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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for Pres

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Yesterday's ICM poll got the Conservatives on here over-excited but Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics states "if you want big changes, have a big defeat, not a big victory". The personal and political humiliation of a heavy defeat (and I won't use portside analogies) will have an impact just as the magnitude of the 1997 defeat affected Conservative politics.

    Morning. Point of order, it wasn't the 1997 defeat that forced the party to change, it was 2001 and then 2005 cemented the old style of Tory politics in the past. We lost in 2005 to a mass murdering liar. That was the moment people realised that policies don't really matter, it's all about presentation. Which is why Dave came along and won while the policy side was empty for a long time.
    It was losing twice in 2001 and 2005 on a rightwing platform which let Cameron win the leadership, had Hague or Howard won Cameron would never have become leader let alone PM. The same for Labour until Corbyn, like Ed Miliband, is defeated
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 33,627
    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    As predicted

    BREAKING: Japan announces economic stimulus package worth more than $265 billion

    Japan demonstrates better than anyone the failure of "stimulus" to do anything other than drive up the national debt.

    .
    There were a couple of charts that surprised me in Robert's excellent piece called the Discontented. One was a chart showing the GDP per capita growth since 2007 which showed Japan had grown significantly faster than the UK over that period

    I fear Japan are just a decade further down the curve than we are and that we may be in all too similar a position in 10 years time.
    I fear you may be right. Japan was the first to move to zero interest rates and large doses of QE to get things going, and they've been trying and failing for twenty years now. Despite all the free money there is no sign of any inflation; indeed deflation remains a continuing risk. If you look at the Japanese public debt figures they are beyond horrific and are now unbelievable: it is impossible to see any prospect of the rising debt being halted let alone put into reverse. It's only the fact that most of it is held internally that has stopped a collapse to date. All they can do is keep announcing larger and larger injections of 'new money' in the hope that it turns things round.

    It is hard to see this ending happily.
    It's one of those vicious circles. Japanese consumers won't spend their money (their savings rate is 3x the UK's). Therefore domestic demand remains low (not helped by their demographics), therefore companies don't want to invest, and see no need to raise wages. With historically low interest rates and no wage increases, Japanese folk feel they have to save heroic amounts of money for their retirement. So it goes.

    We have a huge advantage over the Japanese; Brits are feckless consumers under almost all circumstances. It's a mad world; thrift is bad, extravagance is good.

    Except that the people doing the saving for their retirement are doing so by lending to the government, and the Japanese government has already spent it all, and more. The only way out - if you can call it that - is for a big dose of inflation to reduce the debt burden on the government by reducing the value of the money the people have saved. I can't see that being popular. The alternative is that the whole pyramid collapses, which will be less popular.

    You are right that many UK consumers are running their finances like the Japanese government runs theirs. It is hard to see that ending happily, either.

    All choices nowadays seem to come down to bad, or worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,362
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I seem to be in a minority of one here but I quite like HRC. I don't have an issue with emails or anything like that and we've all said and done things we might regret or wish had been done differently. As a result, I've little concern with America under her stewardship. Trump, on the other hand, is madder than a box of frogs.

    On matters Halifax, Mrs Stodge is unimpressed with the voice of Wilma Flintstone but I did point out the original speaker has probably been dead 30 years or more. Nice to see a distant echo of my distant childhood.

    Yesterday's ICM poll got the Conservatives on here over-excited but Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics states "if you want big changes, have a big defeat, not a big victory". The personal and political humiliation of a heavy defeat (and I won't use portside analogies) will have an impact just as the magnitude of the 1997 defeat affected Conservative politics.

    One other thought for the morning - I do sense the tax cutting brigade think they have an ally at No.11 and I wonder if we will see a move away from the nuanced policies of the Coalition years which concentrated on raising personal allowances and instead Hammond's first Budget will go straight for cuts in tax rates across the board.

    We still have a mountain of debt and a large deficit but I suppose the fans of Laffer will scream that any tax cut will bring in more revenue and the wealthy are already paying so much (not surprising, they earn more so they pay more) they need a break. My local Government financial friend is very much of the view the 2017-18 round will be brutal and he's already planning for up to 15% reductions in Government funding.

    The email thing is the most concerning thing as far as I'm concerned, because if it wasn't her being sinister it was her bring an idiot, I don't accept 'we've all done things we might regret' as mitigating that stupidity either, as I have no issue holding those who seek public office, and in particular the most powerful office in the world, to a higher standard than I woukd myself.

    But she's obviously superior to trump despite bring the epitome of a phony politician.

    Re the deficit, did you not get the memo that no o e cares about it anymore? The public get too upset now at every cut and the government lacks the numbers to get through difficult choices, so they wo t even bother anymore.
    Re: deficit reduction after the 2010 GE

    "It will go down in history as probably the most costly macroeconomic policy mistake since the 1930s, causing a great deal of misery to many people’s lives." (Simon Wren-Lewis)

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/07/new-brexit-economics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095
    DavidL said:

    Toms said:

    DavidL said:

    Toms said:

    VPs can figure, importantly sometimes, sadly. In particular I'm thinking of Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson. These guys were rather important and came up to scratch.
    Tim Kaine too looks good to me.
    Have the Democrats cornered the honesty/sanity market?

    Sanity yes. Honesty?
    To be honest , maybe we should be a little flexible on this one. Gosh, being human is tricky.
    I still can't get past JP Orourke's comment that Hillary is wrong about everything but she is wrong within the normal parameters.

