politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now let’s see if Hillary gets a polling bounce that out doe

First...before I jet off to CA?

JohnO said:

First...before I jet off to CA?

Damn and blast!

F1: news. Mentioned on the prior thread, but for those who missed it:
2016 (as of now): radio restrictions lifted, excepting between the formation lap and start [presumably to avoid start procedure coaching].
2017: no halo, return of standing starts in the wet.

Rasmussen yesterday had Clinton with a 1% lead after Trump had a 1% lead last week so it looks Hillary is getting a bounce from the convention but not a large one and the race is now effectively tied

HYUFD said:

Rasmussen yesterday had Clinton with a 1% lead after Trump had a 1% lead last week so it looks Hillary is getting a bounce from the convention but not a large one and the race is now effectively tied

Rasmussen ....

FPT


malcolmg said:
Will the liar stay at the trough


Yep. McGarry the SNP's former in-house purveyor of Scottish Council Houses to English investors is still in the Commons...

JohnO said:

JackW said:

JohnO said:

First...before I jet off to CA?

The Carshalton by-election was last night ....

I'm all the way to San Jose, my dear, via Didcot.

John O on his travels ....

(1) The New York Times is a bit like our Independent (I.e. Spinning for Trump, it would not)
(2) I hate their font

Why do so many American books and newspapers have such crap fonts?

JohnO said:

JackW said:

JohnO said:

First...before I jet off to CA?

The Carshalton by-election was last night ....

I'm all the way to San Jose, my dear, via Didcot.

That's an odd way to get to San Jose.

MattW said:

FPT


malcolmg said:
Will the liar stay at the trough


Yep. McGarry the SNP's former in-house purveyor of Scottish Council Houses to English investors is still in the Commons...

McGarry was involved in property? That's a new one.

If you're going to whine impotently about the EssEnnPee you should at least get the names right, otherwise it just increases the impotence quotient.

Scott_P said:

Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.

Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.

"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/nigel-farages-allies-panic-as-leadership-frontrunner-fights-to-s/

Unresignation No 2 coming up?

Scott_P said:

Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.

Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.

"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/nigel-farages-allies-panic-as-leadership-frontrunner-fights-to-s/

Fear not Kippers, if Woolfe is ineligible, David Coburn has said he will stand.

Scott_P said:

Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.

Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.

"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/nigel-farages-allies-panic-as-leadership-frontrunner-fights-to-s/

The frontrunner to succeed Nigel Farage as leader of the UK Independence party party could be at risk of being disqualified from the election after it emerged he had failed to keep up his membership.

Those hoping to succeed Mr Farage, who resigned earlier this month, need to have been Ukip members for the last two years in order to be eligible to stand in the contest.

I've only been a member since November, 2014 so that rules me out.

Casino_Royale said:

JohnO said:

JackW said:

JohnO said:

First...before I jet off to CA?

The Carshalton by-election was last night ....

I'm all the way to San Jose, my dear, via Didcot.

Via Didcot?

Do you know the way to San Jose?

JohnO. A few friendly words of advice and some best wishes for your travels.

Find some peace in San Jose.

Fame and fortune is a magnet
It can pull you far away from home
With a dream in your heart your never alone.

GeoffM said:

logical_song said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, why's Woolfe ineligible?

Seems bonkers. One chap ineligible, Evans suspended. The only plus side for UKIP is that they don't appear to be voting for a Corbyn.

They're making Labour look sensible, quite a feat.

UKIP haven't not gone that far yet.

Double negative, so you mean they have gone far enough already to make Labour look sensible?

Casino_Royale said:

(1) The New York Times is a bit like our Independent (I.e. Spinning for Trump, it would not)
(2) I hate their font

Why do so many American books and newspapers have such crap fonts?

Bad designers, not much competition? From vague memory of the Evans books, it might have something to do with early data compression for transmission of pages over phone lines.

I enjoyed Hillary's space suit. I only managed a few minutes of her speech, I find a little of her goes a very long way.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, why's Woolfe ineligible?

Seems bonkers. One chap ineligible, Evans suspended. The only plus side for UKIP is that they don't appear to be voting for a Corbyn.

Although he was an MEP, he wasn't a member. Barmy.

Blue_rog said:

tlg86 said:

FPT

DavidL said:

tlg86 said:

DavidL said:

The government is finally getting cold feet about Hinkley Point and has launched a review: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903904

As we seem stuck in a world with no inflation the guaranteed price per unit of electricity looks prohibitively high to me but this is a big call involving major investment at a time when every small straw in the wind is being looked at through the prism of Brexit.

Not if they announce something in its place. Presumably once we're out of the EU we can go back to coal for some of our energy?

They need to be quick. We have still not recovered from Ed Miliband's incompetence when he was in charge of energy and we are dangerously close in terms of spare capacity. Peak pricing and a tight market will not make the UK attractive to manufacturers.

This should certainly be high on the list of May's priorities. One of the problems with Brexit is that we're getting the pain of change without any of the benefits of leaving the bloody thing. The government should start setting the scene for how life will be like outside of the EU with regards to things like the Carbon Tax. If it means the government has to cover the difference for the time being then so be it.

