politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now let’s see if Hillary gets a polling bounce that out does Trump’s last week
I didn’t stay up overnight to watch Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech at the end of the Democratic convention but it seems to have been well received.
F1: news. Mentioned on the prior thread, but for those who missed it: 2016 (as of now): radio restrictions lifted, excepting between the formation lap and start [presumably to avoid start procedure coaching]. 2017: no halo, return of standing starts in the wet.
Rasmussen yesterday had Clinton with a 1% lead after Trump had a 1% lead last week so it looks Hillary is getting a bounce from the convention but not a large one and the race is now effectively tied
As we seem stuck in a world with no inflation the guaranteed price per unit of electricity looks prohibitively high to me but this is a big call involving major investment at a time when every small straw in the wind is being looked at through the prism of Brexit.
Not if they announce something in its place. Presumably once we're out of the EU we can go back to coal for some of our energy?
They need to be quick. We have still not recovered from Ed Miliband's incompetence when he was in charge of energy and we are dangerously close in terms of spare capacity. Peak pricing and a tight market will not make the UK attractive to manufacturers.
This should certainly be high on the list of May's priorities. One of the problems with Brexit is that we're getting the pain of change without any of the benefits of leaving the bloody thing. The government should start setting the scene for how life will be like outside of the EU with regards to things like the Carbon Tax. If it means the government has to cover the difference for the time being then so be it.
Rasmussen yesterday had Clinton with a 1% lead after Trump had a 1% lead last week so it looks Hillary is getting a bounce from the convention but not a large one and the race is now effectively tied
As we seem stuck in a world with no inflation the guaranteed price per unit of electricity looks prohibitively high to me but this is a big call involving major investment at a time when every small straw in the wind is being looked at through the prism of Brexit.
Not if they announce something in its place. Presumably once we're out of the EU we can go back to coal for some of our energy?
They need to be quick. We have still not recovered from Ed Miliband's incompetence when he was in charge of energy and we are dangerously close in terms of spare capacity. Peak pricing and a tight market will not make the UK attractive to manufacturers.
This should certainly be high on the list of May's priorities. One of the problems with Brexit is that we're getting the pain of change without any of the benefits of leaving the bloody thing. The government should start setting the scene for how life will be like outside of the EU with regards to things like the Carbon Tax. If it means the government has to cover the difference for the time being then so be it.
There's also the opportunity for competitive bidding for a number of the smaller pebble bed reactors plus the ability for the UK government to offer subsidies
Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.
Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.
"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."
Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.
Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.
"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."
Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.
Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.
"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."
Nigel Farage and his allies are scrambling to find someone to stand to succeed him as leader of the UK Independence Party amid increasing concern that current frontrunner Steven Woolfe may be ineligible to stand, a senior official has admitted.
Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.
"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."
The frontrunner to succeed Nigel Farage as leader of the UK Independence party party could be at risk of being disqualified from the election after it emerged he had failed to keep up his membership.
Those hoping to succeed Mr Farage, who resigned earlier this month, need to have been Ukip members for the last two years in order to be eligible to stand in the contest.
I've only been a member since November, 2014 so that rules me out.
(1) The New York Times is a bit like our Independent (I.e. Spinning for Trump, it would not) (2) I hate their font
Why do so many American books and newspapers have such crap fonts?
Bad designers, not much competition? From vague memory of the Evans books, it might have something to do with early data compression for transmission of pages over phone lines.
As we seem stuck in a world with no inflation the guaranteed price per unit of electricity looks prohibitively high to me but this is a big call involving major investment at a time when every small straw in the wind is being looked at through the prism of Brexit.
Not if they announce something in its place. Presumably once we're out of the EU we can go back to coal for some of our energy?
They need to be quick. We have still not recovered from Ed Miliband's incompetence when he was in charge of energy and we are dangerously close in terms of spare capacity. Peak pricing and a tight market will not make the UK attractive to manufacturers.
This should certainly be high on the list of May's priorities. One of the problems with Brexit is that we're getting the pain of change without any of the benefits of leaving the bloody thing. The government should start setting the scene for how life will be like outside of the EU with regards to things like the Carbon Tax. If it means the government has to cover the difference for the time being then so be it.
There's also the opportunity for competitive bidding for a number of the smaller pebble bed reactors plus the ability for the UK government to offer subsidies
Much better to spend the money on a Severn Barrage, surely.