    Just sums it up perfectly for me. Sane America is not being given a choice here.
    Tough. If sane America wanted a sane alternative to Hillary then more should have voted in the Republican primaries for Jeb Bush, Rubio or Kasich
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is more like it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/dueling-army-officers-set-fire-to-mess-with-flares-during-father/

    "Army sources suggested the incident was being viewed as “high jinx rather than criminal damage”.

    One former officer told the Telegraph: “They wouldn’t be the first to fire flares at each other at the ‘Bovvy Hilton’. This sort of thing used to happen all the time in my day.”

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    stodge said:

    John_M said:


    It's one of those vicious circles. Japanese consumers won't spend their money (their savings rate is 3x the UK's). Therefore domestic demand remains low (not helped by their demographics), therefore companies don't want to invest, and see no need to raise wages. With historically low interest rates and no wage increases, Japanese folk feel they have to save heroic amounts of money for their retirement. So it goes.

    We have a huge advantage over the Japanese; Brits are feckless consumers under almost all circumstances. It's a mad world; thrift is bad, extravagance is good.

    The truth is most British people are feckless borrowers and in a low interest rate regime that's fine but many people (and I include myself in this) are basically running hard to stand still. For those with mortgages, however, the years of low inflation have been a golden opportunity to pay off debt - unfortunately, for others, low interest rates has probably led to over-commitment and were rates to rise again, there would be real problems.

    QE (our very own financial methadone) keeps the lid on everything for now - the British economy which always had a lot of inflation in it, is now functioning on zero interest rates, zero inflation and virtually zero growth.

    Apologies for this imgur link, but here's an informative graph. Disposable income by quintile since 1977, in constant prices.

    image
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,703

    alex. said:

    Betting related post, in a Times article, headlined

    'We won’t talk about trade until after Brexit, says US'

    Liam Fox says this

    Speaking in Washington, Dr Fox appeared to tone down his earlier optimistic rhetoric on trade, saying that “we cannot negotiate any new trade deals as long as we are part of the EU, which we will be for probably the next two years, with an exit in early 2019. We want to have discussions and to scope out any possible deals that we might want to do immediately after that.”

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-spurns-offer-of-trade-talks-wsk6gc5wx

    "might want to do immediately after that" ;)

    Might want to begin to negotiate immediately after that...
    Liam Fox isn't exactly inspiring confidence at the moment.

    However, Canada corrected Dr Fox after he suggested that “very fruitful” bilateral trade talks with Ottowa had begun. Chrystia Freeland, the international trade minister, said that the talks were “positive” but they were largely about Canada’s deal with the EU as a whole.
    You've been looking for a Fox failure since day one.

    I am impressed with him. He's barely been a fortnight in post and he's already held discussions with most of our allies on trade, launched other discussions with other countries and confirmed a number of new trade initiatives, including the opening of new offices in the US.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378
    MaxPB said:



    Morning. Point of order, it wasn't the 1997 defeat that forced the party to change, it was 2001 and then 2005 cemented the old style of Tory politics in the past. We lost in 2005 to a mass murdering liar. That was the moment people realised that policies don't really matter, it's all about presentation. Which is why Dave came along and won while the policy side was empty for a long time.

    Sorry, Max, you misunderstood. My point was the scale of the 1997 defeat suggested strongly the Conservatives would be out of power for a minimum of two terms and instead of looking for the next Prime Minister, they were in effect looking for a younger Kinnock-like character who would take the Party back to a challenging position.

    Had Blair won by only 50 in 1997 instead of 170, Hague would never have become leader. One of the more senior figures (Clarke, Howard, Portillo) would have taken over as the prospective next Conservative Prime Minister.

    The scale of the Labour defeat in 1983 led to Kinnock and ultimately the defeat of Militant. Had Labour only narrowly lost, would the impetus to challenge Hatton and those like him have been there ? The 1970 disaster completely revolutionised Liberal politics leading to the rise of community politics and the long recovery which ultimately led to the Coaltion forty years later.

    My argument is big defeats force change, small defeats don't. It's not cast iron but it has some validity.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,809
    edited July 2016
    The refrain on here is that Trump is absurd, idiotic, or straight forward mad. Although I'm no expert on US politics, my view is that he's none of those. He is a good politician, he knows what works with his voters. HRC is a poor politician, riding on the coat tails of connections and money.

    Incidentally, I don't regard being a good politician as a compliment, but it's easy to make the old mistake of thinking that people who disagree with you must be wrong and/or stupid (the default setting for the "elite").

    Trumps actual policies aren't extreme for the Republican party, it's only his manner and some of his pubic utterances that are designed to set up howls of rage from the that same elite. He's playing them like a violin.

    He might win, he probably won't, but he's the Bernie of the GOP. And the public current mood in many countries is for an "outsider".

    If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think.

    An actor won big not long ago. No one expected that either.

    Edit: "If he's elected, I suspect he'll be far more sensible than some think." I wish I could say the same about Jezza.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 33,627
    edited July 2016
    runnymede said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @DavidL:

    Right on queue, the Japanese government goes for stimulus with printed money. They may not be the first.

    last?
    Lol

    I remember when it started there were lots of semi-mocking articles in the intelligent press observing the desperation of the Japanese approach, with lots of 'interest' (from afar) in how it might turn out. Then the shit hit the fan in the west and we did precisely the same, when the alternative was financial collapse. Now after five plus years you hardly read about it anymore and you would almost think it was normal.

    If you could go back in time and make a prediction in 2005 that almost every developed economy would shortly be 'doing a Japan' for at least a decade and that Japan would still be at it after two decades, with barely any sign of exit anywhere (other than a fractional increase in rates in the US, now on hold again) people would have been incredulous.

    That we are not incredulous now is a comment on human behaviour.

