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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM blow for Corbyn as he tries to hang on: LAB now 16% beh

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    We don't have accession to be PM lists do we?

    That's actually a plot point that gets me about american shows, where someone 25th in line of succession must take over for some reason (there's a new show out next year on that very premise) and everyone is so insistent this person must do it, dem's der rules, no matter that in america they won't necessarily ever have been elected, prepared for responsibility and so on.
    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    I did not understand a single word of that linked document. I don't suppose you could idiot proof summarise it.
    The government sold £2.5bn worth of 0.125% interest rate index linked paper for £5.1bn. The real terms interest rate is therefore -1.3%.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    MontyHall said:
    Corbyn and McD really do not care about winning anything do they, its about taking control and securing it for the left of the party ad infinitum no matter what the election results.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. D, I was thinking that.

    Borrow £5 trillion, pay off the whole debt, sling the remainder into long-term investments, and collect interest for the privilege of being 'lent' money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    That's our company pension scheme deficit up yet again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    We don't have accession to be PM lists do we?

    That's actually a plot point that gets me about american shows, where someone 25th in line of succession must take over for some reason (there's a new show out next year on that very premise) and everyone is so insistent this person must do it, dem's der rules, no matter that in america they won't necessarily ever have been elected, prepared for responsibility and so on.
    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    I did not understand a single word of that linked document. I don't suppose you could idiot proof summarise it.
    The economy is still in one hell of a mess, and no one knows the way out, whatever they might claim.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
  • Seeing the news today, liberal do gooders have a lot to account for.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    We don't have accession to be PM lists do we?

    That's actually a plot point that gets me about american shows, where someone 25th in line of succession must take over for some reason (there's a new show out next year on that very premise) and everyone is so insistent this person must do it, dem's der rules, no matter that in america they won't necessarily ever have been elected, prepared for responsibility and so on.
    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    I did not understand a single word of that linked document. I don't suppose you could idiot proof summarise it.
    The economy is still in one hell of a mess, and no one knows the way out, whatever they might claim.
    Yes, that's a pretty accurate summary.
  • Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 32m32 minutes ago
    I should add I don't really believe the ICM poll. There is no way Labour will get as much as 27 per cent.

    I agree with Phil. The real number i would expect to be 25% or lower. We know that Labour have declined in Scotland and Wales since 2015, their alienation of the working class vote through backing REMAIN is yet to fully play out.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed :D

    Are we believing opinion polls again?
    We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
    True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
    Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
    It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
    I belong to no political party and only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections.
    Noted. Local by elections are a very bad indicator of future election performance. Annual local elections are much more reliable.
    I agree with that but if there was a significant switch under way I would expect to see some sign of it in a batch of 10 -12 by elections.
    You can expect what you like, don't make it so. A Ramsgate Parish Council by election tells us nothing about the future. Shut up Jeremy.
    I am referring to County/District council by elections covered here every week! Parish/Community Council elections are meaningless.
    If low-turnout council elections bore any relation to wider public sentiment then we would currently have a Lib Dem government.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    Wikipedia says:

    "The Speaker is one of the highest-ranking officials in the United Kingdom. By an Order in Council issued in 1919, the Speaker ranks in the order of precedence above all non-royal individuals except the Prime Minister, the Lord Chancellor, and the Lord President of the Council.

    In England and Wales, he also ranks below the two archbishops of the Church of England, in Scotland, he also ranks below the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, and in Northern Ireland, he also ranks below the Church of Ireland and Roman Catholic archbishops of Ireland, and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    That's real yield not nominal yield. I.e. if inflation is 2%, and the interest rate on the bond is 1.5%, that would have a negative real yield.

    Of course, if the next 100 years are an analog of the 1800s (see: http://www.thstailwinds.com/economics-101/), then buying 50 year gilts at a 0.5% nominal yield might actually be a very smart investment. If, on the other hand, the better analog is the UK post 1945, you will have lost a lot of money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
    I'm sure there has been at least 3 since then.

    There is no way that the QE debt is not simply get written off at some convenient point. The problem is in an environment like this how do you keep politicians away from the honey pot?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Fire in the air and hope for a lucky ricochet? We should probably stick to the old ethnic folkways of two-in-the-chest-one-in-the-head.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed :D

    Are we believing opinion polls again?
    We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
    True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
    Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
    It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
    I belong to no political party and only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections.
    Noted. Local by elections are a very bad indicator of future election performance. Annual local elections are much more reliable.
    I agree with that but if there was a significant switch under way I would expect to see some sign of it in a batch of 10 -12 by elections.
    You can expect what you like, don't make it so. A Ramsgate Parish Council by election tells us nothing about the future. Shut up Jeremy.
    I am referring to County/District council by elections covered here every week! Parish/Community Council elections are meaningless.
    If low-turnout council elections bore any relation to wider public sentiment then we would currently have a Lib Dem government.
    To hear some extremists, that's what we had under Cameron!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    Wikipedia says:

    "The Speaker is one of the highest-ranking officials in the United Kingdom. By an Order in Council issued in 1919, the Speaker ranks in the order of precedence above all non-royal individuals except the Prime Minister, the Lord Chancellor, and the Lord President of the Council.

