politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM blow for Corbyn as he tries to hang on: LAB now 16% beh

Tissue_Price said:

God, this is painful to watch.
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/757914284257054720

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour are going to get pounded like a dockside hooker

@MSmithsonPB:

The England alone figures from latest ICM poll.
CON 47%
LAB 26%
A 21% lead

In Wales the Tories are shown as well ahead of Labour. How likely is that?

IanB2 said:

MyBurningEars said:

rottenborough said:

...and this:

Momentum Rugby ‏@MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago
Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan

I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.

Indeed, as the protomomentumists sang,

The workers' flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold's done the same as Hugh
The workers' flag is brightest blue.

(Plus, as TSE says, I'd like to see the New Official Definition of the word "landslide". I think it might go a long way to explaining why Corbyn is "definitely going to win a landslide".)

The version I have is:

The people's flag is slightly pink
It is not as red as most folks think
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago

With a chorus of:

Don't let the scarlet banner float
We want the middle class's vote
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer
We'll stay in power for many a year

Written during the Blair years, of course

Tissue_Price said:

God, this is painful to watch.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

French style terrorist watch.

Mark Urban Verified account
‏@MarkUrban01 Mark Urban Retweeted Anna Ahronheim
French reports suggest not only that church attackers were known suspects but 1 tagged & allowed out in mornings

SandraM said:

Re: "white" Royal family - Prince Richard of Gloucester's daughter Davina is married to a Maori.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the most stupidest question asked since someone asked if NASA would send astronauts to walk on the Sun.

https://twitter.com/BBCTalkback/status/757884515893248000

They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?

Not just the BBC:

BBC Talkback‏ @BBCTalkback
"Privileged, white and funded" that's what a director of the British Council thinks of the royal family! Do you agree? Call us 03030 80 5555

Privileged? They are the royal family for Pete's sake!

I remember doing a quiz a few years ago, apparently I'm privileged as well, when everyone knows I'm a working class Northerner who is the grandson of immigrants from Pakistan

Tissue_Price said:

God, this is painful to watch.
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/757914284257054720

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is what the Head of Global Estates at the British Council had to say about Prince George:

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/26/british-council-worker-described-prince-george-as-a-fking-dkhead-6029047/

She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.

I bet she was crying into her museli on 24th June...

Scott_P said:

brokenwheel said:

We see all this panic about Zika but we don't see any talk of the real pandemic of contracting Burnham's jelly-spine.

@politicshome: Owen Smith also says Jeremy Corbyn "absolutely" could serve in his Shadow Cabinet.
https://t.co/A9H8wx7qRB https://t.co/GC3DSUgaLN

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandraM said:

Re: "white" Royal family - Prince Richard of Gloucester's daughter Davina is married to a Maori.

Who???

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hervé Morin, the president of the region, said: "We have been living in torment for a long time. It is in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray today - where will it be tomorrow?

"The State must act firmly shutting away all those who are considered dangerous."

taffys said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hervé Morin, the president of the region, said: "We have been living in torment for a long time. It is in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray today - where will it be tomorrow?

"The State must act firmly shutting away all those who are considered dangerous."

I wonder when the first western country will adopt 'a smaller muslim community' as a policy goal.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandraM said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandraM said:

Re: "white" Royal family - Prince Richard of Gloucester's daughter Davina is married to a Maori.

Who???

Do you mean who is the Maori or who is Prince Richard of Gloucester?

Prince Richard of course

SandraM said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandraM said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandraM said:

Re: "white" Royal family - Prince Richard of Gloucester's daughter Davina is married to a Maori.

Who???

Do you mean who is the Maori or who is Prince Richard of Gloucester?

Prince Richard of course

He is the Queen's cousin.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stephen Kinnock used to be a big Whig in the British council did he not?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Perpetual Tory rule is seen as a good thing in Scotland, right?

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/757926498594590721

The independent fiefdom of the Borders

justin124 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.

Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?

Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?

Both of the following would require Labour support:
Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:



If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

The first wouldn't. With a working majority the Conservatives just have to support the vote of no confidence. Then over the next two weeks vote down all attempts to form a new government.