    Politics is basically a competition for who gets to hold the ticking parcel next. And we wonder why there are so few sane contenders?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2016

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    I am not clear what this has to do with Brexit!

    More like an example of non-tarriff barriers being removed within the framework of EU USA discussions.

    I would suspect that it is a sofetning up so that US hormone fed beef can be exported here!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Bill Clinton doesn't look well.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543
    City airport gets the go ahead for expansion! Hopefully a sign of things to come for Heathrow. Decision made by Grayling, backed by Hammond and approved by Javid. Get in!
  • Well immigration is no longer the most important issue

    Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three.

    Britain Leaving the EU 65%

    Immigration & Asylum 47%

    The Economy 43%

    http://bit.ly/2al9CDk
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2016

    ICYMI

    Times/YouGov poll. Changes since last week. Con 40% (nc) Lab 28% (-1) UKIP 13% (+1) LD: 9% (nc)

    Loving how some Corbynistas are spinning a 12% deficit as good news, 'shows ICM is an outlier' that kinda stuff.

    As if a 12% lead wouldn't see Labour get smashed like the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidon

    Into the valley of death rode the 600 230
  • Who would make the best PM.

    Labour 2015 Voters: Corbyn 39% May 29%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279

    Well immigration is no longer the most important issue

    Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three.

    Britain Leaving the EU 65%

    Immigration & Asylum 47%

    The Economy 43%

    http://bit.ly/2al9CDk

    Where's AV? *innocent face*
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 33,627
    edited July 2016
    Moses_ said:

    ICYMI

    Times/YouGov poll. Changes since last week. Con 40% (nc) Lab 28% (-1) UKIP 13% (+1) LD: 9% (nc)

    Loving how some Corbynistas are spinning a 12% deficit as good news, 'shows ICM is an outlier' that kinda stuff.

    As if a 12% lead wouldn't see Labour get smashed like the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidon

    Into the valley of death rod the 600 230
    No-one stands a chance against death rod!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    MaxPB said:

    City airport gets the go ahead for expansion! Hopefully a sign of things to come for Heathrow. Decision made by Grayling, backed by Hammond and approved by Javid. Get in!

    I hear the government are planning a new Heathrow runway going straight over the top of John McDonnell's constituency home!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Yowser

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members

    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,385
    edited July 2016
    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279
    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,399

    I wonder whatever happened to Howard from the Halifax adverts?

    Got dumped from the adverts during the credit crisis, then left Halifax a few years ago.

    Now sure what he does these days
    I once hid in a communications room with a few other cynical IT types, to avoid a meet and greet session with Howard, where we were meant to bask in his reflected glory.
  • Just for shits'n'giggles

    Sample size 155

    Scotland sub-sample

    SNP 53%
    Con 23%
    Lab 11%
    UKIP 6%
    Lib Dems 3%
  • RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
    Yup, only way is down, now that George Osborne's stewardship of the economy is over.

    Within a few months there'll be riots in the streets demanding Theresa May makes Osborne Chancellor again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
    Yup, only way is down, now that George Osborne's stewardship of the economy is over.

    Within a few months there'll be riots in the streets demanding Theresa May makes Osborne Chancellor again.
    Supreme Chancellor? ;)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378

    Just for shits'n'giggles

    Sample size 155

    Scotland sub-sample

    SNP 53%
    Con 23%
    Lab 11%
    UKIP 6%
    Lib Dems 3%

    How will you be celebrating the anniversary of Cannae next Tuesday ? A re-enactment across the Yorkshire Moors perhaps from the local Second Punic War Re-Enactment Society (of which presumably you are leader or do you just get to be Hannibal ?

  • YouGov best PM ratings of the overs 65s

    May 76% Corbyn 7%
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,703
    This is probably the best guide I've seen yet as to what our new trade strategy should be:

    http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/priorities-for-the-new-department-for-international-trade-post-brexit/
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour 3rd among pensioners again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,905

    Well immigration is no longer the most important issue

    Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three.

    Britain Leaving the EU 65%

    Immigration & Asylum 47%

    The Economy 43%

    http://bit.ly/2al9CDk

    All three are intricately linked though?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,703

    Well immigration is no longer the most important issue

    Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three.

    Britain Leaving the EU 65%

    Immigration & Asylum 47%

    The Economy 43%

    http://bit.ly/2al9CDk

    No-one Cares About Europe.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    GDP figures are going to get buried, then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,453

    Just for shits'n'giggles

    Sample size 155

    Scotland sub-sample

    SNP 53%
    Con 23%
    Lab 11%
    UKIP 6%
    Lib Dems 3%

    11% !
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2016

    Liar liar, pants on fire....

    Stephen Kinnock has been accused of hiding his daughter’s private education during his selection process for his seat. In 2014 Kinnock told Wales Online that “it is highly misleading to say that our daughter attended a private school”. Except Johanna Kinnock did attend a private school from 2013 to 2015, the prestigious £29,000-a-year Atlantic College in the Vale of Glamorgan.

    http://order-order.com/2016/07/27/242524/

    The fact they wouldn't have selected him if he had told the truth is rather pathetic.

    This is not really unusual for Labour. Think Abbot, Blair even Harman

    They all do it. Spout the benefits of their crap education system while sneakily sending their own offspring to the other side of London to a decent Skool.

    I don't care if they do its their money they just should be up front an honest about it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,385
    Joe Grice of the ONS said:

    Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect. Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,905
    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    That's nice. :)

  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    PlatoSaid said:
    "politicians should form a progressive alliance"

    amazing insight.
  • stodge said:

    Just for shits'n'giggles

    Sample size 155

    Scotland sub-sample

    SNP 53%
    Con 23%
    Lab 11%
    UKIP 6%
    Lib Dems 3%

    How will you be celebrating the anniversary of Cannae next Tuesday ? A re-enactment across the Yorkshire Moors perhaps from the local Second Punic War Re-Enactment Society (of which presumably you are leader or do you just get to be Hannibal ?