    In England and Wales, he also ranks below the two archbishops of the Church of England, in Scotland, he also ranks below the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, and in Northern Ireland, he also ranks below the Church of Ireland and Roman Catholic archbishops of Ireland, and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church.
    That isn't the line of succession to the PM though.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    kle4 said:

    Worth remembering when using the Roundhead and Cavalier analogy that the Parliamentary forces were not seeking to abolish the monarchy when they started - a small portion of it killed Charles I when his intransigence in not admitting defeat kept causing problems, and they essentially had no option other than to go Republican, and even then the victors proposed a restoration under a Cromwellian monarchy and then adopted a pseudo-monarchy, on the basis that it was the most suitable option available. Most of the parliamentary opposition were still monarchists.

    If Cromwell had lived 5-10 more years, with more time for the system to bed in and a successor to emerge who could appeal to the disparate forces in the realm the way Richard Cromwell could not (no base in the army), we might be Republican now (or Cromwell would have been well established enough to ensure his son could take over with fewer problems).

    Out of 3 successful popular revolts in western europe, Cromwell and Washington never accepted the crown after their revolutions, Napoleon did.
    Modesty in power is an english virtue.

    But yes if Cromwell had lived longer, Britain would probably have the same form of government as the USA.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Fire in the air and hope for a lucky ricochet. We should probably stick to the old ethnic folkways of two-in-the-chest-one-in-the-head.
    Brachial nerve! Have you not seen "Copycat" with Sigourney Weaver and Holly Hunter?!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
    My point exactly. The government pay the BoE the coupon interest rate on their gilt holdings, the BoE funnels that back to the Treasury via the APF. Is it really debt if no net interest is ever going to be paid? While I'm sure the government will never destroy the debt, I wouldn't be surprised if a future government decided to reclassify Bank held debt as non-interest bearing and therefore not part of the official national debt. Even with the current net negative interest rate bonds being sold, the government will still be required to pay a coupon rate to a creditor, its just that the 50 years worth of coupon interest plus the redemption is lower than the amount paid today. With debt held by the Bank they get the bloody coupon interest back as well!
  • John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    But fifty years on the principle sum is small change due to inflation.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Worth remembering when using the Roundhead and Cavalier analogy that the Parliamentary forces were not seeking to abolish the monarchy when they started - a small portion of it killed Charles I when his intransigence in not admitting defeat kept causing problems, and they essentially had no option other than to go Republican, and even then the victors proposed a restoration under a Cromwellian monarchy and then adopted a pseudo-monarchy, on the basis that it was the most suitable option available. Most of the parliamentary opposition were still monarchists.

    If Cromwell had lived 5-10 more years, with more time for the system to bed in and a successor to emerge who could appeal to the disparate forces in the realm the way Richard Cromwell could not (no base in the army), we might be Republican now (or Cromwell would have been well established enough to ensure his son could take over with fewer problems).

    Out of 3 successful popular revolts in western europe, Cromwell and Washington never accepted the crown after their revolutions, Napoleon did.
    Modesty in power is an english virtue.

    But yes if Cromwell had lived longer, Britain would probably have the same form of government as the USA.
    Would they even still be part OF the same government?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    Wikipedia says:

    "The Speaker is one of the highest-ranking officials in the United Kingdom. By an Order in Council issued in 1919, the Speaker ranks in the order of precedence above all non-royal individuals except the Prime Minister, the Lord Chancellor, and the Lord President of the Council.

    In England and Wales, he also ranks below the two archbishops of the Church of England, in Scotland, he also ranks below the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, and in Northern Ireland, he also ranks below the Church of Ireland and Roman Catholic archbishops of Ireland, and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church.
    Yes, but the order of precedence is nothing to do with succession to become PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Worth remembering when using the Roundhead and Cavalier analogy that the Parliamentary forces were not seeking to abolish the monarchy when they started - a small portion of it killed Charles I when his intransigence in not admitting defeat kept causing problems, and they essentially had no option other than to go Republican, and even then the victors proposed a restoration under a Cromwellian monarchy and then adopted a pseudo-monarchy, on the basis that it was the most suitable option available. Most of the parliamentary opposition were still monarchists.

    If Cromwell had lived 5-10 more years, with more time for the system to bed in and a successor to emerge who could appeal to the disparate forces in the realm the way Richard Cromwell could not (no base in the army), we might be Republican now (or Cromwell would have been well established enough to ensure his son could take over with fewer problems).

    Out of 3 successful popular revolts in western europe, Cromwell and Washington never accepted the crown after their revolutions, Napoleon did.

    Modesty in power is an english virtue.
    The English Civil War was not a popular revolt. He was also still called His Highness and was invested like a monarch (though the americans treat their handover of power like a coronation in some ways). I really should do more reading on Napoleon though, it's a fascinating distinction that he did take the crown (and deposited his relatives on the thrones of other places) despite the revolution he arose from being far more republican minded than the English Civil War had ever intended to be.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Fire in the air and hope for a lucky ricochet. We should probably stick to the old ethnic folkways of two-in-the-chest-one-in-the-head.
    Brachial nerve! Have you not seen "Copycat" with Sigourney Weaver and Holly Hunter?!
    You'll be suggesting we shoot the guns out of their hands next :).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    Too risky.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    That's real yield not nominal yield. I.e. if inflation is 2%, and the interest rate on the bond is 1.5%, that would have a negative real yield.

