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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM blow for Corbyn as he tries to hang on: LAB now 16% behind at lowest level since 2009

In many ways the latest ICM poll is hardly surprising. The Tories have a new leader who is enjoying a honeymoon period while Labour is in all sorts of trouble with 80% of its MPs saying they have no confidence in their leader.

Read the full story here

Tissue_Price

Carnage beckons.

Pulpstar

The (Baxter) Electoral calculus POLLS TO SEAT part of the model worked well for 2015:

CON LAB LIB UKIP Green SNP Plaid N.Ire
Predicted 322 240 10 1 1 55 3 18
Seat Error +9 -8 -2 0 0 +1 0 0

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_15errors.html

Main source of error was the raw polling data.

Wanderer

Other striking thing about this poll is the 56% for centre-right + right.

TheScreamingEagles

Calm down, this is during the Theresa May honeymoon

SouthamObserver

Come on Theresa, pull the trigger and save Labour!

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/24/how-theresa-may-could-turn-out-to-be-the-labour-partys-very-unlikely-saviour/

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

I think we need to use Occam's razor here, rhe likelihood is that they said IS or ISIS and the French press are reporting it as Daesh because that's what they do.

This...as I stated previous thread. Just as the BBC insist on them being called the "So Called Islamic State", rather than Daesh, or IS, or ISIS...French politicians and media report them overwhelmingly as Daesh. So much so, I remember hearing a number of French media on BBC giving comment after Paris attack and the BBC had to keep butting in and saying "So Called Islamic State" after they have opinions on Daesh.

nunu

Tissue_Price said:

Carnage beckons.

Corbyn or bust.

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down, this is during the Theresa May honeymoon

Panic, this is during the Jeremy Corbyn nightmare.

TheWhiteRabbit

If you look at the 180th safest Labour seat, or thereabouts, would imply Labour losing Darlington, Scunthorpe and Hartlepool - but that can only be to UKIP. Or, if you want tot "trade" other seats, it means losing both Newport seats to the Conservatives. Paul Flynn would go from three jobs to none

John_M

Labour's poor showing in the polls is clear evidence of the electorate's traditional dislike of disunity in political parties.

It is entirely down to the shocking inability of elements of the PLP to respect the overwhelming democratic mandate granted to Jeremy only last year.

By being so divisive, disloyal and disrespectful of their own institutions they are undermining the social-democratic cause and drowning out Jeremy's message about a kinder, gentler and more inclusive politics.

TheScreamingEagles

If there is an early general election, I've already written a thread on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

TheWhiteRabbit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down, this is during the Theresa May honeymoon

Oh, that's okay then, the Tories "only" have an 8 point lead...

kle4

Polls being poor for Labour are not a blow against Corbyn - his whole case is predicated on assuming they are wrong or irrelevant.

Obviously to the extent any poll can be trusted it looks very bad for Labour, but I still think May will not want a GE any time soon, and in any case in the absence of a split (and I don't think there will be one) a few will come back to Labour if they fear the Tories winning. It's still bad for an opposition to be down so low, but as noted this is honeymood period stuff, and probably inflated with UKIP voters temporarily 'returning' to Con, who will abandon it again if a Brexit fudge is announced.

So it is bad, but not as apocalyptic as at first glance.

ThreeQuidder said:

MaxPB said:

From the telegraph live blog.

"The men shouted "Daesh" and cut the priest's throat before being "neutralised," police said.

Le Figaro newspaper reported that the priest died after his throat was cut.

The men’s motives are still unknown."

Right.

If that's true, then it surely isn't Daesh, as Daesh hate being called Daesh.

Or so it is stated.

Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.

Morris_Dancer

Numbers are capitalist lies. Corbyn is ahead in the hearts of the people.

TheWhiteRabbit

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written a thread on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Some of us haven't forgotten that one.

FrancisUrquhart

Public never like split parties.....is what McMao will claim. So stop this nonsense and back Jezza.

kle4

Don't forget pollsters, like the media, are actually just afraid of how awesome Corbyn would be as Prime Minister, and that's why they manipulate against him.

brokenwheel

Morris_Dancer said:

Numbers are capitalist lies. Corbyn is ahead in the hearts of the people.