The only substantive effect of the FTPA is to give the opposition parties an additional two weeks in which to gear up for a snap general election.

There is a view that if the Government lost a such a Confidence Vote it would have to resign and that the Leader of the Opposition would be asked to form a Government. He would the have 14 days to win a Confidence Vote himself . Obviously he would fail to do so - but might remain as incumbent caretaker PM during the subsequent general election. Closest precedent is Balfour resigning in December 1905 and Campbell - Bannerman being invited to take office despite the Tories still having a majority of more than 100. He immediately called an election for January 1906 and won by a landslide.

IanB2 said:

MyBurningEars said:

rottenborough said:

...and this:

Momentum Rugby ‏@MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago
Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan

I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.

Indeed, as the protomomentumists sang,

The workers' flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold's done the same as Hugh
The workers' flag is brightest blue.

(Plus, as TSE says, I'd like to see the New Official Definition of the word "landslide". I think it might go a long way to explaining why Corbyn is "definitely going to win a landslide".)

The version I have is:

The people's flag is slightly pink
It is not as red as most folks think
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago

With a chorus of:

Don't let the scarlet banner float
We want the middle class's vote
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer
We'll stay in power for many a year

Written during the Blair years, of course

oxfordsimon said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is what the Head of Global Estates at the British Council had to say about Prince George:

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/26/british-council-worker-described-prince-george-as-a-fking-dkhead-6029047/

She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.

Now I would sign a petition to get her removed from that job. She is clearly unfit to represent our nation.

Dromedary said:

In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".

oxfordsimon said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is what the Head of Global Estates at the British Council had to say about Prince George:

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/26/british-council-worker-described-prince-george-as-a-fking-dkhead-6029047/

She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.

Now I would sign a petition to get her removed from that job. She is clearly unfit to represent our nation.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Always thought that The Royle Family far too white & unreflective of the area they were supposed to live.

FrancisUrquhart said:

DaveDave said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Always thought that The Royle Family far too white & unreflective of the area they were supposed to live.

All immigrants, since William the Conquerer! And lived off taxpayers for centuries.

Talking about the ones from Manchester not the ones from Windsor.

Casino_Royale said:

MattW said:

oxfordsimon said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is what the Head of Global Estates at the British Council had to say about Prince George:

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/26/british-council-worker-described-prince-george-as-a-fking-dkhead-6029047/

She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.

Now I would sign a petition to get her removed from that job. She is clearly unfit to represent our nation.

Well, clearly she's a bit of a d*ckhead herself, given who she modelled her looks on:



:-o

She is white, on £80k a year for a taxpayer funded organisation, lives in a nice pad in town with a progressive musician partner and there are photos of her enjoying large glasses champagne online.

I'd say she was the epitome of 'white privilege' and it's her comments that show her up to be the f**king d**khead, not Prince George.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/757941159167688704

IanB2 said:

MyBurningEars said:

rottenborough said:

...and this:

Momentum Rugby ‏@MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago
Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan

I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.

Indeed, as the protomomentumists sang,

The workers' flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold's done the same as Hugh
The workers' flag is brightest blue.

(Plus, as TSE says, I'd like to see the New Official Definition of the word "landslide". I think it might go a long way to explaining why Corbyn is "definitely going to win a landslide".)

The version I have is:

The people's flag is slightly pink
It is not as red as most folks think
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago

With a chorus of:

Don't let the scarlet banner float
We want the middle class's vote
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer
We'll stay in power for many a year

Written during the Blair years, of course

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/757941159167688704

My MP Wes Streeting's majority in Ilford North is only 589!

Pulpstar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Utterly OT, but the Bugatti Chiron has 1,500 bhp.

*sighs* I bet proper Top Gear would've done some great things with it.

The top speed will be limited to 261 mph for "safety reasons".

Tissue_Price said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/757941159167688704

My MP Wes Streeting's majority in Ilford North is only 589!

It would be 587 if you'd done your duty

Wulfrun_Phil said:

logical_song said:

RobD said:

ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed

Are we believing opinion polls again?

We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.

Tissue_Price said:

rottenborough said:

nunu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.

I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...

Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.

So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.

Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.

Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead.
If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December.
I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!

The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.

I can't believe we are seriously debating an election in late November or early December, unless there is a critical reason why there had to be one (e.g. loss of actual majority). This is the UK. An election in darkest December? Get a grip people!!!

Dromedary said:

Breivik was involved in gang activity on the other side from Muslim gangs when younger. He also seems to have had a very psychologically damaged mother. His sexual identity problems come out in how he expresses admiration for male "warriors" who have their sexual organs removed in order to underline or permanentise their heroic commitment to the Cause. You are right that his Christianity isn't profound. He sees himself as some kind of superman of the will and the intellect, in a way reminiscent of Moors murderer Ian Brady. The ideological side of Breivik's motivation is Norwegian racial nationalism (often not very far under the surface in Norway) warmly wrapped up in a broader European white Christian cultural identity. Picture a speechbubble saying "I'll show my compatriots what's really what", as he gets down to cut-and-pasting from "Fjordman", Melanie Phillips, Bat Ye'or and Jeremy Clarkson, explaining how fighting Eurabia and Eurostan is the way forward. Thus he spews on about the Battle of Vienna in 1683 ("Europe" standing up to "Islam"), which is why he entitled his manifesto "2083: A European Declaration of Independence", with a big cross on the front of it. Prior to committing the killings, he prayed or worshipped in a church, taking the view that "there is no atheism in the trenches". There have been well-known personages in Britain who have taken a similar view of the utility of Christianity, but this margin is too small for us to discuss them

Breivik's freemasonic membership? Maybe he got into it from a "Christian warrior knights" angle. Maybe he needed something a bit different in flavour from his main fantasies, in order to strengthen his commitment to them. (Here is a guy who certainly knows how to train his mind.) Or maybe his controllers sent him into it for reasons of misdirection. Breivik didn't go postal. He prepared for years - that's not going postal. I believe he was in contact with others. The small "IT" business he ran with its international presence was most peculiar. Again - not sufficient space to discuss that here. In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DaveDave said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Always thought that The Royle Family far too white & unreflective of the area they were supposed to live.

All immigrants, since William the Conquerer! And lived off taxpayers for centuries.

Talking about the ones from Manchester not the ones from Windsor.

Windsor? Windsor?

Saxe-Coburg-Gotha!

Luckyguy1983 said:

Dromedary said:

Breivik was involved in gang activity on the other side from Muslim gangs when younger. He also seems to have had a very psychologically damaged mother. His sexual identity problems come out in how he expresses admiration for male "warriors" who have their sexual organs removed in order to underline or permanentise their heroic commitment to the Cause. You are right that his Christianity isn't profound. He sees himself as some kind of superman of the will and the intellect, in a way reminiscent of Moors murderer Ian Brady. The ideological side of Breivik's motivation is Norwegian racial nationalism (often not very far under the surface in Norway) warmly wrapped up in a broader European white Christian cultural identity. Picture a speechbubble saying "I'll show my compatriots what's really what", as he gets down to cut-and-pasting from "Fjordman", Melanie Phillips, Bat Ye'or and Jeremy Clarkson, explaining how fighting Eurabia and Eurostan is the way forward. Thus he spews on about the Battle of Vienna in 1683 ("Europe" standing up to "Islam"), which is why he entitled his manifesto "2083: A European Declaration of Independence", with a big cross on the front of it. Prior to committing the killings, he prayed or worshipped in a church, taking the view that "there is no atheism in the trenches". There have been well-known personages in Britain who have taken a similar view of the utility of Christianity, but this margin is too small for us to discuss them

Breivik's freemasonic membership? Maybe he got into it from a "Christian warrior knights" angle. Maybe he needed something a bit different in flavour from his main fantasies, in order to strengthen his commitment to them. (Here is a guy who certainly knows how to train his mind.) Or maybe his controllers sent him into it for reasons of misdirection. Breivik didn't go postal. He prepared for years - that's not going postal. I believe he was in contact with others. The small "IT" business he ran with its international presence was most peculiar. Again - not sufficient space to discuss that here. In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".

Very interesting, but personally I've always had a strong suspicion of false flag about the whole thing. The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later.