    Of course, if the next 100 years are an analog of the 1800s (see: http://www.thstailwinds.com/economics-101/), then buying 50 year gilts at a 0.5% nominal yield might actually be a very smart investment. If, on the other hand, the better analog is the UK post 1945, you will have lost a lot of money.
    How does this work in practice?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,286
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Not according to Speaker Bercow, third in accession to be PM.
    Wikipedia says:

    "The Speaker is one of the highest-ranking officials in the United Kingdom. By an Order in Council issued in 1919, the Speaker ranks in the order of precedence above all non-royal individuals except the Prime Minister, the Lord Chancellor, and the Lord President of the Council.

    In England and Wales, he also ranks below the two archbishops of the Church of England, in Scotland, he also ranks below the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, and in Northern Ireland, he also ranks below the Church of Ireland and Roman Catholic archbishops of Ireland, and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church.
    That isn't the line of succession to the PM though.
    There is no line of succession to the Prime Minister: the order of precedence is entirely different.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's not even in English.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    You ever fired a gun? You ever fired a gun in a stress situation? You ever thought about why a person on the side of the angels might need to fire a gun? Don't be an ass - Clint Eastwood's movies not real life.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed :D

    Are we believing opinion polls again?
    We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
    True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
    Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
    It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
    I belong to no political party and only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections.
    Noted. Local by elections are a very bad indicator of future election performance. Annual local elections are much more reliable.
    I agree with that but if there was a significant switch under way I would expect to see some sign of it in a batch of 10 -12 by elections.
    You can expect what you like, don't make it so. A Ramsgate Parish Council by election tells us nothing about the future. Shut up Jeremy.
    I am referring to County/District council by elections covered here every week! Parish/Community Council elections are meaningless.
    If low-turnout council elections bore any relation to wider public sentiment then we would currently have a Lib Dem government.
    What a ludicrous statement . The council election results show the Lib Dems in 3rd place behind the Conservatives with Labour in a narrow 1st place lead . They do not foretell a Lib Dem government .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
    I'm sure there has been at least 3 since then.

    There is no way that the QE debt is not simply get written off at some convenient point. The problem is in an environment like this how do you keep politicians away from the honey pot?
    Oh, Labour's "People's QE" was exactly that. Japan is highly likely to go down that route.

    If the US economy slows, I can see Donald Trump seeing the virtues of printing money to spend.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited July 2016
    Normandy murders.

    I posted at lunchtime that the authorities seemed particularly concerned by the possibility of the attack and killing of the priest being filmed.

    They were right to worry. Those held during the attack say the killers recorded the events.

    The potency of this should not be underestimated.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kle4 said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    Too risky.
    Possibly, depends on the situation. The point I was making is shooting is only particularly deadly if you aim for vital organs. Law enforcement around the world regularly shoot to incapacitate.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639

    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 32m32 minutes ago
    I should add I don't really believe the ICM poll. There is no way Labour will get as much as 27 per cent.

    I agree with Phil. The real number i would expect to be 25% or lower. We know that Labour have declined in Scotland and Wales since 2015, their alienation of the working class vote through backing REMAIN is yet to fully play out.
    Lots of the working-class vote was already alienated and voted Tory/Ukip. Some of the results in their held seats in 2015 were quite poor. Thinking intuitively it's very likely that Ukip and working-class Tories were overwhelmingly LEAVE, so I wonder what the working-class Labour REMAIN/LEAVE vote really looked like.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    This is a very good point:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 39m39 minutes ago
    / @Paul1Singh Also, by "coup" they mean annual leadership election that Corbyn has advocated for 35 years.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Worth remembering when using the Roundhead and Cavalier analogy that the Parliamentary forces were not seeking to abolish the monarchy when they started - a small portion of it killed Charles I when his intransigence in not admitting defeat kept causing problems, and they essentially had no option other than to go Republican, and even then the victors proposed a restoration under a Cromwellian monarchy and then adopted a pseudo-monarchy, on the basis that it was the most suitable option available. Most of the parliamentary opposition were still monarchists.

    If Cromwell had lived 5-10 more years, with more time for the system to bed in and a successor to emerge who could appeal to the disparate forces in the realm the way Richard Cromwell could not (no base in the army), we might be Republican now (or Cromwell would have been well established enough to ensure his son could take over with fewer problems).

    Out of 3 successful popular revolts in western europe, Cromwell and Washington never accepted the crown after their revolutions, Napoleon did.
    Modesty in power is an english virtue.

    But yes if Cromwell had lived longer, Britain would probably have the same form of government as the USA.
    The difference was that the US Federation came on top of existing State structures that were stable and kept functioning despite it taking ten years of argument to work what the federal constitution should be. Britain was a unitary state. The monarchy or the republic was the whole shebang. The US situation was more like the EU, but let's not mention that...
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    You'd think wrong. As as already been said you aim for the centre of the largest visible mass, because you need all the help you can get.

    With very few exceptions nobody gets the range time or ammunition to become really proficient even when their is no risk of anyone firing back
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Tories fighting over Referendum, Cameron steps down. Period of unsavoury scramble and back biting to move into No 10. May does little but waits for Boris, Gove, Leadsom and Crabb to Fox things up then is anointed as PM.

    In the mean time, Corbyn manages to celebrate a parish council win, and trail new PM by 16 points. The guy is an absolute genius.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
    I'm sure there has been at least 3 since then.

    There is no way that the QE debt is not simply get written off at some convenient point. The problem is in an environment like this how do you keep politicians away from the honey pot?
    Once the currency is devalued, the the UK would only be able to borrow in US dollars not sterling.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
    I'm sure there has been at least 3 since then.