(1) The New York Times is a bit like our Independent (I.e. Spinning for Trump, it would not) (2) I hate their font
Why do so many American books and newspapers have such crap fonts?
Try reading an American tax form. Even worse.
It makes you wonder why Trump won't release his tax returns. Nobody would be able to read them anyway.
Ha.
American books in my experience also cram far too many words onto a page (often poor quality paper too) that are poorly spaced, as well as the irritating font.
Hinkley Point C would take Nuclear to 40% including French Imports.
It won't, because some of our existing nuclear capacity is end of life and is being retired.
Good morning all.
As successive administrations have raised dithering to an art form, we're now under real pressure. ~ half of our existing nuclear generating capacity will be closed within a decade. The situation has not been helped by our obsession with prioritising CO2 emissions over energy security.
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).
I see you chose your words more carefully than Jack W. On this site if we must have tedious smearing of other parties then it should be a minimum requirement to get the name correct of the person you are attempting to defame.
I see you chose your words more carefully than Jack W. On this site if we must have tedious smearing of other parties then it should be a minimum requirement to get the name correct of the person you are attempting to defame.
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).
You are quite correct. Your nom has the advantage of not being mistaken for any other. Jack W my sincere apologies for confusing you with Matt W. That was an unintentional slight of the highest order.
I see you chose your words more carefully than Jack W. On this site if we must have tedious smearing of other parties then it should be a minimum requirement to get the name correct of the person you are attempting to defame.
Given SNP standing orders, it really doesn't matter - they're all so many indistinguishable interchangeable pieces.
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).
Scotslass is even thicker than MalcolmG. The quality of SNP posters on PB has declined dramatically over the past few years.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
You are quite correct. Your nom has the advantage of not being mistaken for any other. Jack W my sincere apologies for confusing you with Matt W. That was an unintentional slight of the highest order.
You are quite correct. Your nom has the advantage of not being mistaken for any other. Jack W my sincere apologies for confusing you with Matt W. That was an unintentional slight of the highest order.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
More than 4,000 posts and still not an onze of grace. You could always leave Political Betting and join the Trump campaign raising the average intelligence of both.
Local Council by elections results summary for July - 32 by elections in total ( none in Scotland )
Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on last time fought Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8.981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.6% Others/Ind 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2%
Local Council by elections results summary for July - 32 by elections in total ( none in Scotland )
Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on last time fought Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8.981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.6% Others/Ind 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2%
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
Hillary's surrounded by sycophants. Everyone told her she looked fabulous when in fact she clearly resembled the Michelin man.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
She should not be in trousers at all. Or if she must long tunics over them are a necessity. Dresses would be far more elegant for her.
Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.
People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).
Scotslass is even thicker than MalcolmG. The quality of SNP posters on PB has declined dramatically over the past few years.
I'm happy to state that your quality has been entirely consistent in this time.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
Anything in particular wrong about looking like a President of a Star Federation?
Hillary may be an indifferent speaker but she has survived a long time in the bear pit of American politics and she will probably survive more insults from Moniker or Trump.
More importantly the Democratic Convention had the feel of a coalition getting serious about taking on and defeating Trumpalism. It was seriously impressive and I have adjusted my positions for a big win on a big Hillary win ie above 50 on the electoral college.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
She should not be in trousers at all. Or if she must long tunics over them are a necessity. Dresses would be far more elegant for her.
Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.
People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.
Hillary reminds me of Harriet Harman. A hectoring humourless feminist of a certain 60s/70s generation type.
Only difference being that Hillary shouts whereas Harriet talks to you like you're 7 years old.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
She should not be in trousers at all. Or if she must long tunics over them are a necessity. Dresses would be far more elegant for her.
Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.
People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.
Ms Cyclefree, we must never meet. If you saw me, you'd likely drop dead instantly, the offence to your fashionable sensibilities would be so great. I used to say I dressed like a tramp, until I received a 'cease and desist' letter from the Tramps' Association.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
Anything in particular wrong about looking like a President of a Star Federation?
Hillary looked like; A. The Pillsbury doughboy B. A snowman C. An astronaut D. The Michelin man E. All of the above.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
She should not be in trousers at all. Or if she must long tunics over them are a necessity. Dresses would be far more elegant for her.
Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.
People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.
Ms Cyclefree, we must never meet. If you saw me, you'd likely drop dead instantly, the offence to your fashionable sensibilities would be so great. I used to say I dressed like a tramp, until I received a 'cease and desist' letter from the Tramps' Association.