    I shall be in Disneyworld Florida enjoying the weather (!).

    I normally don't celebrate minor battles, the most important and impressive battle to be fought on August the 2nd is the Battle of Chaeronea.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,439
    Mr. Chestnut, UKIP second?

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members

    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members

    Members pay between £5 and £60 a month to join one of three tiers of membership, receiving benefits including priority booking and discounts for events. - Needless to say, the Guardian would benefit more if those 50k were new readers buying the paper, rather than signing up for freebies and discounts.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Mr. Chestnut, UKIP second?

    Yes.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Moses_ said:

    Liar liar, pants on fire....

    Stephen Kinnock has been accused of hiding his daughter’s private education during his selection process for his seat. In 2014 Kinnock told Wales Online that “it is highly misleading to say that our daughter attended a private school”. Except Johanna Kinnock did attend a private school from 2013 to 2015, the prestigious £29,000-a-year Atlantic College in the Vale of Glamorgan.

    http://order-order.com/2016/07/27/242524/

    The fact they wouldn't have selected him if he had told the truth is rather pathetic.

    This is not really unusual for Labour. Think Abbot, Blair even Harman

    They all do it. Spout the benefits of their crap education system while sneakily sending their own offspring to the other side of London to a decent Skool.

    I don't care if they do its their money they just should be up front an honest about it.
    .. they don't spout the benefits of state education because in large part its crap.... what they do do is run down private education because they think its unfair that some kids get a better education. Labour want everyone to have shite education, except of course for their own kids.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,104

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hillary is not just an ex-First Lady, she has had a significant political career in her own right as Senator and Secretary of State. She will be an excellent President.

    I think it is a bit premature to say that she will be an excellent President but there is little doubt that she is the most obviously qualified for the role (in terms of prior experience) since Hoover. But that experience comes at a price and in Hillary's case that is a wagon train of baggage.
    Trouble is, this is a time when no one is interested in hearing from experts. I hope not, but I fear she is going to lose.
    On reflection George HW Bush comes pretty close. VP for 8 years, head of CIA, ambassador, congressman, a long and distinguished career before being President.

    What do you think Hillary is an "expert" in? She is certainly more of a technocrat than Trump. I think that ultimately could be an advantage if she can persuade people that makes her the safer choice.
    Johnson too had huge experience, mostly in Congress but right up to Senate majority leader.
    and interestingly, he got stuff done. he knew how to pull the levers and do across the aisle deals.
    Yes, Johnson was an outstanding president on the domestic front but this tends to be overlooked now due to Vietnam and the credit for Civil Rights goes elsewhere. That's not to denigrate the campaigners who fought for it (often literally), but had Johnson not been prepared to lead the political fight - never mind had he, as a good Southern Democrat, opposed it - the legislation would never have passed (wherein lies a fascinating counterfactual).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2016
    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.

    I was chatting to an old farmer patient yesterday still working at age 81 ("I would rather wear out than rust out" he said to me a few years back).

    The wheat harvest is going to be really poor because of the cold wet weather this year. On the other hand he has done well on his lambs exported to France due to the devaluation of Sterling.

    He voted Brexit because of democratic deficit, but forecasting gloom for British farming as a result.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378


    I shall be in Disneyworld Florida enjoying the weather (!).

    I normally don't celebrate minor battles, the most important and impressive battle to be fought on August the 2nd is the Battle of Chaeronea.

    Mrs Stodge and I are considering Florida for our winter break. You can be assured Disneyworld won't be on the list. We like the look of Fort Lauderdale for a few days followed by a short cruise on one of the big Royal Caribbean ships followed by a few more days in Fort Lauderdale or Miami before heading home.

    I'd rather do Las Vegas or Palm Springs again but Mrs Stodge has vetoed that.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 92,251
    edited July 2016
    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,905
    edited July 2016
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    Au contraire. Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it! :smiley:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,104
    HYUFD said:

    Hillary is not just an ex-First Lady, she has had a significant political career in her own right as Senator and Secretary of State. She will be an excellent President.

    Did she actually achieve much in either job? Both were achieved one way or another through the usual American route of money and networks. Sure, she had to win the NY primary but she's always had the machine behind her which has given her a massive advantage (though not massive enough vs Obama).

    She may be tolerably passable, she may be awful. In fact, there's more chance that she'll go down as part of the first husband and wife pairing to both be impeached as president than that she'll be 'an excellent president'.
    Politics is always about negotiation and networking, and particularly so in the USA where the Constitution deliberatly sets up the Executive, Legislative and Judicial arms of government as restraints on each other, even before the division of responsibilities between Federal and State governments. Clinton knows the ropes, while Trump is a blowhard who will soon find that he lacks the skills needed to network support.

    As Bertrand Russell wrote in 1933 on the rise of the Nazis: "The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt."
    True, although that's one reason that Trump doesn't particularly scare me, in that he'd probably find himself up against a congressional brick wall throughout. His foreign policy, on the other hand, would be a red line. But still, I see little in Hillary beyond a machine politician. Were she a man, she would be utterly unremarkable.
    If she was a man she would be Richard Nixon. He also rose on the back of a far more charismatic president, Dwight Eisenhower, just as she rose on the back of Bill. Both were capable machine politicians but neither natural campaigners and if Hillary does win the presidency it will be, like Nixon; on her second attempt both previously being thwarted by a younger, more appealing candidate. Bill made a good speech for her last night as he always does but Hillary needs to make here own case for her candidacy on Thursday, that is the key moment of the week as Trump's speech was last week. The rest of the convention is just the warm up act
    Agreed. Also like Nixon, if she does win, it'll be due in no small part due to divisions in the other party.
  • RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
    Yup, only way is down, now that George Osborne's stewardship of the economy is over.