    There is no way that the QE debt is not simply get written off at some convenient point. The problem is in an environment like this how do you keep politicians away from the honey pot?
    Once the currency is devalued, the the UK would only be able to borrow in US dollars not sterling.
    Not so. It's like the old joke about the two guys about to be chased by a bear. Desirability is relative.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    kle4 said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    Too risky.
    Possibly, depends on the situation. The point I was making is shooting is only particularly deadly if you aim for vital organs. Law enforcement around the world regularly shoot to incapacitate.
    Got any examples of this regular occurrence?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    You'd think wrong. As as already been said you aim for the centre of the largest visible mass, because you need all the help you can get.

    With very few exceptions nobody gets the range time or ammunition to become really proficient even when their is no risk of anyone firing back
    I was quite clearly being somewhat sarcastic, the point is armed units are trained to incapacitate. You can shoot someone without them dying, which was what the post i was responding to was commenting on.

    Whether you'd want to risk it with an Islamic terrorist is another matter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    dr_spyn said:

    Tories fighting over Referendum, Cameron steps down. Period of unsavoury scramble and back biting to move into No 10. May does little but waits for Boris, Gove, Leadsom and Crabb to Fox things up then is anointed as PM.

    In the mean time, Corbyn manages to celebrate a parish council win, and trail new PM by 16 points. The guy is an absolute genius.

    He's transforming our paradigms, is that not enough for you?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Unless it is no longer their office ...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    You'd think wrong. As as already been said you aim for the centre of the largest visible mass, because you need all the help you can get.

    With very few exceptions nobody gets the range time or ammunition to become really proficient even when their is no risk of anyone firing back
    Except in a war.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    You'd think wrong. As as already been said you aim for the centre of the largest visible mass, because you need all the help you can get.

    With very few exceptions nobody gets the range time or ammunition to become really proficient even when their is no risk of anyone firing back
    I was quite clearly being somewhat sarcastic, the point is armed units are trained to incapacitate. You can shoot someone without them dying, which was what the post i was responding to was commenting on.

    Whether you'd want to risk it with an Islamic terrorist is another matter.
    No one in the world is taught to shoot to incapacitate. Unless you have any examples to the contary.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Unless it is no longer their office ...
    Yeah, as I've replied twice, I clearly wasn't aware of the full details.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    ''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''

    Welsh education is also a disaster area.

    Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.

    A lot of money has gone on structural things (e.g. dualling the HoTV road) but money doesn't solve the fundamental issues. It's a challenge for all governments - throwing money at a problem does not guarantee success.

    When you look at the job creation side of things, EU funding has been very poor value for money. The last figures I've seen were from 2014, and it was claimed (by a pro-EU source) that 29,800 jobs had been created, which is pitiful.
    What does change things? If you ranked the areas of the country from richest to poorest 40 years ago, would any have noticeably climbed or descended the rankings? How has that come about?
    Locally, Central Manchester has done well - but Greater Manchester has probably remained steadily in the bottom half. I'm looking for areas of county level and above that have improved.
    Its hard to find comparable figures that date back that far. Too many methodological changes.

    The best I can do for you is a comparison 1997-2014. Linkie here:

    http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_426841.pdf

    Check out figure 3 on page 10. Brief summary: with the exception of the SE, everywhere is going backwards compared to London. Wales is going backwards faster than most other regions.

    Thanks John_M - interesting. And a little depressing.
    There is also the usual problem when measuring per capita income.
    I don't think many people get 125K per year in Tower Hamlets.

    I prefer to use the medium average income, to see how many voters are actually rich or poor.
    Remember Canary Wharf is in Tower Hamlets, so that figure is far from impossible
    The U.Ks regional disparities per GDP tho! o.O

    Damn we need to fix that somehow. Worst by far in the E.U.
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    Y0kel said:

    Normandy murders.

    I posted at lunchtime that the authorities seemed particularly concerned by the possibility of the attack and killing of the priest being filmed.

    They were right to worry. Those held during the attack say the killers recorded the events.

    The potency of this should not be underestimated.

    Why is that? Because of Copycats?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    kle4 said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    Too risky.
    Possibly, depends on the situation. The point I was making is shooting is only particularly deadly if you aim for vital organs. Law enforcement around the world regularly shoot to incapacitate.
    Rubbish. Name one law enforcement agency that is trained to shoot for anything other than the torso.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    DavidL said:

    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    My God, is this place a hive of filthy republicans? Make yourself known, so I can add you to ze list.

    PB Roundhead and proud.

    Divine rights of Kings? You're having a laugh
    In principle, I'm a Tory roundhead too. But I would describe my republicanism as grumbly rather than furious. And I think the queen does a good job as head of state so in practice am in no mood to change anything at present. I'm of the opinion that we should be able to replace our monarch, but in practice, I don't want to do so.
    The next monarch may turn out to be equally effective. Or he may be terrible. If the latter, I will be of the opinion that he should be replaced.

    I think a significant chunk of the country's enthusiasm for the monarchy is for the monarch herself, personally, rather than the institution.
    One day, alas, we shall find out if that is so. I'm monarchist as, frankly, I don't think our constitutional system, with its archaic, flamboyant edge, has worked too badly, and has charm, it's stable.
    I would be a roundhead Tory were it not for the fact that I am unconvinced that a replacement system would work any better. So I remain marginally monarchist. The monarchy is a harmless anachronism. Should it cease to be harmless, I shall happily change my stance.
    I am an Elizabethan. Once she goes it just might be time for a rethink.
    Sunil addressing his loyal PB followers outside Tilbury Town railway station:

    "I know I have the body of a weak, feeble trainspotter; but I have the heart and stomach of a King!"

