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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    edited July 2016
    Vegas was best described to me as like a car crash on the other side of the highway, you can't help but slow down & peak at what is going on, but then having seen a seriously injured person you spend the rest of the day feeling morally dirty.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,117
    MaxPB said:

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    UMP > EPP > Commission.

    Could be worse.
    It doesn't matter, the commission are being sidelined, the Council has already chosen a Belgian diplomat to lead the talks. This is Juncker desperately playing catch up to try and keep his job.
    Yes, an interesting dynamic.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    stodge said:


    I shall be in Disneyworld Florida enjoying the weather (!).

    I normally don't celebrate minor battles, the most important and impressive battle to be fought on August the 2nd is the Battle of Chaeronea.

    Mrs Stodge and I are considering Florida for our winter break. You can be assured Disneyworld won't be on the list. We like the look of Fort Lauderdale for a few days followed by a short cruise on one of the big Royal Caribbean ships followed by a few more days in Fort Lauderdale or Miami before heading home.

    I'd rather do Las Vegas or Palm Springs again but Mrs Stodge has vetoed that.

    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.
    Dubai in August? Brave choice!

    Enjoy!
    The humidity in Florida, and bugs big enough to fly home on too...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543

    MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    Besides which they only report opinion poll findings that they themselves commission, leaving their target audience none the wiser that Labour is up to 16% behind in the polls unless they tap in to another news source.
    I'm fairly certain they covered the ICM poll yesterday
    Only in the live blog, I don't think there was proper coverage.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    Quelle surprise....... Not
  • Vegas was best described to me as like a car crash on the other side of the highway, you can't help but slow down & peak at what is going on, but then having seen a seriously injured person you spend the rest of the day feeling morally dirty.

    What the worst thing they do at some of the casinos is they give you free drinks if you keep on playing at the tables, that's a disaster waiting to happen, fortunately, as a good Muslim boy, I turned down the drinks.

    It was the sheer number of high class hookers in Vegas there that surprised me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    Besides which they only report opinion poll findings that they themselves commission, leaving their target audience none the wiser that Labour is up to 16% behind in the polls unless they tap in to another news source.
    I'm fairly certain they covered the ICM poll yesterday
    Only in the live blog, I don't think there was proper coverage.
    They have given proper coverage to polls in the past though...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCLfAG-WEAAZ4g2.png
  • stodge said:


    I shall be in Disneyworld Florida enjoying the weather (!).

    I normally don't celebrate minor battles, the most important and impressive battle to be fought on August the 2nd is the Battle of Chaeronea.

    Mrs Stodge and I are considering Florida for our winter break. You can be assured Disneyworld won't be on the list. We like the look of Fort Lauderdale for a few days followed by a short cruise on one of the big Royal Caribbean ships followed by a few more days in Fort Lauderdale or Miami before heading home.

    I'd rather do Las Vegas or Palm Springs again but Mrs Stodge has vetoed that.

    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.
    Dubai in August? Brave choice!

    Enjoy!
    I went for work related reasons a few summers ago.

    I just about coped. Is only for a few days.
  • ICYMI

    Times/YouGov poll. Changes since last week. Con 40% (nc) Lab 28% (-1) UKIP 13% (+1) LD: 9% (nc)

    Loving how some Corbynistas are spinning a 12% deficit as good news, 'shows ICM is an outlier' that kinda stuff.

    As if a 12% lead wouldn't see Labour get smashed like the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidon

    This is a 12% lead in mid-term (albeit during a PM-change honeymoon). What it would be after four weeks of Corbyn leading Labour during a general election campaign is another matter.
    It is the debates that will be most enjoyable to watch.

    I suspect Theresa May will be quoting some of Corbyn's back catalogue to him.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378

    Though Hague got this from Day One. His problem was that he simply wasn't strong enough to challenge Blair on the centre ground at the time and had he continued with the preemptive modernisation project he began, the Tories would have been smashed in the centre because he'd have been a second-rate version of Blair, and would also have crumbled on the right as they wouldn't have supported what he was putting forward. Hence what ultimately turned into a very defensive campaign in 2001.

    What Hague did do as leader, which was of lasting benefit, was to reform the Conservatives' internal structures and make them fit for the 21st century rather than the 1950s.

    Reading accounts of the time, it's astonishing how atrophied the Conservative Party had become in 1997 and how much by contrast Labour had modernised.

    I think this is key - opposition gives parties the opportunity to internally modernise, overhaul organisation and campaigning structures and generally re-invent the wheel. The problem is the time it takes for that realisation and the internal willingness to make it happen.

    Labour, arguably, began the process in 1983 with the election of Kinnock just as the Conservatives did with the election of Hague in 1997. It's not a straight line or easily quantifiable process and there are plenty of variables. It's not a damascene moment, more a series of steps.

    For Labour now, as I've said for some time, the question should be how to define Britain in the 2020s and to have a series of policies to provide stable, effective Government to the benefit of the people.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    Besides which they only report opinion poll findings that they themselves commission, leaving their target audience none the wiser that Labour is up to 16% behind in the polls unless they tap in to another news source.
    I'm fairly certain they covered the ICM poll yesterday
    Only in the live blog, I don't think there was proper coverage.
    Yeah, Andrew Sparrow blogs all polls, top bloke.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,138

    PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members
    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members

    "The Guardian retains cash and investments of £765m, down from £838.3m last year, and its stake in Ascential was worth £206m in April following the writedown."

