They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
For the LDs in particular winning local councils has been a precursor to winning the local MP so you are right on that
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
They won the war, they still need to win the peace ie for their voters that means a complete end to freedom of movement
Snap!
Good to see we are on the same page
The Conservatives are enjoying a honeymoon. About 20% of UKIP voters from 2015 have switched to the Conservatives. If May satisfies them, they'll stay there. If she doesn't, they'll switch back.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Who cares? They were really only ever a flag of convenience to get us out of the EU. Now that has been achieved they have no useful function left to serve.
They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
For the LDs in particular winning local councils has been a precursor to winning the local MP so you are right on that
They're a vital building block for the Lib Dems. If they can turn in solid local election results till 2020, they could perhaps get back to 15-18 seats, next time.
They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
For the LDs in particular winning local councils has been a precursor to winning the local MP so you are right on that
They're a vital building block for the Lib Dems. If they can turn in solid local election results till 2020, they could perhaps get back to 15-18 seats, next time.
Possible UKIP manifesto principles: - End to freedom of movement - Abolish foreign aid budget, use savings to increase NHS funding - Tax credits and housing benefits for UK citizens only - Introduce electoral reform and right of recall for MPs - End the internal market for the NHS, replace with elected regional boards - Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland - Loosen regulation for small companies e.g. end universal pension entitlement - Reintroduce grammar schools
They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
For the LDs in particular winning local councils has been a precursor to winning the local MP so you are right on that
They're a vital building block for the Lib Dems. If they can turn in solid local election results till 2020, they could perhaps get back to 15-18 seats, next time.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Who cares? They were really only ever a flag of convenience to get us out of the EU. Now that has been achieved they have no useful function left to serve.
Says an upper middle class, reasonably well off Leaver whose main concern was sovereignty not immigration. The white working class and lower middle class voters who voted for Leave did so primarily because of immigration and ending free movement is much more important for them and they will be UKIP's main target audience now
They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
For the LDs in particular winning local councils has been a precursor to winning the local MP so you are right on that
They're a vital building block for the Lib Dems. If they can turn in solid local election results till 2020, they could perhaps get back to 15-18 seats, next time.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
They won the war, they still need to win the peace ie for their voters that means a complete end to freedom of movement
Snap!
Good to see we are on the same page
The Conservatives are enjoying a honeymoon. About 20% of UKIP voters from 2015 have switched to the Conservatives. If May satisfies them, they'll stay there. If she doesn't, they'll switch back.
Indeed, unless May ends freedom of movement rather than simply controls it some of those potential UKIP voters will switch back
If Woolfe is not capable of keeping his part membership up to date or getting a nomination paper in on time then UKIP will do well not to have him as their leader.
Forty percent of those surveyed said they liked how Democrats described the state of America today during convention speeches, according to the poll, while 45 percent disliked it.
If Woolfe is not capable of keeping his part membership up to date or getting a nomination paper in on time then UKIP will do well not to have him as their leader.
Woolfe has a letter from the UKIP membership secretary confirming that he counted as a member in good standing by virtue of being a MEP, which is why the party never sent him any membership forms. But that basic truth doesn't suit the story the Carswell/Anti-Farage wing of the kippers wants to spread around. Expect to see similar reasons for the "technical" problems in receiving his nominations
Forty percent of those surveyed said they liked how Democrats described the state of America today during convention speeches, according to the poll, while 45 percent disliked it.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Who cares? They were really only ever a flag of convenience to get us out of the EU. Now that has been achieved they have no useful function left to serve.
Says an upper middle class, reasonably well off Leaver whose main concern was sovereignty not immigration. The white working class and lower middle class voters who voted for Leave did so primarily because of immigration and ending free movement is much more important for them and they will be UKIP's main target audience now
I fall in to this working class Leaver bracket, many (most?) will be happy with controls on low skilled immigration.
If the new UKIP leader does not make much of an impact then Farrage might well return as UKIP leader in 2019 to fight the 2020 general election after a few years rest and recreation.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Who cares? They were really only ever a flag of convenience to get us out of the EU. Now that has been achieved they have no useful function left to serve.