    :)
    and a king of England too!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Why did the police kill the Normandy killers? They do not appear to have been carrying guns and they were leaving the church, apparently without hostages. Why couldn't they do what the British police did in Woolwich and shot non-lethally to protect themselves from the terrorists' knives?

    Could they have been concerned about explosives?
    They could have been. That's what was said in Gibraltar. More likely, they have a shoot to kill policy.
    Id be interested to hear how you shoot to wound. Any ideas?
    Well, unless there are many terrorists in wheelchairs I think aiming for the legs might help.
    You'd think wrong. As as already been said you aim for the centre of the largest visible mass, because you need all the help you can get.

    With very few exceptions nobody gets the range time or ammunition to become really proficient even when their is no risk of anyone firing back
    I was quite clearly being somewhat sarcastic, the point is armed units are trained to incapacitate. You can shoot someone without them dying, which was what the post i was responding to was commenting on.

    Whether you'd want to risk it with an Islamic terrorist is another matter.
    No one in the world is taught to shoot to incapacitate. Unless you have any examples to the contary.
    You could ask Gerry Adams or Martin McGuiness about kneecapping.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    nunu said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    ''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''

    Welsh education is also a disaster area.

    Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.

    A lot of money has gone on structural things (e.g. dualling the HoTV road) but money doesn't solve the fundamental issues. It's a challenge for all governments - throwing money at a problem does not guarantee success.

    When you look at the job creation side of things, EU funding has been very poor value for money. The last figures I've seen were from 2014, and it was claimed (by a pro-EU source) that 29,800 jobs had been created, which is pitiful.
    What does change things? If you ranked the areas of the country from richest to poorest 40 years ago, would any have noticeably climbed or descended the rankings? How has that come about?
    Locally, Central Manchester has done well - but Greater Manchester has probably remained steadily in the bottom half. I'm looking for areas of county level and above that have improved.
    Its hard to find comparable figures that date back that far. Too many methodological changes.

    The best I can do for you is a comparison 1997-2014. Linkie here:

    http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_426841.pdf

    Check out figure 3 on page 10. Brief summary: with the exception of the SE, everywhere is going backwards compared to London. Wales is going backwards faster than most other regions.

    Thanks John_M - interesting. And a little depressing.
    There is also the usual problem when measuring per capita income.
    I don't think many people get 125K per year in Tower Hamlets.

    I prefer to use the medium average income, to see how many voters are actually rich or poor.
    Remember Canary Wharf is in Tower Hamlets, so that figure is far from impossible
    The U.Ks regional disparities per GDP tho! o.O

    Damn we need to fix that somehow. Worst by far in the E.U.
    We have, to be fair, found a way to make them not the worst in the EU...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's worth recalling that the Guardian once made monthly headlines out of its ICM polls. Now that it can't afford to commission them, it doesn't even bother to report polls by ICM. Not even when they have Labour a record 16% behind and that figure is reported in just about every other paper.

    The outcome is that many Corbyn cultists won't be aware of the scale of this shocker.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Lolpinion polls. Remind me how the EdM ministry is doing after leading the winning REMAIN campaign.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    nunu said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    ''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''

    Welsh education is also a disaster area.

    Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.

    A lot of money has gone on structural things (e.g. dualling the HoTV road) but money doesn't solve the fundamental issues. It's a challenge for all governments - throwing money at a problem does not guarantee success.

    When you look at the job creation side of things, EU funding has been very poor value for money. The last figures I've seen were from 2014, and it was claimed (by a pro-EU source) that 29,800 jobs had been created, which is pitiful.
    Its hard to find comparable figures that date back that far. Too many methodological changes.

    The best I can do for you is a comparison 1997-2014. Linkie here:

    http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_426841.pdf

    Check out figure 3 on page 10. Brief summary: with the exception of the SE, everywhere is going backwards compared to London. Wales is going backwards faster than most other regions.

    Thanks John_M - interesting. And a little depressing.
    There is also the usual problem when measuring per capita income.
    I don't think many people get 125K per year in Tower Hamlets.

    I prefer to use the medium average income, to see how many voters are actually rich or poor.
    Remember Canary Wharf is in Tower Hamlets, so that figure is far from impossible
    The U.Ks regional disparities per GDP tho! o.O

    Damn we need to fix that somehow. Worst by far in the E.U.
    It's slightly misleading. London is a phenomenon. Greater London's GDP is that of Sweden. It's probably the most productive metropolis in Europe. It's a huge magnet for people and investment - the rest of the country tends to suffer second order effects from that pull.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Seeing the news today, liberal do gooders have a lot to account for.

    Anyone who has followed the persecution of Christians in the Middle East and the attacks on Christian churches in Pakistan would not be at all surprised at the agonizing attack today.

    With all the talk of Islamophobia we have overlooked the fact that it is Christianity which is the most persecuted religion in the world (in parts of Africa, in the Middle East and in parts of the Asian sub-continent) and that its tormentors are Muslims of some variety or other. Not content with tormenting each other as part of their Sunni-Shia feud and attacking Jews they attack Christians as well.