    I remember when annual losses in the operating business was £50m a year and they promised to cut that back. Last year they lost £69m. This cash mountain is falling quickly. I wonder when they will end printing.
    I really don’t see a long-term market for paid-for print NEWSpapers. Or even a medium term one, unless they’re “quick and easy", like the i. Magazines are possibly safer, and possibly, too, the big weekend editions with lots of specialist sections.
    It’s finding the alternative financial model that’s tricky. How are the on-line subscription papers doing?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    After the crowning will Monica parade in THAT DRESS? ;)
  • MikeK said:

    After the crowning will Monica parade in THAT DRESS? ;)

    image
  • RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
    Yup, only way is down, now that George Osborne's stewardship of the economy is over.

    Within a few months there'll be riots in the streets demanding Theresa May makes Osborne Chancellor again.
    Fighting the fight for Osborne to the bitter end. A hopeless fight.
    Who?
    TSE.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,138

    MikeK said:

    After the crowning will Monica parade in THAT DRESS? ;)

    image
    I thought Monica IS American. Or does she mean job-share?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    .....and if she does, where will she parade it? (see 10:16am)
    https://twitter.com/CatesbyMilitant/status/758134578364153856
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2016
    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378



    What the worst thing they do at some of the casinos is they give you free drinks if you keep on playing at the tables, that's a disaster waiting to happen, fortunately, as a good Muslim boy, I turned down the drinks.

    It was the sheer number of high class hookers in Vegas there that surprised me.

    I only ever have a soft drink if I'm playing the tables - I've seen too many idiots getting drunk and you know they're going to lose their shirts and a whole lot else. Even when I'm at the racecourse, I don't drink alcohol. Nothing to do with religion - I just find sound judgement and alcohol don't mix. If you want to drink and gamble, play the slots.

    As for the hookers, Mrs Stodge has told me in no uncertain terms what will happen if I take a card from one of the Hispanic gentlemen offering them on the sidewalk. I find Vegas "adult" but not sleazy especially on the Strip but during the day it's perfectly fine for families though being parted from your cash by your children wanting to have their picture taken with someone dressed as a minion is to be expected.


  • PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members
    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members

    "The Guardian retains cash and investments of £765m, down from £838.3m last year, and its stake in Ascential was worth £206m in April following the writedown."

    I remember when annual losses in the operating business was £50m a year and they promised to cut that back. Last year they lost £69m. This cash mountain is falling quickly. I wonder when they will end printing.
    I really don’t see a long-term market for paid-for print NEWSpapers. Or even a medium term one, unless they’re “quick and easy", like the i. Magazines are possibly safer, and possibly, too, the big weekend editions with lots of specialist sections.
    It’s finding the alternative financial model that’s tricky. How are the on-line subscription papers doing?
    http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/times-newspapers-profits-near-11-million-paywall-offsets-ad-decline/1388802#
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.

    I was chatting to an old farmer patient yesterday still working at age 81 ("I would rather wear out than rust out" he said to me a few years back).

    The wheat harvest is going to be really poor because of the cold wet weather this year. On the other hand he has done well on his lambs exported to France due to the devaluation of Sterling.

    He voted Brexit because of democratic deficit, but forecasting gloom for British farming as a result.
    Trust me, farmers complain whatever the weather. If it's good for wheat, it may not be good for a winter planting. Or for maize, or beet, etc etc
    Yes, I know a few farmers and they are well known to always have something to grumble about! It is a curious asset rich/income poor lifestyle. One friend owns 2 000 acres of mixed arable farm, which he works with his son and earns about £25 000 income per year (though outgoings are low as he lives on the farm and spends nearly nothing on food).

    Apparently about 60% of British Lamb is exported to the EU, so selling well, but other produce less well. The problem with farming is that when it is a good year for harvest then it is a good year for others too, so the price falls, and in a poor year others do badly too and the price goes up. There is a certain amount of built in stabilisation.

    The emphasis in CAP on environment compared to price support does mean that any post Brexit government is going to have to continue some acgricultural subsidies if it wants to maintain a green and pleasant countryside.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 92,251
    edited July 2016
    stodge said:



    What the worst thing they do at some of the casinos is they give you free drinks if you keep on playing at the tables, that's a disaster waiting to happen, fortunately, as a good Muslim boy, I turned down the drinks.

    It was the sheer number of high class hookers in Vegas there that surprised me.

    I only ever have a soft drink if I'm playing the tables - I've seen too many idiots getting drunk and you know they're going to lose their shirts and a whole lot else. Even when I'm at the racecourse, I don't drink alcohol. Nothing to do with religion - I just find sound judgement and alcohol don't mix. If you want to drink and gamble, play the slots.

    As for the hookers, Mrs Stodge has told me in no uncertain terms what will happen if I take a card from one of the Hispanic gentlemen offering them on the sidewalk. I find Vegas "adult" but not sleazy especially on the Strip but during the day it's perfectly fine for families though being parted from your cash by your children wanting to have their picture taken with someone dressed as a minion is to be expected.


    I know but like you, I've seen far too many people get drunk and lose more money than they can't afford.

    Being an innocent type, on my first visit, I accidentally took one of those flyers, thinking it was offering places to eat/party/spend time, not realising it was for ladies of the night.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,138

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.

    I was chatting to an old farmer patient yesterday still working at age 81 ("I would rather wear out than rust out" he said to me a few years back).

    The wheat harvest is going to be really poor because of the cold wet weather this year. On the other hand he has done well on his lambs exported to France due to the devaluation of Sterling.