It seems to me that, given the problems in the Labour party, the UKIP activists may well perceive a gap in the market for the skills they have developed.
By developing a full manifesto and re-badging on the back of the successful referendum outcome, they could turn themselves into a party with genuine Westminster appeal.
I fall in to this working class Leaver bracket, many (most?) will be happy with controls on low skilled immigration.
That will upset the people who voted Leave because they thought it would allow us to relax the rules on family reunions from outside the EU.
Whichever way you cut it there will be significant parts of the Leave coalition who are unhappy with the outcome.
The substantial number of Leavers that apparently believe Brexit will mean a reduction in non EU immigration are definitely, definitely going to be disappointed.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Who cares? They were really only ever a flag of convenience to get us out of the EU. Now that has been achieved they have no useful function left to serve.
Says an upper middle class, reasonably well off Leaver whose main concern was sovereignty not immigration. The white working class and lower middle class voters who voted for Leave did so primarily because of immigration and ending free movement is much more important for them and they will be UKIP's main target audience now
I fall in to this working class Leaver bracket, many (most?) will be happy with controls on low skilled immigration.
The Leave voters in my circle didn't just want nebulous "controls", they wanted much lower numbers of immigrants coming (though not no immigrants at all).
I fall in to this working class Leaver bracket, many (most?) will be happy with controls on low skilled immigration.
That will upset the people who voted Leave because they thought it would allow us to relax the rules on family reunions from outside the EU.
Whichever way you cut it there will be significant parts of the Leave coalition who are unhappy with the outcome.
The substantial number of Leavers that apparently believe Brexit will mean a reduction in non EU immigration are definitely, definitely going to be disappointed.
Anyone got the clip of the Leave voter saying it was all about immigration, and to be honest it's all right for the Poles to come over but not Muslims. He's going to be super disappointed.
Despite HYUFD's constant daily attempts to talk up UKIP;s non existent chances of progressing and ignoring all the evidence of terminal decline , UKIP and their putative leaders themselves show how unfit for office they are .
Even now UKIP are polling about 12%, exactly their total at the 2015 general election, hardly a party in terminal decline
Dream On . In 32 real elections last month they managed 6% even below the Greens
Council by-elections are utterly irrelevant and you also need to look at what they polled previously. If council by-elections were predictors of political fortunes then William Hague and Ed Miliband would have won landslides.
In actual opinion polling this month UKIP have polled 13% with ICM, 12% with Survation, 13% with Yougov and 15% with Opinium, ie virtually unchanged from the 12% they won in 2015 and with Opinium actually slightly up. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And Ipsos Mori which you conveniently ignored or forgot UKIP were 8%
Who cares? They were really only ever a flag of convenience to get us out of the EU. Now that has been achieved they have no useful function left to serve.
Says an upper middle class, reasonably well off Leaver whose main concern was sovereignty not immigration. The white working class and lower middle class voters who voted for Leave did so primarily because of immigration and ending free movement is much more important for them and they will be UKIP's main target audience now
I fall in to this working class Leaver bracket, many (most?) will be happy with controls on low skilled immigration.
According to comres 54% of Leavers would be happy with some limits on free movement to stay in the single market but 35% of Leavers want to end the rules on free movement even if that means leaving the single market. So even if a majority of Leave voters are happy with controls on low skilled immigration over a third of Leave voters will not be which is a significant pool of voters for UKIP to target http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BBC-News_Tables_Brexit-Expectations_11072016.pdf
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
In positioning himself as extreme, he is applying much of the approach he says he adopts when he makes business deals. And in The Art of the Deal he proposes that the stronger side in any negotiation is the one who is most willing to pull out. During the race for the Republican nomination, he also specifically said that if his polls fell, he'd get out. There's no reason to think the same won't apply in the contest against Clinton. Why waste money?
While similarities exist between Trump and Leave, I don't believe in the existence of hordes of "shy Trumpers". A polling disaster is unlikely. If Trump wins, it will probably be after establishing a consistent lead in the polls. If he doesn't manage that, maybe he'll do what he said he would - withdraw.