    We have been warned by those who have survived such attacks. We have had the evidence before our eyes. There have been attempts on churches in Europe before - specifically in France last year when a woman was killed by a jihadist in a failed attack. We have ignored all the evidence preferring to pretend all sorts of deluded nonsense, anything other than accept that there is a very real murderous aggressive strain within the Islamic world which is spreading amongst sufficient numbers within Muslims living in the West such that we face a risk of ever more revolting, bloody and hard to prevent attacks.

    What will harm us even more than the attacks themselves is the self-delusion the authorities and others seem to prefer. It will harm us because if we do not see clearly the danger we cannot even begin to think clearly about how we can reduce it or even eliminate it let alone how we can protect ourselves from it. It is time - long past the time, frankly - to stop worrying about how people will react to what we say and do (*) and start speaking clearly about what is happening and why it is happening and who is doing it. We cannot even begin to formulate a solution to a problem if we will not even make the attempt to describe it properly - without evasive cant.

    (*) No-one wants a backlash but one there will be if evasive handwringing is the only response. There are times for moral clarity and when small children are shot at point blank range (Toulouse) or crushed to death (Nice) or young adults are murdered at a concert (Bataclan) or when they are out eating with their families (Paris) or policemen are murdered at point blank rang (Paris - January 2015) or murdered in front of their families (Paris - June 2016) or diners are slaughtered and their bodies desecrated (Dakha),when Pakistani worshippers are killed outside a church, when Iraqi worshippers are murdered during Christmas Mass, moral clarity - and not just sympathetic noise - is needed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's not even in English.
    However it is true that in the last poll before the Coup, Lab were level and now they are not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163

    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's worth recalling that the Guardian once made monthly headlines out of its ICM polls. Now that it can't afford to commission them, it doesn't even bother to report polls by ICM. Not even when they have Labour a record 16% behind and that figure is reported in just about every other paper.

    The outcome is that many Corbyn cultists won't be aware of the scale of this shocker.
    They won't care anyway.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's not even in English.
    However it is true that in the last poll before the Coup, Lab were level and now they are not.
    If I were at the bottom of a big, dark stinking cesspit, I'd be more concerned at how to get out of it than how I got there in the first place.

    Corbyn is utterly unelectable. Get used to it. What do you propose to do about it?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    edited July 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    Seeing the news today, liberal do gooders have a lot to account for.

    Anyone who has followed the persecution of Christians in the Middle East and the attacks on Christian churches in Pakistan would not be at all surprised at the agonizing attack today.

    With all the talk of Islamophobia we have overlooked the fact that it is Christianity which is the most persecuted religion in the world (in parts of Africa, in the Middle East and in parts of the Asian sub-continent) and that its tormentors are Muslims of some variety or other. Not content with tormenting each other as part of their Sunni-Shia feud and attacking Jews they attack Christians as well.

    We have been warned by those who have survived such attacks. We have had the evidence before our eyes. There have been attempts on churches in Europe before - specifically in France last year when a woman was killed by a jihadist in a failed attack. We have ignored all the evidence preferring to pretend all sorts of deluded nonsense, anything other than accept that there is a very real murderous aggressive strain within the Islamic world which is spreading amongst sufficient numbers within Muslims living in the West such that we face a risk of ever more revolting, bloody and hard to prevent attacks.

    What will harm us even more than the attacks themselves is the self-delusion the authorities and others seem to prefer. It will harm us because if we do not see clearly the danger we cannot even begin to think clearly about how we can reduce it or even eliminate it let alone how we can protect ourselves from it. It is time - long past the time, frankly - to stop worrying about how people will react to what we say and do (*) and start speaking clearly about what is happening and why it is happening and who is doing it. We cannot even begin to formulate a solution to a problem if we will not even make the attempt to describe it properly - without evasive cant.

    (*) No-one wants a backlash but one there will be if evasive handwringing is the only response. There are times for moral clarity and when small children are shot at point blank range (Toulouse) or crushed to death (Nice) or young adults are murdered at a concert (Bataclan) or when they are out eating with their families (Paris) or policemen are murdered at point blank rang (Paris - January 2015) or murdered in front of their families (Paris - June 2016) or diners are slaughtered and their bodies desecrated (Dakha),when Pakistani worshippers are killed outside a church, when Iraqi worshippers are murdered during Christmas Mass, moral clarity - and not just sympathetic noise - is needed.
    How do you deal with it when there are millions of Muslims and a few dozen terrorists? Might Christian Westerners have done something in the last fourteen years that led to the killings of Christians in Iraq?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Unless it is no longer their office ...
    Yeah, as I've replied twice, I clearly wasn't aware of the full details.
    [sigh] :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's not even in English.
    However it is true that in the last poll before the Coup, Lab were level and now they are not.
    Honeymoon period for May + period of Labour instability is a recipe for a poor poll score, it's true.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    But fifty years on the principle sum is small change due to inflation.
    Weak monetary policy meant inflation was over 25% pa in the mid 1970s.

    That is one way to reduce national debt in real terms - provided the government doesn't need to continue to borrow and pay 30% pa interest.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    MontyHall said:

    Y0kel said:

    Normandy murders.

    I posted at lunchtime that the authorities seemed particularly concerned by the possibility of the attack and killing of the priest being filmed.

    They were right to worry. Those held during the attack say the killers recorded the events.

    The potency of this should not be underestimated.

    Why is that? Because of Copycats?
    It will be circulated and used to radicalize and inspire others to commit similar atrocities. It will be used to celebrate what they have done. It will be used to terrify us.