    He voted Brexit because of democratic deficit, but forecasting gloom for British farming as a result.
    Trust me, farmers complain whatever the weather. If it's good for wheat, it may not be good for a winter planting. Or for maize, or beet, etc etc
    Yes, I know a few farmers and they are well known to always have something to grumble about! It is a curious asset rich/income poor lifestyle. One friend owns 2 000 acres of mixed arable farm, which he works with his son and earns about £25 000 income per year (though outgoings are low as he lives on the farm and spends nearly nothing on food).

    Apparently about 60% of British Lamb is exported to the EU, so selling well, but other produce less well. The problem with farming is that when it is a good year for harvest then it is a good year for others too, so the price falls, and in a poor year others do badly too and the price goes up. There is a certain amount of built in stabilisation.

    The emphasis in CAP on environment compared to price support does mean that any post Brexit government is going to have to continue some acgricultural subsidies if it wants to maintain a green and pleasant countryside.
    Somewhere I’ve seen a cynical version of the Beaufort Scale for farmers; something about two days rain, farmers complain of ruined crop’s, two days drought, farmers complain of drought.
    Must be on the web somewhere but I can’t find it!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Some of the most fervent PB Brexiteers also do not live in Blighty.

    Rather like the patriotic Irish and Scots you meet in their diasporas. Love their homeland but not crazy enough to actually want to live there.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378


    I know but like you, I've seen far too many people get drunk and lose more money than they can afford.

    Being an innocent type, on my first visit, I accidentally took one of those flyers, thinking it was offering places to eat/party/spend time, not realising it was for ladies of the night.

    Yep, just as Mr Knopfler once reminded us "money for nothing and the drinks for free". The casinos don't mind you winning small and winning often - they have enough losers to be able to cope with the few winners.

    I've always done well in Vegas - I start with a betting bank of $1000 and any profits go into food and shopping money for Mrs Stodge. Yes, it's been the Food Court on the odd occasion when it hasn't gone well but I can normally win enough for decent restaurants and Mrs Stodge sorts out any bookings for evening shows if we have a good session albeit at the half price ticket booths.

    I'm not averse to buffets though there aren't many really good ones in my view. I do enjoy a good breakfast and there are three or four wonderful places I always visit - my favourite currently is the Terrace Pointe Café in The Wynn, a little on from the main buffet.

  • So PBers, what's the absolute minimum number of seats Labour needs to win in 2020 to have a realistic chance of winning a small majority (say 20 seat majority) in 2025.

    I'm assuming 600 seat parliament from 2020 onwards.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses (<50 folk) the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,138

    PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members
    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members

    "The Guardian retains cash and investments of £765m, down from £838.3m last year, and its stake in Ascential was worth £206m in April following the writedown."

    I remember when annual losses in the operating business was £50m a year and they promised to cut that back. Last year they lost £69m. This cash mountain is falling quickly. I wonder when they will end printing.
    I really don’t see a long-term market for paid-for print NEWSpapers. Or even a medium term one, unless they’re “quick and easy", like the i. Magazines are possibly safer, and possibly, too, the big weekend editions with lots of specialist sections.
    It’s finding the alternative financial model that’s tricky. How are the on-line subscription papers doing?
    http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/times-newspapers-profits-near-11-million-paywall-offsets-ad-decline/1388802#
    Thanks. Mixed picture, isn’t it! Wonder whether the run-up to the General Election had an effect.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,059

    So PBers, what's the absolute minimum number of seats Labour needs to win in 2020 to have a realistic chance of winning a small majority (say 20 seat majority) in 2025.

    I'm assuming 600 seat parliament from 2020 onwards.

    200
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    CD13 said:

    The refrain on here is that Trump is absurd, idiotic, or straight forward mad. Although I'm no expert on US politics, my view is that he's none of those. He is a good politician, he knows what works with his voters. HRC is a poor politician, riding on the coat tails of connections and money.

    Incidentally, I don't regard being a good politician as a compliment, but it's easy to make the old mistake of thinking that people who disagree with you must be wrong and/or stupid (the default setting for the "elite").

    Trumps actual policies aren't extreme for the Republican party, it's only his manner and some of his pubic utterances that are designed to set up howls of rage from the that same elite. He's playing them like a violin.

    He might win, he probably won't, but he's the Bernie of the GOP. And the public current mood in many countries is for an "outsider".

    If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think.

    An actor won big not long ago. No one expected that either.

    Edit: "If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think." I wish I could say the same about Jezza.

    A peanut farmer won a bit longer ago. However 'Bernie' lost while Trump won. (Usual occupation of POTUS is a Lawyer - at least recently, initially they tended to be farmers/ plantation owners.)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,117
    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.

    Small businesses is not surprising: how many cornershops are going to trade internationally?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543
    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.

    This is why the nation is not going to completely fade away outside of the EU.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    stodge said:


    I know but like you, I've seen far too many people get drunk and lose more money than they can afford.

    Being an innocent type, on my first visit, I accidentally took one of those flyers, thinking it was offering places to eat/party/spend time, not realising it was for ladies of the night.

    Yep, just as Mr Knopfler once reminded us "money for nothing and the drinks for free". The casinos don't mind you winning small and winning often - they have enough losers to be able to cope with the few winners.

    I've always done well in Vegas - I start with a betting bank of $1000 and any profits go into food and shopping money for Mrs Stodge. Yes, it's been the Food Court on the odd occasion when it hasn't gone well but I can normally win enough for decent restaurants and Mrs Stodge sorts out any bookings for evening shows if we have a good session albeit at the half price ticket booths.