There aren't any parallels to go by, but surely the replacement candidate would be likely to be someone who is well known in people's minds from the current presidential election cycle.
Which narrows it down to
Kasich Cruz Rubio Pence and just possibly, Bush
Good thing I backed them all today at ridiculously low prices, really
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
In positioning himself as extreme, he is applying much of the approach he says he adopts when he makes business deals. And in The Art of the Deal he proposes that the stronger side in any negotiation is the one who is most willing to pull out. During the race for the Republican nomination, he also specifically said that if his polls fell, he'd get out. There's no reason to think the same won't apply in the contest against Clinton. Why waste money?
While similarities exist between Trump and Leave, I don't believe in the existence of hordes of "shy Trumpers". A polling disaster is unlikely. If Trump wins, it will probably be after establishing a consistent lead in the polls. If he doesn't manage that, maybe he'll do what he said he would - withdraw.
There aren't any parallels to go by, but surely the replacement candidate would be likely to be someone who is well known in people's minds from the current presidential election cycle.
Which narrows it down to
Kasich Cruz Rubio Pence and just possibly, Bush
Good thing I backed them all today at ridiculously low prices, really
He can't withdraw as the GOP convention is over and he has been nominated as the official GOP candidate and his name will appear on the ballot as their nominee even if he now has doubts
I fall in to this working class Leaver bracket, many (most?) will be happy with controls on low skilled immigration.
That will upset the people who voted Leave because they thought it would allow us to relax the rules on family reunions from outside the EU.
Whichever way you cut it there will be significant parts of the Leave coalition who are unhappy with the outcome.
The substantial number of Leavers that apparently believe Brexit will mean a reduction in non EU immigration are definitely, definitely going to be disappointed.
Anyone got the clip of the Leave voter saying it was all about immigration, and to be honest it's all right for the Poles to come over but not Muslims. He's going to be super disappointed.
Oops. That's one of the problems with racism - it's hard to be a nuanced racist. Over the last ten years quite a lot of common ground grew up between the various racist groups in the EU, and you could see that a lot of UK racists were happy that EU membership meant that they'd found a lot of new allies among White Christians from other EU countries, and that the free movement in the EU was putting the squeeze on immigration from other continents. But they still had to vote Leave, didn't they...
Has this post been caught in a spam filter since October 2015? It's much too late for that now, and Trump thinks he is winning, not losing.
Why is it too late? There are three months to go. What if he drops to 10% behind and stays there for the whole of September? He doesn't care about the Republican party.
I don't think this is likely in the next month. For a start, he'll get a boost from the Green party's convention.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
I'm not a Leaver. My motto is "You broke it - you fix it."
What the potential UKIP voter wants is not a lawyer as a leader .People have a bias now that a Lawyer Politician = Low Integrity Part of Trump`s appeal to his audience is that he is not a lawyer and he is prepared to take on the politically correct establishment. The mainstream media like Woolfe and Suzanne Evans because however talented they are they are also essentially PC people. UKIP should target the sizeable anti- political correctness audience as with the Tories now electing the ultra PC Theresa May following the ultra PC Cameron basically UKIP are the only party left now who might question PC to any degree
Cameron said that legislating to let men walk each other up the aisle was the achievement as PM that he was most proud of - one of the most ridiculous statements I have ever heard by an outgoing PM. And very much a sign of our times. Never mind that "food banks", the modern version of soup kitchens, are now everywhere, and almost all supermarkets now run poor boxes, and nobody really knows what Britain's policy towards nearby countries will be in a few year's time, but REJOICE!, "equal" "marriage" is here!
(This comment was self-censored so as not to be un-PC in choice of lexicon; the original mentioned the colour of hats worn by celebrants at a wedding.)
It sounds like you've got the hump over this!
Doesn't sound like the hump, it sounds like pretty basic homophobia to me.
They are a help in providing a base but we are not even talking about local elections as a whole just local government by-elections
Again, it all goes into the same process. Local by-elections are usually won by whoever works hardest. For the last six years, the LibDems had no-one to work hard because their activist base deserted them, which caused them to lose council seats, which further denuded the activist base.
