bill Ethridge
Diane James
Liz Jones
Steven Woolfe
So Woolfe is on the shortlist and will be an even better leader than Farage, telegenic, northern, sharp and charismatic, basically everything Corbyn is not. With Labour likely to comfortably re-elect Corbyn and May to keep free movement with controls by this time next year I expect UKIP to be closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories. Corbyn better enjoy his victory, his honeymoon will be short once the first northern Labour seat falls to UKIP in a by election
Been away for a couple of days, what is this about Corbyn wanting there to be a commons vote every time we deploy the SAS? You know the SAS that we don't acknowledge their deployments or if they are involved in anything.
Jezbollah wanting to level the playing field?
It means he's a dangerous f***ing idiot, who has no idea of the role our special forces play in keeping Britain and the world safe. Not only that but he doesn't care that he has no idea, and doesn't think it's important that he should check these things before opening his stupid mouth.
There's a more sinister explanation as well. His IRA chums will know full well what the SAS are capable of. They would love to see the SAS's operational effectiveness neutralized as would other terrorist groups and their appeasers and justifiers and friends and supporters. It suits all these groups very well if the Labour leader comes up with or utters an idea such as this. And I don't think that either Corbyn or McDonnell are quite as naïve as some might think. If you think of the IRA and Hamas as freedom fighters why wouldn't you want to take action against people such as the SAS? If you think - as Corbyn reportedly said - that IS had some "good points" and that we should strive to understand them, why wouldn't you want to hobble the SAS's capability to turn IS operatives into spots on sand?
Come on, what on earth does the IRA care about the SAS? They are too busy counting the profits to be made from the post-Brexit import-export business. The queen shook hands with Martin McGuinness so perhaps PB would like to give her a word about propriety.
It is just too easy to forget about him. There are a good many in his party who think the same.
Evidence ? Link ?
There is of course no one in the Conservative Party who fails to worship the Blessed Theresa at every opportunity - until she explains what Brexit is going to mean.
Mr. Rentool, a friend of mine says that Lucy Verasamy is his favourite weathergirl, although the weather she predicts is never what he gets [possibly because he's American].
Not being a viewer of television I had no idea who Lucy Verasamy was. Now that I have used the magic of Google, I'd say she was my favourite weather forecaster too.
You may like this clip of Petroula forecasting in 2009.
''But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.''
I don;t know why, but I have a feeling Brits may be more reticent about right wing politics than Americans, and so the shy factor may be smaller.
99% of americans vote for right wing parties of a variety of flavours.
For historical reasons america doesn't have a left wing party of size, last time it was the Progressive party in the 1920's that gathered a significant share of the vote.
The Green Party is presently polling about 3% and Sanders very nearly won the Democratic nomination
If you can see it in historical terms, countries that their main enemies or oppressors where of a certain political orientation will tend to cast them as pariahs.
In the US and Eastern Europe left wing parties are social pariahs, the enemy being the USSR. In Western and Southern Europe right wing parties are social pariahs, the enemy being Nazi Germany.
Woolfe also outlined some excellent policies today on new grammars for boroughs with the lowest academic attainment and a trust with public and private backing to help young people from lower income families pay fees and living costs
Comments
Woolfe can still be laid at 4 on Betfair.
That is the problem Woolfe is facing.
In which case she would have to withdraw - so is the suggestion that that could all be done in secret?
Wouldn't UKIP at least have to announce a list of nominated candidates?
Although clearly they do on Woolfe too...
Makes Labour's arguments over rules seem rather quaint. UKIP are clearly making up the rules as they go along!!
And they must all be looking on with awe at how the Tories did it from start to finish in little more than a fortnight.
So much for men dominating politics.
Jonathan Arnott
Phillip Broughton
Lisa Duffy
Bill Ethridge
Diane James
Liz Jones
Steven Woolfe
Hillary 44
Trump 41
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night.
Next year will be interesting, with changes to aerodynamics and the return of chunky tyres.
Rumour pretty much confirmed.
Trump 41
I think I will post numbers every Monday afternoon or night. ''
Mr Speedy do you think there's a 'shy' factor in the US, with some respondents unwilling to admit they support Trump?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-trump-dnc-2016-226507
However, part of it is because F1's bigwigs are tinkering clowns who don't altogether understand why people like it. Not as bad as this, but it's similar to the BBC's efforts to revamp Top Gear.
I put a small bet on Nico this morning, for all the talk everyone's heading off on holiday* for a month and there's less than a win between the top two drivers.
*The compulsory 14 day holiday is for F1 team personnel. Engine suppliers and other third party suppliers may continue to work during August. Mercedes may well bring an updated PU to Spa for Lewis to start from the back.
But it's magnitude is unknown and probably depends on how much dominance media have in society and their reputation in it.
For instance if everyone watches TV but everyone hates Journalists it maximizes the shy factor. But you can't quantify it.
But if you are thinking about Brexit, there was no shy factor in that.
Pollsters simply once again decided to change their methodology every week until they got the result they personally thought was correct.
I think there used to be anyway. Big in the Victorian age perhaps. Maybe they aren't about any more. Whatever happened to them?
Their leader might turn out to be male, if he or she can be found.
UCATT, ASLEF and the CWU have nominated @jeremyforlabour. Jeremy Corbyn is also leading @CLPNominations by a large margin.