    I'm not averse to buffets though there aren't many really good ones in my view. I do enjoy a good breakfast and there are three or four wonderful places I always visit - my favourite currently is the Terrace Pointe Café in The Wynn, a little on from the main buffet.

    He said "chicks for free" actually, very much not the case in Las Vegas aiui.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299

    So PBers, what's the absolute minimum number of seats Labour needs to win in 2020 to have a realistic chance of winning a small majority (say 20 seat majority) in 2025.

    I'm assuming 600 seat parliament from 2020 onwards.

    Think they'd need to be at most 90 behind that scenario which would be 220. Given the boundary changes that would imply gains on the current position.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2016

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.

    I was chatting to an old farmer patient yesterday still working at age 81 ("I would rather wear out than rust out" he said to me a few years back).

    The wheat harvest is going to be really poor because of the cold wet weather this year. On the other hand he has done well on his lambs exported to France due to the devaluation of Sterling.

    He voted Brexit because of democratic deficit, but forecasting gloom for British farming as a result.
    Trust me, farmers complain whatever the weather. If it's good for wheat, it may not be good for a winter planting. Or for maize, or beet, etc etc
    Yes, I know a few farmers and they are well known to always have something to grumble about! It is a curious asset rich/income poor lifestyle. One friend owns 2 000 acres of mixed arable farm, which he works with his son and earns about £25 000 income per year (though outgoings are low as he lives on the farm and spends nearly nothing on food).

    Apparently about 60% of British Lamb is exported to the EU, so selling well, but other produce less well. The problem with farming is that when it is a good year for harvest then it is a good year for others too, so the price falls, and in a poor year others do badly too and the price goes up. There is a certain amount of built in stabilisation.

    The emphasis in CAP on environment compared to price support does mean that any post Brexit government is going to have to continue some acgricultural subsidies if it wants to maintain a green and pleasant countryside.
    Somewhere I’ve seen a cynical version of the Beaufort Scale for farmers; something about two days rain, farmers complain of ruined crop’s, two days drought, farmers complain of drought.
    Must be on the web somewhere but I can’t find it!
    One thing I note about farmers is how much they love the life. They slow down but rarely truly retire.

    I remember treating one old farmer when I was working in Truro that in 85 years had only left Cornwall once. He went to an agricultural show in Somerset, but couldn't enjoy it as he was worried about his cows and wanted to get back as quickly as possible. I am jealous in some ways of someone so attached to place and land.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,453
    edited July 2016

    So PBers, what's the absolute minimum number of seats Labour needs to win in 2020 to have a realistic chance of winning a small majority (say 20 seat majority) in 2025.

    I'm assuming 600 seat parliament from 2020 onwards.

    I doubt the next non Conservative Gov't will be a Labour majority actually !
    Also we could have a 451541 parliament in 2025..
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.

    Small businesses is not surprising: how many cornershops are going to trade internationally?
    A corner shop is a micro business. Small companies are up to 50 employees. SME's account for about 60% of the private sector workforce.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    They aren't hookers in Vegas, they are just extremely friendly ladies who need help paying for college.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    They aren't hookers in Vegas, they are just extremely friendly ladies who need help paying for college.

    Prostitution is illegal in Las Vegas, and therefore by definition cannot happen there. But there are licensed brothels just down the road in the attractively named Pahrump.
  • AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    Interesting choice. He was Commissioner for Internal Market and Services for years, and knows a lot about financial services, banking union and digital markets.

    Trouble is: he's French, and EPP. Which means (a) he'll probably be very tough on the UK and (b) his sympathies will be very federalist.

    I can see why Juncker would like him.
    M. Wiggy takes on the Brits.
  • They aren't hookers in Vegas, they are just extremely friendly ladies who need help paying for college.

    Your honour, she's not a hooker, she's a condom seller who was giving me a demonstration on how to use her product.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    They aren't hookers in Vegas, they are just extremely friendly ladies who need help paying for college.

    "Ladies of negotiable affection" as the great pterry put it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So PBers, what's the absolute minimum number of seats Labour needs to win in 2020 to have a realistic chance of winning a small majority (say 20 seat majority) in 2025.

    I'm assuming 600 seat parliament from 2020 onwards.

    I doubt the next non Conservative Gov't will be a Labour majority actually !
    Also we could have a 451541 parliament in 2025..
    Interesting.

    Thanks to Jonathan and ToryJim for their thoughts too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    Forty-four people have been killed in a double bombing in a Kurdish-controlled city of Qamishli in north-east Syria, Syrian state TV reports.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.

    This is why the nation is not going to completely fade away outside of the EU.
    I like counter-factuals. It genuinely surprised me.

    It's like the arguments about freedom of movement. When you look at the numbers it's a minority pursuit. 1.8% of Brits live in the EU27 (that's fewer than Brits in Oz). 3.6% of the EU live in other member states (and that's double counting the Brits). When we leave it'll drop to 3.5%.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    I hear the Sahara is even sunnier and cheaper. Check it out.
    Would be a good place for you to clear some of your cra..constipation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    Mr Kinnock's eldest daughter Johanna attended Atlantic College, near Llantwit Major, in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2013 to 2015. He said her study was "partly funded by a standard Danish state scholarship".

    When in a hole, stop digging.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,217

    alex. said:

    Betting related post, in a Times article, headlined

    'We won’t talk about trade until after Brexit, says US'

    Liam Fox says this

    Speaking in Washington, Dr Fox appeared to tone down his earlier optimistic rhetoric on trade, saying that “we cannot negotiate any new trade deals as long as we are part of the EU, which we will be for probably the next two years, with an exit in early 2019. We want to have discussions and to scope out any possible deals that we might want to do immediately after that.”