This "poll" is clearly an MI5 fabrication.

logical_song

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Tissue_Price

TheWhiteRabbit said:

If you look at the 180th safest Labour seat, or thereabouts, would imply Labour losing Darlington, Scunthorpe and Hartlepool - but that can only be to UKIP. Or, if you want tot "trade" other seats, it means losing both Newport seats to the Conservatives.

The Tories won Darlington and Scunthorpe in 1983, and got within 3000 in Hartlepool. They'd win the first two in a landslide, but Hartlepool would be UKIP.

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written a thread on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

That's a mad one.

SimonStClare

It will still be a cake walk for Corbyn, his supporters ignore such polling frivolousness....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Wheel, obviously. At my dinner party last night I asked everyone if they voted Conservative, and none of them ever have.

TheScreamingEagles

During Gordon Brown's honeymoon, the Tories were 10 plus points behind the polls and Dave still went on to become PM.

So no need to ditch Jez.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Public never like split parties.....is what McMao will claim. So stop this nonsense and back Jezza.

If the brand of Labour is the most important thing - and to Corbyn and his opponents it appears to be - then he's probably right. Serial rebels like him and Corbyn didn't harm the brand, open rebellions by dozens do.

Still, some are already crawling back to make the best of it.

DavidL

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

Wulfrun_Phil

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

kle4

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

They wouldn't. But of course TSE is paraphrasing from that famous piece about Brown calling a snap GE.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written a thread on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Copyright issues?

John_M

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

What on earth makes you think the government need Labour support? They have a majority. They could either repeal directly, or simply use a VoNC and keep it on the books.

The FTPA was simply a coalition figleaf to reassure Clegg that Dave wouldn't throw him off the bus if he fancied it later.

kle4

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Getting it through the Lords? For all that many people do not like the FTPA, proposing to repeal it would clearly only be for partisan political gain, it would be easy for all the non-Tories in the Lords to block it.

ThreeQuidder

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

They wouldn't have to. The Tories have a majority in the Commons. The Lords won't reject an early election if they value their survival.

kle4

DavidL said:

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish.

It truly is a massive floor of support. It's easy to see why parties become complacent with that level of guaranteed support.

grabcocque

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

It only takes a simple maority to amend the FTPA. But May wouldn't even need to do that if she wanted a general election. Say you intend to go to the country. Call a dissolution vote, dare Labour to vote against it. If they do, they look weak and pathetic, then you either amend the bill (or deliberately lose a confidence vote in yourself that you caused).

More likely Labour's machismo means they would support the dissolution vote.

Where there's a will, etc.

John_M

kle4 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Getting it through the Lords? For all that many people do not like the FTPA, proposing to repeal it would clearly only be for partisan political gain, it would be easy for all the non-Tories in the Lords to block it.

I agree that the composition of the Lords is an issue. But that will have to be fixed in any event. If Mrs May wants to go to the country, she should. If the Lords block it, it's their lookout.

Richard_Nabavi

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS would make a better government than Blair and his team?". In the end I didn't have to make the decision, but I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.

I imagine a lot of traditional Labour supporters will reason in the same way about Labour today.

kle4

ThreeQuidder said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

They wouldn't have to. The Tories have a majority in the Commons. The Lords won't reject an early election if they value their survival.

'Tories to restructure Lords in punishment for preventing them making a partisan change to our electoral system'

Yes, that's a vote winner.

Blue_rog

All it needs now is for the Pope to declare Crusade

taffys

It just occurred to me that news of slaughter in a christian church might have a big impact in the US, where there are so many worshippers.

Trump's meme has been 'don;t let this happen here...'

John_M

The priest they killed was 86 years old. Fuck those guys.

kle4

Blue_rog said:

All it needs now is for the Pope to declare Crusade

Deus Vult!

Pulpstar

Next spring must be in the running, though I doubt it will be this autumn as May has said Art 50 won't be revoked.

When do the boundaries change btw ?

JonnyJimmy

kle4 said:

Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.

I think 'so called Islamic so called State' would work even better!