    Within a few months there'll be riots in the streets demanding Theresa May makes Osborne Chancellor again.
    Fighting the fight for Osborne to the bitter end. A hopeless fight.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,439
    Mr. StClare, three levels?

    The Super, the Gorgeous and the Lovely?

    Diversity Embracer, Humanity Lover, Social Justice Warrior?

    Mr. Chestnut, cheers.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited July 2016
    http://www.lifezette.com/faithzette/isis-kills-christians-for-being-christian/

    ISIS Kills Christians for Being Christian
    This is a religious war by Islamic extremists, whether we like it or not
    by Fr. Gerry Murray | Updated 26 Jul 2016 at 8:09 PM


    The true nature of ISIS’ war against the West was made plain at the parish church of Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray near Rouen, France, on Tuesday....

    "Fr. Hamel’s vicious murder was a direct attack upon Catholicism, which the murderers see as the principal enemy. Western nations are called crusaders because ISIS views them as agents of Christianity. ISIS wants to subdue and eliminate all non-Muslim countries as it pursues the goal of a global caliphate, a Muslim supra-state that would replace the existing nations of the world.

    A Catholic priest embodies the soul of European culture. Murdering a priest is symbolic of the intention to kill the entire Christian West. Muslim expansionist warfare has historically been directed at conquering the Christian nations of Europe. ISIS is carrying out that warfare today — and the past few weeks have shown that they have agents of death all over Europe

    Fr. Hamel is a true martyr. He died because of "odium fidei" (hatred of the faith), the classic description of martyrdom. His murder demonstrates, if this were not already clear, the evil present in the jihadist vision of religion.

    The nations of the free world must vigorously resist the jihadist enterprise until it is completely neutralized. This warfare carried out in defense of the lives and freedom of the peoples of Europe and America is a solemn duty of our governments. It is a just war....

    The [Catholic] catechism also praises the service of those who wage this just war when it says: "Those who are sworn to serve their country in the armed forces are servants of the security and freedom of nations. If they carry out their duty honorably, they truly contribute to the common good of the nation and the maintenance of peace."

    Fr. Hamel has gone to his eternal reward — and his example of fidelity right up to the end should inspire us to act with firm purpose to prevent further such barbaric outrages. Requiescat in pace.

    Rev. Gerald E. Murray, J.C.D., is pastor of Holy Family Church in New York.


    Don't think he and his flock will be voting for Hilary somehow!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,117

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    UMP > EPP > Commission.

    Could be worse.
  • stodge said:


    I shall be in Disneyworld Florida enjoying the weather (!).

    I normally don't celebrate minor battles, the most important and impressive battle to be fought on August the 2nd is the Battle of Chaeronea.

    Mrs Stodge and I are considering Florida for our winter break. You can be assured Disneyworld won't be on the list. We like the look of Fort Lauderdale for a few days followed by a short cruise on one of the big Royal Caribbean ships followed by a few more days in Fort Lauderdale or Miami before heading home.

    I'd rather do Las Vegas or Palm Springs again but Mrs Stodge has vetoed that.

    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543
    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Q2 GDP +0.6% Ag -1.0, Prod +2.1 (!), Const -0.4 Serv. +0.5.

    Production number is astonishing. More than the previous nine quarters combined.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,759

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
    Yup, only way is down, now that George Osborne's stewardship of the economy is over.

    Within a few months there'll be riots in the streets demanding Theresa May makes Osborne Chancellor again.
    Given how her people were apparently briefing on how powerful May tore George a new one when she sacked him (and I presume it was her people since she mostly receive praise for doing it), that seems improbable, dare I say it, even if there were riots demanding he be reappointed!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,439
    Mr. Betting, nothing new, Mr. Eagles still thinks Caesar's better than Hannibal. He makes a habit of advocating hopeless arguments :p
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,703

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Peak GDP? :D
    Yup, only way is down, now that George Osborne's stewardship of the economy is over.

    Within a few months there'll be riots in the streets demanding Theresa May makes Osborne Chancellor again.
    Fighting the fight for Osborne to the bitter end. A hopeless fight.
    Who?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,117

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.

    I was chatting to an old farmer patient yesterday still working at age 81 ("I would rather wear out than rust out" he said to me a few years back).

    The wheat harvest is going to be really poor because of the cold wet weather this year. On the other hand he has done well on his lambs exported to France due to the devaluation of Sterling.

    He voted Brexit because of democratic deficit, but forecasting gloom for British farming as a result.
    Trust me, farmers complain whatever the weather. If it's good for wheat, it may not be good for a winter planting. Or for maize, or beet, etc etc
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,905

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    When the time comes Merkel will tell Juncker and this other person I've never heard of, whats going to happen.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    UMP > EPP > Commission.