UKIP leadership election is first-past-the-post with lots of candidates & only c40,000 voters. So new leader could win on, say, 30% of vote.
“The barrier to radical change and the modernisation of UKIP was implanted in the mid-1990’s. It is called the National Executive Committee. Many of its current crop are among the lowest grade of people I have ever met… People with no qualification in business or politics make the ultimate decisions of whom should be our candidate at a by-election. Or whether the former disgraced Tory MP Neil Hamilton should be given a route back to public life via being elected as an Assembly Member in Wales…"
Makes Labour seem comradely. It takes a heart of stone!
I don;t know why, but I have a feeling Brits may be more reticent about right wing politics than Americans, and so the shy factor may be smaller.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/united-kingdom/england/yorkshire/articles/yorkshire-is-greatest-county-in-england/yorkshire17/
Mr @MaxPB has thrown a feline among the columbidae with his suggestion of a double engine swap for Lewis in Spa though.
Mori changed it, ComRes too, TNS, BMG, ORB.
In the last week or two there was also a flurry of methodology changes.
I don't remember if yougov and ICM changed their methodology during the course of the campaign.
If someone has a complete record of the changes of methodology that occurred that would probably be Antony Wells.
York Minster is a fantastic building. Steps are bloody steep, though.
P.S. I'm in your part of the world this week. A bit hot, like.
If there had been more about AV on PB I would have known this already.
Send me a PM if you're in Dubai and want to get an expensive beer, I believe we may be joined by a certain Pakistani Yorkshireman later this week...
For historical reasons america doesn't have a left wing party of size, last time it was the Progressive party in the 1920's that gathered a significant share of the vote.
I don't have a record of who changed it when (Antony Wells probably has a record), but in the last 2 weeks the changes where so many you couldn't make a comparison with any past poll before that period.
I was moaning about that.
You constantly had polls with X in the lead and an asterisk saying that Y would have lead, or X going the other way, with past methodology.
Donnez-moi un break, as the saying goes.
Trump has had a very bad week, though. His supporters are now trying to chip away at the reputation of the muslim soldier parent guy.
Keeping the story in the news is stupid. Either apologise or merely shut up and move on.
Did the UK leave Afghanistan's Helmand too soon?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36941267
If the answer is, yes, we left before the job was done, then clearly the job was impossible and was never going to be done, so it doesn't even matter whether we there in the first place.
“The Republican Party I know and love is the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Ronald Reagan.
I wear a bracelet bearing the name of a fallen hero, Matthew Stanley, which his mother, Lynn, gave me in 2007, at a town hall meeting in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire. His memory and the memory of our great leaders deserve better from me.
In recent days, Donald Trump disparaged a fallen soldier's parents. He has suggested that the likes of their son should not be allowed in the United States — to say nothing of entering its service. I cannot emphasize enough how deeply I disagree with Mr. Trump's statement. I hope Americans understand that the remarks do not represent the views of our Republican Party, its officers, or candidates.
Captain Khan's death in Iraq, on June 8th, 2004, was a shining example of the valor and bravery inculcated into our military. When a suicide bomber accelerated his vehicle toward a facility with hundreds of American soldiers, Captain Khan ordered his subordinates away from the danger.Then he ran toward it.The suicide bomber, striking prematurely, claimed the life of Captain Khan — and Captain Khan, through his selfless action and sacrifice, saved the lives of hundreds of his brothers and sisters.
Scripture tells us that 'Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends. Captain Humayun Khan of the United States Army showed in his final moments that he was filled and motivated by this love. His name will live forever in American memory, as an example of true American greatness.
In the end, I am morally bound to speak only to the things that command my allegiance, and to which I have dedicated my life's work: the Republican Party, and more importantly, the United States of America. I will not refrain from doing my utmost by those lights simply because it may benefit others with whom I disagree.
I claim no moral superiority over Donald Trump. I have a long and well-known public and private record for which I will have to answer at the Final Judgment, and I repose my hope in the promise of mercy and the moderation of age. I challenge the nominee to set the example for what our country can and should represent. Arizona is watching. It is time for Donald Trump to set the example for our country and the future of the Republican Party. While our Party has bestowed upon him the nomination, it is not accompanied by unfettered license to defame those who are the best among us.
Lastly, I'd like to say to Mr. and Mrs. Khan: thank you for immigrating to America. We're a better country because of you. And you are certainly right; your son was the best of America, and the memory of his sacrifice will make us a better nation – and he will never be forgotten."
What you don't hear much about in America is for state sponsored redistribution of income, but that's more about the type of country America is.
There is also a good argument to say that parliament was, for a time, less representative post 1832 (until the 1860s) because the concept of 'virtual' representation was lost with the Great Reform Act.
Mr. kle4, I thought much the same. The UK was there for longer than the duration of the Second World War. I especially liked the bit at the end of the report when the twonk referred to the Americans finishing what the British abandoned, or words to that effect. Does rather neglect the US-led coalition.
There is of course no one in the Conservative Party who fails to worship the Blessed Theresa at every opportunity - until she explains what Brexit is going to mean.
Corbyn better enjoy his victory, his honeymoon will be short once the first northern Labour seat falls to UKIP in a by election
It gets very hot in Greece sometimes!
https://youtu.be/PUfJhwVXVMA
In the US and Eastern Europe left wing parties are social pariahs, the enemy being the USSR.
In Western and Southern Europe right wing parties are social pariahs, the enemy being Nazi Germany.