TheScreamingEagles

taffys said:

It just occurred to me that news of slaughter in a christian church might have a big impact in the US, where there are so many worshippers.

Trump's meme has been 'don;t let this happen here...'

You really need to study your American history if you think church massacres would be a new thing in America

wasd

kle4 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Getting it through the Lords? For all that many people do not like the FTPA, proposing to repeal it would clearly only be for partisan political gain, it would be easy for all the non-Tories in the Lords to block it.

Goad one of the minor parties into proposing it on one of their opposition days?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rog, unlikely. After the Hebdo attack, the fool in the Vatican said that if someone insulted his mother he'd punch them, or similar.

Incidentally, are you the other chap who lives nearish Morley? I seem to remember another PBer did and couldn't remember who. [No special reason for asking, just that half-remembering something irritates me].

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

It just occurred to me that news of slaughter in a christian church might have a big impact in the US, where there are so many worshippers.

Trump's meme has been 'don;t let this happen here...'

You really need to study your American history if you think church massacres would be a new thing in America

Does that matter to those that Trump is trying to appeal to....all these incidents play to the strength of "emotion led" pitch.

Scrapheap_as_was

Mid term blues... We're really on for 50%

GIN1138

Thursday 27th October (just before clocks "fall back") looks attractive for a snap election.

Go for it Tezza!

DanSmith

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2016_july_vote_poll-3.pdf

The only two age groups Labour are ahead in are 18-24 and 25-34. However, these are the two age groups with by far the worst certainty to vote, 39% and 49% respectively.

Cookie

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS would make a better government than Blair and his team?". In the end I didn't have to make the decision, but I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.

I imagine a lot of traditional Labour supporters will reason in the same way about Labour today.

I think we overestimate how much attention people pay. For vast numbers of people politics between elections is just background noise. Wit the way media are consumed nowadays, It's increasingly possible to go through life completely avoiding news if you're not interested in it.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Blue_rog said:

All it needs now is for the Pope to declare Crusade

He wont. End of.

But I wouldn't put it past the Lefebvrists who are very strong in France (there are more of them than mainstream Catholics in some places) and I suspect almost to a man they vote Fronte Nationale (assuming they dont regard Fronte Nationale as leftist pinko's

Cookie

JonnyJimmy said:

kle4 said:

Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.

I think 'so called Islamic so called State' would work even better!

What about if newsreders had to use finger-quotes? "Islamic" "State".

FrancisUrquhart

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36893807

A minute of erhh well round and round and rounds the houses we go before yeah probably was Jahadi terrorism.

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS would make a better government than Blair and his team?". In the end I didn't have to make the decision, but I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.

I imagine a lot of traditional Labour supporters will reason in the same way about Labour today.

Yeah, there is always a way for those inclined to persuade themselves, whether it is the long view or the blameless local candidate or simply to stop the other guys. But blimey, Labour are testing this to the very limits.

Not sure I could have voted for an IDS led Tory party.

grabcocque

Can we please agree on an appropriate diminutive form for Theresa please? And not "Tezza". NEVER TEZZA.

I voted Tess or Tessie.

FrancisUrquhart

Cookie said:

JonnyJimmy said:

kle4 said:

Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.

I think 'so called Islamic so called State' would work even better!

What about if newsreders had to use finger-quotes? "Islamic" "State".

What about hand gestures instead ? I can think of one or two appropriate ones.

SimonStClare

Blue_rog said:

All it needs now is for the Pope to declare Crusade

But there’s no latter-day Constantinople – Oh well, I suppose France & Bavaria will have to do

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS....I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.

You're kidding right? As we have all seen recently, IDS is a searingly insightful, relevant politician. As is David Davis.

GIN1138

grabcocque said:

Can we please agree on an appropriate diminutive form for Theresa please? And not "Tezza". NEVER TEZZA.

I voted Tess or Tessie.

Mother Theresa = The Blessed Margaret?

DavidL

Cookie said:

JonnyJimmy said:

kle4 said:

Personally I prefer 'so called Islamic State'. It makes clear its proper islamic and state credentials are not accepted by, say, us, but does not deny what they call themselves and that millions think they are both islamic and a state, which hopefully upsets the majority of muslims who don't support them.