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-spurns-offer-of-trade-talks-wsk6gc5wx

    "might want to do immediately after that" ;)

    Might want to begin to negotiate immediately after that...
    Liam Fox isn't exactly inspiring confidence at the moment.

    However, Canada corrected Dr Fox after he suggested that “very fruitful” bilateral trade talks with Ottowa had begun. Chrystia Freeland, the international trade minister, said that the talks were “positive” but they were largely about Canada’s deal with the EU as a whole.
    Nothing Fox says can be taken at face value because he is going to spin everything positively for Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543
    Labour will need a minimum of 210 seats to have a shot at a majority in 2025. Dave made 96 gains at the end of 13 years of Labour government with the boundaries against him and he was a strong leader vs a weak one. I don't see how, under the new boundaries, Labour could hope to beat that even if everything went right and Brexit turns out to be an absolutely disaster with thr blame resting on the Tories. The other problem is that Labour will more than likely need direct Con -> Lab gains because I don't see the SNP losing more than a handful of seats in 2020 and the Lib Dems won't gain many either. The Tories won in 2015 by hollowing out rhe Lib Dems and holding the line against Labour. Labour don't have that easier option and must beat the Tories directly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543
    OllyT said:

    alex. said:

    Betting related post, in a Times article, headlined

    'We won’t talk about trade until after Brexit, says US'

    Liam Fox says this

    Speaking in Washington, Dr Fox appeared to tone down his earlier optimistic rhetoric on trade, saying that “we cannot negotiate any new trade deals as long as we are part of the EU, which we will be for probably the next two years, with an exit in early 2019. We want to have discussions and to scope out any possible deals that we might want to do immediately after that.”

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-spurns-offer-of-trade-talks-wsk6gc5wx

    "might want to do immediately after that" ;)

    Might want to begin to negotiate immediately after that...
    Liam Fox isn't exactly inspiring confidence at the moment.

    However, Canada corrected Dr Fox after he suggested that “very fruitful” bilateral trade talks with Ottowa had begun. Chrystia Freeland, the international trade minister, said that the talks were “positive” but they were largely about Canada’s deal with the EU as a whole.
    Nothing Fox says can be taken at face value because he is going to spin everything positively for Brexit.
    You have to remember that Canada wants to complete the CETA as soon as possible. It probably doesn't help them for Fox to be going around saying that they have opened up talks with the UK which the EU views as illegitimate given that we haven't left yet.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840
    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    I remain a UK citizen and pay most of my taxes in the UK and vote in Uk elections.. It has never been a secret that I live in Spain. Why on earth would that be a problem for a non-bigot?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @foxinsox

    "The emphasis in CAP on environment compared to price support does mean that any post Brexit government is going to have to continue some acgricultural subsidies if it wants to maintain a green and pleasant countryside."

    You are probably correct, Doc, and I wouldn't have a problem with that as long as the subsidies are properly targeted. At present around here we currently have prime agricultural land left fallow whilst agribusinesses continue to plough up the tops of the South Downs to the point that there is very little soil left and the crops (mainly non-food crops) can only grow because of the chemicals they spread on the land. There aren't many farmers in West Sussex who have the sense of place of your Cornish dairy farmer.

    Does anyone know how well the countryside is managed in New Zealand? They weaned their farmers of subsidies decades ago.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.

    Small businesses is not surprising: how many cornershops are going to trade internationally?
    Many small businesses also grow online but the EU is so far behind the UK in developing the web model it makes it slower to progress, not to mention all the language and logistics problems.

    Overseas mail/parcel delivery is often dreadful when in the hands of national couriers. Our model is surprisingly good.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840
    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2016
    felix said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    I remain a UK citizen and pay most of my taxes in the UK and vote in Uk elections.. It has never been a secret that I live in Spain. Why on earth would that be a problem for a non-bigot?
    Original Deleted..not worth a reply
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.

    This is why the nation is not going to completely fade away outside of the EU.
    I like counter-factuals. It genuinely surprised me.

    It's like the arguments about freedom of movement. When you look at the numbers it's a minority pursuit. 1.8% of Brits live in the EU27 (that's fewer than Brits in Oz). 3.6% of the EU live in other member states (and that's double counting the Brits). When we leave it'll drop to 3.5%.
    Special interests always shout loudly, to make them seem less 'special'.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Mr Kinnock's eldest daughter Johanna attended Atlantic College, near Llantwit Major, in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2013 to 2015. He said her study was "partly funded by a standard Danish state scholarship".

    When in a hole, stop digging.

    There's something rotten in standard Danish state scholarships.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840
    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    I remain a UK citizen and pay most of my taxes in the UK and vote in Uk elections.. It has never been a secret that I live in Spain. Why on earth would that be a problem for a non-bigot?
    Original Deleted..not worth a reply
    Oh dear! I have a teacher's pension - wholly taxed in the UK. I have a private pension wholly taxed in Spain exactly as required by the double tax treaty. I have savings in both with taxes fully paid in both. I pay for private healthcare and claim no benefits either in Spain or the UK.
    You really are making a tit of yourself.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,530

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    Besides which they only report opinion poll findings that they themselves commission, leaving their target audience none the wiser that Labour is up to 16% behind in the polls unless they tap in to another news source.
    I'm fairly certain they covered the ICM poll yesterday
    Only in the live blog, I don't think there was proper coverage.
    Yeah, Andrew Sparrow blogs all polls, top bloke.
    When you need to scroll halfway down a live blog to find a passing mention, you might as well come here for your news. I tried searching using their search engine and it still throws up nothing. And besides, going back to where we started regarding their business model, it still leaves anyone who shells out cash for the Guardian printed product none the wiser on the latest polling.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    I tried to make the observation as neutral as I could :).