Sorry about that old chap. I spoke out against it but was outvoted, although I am seeking judicial review of the processes followed, so you might be in luck.
Although we do have standards to maintain of course.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
Anything in particular wrong about looking like a President of a Star Federation?
Joking aside, I'm not sure it comes across on Main Street. As PJ put it 'Carter in a pants suit'. She should take a leaf out of Mrs May's book (apart from the Amanda Wakeley coats, which are horrible).
Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.
There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
EDF already struggled to get it through with the obscene strike price, if the government move to lower it then EDF will pull out. Also bear in mind that Nick Timothy is very, very wary of Chinese involvement in the project which could also derail it. I think we are heading for CCGTs plus a longer term bet on tidal and a very long term bet on fusion.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
At least it was better than some of her 'President-of-a-Future-Star-Federation' outfits.
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
I watched a bit of the DNC conv last night - and the oddest thing was the shouts of HILLARY!! at random moments - I discovered on Twitter that this was to drown out less flattering coordinated chants from Bernie fans.
I gather Obama mentioned how great he was 118x during his speech to endorse her...
The problem with nuclear power is that it is not cost effective any more.
If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:
- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity - Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher. - Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power
The constant issue with nuclear that we in the UK, and most operators have struggled with, is that load factors have been consistently worse than anticipated. When plants were designed, it was assumed that you would have them operating 95% of the time, with off-line time limited to scheduled maintenance and refueling. Sadly, that has not been the case. Load factors have - in the UK - usually been sub 80%. In other words, one day out of five your nuclear plant isn't on for some reason or another - usually unscheduled maintenance. And as plants have gotten older, the amount of unscheduled maintenance has gotten greater and greater.
Maintenance of nuclear plants is expensive. The fuel may be cheap, but replacing metal that has become brittle through constant bombardment is not. Leaks in cooling systems are a constant issue. And people are - rightly - paranoid about skimping on maintenance.
Make no mistake: the reason old reactors are shutting down is that, even though fuel is cheap, and the plants have already been built, the cost of maintenance is such that they cannot generate electricity at sufficient load factors and at low enough cost to be profitable.
Coal's problems are that it is polluting (and I'm not talking about CO2), has relatively high maintenance costs (lots of conveyor belts and that ash gets everywhere), is relatively inefficient (you convert - what - 30% of the calories in a lump of coal into electricity), and is inflexible. You aren't meant to turn these coal plants on and off. If you do, you cause metal fatigue and leaks as things expand and shrink.
And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.
Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.
There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
But so are the economics of nuclear. As engineers note, there are so many unforeseen possibilities for it all going wrong that it's rather like IT software; no one matter what care one takes, there will be bugs, and some consequences might be grave.
Every 'event', like Fukushima, causes the economics to get worse. Fukushima was believed to be 'impossible' until Mar. 2011. (Fraud didn't help.)
A serious accident in Europe would probably bankrupt EDF. It's already on the edge, with two non-working EPRs in France and Finland. Rather than the ridiculous price, May could be worried that EDF might run out of money halfway through construction or encounter new problems, different from those in France and Finland.
Crazy waste of money. There've been better options for years, fortunately many European countries are pursuing them.
The problem with nuclear power is that it is not cost effective any more.
If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:
- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity - Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher. - Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power
The constant issue with nuclear that we in the UK, and most operators have struggled with, is that load factors have been consistently worse than anticipated. When plants were designed, it was assumed that you would have them operating 95% of the time, with off-line time limited to scheduled maintenance and refueling. Sadly, that has not been the case. Load factors have - in the UK - usually been sub 80%. In other words, one day out of five your nuclear plant isn't on for some reason or another - usually unscheduled maintenance. And as plants have gotten older, the amount of unscheduled maintenance has gotten greater and greater.
Maintenance of nuclear plants is expensive. The fuel may be cheap, but replacing metal that has become brittle through constant bombardment is not. Leaks in cooling systems are a constant issue. And people are - rightly - paranoid about skimping on maintenance.
Make no mistake: the reason old reactors are shutting down is that, even though fuel is cheap, and the plants have already been built, the cost of maintenance is such that they cannot generate electricity at sufficient load factors and at low enough cost to be profitable.
Coal's problems are that it is polluting (and I'm not talking about CO2), has relatively high maintenance costs (lots of conveyor belts and that ash gets everywhere), is relatively inefficient (you convert - what - 30% of the calories in a lump of coal into electricity), and is inflexible. You aren't meant to turn these coal plants on and off. If you do, you cause metal fatigue and leaks as things expand and shrink.
