politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for Pres
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time
Congratulations to Betfair and the other bookies who have been quick to settle long-standing US WH2016 bets as events have unfolded at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. It’s now official – Clinton versus Trump.
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May is enjoying an expectations honeymoon, with Con (+40), Lab (+20) and Lib Dem (+29) voters all thinking she'll be a better PM than Cameron. Only SNP voters are evenly split (±0). Middle class English ladies more acceptable than posh boys? The striking thing in all the May polling numbers is the low level of 'don't knows' - she's clearly a known quantity....
It is curious that SNP voters have the highest positive rating for Corbyn (net -23) - perhaps they don't have the best interests of Labour at heart - or perhaps its the old 'Red Labour' vote that have shifted to the SNP....?
http://m.townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/07/27/analysis-folksy-impeached-president-endorses-scandalplagued-disliked-wife-n2198515
addendum: indeed,who would you have preferred in general?
Woohoo.
Still, kudos to Betfair for settling et al.
yeh – another Clinton.
All the same, it's better than 'approve / disapprove' and the general picture is pretty clear.
On Scottish matters, it also stands out that with Labour voters, Dugdale's score is +12, Sturgeon's score is +10 and Davidson's score is +58 - and that's after the mass defections from Lab to SNP over the last two years. How is Labour to recover with Scottish and UK leaders performing so badly.
The longest serving President is Franklin Delano Roosevelt at 4,422 days.Roosevelt died on the 83rd day of his fourth term on April 12, 1945.
Yes, of course it's not just Hillary who traded on former connections - would George W Bush have become president had his dad not been there before him (and would *he* have become president had his father not been a senator)? - but all the same, marrying your way to the White House doesn't strike me as a great advance for feminism.
In terms of presidents and their immediate families, yes, it would. She would need a second term though and I doubt she'll get one; she may well not even get a first.
BREAKING: Japan announces economic stimulus package worth more than $265 billion
She may be tolerably passable, she may be awful. In fact, there's more chance that she'll go down as part of the first husband and wife pairing to both be impeached as president than that she'll be 'an excellent president'.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/jul/27/the-left-is-not-dead-heres-how-we-come-back-fighting-video
She got married in 1975 to Bill Clinton. At the time he had failed to win election to the House of Representatives the year before. She left DC to go live in Arkansas!
What do you think Hillary is an "expert" in? She is certainly more of a technocrat than Trump. I think that ultimately could be an advantage if she can persuade people that makes her the safer choice.
#UPDATE: Deutsche Bank second quarter net profit tumbles by 98% https://t.co/4qmWYGEg4j
Would she have got there by herself? Who knows? But the fact remains that of all the naturally born women over the age of 35, it's a hell of a coincidence that the first to be nominated is related to a former president.
(As said earlier, this isn't unusual for American politics, other than the relationship being by marriage rather than descent).
"We could be a few months or years away from the most progressive government since Clement Attlee’s post-WWII government delivered the NHS, a national education system, nationalised transport and energy, and rolled out the biggest social housing programme in our history. This is an electoral choice that the UK hasn’t had the opportunity to make in decades."
(http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/14/working-class-britain-is-taking-its-power-back-and-the-establishment-is-freaking-out/)
Tim Kaine too looks good to me.
Have the Democrats cornered the honesty/sanity market?
As Bertrand Russell wrote in 1933 on the rise of the Nazis: "The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt."
But she isn't Trump. This election reminds me of Sarkozy vs Leave Pen in France. One choice is nuts, the other merely appalling
Shortly to be replicated elsewhere in an international round of serial devaluations. Each devaluation providing a short term fix to cover up serious untackled economic problems.
"But the micro-blogging site managed to shrink its quarterly loss to $107m(£84.7m) from $136m last year. "
One doctor made an extra £375,000 last year on top of their salary.
Hospitals blamed a consultants shortage amid rising demand, but ministers said the way doctors were paid must change.
Payments of about £600 in overtime for a four-hour shift are common - three to four times what consultants get normally - but there was some evidence of payments around the £1,000 mark.
1.£374,999: Unnamed consultant at Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
2.£205,408: Unnamed consultant at East Kent Hospitals University NHS Foundation Trust
3.£183,204: Unnamed consultant at Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36898881
Right on queue, the Japanese government goes for stimulus with printed money. They may not be the first.
However, the more I see her on TV nowadays, the more I dislike her. I think she's dishonest, a crook and a transparent fake. My sympathies are with the Bernie supporters who seem to find her even less appealing than I do.
http://www.thstailwinds.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/gdp-per-capita-constant-prices-change-2015-v-2007.jpg
The other was median Japanese income which showed a major fall over a similar period: http://www.thstailwinds.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/japan-workers-real-disposable-income-2003-2016.jpg
I fear Japan are just a decade further down the curve than we are and that we may be in all too similar a position in 10 years time.