    Could be worse.
    It doesn't matter, the commission are being sidelined, the Council has already chosen a Belgian diplomat to lead the talks. This is Juncker desperately playing catch up to try and keep his job.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    I note YouGov are directly weighting to the 48-52 referendum result. I'm not sure this is wise, given that the referendum engaged a lot of voters who may prove to be one-offs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,759
    GIN1138 said:

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    When the time comes Merkel will tell Juncker and this other person I've never heard of, whats going to happen.
    Germany can set the direction of Europe but the others can put up roadblocks, they are not without influence even if Germany clearly calls teh shots.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,217

    Harsh but fair from Ian Dunt

    Owen Smith is a lightweight and no opposition leader

    He resembles an actor who has been turned down for a Halifax ad

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/owen-smith-is-a-lightweight-and-no-opposition-leader-hhd2dmmf3

    On this occasion I don't think it really matters - this vote is primarily a vote for Corbyn or a vote for anyone who isn't Corbyn.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,840

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,439
    Mr. Price, plus, the referendum cut across party lines in a rather complicated way.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Yowser
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/27/guardian-losses-members
    Guardian's losses hit £69m but it gains more than 50,000 paying members

    "The Guardian retains cash and investments of £765m, down from £838.3m last year, and its stake in Ascential was worth £206m in April following the writedown."

    I remember when annual losses in the operating business was £50m a year and they promised to cut that back. Last year they lost £69m. This cash mountain is falling quickly. I wonder when they will end printing.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,104
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Yesterday's ICM poll got the Conservatives on here over-excited but Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics states "if you want big changes, have a big defeat, not a big victory". The personal and political humiliation of a heavy defeat (and I won't use portside analogies) will have an impact just as the magnitude of the 1997 defeat affected Conservative politics.

    Morning. Point of order, it wasn't the 1997 defeat that forced the party to change, it was 2001 and then 2005 cemented the old style of Tory politics in the past. We lost in 2005 to a mass murdering liar. That was the moment people realised that policies don't really matter, it's all about presentation. Which is why Dave came along and won while the policy side was empty for a long time.
    It was losing twice in 2001 and 2005 on a rightwing platform which let Cameron win the leadership, had Hague or Howard won Cameron would never have become leader let alone PM. The same for Labour until Corbyn, like Ed Miliband, is defeated
    Though Hague got this from Day One. His problem was that he simply wasn't strong enough to challenge Blair on the centre ground at the time and had he continued with the preemptive modernisation project he began, the Tories would have been smashed in the centre because he'd have been a second-rate version of Blair, and would also have crumbled on the right as they wouldn't have supported what he was putting forward. Hence what ultimately turned into a very defensive campaign in 2001.

    What Hague did do as leader, which was of lasting benefit, was to reform the Conservatives' internal structures and make them fit for the 21st century rather than the 1950s.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 10,063
    Amazingly whats good for farming is German supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl falling over each other to show the British provenance of their products, whilst the likes of British companies such as Sainsbury's are more interested in shipping in produce from across Europe to save pennies on the British sourced alternative. Because quarterly profit statement.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,543

    Amazingly whats good for farming is German supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl falling over each other to show the British provenance of their products, whilst the likes of British companies such as Sainsbury's are more interested in shipping in produce from across Europe to save pennies on the British sourced alternative. Because quarterly profit statement.

    To be fair to Sainsbury's I think they tend to source from British producers, it is one of the reasons they didn't get caught up in the horse meat scandal. M&S and Tesco have the most diverse supply chains I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    It's the zero good idea how to monetarize which is quite incredible. They spotted before most that online was where it was going, but bugger all idea how to exploit it.

    Be interesting to know if like yahoo & Twitter they also don't have the level analytics on their users, compared to like of Google and Facebook who can predict when users go for their daily shit.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    tlg86 said:

    GDP up 0.6% in Q2

    Construction down 0.4%, agriculture down 1.0%.

    I was chatting to an old farmer patient yesterday still working at age 81 ("I would rather wear out than rust out" he said to me a few years back).

    The wheat harvest is going to be really poor because of the cold wet weather this year. On the other hand he has done well on his lambs exported to France due to the devaluation of Sterling.

    He voted Brexit because of democratic deficit, but forecasting gloom for British farming as a result.
    Trust me, farmers complain whatever the weather. If it's good for wheat, it may not be good for a winter planting. Or for maize, or beet, etc etc
    Depending on their mix, farmers round here are alternately salivating/shitting themselves regarding a future UK-oriented subsidy scheme. My local farm aren't bothered either way - they sell pretty much everything locally to non-supermarket outlets.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,703

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    Interesting choice. He was Commissioner for Internal Market and Services for years, and knows a lot about financial services, banking union and digital markets.

    Trouble is: he's French, and EPP. Which means (a) he'll probably be very tough on the UK and (b) his sympathies will be very federalist.

    I can see why Juncker would like him.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    felix said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Amazing what's possible post-Brexit. The great national constipation is being purged.
    It's true we're gonna be crapped on for the next few years.
    I don't know what you mean by "we", I've never even visited Spain.
    Oh dear - if you think the damage will be limited to Europe you're in for a nasty shock - but it wasfunny to see you referring to constipation. Here in Spain almost all problems can be borne with 325 sunny days and prices even now 30% less than the UK.
    I hear the Sahara is even sunnier and cheaper. Check it out.
  • Amazingly whats good for farming is German supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl falling over each other to show the British provenance of their products, whilst the likes of British companies such as Sainsbury's are more interested in shipping in produce from across Europe to save pennies on the British sourced alternative. Because quarterly profit statement.

    I was told at one of my local Aldis, one reason why they are so cheap (cheaper than the main supermarkets crappy value brands), despite having quality in line with Waitrose/Marks and Spencer. Its a privately owned company, there are no shareholders to pay tribute to. Mr Aldi makes 3% margin on his sales. Most of that is reinvested in the business.

    The plc supermarkets have to pay ever larger tribute to shareholders. Typically PLCs operate on margins of 25-40%.

    Another reason is that much of their supply chain is in house. So no mark up to pay on things they "buy" from their suppliers, just the cost.