And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.
The problem with nuclear power is that it is not cost effective any more.
If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:
- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity - Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher. - Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power
The constant issue with nuclear that we in the UK, and most operators have struggled with, is that load factors have been consistently worse than anticipated. When plants were designed, it was assumed that you would have them operating 95% of the time, with off-line time limited to scheduled maintenance and refueling. Sadly, that has not been the case. Load factors have - in the UK - usually been sub 80%. In other words, one day out of five your nuclear plant isn't on for some reason or another - usually unscheduled maintenance. And as plants have gotten older, the amount of unscheduled maintenance has gotten greater and greater.
Maintenance of nuclear plants is expensive. The fuel may be cheap, but replacing metal that has become brittle through constant bombardment is not. Leaks in cooling systems are a constant issue. And people are - rightly - paranoid about skimping on maintenance.
Make no mistake: the reason old reactors are shutting down is that, even though fuel is cheap, and the plants have already been built, the cost of maintenance is such that they cannot generate electricity at sufficient load factors and at low enough cost to be profitable.
Coal's problems are that it is polluting (and I'm not talking about CO2), has relatively high maintenance costs (lots of conveyor belts and that ash gets everywhere), is relatively inefficient (you convert - what - 30% of the calories in a lump of coal into electricity), and is inflexible. You aren't meant to turn these coal plants on and off. If you do, you cause metal fatigue and leaks as things expand and shrink.
And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.
Plus if prices rise we have a huge source of tight gas in the UK.
Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.
There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
But so are the economics of nuclear. As engineers note, there are so many unforeseen possibilities for it all going wrong that it's rather like IT software; no one matter what care one takes, there will be bugs, and some consequences might be grave.
Every 'event', like Fukushima, causes the economics to get worse. Fukushima was believed to be 'impossible' until Mar. 2011. (Fraud didn't help.)
A serious accident in Europe would probably bankrupt EDF. It's already on the edge, with two non-working EPRs in France and Finland. Rather than the ridiculous price, May could be worried that EDF might run out of money halfway through construction or encounter new problems, different from those in France and Finland.
Crazy waste of money. There've been better options for years, fortunately many European countries are pursuing them.
No. I am an engineer. We've had nuclear for decades perfectly safely in the UK, and France is uber-nuclear.
It's fine. The Japanese massively screwed up their safety regime at Fukushima.
The problem with nuclear power is that it is not cost effective any more.
If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:
- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity - Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher. - Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power
And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.
Plus if prices rise we have a huge source of tight gas in the UK.
Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.
There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
EDF already struggled to get it through with the obscene strike price, if the government move to lower it then EDF will pull out. Also bear in mind that Nick Timothy is very, very wary of Chinese involvement in the project which could also derail it. I think we are heading for CCGTs plus a longer term bet on tidal and a very long term bet on fusion.
We are already hugely overdependent upon CCGT and the world gas price, which is volatile and erratic and subject to political tinkering from the likes of Putin.
It's worth paying a slight premium for nuclear for stable energy security. But not that much.
Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.
There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
But so are the economics of nuclear. As engineers note, there are so many unforeseen possibilities for it all going wrong that it's rather like IT software; no one matter what care one takes, there will be bugs, and some consequences might be grave.
Every 'event', like Fukushima, causes the economics to get worse. Fukushima was believed to be 'impossible' until Mar. 2011. (Fraud didn't help.)
A serious accident in Europe would probably bankrupt EDF. It's already on the edge, with two non-working EPRs in France and Finland. Rather than the ridiculous price, May could be worried that EDF might run out of money halfway through construction or encounter new problems, different from those in France and Finland.
Crazy waste of money. There've been better options for years, fortunately many European countries are pursuing them.
No. I am an engineer. We've had nuclear for decades perfectly safely in the UK, and France is uber-nuclear.
It's fine. The Japanese massively screwed up their safety regime at Fukushima.
Does EDF have a working EPR yet? That would be my biggest concern....
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
Tbf it was MattW (who hasn't a clue) I was responding to, rather than JackW (who does).
Scotslass is even thicker than MalcolmG. The quality of SNP posters on PB has declined dramatically over the past few years.
I'm happy to state that your quality has been entirely consistent in this time.
Hinkley Point C looks to be done. Now that Osborne is out so is Hinkley.