There's also the opportunity for competitive bidding for a number of the smaller pebble bed reactors plus the ability for the UK government to offer subsidies

Much better to spend the money on a Severn Barrage, surely.

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Current grid generation

Gas 55%, Nuclear 30% (6% imported from France), Dinorwic 6%, Wind 3%, Imported from Holland 3%, Coal 2%, Hydro 1%, Biomass 2%, Exported to RoI 1%

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Hinkley Point C would take Nuclear to 40% including French Imports.

It won't, because some of our existing nuclear capacity is end of life and is being retired.

Good morning all.

As successive administrations have raised dithering to an art form, we're now under real pressure. ~ half of our existing nuclear generating capacity will be closed within a decade. The situation has not been helped by our obsession with prioritising CO2 emissions over energy security.

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

stjohn said:

Casino_Royale said:

JohnO said:

JackW said:

JohnO said:

First...before I jet off to CA?

The Carshalton by-election was last night ....

I'm all the way to San Jose, my dear, via Didcot.

Via Didcot?

Do you know the way to San Jose?

JohnO. A few friendly words of advice and some best wishes for your travels.

Find some peace in San Jose.

Fame and fortune is a magnet
It can pull you far away from home
With a dream in your heart your never alone.

In a week, maybe two, they'll make you a star.

stjohn said:

In a week, maybe two, they'll make you a star.

Good morning stjohn. Happy hunting at Goodwood this week?

scotslass said:

Uniondivie

You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!

Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).

"Have you even read the constitution of the United States?"

"You have sacrificed nothing, you have sacrificed no-one"

Powerful.

But Trump's demographic is not particularly interested in what patriotic Moslem Americans have to say. And Trump knows that.

Scott_P said:

stjohn said:

In a week, maybe two, they'll make you a star.

Good morning stjohn. Happy hunting at Goodwood this week?

Hi Scott P. Sadly I don't get round to looking at horse racing regularly at the moment. So betting would be like pin sticking.

Still, there are worse methods .....

stjohn said:

Still, there are worse methods .....

I know. I am using one...

Suzanne Evans’ six months suspension for disloyalty must be up soon. is it too late to stand.

Cyclefree said:

Hilary is a rubbish speaker.

And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?

At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.

It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.

Local Council by elections results summary for July - 32 by elections in total ( none in Scotland )

Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on last time fought
Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2%
LDem 8.981 22.4% up 11.2%
Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3%
UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.6%
Others/Ind 2,180 5.4% down 4.6%
Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2%

MarkSenior said:

Local Council by elections results summary for July - 32 by elections in total ( none in Scotland )

Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on last time fought
Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2%
LDem 8.981 22.4% up 11.2%
Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3%
UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.6%
Others/Ind 2,180 5.4% down 4.6%
Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2%

Lib-Dems Winning Here!

Cyclefree said:

Hilary is a rubbish speaker.

And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?

Hillary's surrounded by sycophants. Everyone told her she looked fabulous when in fact she clearly resembled the Michelin man.

TGOHF said:

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

Northern Poweroutage ?

This is a useful, if slightly horrifying, summary of UK nuclear power.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

scotslass said:

Uniondivie

You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!

Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).

Scotslass is even thicker than MalcolmG. The quality of SNP posters on PB has declined dramatically over the past few years.

I'm happy to state that your quality has been entirely consistent in this time.

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.

But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.

Cyclefree said:

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

Hilary is a rubbish speaker.

And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?

At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.

It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.

She should not be in trousers at all. Or if she must long tunics over them are a necessity. Dresses would be far more elegant for her.

Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.

People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.

Hillary reminds me of Harriet Harman. A hectoring humourless feminist of a certain 60s/70s generation type.

Only difference being that Hillary shouts whereas Harriet talks to you like you're 7 years old.

RobD said:

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

Hilary is a rubbish speaker.

And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?

At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.

It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.

Anything in particular wrong about looking like a President of a Star Federation?

Hillary looked like;
A. The Pillsbury doughboy
B. A snowman
C. An astronaut
D. The Michelin man
E. All of the above.

SimonStClare said:

Can’t believe anyone normal would fall for the vapid crap dished out at a Rep/Dem Convention.

The term is 'vapid bilge', my friend.

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

John_M said:

Cyclefree said:

Hilary is a rubbish speaker.

And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?

At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.

It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.

She should not be in trousers at all. Or if she must long tunics over them are a necessity. Dresses would be far more elegant for her.

Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.

People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.

Ms Cyclefree, we must never meet. If you saw me, you'd likely drop dead instantly, the offence to your fashionable sensibilities would be so great. I used to say I dressed like a tramp, until I received a 'cease and desist' letter from the Tramps' Association.

Sorry about that old chap. I spoke out against it but was outvoted, although I am seeking judicial review of the processes followed, so you might be in luck.

Although we do have standards to maintain of course.

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.

But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.

EDF already struggled to get it through with the obscene strike price, if the government move to lower it then EDF will pull out. Also bear in mind that Nick Timothy is very, very wary of Chinese involvement in the project which could also derail it. I think we are heading for CCGTs plus a longer term bet on tidal and a very long term bet on fusion.