    It is utterly vile. We are running out of words to describe the barbarity of these people. We are, I fear, beginning to see on the streets of Europe what we have previously only read about happening on the streets of Iraq and Syria and elsewhere where these monsters have operated.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's not even in English.
    However it is true that in the last poll before the Coup, Lab were level and now they are not.
    There have been a few developments in the Conservative Party since then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Oh FFS....Ernie the tagged terrorist, had tried to join ISIS in Syria, not Once as earlier been reported, but TWICE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC reports

    "Claims by Labour MP Seema Malhotra that her office was accessed without her permission do not amount to a possible breach of Commons rules, Speaker John Bercow has said.

    The ex-frontbencher had complained to Mr Bercow that aides to leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell gained "unauthorised entry".

    Mr Bercow said there was nothing to "justify regarding these events as a possible breach".

    Mr McDonnell has called for an apology."

    How stupid can you get? I mean, really? It's quite sad.
    Pretty disrespectful to go into someones office to snoop around without permission.
    Unless it is no longer their office ...
    Yeah, as I've replied twice, I clearly wasn't aware of the full details.
    [sigh] :lol:
    It's PB- comment first, apologise later :D
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Oh FFS....Ernie the tagged terrorist, had tried to join ISIS in Syria, not Once as earlier been reported, but TWICE.

    I always said we were stupid to try and stop these people going to Syria. Far better to let them go and try to get them with drones.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163

    dr_spyn said:

    This might be a clue to why ICM had Corbyn so far behind today.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/757981095405191168

    It's not even in English.
    However it is true that in the last poll before the Coup, Lab were level and now they are not.
    If I were at the bottom of a big, dark stinking cesspit, I'd be more concerned at how to get out of it than how I got there in the first place.

    Corbyn is utterly unelectable. Get used to it. What do you propose to do about it?
    Bet on the Tories?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    tlg86 said:

    Oh FFS....Ernie the tagged terrorist, had tried to join ISIS in Syria, not Once as earlier been reported, but TWICE.

    I always said we were stupid to try and stop these people going to Syria. Far better to let them go and try to get them with drones.
    Drones or the Kurds...they don't do messing about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    nunu said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    Cookie said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    ''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''

    Welsh education is also a disaster area.

    Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.

    A lot of money has gone on structural things (e.g. dualling the HoTV road) but money doesn't solve the fundamental issues. It's a challenge for all governments - throwing money at a problem does not guarantee success.

    When you look at the job creation side of things, EU funding has been very poor value for money. The last figures I've seen were from 2014, and it was claimed (by a pro-EU source) that 29,800 jobs had been created, which is pitiful.
    What does change things? If you ranked the areas of the country from richest to poorest 40 years ago, would any have noticeably climbed or descended the rankings? How has that come about?
    Locally, Central Manchester has done well - but Greater Manchester has probably remained steadily in the bottom half. I'm looking for areas of county level and above that have improved.
    Its hard to find comparable figures that date back that far. Too many methodological changes.

    The best I can do for you is a comparison 1997-2014. Linkie here:

    http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_426841.pdf

    Check out figure 3 on page 10. Brief summary: with the exception of the SE, everywhere is going backwards compared to London. Wales is going backwards faster than most other regions.

    Thanks John_M - interesting. And a little depressing.
    There is also the usual problem when measuring per capita income.
    I don't think many people get 125K per year in Tower Hamlets.

    I prefer to use the medium average income, to see how many voters are actually rich or poor.
    Remember Canary Wharf is in Tower Hamlets, so that figure is far from impossible
    The U.Ks regional disparities per GDP tho! o.O

    Damn we need to fix that somehow. Worst by far in the E.U.
    The problem now is the EU's brightest and best now all want to work in London, the capital is not just a magnet for talent from the regions
  • <
    tlg86 said:

    Oh FFS....Ernie the tagged terrorist, had tried to join ISIS in Syria, not Once as earlier been reported, but TWICE.

    I always said we were stupid to try and stop these people going to Syria. Far better to let them go and try to get them with drones.
    Had Eurpoe done what Australia do then this need not have happened.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    EPG said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Seeing the news today, liberal do gooders have a lot to account for.

    How do you deal with it when there are millions of Muslims and a few dozen terrorists? Might Christian Westerners have done something in the last fourteen years that led to the killings of Christians in Iraq?
    Blaming the victims I see. Are Muslims not moral agents? Do they bear no responsibility for what they do?

    What did Pakistani Christians do to justify attacks on them and their churches? Or Copts in Egypt? Or Christians in Nigeria or in Sudan?

    Do you think that Islamism started only 14 years ago? It has been around for decades and long before the second Iraq war. It is a peculiar form of European egocentricity that seems to believe even the actions of Islamist terrorists and the Islamic state and other Islamist organisations are the fault of Europeans, as if even when we are being attacked it can only really be about us, as if we have to be the centre of attention. Islamists are not children: they have a choice. And if they choose to do evil rather than good then I for one refuse to accept that it is my fault that they made a choice that others, including Muslims themselves, chose not to make. We do a disservice to all those Muslims who are not terrorists, who abhor what these people are doing, who choose good over evil by refusing to accept the moral agency of the bad guys.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Theresa May going down better than her predecessor in Scotland
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/757967489389228032
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    OK, the world has officially gone mad. The magic money tree is real.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/757964190300643328

    Whilst the interest rate is low, the principal sum still has to be paid back at maturity - or refinanced in the future at an interest rate much higher.
    Not if we don't need to roll the debt over.
    I think it's a fair bet that exactly none of the QE debt will ever need to be repaid by governments. That is the real reason markets are so sanguine about government debt-to-GDP levels.