There has already been hundreds of millions spent on Hinkley and we need to replace existing capacity, so I doubt it.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
EDF already struggled to get it through with the obscene strike price, if the government move to lower it then EDF will pull out. Also bear in mind that Nick Timothy is very, very wary of Chinese involvement in the project which could also derail it. I think we are heading for CCGTs plus a longer term bet on tidal and a very long term bet on fusion.
Mr. Max, what about small nuclear reactors? I read somewhere that South Korea is building 4 of them for about £8bn. There seems to be some scope for replacing the grand project with lots of small ones. In addition there is still the possibility of molten salt reactors and other "new" technologies. I'd be hesitant to write-off nuclear just yet.
In the interim I hope TM does the decent thing and dumps the absurdly expensive Hinkley C project. With a little bit of thought CCGT could be made economical and sufficient be built in time.
Comments
2016 (as of now): radio restrictions lifted, excepting between the formation lap and start [presumably to avoid start procedure coaching].
2017: no halo, return of standing starts in the wet.
New Hampshire - Clinton 39 .. Trump 48 - Inside Source
Pennsylvania - Clinton 50 .. Trump 41 - Suffolk
malcolmg said:
Will the liar stay at the trough
Yep. McGarry the SNP's former in-house purveyor of Scottish Council Houses to English investors is still in the Commons...
(2) I hate their font
Why do so many American books and newspapers have such crap fonts?
Do you know the way to San Jose?
Peter Jewell, the party's deputy treasurer, wrote to friends on Wednesday night asking for them to nominate him so he can stand and "hold the fort for a while" in Mr Farage's absence, in an e-mail seen by the Telegraph.
"Without going into a long story and I am short on time," Mr Jewell wrote, "Steven woolfe it seems cannot stand for leader and we are in a panic Nigel and others have asked me to stand and hold the fort for a while." He told recipients that he needed 50 people to sign a nomination form for him on Thursday, asking them to "sign [this form] please and scan it back VERY urgently."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/nigel-farages-allies-panic-as-leadership-frontrunner-fights-to-s/
If you're going to whine impotently about the EssEnnPee you should at least get the names right, otherwise it just increases the impotence quotient.
Seems bonkers. One chap ineligible, Evans suspended. The only plus side for UKIP is that they don't appear to be voting for a Corbyn.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/end-of-the-world-doomsday-believers-predict-the-apocalypse/
Those hoping to succeed Mr Farage, who resigned earlier this month, need to have been Ukip members for the last two years in order to be eligible to stand in the contest.
I've only been a member since November, 2014 so that rules me out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/ukip-leadership-frontrunner-steven-woolfes-bid-could-be-derailed/ *
* Other news sources are available
Find some peace in San Jose.
Fame and fortune is a magnet
It can pull you far away from home
With a dream in your heart your never alone.
Gas 55%, Nuclear 30% (6% imported from France), Dinorwic 6%, Wind 3%, Imported from Holland 3%, Coal 2%, Hydro 1%, Biomass 2%, Exported to RoI 1%
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
Hinkley Point C would take Nuclear to 40% including French Imports.
It makes you wonder why Trump won't release his tax returns. Nobody would be able to read them anyway.
American books in my experience also cram far too many words onto a page (often poor quality paper too) that are poorly spaced, as well as the irritating font.
Makes them bloody hard work to read.
As successive administrations have raised dithering to an art form, we're now under real pressure. ~ half of our existing nuclear generating capacity will be closed within a decade. The situation has not been helped by our obsession with prioritising CO2 emissions over energy security.
You are far to gentle with clowns like Jack W. He does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about and only the vaguest notion of who he is smearing except that they must be SNP bad!
I see you chose your words more carefully than Jack W. On this site if we must have tedious smearing of other parties then it should be a minimum requirement to get the name correct of the person you are attempting to defame.
"You have sacrificed nothing, you have sacrificed no-one"
Powerful.
But Trump's demographic is not particularly interested in what patriotic Moslem Americans have to say. And Trump knows that.
Still, there are worse methods .....
You are quite correct. Your nom has the advantage of not being mistaken for any other. Jack W my sincere apologies for confusing you with Matt W. That was an unintentional slight of the highest order.
And, really, who in God's name advised her that a white trouser suit which makes her arse and thighs look even bigger than they are was a good idea? Can't the poor woman afford a mirror?
It's been a strange year. Clinton is terrible, Owen Smith is terrible yet people are desperate for both to win as the alternative is even worse.