    PLCs are being slowly strangled by the greed of their directors and shareholders.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    Fatest ....

    Pep Guardiola: Man City boss bans overweight players from training
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36901810
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    MaxPB said:

    AFP: Juncker names France's Michel Barnier to lead Brexit talks: official

    UMP > EPP > Commission.

    Could be worse.
    It doesn't matter, the commission are being sidelined, the Council has already chosen a Belgian diplomat to lead the talks. This is Juncker desperately playing catch up to try and keep his job.
    Barnier is a self-important clown. But his influence will indeed be minimal,


    'I worry very much about Mr Barnier. I met Mr Barnier when he was a Minister. He came to see us at the Treasury. He came down the corridor and I was watching him. I am a great fan of art and I was rather impressed that he stopped to look at every painting. I thought this is a man with whom I share a common interest-until I realised he was actually looking at his reflection in the glass on every painting, and adjusting his hair or his toupee.

    This to me is a man whom we should treat with a very long spoon. I hope the Minister will take due care in working with Mr Barnier because we have been forewarned that this man intends to seek even more powers than those he announced today. He said he wants to return to the issue of censoring rating agencies. I sincerely hope that the Government and the Opposition would have no part in endorsing such an activity'


    https://next.ft.com/content/1de4c055-3081-3c9b-a125-085be4f2c6e5
  • Now this is interesting

    @JolyonMaugham: The Government has responded in writing on Article 50. But were I to publish it I would be in contempt of court.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoTMaAkW8AAlZPE.jpg
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MaxPB said:

    City airport gets the go ahead for expansion! Hopefully a sign of things to come for Heathrow. Decision made by Grayling, backed by Hammond and approved by Javid. Get in!

    Do you happen to know if they are still going to shut down Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279

    Now this is interesting

    @JolyonMaugham: The Government has responded in writing on Article 50. But were I to publish it I would be in contempt of court.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoTMaAkW8AAlZPE.jpg

    For the non legal wizards here, what does this mean/imply?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,378


    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.

    We were in Vegas last Christmas and it's amazing how much you can do without going near a casino (I'm assuming that's your definition of "enjoying"). To be fair, I relieved Mr Wynn of $400 on his blackjack table on Christmas Eve which helped pay for a slap up scoff and a trip on the High Roller (their equivalent of the Eye)..

  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    ONS

    'Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect. Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses.'

    How surprising - especially when the Governor of the Bank of England was saying the opposite.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Amazingly whats good for farming is German supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl falling over each other to show the British provenance of their products, whilst the likes of British companies such as Sainsbury's are more interested in shipping in produce from across Europe to save pennies on the British sourced alternative. Because quarterly profit statement.

    I was told at one of my local Aldis, one reason why they are so cheap (cheaper than the main supermarkets crappy value brands), despite having quality in line with Waitrose/Marks and Spencer. Its a privately owned company, there are no shareholders to pay tribute to. Mr Aldi makes 3% margin on his sales. Most of that is reinvested in the business.

    The plc supermarkets have to pay ever larger tribute to shareholders. Typically PLCs operate on margins of 25-40%.

    Another reason is that much of their supply chain is in house. So no mark up to pay on things they "buy" from their suppliers, just the cost.


    PLCs are being slowly strangled by the greed of their directors and shareholders.

    Aldi sells far fewer products - about 5% of Tesco's range for example. It's a simpler business model with a simpler supply chain.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    I note YouGov are directly weighting to the 48-52 referendum result. I'm not sure this is wise, given that the referendum engaged a lot of voters who may prove to be one-offs.

    I imagine it depends on progress with Brexit.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,530
    MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    Besides which they only report opinion poll findings that they themselves commission, leaving their target audience none the wiser that Labour is up to 16% behind in the polls unless they tap in to another news source.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    Now this is interesting

    @JolyonMaugham: The Government has responded in writing on Article 50. But were I to publish it I would be in contempt of court.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoTMaAkW8AAlZPE.jpg

    For the non legal wizards here, what does this mean/imply?
    She knows what the government has said, but there is a confidentiality clause that forbids her from disseminating it.
  • RobD said:

    Now this is interesting

    @JolyonMaugham: The Government has responded in writing on Article 50. But were I to publish it I would be in contempt of court.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoTMaAkW8AAlZPE.jpg

    For the non legal wizards here, what does this mean/imply?
    If I read it correctly, the government has a plan for implementing Article 50, but we're not allowed to know/discuss it, but those legal parties involved the court case can know, but can't publicly discuss/share it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,703

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Yesterday's ICM poll got the Conservatives on here over-excited but Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics states "if you want big changes, have a big defeat, not a big victory". The personal and political humiliation of a heavy defeat (and I won't use portside analogies) will have an impact just as the magnitude of the 1997 defeat affected Conservative politics.

    Morning. Point of order, it wasn't the 1997 defeat that forced the party to change, it was 2001 and then 2005 cemented the old style of Tory politics in the past. We lost in 2005 to a mass murdering liar. That was the moment people realised that policies don't really matter, it's all about presentation. Which is why Dave came along and won while the policy side was empty for a long time.
    It was losing twice in 2001 and 2005 on a rightwing platform which let Cameron win the leadership, had Hague or Howard won Cameron would never have become leader let alone PM. The same for Labour until Corbyn, like Ed Miliband, is defeated
    Though Hague got this from Day One. His problem was that he simply wasn't strong enough to challenge Blair on the centre ground at the time and had he continued with the preemptive modernisation project he began, the Tories would have been smashed in the centre because he'd have been a second-rate version of Blair, and would also have crumbled on the right as they wouldn't have supported what he was putting forward. Hence what ultimately turned into a very defensive campaign in 2001.