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
For the LDs in particular winning local councils has been a precursor to winning the local MP so you are right on that
They're a vital building block for the Lib Dems. If they can turn in solid local election results till 2020, they could perhaps get back to 15-18 seats, next time.
Has this post been caught in a spam filter since October 2015? It's much too late for that now, and Trump thinks he is winning, not losing.
Why is it too late? There are three months to go. What if he drops to 10% behind and stays there for the whole of September? He doesn't care about the Republican party.
I don't think this is likely in the next month. For a start, he'll get a boost from the Green party's convention.
If he drops out he is still the GOP candidate on the ballot so what is the point and his reputation would be shredded for the rest of his life
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
In positioning himself as extreme, he is applying much of the approach he says he adopts when he makes business deals. And in The Art of the Deal he proposes that the stronger side in any negotiation is the one who is most willing to pull out. During the race for the Republican nomination, he also specifically said that if his polls fell, he'd get out. There's no reason to think the same won't apply in the contest against Clinton. Why waste money?
While similarities exist between Trump and Leave, I don't believe in the existence of hordes of "shy Trumpers". A polling disaster is unlikely. If Trump wins, it will probably be after establishing a consistent lead in the polls. If he doesn't manage that, maybe he'll do what he said he would - withdraw.
There aren't any parallels to go by, but surely the replacement candidate would be likely to be someone who is well known in people's minds from the current presidential election cycle.
Which narrows it down to
Kasich Cruz Rubio Pence and just possibly, Bush
Good thing I backed them all today at ridiculously low prices, really
Hmm. I'm not so sure. I think Trump is in it to the very end.
If you (or anyone else) is interested in backing Cruz, I've just stuck up £325 @ 699/1
I'll be cancelling my unmatched bet in half an hour or so.
The question they should be asking themselves is will Aaron Banks be happy to fund a party with the Carswell candidate or will be pick up his ball and go home. Without his money they are going to be screwed.
The question they should be asking themselves is will Aaron Banks be happy to fund a party with the Carswell candidate or will be pick up his ball and go home. Without his money they are going to be screwed.
Banks could always fund a breakaway party if a Carswell candidate goes nowhere
Has this post been caught in a spam filter since October 2015? It's much too late for that now, and Trump thinks he is winning, not losing.
Why is it too late? There are three months to go. What if he drops to 10% behind and stays there for the whole of September? He doesn't care about the Republican party.
I don't think this is likely in the next month. For a start, he'll get a boost from the Green party's convention.
Once the official nomination papers are in, it will be extremely difficult to withdraw, and even harder for the Republicans to nominate someone else in his place.
In any case, even if he were 10% behind in September, he still has more than enough ego and self-confidence to believe that he could pull it back in October.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
People who disagree with you are still stupid, right?
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
People who disagree with you are still stupid, right?
Owen Jones is now under attacked from the Corbynites, it appears he is an evil Blairite shill for daring to question the power of twitter to change peoples minds. Poor dabs needs a hug I feel, or some expensive French cheese.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
People who disagree with you are still stupid, right?
Owen Jones is now under attacked from the Corbynites, it appears he is an evil Blairite shill for daring to question the power of twitter to change peoples minds. Poor dabs needs a hug I feel, or some expensive French cheese.
Is it not really just because they confused him with Owen Smith?
Mike has accepted some of my thoughts on the US Presidential race.
Last time I published a thread on PB, I said that Indiana would be key in deciding the Republican nomination. However it was far more decisive than I thought, making me either very right or very wrong.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
People who disagree with you are still stupid, right?
More frequently than I would have hoped on PB.
Funny it only seems to work one way.
You are profoundly wrong about a lot of things but I think you are misguided rather than stupid.
HYUFD said "According to comres 54% of Leavers would be happy with some limits on free movement to stay in the single market but 35% of Leavers want to end the rules on free movement even if that means leaving the single market. So even if a majority of Leave voters are happy with controls on low skilled immigration over a third of Leave voters will not be which is a significant pool of voters for UKIP to target"
35% of 52% is 18% . millions more votes with few seats to show for it under FPTP.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
People who disagree with you are still stupid, right?