More than 4,000 posts and still not an onze of grace. You could always leave Political Betting and join the Trump campaign raising the average intelligence of both.
Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on last time fought
Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2%
LDem 8.981 22.4% up 11.2%
Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3%
UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.6%
Others/Ind 2,180 5.4% down 4.6%
Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2%
They are 70/3 needing another 198 to beat Lanka with over a day left.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3714232/ISIS-church-attacker-worked-French-airport-baggage-handler-just-months-priest-murder-got-police-checks-easily-secure-job.html
http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx
Really, lots of people who should know better seem to get dressed in the dark, as if they'd blundered into their wardrobes with their bodies covered in glue and left the house with whatever got attached to them. A mirror would help, a rear view mirror in many cases.
People should make a bit of an effort not to be a complete eyesore when out in public. It's only polite.
But May might be looking to restrike the deal. The strike price for Hinkley is crazy.
Hillary may be an indifferent speaker but she has survived a long time in the bear pit of American politics and she will probably survive more insults from Moniker or Trump.
More importantly the Democratic Convention had the feel of a coalition getting serious about taking on and defeating Trumpalism. It was seriously impressive and I have adjusted my positions for a big win on a big Hillary win ie above 50 on the electoral college.
Only difference being that Hillary shouts whereas Harriet talks to you like you're 7 years old.
A. The Pillsbury doughboy
B. A snowman
C. An astronaut
D. The Michelin man
E. All of the above.
Barely got past tea I think
Although we do have standards to maintain of course.
I gather Obama mentioned how great he was 118x during his speech to endorse her...
If you go back 30 years ago, the power grid would consist of three different types of generation:
- Nuclear, which would be always on, and which would provide low marginal cost (inflexible) electricity
- Coal, where plants cost less to build and maintain, but where the marginal cost was higher.
- Natural gas, where plants were cheap to build, but the fuel source was expensive and so it was just used to provide peaking power
The constant issue with nuclear that we in the UK, and most operators have struggled with, is that load factors have been consistently worse than anticipated. When plants were designed, it was assumed that you would have them operating 95% of the time, with off-line time limited to scheduled maintenance and refueling. Sadly, that has not been the case. Load factors have - in the UK - usually been sub 80%. In other words, one day out of five your nuclear plant isn't on for some reason or another - usually unscheduled maintenance. And as plants have gotten older, the amount of unscheduled maintenance has gotten greater and greater.
Maintenance of nuclear plants is expensive. The fuel may be cheap, but replacing metal that has become brittle through constant bombardment is not. Leaks in cooling systems are a constant issue. And people are - rightly - paranoid about skimping on maintenance.
Make no mistake: the reason old reactors are shutting down is that, even though fuel is cheap, and the plants have already been built, the cost of maintenance is such that they cannot generate electricity at sufficient load factors and at low enough cost to be profitable.
Coal's problems are that it is polluting (and I'm not talking about CO2), has relatively high maintenance costs (lots of conveyor belts and that ash gets everywhere), is relatively inefficient (you convert - what - 30% of the calories in a lump of coal into electricity), and is inflexible. You aren't meant to turn these coal plants on and off. If you do, you cause metal fatigue and leaks as things expand and shrink.
And now natural gas is here and it is the best power source available. Efficient, cheap, available from friendly countries, and flexible. Best of all, it fits well with intermittent power sources such as wind or solar.
Every 'event', like Fukushima, causes the economics to get worse. Fukushima was believed to be 'impossible' until Mar. 2011. (Fraud didn't help.)
A serious accident in Europe would probably bankrupt EDF. It's already on the edge, with two non-working EPRs in France and Finland. Rather than the ridiculous price, May could be worried that EDF might run out of money halfway through construction or encounter new problems, different from those in France and Finland.
Crazy waste of money. There've been better options for years, fortunately many European countries are pursuing them.
It's fine. The Japanese massively screwed up their safety regime at Fukushima.
http://news.sky.com/story/gps-equipped-seagulls-are-flytipping-eyes-in-sky-10516178
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/367287/Shalegas_uk.pdf
It's worth paying a slight premium for nuclear for stable energy security. But not that much.
The deal was just done craply.
In the interim I hope TM does the decent thing and dumps the absurdly expensive Hinkley C project. With a little bit of thought CCGT could be made economical and sufficient be built in time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/glad-to-meet-you?utm_term=.hawbVqzYv#.sxznk4OLD