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

Northern Poweroutage ?

This is a useful, if slightly horrifying, summary of UK nuclear power.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx

The problem with nuclear power is that it is not cost effective any more.

If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:

- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity
- Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher.
- Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power

The constant issue with nuclear that we in the UK, and most operators have struggled with, is that load factors have been consistently worse than anticipated. When plants were designed, it was assumed that you would have them operating 95% of the time, with off-line time limited to scheduled maintenance and refueling. Sadly, that has not been the case. Load factors have - in the UK - usually been sub 80%. In other words, one day out of five your nuclear plant isn't on for some reason or another - usually unscheduled maintenance. And as plants have gotten older, the amount of unscheduled maintenance has gotten greater and greater.

Maintenance of nuclear plants is expensive. The fuel may be cheap, but replacing metal that has become brittle through constant bombardment is not. Leaks in cooling systems are a constant issue. And people are - rightly - paranoid about skimping on maintenance.

Make no mistake: the reason old reactors are shutting down is that, even though fuel is cheap, and the plants have already been built, the cost of maintenance is such that they cannot generate electricity at sufficient load factors and at low enough cost to be profitable.

Coal's problems are that it is polluting (and I'm not talking about CO2), has relatively high maintenance costs (lots of conveyor belts and that ash gets everywhere), is relatively inefficient (you convert - what - 30% of the calories in a lump of coal into electricity), and is inflexible. You aren't meant to turn these coal plants on and off. If you do, you cause metal fatigue and leaks as things expand and shrink.

And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.

JackW said:

A good poll each overnight :

New Hampshire - Clinton 39 .. Trump 48 - Inside Source
Pennsylvania - Clinton 50 .. Trump 41 - Suffolk

those polls look dodgey, are we heading for yet another industry polling disaster?

rcs1000 said:

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

Northern Poweroutage ?

This is a useful, if slightly horrifying, summary of UK nuclear power.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx

The problem with nuclear power is that it is not cost effective any more.

If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:

- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity
- Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher.
- Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power

The constant issue with nuclear that we in the UK, and most operators have struggled with, is that load factors have been consistently worse than anticipated. When plants were designed, it was assumed that you would have them operating 95% of the time, with off-line time limited to scheduled maintenance and refueling. Sadly, that has not been the case. Load factors have - in the UK - usually been sub 80%. In other words, one day out of five your nuclear plant isn't on for some reason or another - usually unscheduled maintenance. And as plants have gotten older, the amount of unscheduled maintenance has gotten greater and greater.

Maintenance of nuclear plants is expensive. The fuel may be cheap, but replacing metal that has become brittle through constant bombardment is not. Leaks in cooling systems are a constant issue. And people are - rightly - paranoid about skimping on maintenance.

Make no mistake: the reason old reactors are shutting down is that, even though fuel is cheap, and the plants have already been built, the cost of maintenance is such that they cannot generate electricity at sufficient load factors and at low enough cost to be profitable.

Coal's problems are that it is polluting (and I'm not talking about CO2), has relatively high maintenance costs (lots of conveyor belts and that ash gets everywhere), is relatively inefficient (you convert - what - 30% of the calories in a lump of coal into electricity), and is inflexible. You aren't meant to turn these coal plants on and off. If you do, you cause metal fatigue and leaks as things expand and shrink.

And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.

Plus if prices rise we have a huge source of tight gas in the UK.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.

But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.

EDF already struggled to get it through with the obscene strike price, if the government move to lower it then EDF will pull out. Also bear in mind that Nick Timothy is very, very wary of Chinese involvement in the project which could also derail it. I think we are heading for CCGTs plus a longer term bet on tidal and a very long term bet on fusion.

We are already hugely overdependent upon CCGT and the world gas price, which is volatile and erratic and subject to political tinkering from the likes of Putin.

It's worth paying a slight premium for nuclear for stable energy security. But not that much.

The deal was just done craply.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, why's Woolfe ineligible?

Seems bonkers. One chap ineligible, Evans suspended. The only plus side for UKIP is that they don't appear to be voting for a Corbyn.

Although he was an MEP, he wasn't a member. Barmy.

Ooh, I doo hpe so. I laid him on Betfair at good odds.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.

There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.

But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.

EDF already struggled to get it through with the obscene strike price, if the government move to lower it then EDF will pull out. Also bear in mind that Nick Timothy is very, very wary of Chinese involvement in the project which could also derail it. I think we are heading for CCGTs plus a longer term bet on tidal and a very long term bet on fusion.

Mr. Max, what about small nuclear reactors? I read somewhere that South Korea is building 4 of them for about £8bn. There seems to be some scope for replacing the grand project with lots of small ones. In addition there is still the possibility of molten salt reactors and other "new" technologies. I'd be hesitant to write-off nuclear just yet.

In the interim I hope TM does the decent thing and dumps the absurdly expensive Hinkley C project. With a little bit of thought CCGT could be made economical and sufficient be built in time.