More frequently than I would have hoped on PB.
Funny it only seems to work one way.
You are profoundly wrong about a lot of things but I think you are misguided rather than stupid.
A not that well known fact about Steven Woolfe is that in 2007 he was kicked off Conway CC for non attendance with a row about him claiming £ 20,000 plus in expenses whilst not attending any meetings . He had been elected in a by election in 2006 as a Conservative .
PB Moderator. This is not a fact. It is an inaccurate allegation.
To be fair to the PB Leavers they never for a moment hid their willingness to ride on the coat tails of the anti-foreigner Leavers using them to achieve their wish of widget specification self-determination.
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
You appear to think there is some sort of leave coalition you can try and drive a wedge into with your strawmen and cheap shots... don't you know we are all leavers now.
There is Brexit and Brexit.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
Please carry on making cheap shots about my enforced stay abroad, I am sure it makes you feel better.
K thx. Will do.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
People who disagree with you are still stupid, right?
More frequently than I would have hoped on PB.
Funny it only seems to work one way.
You are profoundly wrong about a lot of things but I think you are misguided rather than stupid.
Charles I am wrong about very little on PB
That is one of the reasons you can't help but engage with me.
Of course when your contributions are only about me, rather than the issues under debate, you are also very boring.
HYUFD said "According to comres 54% of Leavers would be happy with some limits on free movement to stay in the single market but 35% of Leavers want to end the rules on free movement even if that means leaving the single market. So even if a majority of Leave voters are happy with controls on low skilled immigration over a third of Leave voters will not be which is a significant pool of voters for UKIP to target"
35% of 52% is 18% . millions more votes with few seats to show for it under FPTP.
If UKIP doubled their votes from 13% at the last election, on a swing of 13% to them they would win an extra 51 seats, making 52 UKIP MPs in total. 32 of those seats would come from Labour, 18 from the Tories, 1 from the LDs and 1 from the DUP http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
HYUFD said "According to comres 54% of Leavers would be happy with some limits on free movement to stay in the single market but 35% of Leavers want to end the rules on free movement even if that means leaving the single market. So even if a majority of Leave voters are happy with controls on low skilled immigration over a third of Leave voters will not be which is a significant pool of voters for UKIP to target"
35% of 52% is 18% . millions more votes with few seats to show for it under FPTP.
If UKIP doubled their votes from 13% at the last election, on a swing of 13% to them they would win an extra 51 seats, making 52 UKIP MPs in total. 32 of those seats would come from Labour, 18 from the Tories, 1 from the LDs and 1 from the DUP http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
HYUFD said "According to comres 54% of Leavers would be happy with some limits on free movement to stay in the single market but 35% of Leavers want to end the rules on free movement even if that means leaving the single market. So even if a majority of Leave voters are happy with controls on low skilled immigration over a third of Leave voters will not be which is a significant pool of voters for UKIP to target"
35% of 52% is 18% . millions more votes with few seats to show for it under FPTP.
If UKIP doubled their votes from 13% at the last election, on a swing of 13% to them they would win an extra 51 seats, making 52 UKIP MPs in total. 32 of those seats would come from Labour, 18 from the Tories, 1 from the LDs and 1 from the DUP http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
If pigs were able to fly ................
No, if UKIP won the votes of all voters opposed to free movement
UKIP electoral support has been rapidly reducing over the past year and there are distinct signs we are returning to the old three party system in England.
'UKIP electoral support has been rapidly reducing over the past year and there are distinct signs we are returning to the old three party system in England.'
UKIP succeeded in getting the GE referendum pledge & then Brexit, mission accomplished.
Don't think they were ever interested in saving the local public toilets et al just the big events like winning the Euro elections.
Evening all. Back from holidays and catching up. So it's UKIP temporarily taking the headlines from Labour for being unable to organise the proverbial jovial gathering in an ale house? Do we know if anyone was actually nominated yet?