Britain Elects @britainelects 9h9 hours ago
The Hangers & Forest (East Hampshire) result:
CON: 45.3% (-23.7)
LDEM: 43.6% (+43.6)
JUST: 7.9% (+7.9)
LAB: 3.3% (-9.7)
Just sums it up perfectly for me. Sane America is not being given a choice here.
'We won’t talk about trade until after Brexit, says US'
Liam Fox says this
Speaking in Washington, Dr Fox appeared to tone down his earlier optimistic rhetoric on trade, saying that “we cannot negotiate any new trade deals as long as we are part of the EU, which we will be for probably the next two years, with an exit in early 2019. We want to have discussions and to scope out any possible deals that we might want to do immediately after that.”
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-spurns-offer-of-trade-talks-wsk6gc5wx
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/27/why-dont-people-vote-google
"This so-called “paradox of voting” has intrigued political scientists – especially those who like to see themselves as belonging to the “rational choice” school – for ages. The answer most commonly arrived at is that those who do turn out must derive some utility, however indirect, from the act of voting..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/missing-presumed-lost-andy-burnhams-spine/
Owen Smith is a lightweight and no opposition leader
He resembles an actor who has been turned down for a Halifax ad
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/owen-smith-is-a-lightweight-and-no-opposition-leader-hhd2dmmf3
Now sure what he does these days, probably been on Celebrity Arse Swap or something
Minor nit David - the second graph shows median disposable income. It's not quite the same thing.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/america-to-end-ban-on-british-meat-h9nqwm39j
Times/YouGov poll. Changes since last week. Con 40% (nc) Lab 28% (-1) UKIP 13% (+1) LD: 9% (nc)
Loving how some Corbynistas are spinning a 12% deficit as good news, 'shows ICM is an outlier' that kinda stuff.
As if a 12% lead wouldn't see Labour get smashed like the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidon
Might want to begin to negotiate immediately after that...
However, Canada corrected Dr Fox after he suggested that “very fruitful” bilateral trade talks with Ottowa had begun. Chrystia Freeland, the international trade minister, said that the talks were “positive” but they were largely about Canada’s deal with the EU as a whole.
It is hard to see this ending happily.
Stephen Kinnock has been accused of hiding his daughter’s private education during his selection process for his seat. In 2014 Kinnock told Wales Online that “it is highly misleading to say that our daughter attended a private school”. Except Johanna Kinnock did attend a private school from 2013 to 2015, the prestigious £29,000-a-year Atlantic College in the Vale of Glamorgan.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/27/242524/
The fact they wouldn't have selected him if he had told the truth is rather pathetic.
:-)
I seem to be in a minority of one here but I quite like HRC. I don't have an issue with emails or anything like that and we've all said and done things we might regret or wish had been done differently. As a result, I've little concern with America under her stewardship. Trump, on the other hand, is madder than a box of frogs.
On matters Halifax, Mrs Stodge is unimpressed with the voice of Wilma Flintstone but I did point out the original speaker has probably been dead 30 years or more. Nice to see a distant echo of my distant childhood.
Yesterday's ICM poll got the Conservatives on here over-excited but Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics states "if you want big changes, have a big defeat, not a big victory". The personal and political humiliation of a heavy defeat (and I won't use portside analogies) will have an impact just as the magnitude of the 1997 defeat affected Conservative politics.
One other thought for the morning - I do sense the tax cutting brigade think they have an ally at No.11 and I wonder if we will see a move away from the nuanced policies of the Coalition years which concentrated on raising personal allowances and instead Hammond's first Budget will go straight for cuts in tax rates across the board.
We still have a mountain of debt and a large deficit but I suppose the fans of Laffer will scream that any tax cut will bring in more revenue and the wealthy are already paying so much (not surprising, they earn more so they pay more) they need a break. My local Government financial friend is very much of the view the 2017-18 round will be brutal and he's already planning for up to 15% reductions in Government funding.
We have a huge advantage over the Japanese; Brits are feckless consumers under almost all circumstances. It's a mad world; thrift is bad, extravagance is good.
But she's obviously superior to trump despite bring the epitome of a phony politician.
Re the deficit, did you not get the memo that no o e cares about it anymore? The public get too upset now at every cut and the government lacks the numbers to get through difficult choices, so they wo t even bother anymore.
Trump on the other hand.
I suspect in fact it is all hot air and he will change utterly when in office (but I'd rather not take the risk and find out frankly).
QE (our very own financial methadone) keeps the lid on everything for now - the British economy which always had a lot of inflation in it, is now functioning on zero interest rates, zero inflation and virtually zero growth.
#neverFrump.