    At this point, I'm just going to play the cards as they are dealt. If Spain decides that it is in its national interest to repatriate British citizens, or elderly Brits desire to return home due to impoverishment, we'll take it from there. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof and all that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 7,277
    weejonnie said:

    CD13 said:

    The refrain on here is that Trump is absurd, idiotic, or straight forward mad. Although I'm no expert on US politics, my view is that he's none of those. He is a good politician, he knows what works with his voters. HRC is a poor politician, riding on the coat tails of connections and money.

    Incidentally, I don't regard being a good politician as a compliment, but it's easy to make the old mistake of thinking that people who disagree with you must be wrong and/or stupid (the default setting for the "elite").

    Trumps actual policies aren't extreme for the Republican party, it's only his manner and some of his pubic utterances that are designed to set up howls of rage from the that same elite. He's playing them like a violin.

    He might win, he probably won't, but he's the Bernie of the GOP. And the public current mood in many countries is for an "outsider".

    If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think.

    An actor won big not long ago. No one expected that either.

    Edit: "If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think." I wish I could say the same about Jezza.

    A peanut farmer won a bit longer ago. However 'Bernie' lost while Trump won. (Usual occupation of POTUS is a Lawyer - at least recently, initially they tended to be farmers/ plantation owners.)
    Reagan is interesting.

    An actor and President of the Screen Actors Guild. He was also a motivational speaker (says Wiki) in the 1950s.

    But he did not switch from Democrat to Republican until he was in his 50s, and became Governor of Cali only 4 years later.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,718
    It is of course historic that for the first time and a mere 41 years after the Tories elected their first woman leader that a US political party has nominated a woman as Presidential candidate.

    I can't help feeling two things though:-

    1. Hilary's desire for the Presidency seems at times to be part of the psychodrama of her marriage to Bill, as if she is entitled to this as some sort of reward for Bill's philandering.
    2. Every time Bill speaks, I can't help feeling that the wrong Clinton has been chosen.

    Ah well. She's probably better than Trump.

    Still what a choice. At a time when real leadership across the Western world is needed, those in power or seeking power are third rate nonentities with no real leadership skills or all too willing to inflame passions and damn the consequences if it will bring them power.

    We badly need good leaders.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299
    MaxPB said:

    Labour will need a minimum of 210 seats to have a shot at a majority in 2025. Dave made 96 gains at the end of 13 years of Labour government with the boundaries against him and he was a strong leader vs a weak one. I don't see how, under the new boundaries, Labour could hope to beat that even if everything went right and Brexit turns out to be an absolutely disaster with thr blame resting on the Tories. The other problem is that Labour will more than likely need direct Con -> Lab gains because I don't see the SNP losing more than a handful of seats in 2020 and the Lib Dems won't gain many either. The Tories won in 2015 by hollowing out rhe Lib Dems and holding the line against Labour. Labour don't have that easier option and must beat the Tories directly.

    That would have the requiring 91 gains to teeter over the line. I agree SNP won't relinquish seats easily so you are looking at 80+ lab to con switches in circumstances where that will be harder. Labour have already lost 2 elections if they head markedly backwards at the next one it isn't the extra seats they lose that are the problem but those that have already gone down that become progressively harder to eat into. There are probably already 230-240 seats the Tories are highly unlikely to lose in one go, that will nudge towards 280-290 under current polling which should have Labour minds focused. That it doesn't is staggering!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    So PBers, what's the absolute minimum number of seats Labour needs to win in 2020 to have a realistic chance of winning a small majority (say 20 seat majority) in 2025.

    I'm assuming 600 seat parliament from 2020 onwards.

    I doubt the next non Conservative Gov't will be a Labour majority actually !
    Also we could have a 451541 parliament in 2025..
    A 541 parly is very unlikely under PM May.

    And hence very unlikely to be a factor in the 2025 GE.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    Labour will need a minimum of 210 seats to have a shot at a majority in 2025. Dave made 96 gains at the end of 13 years of Labour government with the boundaries against him and he was a strong leader vs a weak one. I don't see how, under the new boundaries, Labour could hope to beat that even if everything went right and Brexit turns out to be an absolutely disaster with thr blame resting on the Tories. The other problem is that Labour will more than likely need direct Con -> Lab gains because I don't see the SNP losing more than a handful of seats in 2020 and the Lib Dems won't gain many either. The Tories won in 2015 by hollowing out rhe Lib Dems and holding the line against Labour. Labour don't have that easier option and must beat the Tories directly.

    As I recall Labour in 2015 in England made a handful of net gains, the losses being in Scotland. The other component of the Tory majority was the near wipeout of the LDs across much of the UK.

    I did some sums on Electoral Calculus and even with Labour on 15% it still gave over 100 seats on current boundaries. The obliteration of Labour will be quite difficult. I can see perhaps 150 seats out of 600 under Jezza in 2020, but more significantly the entrenchment Momentum meaning that nobreturn to a parliamentary majority possible for decades.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    They would not be a huge burden at all, there are far to few of them for it to matter much.

    Not that I think there is the slightest chance of them being forced to return. Elderly Brits lived abroad before 1973.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 7,277

    PlatoSaid said:
    "politicians should form a progressive alliance"

    amazing insight.
    Didn't Nick-Nack Paddywhack just do that?