Comments
That has changed. In numerous places around the country - not just in traditional heartlands - you are seeing the LibDems organise themselves, and win a councillor here, and a councillor there.
Yes, it's a long way back. But it follows from a pretty good set of council elections in May of this year, which showed strong gains from what was the strongest performance for the LDs in the last parliamentary cycle.
Sure: don't read too much into it. But I wouldn't ignore it either; the LibDem activist base seems to be working again for the first time in six years.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/289916-slight-bump-for-clinton-in-battleground-states-following
- End to freedom of movement
- Abolish foreign aid budget, use savings to increase NHS funding
- Tax credits and housing benefits for UK citizens only
- Introduce electoral reform and right of recall for MPs
- End the internal market for the NHS, replace with elected regional boards
- Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland
- Loosen regulation for small companies e.g. end universal pension entitlement
- Reintroduce grammar schools
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-clinton-answers-back-gets-slight-convention-boost-of-her-own/
Whichever way you cut it there will be significant parts of the Leave coalition who are unhappy with the outcome.
By developing a full manifesto and re-badging on the back of the successful referendum outcome, they could turn themselves into a party with genuine Westminster appeal.
(edited to add: good evening, everybody
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BBC-News_Tables_Brexit-Expectations_11072016.pdf
So today it's gone 1.33 > 10 > 2 > 4 > 2.2
Now that they have achieved that (they haven't of course) they will ditch their fellow travellers in a heartbeat, perhaps even sneer at them also.
In positioning himself as extreme, he is applying much of the approach he says he adopts when he makes business deals. And in The Art of the Deal he proposes that the stronger side in any negotiation is the one who is most willing to pull out. During the race for the Republican nomination, he also specifically said that if his polls fell, he'd get out. There's no reason to think the same won't apply in the contest against Clinton. Why waste money?
While similarities exist between Trump and Leave, I don't believe in the existence of hordes of "shy Trumpers". A polling disaster is unlikely. If Trump wins, it will probably be after establishing a consistent lead in the polls. If he doesn't manage that, maybe he'll do what he said he would - withdraw.
There aren't any parallels to go by, but surely the replacement candidate would be likely to be someone who is well known in people's minds from the current presidential election cycle.
Which narrows it down to
Kasich
Cruz
Rubio
Pence
and just possibly, Bush
Good thing I backed them all today at ridiculously low prices, really
I don't think this is likely in the next month. For a start, he'll get a boost from the Green party's convention.
Not that your High St has changed much, I guess.
We shall see which flavour we get.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/31/242744/
Popcorn.
In any case, even if he were 10% behind in September, he still has more than enough ego and self-confidence to believe that he could pull it back in October.
You have also, however, proved you don't understand the issues in play now that we have voted to leave.
Poor dabs needs a hug I feel, or some expensive French cheese.
Last time I published a thread on PB, I said that Indiana would be key in deciding the Republican nomination. However it was far more decisive than I thought, making me either very right or very wrong.
You are profoundly wrong about a lot of things but I think you are misguided rather than stupid.
35% of 52% is 18% . millions more votes with few seats to show for it under FPTP.
I saw a quote from a law lecturer protesting in Bristol where she would not mention the entertain the facts of illegality / law breaking.
PB Moderator. This is not a fact. It is an inaccurate allegation.
That is one of the reasons you can't help but engage with me.
Of course when your contributions are only about me, rather than the issues under debate, you are also very boring.
Teaching them is better than not teaching them.......
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BBC-News_Tables_Brexit-Expectations_11072016.pdf
If UKIP doubled their votes from 13% at the last election, on a swing of 13% to them they would win an extra 51 seats, making 52 UKIP MPs in total. 32 of those seats would come from Labour, 18 from the Tories, 1 from the LDs and 1 from the DUP
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
'UKIP electoral support has been rapidly reducing over the past year and there are distinct signs we are returning to the old three party system in England.'
UKIP succeeded in getting the GE referendum pledge & then Brexit, mission accomplished.
Don't think they were ever interested in saving the local public toilets et al just the big events like winning the Euro elections.