I think 'so called Islamic so called State' would work even better!

What about if newsreders had to use finger-quotes? "Islamic" "State".

Does "bastards" not cover it?

grabcocque

wasd said:

kle4 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Getting it through the Lords? For all that many people do not like the FTPA, proposing to repeal it would clearly only be for partisan political gain, it would be easy for all the non-Tories in the Lords to block it.

Goad one of the minor parties into proposing it on one of their opposition days?

Then you ram it up their their shitter with the lubricated parliament acts horse cock in the autumn. No biggie. Then again, the noble lords would have no grounds on which to stand firm anyway. This is an electoral matter, the other place knows better than to tell commoners how and when to elect themselves.

kle4

grabcocque said:

Can we please agree on an appropriate diminutive form for Theresa please? And not "Tezza". NEVER TEZZA.

I voted Tess or Tessie.

T Shizzle?

DanSmith

It would destroy Labour if they tried to block an election taking place. Would mean every time they tried to take on the government, the Tories can just say "if you don't like it, lets have an election".

But then we should put nothing past Comrade Corbyn.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. StClare, wouldn't be the first crusade in France (still meaning to get a book on the Cathar Crusade at some point).

TheScreamingEagles

grabcocque said:

Can we please agree on an appropriate diminutive form for Theresa please? And not "Tezza". NEVER TEZZA.

I voted Tess or Tessie.

T-Bag.

T for Theresa, and Bag for the handbagging she gave Jez last week.

The past participle for that is T-Bagged

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written a thread on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Are Boris, Davis and Fox the "Princes"?

TOPPING

DanSmith said:

It would destroy Labour if they tried to block an election taking place. Would mean every time they tried to take on the government, the Tories can just say "if you don't like it, lets have an election".

But then we should put nothing past Comrade Corbyn.

Yes an opposition that refuses an election at any time has formally given up.

FrancisUrquhart

If it is Tessie...she has her own theme tune already written. The Boston Red Sox long time anthem is Tessie.

rottenborough

taffys said:

It just occurred to me that news of slaughter in a christian church might have a big impact in the US, where there are so many worshippers.

Trump's meme has been 'don;t let this happen here...'

Yep, I am sure he will be using this incident shortly.

logical_song

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Both of the following would require Labour support:
Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:

If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government".
This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.

If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

RochdalePioneers

My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.

I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...

Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.

So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.

Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.

Stark_Dawning

A snap election is a complete non-starter. The parliamentary shenanigans - changing the law, votes of no confidence or whatever - would just be too messy. Moreover, with UKIP, the SNP and the Tory hard-right pouncing, the campaign would be completely bogged down with splits and rancour concerning the post-Brexit settlement. May's honeymoon could soon evaporate in such circumstances. Better to bed down for a few years and let Boris, Fox and DD take the rap when it all falls apart amid disappointment and blame.

grabcocque

Pulpstar said:

Next spring must be in the running, though I doubt it will be this autumn as May has said Art 50 won't be revoked.

When do the boundaries change btw ?

New boundaries should be in force 31 Jan 2018, but it depends on how long the wrangling and back-and-forth with the commission takes.

FrancisUrquhart

Priest didn't have his throat slashed, they beheaded him.

Not getting the right stall at the Summer Fete clearly gets some people very angry.

DavidL

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS....I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.

You're kidding right? As we have all seen recently, IDS is a searingly insightful, relevant politician. As is David Davis.

This had passed me by: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/universal-credit-iain-duncan-smith-welfare-reform-benefit-cuts-dwp-work-and-pensions-theresa-may-a7148106.html

Universal Credit now delayed to 2022. 6 years and almost nothing achieved. That's IDS for you.

kle4

TOPPING said:

DanSmith said:

It would destroy Labour if they tried to block an election taking place. Would mean every time they tried to take on the government, the Tories can just say "if you don't like it, lets have an election".

But then we should put nothing past Comrade Corbyn.

Yes an opposition that refuses an election at any time has formally given up.

Did they not also just call for an election, on the grounds May needed a mandate as PM? Some people did obviously, they always do when a PM takes over mid-term.