    (And is why Hunchman's sovereign debt crisis of September 2015 never happened.)
    My point exactly. The government pay the BoE the coupon interest rate on their gilt holdings, the BoE funnels that back to the Treasury via the APF. Is it really debt if no net interest is ever going to be paid? While I'm sure the government will never destroy the debt, I wouldn't be surprised if a future government decided to reclassify Bank held debt as non-interest bearing and therefore not part of the official national debt. Even with the current net negative interest rate bonds being sold, the government will still be required to pay a coupon rate to a creditor, its just that the 50 years worth of coupon interest plus the redemption is lower than the amount paid today. With debt held by the Bank they get the bloody coupon interest back as well!
    I couldn't agree more :)

    As I wrote in Debt & Delusion: "A thought experiment: if you need not pay interest, and the
    likelihood of the lender demanding repayment is zero, is it really debt?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    HYUFD said:

    Theresa May going down better than her predecessor in Scotland
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/757967489389228032

    If they had a terrible opinion of Cameron that isn't such a great poll. Davidson's on the other hand...
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:



    The problem now is the EU's brightest and best now all want to work in London, the capital is not just a magnet for talent from the regions

    Thats not the problem. Its their not so brightest and best wanting to work as brickies and car washers that is the problem.

    We need to start seeing discrimination as a positive again. We would also be at far less risk of terrorism if we did.

    The funny thing is that the luvvy types who foam about discrimination in all its forms even ability - see grammar schools - are utterly ruthless and brutal discriminators when it comes to choosing actors for their plays and films - as anyone who has auditioned can testify.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited July 2016
    He [Adel K, 19, "known locally as Ernie"] started making contact with radicals on the internet after the Charlie Hebdo and kosher supermarket attacks in January last year.

    He came to the authorities’ attention when he tried to help an underage teenager from Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray join Isil.

    He twice attempted to go to Syria but was arrested once in Munich and then turned back by the Turkish authorities and sent to Geneva, in May 2015.

    The Swiss authorities charged him with “criminal association in connection with terrorism”. He was sent back to France and jailed for ten months.

    He was tagged when he came out of prison in March this year. The public prosecutor appealed unsuccessfully against his release.

    A French security source said he was in contact with Maxime Hauchard, a French jihadist identified as an Isil executioner.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/two-men-with-knifes-take-hostages-in-normandy-church/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    He [Adel K, 19, "known locally as Ernie"] started making contact with radicals on the internet after the Charlie Hebdo and kosher supermarket attacks in January last year.

    He came to the authorities’ attention when he tried to help an underage teenager from Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray join Isil.

    He twice attempted to go to Syria but was arrested once in Munich and then turned back by the Turkish authorities and sent to Geneva, in May 2015.

    The Swiss authorities charged him with “criminal association in connection with terrorism”. He was sent back to France and jailed for ten months.

    He was tagged when he came out of prison in March this year. The public prosecutor appealed unsuccessfully against his release.

    A French security source said he was in contact with Maxime Hauchard, a French jihadist identified as an Isil executioner.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/two-men-with-knifes-take-hostages-in-normandy-church/

    Jailed for ten months for trying to join an enemy force? Seems a bit lenient.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The IRA were roman catholics but we did not think all roman catholics were potential terrorists.

    However, religious sect is a risk factor when sifting out terrorists.

    Discuss.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    RobD said:

    He [Adel K, 19, "known locally as Ernie"] started making contact with radicals on the internet after the Charlie Hebdo and kosher supermarket attacks in January last year.

    He came to the authorities’ attention when he tried to help an underage teenager from Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray join Isil.

    He twice attempted to go to Syria but was arrested once in Munich and then turned back by the Turkish authorities and sent to Geneva, in May 2015.

    The Swiss authorities charged him with “criminal association in connection with terrorism”. He was sent back to France and jailed for ten months.

    He was tagged when he came out of prison in March this year. The public prosecutor appealed unsuccessfully against his release.

    A French security source said he was in contact with Maxime Hauchard, a French jihadist identified as an Isil executioner.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/two-men-with-knifes-take-hostages-in-normandy-church/
    Jailed for ten months for trying to join an enemy force? Seems a bit lenient.

    Yeap. 10 months and then a tag. From reading elsewhere, it is said prosecutors wanted more and definitely not released on tag, but the judge said it was ok.
  • PaganPagan Posts: 259
    EPG said:



    How do you deal with it when there are millions of Muslims and a few dozen terrorists? Might Christian Westerners have done something in the last fourteen years that led to the killings of Christians in Iraq?

    1) There are a more than a few dozen terrorists
    2) There is a an alarmingly large pool of sympathizer muslims embedded in the west. Before you ask for a source consider how many hundreds have travelled from europe to syria
    3) Why is it we are always told we shouldn't blame all muslims for terrorist atrocities yet you seem fine justifying the killing of iraqi christians because of what some other christians did

    You sir are part of the problem

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Theresa May going down better than her predecessor in Scotland
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/757967489389228032

    If they had a terrible opinion of Cameron that isn't such a great poll. Davidson's on the other hand...
    Or better still Davidson and May's combined
This discussion has been closed.