    :-o
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Lord Turnbull has ruled against the #IndyCamp; he says it would not breach campers human rights for @ScotParl to evict them.

    ...and there was much rejoicing
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    They would not be a huge burden at all, there are far to few of them for it to matter much.

    Not that I think there is the slightest chance of them being forced to return. Elderly Brits lived abroad before 1973.
    I think the point is that British emigrés have had their income cut by ~8% due to the fall against the Euro, with likely more to come.

    It's interesting that there are 100k fewer Brits in Spain now than in 2012.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Apparently Owen Smith is giving a "major" speech...

    https://twitter.com/sean_kemp/status/758245066049748992
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,718
    Off topic: I noticed from last night's thread a lot of good natured sneering at the backward state of the Southern Italian economy and its politics. All very true, no doubt.

    And yet, remember, that the vast corruption uncovered in the 1990's by Operazione Mani Pulite was found in Milan and spread its tentacles all across the business and political establishment of the oh-so-superior North.

    Those in glasshouses etc.......
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh

    I'd like to know what the actual fuck 'privatising the national debt' is supposed to mean.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840
    John_M said:

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    I tried to make the observation as neutral as I could :).

    At this point, I'm just going to play the cards as they are dealt. If Spain decides that it is in its national interest to repatriate British citizens, or elderly Brits desire to return home due to impoverishment, we'll take it from there. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof and all that.
    One hopes that both sides will be sensible. Spain may try to be silly by involving Gibraltar in the discussions [ mind you if you've been there, apart from the weather its a pretty naff dump!] while the UK has David Davis - although to be fair so far he's still sounding mostly sane. :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,847
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses (<50 folk) the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.</p>

    Although those datasets should be treated with a large degree of caution. Let me give you an example. When I worked at Goldman Sachs, I was technically an employee of Goldman Sachs Services Ltd, on secondment to another company (who's name I forget). There were literally hundreds of companies under the Goldman Sachs International Ltd umbrella. And most of them didn't export.

    (Why so many firms? My guess was to use limited liability cover to ensure that problems in one part might be firewalled. But that's only a guess.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,712
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Owen Smith is giving a "major" speech...

    https://twitter.com/sean_kemp/status/758245066049748992

    Just as a gazillion US flags & a mega screen 'is' Trump, this backdrop just screams Owen Smith.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,077
    MattW said:

    weejonnie said:

    CD13 said:

    The refrain on here is that Trump is absurd, idiotic, or straight forward mad. Although I'm no expert on US politics, my view is that he's none of those. He is a good politician, he knows what works with his voters. HRC is a poor politician, riding on the coat tails of connections and money.

    Incidentally, I don't regard being a good politician as a compliment, but it's easy to make the old mistake of thinking that people who disagree with you must be wrong and/or stupid (the default setting for the "elite").

    Trumps actual policies aren't extreme for the Republican party, it's only his manner and some of his pubic utterances that are designed to set up howls of rage from the that same elite. He's playing them like a violin.

    He might win, he probably won't, but he's the Bernie of the GOP. And the public current mood in many countries is for an "outsider".

    If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think.

    An actor won big not long ago. No one expected that either.

    Edit: "If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think." I wish I could say the same about Jezza.

    A peanut farmer won a bit longer ago. However 'Bernie' lost while Trump won. (Usual occupation of POTUS is a Lawyer - at least recently, initially they tended to be farmers/ plantation owners.)
    Reagan is interesting.

    An actor and President of the Screen Actors Guild. He was also a motivational speaker (says Wiki) in the 1950s.

    But he did not switch from Democrat to Republican until he was in his 50s, and became Governor of Cali only 4 years later.
    His brief speech at the convention after losing the nomination in 76 was one of those moments when people realised they picked the wrong man.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eSmfldz_bA
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    They would not be a huge burden at all, there are far to few of them for it to matter much.

    Not that I think there is the slightest chance of them being forced to return. Elderly Brits lived abroad before 1973.
    Hmm - there are several hundred thousand in Spain alone - I didn't realise the NHS was quite so unburdened or local council care homes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Just as a gazillion US flags & a mega screen 'is' Trump, this backdrop just screams Owen Smith.

    Vintage David Brent
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh

    Idiot - thankfully he will be returned to obscurity come the end of September.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: Owen Smith says he'd create a new 'Shadow Secretary of State for Labour' ..or it might have been 'Shadow Secretary for State of Labour'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,453

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Owen Smith is giving a "major" speech...

    https://twitter.com/sean_kemp/status/758245066049748992

    Just as a gazillion US flags & a mega screen 'is' Trump, this backdrop just screams Owen Smith.
    He's going to give hope to middle managers everywhere that one day we might run the country :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,718

    PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members
    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members

    "The Guardian retains cash and investments of £765m, down from £838.3m last year, and its stake in Ascential was worth £206m in April following the writedown."

    I remember when annual losses in the operating business was £50m a year and they promised to cut that back. Last year they lost £69m. This cash mountain is falling quickly. I wonder when they will end printing.
    I really don’t see a long-term market for paid-for print NEWSpapers. Or even a medium term one, unless they’re “quick and easy", like the i. Magazines are possibly safer, and possibly, too, the big weekend editions with lots of specialist sections.
    It’s finding the alternative financial model that’s tricky. How are the on-line subscription papers doing?
    http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/times-newspapers-profits-near-11-million-paywall-offsets-ad-decline/1388802#
    Thanks. Mixed picture, isn’t it! Wonder whether the run-up to the General Election had an effect.
    The reason the press is dying is simple. There is very little in most newspapers which is worth reading, let alone paying for. Most of the articles are superficial and uninteresting. And the columnists, with one or two exceptions, are dire.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    They would not be a huge burden at all, there are far to few of them for it to matter much.