John_M

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Both of the following would require Labour support:
Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:

If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government".
This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.

If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

The first clause only requires a simple majority.

theakes

How can you call an election? The 5 years rule, how do you conjure up a vote of no confidence. Then there has to be a 14 day cooling off period, to try for another government, etc

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:

Can we please agree on an appropriate diminutive form for Theresa please? And not "Tezza". NEVER TEZZA.

I voted Tess or Tessie.

T-Bag.

T for Theresa, and Bag for the handbagging she gave Jez last week.

The past participle for that is T-Bagged

I do not want an image of May Tea-bagging Corbyn... not that she could.

Paul_Bedfordshire

>Dromedary Posts: 51
>11:37AM edited 11:38AM
>>Paul_Bedfordshire said:
>>If I was in Church and someone tried to raid >>and desecrate the Blessed Sacrament I >>would do everything to stop them even if >>they killed me as a result.

>What if the only way to stop them was to kill >them?

What a silly thing do say. Did not Jesus Himself tell St Peter to put away his sword and not attack the High Priests guard who had come to arrest him.

Did St Thomas of Becket take up a sword against the Kings men who had come to kill him? (a story in itself which reverberates down the centuries as a warning to those who would attack a priest in church).

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

One of them is a friend of mine (who lives in Hackney, natch) who I saw at a mutual friends wedding at the weekend.

He asked what I thought about Corbyn, and I gave it to him straight between the eyes. To be fair to him, he did listen and concede I might have a point.

Whether it will stop him supporting him, or not, is another matter.

Dadge

grabcocque said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

It only takes a simple maority to amend the FTPA. But May wouldn't even need to do that if she wanted a general election. Say you intend to go to the country. Call a dissolution vote, dare Labour to vote against it. If they do, they look weak and pathetic, then you either amend the bill (or deliberately lose a confidence vote in yourself that you caused).

More likely Labour's machismo means they would support the dissolution vote.

Where there's a will, etc.

Yes, Labour would look ridiculous if they voted to keep a Tory govt in power, though I wouldn't put it past Corbyn to abstain since he seems to favour socialism by means other than through the ballot box.

TOPPING

As I have been away (still am..but the call of PB...) could someone pls summarise what TKMay's (or DD's or LF's) Brexit settlement is looking like.

grabcocque

"We don't know what the motives are of a muslim man going into a church and beheading a priest"

NO POSSIBLE WAY WE CAN GUESS.

Indigo

John_M said:

Labour's poor showing in the polls is clear evidence of the electorate's traditional dislike of disunity in political parties.

It is entirely down to the shocking inability of elements of the PLP to respect the overwhelming democratic mandate granted to Jeremy only last year.

By being so divisive, disloyal and disrespectful of their own institutions they are undermining the social-democratic cause and drowning out Jeremy's message about a kinder, gentler and more inclusive politics.

I think it's more likely to be the electorate's traditional dislike for parties being a bit crap, the disunity is kind of an optional extra

GIN1138

Stark_Dawning said:

A snap election is a complete non-starter. The parliamentary shenanigans - changing the law, votes of no confidence or whatever - would just be too messy. Moreover, with UKIP, the SNP and the Tory hard-right pouncing, the campaign would be completely bogged down with splits and rancour concerning the post-Brexit settlement. May's honeymoon could soon evaporate in such circumstances. Better to bed down for a few years and let Boris, Fox and DD take the rap when it all falls apart amid disappointment and blame.

Nothing is going to "fall apart".

We're going to Brexit and we're going to make a success of it (we'll keep the best of the single market access, without all the EU red tape and we'll have the world beating down our door to business with us through bespoke trade agreements. What's not to like?)

Get with the programe please!

grabcocque

TOPPING said:

As I have been away (still am..but the call of PB...) could someone pls summarise what TKMay's (or DD's or LF's) Brexit settlement is looking like.

John_M

Indigo said:

John_M said:

Labour's poor showing in the polls is clear evidence of the electorate's traditional dislike of disunity in political parties.

It is entirely down to the shocking inability of elements of the PLP to respect the overwhelming democratic mandate granted to Jeremy only last year.