    What Hague did do as leader, which was of lasting benefit, was to reform the Conservatives' internal structures and make them fit for the 21st century rather than the 1950s.
    History now, but if Howard hadn't had the image problem he did in 1997 he would have made a good 1st term opposition leader, with Hague as deputy, followed by Hague taking over as leader in his own right post 2001.

    Not dissimilar to how he ended up incubating Osborne and Cameron, in fact.
  • stodge said:


    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.

    We were in Vegas last Christmas and it's amazing how much you can do without going near a casino (I'm assuming that's your definition of "enjoying"). To be fair, I relieved Mr Wynn of $400 on his blackjack table on Christmas Eve which helped pay for a slap up scoff and a trip on the High Roller (their equivalent of the Eye)..

    Going to Vegas and not spending time in a casino is just wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    edited July 2016
    Tescos misstep was going from food to trying sell everything to everybody & then Amazon came along and buggered that idea.

    I did have to chuckle when they vox popped Amazon drones & this young lady said it revolutionary being able to buy something & get it in a couple of hours. See has obviously never heard of physical shops on insta-twatter machine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279

    RobD said:

    Now this is interesting

    @JolyonMaugham: The Government has responded in writing on Article 50. But were I to publish it I would be in contempt of court.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoTMaAkW8AAlZPE.jpg

    For the non legal wizards here, what does this mean/imply?
    If I read it correctly, the government has a plan for implementing Article 50, but we're not allowed to know/discuss it, but those legal parties involved the court case can know, but can't publicly discuss/share it.
    Is their plan to tell the Council we are invoking Article 50?

    Ooops, I probably shouldn't have said that... :D
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,138
    John_M said:

    Amazingly whats good for farming is German supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl falling over each other to show the British provenance of their products, whilst the likes of British companies such as Sainsbury's are more interested in shipping in produce from across Europe to save pennies on the British sourced alternative. Because quarterly profit statement.

    I was told at one of my local Aldis, one reason why they are so cheap (cheaper than the main supermarkets crappy value brands), despite having quality in line with Waitrose/Marks and Spencer. Its a privately owned company, there are no shareholders to pay tribute to. Mr Aldi makes 3% margin on his sales. Most of that is reinvested in the business.

    The plc supermarkets have to pay ever larger tribute to shareholders. Typically PLCs operate on margins of 25-40%.

    Another reason is that much of their supply chain is in house. So no mark up to pay on things they "buy" from their suppliers, just the cost.


    PLCs are being slowly strangled by the greed of their directors and shareholders.

    Aldi sells far fewer products - about 5% of Tesco's range for example. It's a simpler business model with a simpler supply chain.
    Against that the shareholders are often big commercial pension providers.
  • MaxPB said:

    https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2016/07/27/GMG_Group_&_Company_Accounts_2016.pdf

    Full results from The Guardian. Summary - fucked.

    Revenue down, digital revenue down, subscriber growth is poor and overall they have no strategy to properly monetise the audience they have cultivated (young people and socialists).

    Highlights.

    Operating costs increased(!) from £257.3m to £278.2m, while revenue fell from £217.5m to £209.5m, a truly lefty business plan, let's spend our way out of trouble!

    This time last year they had cash and equivalents of £841.9m, this year that figure stands at £771.3m, they have also written down their stake in Ascential from £319m to £206.2m.

    Another couple of years like this and the model becomes unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised if they try and flog themselves to the NYTimes.

    Besides which they only report opinion poll findings that they themselves commission, leaving their target audience none the wiser that Labour is up to 16% behind in the polls unless they tap in to another news source.
    I'm fairly certain they covered the ICM poll yesterday
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    stodge said:


    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.

    We were in Vegas last Christmas and it's amazing how much you can do without going near a casino (I'm assuming that's your definition of "enjoying"). To be fair, I relieved Mr Wynn of $400 on his blackjack table on Christmas Eve which helped pay for a slap up scoff and a trip on the High Roller (their equivalent of the Eye)..

    Going to Vegas and not spending time in a casino is just wrong.
    My daughter would agree with you. My son definitely would not. I must try to look into which one I brought up right, and why...

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,623

    stodge said:


    I shall be in Disneyworld Florida enjoying the weather (!).

    I normally don't celebrate minor battles, the most important and impressive battle to be fought on August the 2nd is the Battle of Chaeronea.

    Mrs Stodge and I are considering Florida for our winter break. You can be assured Disneyworld won't be on the list. We like the look of Fort Lauderdale for a few days followed by a short cruise on one of the big Royal Caribbean ships followed by a few more days in Fort Lauderdale or Miami before heading home.

    I'd rather do Las Vegas or Palm Springs again but Mrs Stodge has vetoed that.

    I really wanted to do Las Vegas again, alas I have children and my parents with me, I don't think my mother could cope with me enjoying Las Vegas.

    We're doing 5 days in Florida, then a few days in New York, then fly back to the UK, then head to Dubai.

    I really need this holiday.
    Dubai in August? Brave choice!

    Enjoy!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,104

    ICYMI

    Times/YouGov poll. Changes since last week. Con 40% (nc) Lab 28% (-1) UKIP 13% (+1) LD: 9% (nc)

    Loving how some Corbynistas are spinning a 12% deficit as good news, 'shows ICM is an outlier' that kinda stuff.

    As if a 12% lead wouldn't see Labour get smashed like the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidon

    This is a 12% lead in mid-term (albeit during a PM-change honeymoon). What it would be after four weeks of Corbyn leading Labour during a general election campaign is another matter.
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