    Not that I think there is the slightest chance of them being forced to return. Elderly Brits lived abroad before 1973.
    On the point with regard to pre-1973 I think the past 20 years have seen many more relatively poorer Brits emigrating to Europe most of whom, eg currently access the Spanish NHS. The comparison is really not valid in terms of numbers or type.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,362
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh

    I'd like to know what the actual fuck 'privatising the national debt' is supposed to mean.
    Isn't the national debt always privatised? In sense that individuals or pension schemes buy gilts.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Discovered something interesting on the ONS site. Only 15.2% of all UK companies do any international trade of any sort, either EU or RoW.

    Only 40% of large (>250 folk) companies export. For small businesses (<50 folk) the ratio is even lower, just 10.2%.</p>

    Although those datasets should be treated with a large degree of caution. Let me give you an example. When I worked at Goldman Sachs, I was technically an employee of Goldman Sachs Services Ltd, on secondment to another company (who's name I forget). There were literally hundreds of companies under the Goldman Sachs International Ltd umbrella. And most of them didn't export.

    (Why so many firms? My guess was to use limited liability cover to ensure that problems in one part might be firewalled. But that's only a guess.)
    In fairness, I treat most data with caution, because we're not seeing the raw inputs.

    ONS data is based on the Annual Business Survey, which is based on a sample of 64k companies. Considering there are 5.4 million registered businesses (4.1 million of whom are one-man bands or partnerships), it's a pretty small sample.

    Goldman sounds as dodgy as fuck, pardon my French :).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCVickiYoung: And @OwenSmith_MP pledges to "fix NHS" by spending an extra 4% a year, paid for by 50p top tax rate, wealth tax & no more cuts to corp tax

    Clearly he thinks a 16 point Tory lead in the polls is too low...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    What is a 541 Party svp
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840
    John_M said:

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    They would not be a huge burden at all, there are far to few of them for it to matter much.

    Not that I think there is the slightest chance of them being forced to return. Elderly Brits lived abroad before 1973.
    I think the point is that British emigrés have had their income cut by ~8% due to the fall against the Euro, with likely more to come.

    It's interesting that there are 100k fewer Brits in Spain now than in 2012.
    Yes - the 2008 property crash has had a big impact - especially for those working abroad. Pensioners have been more insulated although very low sterling rates 2008-12 made life tough for many of them too. The 'real' figures are quite difficult as many never register as either leaving the UK or becoming resident in Spain!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    What is a 541 Party svp

    541 Parly if Scotland gets Indy.

    Which isn't happening any time soon.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh

    I'd like to know what the actual fuck 'privatising the national debt' is supposed to mean.
    Isn't the national debt always privatised? In sense that individuals or pension schemes buy gilts.
    I'm baffled. I'm not trying to make any particular point. I can parse the sentence but my brain just goes 'wtf?'.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh

    Idiot - thankfully he will be returned to obscurity come the end of September.
    Back to the 40's with Labour - what a shambles.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,987
    felix said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    I tried to make the observation as neutral as I could :).

    At this point, I'm just going to play the cards as they are dealt. If Spain decides that it is in its national interest to repatriate British citizens, or elderly Brits desire to return home due to impoverishment, we'll take it from there. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof and all that.
    One hopes that both sides will be sensible. Spain may try to be silly by involving Gibraltar in the discussions [ mind you if you've been there, apart from the weather its a pretty naff dump!] while the UK has David Davis - although to be fair so far he's still sounding mostly sane. :)
    Not saying much then?
  • I really want Woolfe to be ineligible now

    @JamieRoss7:Coburn says he WILL stand for UKIP leader if Steven Woolfe can't, but says reports Woolfe is ineligible are probably "absolute nonsense".
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh

    I'd like to know what the actual fuck 'privatising the national debt' is supposed to mean.
    Isn't the national debt always privatised? In sense that individuals or pension schemes buy gilts.
    Indeed Smith sounds a bit clueless to me.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    John_M said:

    Moses_ said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    So you have been and are one of the most vociferous opponents on this site of the U.K people determining its own future and how it is governed .

    Now you openly admit you live in Spain ???You don't even live in this country???

    M'kay
    You'll find that some of the grumpiest Remainers on this site are domiciled abroad, with income denominated in Sterling. Hence the saltiness.
    Lol - fair point but I'm not so grumpy and will cope very well in the future living here. not the case for all 'expats' though. Many are elderly, frail and on quite limited incomes - if they are forced to return they'd be a huge burden on the UK health and benefit system.
    I tried to make the observation as neutral as I could :).

    At this point, I'm just going to play the cards as they are dealt. If Spain decides that it is in its national interest to repatriate British citizens, or elderly Brits desire to return home due to impoverishment, we'll take it from there. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof and all that.
    One hopes that both sides will be sensible. Spain may try to be silly by involving Gibraltar in the discussions [ mind you if you've been there, apart from the weather its a pretty naff dump!] while the UK has David Davis - although to be fair so far he's still sounding mostly sane. :)
    Not saying much then?
    One has to be kind - he went through a pretty odd phase a few years back. :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear

    @SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says of Theresa May that it "pained" him Labour didn't have the power "to smash her back on her heels"

    @paulwaugh: Looks like the 'smash her back on her heels' line re Theresa May was not in the speech text, Smith went off-script for that one.

    How long until he has to "clarify" that one...
This discussion has been closed.