By being so divisive, disloyal and disrespectful of their own institutions they are undermining the social-democratic cause and drowning out Jeremy's message about a kinder, gentler and more inclusive politics.

I think it's more likely to be the electorate's traditional dislike for parties being a bit crap, the disunity is kind of an optional extra

You failed to compliment me on my fantastic pastiche of Corbynite-style writing. Frankly, I'm hurt, lost, angry and triggered

PlatoSaid

Urgh

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/migrant-hacked-to-death-in-bloodbath-at-calais-jungle-camp-a3304491.html

GIN1138

TOPPING said:

As I have been away (still am..but the call of PB...) could someone pls summarise what TKMay's (or DD's or LF's) Brexit settlement is looking like.

They'll let us know when they put a manifesto before the country in October!

Theuniondivvie

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Blue_rog said:

All it needs now is for the Pope to declare Crusade

He wont. End of.

No shit Sherlock!

TOPPING

kle4 said:

TOPPING said:

DanSmith said:

It would destroy Labour if they tried to block an election taking place. Would mean every time they tried to take on the government, the Tories can just say "if you don't like it, lets have an election".

But then we should put nothing past Comrade Corbyn.

Yes an opposition that refuses an election at any time has formally given up.

Did they not also just call for an election, on the grounds May needed a mandate as PM? Some people did obviously, they always do when a PM takes over mid-term.

Exactly and that is how bonkers Lab is right now. I do feel for @SouthamObserver and @RochdalePioneers.

nunu

brokenwheel said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Numbers are capitalist lies. Corbyn is ahead in the hearts of the people.

This "poll" is clearly an MI5 fabrication.

Clearly they polled CCHQ. #toryplot

DavidL

grabcocque said:

TOPPING said:

As I have been away (still am..but the call of PB...) could someone pls summarise what TKMay's (or DD's or LF's) Brexit settlement is looking like.

A bit more fudge I think.

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

A snap election is a complete non-starter. The parliamentary shenanigans - changing the law, votes of no confidence or whatever - would just be too messy. Moreover, with UKIP, the SNP and the Tory hard-right pouncing, the campaign would be completely bogged down with splits and rancour concerning the post-Brexit settlement. May's honeymoon could soon evaporate in such circumstances. Better to bed down for a few years and let Boris, Fox and DD take the rap when it all falls apart amid disappointment and blame.

Apart from the bit about Boris, Fox and Davis, I think you have nailed this particular issue. Some people will get very excited by this poll and others, and there will be a temptation to try for a snap GE, but it's just not as simple as it seems, and fraight with difficulties.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

Next spring must be in the running, though I doubt it will be this autumn as May has said Art 50 won't be revoked.

When do the boundaries change btw ?

Pulpstar said:

Next spring must be in the running, though I doubt it will be this autumn as May has said Art 50 won't be revoked.

When do the boundaries change btw ?

There will not shortly be an election where the Tories increase their majority.

If May is to that she will, as you allude to, do so once the new deal is clear and preferably with the new boundaries in place.

Otherwise she will wait full term.

rottenborough

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?

As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.

In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS....I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.

You're kidding right? As we have all seen recently, IDS is a searingly insightful, relevant politician. As is David Davis.

This had passed me by: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/universal-credit-iain-duncan-smith-welfare-reform-benefit-cuts-dwp-work-and-pensions-theresa-may-a7148106.html

Universal Credit now delayed to 2022. 6 years and almost nothing achieved. That's IDS for you.

I doubt this reform will ever happen now. Quietly dropped in the next couple of years.

Wulfrun_Phil

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Both of the following would require Labour support:
Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:

If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government".
This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.

If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

The first wouldn't. With a working majority the Conservatives just have to support the vote of no confidence. Then over the next two weeks vote down all attempts to form a new government.

The only substantive effect of the FTPA is to give the opposition parties an additional two weeks in which to gear up for a snap general election.

FrancisUrquhart

grabcocque said:

TOPPING said:

As I have been away (still am..but the call of PB...) could someone pls summarise what TKMay's (or DD's or LF's) Brexit settlement is looking like.

Mhhhhhhhhh fudge.....sorry what were you saying....ohhhh more fudge...